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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Who believes a GE is in the national interest? Says May.
    Not Tory MPs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Very clever and good speech.

    Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities.

    But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    tpfkar said:

    Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.



    The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.

    She'll undoubtedly go backwards from the last vote, the question is how far ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @radsatser said:
    > > > > Oh dear Alastair?
    > > > >
    > > > > Oh, deary, deary me.
    > > > >
    > > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.
    > > >
    > > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.
    > > >
    > > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.
    > > >
    > > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.
    > >
    > > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success.
    >
    > Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega.

    Italy was much more successful when it has a succession of short lived governments that lacked meaningful power.

    The moment it got strong and stable government, economic growth collapsed.

    There's no government like no government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited May 2019
    tpfkar said:

    Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.

    The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.

    She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    A speech which should have been made at Lancaster House 2 years ago. Way, way too late.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal.
    >
    > Weak weak weak.

    I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.

    It's embarrassing...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    It is easy to condemn TM as she has lost her credibility but this speech is complex and I await the media response.

    It is clear that this is the last chance for brexit anytime soon and TM is unlikely to survive the next few weeks anyway
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    dixiedean said:

    A speech which should have been made at Lancaster House 2 years ago. Way, way too late.

    What are those five stages again? The idiocy is that it wasn't her who was in denial, but that she had to or was too weak not to listen to those who were. Or who were so moronic as not to understand what was in play.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    > @BerlinKuwait said:
    > Yea Gods ! Referencing paragraph xyz and addressing the whole bloody thing to Parliament on the Eve of an election. Kamikaze.

    Given the headwind to her vote on Thu seems to be coming from a Faragerly direction, I'm not really sure why she's signalling remainer-flavoured compromise at all, really.

    He'll pounce on the second referendum stuff, especially, in the next 48 hours. The nuance of "it's only a vote, after they've approved Brexit, and there probably aren't the numbers" will be lost.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.

    It's embarrassing...

    Jeez and you lot are still at it!!

    Don't you get it? You can't put Francois in charge who will then mount a platoon attack on the European Parliament. This is reality. Get with the plan, Stan.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > > @radsatser said:
    > > > > > Oh dear Alastair?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Oh, deary, deary me.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.
    > > > >
    > > > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.
    > > > >
    > > > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.
    > > > >
    > > > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.
    > > >
    > > > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success.
    > >
    > > Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega.
    >
    > Italy was much more successful when it has a succession of short lived governments that lacked meaningful power.
    >
    > The moment it got strong and stable government, economic growth collapsed.
    >
    > There's no government like no government.

    So we will look back to the current period of British politics as a golden era?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal.
    > >
    > > Weak weak weak.
    >
    > I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
    >
    > It's embarrassing...

    It needs a bit more consideration than a knee jerk rejection

    TM will not be there much longer but responsible mps must carefully consider the way forward
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
    >
    > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
    >
    > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.

    Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.

    None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.

    That's all Jezza needs to say,
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Isn't this about placing the blame where it rightly belongs - on MPs who keep voting against all options, even the ones they claim to support?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Very clever and good speech.
    >
    > Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities.
    >
    > But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?

    It is a Remain parliament.

    The option will be May's deal v Remain.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    > @AndyJS said:
    > O/T
    >
    > Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?

    I think in the previous thread we reached the conclusion because it was rubbish.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    GIN1138 said:

    None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.

    That's all Jezza needs to say,

    She's shunted it all over to parliament. Her successor gets one vote like every other MP.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @AndyJS said:
    > O/T
    >
    > Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?

    Probably because he's become well annoying......
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @TOPPING said:
    > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
    > >
    > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
    > >
    > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
    >
    > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
    >
    > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
    >
    > That's all Jezza needs to say,

    If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited May 2019
    Great Peston question.

    Edit: not answered, of course.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @KentRising said:
    > > @TOPPING said:
    > > Very clever and good speech.
    > >
    > > Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities.
    > >
    > > But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?
    >
    > It is a Remain parliament.
    >
    > The option will be May's deal v Remain.

    I expect in this climate no deal will have to be on the ballot
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950


    It is a Remain parliament.

    The option will be May's deal v Remain.

    Well it's what I have always thought but it was not spelled out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?

    Could be both
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.


    Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.


    I'm not sure that's healthy.

    I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @TOPPING said:
    > > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
    > > >
    > > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
    > > >
    > > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
    > >
    > > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
    > >
    > > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
    > >
    > > That's all Jezza needs to say,
    >
    > If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed

    Like I said some time ago I just want her gone, followed swiftly by total oblivion for the Tory Party.

    The first stages of that on Thursday.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    TOPPING said:

    What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all.

    I agree. She seems very chipper. Seems like she knows the jig is up in two weeks but wants one last attempt to claim Brexit for herself, no matter the cost.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    > @AndyJS said:
    > O/T
    >
    > Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?

    Because his restaurants are rubbish. Massively overpriced Italian grub that can be had better elsewhere for less.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > @TOPPING said:
    > > > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
    > > > >
    > > > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
    > > > >
    > > > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
    > > >
    > > > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
    > > >
    > > > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
    > > >
    > > > That's all Jezza needs to say,
    > >
    > > If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
    >
    > Like I said some time ago I just want her gone, followed swiftly by total oblivion for the Tory Party.
    >
    > The first stages of that on Thursday.

    You may have a long wait for the second of your wishes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.
    >
    >
    > Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.
    >
    >
    > I'm not sure that's healthy.
    >
    > I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.

    But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
    >
    > Could be both

    With her luck, ultimately neither.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
    > >
    > > Could be both
    >
    > With her luck, ultimately neither.

    Maybe
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Something has changed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Hasn't parliament already voted multiple times to reject another referendum?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.
    >
    >
    > Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.
    >
    >
    > I'm not sure that's healthy.
    >
    > I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.

    What was his motivation for doing it that way? To Keep back Control perhaps?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited May 2019
    > @RobD said:
    > Something has changed?

    TM looks ready to leave and if brexiteers have any sense they should accept this and install her successor by August/September
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    We're not going to leave are we...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    > @Slackbladder said:
    > We're not going to leave are we...

    The danger is we remain in limbo for years
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2019
    > @Slackbladder said:
    > We're not going to leave are we...

    If that happens, the Farage party will be 30%+ in the polls for many many years and the Tories polling 9% a much more regular occurrence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:


    But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.

    Changes to the Persons of Significant Control register have to be made within 14 days, and declarations on funding are retrospective for ordinary political parties as well, so I don't think the structure makes much difference.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.

    Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    What was his motivation for doing it that way? To Keep back Control perhaps?

    Yes, I think it's about control, not disclosure. No pesky members to vote for a different leader or think they should have a say in selecting candidates etc. Come to think of it, given the recent history of the Labour and Conservative Parties, not to mention UKIP, he has a point!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    We're not going to leave are we...

    We are as a No Dealer succeeds Theresa May and says No Deal will be easy.

    It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Also if the conventional wisdom is correct that many CON->TBP switchers actually are happy with May's deal and are just sending a message of frustration that we haven't left yet, I could see that speech bumping a few of them back to CON just on tone.

    By the way, those of you who said May's bizarre "MPs suck and this is all their fault" speech in March was good, compare and contrast with this one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    edited May 2019
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Hasn't parliament already voted multiple times to reject another referendum?

    No, there has never been a proposition for one before parliament.

    What were put were one indicative option (which got the most support but narrowly defeated) and one amendment, opposed by the PV campaign and onto which Labour imposed a whip to abstain. Indicative option carry no weight and an amendment is a suggested variation to the proposition, only becoming one if carried.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    > @GIN1138 said:
    >
    > I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
    >
    > It's embarrassing...

    Today's speech will have caused more of her backbenchers to turn against her. Plus, in 2 days time the Conservatives will suffer their worst election result in 200 years of history.

    So maybe the 1922 will at last act. It is certainly in their gift as to whether she is allowed to remain in place long enough to carry through the plan she announced today. Within the week they may have changed the rules to sanction another leadership election.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > Also if the conventional wisdom is correct that many CON->TBP switchers actually are happy with May's deal and are just sending a message of frustration that we haven't left yet, I could see that speech bumping a few of them back to CON just on tone.
    >
    > By the way, those of you who said May's bizarre "MPs suck and this is all their fault" speech in March was good, compare and contrast with this one.

    If that really is the conventional wisdom, conventions need to be changed; she just killed any lingering chance of the Tories staying in double figures.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Might be enough to sink the sub 10% Tory vote bet, but otherwise doesn’t look as if the world has changed.

    The rumours that May was willing to put the referendum onto the face of the bill but vetoed by cabinet are interesting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, Parliament's also voted repeatedly against a customs union. And May's deal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    Usually the two main parties recover from doing badly at Euro elections, but one wonders whether that'll still happen if they both get around 10% to 15%. Maybe doing as abysmally as that could have a lasting effect.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2019
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
    >


    Yep, tying the WA agreement in with another referendum gives all those Brexiteers who voted for MV3 like Boris, Davis, JRM the perfect cover to vote against this time while Labour doesn't get the CU they were hoping for.

    Any referendum will be dealt with by Theresa Mays successor so it isn't worth the paper its written on anyway which gives Labor the perfect excuse not to vote for it either.

    Like I said earlier, this thing ain't passing.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?

    I think we're way passed that stage......on both counts.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Waste of time from May - another huge defeat looms.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.
    >
    > Changes to the Persons of Significant Control register have to be made within 14 days, and declarations on funding are retrospective for ordinary political parties as well, so I don't think the structure makes much difference.

    That's a fair point.

    My assumption was that BXP would be able to borrow from who it liked and not disclose it because it was a private company (and private companies don't need to disclose their lenders).

    Putting my cynical hat on for a moment, there are a fair number of ways around the significant control (disclosure) hurdle, should you so desire. One can mess around with preferred and convertible equity with provisions and covenants that do not have to be disclosed. And you can always have a bunch of shareholders acting informally in concert.

    Nevertheless, your point that BXP remains subject to the electoral commission's rules is an excellent one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    May’s lost the main Labour advocate of a second referendum.

    https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1130864730061639683?s=21
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    What's she done now?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130859348941463552


    That’s a fair point, that there isn’t any reason why a more sensible and mature PM could not have started from where she has ended up. A lot of her speech was simply trying to justify and explain away her mistaken approach.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    > @williamglenn said:
    > May’s lost the main Labour advocate of a second referendum.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1130864730061639683?s=21

    I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.

    Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.

    Yes I think you're right - it was the key question that Peston asked and by not answering it (another "legal" obligation, say) she will have given Lab an out.

    What has changed, of course is the insurance required by Lab that a successor won't throw out whatever deal has been negotiated by May because parliament will be given a say over three key elements - nature of customs union (ie vote on a temporary one until the next GE so that if Lab wins they can convert it into a permanent one); shape, direction and content of the negotiations for the future agreement; and, of course, 2nd ref.

    Which brings us back to Peston's question.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    > @IanB2 said:
    >
    > I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go.

    She did say being PM is “the job I love”.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Happy City have updated their statement to confirm that Townsley has lost her job.

    https://order-order.com/2019/05/21/charity-policy-head-wants-farage-attacked-acid/

    And she was in charge of ‘social media engagement’....shakes head.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    May’s lost the main Labour advocate of a second referendum.

    He's misunderstood her speech. She is giving parliament the power to do all this.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    For the record, Mrs Stodge and I have eaten at Barbacoa in London and it was excellent. I do agree the Jamie's Italian were often overpriced in what is a very crowded market.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Waste of time from May - another huge defeat looms.

    Larger than MV3 looks certain. What about MV2?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130866110092447745?s=21
    I think that one is probably game, set and match.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > >
    > > I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go.
    >
    > She did say being PM is “the job I love”.

    Hmm, was TM in Icelands Eurovision outfit when she said this?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."

    That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.

    Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > We're not going to leave are we...
    >
    > We are as a No Dealer succeeds Theresa May and says No Deal will be easy.
    >
    > It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.

    It'll be a sorry sight though. Nothing to be proud of. As aberrant in historical terms as the Nazi era is in cultured Germany.

    PS NO, I'm not comparing a putative Brexit Britain with Nazi Germany. I mean that as the Germans are having to rebuild their reputation as a civilised nation, so the UK, or what by then will be left of it, will have to rebuild it's by then shattered reputation for sound government and stability.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited May 2019
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
    >
    > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?

    They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    > @williamglenn said:

    > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.



    Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?

    They simply don't exist.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Oh well....one thing we still do well....fantasy nostalgia....

    https://twitter.com/FocusFeatures/status/1130809882863493120
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."
    >
    > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.

    The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.

    “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."
    > >
    > > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
    >
    > The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.
    >
    > “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”

    Plus the Torygraph, The Mail and Breaking News on the BBC.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Well I'm not voting for this shower of shit come thursday, The Independent Network it is for me.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Does May not do the maths before these silly offers to the house ?

    Daft as a brush.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    Basically May has given up on her own party and it trying to pitch to the opposition. She said as much during the speech. Had she started this way, it would have succeeded, but an opposition with the sniff of blood isn’t going to help her out now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
    > >
    > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
    >
    > They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.

    As someone who spent too much of his youth chasing people off their heads, syringe of sedative in hand, I can confirm that the men in white coats have also been made redundant. We leave the thin blue line to the task nowadays.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @_Anazina_ said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    >
    > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
    >
    >
    >
    > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
    >
    > They simply don't exist.

    The MiGS were meant to be wise. The Tory Party is now full of right wing Tory Boys (eg. Francois) who look too old and fat to be boys, but not wise enough to be called men.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."
    > >
    > > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
    >
    > The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.
    >
    > “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”

    It serves the bastards right if it happens. I think May is one of the poorest PMs in my memory, but she has been treated appallingly by people who are meant to be in her own party.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kjohnw said:

    The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this

    Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.



  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    Re Mike's header. What's new? Labour and Conservative parties seem to be run according to the Fuehrerprinzip too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DOA.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
    > > >
    > > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
    > >
    > > They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
    >
    > As someone who spent too much of his youth chasing people off their heads, syringe of sedative in hand, I can confirm that the men in white coats have also been made redundant. We leave the thin blue line to the task nowadays.

    We're going to need the Met to get her out of Downing Street? Wouldn't surprise me.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The Tory party has gone silly. I feel sorry for May and her successor.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @TGOHF said:
    > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
    >
    > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.

    Wake up. It is fools who think that Brexit was a worthwhile foreign policy pursuit that have made the "shit soup" and wrecked the Tory Party's one USP: economic management. It is the ERG that have properly destroyed not only our international reputation, but the Tory Party as well. Putin sympathising traitors and worms the lot of them.
This discussion has been closed.