> @rcs1000 said: > > @Charles said: > > Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin? > > > > AJP Taylor? > > A man with a fabulous turn of phrase. > > Sadly, his grasp of the English language was sometimes better than his grasp of - ummm - history. > > (The Origins of the Second World War is a terrific read.)
Mr rcs.
I'm absolutely sure that your view of history is only enabled by his. It's not so much a shoulders of giants thing, but more a leg-up.
> @thecommissioner said: > . He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further. > > > > There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side. > If they were capable of that I think it would have happened a long time ago.
Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
> @stodge said: > > @solarflare said: > > So if this is "the only way now to deliver Brexit" as May herself says then presumably when it gets voted down she will be revoking A50. > > > > Or, more likely, doing a Cameron and fucking off to leave someone else to deal with the mess. > > It doesn't alter the fact her successor will be confronted by the same situation. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further. > > So whoever it is will either have to Revoke, leave without a WA or, pace May, have to go cap in hand seeking yet another extension. > > Each of the prospective candidates should be asked how they intend to break the deadlock.
And each one will solemnly proclaim that, once the EU see how strongly we feel, they will remove the backstop. And other things they don't like too.
> @solarflare said: > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over.
> @kle4 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > The question now must arise. Why did the Cabinet sign off on this? Did none of them say this is madness? Have they given up arguing? Or are they just bad at politics? > > I cannot understand this Cabinet. They often leak they are angry, at loggerheads with one another, or even that Mays' plans are terrible, yet they stick around. It cannot do their own job prospects any good, yet if they have been convinced that no deal is indeed bad why are they not more bullish indefending these actions? It does their careers no good to stick around if they do not really back it, but it does the country no good to half back these actions but mope about half heartedly.
Wannabe PMs - Hunt, Javid, Gove Loyalists - Lidington, Stewart Representing no dealers - Leadsom, Mordaunt, Fox Representing remainers - Hammond, Rudd, Gauke Careerists - Hinds, Clark, Brokenshire Cant believe they are there - Barclay, Grayling
Most of the senior jobs held by wannabe PMs or representatives of the two different wings has left virtually no support for May, indeed Stewart has been the most visible supporter and only just promoted to cabinet. From the outside it looks like each wing in cabinet has been there mostly to ensure the other wing does not win, rather than to support government policy.
> @solarflare said: > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
Wonder whether any cabinet ministers will resign at 10pm on Sunday evening?
> Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin?
>
> AJP Taylor?
He was my first thought - but I am not so sure he was a fan of Leninist communism.
He wasn’t keen on Stalin, but liked the Soviet Union so assume he liked one of the key people at least!
> Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin?
>
> AJP Taylor?
A man with a fabulous turn of phrase.
Sadly, his grasp of the English language was sometimes better than his grasp of - ummm - history.
(The Origins of the Second World War is a terrific read.)
His putdown of Hugh Trevor Roper was a masterclass in bitchyness
> . He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
>
>
>
> There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
>
If they were capable of that I think it would have happened a long time ago.
I agree to a fairly large extent, but the EU has largely been a closed shop for federalists over the last quarter of a century.
This time, there will undoubtedly be some change .
I saw it reported somewhere the other day that Le Pen wants Farage to join her alliance with Salvini.
The EU could very possibly have four (UK, France, Italy, Poland) of it's six biggest nations sending reform, direct democracy and national freedom groups as their biggest single blocs.
The country faces major decisions, the Tory party is more interested in who becomes leader, the Labour Party are only interested in replacing them, TBP are taking the country down “the road to hell” we need some kind of sane leadership which can cut though the crap and offer solutions which are honest and not based on self interest. There appears to be no middle road so what happens next?
> @kle4 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > The question now must arise. Why did the Cabinet sign off on this? Did none of them say this is madness? Have they given up arguing? Or are they just bad at politics? > > I cannot understand this Cabinet. They often leak they are angry, at loggerheads with one another, or even that Mays' plans are terrible, yet they stick around. It cannot do their own job prospects any good, yet if they have been convinced that no deal is indeed bad why are they not more bullish indefending these actions? It does their careers no good to stick around if they do not really back it, but it does the country no good to half back these actions but mope about half heartedly.
Most of them fancy themselves as PM, and hope for future loyalty from their own cabinets, so aren’t going to make the IDS (or Corbyn) mistake of acquiring the stain of disloyalty themselves.
> > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> >
>
> > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
>
>
>
> He will probably go the no deal route, then ask for GE hoping his legendary skills (in his mind) will see the Tories somehow get a majority for no deal, and who gives a crap if no deal is bad for the country (I suspect he thinks that, even if Baker and the true believers do not). He probably won't get it and Brexit will eb cancelled eventually.
>
>
>
> Ever since the Brexit Party came on the scene there was only one option for the next Tory leader, and that was no deal support.
>
> Yes. The Brexit Party has toxified any further negotiations with the EU as far as the Tories are concerned; for them No Deal is now the only game in town. I suspect Boris will just hope that a combination of his buccaneering rhetoric, Corbyn and a hefty slice of luck will see him through.
>
> He’s deluded
>
> I think those two words were perfectly adequate by themselves, Cyclefree!
>
> I am reading Richard Davenport-Hines’s book on the Cambridge spies and, by pure coincidence, I read these words this morning:
>
> “Popularity was the chief ambition of boys at any boarding school. To achieve this, so Cyril Connolly argued in his memoir of Eton, they needed nonchalance, charm, fortitude and moral cowardice, and to hide their intelligence “as a good tailor hides a paunch or a bump”. Deceptive powers were requisite for popularity.”
>
> Plus ca change......
Deception, or at least dissembling, is key to successful social interaction. If we wear our intentions on our sleeves, we will systematically be taken advantage of by those so inclined.
For a less high-brow target, just look at the survivor series on TV. The winners always have to hide their abilities and intentions.
It’s less the social dissembling. More the focus on popularity being the main aim coupled with moral cowardice. A poor combination. And one which seems all too apparent in Boris.
> @MTimT said: > > @Charles said: > > Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin? > > > > AJP Taylor? > > He was my first thought - but I am not so sure he was a fan of Leninist communism.
The big names - Figes, Service - are very negative on Lenin. Hobsbawm is probably the most sympathetic, but unlike the first two I can’t think of a definitive tome he wrote.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > European Parliament voting intention: > > > > > > BREX: 32% (+1) > > > LAB: 22% (-1) > > > LDEM: 14% (-2) > > > CON: 12% (+3) > > > GRN: 7% (-2) > > > CHUK: 5% (+1) > > > UKIP 3% (+1) > > > > > > via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May > > > > > > Leave 69% > > > 2nd Ref. 19% > > > Revoke 5% > > > > Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though. > > > > Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed. > > I think Lab will be just less than 20% (19.6%). Tories about 15%
Who are the 3% swinging toward the Tories in that poll lol.
> @thecommissioner said: > . He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further. > > > > There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side. > > The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message. > > I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU. > > There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum. > > I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime.
Of course it is not real fondness for the EU, but neither did many people vote remain out of fear. It is a calculation of are we better off in or out? The EU is going to exist and impact us whether we are in are out.
As Rory Stewart says no deal is not a destination, it is a failure to reach one. We would eventually have to do some kind of deal to reach an end point, and it will not be all that different to what May is trying to tell us.
Hmmm: Zac Goldsmith doesn't like the deal. That's another argument in it's favour.
Nevertheless, Mrs May has got one thing consistently wrong. Jeremy Corbyn will never support any Brexit deal she conjures up. It could contain payments from Brussels to the UK of £1trn a year, and free unicorns, and the renaming of the EU as the "The Socialist EUropean Republic", and he'd still hate it.
Because it would be a Tory Brexit.
And he'd rather watch the Conservative Party tear itself apart.
Why Mrs May's has failed to recognise this simple truth, when it was evident to everyone on this board, is not clear.
So, then, whoever follows Mrs May needs to tack ERG-wards to bring together 326 (or so) votes.
Now here's the problem. Let's say the government genuinely goes all Spartan-fever and goes for WTO Brexit in October.
Well, then she probably loses the support Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, that LibDem bloke, and quite possibly the DUP. You see, the DUP don't want the backstop. But they don't want out with no FTA and a hard border in Ireland. They want out with a free trade agreement and Northern Ireland to continue pretty much as it is now. The second choice for the DUP is not No Deal, it's No Brexit.
And in return for which our new PM gets... Kate Hoey. (And they might also get the new member for Peterborough.)
"Ahhhh, but they can just let the clock run down".
Yeah, but if No Deal Brexit was seen to be delivered in a - ummm - undemocratic fashion, and this was followed by a nasty recession, then I think it's fair to say they would not go down as the heroes they see themselves as.
Besides which, this strategy depends on the government not being on the end of a VoNC. Which is a hard call when they lack a majority...
Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
Quite a few posters downthread suggested that Nigel Farage was just a protest vote and so the internal workings of the Brexit party were of no importance. He hasn't got the memo:
Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin?
AJP Taylor?
E.P. Thompson was the most influential historian on the left and was very anti-Lenin and most people have followed him. Peter Fryer wrote a defence of Lenin which was basically an argument against Thompson rather than anything to do with Lenin himself.
> @rcs1000 said: > https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1130866154518568960 > > Hmmm: Zac Goldsmith doesn't like the deal. That's another argument in it's favour. > > Nevertheless, Mrs May has got one thing consistently wrong. Jeremy Corbyn will never support any Brexit deal she conjures up. It could contain payments from Brussels to the UK of £1trn a year, and free unicorns, and the renaming of the EU as the "The Socialist EUropean Republic", and he'd still hate it. > > Because it would be a Tory Brexit. > > And he'd rather watch the Conservative Party tear itself apart. > > Why Mrs May's has failed to recognise this simple truth, when it was evident to everyone on this board, is not clear. > > So, then, whoever follows Mrs May needs to tack ERG-wards to bring together 326 (or so) votes. > > Now here's the problem. Let's say the government genuinely goes all Spartan-fever and goes for WTO Brexit in October. > > Well, then she probably loses the support Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, that LibDem bloke, and quite possibly the DUP. You see, the DUP don't want the backstop. They want out with no backstop. But they don't want out with no backstop and no FTA and a hard border in Ireland. They want out with a free trade agreement and Northern Ireland to continue pretty much as it is now. The second choice for the DUP is not No Deal, it's No Brexit. > > And in return for which, they get... Kate Hoey. (And they might also get the new member for Peterborough.) > > "Ahhhh, but they can just let the clock run down". > > Yeah, but if No Deal Brexit was seen to be delivered in a - ummm - undemocratic fashion, and this was followed by a nasty recession, then I think it's fair to say they would not go down as the heroes they see themselves as. > > Besides which, this strategy depends on the government not being on the end of a VoNC. Which is a hard call when they lack a majority... >
The problem with this deal is not the deal itself. It is all about the 2nd referendum. That is a step over the edge and even though I could support the rest of the deal (even the utterly suicidal Customs Union) I certainly wouldn't vote for May's 4th return so long as it includes an option for a loser's revote.
> @nico67 said: > Boris doesn’t care whether the UK remains or leaves the EU as long as he’s PM. > > As much as he’s been analyzed and under the microscope no one really knows what he’ll do. > >
I think Boris is reasonably predictable. Not because we know him and he's been dissected, but just that's the way he is. He's a conservative with a small c.
In the sphere of 'mad politician fucks up UK' I think we have only slight concerns about Boris. McDonnell is head-and-shoulders the leader there.
Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off back to the obscurity she richly deserves!
With a huge election coming up this week across Europe, it's possible the Bremen State Election in Germany may have passed us all by.
The SPD historically dominates Bremen and got 33% in 2015 winning 29 seats with the CDU on 20. the Greens third with 14, Linke on 8, FDP on 6 and AfD on 5.
The latest INSA poll has the CDU which is on 28% (+6), SPD on 23% (-10) and the Greens on 18% (+3). The other three represented parties are all above the 5% threshold and will be in the new Landtag.
The SDP have led Bremen since 1945 but face losing control of the smallest of the 16 Lander. Currently the SPD govern with the Greens and some on the Left are hoping the setback will force the SPD to contemplate going into coalition with Linke (polling at 11%) and the Greens in the first such example of a radical left Government in Germany.
OTOH, the CDU are buoyant but while they end up the largest party, they are a long way from being able to govern with the FDP well back. One possibility is a CDU-SPD coalition mirroring the national Govenrment but the SPD are increasingly disenchanted and Bremen may be a significant step toward ending the Grand Coalition and another German election.
> @kle4 said: > > @solarflare said: > > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election. > > What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over.
True I suppose, but even if they're not standing or standing but knowing they're unlikely to win they might still feel that it's the best way to actually move things on by essentially getting past the May premiership.
I do take the point of @stodge that the next PM will only face the same basic equation, but there's at least certain elements that *should* progress the situation. Firstly the new PM would be in a slightly better position to call a new snap general election than May would be as she already blew her shot (although again I accept on current polling any new Conservative PM may distinctly not *want* to).
Secondly the very act of getting the leadership is going to require them to be clear on what they would do, which if it is ardent No Deal territory is certainly going to alter the balance of things as it stands currently.
Thirdly I don't believe May has no options at all. The truth has always been that she does have a number of things she could and should be trying. They are all unpalatable for her to greater or lesser degrees , to be fair, but she refuses to pick the least worst and so perpetuates the stagnant status quo. Someone new coming in can hardly be *more* indecisive.
Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
Of course it is not real fondness for the EU, but neither did many people vote remain out of fear.
Whilst I don't doubt that some use terms like "Cliff edge" and "car crash" just to try and influence the debate, some people give the impression of wholeheartedly believing them.
Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
News from Waverley tonight the Conservatives have been ousted. Farnham Residents leader John Ward was elected the new leader and his new Executive will have 4 Farnham Residents, 2 LDs, 1 Green and 1 Labour (can it be?).
So a broad non-Conservative administration takes over in the constituency of the Foreign Secretary.
> @Scott_P said: > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics. > > > > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves! > > https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1130806416770519041
Well the sound is so bad that I can not hear what is being said.
> @solarflare said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election. > > > > What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over. > > True I suppose, but even if they're not standing or standing but knowing they're unlikely to win they might still feel that it's the best way to actually move things on by essentially getting past the May premiership. > > I do take the point of @stodge that the next PM will only face the same basic equation, but there's at least certain elements that *should* progress the situation. Firstly the new PM would be in a slightly better position to call a new snap general election than May would be as she already blew her shot (although again I accept on current polling any new Conservative PM may distinctly not *want* to). > > Secondly the very act of getting the leadership is going to require them to be clear on what they would do, which if it is ardent No Deal territory is certainly going to alter the balance of things as it stands currently. > > Thirdly I don't believe May has no options at all. The truth has always been that she does have a number of things she could and should be trying. They are all unpalatable for her to greater or lesser degrees , to be fair, but she refuses to pick the least worst and so perpetuates the stagnant status quo. Someone new coming in can hardly be *more* indecisive. >
I doubt it is possible for an ardent No Dealer to command the confidence of the commons to become PM in the first place. It will require more finesse. Not sure any of the candidates will bother thinking about any of that though.
> @Cicero said: > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
Quite a few posters downthread suggested that Nigel Farage was just a protest vote and so the internal workings of the Brexit party were of no importance. He hasn't got the memo:
It must be pure coincidence that he wants to get rid of a body which a few days ago asked him a few questions. I mean, of all the issue in British politics, the People have been absolutely furious about the existence and activities of the Electoral Commission.
> @_Anazina_ said: > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics. > > > > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves! > > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
She really is one of the thickest politicians I’ve ever seen. And that’s saying something .
Q> @Scott_P said: > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics. > > > > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves! > > https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1130806416770519041
She came across dreadfully throughout. She kept trying to interrupt the other panellists as if she had some killer point, which never came; she clearly didn’t care about any of the adverse consequences that might follow from a no deal exit. The most amusing exchange was her refusal to endorse the Conservatives on Thursday and her repeated attempts to hint that voters should go BXP without actually explicitly saying so.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1130866154518568960 > > > > Hmmm: Zac Goldsmith doesn't like the deal. That's another argument in it's favour. > > > > Nevertheless, Mrs May has got one thing consistently wrong. Jeremy Corbyn will never support any Brexit deal she conjures up. It could contain payments from Brussels to the UK of £1trn a year, and free unicorns, and the renaming of the EU as the "The Socialist EUropean Republic", and he'd still hate it. > > > > Because it would be a Tory Brexit. > > > > And he'd rather watch the Conservative Party tear itself apart. > > > > Why Mrs May's has failed to recognise this simple truth, when it was evident to everyone on this board, is not clear. > > > > So, then, whoever follows Mrs May needs to tack ERG-wards to bring together 326 (or so) votes. > > > > Now here's the problem. Let's say the government genuinely goes all Spartan-fever and goes for WTO Brexit in October. > > > > Well, then she probably loses the support Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, that LibDem bloke, and quite possibly the DUP. You see, the DUP don't want the backstop. They want out with no backstop. But they don't want out with no backstop and no FTA and a hard border in Ireland. They want out with a free trade agreement and Northern Ireland to continue pretty much as it is now. The second choice for the DUP is not No Deal, it's No Brexit. > > > > And in return for which, they get... Kate Hoey. (And they might also get the new member for Peterborough.) > > > > "Ahhhh, but they can just let the clock run down". > > > > Yeah, but if No Deal Brexit was seen to be delivered in a - ummm - undemocratic fashion, and this was followed by a nasty recession, then I think it's fair to say they would not go down as the heroes they see themselves as. > > > > Besides which, this strategy depends on the government not being on the end of a VoNC. Which is a hard call when they lack a majority... > > > > The problem with this deal is not the deal itself. It is all about the 2nd referendum. That is a step over the edge and even though I could support the rest of the deal (even the utterly suicidal Customs Union) I certainly wouldn't vote for May's 4th return so long as it includes an option for a loser's revote.
Same here. I was in favour of MV2 and MV3 but couldn't support MV4.
> > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
>
> Wake up. It is fools who think that Brexit was a worthwhile foreign policy pursuit that have made the "shit soup" and wrecked the Tory Party's one USP: economic management. It is the ERG that have properly destroyed not only our international reputation, but the Tory Party as well. Putin sympathising traitors and worms the lot of them.
You clearly have no respect for the 17.4 million voters who voted to leave the European Union in the biggest democratic exercise in forty years and where told their decision would be implemented
Fake news, the 1992 general election was the biggest democratic exercise in the last forty years.
Very close in terms of votes: Votes cast in GE1992 = 33,614,074 Votes cast in EURef2016 = 33,577,342
Though 1992 had much higher turnout: 77.7% EURef = 72.2%
. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message.
I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU.
There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum.
I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime.
I see that we’ve moved on from “German carmakers will save us” to “European populists will save us”.
> @Cyclefree said: > Quite a few posters downthread suggested that Nigel Farage was just a protest vote and so the internal workings of the Brexit party were of no importance. He hasn't got the memo: > > > > https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1130920132069482497 > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1130919398527635462 > > > > It must be pure coincidence that he wants to get rid of a body which a few days ago asked him a few questions. I mean, of all the issue in British politics, the People have been absolutely furious about the existence and activities of the Electoral Commission.
Yes, that line is really notable - including along with the established parties and the HoL is really strange as outside his own fanbase I doubt as many of those who are as angry at the bigger parties and HoL are as incensed by the electoral commission.
I wonder if that includes peoples assumptions that Corbyn would also go if they were switching their EU position.
In todays climate I would probably vote for Labour under Starmer/Cooper/Benn possibly Thornberry et al, but couldnt see myself voting for Corbyn any more than Farage, regardless of their EU position.
> @stodge said: > > @Cicero said: > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
> @stodge said: > News from Waverley tonight the Conservatives have been ousted. Farnham Residents leader John Ward was elected the new leader and his new Executive will have 4 Farnham Residents, 2 LDs, 1 Green and 1 Labour (can it be?). > > So a broad non-Conservative administration takes over in the constituency of the Foreign Secretary.
Truly a meterioric rise for Dr Palmer if it is him. He'll be ousting that new leader within the year!
> @_Anazina_ said: > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics. > > > > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves! > > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
> @solarflare said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election. > > > > What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over. > > True I suppose, but even if they're not standing or standing but knowing they're unlikely to win they might still feel that it's the best way to actually move things on by essentially getting past the May premiership. > > I do take the point of @stodge that the next PM will only face the same basic equation, but there's at least certain elements that *should* progress the situation. Firstly the new PM would be in a slightly better position to call a new snap general election than May would be as she already blew her shot (although again I accept on current polling any new Conservative PM may distinctly not *want* to). > > Secondly the very act of getting the leadership is going to require them to be clear on what they would do, which if it is ardent No Deal territory is certainly going to alter the balance of things as it stands currently. > > Thirdly I don't believe May has no options at all. The truth has always been that she does have a number of things she could and should be trying. They are all unpalatable for her to greater or lesser degrees , to be fair, but she refuses to pick the least worst and so perpetuates the stagnant status quo. Someone new coming in can hardly be *more* indecisive. >
It is true that she could try some things, but leaves them far too late. It's why her doggedness and her sensible attempt at compromise no longer shield her from the criticism she gets, desevedly, because her approach is no longer helpful in any way.
> It’s less the social dissembling. More the focus on popularity being the main aim coupled with moral cowardice. A poor combination. And one which seems all too apparent in Boris.
I see what you mean now, and yes, a bad combination.
Just finished an interesting book on trust you might like. If you're interested, I'll email you the details. Basically, it argues that trust is needed where outcomes are uncertain and not transparent, and that whether we are trustworthy or not depends on the balance of long-term benefits and costs of being trustworthy compared with the short-term costs and benefits of cheating (and in fact has virtually nothing to do with character). Compounding this calculation are our poor ability to predict how things will make us feel in the future, and our instantaneous ability to justify our own bad behaviour (but not that of others) the moment we do something against our own morality.
> @nichomar said: > > @stodge said: > > > @Cicero said: > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
The likely high London turnout is probably on the money.
> News from Waverley tonight the Conservatives have been ousted. Farnham Residents leader John Ward was elected the new leader and his new Executive will have 4 Farnham Residents, 2 LDs, 1 Green and 1 Labour (can it be?).
>
> So a broad non-Conservative administration takes over in the constituency of the Foreign Secretary.
Truly a meterioric for Dr Palmer if it is him. He'll be ousting that new leader within the year!
Is Haslemere in a pre-revolutionary state? The till girl in Waitrose was a bit bolshy last time I was there.
> Quite a few posters downthread suggested that Nigel Farage was just a protest vote and so the internal workings of the Brexit party were of no importance. He hasn't got the memo:
> It must be pure coincidence that he wants to get rid of a body which a few days ago asked him a few questions. I mean, of all the issue in British politics, the People have been absolutely furious about the existence and activities of the Electoral Commission.
Yes, that line is really notable - including along with the established parties and the HoL is really strange as outside his own fanbase I doubt as many of those who are as angry at the bigger parties and HoL are as incensed by the electoral commission.
He does not like opposition or challenge, as Mr Meeks’ excellent header amply demonstrates.
I think his position is a disgrace, but it may have been effective. How much of the Tory leakage to Brexit has been caused by Labours fudge? A lot of it, I imagine, as the public will blame the governing party, rightly so in 2017 & 2018, but in 2019 the fault lies with ERG, Labour, CUK and LD yet May continues to get the blame.
Theresa May's speech would have been a masterstroke if she had made it on becoming Prime Minister or even six months ago. But her authority has atrophied. If there's one thing worse than doing the wrong thing, it's doing the right thing at the wrong time.
> @isam said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704 > > > > > > > > Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster . > > > > In fairness until the last few weeks it looked like it was working just fine. > > Hypothetical polls don't prove anything at all
True, and they might be wrong about the LDs gaining at Labour's expense, it has been a late surge. But if that late surge is proven true, then Corbyn will surely face some difficulty for a pointlessly 'ambiguous' stance.
Too late it would just look desperate now . Corbyn is clueless . The time to do it was under great fanfare after the talks broke down , hold a news conference , say they’ve tried everything possible to get a compromise . Say they can’t vote for a damaging deal , say to leave voters we can’t agree to something that would lead to even more austerity and cuts to your public services. If you’re going to go for the second vote do it with bells and whistles .
> It’s less the social dissembling. More the focus on popularity being the main aim coupled with moral cowardice. A poor combination. And one which seems all too apparent in Boris.
I see what you mean now, and yes, a bad combination.
Just finished an interesting book on trust you might like. If you're interested, I'll email you the details. Basically, it argues that trust is needed where outcomes are uncertain and not transparent, and that whether we are trustworthy or not depends on the balance of long-term benefits and costs of being trustworthy compared with the short-term costs and benefits of cheating (and in fact has virtually nothing to do with character). Compounding this calculation are our poor ability to predict how things will make us feel in the future, and our instantaneous ability to justify our own bad behaviour (but not that of others) the moment we do something against our own morality.
Yes, please do. It sounds interesting. Coincidentally I was discussing your Nature article of a few years back with some work colleagues this morning.
> @Gallowgate said: > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > He is a dangerous man.
Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
>
>
> Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > He is a dangerous man. > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > Same with HoL.
I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics. > > > > > > > > > > > > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves! > > > > > > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament. > > > > Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able. > > I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
> > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> >
>
> > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
>
>
>
> Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
>
> I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message.
I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU.
There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum.
I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime.
I see that we’ve moved on from “German carmakers will save us” to “European populists will save us”.
Well, firstly - the deal on the table that parliament keeps saying no to is 100% free trade with no freedom of movement. These 'freedoms' were supposed to be indivisible. Clearly they are, when they want the trade.
It looks to me like there is a grouping running into hundreds who are going to be elected that have an anti-EU axe to grind about either austerity, integration or immigration.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Scott_P said: > > It's apparently an EE poll > > Light relief for the blues in that I suppose
If they could actually get to third (I do not think they will) that would be an astounding result - clearly it would mean May should remain in place for a long time.
> @nichomar said: > > @stodge said: > > > @Cicero said: > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
If these numbers are right, I think it will be a political tsunami...
> @kle4 said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > Same with HoL. > > I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
Well his party is only a few weeks old and he's in the middle of an EU election.
I'm sure as we move towards a general election all will be revealed...
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics. > > > > > > > > > > > > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves! > > > > > > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament. > > > > Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able. > > I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
Can we?
There might be a bit of a Portillo effect going on here: a politician disliked by many who leaves parliament, appears on TV, and suddenly becomes popular.
I realise that F1 and soccer are PB's sporting drugs of choice, but for those of us who follow the cycling, this really is the most catatonically boring Giro d'Italia. Halfway through the race and, apart from the two time trials (which have been good), all we've had are plodding flat stages. Roll on the Tour.
> > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> >
>
> > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
>
>
>
> Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
>
> I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
Can we?
There might be a bit of a Portillo effect going on here: a politician disliked by many who leaves parliament, appears on TV, and suddenly becomes popular.
I always found Balls quite unlikable. He may well be a nice and bright man, but his successor being apparently crap doesn't really change things.
How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 % Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10% No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
> @isam said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704 > > > > > > Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster . > > In fairness until the last few weeks it looked like it was working just fine. > > Hypothetical polls don't prove anything at all
-----------
'Real' polls don't prove anything at all either.
Polls do provide insight though and this poll indicates that the Labour leadership have fucked up royally.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > He is a dangerous man. > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > Same with HoL.
Sometimes just replacing something can be enough of a 'threat': I got rid of your predecessor; unless you do what I want I could get rid of you, too ...
> @noneoftheabove said: > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal. > > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 % > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10% > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40% > > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
I would like Theresa May to go now. I think she really has done her best to do what she feels is right. She is an inscrutable lady, and I still don't quite know if she really wanted to deliver Brexit, or if she has deliberately worked to engineer an endgame that is a choice between the wateriest of Brexits and Remaining. Either way, it no longer matters, because she has failed at both.
She must go, and take Hammond with her, and let's face it, regardless of politics, the great ship of state is unlikely to miss either of their hands on the wheel.
I'm not a Tory member but I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario.
. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message.
I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU.
There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum.
I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime.
I see that we’ve moved on from “German carmakers will save us” to “European populists will save us”.
Well, firstly - the deal on the table that parliament keeps saying no to is 100% free trade with no freedom of movement. These 'freedoms' were supposed to be indivisible. Clearly they are, when they want the trade.
It looks to me like there is a grouping running into hundreds who are going to be elected that have an anti-EU axe to grind about either austerity, integration or immigration.
And why do you think that would make them or the Commission more likely to help the British? You labour under the misapprehension that we are more important to the EU than in fact we are. None of these groups are in favour of exiting the EU. Indeed, some of them have expressly changed their stance on exit precisely because of the mess they have seen in Britain. They may wish to change the EU but we are being deluded in thinking that means they will change it to suit a departing member.
And the immigration these groups are concerned about is Muslim immigration into Europe not FoM within it. Some of these populists have already been in power - Salvini, for instance, and there is zero evidence that this has made any difference at all to the Commission’s stance or, indeed, Italy’s.
> @nico67 said: > Cicero , regarding London was that just a London poll or just data from a national poll. > > I hope you’re right , I’d love to see the Lib Dems do well. >
"David Jones, the former Brexit minister, said: “I have been an MP for 14 years and I have never seen such anger among colleagues. She is desperate, she is deluded and she is doomed.”
Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal. > > > > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 % > > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10% > > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40% > > > > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not? > > What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
Splitting the Leave vote between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party seems unlikely to result in seat gains.
I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario.
I think Cersei is the only one who can mend the 7 kingdoms.
She can set out a timetable and framework for tyranny, or failing that, a managed Dragon scenario...
> No. I am not giving the authorities a free ride. There is no evidence I have seen that the EC is abusing its powers. If there is I will be the first to criticise them. > > I am criticising a political party which seems to think it ought to be exempt from scrutiny. And I am criticising their reaction to such scrutiny. Were I advising a financial entity which had just been set up (as I have done in the past) I would tell them to expect early scrutiny and would also advise them that making a public fuss in such a babyish way would be inadvisable. But behaving in a babyish way when challenged seems to be a bit of a Farage speciality. > > Anyway they seem to have got a clean bill of health and the EC can now look at other parties and groupings.
Well, yes, I have advised recently-set-up financial entities too. I tend to keep it to myself, as I'd hate to give the impression of appealing to my own authority.
This "it's babyish" attack line is itself infantile. Say for example you have a defendant saying he has a defence of alibi. Is the more adult response "so tell us where you say you were and what the evidence for your claim is", or "LOL, you sound like a small child saying I wasn't there, miss, I was in the toilets'"? *If Farage* has received a disproportionate amount of attention from the authorities (and he is quite a good judge, given that he can compare what Ukip used to get with what he gets now) then he has a proper, serious and probably actionable grievance, infantile claims of infantility notwithstanding.
> @noneoftheabove said: > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal. > > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 % > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10% > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40% > > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
No dealers, as a transition period, believe it is the quickest way to get an FTA and bilaterals with the EU (and yes I fully understand that their are other views). So the no dealers believe that as the election comes ever closer the Tory party will move towards this position to be competitive at the next GE.
Comments
> > @Charles said:
> > Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin?
> >
> > AJP Taylor?
>
> A man with a fabulous turn of phrase.
>
> Sadly, his grasp of the English language was sometimes better than his grasp of - ummm - history.
>
> (The Origins of the Second World War is a terrific read.)
Mr rcs.
I'm absolutely sure that your view of history is only enabled by his. It's not so much a shoulders of giants thing, but more a leg-up.
> . He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
>
>
>
> There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
>
If they were capable of that I think it would have happened a long time ago.
> > @solarflare said:
> > So if this is "the only way now to deliver Brexit" as May herself says then presumably when it gets voted down she will be revoking A50.
> >
> > Or, more likely, doing a Cameron and fucking off to leave someone else to deal with the mess.
>
> It doesn't alter the fact her successor will be confronted by the same situation. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
>
> So whoever it is will either have to Revoke, leave without a WA or, pace May, have to go cap in hand seeking yet another extension.
>
> Each of the prospective candidates should be asked how they intend to break the deadlock.
And each one will solemnly proclaim that, once the EU see how strongly we feel, they will remove the backstop. And other things they don't like too.
> Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > The question now must arise. Why did the Cabinet sign off on this? Did none of them say this is madness? Have they given up arguing? Or are they just bad at politics?
>
> I cannot understand this Cabinet. They often leak they are angry, at loggerheads with one another, or even that Mays' plans are terrible, yet they stick around. It cannot do their own job prospects any good, yet if they have been convinced that no deal is indeed bad why are they not more bullish indefending these actions? It does their careers no good to stick around if they do not really back it, but it does the country no good to half back these actions but mope about half heartedly.
Wannabe PMs - Hunt, Javid, Gove
Loyalists - Lidington, Stewart
Representing no dealers - Leadsom, Mordaunt, Fox
Representing remainers - Hammond, Rudd, Gauke
Careerists - Hinds, Clark, Brokenshire
Cant believe they are there - Barclay, Grayling
Most of the senior jobs held by wannabe PMs or representatives of the two different wings has left virtually no support for May, indeed Stewart has been the most visible supporter and only just promoted to cabinet. From the outside it looks like each wing in cabinet has been there mostly to ensure the other wing does not win, rather than to support government policy.
> Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
Wonder whether any cabinet ministers will resign at 10pm on Sunday evening?
As much as he’s been analyzed and under the microscope no one really knows what he’ll do.
This time, there will undoubtedly be some change .
I saw it reported somewhere the other day that Le Pen wants Farage to join her alliance with Salvini.
The EU could very possibly have four (UK, France, Italy, Poland) of it's six biggest nations sending reform, direct democracy and national freedom groups as their biggest single blocs.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > The question now must arise. Why did the Cabinet sign off on this? Did none of them say this is madness? Have they given up arguing? Or are they just bad at politics?
>
> I cannot understand this Cabinet. They often leak they are angry, at loggerheads with one another, or even that Mays' plans are terrible, yet they stick around. It cannot do their own job prospects any good, yet if they have been convinced that no deal is indeed bad why are they not more bullish indefending these actions? It does their careers no good to stick around if they do not really back it, but it does the country no good to half back these actions but mope about half heartedly.
Most of them fancy themselves as PM, and hope for future loyalty from their own cabinets, so aren’t going to make the IDS (or Corbyn) mistake of acquiring the stain of disloyalty themselves.
> > @Charles said:
> > Random aside - I've just been asked by a yougn relative who has a project for the names of at least two historians with a positive view of Lenin. I think I must be an unreconstructed fascist, as I could think of a good handful of historians of russia, and I don't think a single one was positive on Lenin, but surely he must have more defenders than Stalin?
> >
> > AJP Taylor?
>
> He was my first thought - but I am not so sure he was a fan of Leninist communism.
The big names - Figes, Service - are very negative on Lenin. Hobsbawm is probably the most sympathetic, but unlike the first two I can’t think of a definitive tome he wrote.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > European Parliament voting intention:
> > >
> > > BREX: 32% (+1)
> > > LAB: 22% (-1)
> > > LDEM: 14% (-2)
> > > CON: 12% (+3)
> > > GRN: 7% (-2)
> > > CHUK: 5% (+1)
> > > UKIP 3% (+1)
> > >
> > > via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May
> > >
> > > Leave 69%
> > > 2nd Ref. 19%
> > > Revoke 5%
> >
> > Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though.
> >
> > Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.
>
> I think Lab will be just less than 20% (19.6%). Tories about 15%
Who are the 3% swinging toward the Tories in that poll lol.
Or like his gardens. Cost us a fortune and amount to nothing.
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1130920474886705152?s=21
> . He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
>
>
>
> There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
>
> The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message.
>
> I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU.
>
> There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum.
>
> I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime.
Of course it is not real fondness for the EU, but neither did many people vote remain out of fear. It is a calculation of are we better off in or out? The EU is going to exist and impact us whether we are in are out.
As Rory Stewart says no deal is not a destination, it is a failure to reach one. We would eventually have to do some kind of deal to reach an end point, and it will not be all that different to what May is trying to tell us.
This is the thing that I don't get about what happens next.
Is BoZo Nigel Fucking Farage's lacky, or the other way round?
If they fight as equals, both lose.
Hmmm: Zac Goldsmith doesn't like the deal. That's another argument in it's favour.
Nevertheless, Mrs May has got one thing consistently wrong. Jeremy Corbyn will never support any Brexit deal she conjures up. It could contain payments from Brussels to the UK of £1trn a year, and free unicorns, and the renaming of the EU as the "The Socialist EUropean Republic", and he'd still hate it.
Because it would be a Tory Brexit.
And he'd rather watch the Conservative Party tear itself apart.
Why Mrs May's has failed to recognise this simple truth, when it was evident to everyone on this board, is not clear.
So, then, whoever follows Mrs May needs to tack ERG-wards to bring together 326 (or so) votes.
Now here's the problem. Let's say the government genuinely goes all Spartan-fever and goes for WTO Brexit in October.
Well, then she probably loses the support Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, that LibDem bloke, and quite possibly the DUP. You see, the DUP don't want the backstop. But they don't want out with no FTA and a hard border in Ireland. They want out with a free trade agreement and Northern Ireland to continue pretty much as it is now. The second choice for the DUP is not No Deal, it's No Brexit.
And in return for which our new PM gets... Kate Hoey. (And they might also get the new member for Peterborough.)
"Ahhhh, but they can just let the clock run down".
Yeah, but if No Deal Brexit was seen to be delivered in a - ummm - undemocratic fashion, and this was followed by a nasty recession, then I think it's fair to say they would not go down as the heroes they see themselves as.
Besides which, this strategy depends on the government not being on the end of a VoNC. Which is a hard call when they lack a majority...
Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1130920132069482497
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1130919398527635462
> https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1130866154518568960
>
> Hmmm: Zac Goldsmith doesn't like the deal. That's another argument in it's favour.
>
> Nevertheless, Mrs May has got one thing consistently wrong. Jeremy Corbyn will never support any Brexit deal she conjures up. It could contain payments from Brussels to the UK of £1trn a year, and free unicorns, and the renaming of the EU as the "The Socialist EUropean Republic", and he'd still hate it.
>
> Because it would be a Tory Brexit.
>
> And he'd rather watch the Conservative Party tear itself apart.
>
> Why Mrs May's has failed to recognise this simple truth, when it was evident to everyone on this board, is not clear.
>
> So, then, whoever follows Mrs May needs to tack ERG-wards to bring together 326 (or so) votes.
>
> Now here's the problem. Let's say the government genuinely goes all Spartan-fever and goes for WTO Brexit in October.
>
> Well, then she probably loses the support Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, that LibDem bloke, and quite possibly the DUP. You see, the DUP don't want the backstop. They want out with no backstop. But they don't want out with no backstop and no FTA and a hard border in Ireland. They want out with a free trade agreement and Northern Ireland to continue pretty much as it is now. The second choice for the DUP is not No Deal, it's No Brexit.
>
> And in return for which, they get... Kate Hoey. (And they might also get the new member for Peterborough.)
>
> "Ahhhh, but they can just let the clock run down".
>
> Yeah, but if No Deal Brexit was seen to be delivered in a - ummm - undemocratic fashion, and this was followed by a nasty recession, then I think it's fair to say they would not go down as the heroes they see themselves as.
>
> Besides which, this strategy depends on the government not being on the end of a VoNC. Which is a hard call when they lack a majority...
>
The problem with this deal is not the deal itself. It is all about the 2nd referendum. That is a step over the edge and even though I could support the rest of the deal (even the utterly suicidal Customs Union) I certainly wouldn't vote for May's 4th return so long as it includes an option for a loser's revote.
> Boris doesn’t care whether the UK remains or leaves the EU as long as he’s PM.
>
> As much as he’s been analyzed and under the microscope no one really knows what he’ll do.
>
>
I think Boris is reasonably predictable. Not because we know him and he's been dissected, but just that's the way he is. He's a conservative with a small c.
In the sphere of 'mad politician fucks up UK' I think we have only slight concerns about Boris. McDonnell is head-and-shoulders the leader there.
He is a dangerous man.
Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off back to the obscurity she richly deserves!
The SPD historically dominates Bremen and got 33% in 2015 winning 29 seats with the CDU on 20. the Greens third with 14, Linke on 8, FDP on 6 and AfD on 5.
The latest INSA poll has the CDU which is on 28% (+6), SPD on 23% (-10) and the Greens on 18% (+3). The other three represented parties are all above the 5% threshold and will be in the new Landtag.
The SDP have led Bremen since 1945 but face losing control of the smallest of the 16 Lander. Currently the SPD govern with the Greens and some on the Left are hoping the setback will force the SPD to contemplate going into coalition with Linke (polling at 11%) and the Greens in the first such example of a radical left Government in Germany.
OTOH, the CDU are buoyant but while they end up the largest party, they are a long way from being able to govern with the FDP well back. One possibility is a CDU-SPD coalition mirroring the national Govenrment but the SPD are increasingly disenchanted and Bremen may be a significant step toward ending the Grand Coalition and another German election.
> > @solarflare said:
> > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
>
> What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over.
True I suppose, but even if they're not standing or standing but knowing they're unlikely to win they might still feel that it's the best way to actually move things on by essentially getting past the May premiership.
I do take the point of @stodge that the next PM will only face the same basic equation, but there's at least certain elements that *should* progress the situation. Firstly the new PM would be in a slightly better position to call a new snap general election than May would be as she already blew her shot (although again I accept on current polling any new Conservative PM may distinctly not *want* to).
Secondly the very act of getting the leadership is going to require them to be clear on what they would do, which if it is ardent No Deal territory is certainly going to alter the balance of things as it stands currently.
Thirdly I don't believe May has no options at all. The truth has always been that she does have a number of things she could and should be trying. They are all unpalatable for her to greater or lesser degrees , to be fair, but she refuses to pick the least worst and so perpetuates the stagnant status quo. Someone new coming in can hardly be *more* indecisive.
> He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> He is a dangerous man.
And the House of Lords. The Queen is safe for now because Andrew Lilico is playing hard to get.
So a broad non-Conservative administration takes over in the constituency of the Foreign Secretary.
> Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
>
>
> Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1130806416770519041
Well the sound is so bad that I can not hear what is being said.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
> >
> > What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over.
>
> True I suppose, but even if they're not standing or standing but knowing they're unlikely to win they might still feel that it's the best way to actually move things on by essentially getting past the May premiership.
>
> I do take the point of @stodge that the next PM will only face the same basic equation, but there's at least certain elements that *should* progress the situation. Firstly the new PM would be in a slightly better position to call a new snap general election than May would be as she already blew her shot (although again I accept on current polling any new Conservative PM may distinctly not *want* to).
>
> Secondly the very act of getting the leadership is going to require them to be clear on what they would do, which if it is ardent No Deal territory is certainly going to alter the balance of things as it stands currently.
>
> Thirdly I don't believe May has no options at all. The truth has always been that she does have a number of things she could and should be trying. They are all unpalatable for her to greater or lesser degrees , to be fair, but she refuses to pick the least worst and so perpetuates the stagnant status quo. Someone new coming in can hardly be *more* indecisive.
>
I doubt it is possible for an ardent No Dealer to command the confidence of the commons to become PM in the first place. It will require more finesse. Not sure any of the candidates will bother thinking about any of that though.
> Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
>
> Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
> Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
>
>
> Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
She really is one of the thickest politicians I’ve ever seen. And that’s saying something .
> Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
>
>
> Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1130806416770519041
She came across dreadfully throughout. She kept trying to interrupt the other panellists as if she had some killer point, which never came; she clearly didn’t care about any of the adverse consequences that might follow from a no deal exit. The most amusing exchange was her refusal to endorse the Conservatives on Thursday and her repeated attempts to hint that voters should go BXP without actually explicitly saying so.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1130866154518568960
> >
> > Hmmm: Zac Goldsmith doesn't like the deal. That's another argument in it's favour.
> >
> > Nevertheless, Mrs May has got one thing consistently wrong. Jeremy Corbyn will never support any Brexit deal she conjures up. It could contain payments from Brussels to the UK of £1trn a year, and free unicorns, and the renaming of the EU as the "The Socialist EUropean Republic", and he'd still hate it.
> >
> > Because it would be a Tory Brexit.
> >
> > And he'd rather watch the Conservative Party tear itself apart.
> >
> > Why Mrs May's has failed to recognise this simple truth, when it was evident to everyone on this board, is not clear.
> >
> > So, then, whoever follows Mrs May needs to tack ERG-wards to bring together 326 (or so) votes.
> >
> > Now here's the problem. Let's say the government genuinely goes all Spartan-fever and goes for WTO Brexit in October.
> >
> > Well, then she probably loses the support Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, that LibDem bloke, and quite possibly the DUP. You see, the DUP don't want the backstop. They want out with no backstop. But they don't want out with no backstop and no FTA and a hard border in Ireland. They want out with a free trade agreement and Northern Ireland to continue pretty much as it is now. The second choice for the DUP is not No Deal, it's No Brexit.
> >
> > And in return for which, they get... Kate Hoey. (And they might also get the new member for Peterborough.)
> >
> > "Ahhhh, but they can just let the clock run down".
> >
> > Yeah, but if No Deal Brexit was seen to be delivered in a - ummm - undemocratic fashion, and this was followed by a nasty recession, then I think it's fair to say they would not go down as the heroes they see themselves as.
> >
> > Besides which, this strategy depends on the government not being on the end of a VoNC. Which is a hard call when they lack a majority...
> >
>
> The problem with this deal is not the deal itself. It is all about the 2nd referendum. That is a step over the edge and even though I could support the rest of the deal (even the utterly suicidal Customs Union) I certainly wouldn't vote for May's 4th return so long as it includes an option for a loser's revote.
Same here. I was in favour of MV2 and MV3 but couldn't support MV4.
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
Is that Westminster VI? Or EU election VI?
Votes cast in GE1992 = 33,614,074
Votes cast in EURef2016 = 33,577,342
Though 1992 had much higher turnout: 77.7%
EURef = 72.2%
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster .
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
Is that a GE or EE poll ?
> Quite a few posters downthread suggested that Nigel Farage was just a protest vote and so the internal workings of the Brexit party were of no importance. He hasn't got the memo:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1130920132069482497
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1130919398527635462
>
>
>
> It must be pure coincidence that he wants to get rid of a body which a few days ago asked him a few questions. I mean, of all the issue in British politics, the People have been absolutely furious about the existence and activities of the Electoral Commission.
Yes, that line is really notable - including along with the established parties and the HoL is really strange as outside his own fanbase I doubt as many of those who are as angry at the bigger parties and HoL are as incensed by the electoral commission.
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
I wonder if that includes peoples assumptions that Corbyn would also go if they were switching their EU position.
In todays climate I would probably vote for Labour under Starmer/Cooper/Benn possibly Thornberry et al, but couldnt see myself voting for Corbyn any more than Farage, regardless of their EU position.
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
Is there time for Corbyn to be less equivocal on the subject and have an effect?
> > @Cicero said:
> > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> >
> > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
>
> The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
> News from Waverley tonight the Conservatives have been ousted. Farnham Residents leader John Ward was elected the new leader and his new Executive will have 4 Farnham Residents, 2 LDs, 1 Green and 1 Labour (can it be?).
>
> So a broad non-Conservative administration takes over in the constituency of the Foreign Secretary.
Truly a meterioric rise for Dr Palmer if it is him. He'll be ousting that new leader within the year!
> Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
>
>
> Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > Possibly the cabinet agreed to it knowing it'd go down like a bucket of cold sick and hasten the end of May, at which point half the cabinet will then stand in the leadership election.
> >
> > What chance do they have? The membership seems like it would go nuts if two of the Cabinet go to the final two, and any proper Brexiteer would beat any of the Cabinet, who are all deal backers multiple times over.
>
> True I suppose, but even if they're not standing or standing but knowing they're unlikely to win they might still feel that it's the best way to actually move things on by essentially getting past the May premiership.
>
> I do take the point of @stodge that the next PM will only face the same basic equation, but there's at least certain elements that *should* progress the situation. Firstly the new PM would be in a slightly better position to call a new snap general election than May would be as she already blew her shot (although again I accept on current polling any new Conservative PM may distinctly not *want* to).
>
> Secondly the very act of getting the leadership is going to require them to be clear on what they would do, which if it is ardent No Deal territory is certainly going to alter the balance of things as it stands currently.
>
> Thirdly I don't believe May has no options at all. The truth has always been that she does have a number of things she could and should be trying. They are all unpalatable for her to greater or lesser degrees , to be fair, but she refuses to pick the least worst and so perpetuates the stagnant status quo. Someone new coming in can hardly be *more* indecisive.
>
It is true that she could try some things, but leaves them far too late. It's why her doggedness and her sensible attempt at compromise no longer shield her from the criticism she gets, desevedly, because her approach is no longer helpful in any way.
> It’s less the social dissembling. More the focus on popularity being the main aim coupled with moral cowardice. A poor combination. And one which seems all too apparent in Boris.
I see what you mean now, and yes, a bad combination.
Just finished an interesting book on trust you might like. If you're interested, I'll email you the details. Basically, it argues that trust is needed where outcomes are uncertain and not transparent, and that whether we are trustworthy or not depends on the balance of long-term benefits and costs of being trustworthy compared with the short-term costs and benefits of cheating (and in fact has virtually nothing to do with character). Compounding this calculation are our poor ability to predict how things will make us feel in the future, and our instantaneous ability to justify our own bad behaviour (but not that of others) the moment we do something against our own morality.
> > @stodge said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > >
> > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> >
> > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
>
> Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
The likely high London turnout is probably on the money.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
>
> Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster .
In fairness until the last few weeks it looked like it was working just fine.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
>
> Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster .
I think his position is a disgrace, but it may have been effective. How much of the Tory leakage to Brexit has been caused by Labours fudge? A lot of it, I imagine, as the public will blame the governing party, rightly so in 2017 & 2018, but in 2019 the fault lies with ERG, Labour, CUK and LD yet May continues to get the blame.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster .
>
>
>
> In fairness until the last few weeks it looked like it was working just fine.
>
> Hypothetical polls don't prove anything at all
True, and they might be wrong about the LDs gaining at Labour's expense, it has been a late surge. But if that late surge is proven true, then Corbyn will surely face some difficulty for a pointlessly 'ambiguous' stance.
> It's apparently an EE poll
Light relief for the blues in that I suppose
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
>
> Is there time for Corbyn to be less equivocal on the subject and have an effect?
Too late it would just look desperate now . Corbyn is clueless . The time to do it was under great fanfare after the talks broke down , hold a news conference , say they’ve tried everything possible to get a compromise . Say they can’t vote for a damaging deal , say to leave voters we can’t agree to something that would lead to even more austerity and cuts to your public services. If you’re going to go for the second vote do it with bells and whistles .
> He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> He is a dangerous man.
Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
Same with HoL.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> > He is a dangerous man.
>
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> Same with HoL.
I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
>
> > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> >
>
> > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
>
>
>
> Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
>
> I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
on paper.
As for european politics; https://europeelects.eu/2019/05/21/a-right-wing-surge-a-glimpse-into-the-new-eu-parliament/
It looks to me like there is a grouping running into hundreds who are going to be elected that have an anti-EU axe to grind about either austerity, integration or immigration.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > It's apparently an EE poll
>
> Light relief for the blues in that I suppose
If they could actually get to third (I do not think they will) that would be an astounding result - clearly it would mean May should remain in place for a long time.
> > @stodge said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > >
> > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> >
> > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
>
> Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
If these numbers are right, I think it will be a political tsunami...
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> > > He is a dangerous man.
> >
> > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
> >
> > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> >
> > Same with HoL.
>
> I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
Well his party is only a few weeks old and he's in the middle of an EU election.
I'm sure as we move towards a general election all will be revealed...
> > @_Anazina_ said:
>
> > Shame more people don’t watch the Daily Politics.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Andrea Jenkyns of the ERG had a complete car crash about WTO. Having been pushing this as the best Brexit she just highlighted the fact she’s a clueless moron whose had her 15 minutes of fame as the new poster woman of the ERG death cult and hopefully will now piss off to the obscurity she richly deserves!
>
> >
>
> > Several PBers campaigned for this rank idiot - her opponent? Ed Balls, (then) one of the brightest men in Parliament.
>
>
>
> Anyone who has worked with computer scientists / engineers knows all too well that 'brightest' does not equate to able.
>
> I think we can all agree that Balls is darned sight more able than the drivelling moron that replaced him.
Can we?
There might be a bit of a Portillo effect going on here: a politician disliked by many who leaves parliament, appears on TV, and suddenly becomes popular.
No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
I hope you’re right , I’d love to see the Lib Dems do well.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1130876182147272704
>
> >
>
> > Just proves what many Labour voters in here have been saying . Corbyns stance is a complete disaster .
>
> In fairness until the last few weeks it looked like it was working just fine.
>
> Hypothetical polls don't prove anything at all
-----------
'Real' polls don't prove anything at all either.
Polls do provide insight though and this poll indicates that the Labour leadership have fucked up royally.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> > He is a dangerous man.
>
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> Same with HoL.
Sometimes just replacing something can be enough of a 'threat': I got rid of your predecessor; unless you do what I want I could get rid of you, too ...
> How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
>
> No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
> Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
> No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
>
> Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
She must go, and take Hammond with her, and let's face it, regardless of politics, the great ship of state is unlikely to miss either of their hands on the wheel.
I'm not a Tory member but I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario.
And the immigration these groups are concerned about is Muslim immigration into Europe not FoM within it. Some of these populists have already been in power - Salvini, for instance, and there is zero evidence that this has made any difference at all to the Commission’s stance or, indeed, Italy’s.
> Cicero , regarding London was that just a London poll or just data from a national poll.
>
> I hope you’re right , I’d love to see the Lib Dems do well.
>
London, but it's apparently a private poll.
"David Jones, the former Brexit minister, said: “I have been an MP for 14 years and I have never seen such anger among colleagues. She is desperate, she is deluded and she is doomed.”
He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
> >
> > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
> > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
> > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
> >
> > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
>
> What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
Splitting the Leave vote between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party seems unlikely to result in seat gains.
She can set out a timetable and framework for tyranny, or failing that, a managed Dragon scenario...
> No. I am not giving the authorities a free ride. There is no evidence I have seen that the EC is abusing its powers. If there is I will be the first to criticise them.
>
> I am criticising a political party which seems to think it ought to be exempt from scrutiny. And I am criticising their reaction to such scrutiny. Were I advising a financial entity which had just been set up (as I have done in the past) I would tell them to expect early scrutiny and would also advise them that making a public fuss in such a babyish way would be inadvisable. But behaving in a babyish way when challenged seems to be a bit of a Farage speciality.
>
> Anyway they seem to have got a clean bill of health and the EC can now look at other parties and groupings.
Well, yes, I have advised recently-set-up financial entities too. I tend to keep it to myself, as I'd hate to give the impression of appealing to my own authority.
This "it's babyish" attack line is itself infantile. Say for example you have a defendant saying he has a defence of alibi. Is the more adult response "so tell us where you say you were and what the evidence for your claim is", or "LOL, you sound like a small child saying I wasn't there, miss, I was in the toilets'"? *If Farage* has received a disproportionate amount of attention from the authorities (and he is quite a good judge, given that he can compare what Ukip used to get with what he gets now) then he has a proper, serious and probably actionable grievance, infantile claims of infantility notwithstanding.
> How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
>
> No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
> Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
> No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
>
> Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
No dealers, as a transition period, believe it is the quickest way to get an FTA and bilaterals with the EU (and yes I fully understand that their are other views).
So the no dealers believe that as the election comes ever closer the Tory party will move towards this position to be competitive at the next GE.