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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chaos continues as MPs reject all options Brexit

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  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Floater said:

    It's at times like this I can understand the appeal of military coups

    Lets keep that in mind for if Corbyn gets in :-)
    I have already raised the topic with a friend in the military...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:
    Not sure that is a great plan for your party Mr Hammond......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    No. No...he, he didn't really say that did he?! My brain is exploding right now.
    this country so needs the 25th amendment for MPs
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Jonathan said:

    Protection for jobs and protection against what we see a deregulated free market Brexit.

    Nice try, the Snell amendment would have been adopted if allowed by the Speaker. And amendments not being allowed are out of the power of the Gov't....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:
    That's because most tories support Mays deal... no brainer
    They need to pick their second favourite now, that’s the point.
    Why? No one else is.
    Quite a lot of MPs (including Corbyn) voted for multiple options tonight, actually.
    Absolutely. Labour did it’s bit. If Corbyn can whip for Ken Clarke he has moved a loooooong way.
    Then give labour MPs a free vote when MV4 comes back. The government just did it for Tory MPs. Loads of them voted for the customs union which is against current policy.
    Mays deal lost three times. The onus is on the govt to offer something new. Perhaps something for the opposition this time. You know what we want. Protection for jobs and protection against what we see a deregulated free market Brexit. The right wing ultras will have to lose some of their so called trade deals. Go on, give it a try.
    There is no other deal on offer from the EU. It is entirely appropriate to offer their deal again before we default to No Deal.
    More to the point, while I agree the deal just won't pass and something else should be tried, it makes no sense to claim that it is unreasonable to take the MV 4 times but ok to take other things 3 times, or 4 times or however many times it takes.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    I would assume the ERG are on top of the world tonight as the legislation to stop no deal and approve our participation in the EU elections will not receive royal assent by a week on friday

    TM attending the EU brexit crisis meeting on the 10th April will have the EU in a spin and the Irish Border will become the EU and Varadkar's worst nightmare, as they either put up a border or agree to no borders as predicted by the ERG and DUP

    I would expect some form of transistion to no deal

    It is more than possible, but equally HMG could have fallen in the meantime

    I think you're right and if that happens the ERG and DUP should be lauded as heroes.

    It is a win/win scenario.

    The EU puts up a border and Varadkar will be slaughtered for screwing this up and they'll want a deal to get the border back down and goodbye backstop.

    Or more likely as the ERG/DUP have said all along they don't put up a border, the bluff is called. Talks can begin to get a deal without the backstop.

    Either way talks can begin on equals having stood up and refused to kowtow.
    You are quite insane, aren’t you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    I too really thought it would pass
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1112723381135265792
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure that is a great plan for your party Mr Hammond......
    It's the only way out. Either May's deal wins and gets a mandate from the people, or we vote Remain, and anyone in the Tory party who can't handle that can leave.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited April 2019
    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:
    A second referendum, with remain as an option, is the only truly democratic way forward.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    kle4 said:
    Golden rule...Peston predictions...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    Anne Widdecombe says it's the worst Prime Minister since Eden, worst opposition leader in the history of the Labour party, and worst Parliament since Cromwell.

    Hard to disagree with Widdy there...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    & Drax.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    Brexit means Brexit.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    kle4 said:
    It’s a shame. The hunt for a majority goes on, We need May to budge now. Hopefully she will do it, choose country over party and disappoint Francois, Baker and their motley crew.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    OK, considering...












    Sorry sweet cheeks not happening! :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    Is there a 'Never! Never' column?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure that is a great plan for your party Mr Hammond......
    But it is for the country.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,855
    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure that is a great plan for your party Mr Hammond......
    But it is for the country.
    +1
  • Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:
    That's because most tories support Mays deal... no brainer
    They need to pick their second favourite now, that’s the point.
    Why? No one else is.
    Quite a lot of MPs (including Corbyn) voted for multiple options tonight, actually.
    Absolutely. Labour did it’s bit. If Corbyn can whip for Ken Clarke he has moved a loooooong way.
    Then give labour MPs a free vote when MV4 comes back. The government just did it for Tory MPs. Loads of them voted for the customs union which is against current policy.
    Mays deal lost three times. The onus is on the govt to offer something new. Perhaps something for the opposition this time. You know what we want. Protection for jobs and protection against what we see a deregulated free market Brexit. The right wing ultras will have to lose some of their so called trade deals. Go on, give it a try.
    There is no other deal on offer from the EU. It is entirely appropriate to offer their deal again before we default to No Deal.
    As is the other option - revoke. MPs still seem to be voting on theoretical scenarios despite them coming into effect within days.

    It seems inevitable however that MPs even at the wire will vote neither for the deal nor for revike
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    A second referendum, with remain as an option, is the only truly democratic way forward.
    More Remainer bullshit.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Phillip Hammond is not very good at politics. Fortunately he is a reasonable chancellor.
  • dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    A second referendum, with remain as an option, is the only truly democratic way forward.
    More Remainer bullshit.
    And what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:
    It’s a shame. The hunt for a majority goes on, We need May to budge now. Hopefully she will do it, choose country over party and disappoint Francois, Baker and their motley crew.
    It's beyond her, hence such a big no deal risk. She needs Cabinet Members to quit and take the decision for her. Parliament really missed a trick tonight.

    Please,please no more debate. Just vote upon vote upon vote until something is picked or no deal or the heat death of the sun.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,650
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why the disguise of a 'final ultimatum'? That's already been tried, if they think no deal is the way to go just bloody say so upfront.
    The point is not to achieve. The point is to blame.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
    Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
  • Scott_P said:
    Then watch their backbenchers start sharpening the knives cheered on by their associations
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Scott_P said:
    The final part is true, although parliament also failed to agree a referendum, so it's not a freat way out either sadly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The Common Market 2.0 criticism of People Vote MPs is classic pot kettle black name-calling. They're both as bad as each other - "you have to compromise by agreeing with me" is astonishingly infantile.

    To be fair to Nick Boles, he did vote for a People's Vote today after saying he wouldn't.
    I think most MPs who voted for either of then voted for both of them, but the criticism is for the MPs who only voted for one of the two.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    In all seriousness it really should be whipped MV3 now, with threatened deselections. I doubt it would make a difference in the numbers, or that much would happen, but at the end of the day it is time to see just how many Tories will put their Brexit or Remainer fervour over their seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,163
    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    But what is the Question?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Scott_P said:
    At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850
    May be another situation where May may be annoyed parliament didn't quite vote against her the way she could have worked with. Without a majority for anything its right back where she didn't want it - in her hands. Now if she proposed something different to her deal it is her capitulating to something the House defeated!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850
    Sounds like wishful thinking. Leadsom would never back CU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    More Conservative abstentions on a People's Vote than on Clarke's Customs Union.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.
    People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850
    But getting Brexit "over the line" in that case would still most likely involve a long extension, and a binding commitment to a customs union that a future Tory leader can't wriggle out of, before enough Labour MPs come on board.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    The Common Market 2.0 criticism of People Vote MPs is classic pot kettle black name-calling. They're both as bad as each other - "you have to compromise by agreeing with me" is astonishingly infantile.

    To be fair to Nick Boles, he did vote for a People's Vote today after saying he wouldn't.
    I think most MPs who voted for either of then voted for both of them, but the criticism is for the MPs who only voted for one of the two.
    And that criticism is entirely valid. If the PV 33 had voted for CM2.0, it would have won.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    The country would no doubt choose a referendum option and a party which bitterly opposed that option at the same time.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    Nigelb said:

    Oh fuck. That waste of skin Burgon is on Newsnight

    Who is more despised on PB - Burgon or Francois ?
    He just made a reasonable point on Newsnight, and now I don't know what to do.
    Console yourself with the thought Francois never will.
    I'm not one for violence, but I'd stand in a queue all day long to punch him in the face.
    I used to labour under the misapprehension that the Eurosceptic boil Cameron wished to lance was a euphemism.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The final part is true, although parliament also failed to agree a referendum, so it's not a freat way out either sadly.
    It was only just short with nearly all Tories voting against. It should go through if the government whips for it, albeit with a monster rebellion.
  • Danny565 said:

    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
    Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...
    So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    Unless there's a tie there will always be a majority against one of the options in a referendum.

    What you do is make sure that the change that is proposed is supported by the legislature as they don't need to do anything to implement the status quo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:
    It’s a shame. The hunt for a majority goes on, We need May to budge now. Hopefully she will do it, choose country over party and disappoint Francois, Baker and their motley crew.
    Must be why Boles was so pissed - he thought he had it in the bag.

    It was not Tories that he should have been railing at. It was other parties' MPs who didn't support him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Ashcroft finds significant support both for a new socially conservative pro Brexit Party similar to Farage's proposed Brexit party and a pro EU centrist party similar to TIG

    'New Party A would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit.'

    'New Party B, meanwhile, would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state'


    He finds Party A would get 24%, Party B 27%, the Tories 18%, Labour 14% and the LDs 5%, the Greens 4% and UKIP 3%



    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/lord-ashcroft-the-space-for-a-new-party-isnt-just-in-the-centre-of-politics.html
  • Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    I've said that a few times on here. The problem is it might produce contradictory outcomes because 45% is enough to win a majority in the HoC, but at the same time it obviously loses a referendum by 10 points.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    By the way, what happened to the promised £1 billion investment from JLR? German manufacturers are planning an investment of €57 billion over the next three years in electric and autonomous cars. I don't think our current £500 million a year is going to leave our manufacturing in a viable state.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    2019 election still 1.91 in some shops. What routes to Christmas are there that don't have an election?

    No deal loses the DUP and half a dozen Tory Remain hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
    May/Barnier Deal loses the DUP and a dozen ERG hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
    2.0 and CU loses the DUP and many more ERG hardliners. Ditto.
    PV loses pretty much all the ERG. Ditto.
    Extension for whatever other non-GE reason loses all the ERG.
    Revoke loses about 170 Con MPs.

    One of those, surely, has to happen in the next 10 days.

    Surely the only points in favour of no GE for 2019 are (1) it's Theresa May (2) the DUP might be quite fond of their power (3) the DUP might not be keen on IRA sympathiser Corbyn as PM (4) neither Con nor Lab exactly have an election war chest right now. But on 2 and 3 the DUP don't quite have the numbers to make the difference.

    Thoughts?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    But what is the Question?
    To be or not to be - THAT is the question
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Boles Abstentions - Grieve, Gyimah, Greening !!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Not sure that is a great plan for your party Mr Hammond......
    But it is for the country.
    Not if it leads to a Corbyn government it isn't.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    A second referendum, with remain My preferred outcome as an option, is the only truly democratic way forward.
    FIFY
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?

    On the other hand they might pony up if May goes and the alternative is Corbyn

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751

    Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?

    They certainly managed to fuck fund raising business.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Drutt said:

    2019 election still 1.91 in some shops. What routes to Christmas are there that don't have an election?

    No deal loses the DUP and half a dozen Tory Remain hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
    May/Barnier Deal loses the DUP and a dozen ERG hardliners. Minority, VONC lost, election.
    2.0 and CU loses the DUP and many more ERG hardliners. Ditto.
    PV loses pretty much all the ERG. Ditto.
    Extension for whatever other non-GE reason loses all the ERG.
    Revoke loses about 170 Con MPs.

    One of those, surely, has to happen in the next 10 days.

    Surely the only points in favour of no GE for 2019 are (1) it's Theresa May (2) the DUP might be quite fond of their power (3) the DUP might not be keen on IRA sympathiser Corbyn as PM (4) neither Con nor Lab exactly have an election war chest right now. But on 2 and 3 the DUP don't quite have the numbers to make the difference.

    Thoughts?

    I think you're absolutely right. Additionally despite having to display confidence I don't think Labour can be certain they would win. Additionally, in some of the scenarios the Tiggers and indepenents might not support a VONC so they can keep their seats (though I think in no deal they would)

    But all the reasons against a 2019 GE pale in comparison to the seeming facts of who flounces in any Brexit outcome, as you detail.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Danny565 said:

    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
    Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...
    So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.
    The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The final part is true, although parliament also failed to agree a referendum, so it's not a freat way out either sadly.
    It was only just short with nearly all Tories voting against. It should go through if the government whips for it, albeit with a monster rebellion.
    All sorts of things could pass (including a motion to Revoke) if the government whipped for it, but it would be a government that no longer had a party.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    edited April 2019
    On this thing about
    Ministers have been invited to reading room from 8-9am to look at a single document before it kicks off
    ...it's about time the scriptwriters brought the main American storyline and the British subplot together, so... Brexit section from the Mueller Report?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    _Anazina_ said:

    The Common Market 2.0 criticism of People Vote MPs is classic pot kettle black name-calling. They're both as bad as each other - "you have to compromise by agreeing with me" is astonishingly infantile.

    To be fair to Nick Boles, he did vote for a People's Vote today after saying he wouldn't.
    I think most MPs who voted for either of then voted for both of them, but the criticism is for the MPs who only voted for one of the two.
    And that criticism is entirely valid. If the PV 33 had voted for CM2.0, it would have won.
    No it's nonsensical because by the same token there must have been MPs who voted for CM2.0 who didn't vote for PV. (Or similar on voting against).
  • Chris said:

    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?
    Macron would like the Channel Islands I'm sure.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Chris said:

    rpjs said:

    glw said:

    dots said:

    Do you feel, in hindsight, do all this in the first instance 2016, and then put something to the electorate? The actual campaign couldn’t then have been full of so much airy-Fairy BS?

    Even planning doesn't solve the problem that around 70% of MPs are Remainers (in the closet or not). Calling a referendum when you are dead set against implementing one of the outcomes is a fundamentally bad idea, it leads to what we are seeing.
    A simultaneous referendum and GE might be the solution.
    What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?
    Would need to be somewhere close now - Alderney perhaps?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    There's no doubt the people who are most happy at the moment are Corbyn and McDonnell, because total chaos suits their agenda.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.
    People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.
    Why would the EU want a country with such a dysfunctional political class in charge? They can get that with the Greeks and Italians. And they get enough Euoscepticism from the Hungarians. No Deal suits them fine. Sure - it will hurt but they will cope with it far better than we will. And it gives them the opportunity to take as much of our industry and services as they can persuade to relocate to somewhere more politically stable, with tariff free access to a vastly bigger market and without the prospect of Corbyn and his loony policies coming down the track.
  • Y0kel said:

    Danny565 said:

    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
    Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...
    So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.
    The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.
    ... but would prefer them to Corbyn and would have influence continue to 2022. That's a lot of pork.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    One of our local Labour district councillors has just quit over antisemitism:

    http://twitter.com/nellbelleandme/status/1112833085152923649
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Boles Abstentions - Grieve, Gyimah, Greening !!

    Why didn't they support Boles?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Floater said:

    Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?

    On the other hand they might pony up if May goes and the alternative is Corbyn

    The Sultan of Brunei will cough up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Though I imagine they will mostly toe the line, I do wonder about the more Brexity of the Lab MPs right now. Various people are already suggesting the referendum and CU options be combined next time, how does that play with them? I really thought something would have passed and that would satisfy them because the really, really do not want to vote for the WA, but we're not at that point yet so what do they do next to avoid voting for the WA if the referendum option is pushed?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Chris said:

    What about a simultaneous referendum, GE and a small war somewhere? Can we get someone to invade some islands or something?

    We could annex Ireland. That'd solve the backstop issue, and the DUP would be nominating May as PM for life.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Danny565 said:

    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
    Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...
    So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.
    The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.
    ... but would prefer them to Corbyn and would have influence continue to 2022. That's a lot of pork.
    Unionist party first, that is blood not money.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boles Abstentions - Grieve, Gyimah, Greening !!

    Why didn't they support Boles?
    They oppose any form of Brexit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    edited April 2019

    Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?

    Plenty of rich Conservative MPs.

    Can't the likes of Mogg donate the odd million ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    My predictions this afternoon were amazingly close
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.
    People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.
    They want us to be gone, but can't afford for us to do so lest they lose our contribution. Therefore they need us to remain.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Is it safe to say we can move Nick Boles over to the "No" column if/when May's deal comes back for a vote?

    I think so. In all the drama, worth noting the deal is probably going backwards again after making progress last week. Particularly given apparently 200 Tory MPs are now saying they back no deal.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112841844273102850
    May be another situation where May may be annoyed parliament didn't quite vote against her the way she could have worked with. Without a majority for anything its right back where she didn't want it - in her hands. Now if she proposed something different to her deal it is her capitulating to something the House defeated!
    That’s a good point. I don’t think it’s the No. 10 boost the times are splashing.
  • Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    Danny565 said:

    dots said:

    Tory MPs coalescing around full fat brexit without any remainery lean?
    At the end of the day it's possibly their only choice. Revoke and their members and voters slaughter them. The PM's deal and their members slaughter them. Leave on 12 April and use the FTPA to avoid the electorate until 2022, using the time to work on making it work. Or something. But at least the PM will be gone and they stand a chance.
    Except that gets them no confidenced in Parliament...
    So how does that VONC pass exactly? If the DUP believe they can force the PM to exit, replaced by a more *ahem* supportive PM, they would prefer that to Corbyn. Tory MPs won't VONC themselves. The FTPA has changed just about everything.
    The DUP have talked to leading Brexiteers, they suspect that they'd sell them down the river so they are not entirely comfortable right now with some of the alternatives to May.
    ... but would prefer them to Corbyn and would have influence continue to 2022. That's a lot of pork.
    Unionist party first, that is blood not money.
    True. We cannot ignore that the Brexiteer position is wrapped in the mythos of the Union Jack, which resonates deeply for a lot of people
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    At this point the EU is probably more worried by the prospect of Britain revoking and staying in than No Deal. If she tries to threaten them with No Deal they will just ask us to shut the door on our way out.
    People go back and forth on this, quite inconsistently. Some thing the EU are very keen for us to remain, others think they are just sick of us and want us gone. Both cannot be right. Though the one thing we know does have a majority if they do want us gone is sort out the backstop, unfortunately that's a red line for them.
    Why would the EU want a country with such a dysfunctional political class in charge? They can get that with the Greeks and Italians. And they get enough Euoscepticism from the Hungarians. No Deal suits them fine. Sure - it will hurt but they will cope with it far better than we will. And it gives them the opportunity to take as much of our industry and services as they can persuade to relocate to somewhere more politically stable, with tariff free access to a vastly bigger market and without the prospect of Corbyn and his loony policies coming down the track.
    That's your view. Others seem to think they really want us to stay. If they wanted us gone for sure a little more flexibility would have been helpful, rather than encouraging our remainers.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft finds significant support both for a new socially conservative pro Brexit Party similar to Farage's proposed Brexit party and a pro EU centrist party similar to TIG

    'New Party A would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit.'

    'New Party B, meanwhile, would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state'


    He finds Party A would get 24%, Party B 27%, the Tories 18%, Labour 14% and the LDs 5%, the Greens 4% and UKIP 3%



    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/lord-ashcroft-the-space-for-a-new-party-isnt-just-in-the-centre-of-politics.html

    In a scenario like that, I should think the way support was distributed would be more important than the headline figures. The Lib Dems/Alliance always suffered from a rather uniform distribution of support in contrast with Tory and Labour support having areas of concentration. Maybe the same would be true of TIG or Chuk, or whatever it's going to be called.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boles Abstentions - Grieve, Gyimah, Greening !!

    Why didn't they support Boles?
    Grieve is as much a hardliner as any of the ERG. Bit surprised about Greening/Gyimah though.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    My predictions this afternoon were amazingly close

    They were.
    Respect to you or the cider?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580
    edited April 2019
    Yup. All in it up to their necks. As was said some time ago, they're all just focused on avoiding blame. In fairness to jonathan he is right that Corbyn has moved a bit more than most.

    Night all - do it all again on Wednesday?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2019

    Interesting fact on BBC News - apparently the Tories don't have enough £ to fight a GE. Have those donations to the 'party of business' dried up? Who'd a thunk it?

    I call total horseshit on that. The last official figures had Tories still getting more cash than the other parties, it is supposedly the next set where it will show a drop off.

    However, if a GE is called, people will stump up the cash (just like the unions will for Labour).

    I think what would be far worse for the Tories is I don't think they are organized. When they did well in 2010 / 2015, they sent a lot of time organizing, polling, focus groups etc. They had tested their messages and a good idea who to target.

    2017 showed the opposite, not a f##king clue.
  • Because this whole process is, of course, making staying in the Union/Better Together/Strong and Stable look like a blinding decision.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Though there will be some Conservatives who would be quite happy to get rid of all those non-Conservative Scottish MPs.

    :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,580

    Because this whole process is, of course, making staying in the Union/Better Together/Strong and Stable look like a blinding decision.
    Yes and no. It is making the union look like crap and probably increasing support for indy, but it is demonstrating leaving anything is bloody torturous.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Scott_P said:
    🤔 I think he’s saying like they said in galaxy quest, the timer always stops on 1
This discussion has been closed.