Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
She'll undoubtedly go backwards from the last vote, the question is how far ?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @ExiledInScotland said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @radsatser said: > > > > Oh dear Alastair? > > > > > > > > Oh, deary, deary me. > > > > > > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June. > > > > > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny. > > > > > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste. > > > > > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way. > > > > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success. > > Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega.
Italy was much more successful when it has a succession of short lived governments that lacked meaningful power.
The moment it got strong and stable government, economic growth collapsed.
Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal. > > Weak weak weak.
I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
A speech which should have been made at Lancaster House 2 years ago. Way, way too late.
What are those five stages again? The idiocy is that it wasn't her who was in denial, but that she had to or was too weak not to listen to those who were. Or who were so moronic as not to understand what was in play.
> @BerlinKuwait said: > Yea Gods ! Referencing paragraph xyz and addressing the whole bloody thing to Parliament on the Eve of an election. Kamikaze.
Given the headwind to her vote on Thu seems to be coming from a Faragerly direction, I'm not really sure why she's signalling remainer-flavoured compromise at all, really.
He'll pounce on the second referendum stuff, especially, in the next 48 hours. The nuance of "it's only a vote, after they've approved Brexit, and there probably aren't the numbers" will be lost.
I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
It's embarrassing...
Jeez and you lot are still at it!!
Don't you get it? You can't put Francois in charge who will then mount a platoon attack on the European Parliament. This is reality. Get with the plan, Stan.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @ExiledInScotland said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > @radsatser said: > > > > > Oh dear Alastair? > > > > > > > > > > Oh, deary, deary me. > > > > > > > > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June. > > > > > > > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny. > > > > > > > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste. > > > > > > > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way. > > > > > > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success. > > > > Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega. > > Italy was much more successful when it has a succession of short lived governments that lacked meaningful power. > > The moment it got strong and stable government, economic growth collapsed. > > There's no government like no government.
So we will look back to the current period of British politics as a golden era?
> @GIN1138 said: > > @ExiledInScotland said: > > It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal. > > > > Weak weak weak. > > I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all. > > It's embarrassing...
It needs a bit more consideration than a knee jerk rejection
TM will not be there much longer but responsible mps must carefully consider the way forward
> @TOPPING said: > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal. > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it. > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
> @TOPPING said: > Very clever and good speech. > > Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities. > > But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?
> @GIN1138 said: > > @TOPPING said: > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal. > > > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it. > > > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that. > > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this. > > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel. > > That's all Jezza needs to say,
If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all.
> @KentRising said: > > @TOPPING said: > > Very clever and good speech. > > > > Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities. > > > > But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be? > > It is a Remain parliament. > > The option will be May's deal v Remain.
I expect in this climate no deal will have to be on the ballot
I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.
Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.
I'm not sure that's healthy.
I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @TOPPING said: > > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal. > > > > > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it. > > > > > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that. > > > > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this. > > > > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel. > > > > That's all Jezza needs to say, > > If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
Like I said some time ago I just want her gone, followed swiftly by total oblivion for the Tory Party.
What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all.
I agree. She seems very chipper. Seems like she knows the jig is up in two weeks but wants one last attempt to claim Brexit for herself, no matter the cost.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal. > > > > > > > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it. > > > > > > > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that. > > > > > > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this. > > > > > > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel. > > > > > > That's all Jezza needs to say, > > > > If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed > > Like I said some time ago I just want her gone, followed swiftly by total oblivion for the Tory Party. > > The first stages of that on Thursday.
You may have a long wait for the second of your wishes
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light. > > > Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view. > > > I'm not sure that's healthy. > > I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.
But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10? > > Could be both
> @Jonathan said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10? > > > > Could be both > > With her luck, ultimately neither.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light. > > > Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view. > > > I'm not sure that's healthy. > > I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.
What was his motivation for doing it that way? To Keep back Control perhaps?
But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.
Changes to the Persons of Significant Control register have to be made within 14 days, and declarations on funding are retrospective for ordinary political parties as well, so I don't think the structure makes much difference.
Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
What was his motivation for doing it that way? To Keep back Control perhaps?
Yes, I think it's about control, not disclosure. No pesky members to vote for a different leader or think they should have a say in selecting candidates etc. Come to think of it, given the recent history of the Labour and Conservative Parties, not to mention UKIP, he has a point!
Also if the conventional wisdom is correct that many CON->TBP switchers actually are happy with May's deal and are just sending a message of frustration that we haven't left yet, I could see that speech bumping a few of them back to CON just on tone.
By the way, those of you who said May's bizarre "MPs suck and this is all their fault" speech in March was good, compare and contrast with this one.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Hasn't parliament already voted multiple times to reject another referendum?
No, there has never been a proposition for one before parliament.
What were put were one indicative option (which got the most support but narrowly defeated) and one amendment, opposed by the PV campaign and onto which Labour imposed a whip to abstain. Indicative option carry no weight and an amendment is a suggested variation to the proposition, only becoming one if carried.
> @GIN1138 said: > > I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all. > > It's embarrassing...
Today's speech will have caused more of her backbenchers to turn against her. Plus, in 2 days time the Conservatives will suffer their worst election result in 200 years of history.
So maybe the 1922 will at last act. It is certainly in their gift as to whether she is allowed to remain in place long enough to carry through the plan she announced today. Within the week they may have changed the rules to sanction another leadership election.
> @Stereotomy said: > Also if the conventional wisdom is correct that many CON->TBP switchers actually are happy with May's deal and are just sending a message of frustration that we haven't left yet, I could see that speech bumping a few of them back to CON just on tone. > > By the way, those of you who said May's bizarre "MPs suck and this is all their fault" speech in March was good, compare and contrast with this one.
If that really is the conventional wisdom, conventions need to be changed; she just killed any lingering chance of the Tories staying in double figures.
Usually the two main parties recover from doing badly at Euro elections, but one wonders whether that'll still happen if they both get around 10% to 15%. Maybe doing as abysmally as that could have a lasting effect.
> @Stereotomy said: > Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted. >
Yep, tying the WA agreement in with another referendum gives all those Brexiteers who voted for MV3 like Boris, Davis, JRM the perfect cover to vote against this time while Labour doesn't get the CU they were hoping for.
Any referendum will be dealt with by Theresa Mays successor so it isn't worth the paper its written on anyway which gives Labor the perfect excuse not to vote for it either.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time. > > Changes to the Persons of Significant Control register have to be made within 14 days, and declarations on funding are retrospective for ordinary political parties as well, so I don't think the structure makes much difference.
That's a fair point.
My assumption was that BXP would be able to borrow from who it liked and not disclose it because it was a private company (and private companies don't need to disclose their lenders).
Putting my cynical hat on for a moment, there are a fair number of ways around the significant control (disclosure) hurdle, should you so desire. One can mess around with preferred and convertible equity with provisions and covenants that do not have to be disclosed. And you can always have a bunch of shareholders acting informally in concert.
Nevertheless, your point that BXP remains subject to the electoral commission's rules is an excellent one.
That’s a fair point, that there isn’t any reason why a more sensible and mature PM could not have started from where she has ended up. A lot of her speech was simply trying to justify and explain away her mistaken approach.
Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
Yes I think you're right - it was the key question that Peston asked and by not answering it (another "legal" obligation, say) she will have given Lab an out.
What has changed, of course is the insurance required by Lab that a successor won't throw out whatever deal has been negotiated by May because parliament will be given a say over three key elements - nature of customs union (ie vote on a temporary one until the next GE so that if Lab wins they can convert it into a permanent one); shape, direction and content of the negotiations for the future agreement; and, of course, 2nd ref.
For the record, Mrs Stodge and I have eaten at Barbacoa in London and it was excellent. I do agree the Jamie's Italian were often overpriced in what is a very crowded market.
> @williamglenn said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go. > > She did say being PM is “the job I love”.
Hmm, was TM in Icelands Eurovision outfit when she said this?
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > We're not going to leave are we... > > We are as a No Dealer succeeds Theresa May and says No Deal will be easy. > > It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.
It'll be a sorry sight though. Nothing to be proud of. As aberrant in historical terms as the Nazi era is in cultured Germany.
PS NO, I'm not comparing a putative Brexit Britain with Nazi Germany. I mean that as the Germans are having to rebuild their reputation as a civilised nation, so the UK, or what by then will be left of it, will have to rebuild it's by then shattered reputation for sound government and stability.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @williamglenn said: > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever. > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
> @ralphmalph said: > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit." > > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.
“Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
> @IanB2 said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit." > > > > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday. > > The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto. > > “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
Plus the Torygraph, The Mail and Breaking News on the BBC.
The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
Basically May has given up on her own party and it trying to pitch to the opposition. She said as much during the speech. Had she started this way, it would have succeeded, but an opposition with the sniff of blood isn’t going to help her out now.
> @dixiedean said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever. > > > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme? > > They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
As someone who spent too much of his youth chasing people off their heads, syringe of sedative in hand, I can confirm that the men in white coats have also been made redundant. We leave the thin blue line to the task nowadays.
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever. > > > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme? > > They simply don't exist.
The MiGS were meant to be wise. The Tory Party is now full of right wing Tory Boys (eg. Francois) who look too old and fat to be boys, but not wise enough to be called men.
> @IanB2 said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit." > > > > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday. > > The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto. > > “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
It serves the bastards right if it happens. I think May is one of the poorest PMs in my memory, but she has been treated appallingly by people who are meant to be in her own party.
The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> @Foxy said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever. > > > > > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme? > > > > They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats. > > As someone who spent too much of his youth chasing people off their heads, syringe of sedative in hand, I can confirm that the men in white coats have also been made redundant. We leave the thin blue line to the task nowadays.
We're going to need the Met to get her out of Downing Street? Wouldn't surprise me.
> @TGOHF said: > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
Wake up. It is fools who think that Brexit was a worthwhile foreign policy pursuit that have made the "shit soup" and wrecked the Tory Party's one USP: economic management. It is the ERG that have properly destroyed not only our international reputation, but the Tory Party as well. Putin sympathising traitors and worms the lot of them.
Comments
Not Tory MPs.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15/majority-of-europeans-expect-end-of-eu-within-20-years
Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities.
But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?
> > @ExiledInScotland said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @radsatser said:
> > > > Oh dear Alastair?
> > > >
> > > > Oh, deary, deary me.
> > > >
> > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.
> > >
> > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.
> > >
> > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.
> > >
> > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.
> >
> > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success.
>
> Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega.
Italy was much more successful when it has a succession of short lived governments that lacked meaningful power.
The moment it got strong and stable government, economic growth collapsed.
There's no government like no government.
> It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal.
>
> Weak weak weak.
I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
It's embarrassing...
It is clear that this is the last chance for brexit anytime soon and TM is unlikely to survive the next few weeks anyway
> Yea Gods ! Referencing paragraph xyz and addressing the whole bloody thing to Parliament on the Eve of an election. Kamikaze.
Given the headwind to her vote on Thu seems to be coming from a Faragerly direction, I'm not really sure why she's signalling remainer-flavoured compromise at all, really.
He'll pounce on the second referendum stuff, especially, in the next 48 hours. The nuance of "it's only a vote, after they've approved Brexit, and there probably aren't the numbers" will be lost.
Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?
Don't you get it? You can't put Francois in charge who will then mount a platoon attack on the European Parliament. This is reality. Get with the plan, Stan.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @ExiledInScotland said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > @radsatser said:
> > > > > Oh dear Alastair?
> > > > >
> > > > > Oh, deary, deary me.
> > > > >
> > > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.
> > > >
> > > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.
> > > >
> > > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.
> > > >
> > > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.
> > >
> > > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success.
> >
> > Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega.
>
> Italy was much more successful when it has a succession of short lived governments that lacked meaningful power.
>
> The moment it got strong and stable government, economic growth collapsed.
>
> There's no government like no government.
So we will look back to the current period of British politics as a golden era?
> > @ExiledInScotland said:
> > It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal.
> >
> > Weak weak weak.
>
> I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
>
> It's embarrassing...
It needs a bit more consideration than a knee jerk rejection
TM will not be there much longer but responsible mps must carefully consider the way forward
> Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
>
> The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
>
> She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
That's all Jezza needs to say,
> Very clever and good speech.
>
> Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities.
>
> But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?
It is a Remain parliament.
The option will be May's deal v Remain.
> O/T
>
> Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?
I think in the previous thread we reached the conclusion because it was rubbish.
> O/T
>
> Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?
Probably because he's become well annoying......
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
> >
> > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
> >
> > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
>
> Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
>
> None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
>
> That's all Jezza needs to say,
If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
Edit: not answered, of course.
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Very clever and good speech.
> >
> > Not so much complete capitulation (although it is that) but an acknowledgement of the realities.
> >
> > But what if parliament votes for a second referendum on the deal? What will the options be?
>
> It is a Remain parliament.
>
> The option will be May's deal v Remain.
I expect in this climate no deal will have to be on the ballot
> Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
Could be both
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @TOPPING said:
> > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
> > >
> > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
> > >
> > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
> >
> > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
> >
> > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
> >
> > That's all Jezza needs to say,
>
> If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
Like I said some time ago I just want her gone, followed swiftly by total oblivion for the Tory Party.
The first stages of that on Thursday.
> O/T
>
> Why has Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain collapsed?
Because his restaurants are rubbish. Massively overpriced Italian grub that can be had better elsewhere for less.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @TOPPING said:
> > > > Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.
> > > >
> > > > The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
> > > >
> > > > She's given parliament and hence Lab the option to shape the future agreement. So it will need some nimble movement from Corbyn to refuse that.
> > >
> > > Theresa May will be "departing" no later than the autumn and whatever she says now she can't bind the hands of her successor or a future government with any of this.
> > >
> > > None of it is worth the paper its written on. Pure, unadulterated drivel.
> > >
> > > That's all Jezza needs to say,
> >
> > If it passes in the next few weeks brexit is still on track. If not brexit looks doomed
>
> Like I said some time ago I just want her gone, followed swiftly by total oblivion for the Tory Party.
>
> The first stages of that on Thursday.
You may have a long wait for the second of your wishes
> I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.
>
>
> Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.
>
>
> I'm not sure that's healthy.
>
> I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.
But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
>
> Could be both
With her luck, ultimately neither.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
> >
> > Could be both
>
> With her luck, ultimately neither.
Maybe
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130859348941463552
Nick agrees with me.
> I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.
>
>
> Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.
>
>
> I'm not sure that's healthy.
>
> I don't think that is right. The ownership of a limited company can't be hidden (and remember they now can't hide behind trusts or offshore companies, given the Persons of Significant Control rules). And I don't think the structure gets them out of financial declarations under electoral law, given that they are registered with the Electoral Commission.
What was his motivation for doing it that way? To Keep back Control perhaps?
> Something has changed?
TM looks ready to leave and if brexiteers have any sense they should accept this and install her successor by August/September
> We're not going to leave are we...
The danger is we remain in limbo for years
> We're not going to leave are we...
If that happens, the Farage party will be 30%+ in the polls for many many years and the Tories polling 9% a much more regular occurrence.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.
By the way, those of you who said May's bizarre "MPs suck and this is all their fault" speech in March was good, compare and contrast with this one.
> Hasn't parliament already voted multiple times to reject another referendum?
No, there has never been a proposition for one before parliament.
What were put were one indicative option (which got the most support but narrowly defeated) and one amendment, opposed by the PV campaign and onto which Labour imposed a whip to abstain. Indicative option carry no weight and an amendment is a suggested variation to the proposition, only becoming one if carried.
>
> I don't know why the 1922 doesn't put an end to this once and for all.
>
> It's embarrassing...
Today's speech will have caused more of her backbenchers to turn against her. Plus, in 2 days time the Conservatives will suffer their worst election result in 200 years of history.
So maybe the 1922 will at last act. It is certainly in their gift as to whether she is allowed to remain in place long enough to carry through the plan she announced today. Within the week they may have changed the rules to sanction another leadership election.
> Also if the conventional wisdom is correct that many CON->TBP switchers actually are happy with May's deal and are just sending a message of frustration that we haven't left yet, I could see that speech bumping a few of them back to CON just on tone.
>
> By the way, those of you who said May's bizarre "MPs suck and this is all their fault" speech in March was good, compare and contrast with this one.
If that really is the conventional wisdom, conventions need to be changed; she just killed any lingering chance of the Tories staying in double figures.
The rumours that May was willing to put the referendum onto the face of the bill but vetoed by cabinet are interesting.
> Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
>
Yep, tying the WA agreement in with another referendum gives all those Brexiteers who voted for MV3 like Boris, Davis, JRM the perfect cover to vote against this time while Labour doesn't get the CU they were hoping for.
Any referendum will be dealt with by Theresa Mays successor so it isn't worth the paper its written on anyway which gives Labor the perfect excuse not to vote for it either.
Like I said earlier, this thing ain't passing.
> Is this about what is right for Britain or is this actually about giving May a dignified successful exit from Number 10?
I think we're way passed that stage......on both counts.
> But declarations regarding ownership (and funding) are not real time.
>
> Changes to the Persons of Significant Control register have to be made within 14 days, and declarations on funding are retrospective for ordinary political parties as well, so I don't think the structure makes much difference.
That's a fair point.
My assumption was that BXP would be able to borrow from who it liked and not disclose it because it was a private company (and private companies don't need to disclose their lenders).
Putting my cynical hat on for a moment, there are a fair number of ways around the significant control (disclosure) hurdle, should you so desire. One can mess around with preferred and convertible equity with provisions and covenants that do not have to be disclosed. And you can always have a bunch of shareholders acting informally in concert.
Nevertheless, your point that BXP remains subject to the electoral commission's rules is an excellent one.
https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1130864730061639683?s=21
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130859348941463552
That’s a fair point, that there isn’t any reason why a more sensible and mature PM could not have started from where she has ended up. A lot of her speech was simply trying to justify and explain away her mistaken approach.
> May’s lost the main Labour advocate of a second referendum.
>
> https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1130864730061639683?s=21
I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go.
What has changed, of course is the insurance required by Lab that a successor won't throw out whatever deal has been negotiated by May because parliament will be given a say over three key elements - nature of customs union (ie vote on a temporary one until the next GE so that if Lab wins they can convert it into a permanent one); shape, direction and content of the negotiations for the future agreement; and, of course, 2nd ref.
Which brings us back to Peston's question.
>
> I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go.
She did say being PM is “the job I love”.
https://order-order.com/2019/05/21/charity-policy-head-wants-farage-attacked-acid/
And she was in charge of ‘social media engagement’....shakes head.
For the record, Mrs Stodge and I have eaten at Barbacoa in London and it was excellent. I do agree the Jamie's Italian were often overpriced in what is a very crowded market.
> Waste of time from May - another huge defeat looms.
Larger than MV3 looks certain. What about MV2?
> https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130866110092447745?s=21
I think that one is probably game, set and match.
> > @IanB2 said:
> >
> > I reckon she thinks that if it carries, she doesn’t have to go.
>
> She did say being PM is “the job I love”.
Hmm, was TM in Icelands Eurovision outfit when she said this?
That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
> The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
> We're not going to leave are we...
>
> We are as a No Dealer succeeds Theresa May and says No Deal will be easy.
>
> It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.
It'll be a sorry sight though. Nothing to be proud of. As aberrant in historical terms as the Nazi era is in cultured Germany.
PS NO, I'm not comparing a putative Brexit Britain with Nazi Germany. I mean that as the Germans are having to rebuild their reputation as a civilised nation, so the UK, or what by then will be left of it, will have to rebuild it's by then shattered reputation for sound government and stability.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
>
> Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
https://twitter.com/FocusFeatures/status/1130809882863493120
> The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."
>
> That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.
“Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."
> >
> > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
>
> The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.
>
> “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
Plus the Torygraph, The Mail and Breaking News on the BBC.
Daft as a brush.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
> >
> > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
>
> They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
As someone who spent too much of his youth chasing people off their heads, syringe of sedative in hand, I can confirm that the men in white coats have also been made redundant. We leave the thin blue line to the task nowadays.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
>
>
>
> Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
>
> They simply don't exist.
The MiGS were meant to be wise. The Tory Party is now full of right wing Tory Boys (eg. Francois) who look too old and fat to be boys, but not wise enough to be called men.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > The headlines are going to be "May offers 2nd Ref on Brexit."
> >
> > That will cost the Torys votes on Thursday.
>
> The Guardian is there already. May clearly wanted it in the Bill as her last throw of the dice, and has done her best to go to the media over the heads of the Cabinet veto.
>
> “Brexit: new bill to include MPs' vote on second referendum, May says – live news”
It serves the bastards right if it happens. I think May is one of the poorest PMs in my memory, but she has been treated appallingly by people who are meant to be in her own party.
https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1130870305436721153?s=21
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > The chances of May resigning early next week must be higher than ever.
> > >
> > > Whatever happened to the men in grey suits...did they lose their roles during the austerity programme?
> >
> > They've been replaced by cheaper men in white coats.
>
> As someone who spent too much of his youth chasing people off their heads, syringe of sedative in hand, I can confirm that the men in white coats have also been made redundant. We leave the thin blue line to the task nowadays.
We're going to need the Met to get her out of Downing Street? Wouldn't surprise me.
> The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
>
> Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
Wake up. It is fools who think that Brexit was a worthwhile foreign policy pursuit that have made the "shit soup" and wrecked the Tory Party's one USP: economic management. It is the ERG that have properly destroyed not only our international reputation, but the Tory Party as well. Putin sympathising traitors and worms the lot of them.