> @SandyRentool said: > Well it looks like Tezzie has achieved a cross-party consensus. > > > Everyone is telling her to do one.
A bit like here in NYC the other day when Bill de Blasio announced his run for Prez and had protesters from both the NYPD police union and Black Lives Matter shout "Liar!" at him!
Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
Yes I think you're right - it was the key question that Peston asked and by not answering it (another "legal" obligation, say) she will have given Lab an out.
What has changed, of course is the insurance required by Lab that a successor won't throw out whatever deal has been negotiated by May because parliament will be given a say over three key elements - nature of customs union (ie vote on a temporary one until the next GE so that if Lab wins they can convert it into a permanent one); shape, direction and content of the negotiations for the future agreement; and, of course, 2nd ref.
Which brings us back to Peston's question.
Honestly I don't really understand this aspect. Parliament can't bind future governments, I thought. Does that change just because the bill parliament passes says "No actually in this case we really are binding you"? Is there any precedent or statement from (presumably) the speaker saying that this could be done?
As @rpjs has pointed out it is Parliament binding the current government!
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @nico67 said: > > Oh dear May offering things that MPs could have added on in terms of amendments anyway. > > > > I think she’s lost it big time . > > Looks like it but nothing changes - total deadlock
It’s rather tragic . It’s becoming the political version of Sunset Boulevard with May playing the role of Norma Desmond , the fading starlet who can’t admit her times up!
> @TGOHF said: > Put no funds for the EU in a finance bill - make it a vote of confidence. > > Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...
Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
> @CarlottaVance said: > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465 > > > > Except eventually there will be a GE. If we are not out, then God knows what will happen. But Labour winning isn't the likeliest. > > Another parliament incapable of reaching a consensus is likeliest.
Quite likely. However, within that outcome the composition of the next parliament could still be materially different from the present if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
> @TGOHF said: > Put no funds for the EU in a finance bill - make it a vote of confidence. > > Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...
FTPA. Only "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government" constitutes a vote of confidence.
> @TGOHF said: > How does one make it a vote of confidence? > > A budget - confidence and supply. > > The EU can keep us in for free if it likes. > > Gotta get inventive..
They've already agreed to keep us in the good bits of the EU (excluding the CAP, CFP, and political structures) for free. It's called the backstop.
if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics!
How?
By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG...
We are as a No Dealer succeeds Theresa May and says No Deal will be easy.
It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.
Nawh. We're not leaving. I've been eating my Brexit box supplies these last few weeks and don't feel minded to start stockpiling again in August.
Whilst it might be said asking to vote again is EU style, it's better to say that countries in the EU have form at voting again. As we're still an EU country at the moment, I reckon its 2nd referendum at some point down the line, with Remain on the ballot paper. Just to be fair, they're given a 33 million vote headstart. It's the only way to be sure.
Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
What was Peston’s question, please.
Parliament gets a vote on 2nd Ref etc but will the govt honour the vote result?
> The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
>
> Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> @williamglenn said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Glenn, the problem is who 'we' is. > > > > The 'we' you refer to was Blair specifically, and the political class generally, both of which are far more pro-EU than the populace, and were also content to use the EU as a scapegoat. It's not entirely dissimilar to the approach the Lib Dems took the Coalition. > > > -------------- > > The Tory party voted unanimously in Parliament for EU expansion, and it was arguably the culmination of the most successful pieces of post-war foreign policy from a Conservative government that helped bring the Cold War to a peaceful conclusion.
> @TOPPING said: > Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted. > > > > Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be. > > What was Peston’s question, please. > > > Parliament gets a vote on 2nd Ref etc but will the govt honour the vote result?
They could have had a vote anyway as an amendment could be added to the Bill . It’s a worthless pledge .
> The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
>
> Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
Anyone who remembers Ronnie Scotts on Greek St when Ronnie was alive will remember how he started his set with a few jokes. The jokes never changed. Maybe he didn't expect his clients to come back? With his gravelly voice and his mouth touching the mike he'd start "If Ty-phoo but the tea in BriTain who put the cunt in Scunthorpe" He'd then insult Scunthorpe until he started playing. Why he picked on Scunthorpe was a mystery.
I couldn't help wonder if he'd lived whether today he might have felt vindicated. This is a place which is about to lose four thousand jobs directly and up to 20,000 secondary jobs as their steel mill closes as a result of Brexit which the town voted for by over 63%.
Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
What was Peston’s question, please.
Parliament gets a vote on 2nd Ref etc but will the govt honour the vote result?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > May needs to go on Monday. > > > > This is an utter utter waste of time. > > > > Not Monday. Now. > > Monday is a bank holiday but I agree TM has run out of road and needs to go now
Lovely to have election night on PB with a day off to recover.
> The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
>
> Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
To which the answer will be “See you in court.”
Still you have made the only good argument for No Deal Brexit I’ve seen. It will provide loads and loads of work for lawyers. Loads.
> @TGOHF said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this > > > > > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup. > > > > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change. > > > > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen > > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed. > > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required. > > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back? > > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line.
Congrats, ultra-remainers, you went from a deal you could have stomached, to the absolute worst case.
So, I've not been online today, so have the Tory response to May been apoplectic or incandescent?> @DoubleD said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > It's uncomfortable to watch - an Impossible Woman in an Impossible Position. > > her own fault. Could have left on 29th March. Useless woman
That, at least, was not her fault. She wanted to leave by then and those who claim to want Brexit stopped it from happening, knowing full well that parliament would prevent no deal - indeed, that was why so many did eventually cave in on the deal.
For all the shit that May does deserve, that does not mean she should get shit which she does not deserve, or that others get to escape their part in this shit.
Just popping in to say that I would support this WAB if I was an MP.
It’s a route to Brexit, but it offers a fair and decent set of compromises to Remainer concerns.
Sadly I seem to be in rather small company with Mrs May herself and, er, Liam Fox.
My contempt for those who won’t vote for it because they see a chance to wreck the government (this applies to both ERGers and the Labour Party) is unlimited.
> @DoubleD said: > Mrs May proving she was always a remainer. Deception. Killed the party too.
Ridiculous. She spends years working for us to leave, cannot get it through, so trys anything to get any type of leave through to avoid us actually remaining. Yes, that's what a remainer would do alright.
> @nico67 said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this > > > > > > > > > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup. > > > > > > > > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change. > > > > > > > > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen > > > > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed. > > > > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required. > > > > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back? > > > > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it. > > Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line
Except electing a no-dealer to lead the ERG rump of the Tories doesn't actually get them no deal...
> @Andrew said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425 > > > Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line. > > Congrats, ultra-remainers, you went from a deal you could have stomached, to the absolute worst case. >
----------------- They see victory ahead, and might be right. They have never cared about the price of failure anymore than their comrades in arms, the Brexiteers.
> @rpjs said: > > It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with. -------
If they kick up a fuss we'll just tell them they ought to know that no British parliament can bind its successor.
> > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> >
> >
> >
> > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
> >
> >
> >
> > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
> >
> > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
> >
> > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
> >
> > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> >
> > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
> @Gardenwalker said: > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed. > > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
He will probably go the no deal route, then ask for GE hoping his legendary skills (in his mind) will see the Tories somehow get a majority for no deal, and who gives a crap if no deal is bad for the country (I suspect he thinks that, even if Baker and the true believers do not). He probably won't get it and Brexit will eb cancelled eventually.
Ever since the Brexit Party came on the scene there was only one option for the next Tory leader, and that was no deal support.
> One: this isn't a prosecution. It's an inquiry. Selective prosecution is not illegal and does not amount to discrimination. Prosecutors and regulatory authorities make decisions all the time about when to take action and when not and, provided the reasons for doing so are in compliance with the law and relevant guidelines and not arbitrary or taken for the wrong reasons, it is ok for an authority to go after X and not Y. > > Two: discrimination for unjustified reasons is wrong. Making an inquiry of a newly established party to ensure that they are complying with the rules is not disproportionate because a new party with little or no experience may - and often is - more likely to make mistakes than an established one. It may also be necessary to go after established parties because they can be complacent and also make mistakes. > > Three: deciding that your priority is X rather than Y, provided that assessment is made on reasonable justifiable grounds rather than arbitrary ones, is absolutely consistent with applying the law equally to all. Your example about black people complaining about the stop and search laws is consistent with this because in those cases there was no reasonable justifiable grounds for stopping them other than prejudice. > > > "Why don't you pick on him and not just me" is the cry of the child in the playground not of grown ups.
Many things which get said in the playground, like "he started it" or "she got more than me" or "wasn't me" embody a perfectly correct understanding of principles of justice which also apply as between adults. So does "Why don't you pick on him and not just me."
You seem unduly keen to give the authorities a free ride because they are the authorities. Disproportionately investigating a party because you dislike its politics, *if* that is what is happening, is patently an abuse of public office.
What a pile of drivel. I doubt she believes it for a start, but seriously, I'm supposed to be appalled at the 'entitlement' of someone saying they love their job as PM? Especially with the most likely successor someone who is so entitled his outriders moan about how dare he be kept out of a leadership contest under the rules, and they must be changes to accomodate him (even if not by name, we know who is meant).
> @TGOHF said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > > > > > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen > > > > > > > > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed. > > > > > > > > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required. > > > > > > > > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back? > > > > > > > > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it. > > > > > > Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK , > > > > It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with. > > Or simply don’t ask for an extension.
Parliament can force the government to ask for one.
> @Gardenwalker said: > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed. > > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again).
In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange.
You could call it the Eton syndrome. Or, as the poet Matthew Arnold put it, “that buoyant ease in holding up one’s head, speaking out what is in one’s mind, and flinging off all sheepishness and awkwardness”.
Scientists have found that the higher someone rates their social class, the more likely they are to overestimate their talents. They also found evidence, perhaps relevant to Westminster, that this overconfidence can promote people beyond their competence.
Researchers measured the extent to which 150,000 people from different social classes overrated their performance in a cognitive test. They were all small business owners in Mexico applying for loans. They had to give details about their income and background and indicate their perceived social class on an image of a ladder “representing where people stand in your country”. After a test of memory and intelligence, the psychologists asked a final question — how did the applicant think they did, compared with other people?
The findings were clear: the higher someone perceived their social class to be, the more likely they were to unjustly inflate their relative performance.
> @Gardenwalker said: > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed. > > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
One characteristic he shares with her is the capacity to reverse positions without a hint of shame or an apology. So yes, he will be able to back-peddle when the time comes. He may even get away with it.
Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though.
Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.
> Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again).
In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange.
> @Gardenwalker said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed. > > > > > > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May. > > > > Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again). > > > > In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange. > > Can you serve duck a l’orange on toast?
> @nico67 said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this > > > > > > > > > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup. > > > > > > > > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change. > > > > > > > > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen > > > > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed. > > > > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required. > > > > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back? > > > > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it. > > Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
This is absolutely right. Leaving the EU without a deal is not a great result but I believe it is better than remaining. That of course is a personal view many disagree with. But refusing to pay our legal obligations is another matter entirely and not a step any government should ever countenance.
That does not necessarily mean paying what the EU say we owe as it is already generally accepted that at least part of that is not legally binding and is just the EU trying it on. But monies we have already agreed to pay such as the commitments to the end of the current budgetary cycle should be paid without question.
> @Scott_P said: > Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line > > Except electing a no-dealer to lead the ERG rump of the Tories doesn't actually get them no deal... > > Revoke is as close today as it has ever been
Wow! Just checked Betfair and it's down to 2.9. Been edging down for a while but that's a sudden shift.
> Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
He will probably go the no deal route, then ask for GE hoping his legendary skills (in his mind) will see the Tories somehow get a majority for no deal, and who gives a crap if no deal is bad for the country (I suspect he thinks that, even if Baker and the true believers do not). He probably won't get it and Brexit will eb cancelled eventually.
Ever since the Brexit Party came on the scene there was only one option for the next Tory leader, and that was no deal support.
Yes. The Brexit Party has toxified any further negotiations with the EU as far as the Tories are concerned; for them No Deal is now the only game in town. I suspect Boris will just hope that a combination of his buccaneering rhetoric, Corbyn and a hefty slice of luck will see him through.
> @kle4 said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > European Parliament voting intention: > > > > BREX: 32% (+1) > > LAB: 22% (-1) > > LDEM: 14% (-2) > > CON: 12% (+3) > > GRN: 7% (-2) > > CHUK: 5% (+1) > > UKIP 3% (+1) > > > > via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May > > > > Leave 69% > > 2nd Ref. 19% > > Revoke 5% > > Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though. > > Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.
I think Lab will be just less than 20% (19.6%). Tories about 15%
> One: this isn't a prosecution. It's an inquiry. Selective prosecution is not illegal and does not amount to discrimination. Prosecutors and regulatory authorities make decisions all the time about when to take action and when not and, provided the reasons for doing so are in compliance with the law and relevant guidelines and not arbitrary or taken for the wrong reasons, it is ok for an authority to go after X and not Y.
>
> Two: discrimination for unjustified reasons is wrong. Making an inquiry of a newly established party to ensure that they are complying with the rules is not disproportionate because a new party with little or no experience may - and often is - more likely to make mistakes than an established one. It may also be necessary to go after established parties because they can be complacent and also make mistakes.
>
> Three: deciding that your priority is X rather than Y, provided that assessment is made on reasonable justifiable grounds rather than arbitrary ones, is absolutely consistent with applying the law equally to all. Your example about black people complaining about the stop and search laws is consistent with this because in those cases there was no reasonable justifiable grounds for stopping them other than prejudice.
>
>
> "Why don't you pick on him and not just me" is the cry of the child in the playground not of grown ups.
Many things which get said in the playground, like "he started it" or "she got more than me" or "wasn't me" embody a perfectly correct understanding of principles of justice which also apply as between adults. So does "Why don't you pick on him and not just me."
You seem unduly keen to give the authorities a free ride because they are the authorities. Disproportionately investigating a party because you dislike its politics, *if* that is what is happening, is patently an abuse of public office.
No. I am not giving the authorities a free ride. There is no evidence I have seen that the EC is abusing its powers. If there is I will be the first to criticise them.
I am criticising a political party which seems to think it ought to be exempt from scrutiny. And I am criticising their reaction to such scrutiny. Were I advising a financial entity which had just been set up (as I have done in the past) I would tell them to expect early scrutiny and would also advise them that making a public fuss in such a babyish way would be inadvisable. But behaving in a babyish way when challenged seems to be a bit of a Farage speciality.
Anyway they seem to have got a clean bill of health and the EC can now look at other parties and groupings.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @Scott_P said: > > Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line > > > > Except electing a no-dealer to lead the ERG rump of the Tories doesn't actually get them no deal... > > > > Revoke is as close today as it has ever been > > Wow! Just checked Betfair and it's down to 2.9. Been edging down for a while but that's a sudden shift.
What a pile of drivel. I doubt she believes it for a start, but seriously, I'm supposed to be appalled at the 'entitlement' of someone saying they love their job as PM? Especially with the most likely successor someone who is so entitled his outriders moan about how dare he be kept out of a leadership contest under the rules, and they must be changes to accomodate him (even if not by name, we know who is meant).
Indeed, well said. I met the weasel Letts once - he really is annoying as he looks.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425 > > Neither being pro-No Deal nor being in favour of Remaining are "fanatical" positions, they're just points of view which are entirely valid. ------------ It is the fervour by which people pursue their goals, with a willingness to risk any price to achieve it, which makes something fanatical. Saying it cannot be fanatical because it is valid to hold a point of view is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read.
People can for very good reason be in favour of remaining or no deal. Being willing to do so at any cost, as many clearly are, is to be a fanatical no dealer/remainer. I fail to see the concern here. Not ever leaver or remainer is a fanatic, nor even every no dealer, since some were willing to compromise in their desired goal in recognition that they might not get Brexit at all. But some are fanatics, and the attempt to suggest there are not is very amusing.
> @Gardenwalker said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed. > > > > > > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May. > > > > Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again). > > > > In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange. > > Can you serve duck a l’orange on toast?
LOL. Apologies for the mixed metaphor. Actually I was going to be a little more inventive and mention my favourite duck dish which is served with morello cherries but decided on orange at the last moment.
> @Scott_P said: > if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing. > > The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics! > > How? > > By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG... > > Ummmmmm
> @Scott_P said: > if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing. > > The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics! > > How? > > By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG... > > Ummmmmm
Not ummmmmm
The decision on where the Brexit Party stands in a GE is down to them (or even just Farage) and they can judge where based on the actions to date of Conservative MPs. To alter the balance of Conservative MPs between Leavers and Remainers in a future parliament there is no need for them to do a deal with anybody.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else. > > Well you're a Leaver so you'd say that's effective targeting.
They're not addressed to me they are addressed to the other resident of the house. They too voted leave, but sucks for the parties as they are disillusioned by parliament and will not vote ever again they say (the referendum was the first time they ever voted, and they even voted in the GE after that).
Personally I'm looking to see who deserves a pity vote the most while not being too objectionable.
> @ah009 said: > > @TOPPING said: > > What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all. > > Like when at school you had some big project or homework to do, and you left it too long and started it at 11pm the night before. Then after a couple of hours' work you realised you were doomed and a strange euphoria came over you. You fate was sealed but there was almost a sense of relief. > > Or was that just me?
> > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> >
> >
> >
> > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
> >
> >
> >
> > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
> >
> > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
> >
> > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
> >
> > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> >
> > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
Or simply don’t ask for an extension.
Your master strategies of the “no deal waves” and “we’re leaving, suck it up” ilk have proven laughably flawed. Simply reading back the overconfident posts from you and your kindred spirit Mortimer makes for premium comedy.
And his plan is? Another one who thinks shouting Brexit loudly will get it done, I assume?
It is a bad time to be a pragmatist in politics. Yes, some things being pragmatic would be a mistake, but making a virtue of 'belief' being all you need is seriously worrying, and now both Labour and the Tories are infested with people who seem to think their moral mission to Brexit or a Labour government or Remaining means there need be no compromise or consideration of anything that does fit inside the comfortable bubble of their most extreme supporters.
Comments
> Well it looks like Tezzie has achieved a cross-party consensus.
>
>
> Everyone is telling her to do one.
A bit like here in NYC the other day when Bill de Blasio announced his run for Prez and had protesters from both the NYPD police union and Black Lives Matter shout "Liar!" at him!
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465
It does look like it
> > @nico67 said:
> > Oh dear May offering things that MPs could have added on in terms of amendments anyway.
> >
> > I think she’s lost it big time .
>
> Looks like it but nothing changes - total deadlock
It’s rather tragic . It’s becoming the political version of Sunset Boulevard with May playing the role of Norma Desmond , the fading starlet who can’t admit her times up!
Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...
> Put no funds for the EU in a finance bill - make it a vote of confidence.
>
> Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...
How does one make it a vote of confidence?
The EU can keep us in for free if it likes.
Gotta get inventive..
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465
>
>
>
> Except eventually there will be a GE. If we are not out, then God knows what will happen. But Labour winning isn't the likeliest.
>
> Another parliament incapable of reaching a consensus is likeliest.
Quite likely. However, within that outcome the composition of the next parliament could still be materially different from the present if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
> Put no funds for the EU in a finance bill - make it a vote of confidence.
>
> Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...
FTPA. Only "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government" constitutes a vote of confidence.
> How does one make it a vote of confidence?
>
> A budget - confidence and supply.
>
> The EU can keep us in for free if it likes.
>
> Gotta get inventive..
They've already agreed to keep us in the good bits of the EU (excluding the CAP, CFP, and political structures) for free. It's called the backstop.
> https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1130881241086083072
Probability of him changing his mind after reading it?
My issue with this poll is it was conducted on 13 to 17 May .
It’s looking pretty old already.
How?
By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG...
Ummmmmm
Whilst it might be said asking to vote again is EU style, it's better to say that countries in the EU have form at voting again.
As we're still an EU country at the moment, I reckon its 2nd referendum at some point down the line, with Remain on the ballot paper. Just to be fair, they're given a 33 million vote headstart. It's the only way to be sure.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Glenn, the problem is who 'we' is.
> >
> > The 'we' you refer to was Blair specifically, and the political class generally, both of which are far more pro-EU than the populace, and were also content to use the EU as a scapegoat. It's not entirely dissimilar to the approach the Lib Dems took the Coalition.
> >
> --------------
>
> The Tory party voted unanimously in Parliament for EU expansion, and it was arguably the culmination of the most successful pieces of post-war foreign policy from a Conservative government that helped bring the Cold War to a peaceful conclusion.
And prevented deeper EU integration.
> Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.
>
>
>
> Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.
>
> What was Peston’s question, please.
>
>
> Parliament gets a vote on 2nd Ref etc but will the govt honour the vote result?
They could have had a vote anyway as an amendment could be added to the Bill . It’s a worthless pledge .
I couldn't help wonder if he'd lived whether today he might have felt vindicated. This is a place which is about to lose four thousand jobs directly and up to 20,000 secondary jobs as their steel mill closes as a result of Brexit which the town voted for by over 63%.
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465
>
>
>
> Except eventually there will be a GE. If we are not out, then God knows what will happen. But Labour winning isn't the likeliest.
Brexit Party will be a player at the next GE.
> It's uncomfortable to watch - an Impossible Woman in an Impossible Position.
her own fault. Could have left on 29th March. Useless woman
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > May needs to go on Monday.
> >
> > This is an utter utter waste of time.
> >
> > Not Monday. Now.
>
> Monday is a bank holiday but I agree TM has run out of road and needs to go now
Lovely to have election night on PB with a day off to recover.
How very considerate of the EU.
Do they stand Nationwide to really change politics, or do they a sleazy deal to stitch up the voters?
Still you have made the only good argument for No Deal Brexit I’ve seen. It will provide loads and loads of work for lawyers. Loads.
Starting to look as if it's literally going to be impossible for anyone to actually get it through - irrespective of the terms.
> > @TGOHF said:
>
> > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
>
> >
>
> > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
>
>
>
> And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
>
>
>
> If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
>
> If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
>
> Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
>
> What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
>
> No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
> https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425
Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line.
Congrats, ultra-remainers, you went from a deal you could have stomached, to the absolute worst case.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > It's uncomfortable to watch - an Impossible Woman in an Impossible Position.
>
> her own fault. Could have left on 29th March. Useless woman
That, at least, was not her fault. She wanted to leave by then and those who claim to want Brexit stopped it from happening, knowing full well that parliament would prevent no deal - indeed, that was why so many did eventually cave in on the deal.
For all the shit that May does deserve, that does not mean she should get shit which she does not deserve, or that others get to escape their part in this shit.
It’s a route to Brexit, but it offers a fair and decent set of compromises to Remainer concerns.
Sadly I seem to be in rather small company with Mrs May herself and, er, Liam Fox.
My contempt for those who won’t vote for it because they see a chance to wreck the government (this applies to both ERGers and the Labour Party) is unlimited.
> Mrs May proving she was always a remainer. Deception. Killed the party too.
Ridiculous. She spends years working for us to leave, cannot get it through, so trys anything to get any type of leave through to avoid us actually remaining. Yes, that's what a remainer would do alright.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> >
> > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> >
> >
> >
> > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
> >
> >
> >
> > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
> >
> > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
> >
> > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
> >
> > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> >
> > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
Revoke is as close today as it has ever been
He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
> Well done to everyone who backed Tories sub 10
>
> Greatest tipster of all time award for whoever tipped that.
Shall I tell the people who it was, TSE, or would you like to maintain your usual modesty?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425
>
>
> Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line.
>
> Congrats, ultra-remainers, you went from a deal you could have stomached, to the absolute worst case.
>
-----------------
They see victory ahead, and might be right. They have never cared about the price of failure anymore than their comrades in arms, the Brexiteers.
>
> It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
-------
If they kick up a fuss we'll just tell them they ought to know that no British parliament can bind its successor.
> Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
He will probably go the no deal route, then ask for GE hoping his legendary skills (in his mind) will see the Tories somehow get a majority for no deal, and who gives a crap if no deal is bad for the country (I suspect he thinks that, even if Baker and the true believers do not). He probably won't get it and Brexit will eb cancelled eventually.
Ever since the Brexit Party came on the scene there was only one option for the next Tory leader, and that was no deal support.
> One: this isn't a prosecution. It's an inquiry. Selective prosecution is not illegal and does not amount to discrimination. Prosecutors and regulatory authorities make decisions all the time about when to take action and when not and, provided the reasons for doing so are in compliance with the law and relevant guidelines and not arbitrary or taken for the wrong reasons, it is ok for an authority to go after X and not Y.
>
> Two: discrimination for unjustified reasons is wrong. Making an inquiry of a newly established party to ensure that they are complying with the rules is not disproportionate because a new party with little or no experience may - and often is - more likely to make mistakes than an established one. It may also be necessary to go after established parties because they can be complacent and also make mistakes.
>
> Three: deciding that your priority is X rather than Y, provided that assessment is made on reasonable justifiable grounds rather than arbitrary ones, is absolutely consistent with applying the law equally to all. Your example about black people complaining about the stop and search laws is consistent with this because in those cases there was no reasonable justifiable grounds for stopping them other than prejudice.
>
>
> "Why don't you pick on him and not just me" is the cry of the child in the playground not of grown ups.
Many things which get said in the playground, like "he started it" or "she got more than me" or "wasn't me" embody a perfectly correct understanding of principles of justice which also apply as between adults. So does "Why don't you pick on him and not just me."
You seem unduly keen to give the authorities a free ride because they are the authorities. Disproportionately investigating a party because you dislike its politics, *if* that is what is happening, is patently an abuse of public office.
Fiona Hill doubled as Mrs May’s fashion adviser, and the PM’s dress sense actually *improved* after she and Nick were sacked.
Remarkably shite, the pair of them.
> https://twitter.com/thequentinletts/status/1130886361622274048
What a pile of drivel. I doubt she believes it for a start, but seriously, I'm supposed to be appalled at the 'entitlement' of someone saying they love their job as PM? Especially with the most likely successor someone who is so entitled his outriders moan about how dare he be kept out of a leadership contest under the rules, and they must be changes to accomodate him (even if not by name, we know who is meant).
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1130892286068498432
BREX: 32% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (-2)
CON: 12% (+3)
GRN: 7% (-2)
CHUK: 5% (+1)
UKIP 3% (+1)
via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May
Leave 69%
2nd Ref. 19%
Revoke 5%
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > > @TGOHF said:
>
> > > > @TGOHF said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
>
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
>
> > >
>
> > > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
>
> > >
>
> > > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
>
> > >
>
> > > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
>
> > >
>
> > > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> >
>
> > Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
>
>
>
> It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
>
> Or simply don’t ask for an extension.
Parliament can force the government to ask for one.
> Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again).
In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange.
You could call it the Eton syndrome. Or, as the poet Matthew Arnold put it, “that buoyant ease in holding up one’s head, speaking out what is in one’s mind, and flinging off all sheepishness and awkwardness”.
Scientists have found that the higher someone rates their social class, the more likely they are to overestimate their talents. They also found evidence, perhaps relevant to Westminster, that this overconfidence can promote people beyond their competence.
Researchers measured the extent to which 150,000 people from different social classes overrated their performance in a cognitive test. They were all small business owners in Mexico applying for loans. They had to give details about their income and background and indicate their perceived social class on an image of a ladder “representing where people stand in your country”. After a test of memory and intelligence, the psychologists asked a final question — how did the applicant think they did, compared with other people?
The findings were clear: the higher someone perceived their social class to be, the more likely they were to unjustly inflate their relative performance.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-competence-is-no-match-for-confidence-5tvrhfcr2
> Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
One characteristic he shares with her is the capacity to reverse positions without a hint of shame or an apology. So yes, he will be able to back-peddle when the time comes. He may even get away with it.
> European Parliament voting intention:
>
> BREX: 32% (+1)
> LAB: 22% (-1)
> LDEM: 14% (-2)
> CON: 12% (+3)
> GRN: 7% (-2)
> CHUK: 5% (+1)
> UKIP 3% (+1)
>
> via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May
>
> Leave 69%
> 2nd Ref. 19%
> Revoke 5%
Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though.
Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.
Wouldn't be surprised if LibDems finish 4th now tbh.
UKIP and the Chukka party seem dead also, which should simplify polling for the next general at least.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
> > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> >
>
> > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
>
>
>
> Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again).
>
>
>
> In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange.
>
> Can you serve duck a l’orange on toast?
Do you get a shake with that?
> https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425
Neither being pro-No Deal nor being in favour of Remaining are "fanatical" positions, they're just points of view which are entirely valid.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> >
> > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> >
> >
> >
> > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
> >
> >
> >
> > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
> >
> > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
> >
> > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
> >
> > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> >
> > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,
This is absolutely right. Leaving the EU without a deal is not a great result but I believe it is better than remaining. That of course is a personal view many disagree with. But refusing to pay our legal obligations is another matter entirely and not a step any government should ever countenance.
That does not necessarily mean paying what the EU say we owe as it is already generally accepted that at least part of that is not legally binding and is just the EU trying it on. But monies we have already agreed to pay such as the commitments to the end of the current budgetary cycle should be paid without question.
> Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line
>
> Except electing a no-dealer to lead the ERG rump of the Tories doesn't actually get them no deal...
>
> Revoke is as close today as it has ever been
Wow! Just checked Betfair and it's down to 2.9. Been edging down for a while but that's a sudden shift.
https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1130866154518568960
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > European Parliament voting intention:
> >
> > BREX: 32% (+1)
> > LAB: 22% (-1)
> > LDEM: 14% (-2)
> > CON: 12% (+3)
> > GRN: 7% (-2)
> > CHUK: 5% (+1)
> > UKIP 3% (+1)
> >
> > via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May
> >
> > Leave 69%
> > 2nd Ref. 19%
> > Revoke 5%
>
> Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though.
>
> Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.
I think Lab will be just less than 20% (19.6%). Tories about 15%
> European Parliament voting intention:
>
>
>
> BREX: 32% (+1)
>
> LAB: 22% (-1)
>
> LDEM: 14% (-2)
>
> CON: 12% (+3)
>
> GRN: 7% (-2)
>
> CHUK: 5% (+1)
>
> UKIP 3% (+1)
>
>
>
>
> Wouldn't be surprised if LibDems finish 4th now tbh.
>
> UKIP and the Chukka party seem dead also, which should simplify polling for the next general at least.
I am surprised how many Labour voters round here are voting LD or Green, but may not be representative of other places.
I am criticising a political party which seems to think it ought to be exempt from scrutiny. And I am criticising their reaction to such scrutiny. Were I advising a financial entity which had just been set up (as I have done in the past) I would tell them to expect early scrutiny and would also advise them that making a public fuss in such a babyish way would be inadvisable. But behaving in a babyish way when challenged seems to be a bit of a Farage speciality.
Anyway they seem to have got a clean bill of health and the EC can now look at other parties and groupings.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line
> >
> > Except electing a no-dealer to lead the ERG rump of the Tories doesn't actually get them no deal...
> >
> > Revoke is as close today as it has ever been
>
> Wow! Just checked Betfair and it's down to 2.9. Been edging down for a while but that's a sudden shift.
£/€ 1.33 indicates the market view
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425
>
> Neither being pro-No Deal nor being in favour of Remaining are "fanatical" positions, they're just points of view which are entirely valid.
------------
It is the fervour by which people pursue their goals, with a willingness to risk any price to achieve it, which makes something fanatical. Saying it cannot be fanatical because it is valid to hold a point of view is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read.
People can for very good reason be in favour of remaining or no deal. Being willing to do so at any cost, as many clearly are, is to be a fanatical no dealer/remainer. I fail to see the concern here. Not ever leaver or remainer is a fanatic, nor even every no dealer, since some were willing to compromise in their desired goal in recognition that they might not get Brexit at all. But some are fanatics, and the attempt to suggest there are not is very amusing.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1130825147290726400
> > @Gardenwalker said:
>
> > Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.
>
> >
>
> > He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.
>
>
>
> Depends on whether he actually believes that a No Deal is survivable or not. If he does then he sits on his hands and waits for October. If not then he does as you say and breaks his word (yet again).
>
>
>
> In the former case he might survive. In the latter he is toast. Forget Lame Duck. He will be Duck a l'Orange.
>
> Can you serve duck a l’orange on toast?
LOL. Apologies for the mixed metaphor. Actually I was going to be a little more inventive and mention my favourite duck dish which is served with morello cherries but decided on orange at the last moment.
> if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
>
> The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics!
>
> How?
>
> By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG...
>
> Ummmmmm
> @Scott_P said:
> if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
>
> The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics!
>
> How?
>
> By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG...
>
> Ummmmmm
Not ummmmmm
The decision on where the Brexit Party stands in a GE is down to them (or even just Farage) and they can judge where based on the actions to date of Conservative MPs. To alter the balance of Conservative MPs between Leavers and Remainers in a future parliament there is no need for them to do a deal with anybody.
> Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else.
BXP, UKIP, LD and Labour so far for me, not had anything from the Greens or Cons.
> Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else.
>
> Well you're a Leaver so you'd say that's effective targeting.
They're not addressed to me they are addressed to the other resident of the house. They too voted leave, but sucks for the parties as they are disillusioned by parliament and will not vote ever again they say (the referendum was the first time they ever voted, and they even voted in the GE after that).
Personally I'm looking to see who deserves a pity vote the most while not being too objectionable.
> > @TOPPING said:
> > What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all.
>
> Like when at school you had some big project or homework to do, and you left it too long and started it at 11pm the night before. Then after a couple of hours' work you realised you were doomed and a strange euphoria came over you. You fate was sealed but there was almost a sense of relief.
>
> Or was that just me?
Not just you!
> Not a fan.
>
> https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1130866154518568960
And his plan is? Another one who thinks shouting Brexit loudly will get it done, I assume?
It is a bad time to be a pragmatist in politics. Yes, some things being pragmatic would be a mistake, but making a virtue of 'belief' being all you need is seriously worrying, and now both Labour and the Tories are infested with people who seem to think their moral mission to Brexit or a Labour government or Remaining means there need be no compromise or consideration of anything that does fit inside the comfortable bubble of their most extreme supporters.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/21/philip-hammond-determined-assassinate-brexit-reaches-climax/
> Stewart Jackson: Philip Hammond is determined to assassinate Brexit
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/21/philip-hammond-determined-assassinate-brexit-reaches-climax/
Brexiteers should not have handed him the pistol then, so he would not have gotten the chance.