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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

Mike Greene, the Brexit Party candidate for the Peterborough by-election, reportedly met Nigel Farage for the first time the night before he was unveiled as the new party’s representative. You have to hope that he does better due diligence on the companies he invests in.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    First like TBP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    Second like Labour, maybe.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)

    The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.

    Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.

    It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.

    Oh - and good post, Alastair. I expect you will be showered with bouquets by the usual suspects. ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    Nigel Farage's problem is that he's always surrounded himself with people who believe in Brexit. It's no wonder he can't reason with them. Who could?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Reckless seems happy to jump back on the Farage bandwagon...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    To be fair, unlike UKIP at least the Brexit Party doesn't claim to be anything other than a one-man band set up by the bandleader*.

    * Although the woman who actually set it up resigned from it eight weeks later and has since been airbrushed out of the history.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,012
    There are no more opponents of Farage's course and, if there are, they are mentally ill and need to be sent off for clinical examination. Farage is everywhere, Farage is everything, Farage is absolute, and Farage is indispensable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Just an aside, but if Remain had spent less time wibbling about Farage and more focusing on arguments that weren't apocalyptic, they would've won.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Fuhrerprinzip appears to be very firmly established already within the Brexit Party.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    On the other hand, for would-be defectors the issue is a bit more complex. Do they throw in their lot with Farage - accepting, as Alastair points out, that the price is unconditional submission to his will - or do they try to mould the Conservative Party into something positioned in much the same place as the Brexit Party? It's hard to see how there can be room for two competing parties in the same space.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. 124, that's a wrongheaded post, and you should be ashamed of yourself.

    It's spelt Führerprinzip.

    [And fixating on Farage is a mistake...].
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > On the other hand, for would-be defectors the issue is a bit more complex. Do they throw in their lot with Farage - accepting, as Alastair points out, that the price is unconditional submission to his will - or do they try to mould the Conservative Party into something positioned in much the same place as the Brexit Party? It's hard to see how there can be room for two competing parties in the same space.
    -----------

    Farage clearly thinks there's a gap for the right to do a variant of the Republicans' Southern strategy in Britain, but perhaps the Tory brand is too toxic to pull it off, in which case his party makes sense.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    According to Chuka:

    the fall of the value of the pound after the referendum vote has made the products that British Steel sells more expensive

    Err...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/may/21/brexit-latest-news-developments-cabinet-to-discuss-latest-brexit-offer-to-mps-as-ministers-feud-in-public-over-no-deal-live-news
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)

    The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.

    Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.

    It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.

    By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    edited May 2019
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)
    >
    > The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.
    >
    > Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.
    >
    > It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.
    >
    > Oh - and good post, Alastair. I expect you will be showered with bouquets by the usual suspects. ;)

    I'm fairly sure Farage's outrage is entirely synthetic; what could fit his narrative better than the chance to claim that the dark anti democratic forces of the deep state are trying to sabotage his plan to stand up for the little guy?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,220
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Just an aside, but if Remain had spent less time wibbling about Farage and more focusing on arguments that weren't apocalyptic, they would've won.

    Just an aside, but if Leave had spent more time focusing on arguments that were realistic, they wouldn't have won.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,252
    Good article from Alastair and wise words for any would-be MP defectors (of which there will no doubt be some if polls remain as they are).

    However, I would take issue with this:

    <I>For it is not a party, but a company controlled by Nigel Farage. He appoints the board. There are no members. Those registered supporters are the fools who are easily parted from their money – they get nothing for it.</I>

    Firstly, while the Brexit Party might be registered as a company, it is also a political party. It is registered with the Electoral Commission and is a machine for promoting a political policy (or presumably, in time, set of policies) and for electing individuals to office: that is what a Party is.

    And also, we're in danger of looking at party membership too transactionally i.e. what does the member get for their cash. I don't think this the right way to do so. People join or register as supporters or activists or whatever because they believe in what the party (or Farage, if you prefer) stands for. They don't expect to get anything back other than the chance to implement a political platform they agree with.

    In any case, the Brexit party must develop some kind of localism simply because Farage cannot do everything himself. He might retain power to overrule anything but come next year's local elections, local members (for want of a better term) will no doubt decide who stands where.

    However, at a national level, Alastair's points are right: those who do have to interact with Farage because of the nature of their roles will find that it's his way or the highway.

    This isn't entirely without risk to Farage: he cannot regard every MP who defects as expendable or else he destroys his party's credibility. Nonetheless, that's to get a long way ahead of ourselves: they don't have any MPs yet and Brexit might well occur as soon as October.

    Presumably, Farage has decided on that authoritarian model based in part on his experiences of leading UKIP's ragbag army, and on the unhappy experiences of his successors in that role. When you build a movement based on appealing to the discontented, it does make some sense to minimise the opportunity for them to express discontent internally.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138

    According to Chuka:

    the fall of the value of the pound after the referendum vote has made the products that British Steel sells more expensive

    Err...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/may/21/brexit-latest-news-developments-cabinet-to-discuss-latest-brexit-offer-to-mps-as-ministers-feud-in-public-over-no-deal-live-news

    Is he thick or just stupid ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. Doof, *sighs*

    And if Remain had done a better job taking its focus from Farage and making the arguments (and countering those you say were unrealistic on the other side), likewise.

    I did offer this sort of advice at the time, regarding the 'back of the queue' (some were too busy tittering with glee) and 'Nigel Farage's Little England' comments (apparently I was wrong to be annoyed). Still, ignore it if you like. Focus on Farage. Lose again, and then be annoyed. Again.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @radsatser said:
    > Oh dear Alastair?
    >
    > Oh, deary, deary me.
    >
    > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.

    It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.

    If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.

    The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    Was anyone on here seriously considering signing up to the Brexit party?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)
    >
    > The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.
    >
    > Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.
    >
    > It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.
    >
    > By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.

    Any competent regulator would know exactly how to deal with that. I have my doubts about the competence of this particular regulator. So you may be right in your analysis.

    Nonetheless, even if it is ignored for now and some time to come, these are signs of an approach to politics which is, at a minimum, antipathetic to the sort of scrutiny which should be the hallmark of an open democratic country and of the political parties within it. They are worrying signs, to my mind, and just because people won't listen to them now does not mean that those raising the concerns are wrong to do so.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @radsatser said:
    > > Oh dear Alastair?
    > >
    > > Oh, deary, deary me.
    > >
    > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.
    >
    > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.
    >
    > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.
    >
    > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.

    When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    Cyclefree said:

    > @brokenwheel said:

    > Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)

    >

    > The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.

    >

    > Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.

    >

    > It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.

    >

    > By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.



    Any competent regulator would know exactly how to deal with that. I have my doubts about the competence of this particular regulator. So you may be right in your analysis.



    Nonetheless, even if it is ignored for now and some time to come, these are signs of an approach to politics which is, at a minimum, antipathetic to the sort of scrutiny which should be the hallmark of an open democratic country and of the political parties within it. They are worrying signs, to my mind, and just because people won't listen to them now does not mean that those raising the concerns are wrong to do so.

    No problem with scrutiny. My problem is when scrutiny is seemingly only applied to one side. Where are the investigations over Labour’s PayPal button, or the People’s Vote, or the Led by Donkeys apparent disregard for spending limits?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    Looks like Oakeshott has deleted her tweet. Nevertheless good to see the electoral commission checking proper procedure has been followed and well done to the Brexit party for coming through with a clean bill of health.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884
    This thread - excellent as always - is correct but misses an important point. The purpose of Nigel Farage is not to run the country - heaven forbid - but to be the catalyst by which ordinary people can rediscover a bit of a voice in matters after far too long in which popular opinion has been taken for granted. He has never got very close to being elected to parliament because people won't put him there. And as things stand they certainly won't put his party anywhere near power. But people do value his unique, Mr Toad like, contribution to public life and keep electing him as a means of saying something important but without granting him personal power.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,012

    Mr. 124, that's a wrongheaded post, and you should be ashamed of yourself.

    It's spelt Führerprinzip.

    [And fixating on Farage is a mistake...].

    Peter Oborne once used it to describe New Labour's seduction of Simon Heffer and Paul Johnson.

    The central intellectual problem for Heffer and Johnson was how to reconcile their avowed unionism and hatred of Europe with support for the most pro-European prime minister since Heath. Blair and Campbell did their best to solve it for them by invoking the Führerprinzip. Tony Blair's famous comment at Prime Minister's Questions — 'I lead my party. He follows his' — was aimed just as much at the Thatcherite right as at the Labour party

    https://www.questia.com/magazine/1P3-45215941/alastair-campbell-s-tory-poodles
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    > @algarkirk said:
    > This thread - excellent as always - is correct but misses an important point. The purpose of Nigel Farage is not to run the country - heaven forbid - but to be the catalyst by which ordinary people can rediscover a bit of a voice in matters after far too long in which popular opinion has been taken for granted. He has never got very close to being elected to parliament because people won't put him there. And as things stand they certainly won't put his party anywhere near power. But people do value his unique, Mr Toad like, contribution to public life and keep electing him as a means of saying something important but without granting him personal power.

    +1
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @RobD said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    >
    > > Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.
    >
    >
    >
    > Any competent regulator would know exactly how to deal with that. I have my doubts about the competence of this particular regulator. So you may be right in your analysis.
    >
    >
    >
    > Nonetheless, even if it is ignored for now and some time to come, these are signs of an approach to politics which is, at a minimum, antipathetic to the sort of scrutiny which should be the hallmark of an open democratic country and of the political parties within it. They are worrying signs, to my mind, and just because people won't listen to them now does not mean that those raising the concerns are wrong to do so.
    >
    > No problem with scrutiny. My problem is when scrutiny is seemingly only applied to one side. Where are the investigations over Labour’s PayPal button, or the People’s Vote, or the Led by Donkeys apparent disregard for spending limits?

    I don't know why the EC isn't investigating them. They should. But as I said I have not been particularly impressed with the EC's record.

    You may not have a problem with scrutiny. But TBP seems to. Saying in response to scrutiny "Why aren't you going after the other guy?" is pathetic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    > @Ploppikins said:
    > Was anyone on here seriously considering signing up to the Brexit party?

    No.

    Not for a moment.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @algarkirk said:
    > This thread - excellent as always - is correct but misses an important point. The purpose of Nigel Farage is not to run the country - heaven forbid - but to be the catalyst by which ordinary people can rediscover a bit of a voice in matters after far too long in which popular opinion has been taken for granted. He has never got very close to being elected to parliament because people won't put him there. And as things stand they certainly won't put his party anywhere near power. But people do value his unique, Mr Toad like, contribution to public life and keep electing him as a means of saying something important but without granting him personal power.

    "The purpose of Nigel Farage is not to run the country". Are you sure about that?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    Cyclefree said:

    > @RobD said:

    > > @brokenwheel said:

    >

    > > Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny? (Re the Electoral Commission's visit.)

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.

    >

    >

    >

    > Any competent regulator would know exactly how to deal with that. I have my doubts about the competence of this particular regulator. So you may be right in your analysis.

    >

    >

    >

    > Nonetheless, even if it is ignored for now and some time to come, these are signs of an approach to politics which is, at a minimum, antipathetic to the sort of scrutiny which should be the hallmark of an open democratic country and of the political parties within it. They are worrying signs, to my mind, and just because people won't listen to them now does not mean that those raising the concerns are wrong to do so.

    >

    > No problem with scrutiny. My problem is when scrutiny is seemingly only applied to one side. Where are the investigations over Labour’s PayPal button, or the People’s Vote, or the Led by Donkeys apparent disregard for spending limits?



    I don't know why the EC isn't investigating them. They should. But as I said I have not been particularly impressed with the EC's record.



    You may not have a problem with scrutiny. But TBP seems to. Saying in response to scrutiny "Why aren't you going after the other guy?" is pathetic.

    Is it, especially when the claims are about as tenuous as those levelled against TBP. Why are they focusing on this set of claims and not the other?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    > @eristdoof said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Just an aside, but if Remain had spent less time wibbling about Farage and more focusing on arguments that weren't apocalyptic, they would've won.
    >
    > Just an aside, but if Leave had spent more time focusing on arguments that were realistic, they wouldn't have won.
    >

    If you want to win at something, it's probably better to focus on what you are doing, rather than on what you think the other side should or should not be doing.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    “Shout, shout, shout out his name...”

    “FAAAARRRRAAAAAGGGGGE!” 😡 😡😡

    https://youtu.be/t4zYlOU7Fpk
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Farage doesn't like anybody else playing with his train set. He'd rather it resembled the Market Deeping Model Railway Club set up at Stamford, than let anyone else have a go too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-48348512
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @radsatser said:
    > > > Oh dear Alastair?
    > > >
    > > > Oh, deary, deary me.
    > > >
    > > > Never mind it will soon all be over, and the nasty man will leave establishment sychophants alone to get back to normal. Well at least until the 6th June.
    > >
    > > It is precisely because, if the polls are to be believed, Farage is not going to disappear that it is important for him and his record to be put under scrutiny.
    > >
    > > If he really wants to be a politician and revolutionise us all, he would welcome such scrutiny not view it as some form of lese majeste.
    > >
    > > The fact that his reaction and that of his supporters is to attack those wishing to scrutinise him and to shout "conspiracy" and "victim" is in itself telling - and not in a flattering way.
    >
    > When people talk about Farage I think of Berlusconi. Lots of people hated him, they tried to stop him, and they (mostly) failed. Being flawed and having more ego than most of us doesn't disbar him from success.

    Berlusconi was much more admired in Italy than people outside Italy realised. That's why he was successful; that - and the total collapse of the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. But even though he got power Berlusconi mostly failed. His time in office was wasted time for Italy. One reason, in fact, why Italy has now turned to the likes of the 5-Star Movement and La Lega.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @eristdoof said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Just an aside, but if Remain had spent less time wibbling about Farage and more focusing on arguments that weren't apocalyptic, they would've won.
    >
    > Just an aside, but if Leave had spent more time focusing on arguments that were realistic, they wouldn't have won.
    >
    If Leave had spent a bit more time coming up with a workable plan for leaving we wouldn't be where we are now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.



    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    It won't be either !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430

    Farage doesn't like anybody else playing with his train set. He'd rather it resembled the Market Deeping Model Railway Club set up at Stamford, than let anyone else have a go too.



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-48348512

    Sad.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    Cyclefree said:

    > @eristdoof said:

    > > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > > Just an aside, but if Remain had spent less time wibbling about Farage and more focusing on arguments that weren't apocalyptic, they would've won.

    >

    > Just an aside, but if Leave had spent more time focusing on arguments that were realistic, they wouldn't have won.

    >

    If Leave had spent a bit more time coming up with a workable plan for leaving we wouldn't be where we are now.

    Ah, if only the civil service weren’t banned from preparing for it.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,286
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.
    >
    >
    >
    > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
    >
    > It won't be either !

    That feels like a "struck by lightning"/"winning a lottery jackpot" comparison :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.
    >
    >
    >
    > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
    >
    > It won't be either !

    True.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,337
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.
    >
    >
    >
    > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
    >
    > It won't be either !

    Agreed. And thankfully. Neither man inspires confidence in terms of high office.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    edited May 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.


    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    What's even more bonkers than that is the fact that the Betfair market has Jeremy Corbyn as only slightly more likely to be next PM (3.3% on the Back price) than Farage (2.5%).

    The Corbyn price looks like very good insurance to me - who knows what will happen in the next few weeks?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    > @RobD said:
    >
    > Ah, if only the civil service weren’t banned from preparing for it.

    It's been three years since the vote with the whole energy of the state dedicated to it. When do you think preparations should have started to make a difference?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,152
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1130847608010752001

    She's a prisoner of the Brexiteers, almost feel sorry for her.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    edited May 2019
    RobD said:

    Ah, if only the civil service weren’t banned from preparing for it.

    There was a plan. To remain as close to the EU, its structures and regulatory ambit as possible.

    And the first phase of that plan has been carried out via the WA; the second phase (the actual leaving and negotiating a trade deal bit) will follow.

    And the result will be staying as close to the EU and its structures as possible and within its regulatory ambit.

    Only dolts such as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, and who knows some PB Leavers on here thought it would be within a 100 miles of no deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > >
    > > Ah, if only the civil service weren’t banned from preparing for it.
    >
    > It's been three years since the vote with the whole energy of the state dedicated to it. When do you think preparations should have started to make a difference?

    Maybe we'd be six months closer to Brexit by now, i.e. already out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    edited May 2019
    > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
    > >
    > > It won't be either !
    >
    > That feels like a "struck by lightning"/"winning a lottery jackpot" comparison :)

    Given May is ~ 1.02 to go this year, that means the odds for the field should be around 50-1 combined {Given May clings on till 2022}.
    If Nigel is 1000.0 then that's a 5% chance he'll get in based on May clinging on. That's too high still. He's a lay at any price (Biggest red in my book right now)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    > @RobD said:
    > > @RobD said:
    >
    > > > @brokenwheel said:
    >

    > > > By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.

    > > Any competent regulator would know exactly how to deal with that. I have my doubts about the competence of this particular regulator. So you may be right in your analysis.

    > > Nonetheless, even if it is ignored for now and some time to come, these are signs of an approach to politics which is, at a minimum, antipathetic to the sort of scrutiny which should be the hallmark of an open democratic country and of the political parties within it. They are worrying signs, to my mind, and just because people won't listen to them now does not mean that those raising the concerns are wrong to do so.

    > > No problem with scrutiny. My problem is when scrutiny is seemingly only applied to one side. Where are the investigations over Labour’s PayPal button, or the People’s Vote, or the Led by Donkeys apparent disregard for spending limits?
    >

    > I don't know why the EC isn't investigating them. They should. But as I said I have not been particularly impressed with the EC's record.
    >
    > You may not have a problem with scrutiny. But TBP seems to. Saying in response to scrutiny "Why aren't you going after the other guy?" is pathetic.
    >
    > Is it, especially when the claims are about as tenuous as those levelled against TBP. Why are they focusing on this set of claims and not the other?

    Yes, it is pathetic. You are deflecting. When an authority asks you for information you concentrate on responding fully and properly. When it is over and there is nothing wrong, you breathe a sigh of relief and get on with what you are there to do.

    If on the other hand casting aspersions on everyone else's motives, making it look like you're the victim, attacking others is what you're about, then it makes sense. That is the criticism to be made of Farage: that he is good at attacking others and saying what he is against but when asked to come up with actual practical solutions that can be implemented he is a failure. Or rather the point of him is to sow discontent rather than try and resolve problems.

    I have a particular contempt for people who do that. It is always very easy to point out what's wrong. It is easy to destroy. Trying to come up with solutions is much much harder - but infinitely more worthwhile.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884
    Cyclefree said:

    > @algarkirk said:

    > This thread - excellent as always - is correct but misses an important point. The purpose of Nigel Farage is not to run the country - heaven forbid - but to be the catalyst by which ordinary people can rediscover a bit of a voice in matters after far too long in which popular opinion has been taken for granted. He has never got very close to being elected to parliament because people won't put him there. And as things stand they certainly won't put his party anywhere near power. But people do value his unique, Mr Toad like, contribution to public life and keep electing him as a means of saying something important but without granting him personal power.



    "The purpose of Nigel Farage is not to run the country". Are you sure about that?

    Certainty is an elusive thing. It is quite possible that Nigel Farage thinks that Nigel Farage's purpose is to run the country. Any thing is possible. There was a 7 second period in which Stephen Crabb was being talked up as the next PM, including, almost unbelievably, by himself. Steve Baker probably thinks he is predestined to be the saviour of England. They are all politicians, and with some notable exceptions (Jess Phillips, Frank Field, Hilary Benn, Ken Clarke, Luciana Berger, Caroline Spelman for a few) they are either stupendously dull or a bit odd or in a number of cases both.

    But none of that is the point.

    It seems to me that the popular plan for having a voice includes voting for Mr Farage's lot on two conditions: one that they are clearly distanced from anything that smacks of extremism of any sort (violence, fascism and all that) and secondly that Farage and his lot don't actually get a sniff of running the country but that that remains in the hands of the broadly competent, like moderate Tories and moderate Labour.

    The most worrying thing is that by chance both those excellent groups who have now run a decent and sane country - which all PBs absolutely love otherwise they would stop being interested - for nigh on 100 years between them have gone awol. Suppose Farage looked the most competent show in town? Now, that would be a worry. But it would not be his fault.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,337
    Good article. I am glad Farage has been around to stir things up and get us to the point where we have won a referendum and have a chance to leave the EU but that doesn't for a second mean he should be considered suitable for leading a mainstream political party. His ego is just too large to be allowed anywhere near real power.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    Is Jenkyns referring to Clifford Chance or Max Clifford, or some other Clifford ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Jenkyns referring to Clifford Chance or Max Clifford, or some other Clifford ?

    Her son.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @RobD said:
    > >
    > > > > @brokenwheel said:
    > >
    >
    > > > > By loudly complaining about it the stakes are raised. If the Electoral Commision had wanted to damage them just before the election by pulling them up for some minor error, by publicly screaming bias Farage ensures they’ll only act if they have something really juicy otherwise it won’t be worth the obvious Comey comparisons.
    >
    > > > Any competent regulator would know exactly how to deal with that. I have my doubts about the competence of this particular regulator. So you may be right in your analysis.
    >
    > > > Nonetheless, even if it is ignored for now and some time to come, these are signs of an approach to politics which is, at a minimum, antipathetic to the sort of scrutiny which should be the hallmark of an open democratic country and of the political parties within it. They are worrying signs, to my mind, and just because people won't listen to them now does not mean that those raising the concerns are wrong to do so.
    >
    > > > No problem with scrutiny. My problem is when scrutiny is seemingly only applied to one side. Where are the investigations over Labour’s PayPal button, or the People’s Vote, or the Led by Donkeys apparent disregard for spending limits?
    > >
    >
    > > I don't know why the EC isn't investigating them. They should. But as I said I have not been particularly impressed with the EC's record.
    > >
    > > You may not have a problem with scrutiny. But TBP seems to. Saying in response to scrutiny "Why aren't you going after the other guy?" is pathetic.
    > >
    > > Is it, especially when the claims are about as tenuous as those levelled against TBP. Why are they focusing on this set of claims and not the other?
    >
    > Yes, it is pathetic. You are deflecting. When an authority asks you for information you concentrate on responding fully and properly. When it is over and there is nothing wrong, you breathe a sigh of relief and get on with what you are there to do.
    >
    > If on the other hand casting aspersions on everyone else's motives, making it look like you're the victim, attacking others is what you're about, then it makes sense. That is the criticism to be made of Farage: that he is good at attacking others and saying what he is against but when asked to come up with actual practical solutions that can be implemented he is a failure. Or rather the point of him is to sow discontent rather than try and resolve problems.
    >
    > I have a particular contempt for people who do that. It is always very easy to point out what's wrong. It is easy to destroy. Trying to come up with solutions is much much harder - but infinitely more worthwhile.
    >
    >

    Is there any suggestion that TBP have not responded fully and properly?
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Looks like Oakeshott has deleted her tweet. Nevertheless good to see the electoral commission checking proper procedure has been followed and well done to the Brexit party for coming through with a clean bill of health.

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1130844101807493121
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    > @Cyclefree said:

    > I don't know why the EC isn't investigating them. They should. But as I said I have not been particularly impressed with the EC's record.
    >
    > You may not have a problem with scrutiny. But TBP seems to. Saying in response to scrutiny "Why aren't you going after the other guy?" is pathetic.
    Wrong; the absolutely fundamental principle underlying the rule of law, is that the law applies and is enforced exactly equally for all parties. Selective prosecution is discrimination and is illegal; do you regard it as "pathetic" when people of colour rightly complain that stop and search laws are applied disproportionately against them?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > Looks like Oakeshott has deleted her tweet. Nevertheless good to see the electoral commission checking proper procedure has been followed and well done to the Brexit party for coming through with a clean bill of health.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1130844101807493121

    She has not.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    @ExiledInScotland She deleted the original tweet and reposted a slightly amended version (See @Scott_P post downthread)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    Leak from May's speech:

    I planned each charted course
    Each careful step along the byway
    And more, much more than this
    I did it my way

    Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew
    When I bit off more than I could chew
    But through it all, when there was doubt
    I ate it up and spit it out
    I faced it all and I stood tall
    And did it my way
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    edited May 2019
    @KentRising There are two twitter impressions :

    twitter.com IsabelOakeshott status 1130842699471441920
    twitter.com IsabelOakeshott status 1130844101807493121
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > @ExiledInScotland She deleted the original tweet and reposted a slightly amended version (See @Scott_P post downthread)

    What did she change?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited May 2019
    The reason the government has abandoned no deal planning is the same reason the Civil Defence Corps and Auxiliary Fire Service were disbanded in 1968: they were intended to mitigate an event so devastating if it happened that it could not be mitigated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    tlg86 said:

    > @Pulpstar said:

    > @ExiledInScotland She deleted the original tweet and reposted a slightly amended version (See @Scott_P post downthread)



    What did she change?

    Added in the bit about ol' Broon I think
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,863
    The thread is about a party leader who resolutely pushed ahead with what he considered right regardless of what others around him might think, and discarded by the wayside those who disagreed with him.

    However, Conservative MPs until now have still not acted against a party leader who has done exactly the same on Brexit for the last 3 years while throwing in a healthy dollop of added duplicity to boot. Farage indeed fell out with an extraordinarily large number of key figures in his party, and May has also fallen out with and lost an extraordinarily large number of Cabinet colleagues. So at the moment it is the parallels between Farage and the current Conservative Party that are striking.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    Is she talking directly to (those in) the gods?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH.

    Nothing has changed.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    She's looking up at the mezzanine which makes her look on telly like she's going mad-eyed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Is she talking directly to (those in) the gods?

    Does seem strange
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    Cunning to do all this after most of the postal votes have come in...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    80% of the electorate voted for parties who said they would leave with a deal.

    Good elision!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326

    She's looking up at the mezzanine which makes her look on telly like she's going mad-eyed.

    Ahh there's a mezzanine! She should ignore them.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,286
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > > Nigel Farage is more likely to be the next prime minister than Jacob Rees-Mogg according to Betfair Exchange punters.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
    > > >
    > > > It won't be either !
    > >
    > > That feels like a "struck by lightning"/"winning a lottery jackpot" comparison :)
    >
    > Given May is ~ 1.02 to go this year, that means the odds for the field should be around 50-1 combined {Given May clings on till 2022}.
    > If Nigel is 1000.0 then that's a 5% chance he'll get in based on May clinging on. That's too high still. He's a lay at any price (Biggest red in my book right now)

    I agree. There's a >0 chance that Con/Lab screw it up so badly that he reaches a tipping point of votes which overcomes the FPTP against new/small/evenly-spread parties. But it ain't all that much >0.

    (And even that would probably require a significant majority of all Leavers to vote for him, which seems unlikely given many favour far softer forms of Brexit)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,923
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1130847608010752001

    Having to back down to Chris Grayling requires a level of crapness previously unknown to humankind.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    edited May 2019
    Legal obligation to "seek" alternative arrangements to the backstop.

    haha and the whole of the UK committed to the customs union if the backstop is triggered!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Legal obligation to "seek" alternative arrangements to the backstop.
    >
    > haha and the whole of the UK committed to the customs union if the backstop is triggered!

    That sounds pretty meaningless.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Even now she is not aware of how strange looking up seems, she should be looking straight down at the camera
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    Oh. Parliament will have to agree an approach to the future agreement.

    Now THAT is what I call kicking it into the long grass.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,723
    Does anyone else think what she is describing sounds eerily similar to, er, being a member of the EU?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    edited May 2019
    RobD said:

    That sounds pretty meaningless.

    Not at all it was the only possible option. The whole of the UK will stay in the "customs arrangement".
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390
    It sounds like she's accepting every single item anyone has ever mentioned as making it likely that they might then think about considering voting for her deal.

    Weak weak weak.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,138
    Is May giving up on the WA ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    > @TOPPING said:
    > That sounds pretty meaningless.
    >
    > Not at all it was the only possible option. The whole of the UK will stay in the "customs arrangement".

    Oh, I mean the first bit - a legal obligation to seek alternatives.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    Bloody hell.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1130847608010752001
    >
    > Having to back down to Chris Grayling requires a level of crapness previously unknown to humankind.

    Those who were thinking a humiliating result in the Euros might cause her to go before the WA vote.....backing down to Chris Grayling should cause her to go by tea-time....
  • Yea Gods ! Referencing paragraph xyz and addressing the whole bloody thing to Parliament on the Eve of an election. Kamikaze.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    I am no fan of Farage, and therefore anything I say must be seen in that light.

    Nevertheless, the choice to make the Brexit Party a limited company rather than a political party bothers me greatly. It's not unreasonable to expect that those putting themselves up for election subject themselves to public scrutiny. Being a private company shields the Brexit Party from that scrutiny. They can, for example, take loans from anyone. The ownership and can control be hidden from view.

    I'm not sure that's healthy.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,527
    Only following on twitter/here but my gut feel is that she's not offering enough to get any Labour rebel support, and may be offering too much to hold onto all the Tory backers holding their nose to vote for the deal.

    The common ground she's aiming for just doesn't seem to be there, however hard she searches for it.
This discussion has been closed.