politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chaos continues as MPs reject all options Brexit
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I have already raised the topic with a friend in the military...Floater said:
Lets keep that in mind for if Corbyn gets in :-)RochdalePioneers said:It's at times like this I can understand the appeal of military coups
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Not sure that is a great plan for your party Mr Hammond......Scott_P said:0 -
More to the point, while I agree the deal just won't pass and something else should be tried, it makes no sense to claim that it is unreasonable to take the MV 4 times but ok to take other things 3 times, or 4 times or however many times it takes.MarqueeMark said:
There is no other deal on offer from the EU. It is entirely appropriate to offer their deal again before we default to No Deal.Jonathan said:
Mays deal lost three times. The onus is on the govt to offer something new. Perhaps something for the opposition this time. You know what we want. Protection for jobs and protection against what we see a deregulated free market Brexit. The right wing ultras will have to lose some of their so called trade deals. Go on, give it a try.MaxPB said:
Then give labour MPs a free vote when MV4 comes back. The government just did it for Tory MPs. Loads of them voted for the customs union which is against current policy.Jonathan said:
Absolutely. Labour did it’s bit. If Corbyn can whip for Ken Clarke he has moved a loooooong way.Danny565 said:
Quite a lot of MPs (including Corbyn) voted for multiple options tonight, actually.Slackbladder said:
Why? No one else is.Jonathan said:
They need to pick their second favourite now, that’s the point.Slackbladder said:
That's because most tories support Mays deal... no brainerJonathan said:0 -
You are quite insane, aren’t you?Philip_Thompson said:
I think you're right and if that happens the ERG and DUP should be lauded as heroes.Big_G_NorthWales said:I would assume the ERG are on top of the world tonight as the legislation to stop no deal and approve our participation in the EU elections will not receive royal assent by a week on friday
TM attending the EU brexit crisis meeting on the 10th April will have the EU in a spin and the Irish Border will become the EU and Varadkar's worst nightmare, as they either put up a border or agree to no borders as predicted by the ERG and DUP
I would expect some form of transistion to no deal
It is more than possible, but equally HMG could have fallen in the meantime
It is a win/win scenario.
The EU puts up a border and Varadkar will be slaughtered for screwing this up and they'll want a deal to get the border back down and goodbye backstop.
Or more likely as the ERG/DUP have said all along they don't put up a border, the bluff is called. Talks can begin to get a deal without the backstop.
Either way talks can begin on equals having stood up and refused to kowtow.0 -
I too really thought it would pass
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11127233811352657920 -
Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?0
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Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?0
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A second referendum, with remain as an option, is the only truly democratic way forward.Scott_P said:0 -
Golden rule...Peston predictions...kle4 said:I too really thought it would pass
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11127233811352657920 -
Hard to disagree with Widdy there...williamglenn said:Anne Widdecombe says it's the worst Prime Minister since Eden, worst opposition leader in the history of the Labour party, and worst Parliament since Cromwell.
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Brexit means Brexit.....dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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It’s a shame. The hunt for a majority goes on, We need May to budge now. Hopefully she will do it, choose country over party and disappoint Francois, Baker and their motley crew.kle4 said:I too really thought it would pass
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11127233811352657920 -
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Is there a 'Never! Never' column?Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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As is the other option - revoke. MPs still seem to be voting on theoretical scenarios despite them coming into effect within days.MarqueeMark said:
There is no other deal on offer from the EU. It is entirely appropriate to offer their deal again before we default to No Deal.Jonathan said:
Mays deal lost three times. The onus is on the govt to offer something new. Perhaps something for the opposition this time. You know what we want. Protection for jobs and protection against what we see a deregulated free market Brexit. The right wing ultras will have to lose some of their so called trade deals. Go on, give it a try.MaxPB said:
Then give labour MPs a free vote when MV4 comes back. The government just did it for Tory MPs. Loads of them voted for the customs union which is against current policy.Jonathan said:
Absolutely. Labour did it’s bit. If Corbyn can whip for Ken Clarke he has moved a loooooong way.Danny565 said:
Quite a lot of MPs (including Corbyn) voted for multiple options tonight, actually.Slackbladder said:
Why? No one else is.Jonathan said:
They need to pick their second favourite now, that’s the point.Slackbladder said:
That's because most tories support Mays deal... no brainerJonathan said:
It seems inevitable however that MPs even at the wire will vote neither for the deal nor for revike0 -
Phillip Hammond is not very good at politics. Fortunately he is a reasonable chancellor.rottenborough said:0 -
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
And what?Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
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It's beyond her, hence such a big no deal risk. She needs Cabinet Members to quit and take the decision for her. Parliament really missed a trick tonight.Jonathan said:
It’s a shame. The hunt for a majority goes on, We need May to budge now. Hopefully she will do it, choose country over party and disappoint Francois, Baker and their motley crew.kle4 said:I too really thought it would pass
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1112723381135265792
Please,please no more debate. Just vote upon vote upon vote until something is picked or no deal or the heat death of the sun.0 -
Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...ExiledInScotland said:
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:
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A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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Then watch their backbenchers start sharpening the knives cheered on by their associationsScott_P said:0 -
The final part is true, although parliament also failed to agree a referendum, so it's not a freat way out either sadly.Scott_P said:0 -
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850kle4 said:
I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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I think most MPs who voted for either of then voted for both of them, but the criticism is for the MPs who only voted for one of the two.williamglenn said:
To be fair to Nick Boles, he did vote for a People's Vote today after saying he wouldn't.OblitusSumMe said:The Common Market 2.0 criticism of People Vote MPs is classic pot kettle black name-calling. They're both as bad as each other - "you have to compromise by agreeing with me" is astonishingly infantile.
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In all seriousness it really should be whipped MV3 now, with threatened deselections. I doubt it would make a difference in the numbers, or that much would happen, but at the end of the day it is time to see just how many Tories will put their Brexit or Remainer fervour over their seats.0
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But what is the Question?rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.Scott_P said:0 -
May be another situation where May may be annoyed parliament didn't quite vote against her the way she could have worked with. Without a majority for anything its right back where she didn't want it - in her hands. Now if she proposed something different to her deal it is her capitulating to something the House defeated!rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850kle4 said:
I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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Sounds like wishful thinking. Leadsom would never back CU.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850kle4 said:
I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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More Conservative abstentions on a People's Vote than on Clarke's Customs Union.0
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People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.Cyclefree said:
At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.Scott_P said:0 -
But getting Brexit "over the line" in that case would still most likely involve a long extension, and a binding commitment to a customs union that a future Tory leader can't wriggle out of, before enough Labour MPs come on board.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850kle4 said:
I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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And that criticism is entirely valid. If the PV 33 had voted for CM2.0, it would have won.OblitusSumMe said:
I think most MPs who voted for either of then voted for both of them, but the criticism is for the MPs who only voted for one of the two.williamglenn said:
To be fair to Nick Boles, he did vote for a People's Vote today after saying he wouldn't.OblitusSumMe said:The Common Market 2.0 criticism of People Vote MPs is classic pot kettle black name-calling. They're both as bad as each other - "you have to compromise by agreeing with me" is astonishingly infantile.
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The country would no doubt choose a referendum option and a party which bitterly opposed that option at the same time.rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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I used to labour under the misapprehension that the Eurosceptic boil Cameron wished to lance was a euphemism.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I'm not one for violence, but I'd stand in a queue all day long to punch him in the face.Nigelb said:
Console yourself with the thought Francois never will.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
He just made a reasonable point on Newsnight, and now I don't know what to do.another_richard said:
Who is more despised on PB - Burgon or Francois ?RochdalePioneers said:Oh fuck. That waste of skin Burgon is on Newsnight
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So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.Danny565 said:
Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...ExiledInScotland said:
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
Unless there's a tie there will always be a majority against one of the options in a referendum.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
What you do is make sure that the change that is proposed is supported by the legislature as they don't need to do anything to implement the status quo.0 -
Must be why Boles was so pissed - he thought he had it in the bag.Jonathan said:
It’s a shame. The hunt for a majority goes on, We need May to budge now. Hopefully she will do it, choose country over party and disappoint Francois, Baker and their motley crew.kle4 said:I too really thought it would pass
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1112723381135265792
It was not Tories that he should have been railing at. It was other parties' MPs who didn't support him.0 -
Ashcroft finds significant support both for a new socially conservative pro Brexit Party similar to Farage's proposed Brexit party and a pro EU centrist party similar to TIG
'New Party A would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit.'
'New Party B, meanwhile, would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state'
He finds Party A would get 24%, Party B 27%, the Tories 18%, Labour 14% and the LDs 5%, the Greens 4% and UKIP 3%
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/lord-ashcroft-the-space-for-a-new-party-isnt-just-in-the-centre-of-politics.html
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Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?0
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I've said that a few times on here. The problem is it might produce contradictory outcomes because 45% is enough to win a majority in the HoC, but at the same time it obviously loses a referendum by 10 points.rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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By the way, what happened to the promised £1 billion investment from JLR? German manufacturers are planning an investment of €57 billion over the next three years in electric and autonomous cars. I don't think our current £500 million a year is going to leave our manufacturing in a viable state.0
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2019 election still 1.91 in some shops. What routes to Christmas are there that don't have an election?
No deal loses the DUP and half a dozen Tory Remain hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
May/Barnier Deal loses the DUP and a dozen ERG hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
2.0 and CU loses the DUP and many more ERG hardliners. Ditto.
PV loses pretty much all the ERG. Ditto.
Extension for whatever other non-GE reason loses all the ERG.
Revoke loses about 170 Con MPs.
One of those, surely, has to happen in the next 10 days.
Surely the only points in favour of no GE for 2019 are (1) it's Theresa May (2) the DUP might be quite fond of their power (3) the DUP might not be keen on IRA sympathiser Corbyn as PM (4) neither Con nor Lab exactly have an election war chest right now. But on 2 and 3 the DUP don't quite have the numbers to make the difference.
Thoughts?0 -
To be or not to be - THAT is the questionrottenborough said:
But what is the Question?rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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Boles Abstentions - Grieve, Gyimah, Greening !!0
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On the other hand they might pony up if May goes and the alternative is CorbynAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?
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They certainly managed to fuck fund raising business.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?
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I think you're absolutely right. Additionally despite having to display confidence I don't think Labour can be certain they would win. Additionally, in some of the scenarios the Tiggers and indepenents might not support a VONC so they can keep their seats (though I think in no deal they would)Drutt said:2019 election still 1.91 in some shops. What routes to Christmas are there that don't have an election?
No deal loses the DUP and half a dozen Tory Remain hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
May/Barnier Deal loses the DUP and a dozen ERG hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
2.0 and CU loses the DUP and many more ERG hardliners. Ditto.
PV loses pretty much all the ERG. Ditto.
Extension for whatever other non-GE reason loses all the ERG.
Revoke loses about 170 Con MPs.
One of those, surely, has to happen in the next 10 days.
Surely the only points in favour of no GE for 2019 are (1) it's Theresa May (2) the DUP might be quite fond of their power (3) the DUP might not be keen on IRA sympathiser Corbyn as PM (4) neither Con nor Lab exactly have an election war chest right now. But on 2 and 3 the DUP don't quite have the numbers to make the difference.
Thoughts?
But all the reasons against a 2019 GE pale in comparison to the seeming facts of who flounces in any Brexit outcome, as you detail.0 -
The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.ExiledInScotland said:
So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.Danny565 said:
Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...ExiledInScotland said:
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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All sorts of things could pass (including a motion to Revoke) if the government whipped for it, but it would be a government that no longer had a party.edmundintokyo said:0 -
On this thing about
Ministers have been invited to reading room from 8-9am to look at a single document before it kicks off
...it's about time the scriptwriters brought the main American storyline and the British subplot together, so... Brexit section from the Mueller Report?0 -
No it's nonsensical because by the same token there must have been MPs who voted for CM2.0 who didn't vote for PV. (Or similar on voting against)._Anazina_ said:
And that criticism is entirely valid. If the PV 33 had voted for CM2.0, it would have won.OblitusSumMe said:
I think most MPs who voted for either of then voted for both of them, but the criticism is for the MPs who only voted for one of the two.williamglenn said:
To be fair to Nick Boles, he did vote for a People's Vote today after saying he wouldn't.OblitusSumMe said:The Common Market 2.0 criticism of People Vote MPs is classic pot kettle black name-calling. They're both as bad as each other - "you have to compromise by agreeing with me" is astonishingly infantile.
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Macron would like the Channel Islands I'm sure.Chris said:
What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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Would need to be somewhere close now - Alderney perhaps?Chris said:
What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?rpjs said:
A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.glw said:
Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.dots said:Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
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There's no doubt the people who are most happy at the moment are Corbyn and McDonnell, because total chaos suits their agenda.0
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Why would the EU want a country with such a dysfunctional political class in charge? They can get that with the Greeks and Italians. And they get enough Euoscepticism from the Hungarians. No Deal suits them fine. Sure - it will hurt but they will cope with it far better than we will. And it gives them the opportunity to take as much of our industry and services as they can persuade to relocate to somewhere more politically stable, with tariff free access to a vastly bigger market and without the prospect of Corbyn and his loony policies coming down the track.kle4 said:
People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.Cyclefree said:
At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.Scott_P said:0 -
... but would prefer them to Corbyn and would have influence continue to 2022. That's a lot of pork.Y0kel said:
The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.ExiledInScotland said:
So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.Danny565 said:
Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...ExiledInScotland said:
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
One of our local Labour district councillors has just quit over antisemitism:
http://twitter.com/nellbelleandme/status/11128330851529236490 -
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The Sultan of Brunei will cough up.Floater said:
On the other hand they might pony up if May goes and the alternative is CorbynAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?
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Though I imagine they will mostly toe the line, I do wonder about the more Brexity of the Lab MPs right now. Various people are already suggesting the referendum and CU options be combined next time, how does that play with them? I really thought something would have passed and that would satisfy them because the really, really do not want to vote for the WA, but we're not at that point yet so what do they do next to avoid voting for the WA if the referendum option is pushed?0
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Unionist party first, that is blood not money.ExiledInScotland said:
... but would prefer them to Corbyn and would have influence continue to 2022. That's a lot of pork.Y0kel said:
The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.ExiledInScotland said:
So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.Danny565 said:
Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...ExiledInScotland said:
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
Plenty of rich Conservative MPs.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?
Can't the likes of Mogg donate the odd million ?0 -
My predictions this afternoon were amazingly close0
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They want us to be gone, but can't afford for us to do so lest they lose our contribution. Therefore they need us to remain.kle4 said:
People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.Cyclefree said:
At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.Scott_P said:0 -
That’s a good point. I don’t think it’s the No. 10 boost the times are splashing.kle4 said:
May be another situation where May may be annoyed parliament didn't quite vote against her the way she could have worked with. Without a majority for anything its right back where she didn't want it - in her hands. Now if she proposed something different to her deal it is her capitulating to something the House defeated!rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850kle4 said:
I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.Danny565 said:Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
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True. We cannot ignore that the Brexiteer position is wrapped in the mythos of the Union Jack, which resonates deeply for a lot of peopleY0kel said:
Unionist party first, that is blood not money.ExiledInScotland said:
... but would prefer them to Corbyn and would have influence continue to 2022. That's a lot of pork.Y0kel said:
The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.ExiledInScotland said:
So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.Danny565 said:
Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...ExiledInScotland said:
At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.dots said:
Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?rottenborough said:0 -
That's your view. Others seem to think they really want us to stay. If they wanted us gone for sure a little more flexibility would have been helpful, rather than encouraging our remainers.Cyclefree said:
Why would the EU want a country with such a dysfunctional political class in charge? They can get that with the Greeks and Italians. And they get enough Euoscepticism from the Hungarians. No Deal suits them fine. Sure - it will hurt but they will cope with it far better than we will. And it gives them the opportunity to take as much of our industry and services as they can persuade to relocate to somewhere more politically stable, with tariff free access to a vastly bigger market and without the prospect of Corbyn and his loony policies coming down the track.kle4 said:
People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.Cyclefree said:
At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.Scott_P said:0 -
In a scenario like that, I should think the way support was distributed would be more important than the headline figures. The Lib Dems/Alliance always suffered from a rather uniform distribution of support in contrast with Tory and Labour support having areas of concentration. Maybe the same would be true of TIG or Chuk, or whatever it's going to be called.HYUFD said:Ashcroft finds significant support both for a new socially conservative pro Brexit Party similar to Farage's proposed Brexit party and a pro EU centrist party similar to TIG
'New Party A would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit.'
'New Party B, meanwhile, would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state'
He finds Party A would get 24%, Party B 27%, the Tories 18%, Labour 14% and the LDs 5%, the Greens 4% and UKIP 3%
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/lord-ashcroft-the-space-for-a-new-party-isnt-just-in-the-centre-of-politics.html0 -
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They were.bigjohnowls said:My predictions this afternoon were amazingly close
Respect to you or the cider?0 -
Yup. All in it up to their necks. As was said some time ago, they're all just focused on avoiding blame. In fairness to jonathan he is right that Corbyn has moved a bit more than most.CarlottaVance said:
Night all - do it all again on Wednesday?0 -
I call total horseshit on that. The last official figures had Tories still getting more cash than the other parties, it is supposedly the next set where it will show a drop off.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?
However, if a GE is called, people will stump up the cash (just like the unions will for Labour).
I think what would be far worse for the Tories is I don't think they are organized. When they did well in 2010 / 2015, they sent a lot of time organizing, polling, focus groups etc. They had tested their messages and a good idea who to target.
2017 showed the opposite, not a f##king clue.
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Because this whole process is, of course, making staying in the Union/Better Together/Strong and Stable look like a blinding decision.williamglenn said:0 -
Though there will be some Conservatives who would be quite happy to get rid of all those non-Conservative Scottish MPs.williamglenn said:
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Yes and no. It is making the union look like crap and probably increasing support for indy, but it is demonstrating leaving anything is bloody torturous.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Because this whole process is, of course, making staying in the Union/Better Together/Strong and Stable look like a blinding decision.williamglenn said:0 -
🤔 I think he’s saying like they said in galaxy quest, the timer always stops on 1Scott_P said:0
