politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both TMay and Corbyn drop to record lows in YouGov’s favourabi

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

Benpointer said:

Any prediction for this one?

What are they voting on now?

F. Other plan to block no deal
More technically prescriptive than amendment C, this says that if the UK is seven calendar days from leaving without a deal, the house should be recalled to consider a motion on whether or not MPs approve such a move.

Thanks.

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

Benpointer said:

Any prediction for this one?

What are they voting on now?

F. Other plan to block no deal
More technically prescriptive than amendment C, this says that if the UK is seven calendar days from leaving without a deal, the house should be recalled to consider a motion on whether or not MPs approve such a move.

Another irrelevant vote unless May is physically removed from office

TGOHF said:

Taxes are going to have to rise to pay the extra EU membership fees - may as well let Jezza raise em.

There really is no point in this government - let it fall.

Will there be extra membership fees? I thought Mrs May's super-duper negotiating skills had ensured we'd be paying the full whack for the next two years, even if we were out of the EU, anyway.

"Hello General Election, what have you got in store for us?"

"You'll just have to wait and see!"

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

The day the Brexit died.

That was quite a few days ago.

I think it's been in an induced coma for a few days but today was the day that its loved ones got to say goodbye, before they turned off life support and donated its organs. Who knows, perhaps its heart will beat on inside some other ill thought out act of national humiliation.

Pulpstar said:

What is Caravanning Ma Becket''s amendment all about ?

Guaranteeing a vote on whether to extend A50 a week before any No Deal "cliff-edge".

TGOHF said:

Taxes are going to have to rise to pay the extra EU membership fees - may as well let Jezza raise em.

There really is no point in this government - let it fall.

There isn't much point to the government, but I don't understand the anger at it for being overridden by parliament. That's something that genuinely is not its fault, because if MPs wanted to avoid those extra EU fees they had a very simple option to do so.

Pulpstar said:

What is Caravanning Ma Becket''s amendment all about ?

She is very very sorry about nominating Jezza and wants forgiveness?

El_Capitano said:

Floater said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6847147/Labour-splits-Brexit-exposed-Peoples-Vote-march.html

Well at least shameless in honest

Shami Chakrabarti insisted a second referendum had 'never been our preference'.

I remember when Shami Chakrabarti was widely respected. It seems like a long time ago.

Only by people who didn’t know what she was really like. She had trashed what was left of her reputation long before joining Labour. Remember the LSE and Ghadaffi or her failure to stand up for Wilders when he was unlawfully kept out of the country. She had about as much understanding of human rights as my cat.

Beckett amendment only just loses

Ayes 311 Noes 314 so closer than Letwin

HYUFD said:

dots said:

HYUFD said:

dots said:

HYUFD said:

dots said:

So TAKING BACK CONTROL is an attempt that could yet still fail, to control order paper for indicative votes that if one did squeak over line is hardly going to be ringing endorsement of way forward to take back to Europe, and in any case will simply be ignored by government if it wasn’t in the manifesto that won them government.

Never has nothing breached trade description act so outrageously than naming this thing taking back control. It’s not worth the order paper it’s written on, might as well just write indicative votes on loo paper and just flush them away.

Where’s HY? You were wrong HY!!! Admit it.

Repeat after me, there’s just the two options, vote for the WA or clean brexit.

Nothing else is in play!

Nope, the EU made clear all they need for further extension is an indication of what the Commons might support and participation in the EU Parliament elections.

May also made clear today given the Commons will not support No Deal the only alternative is further extension and participation in the EU Parliament elections until it passes her Deal.


The last election also produced a hung parliament not a Tory majority

It produced a Tory government! They won.

Stop going by what May says. On No Deal May is looking all ways at once. What a laughable position. What a laughable caricature she has become. What she rules out before lunch she rules back in before tea!

Truth is, when it comes to the crunch, there’s more clean brexiteers in cabinet, government, party than those that would stop them. That’s what the failed coup proved.

You are being proved wrong HY, Parliament cannot take control, and no one From this government will be allowed by their colleagues to fly to Europe and beg for that long extension.

Parliament just has taken control, BINO here we come

That is not control! It’s just an order paper destined for a bin.
Control is power. The power is in the hands of people who if you don’t pass the WA will take us out with clean brexit. They won’t go to Europe with an indicative vote in their hands begging for long delay and soft brexit renegotiation.
This vote tonight is a hideous moment in terms of getting the WA passed. We are slipping out of EU in a fit of blinkered madness.

Nope, it will be indefinite extension and we will probably never leave, provided there are Commons indicative votes showing what the Commons might agree and we participate in the EU elections the EU and Tusk made clear there can be a lengthy extension

I'm not convinced the EU will let this drag indefinitely.

Nor, I expect, will Conservative Party members.

And some people thought the Tiggers meant Labour were in more trouble than the Tories. Looks silly now.

Pulpstar said:

What is Caravanning Ma Becket''s amendment all about ?

To guarantee a vote on extension or Leave with No Deal but May effectively said the only alternative to her Deal is extension today anyway

Beckett lost by just three

I am lost. What is the main motion? Could this fall, in which case all the amendments are gone?

Damian Green rebels against his bestie Theresa May / Carlotta Vance.

When you look at the list of Conservative rebels you see that their position is more nuanced than either side is portraying it as. Many of them are MPs who backed the deal twice. They’re looking for a way forward.

Andrew Mitchell is now a rebel.

Who would have thunk it?

kjohnw said:

"They are focusing on having internal arguments about Brexit rather than getting anything done about it, and will get everything they deserve."

let me see how you feel about that when Corbyn unleashes full blown marxism on the UK and we become like Venezuela. It will make no deal look like heaven

There's nothing I can do about that. I live in a safe seat so my vote will make no difference, and I can vote against the Tories with an absolutely clean conscience about what some other government would do. And the idea Corbyn will be able to try full on marxism is clearly absurd, he does not have the control on his MPs to permit that. He'll probably be an awful PM, but the Tories are not interested in governing the country, they want to have their ideological arguments about various Brexit options. If they don't want to govern, and their actions show they don't care about that, we should and will give them what they want.

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Brtiain wants to be inspired.
I'm convinced the economy would be energised with No deal.

Can you describe how you think No Deal would energise the economy?

A permanent session of the Operation Yellowhammer team deep in the Pindar bunker crisis managing the predicted but undefined cascade crises would absolutely energise the economy. Supermarkets would have record days trading followed by looting as an example...

New unicorn factories springing up everywhere?

AlastairMeeks said:

When you look at the list of Conservative rebels you see that their position is more nuanced than either side is portraying it as. Many of them are MPs who backed the deal twice. They’re looking for a way forward.

i.e. given up on May and her one tramline brain.

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nicky Morgan’s bizarre Brexit journey continues, then.

I think she just wants to try and find a consensus, as does say Masterton (And Indeed Letwin and Soames) who also voted for Letwin. Do not confuse all the votes there for 2nd ref/revoke or even Corbyn's customs unicorn.

Morgan has acted rather more responsibly than many in recent months.

As the clock winds down and the votes carry on, perhaps my colleagues had it right earlier, and we need to implement a 2 sheets max for a week protocol for office toilet roll usage

according to bbc Alistair Burt voted against the govt so may also have resigned?

williamglenn said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Brtiain wants to be inspired.
I'm convinced the economy would be energised with No deal.

Can you describe how you think No Deal would energise the economy?

Water purification tablets are the new new thing.

kjohnw said:

williamglenn said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Brtiain wants to be inspired.
I'm convinced the economy would be energised with No deal.

Can you describe how you think No Deal would energise the economy?

we could reduce our corporation tax rates to the lowest in Europe to make us attractive to foreign investment and subsidise our manufacturing industry to compete with Germany for starters

Subsidising manufacturing?

You sir are a socialist and Margaret Thatcher would kick your arse for such economic heresy.

TGOHF said:

Danny565 said:

TGOHF said:

Taxes are going to have to rise to pay the extra EU membership fees - may as well let Jezza raise em.

There really is no point in this government - let it fall.

Will there be extra membership fees? I thought Mrs May's super-duper negotiating skills had ensured we'd be paying the full whack for the next two years, even if we were out of the EU, anyway.

When we revoke - we lose all rebates. Thanks Remainers...

So we have to hold the EU elections, pay more to the EU and start the whole Brexit mullarkey all over again? Hmm. That will not go down well.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1110310374572732416

HYUFD said:

Letwin amendment passes Newsnight saying could be huge.

The Commons will vote on Brexit first preferences on Wednesday then on Monday if no majority preferential voting to find a winner, then next Wednesday Letwin will introduce a Bill to force the Government to implement the Commons vote

What time is May's resignation? I wouldn't want to miss it.

TGOHF said:

Danny565 said:

TGOHF said:

Taxes are going to have to rise to pay the extra EU membership fees - may as well let Jezza raise em.

There really is no point in this government - let it fall.

Will there be extra membership fees? I thought Mrs May's super-duper negotiating skills had ensured we'd be paying the full whack for the next two years, even if we were out of the EU, anyway.

When we revoke - we lose all rebates. Thanks Remainers...

No we don't.

kjohnw said:

williamglenn said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Brtiain wants to be inspired.
I'm convinced the economy would be energised with No deal.

Can you describe how you think No Deal would energise the economy?

we could reduce our corporation tax rates to the lowest in Europe to make us attractive to foreign investment and subsidise our manufacturing industry to compete with Germany for starters

How would that overcome the practical effects of customs checks and tariffs?

Any subsidies would be subject to counter-measures via the WTO. For example:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-wto/wto-orders-brazil-to-remove-subsidies-government-to-appeal-idUSKCN1B92QV

The World Trade Organization on Wednesday gave Brazil 90 days to withdraw several industrial stimulus programs, supporting complaints of unfair competition by Japan and the European Union

Take Back Control they said.

They never said what of.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1110309769359884294?s=21

RochdalePioneers said:

The Commons can vote to mandate the moon on a stick for all the good it will do them. May remains Prime Minister and if she refuses to yield to the will of the house it only leaves two options.

One, the house tries to remove her government with a no confidence vote,. The ERG would hug her close and she would win. Or, if a squeaked loss, she remains PM until or unless an alternative PM could try for a confidence vote. Which puts us beyond the decision date for Brexit.
Two, the Tory party tries to remove her. She likely clings on ignoring the deputation which comes to her outside a of party rules. Or if a squeaked loss makes her resign, she remains PM until a Tory leadership campaign is concluded. Which also puts us beyond the decision date for Brexit.

She can go on and on. Regardless of what her party or the Commons think UNLESS a majority of MPs suddenly coalesce around a unity emergency government OR the Tories do so around a unity emergency leader.

The only leader that can replace May from this cabinet is one that chooses Clean Brexit over long delay. She’s there so long as she does that bidding.

That’s where the power and control lies. In the executive. When a putsch comes to shove that’s where the cabinet, government and party is. That’s where both the people and parliament voted. That’s where the law that needs to be overturned is. The only way to stop Clean Brexit is pass the WA.

Anything else is inability read this political situation.

GIN1138 said:

OK MPs this is your moment. You think you can control Brexit better than the government fine. Lets see what you've got.

They hadn't better have done all this just to finish up not being able to agree anything on Wednesday...

Letwin will do it by preferences next Monday if no majority on Wednesday Newsnight said, maybe AV, STV? If so BINO likely winner

Harris_Tweed said:

“Hello.. is that the company that makes WTFometers? It’s the UK Parliament here. We’ve had one for the last 40 years - just in time for Sunny Jim wheeling dying MPs through the lobby. We had to get it recalibarated during the Maastricht Unpleasantness in the 90s, of course. But, well, the thing is, we have a government now which has seen the central plank of its policy die on its arse, twice, by three-figure majorities, then loses three ministers in a double-figure defeat over holding a Bring Your Policies To Work day - and still it’s in office. To cut a long story short, our WTFometer is now a pile of twisted metal and burning plastic, and we were wondering how much it would cost to upgrade?”

+lots

TheScreamingEagles said:

kjohnw said:

williamglenn said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Brtiain wants to be inspired.
I'm convinced the economy would be energised with No deal.

Can you describe how you think No Deal would energise the economy?

we could reduce our corporation tax rates to the lowest in Europe to make us attractive to foreign investment and subsidise our manufacturing industry to compete with Germany for starters

Subsidising manufacturing?

You sir are a socialist and Margaret Thatcher would kick your arse for such economic heresy.

Likely to fall foul of the WTO too, but who needs them...

MPs now voting on whether to play Stonhenge at the next gig

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1110303965823029258

Yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3PKE8uTSp8

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1110310374572732416

Suspending the normal procedures for these matters should not be done lightly, but ultimately the government is completely paralyzed so a fair case can be made that these are very exceptional circumstances. Yes, it may well be MPs still want to chase unicorns all day long, and more likely they will take whatever option is easiest to secure a very long extension that can then be parlayed into remaining, but the government still has not got the DUP or ERG or Lab rebel votes to see its own deal pass. So what does it matter that they are not controlling business, they weren't going to win the day with their option anyway.

NickPalmer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

I am lost. What is the main motion? Could this fall, in which case all the amendments are gone?

Sure! They voted for an amendment to the government motion. Doesn't mean they will vote for the amended government motion...

Yes. I think the figures will be much the same, though.

People who voted for Letwin and not Beckett presumably say that they want constructive alternatives to May's deal, but are not focused on stopping Brexit, even hard Brexit.

They might have thought it just too prescriptive, or perhaps unworkable?

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

Danny565 said:

TGOHF said:

Taxes are going to have to rise to pay the extra EU membership fees - may as well let Jezza raise em.

There really is no point in this government - let it fall.

Will there be extra membership fees? I thought Mrs May's super-duper negotiating skills had ensured we'd be paying the full whack for the next two years, even if we were out of the EU, anyway.

When we revoke - we lose all rebates. Thanks Remainers...

No we don't.

Don't start confusing TGOHF with the truth!

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1110310898835562497

They are that stupid, yes. Of all the possible options it is the worst, and yet for some reasons MPs seem very keen on it. They are living some fantasy where deep Brexit divisions and lack of wish to clarify positions will be resolved through a GE.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kjohnw said:

williamglenn said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Brtiain wants to be inspired.
I'm convinced the economy would be energised with No deal.

Can you describe how you think No Deal would energise the economy?

we could reduce our corporation tax rates to the lowest in Europe to make us attractive to foreign investment and subsidise our manufacturing industry to compete with Germany for starters

Subsidising manufacturing?

You sir are a socialist and Margaret Thatcher would kick your arse for such economic heresy.

Thatcher subsidised manufacturing (and mining).

And governments have continued to do so till the present day - although now most of the manufacturing they are subsidising is in other countries.

NickPalmer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

I am lost. What is the main motion? Could this fall, in which case all the amendments are gone?

Sure! They voted for an amendment to the government motion. Doesn't mean they will vote for the amended government motion...

Yes. I think the figures will be much the same, though.

People who voted for Letwin and not Beckett presumably say that they want constructive alternatives to May's deal, but are not focused on stopping Brexit, even hard Brexit.

My MP (Mann) seems to have voted against Letwin but abstained on Beckett. What's he saying there ?

RochdalePioneers said:

As the clock winds down and the votes carry on, perhaps my colleagues had it right earlier, and we need to implement a 2 sheets max for a week protocol for office toilet roll usage

One up and one down ?

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

solarflare said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Are we having fun yet?

What alternatives to popcorn are there

I've moved into BBQ baked corn. Its very moreish.

Interesting, sounds worth a try.

I have a massive stockpile of bog roll, what am I going to do with it now that I won't need it?