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I would almost think she would not bother with MV3 it is so dead, but the EU's statement is seemingly designed in part to make sure she has to bring it next week at leastAramintaMoonbeamQC said:She's still shipping MV3, but knows that we're going to end up with something else.
She'd got her eye on getting through to May, and eclipsing Brown. She's almost there, if she can get to a situation where she steps down as Tory leader but not PM during the period of the internal contest. What's that, there's a Brexit crisis to resolve? Never mind all that.Theuniondivvie said:
2 more weeks of can kicking, the ONLY thing that could put a mile on Tessy's puss.Drutt said:TMAy sounding remarkably chipper at EUCO presser.
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Not really. It would be better if people took it seriously; sending a load of dodgy UKIPpers as our contingent did the country no favours. Half of them resigned, defected or got caught for one thing or another since their election.SeanT said:
One of the reasons, of course, why we MUST leave. Glad you admit it.IanB2 said:
Sad to say, no-one really cares about the EU elections. So it doesn't really matter,No_Offence_Alan said:
But any extension involves taking part in the EU election, and that election will be fought on Brexit alone, not austerity, or dementia tax etc. How many of those 450 will have confidence in their respective parties' manifestos?kle4 said:
I'm a sucker for punishment.Sean_F said:
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?kle4 said:
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.SeanT said:
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.SouthamObserver said:
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?SeanT said:
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.FrancisUrquhart said:
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.SeanT said:It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.0 -
Well, maybe, but the No Deal petition topped out at 300 and something thousand. Where were the bots then? Perhaps it is a signifier of a real difference? Even if that difference is that Remainers are more likely to use Twitter.Andrew said:
Makes sense. The last one ended up with 40,000 signatures from the Vatican (population 600ish), so they had to do something. The basic problem remains though: there's no ID checking.edmundintokyo said:Apparently the numbers sometimes drop back down, so they're probably letting stuff come in in real time the hosing out the dodgy-looking ones when they get around to it.
Sorry for going on about this, it's one of my personal bugbears. Same as twitter and facebook getting manipulated, or the Daily Mail comments site, and yet after years of this shit this sort of thing still gets reported as meaningful.0 -
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
Farage did say on Peston yesterday No Deal Brexit is the only true Brexit available, so anything short of that and he will be guaranteed to cry 'betrayal' and launch his new Brexit PartyStark_Dawning said:Surely Farage has to pounce soon, declaring Theresa an EU stooge or collaborator who's postponed, possibly for ever, Britain's date with freedom.
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OT: Pete B has released a range of merchandise for the fanboy/girls amongst us:
https://store.peteforamerica.com/
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I think the difference in the view I have of this is that she has not won more time or flexibility from them, particularly since that flexibility in itself destroys the last hopes of her deal, but that the EU simply backed away from forcing no deal, in that much you are right, but chose dates which require parliament to take the impetus away from May.SeanT said:
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?SouthamObserver said:
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?SeanT said:
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.IanB2 said:
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.SeanT said:
She’s Ireland.kle4 said:
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?SeanT said:
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.FrancisUrquhart said:
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.SeanT said:It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.0 -
Ind gain in Newcastle. He was the former UKIP councillor for the ward.0
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I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
That's the location you put in when signing.edmundintokyo said:
Geolocation isn't that reliable so the Vatican number may just be neighbouring bits of Rome, not to mention VPNs, IP blocks getting rented out etc.
You can see it in the JSON - only 5 have signed from the Vatican this time!
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584.json
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At first I thought you meant Pete Burns.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:OT: Pete B has released a range of merchandise for the fanboy/girls amongst us:
https://store.peteforamerica.com/0 -
You should be more specific, I was worried you meant Peter Bone.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:OT: Pete B has released a range of merchandise for the fanboy/girls amongst us:
https://store.peteforamerica.com/0 -
I think it was Carole Codswallop actually saying that was a "done deal" and "it's over" because they were going to do it.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.kle4 said:
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.Peter_the_Punter said:
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.rcs1000 said:And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.0 -
'Bone for America?' Bold policy for population growth.kle4 said:
You should be more specific, I was worried you meant Peter Bone.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:OT: Pete B has released a range of merchandise for the fanboy/girls amongst us:
https://store.peteforamerica.com/0 -
because he is trolling youSean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
Labour hold in Southend.0
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Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
I'm struggling to see who's demoralised.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
Con gain in Thurrock.0
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Sophy rules OK0
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That’s fair. They have given the UK a couple of extra weeks to come up with a way to avoid a No Deal Brexit. But 12th April is set in stone because of the EP election timetable.kle4 said:
I think the difference in the view I have of this is that she has not won more time or flexibility from them, particularly since that flexibility in itself destroys the last hopes of her deal, but that the EU simply backed away from forcing no deal, in that much you are right, but chose dates which require parliament to take the impetus away from May.SeanT said:
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?SouthamObserver said:
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?SeanT said:
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.IanB2 said:
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.SeanT said:
She’s Ireland.kle4 said:
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?SeanT said:
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.FrancisUrquhart said:
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.SeanT said:It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
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Philip_Thompson said:
I'm struggling to see who's demoralised.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
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Was idly looking at info on political make up of councillors in England. Is it really the case there are only 11 Green councillors across London? That seems absurdly low
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_make-up_of_local_councils_in_the_United_Kingdom
Fun to see the Tories have 1 councillor in Northern Ireland.
Love it.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
'Bone for America?' Bold policy for population growth.kle4 said:
You should be more specific, I was worried you meant Peter Bone.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:OT: Pete B has released a range of merchandise for the fanboy/girls amongst us:
https://store.peteforamerica.com/0 -
Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.0 -
National humiliation bounceslade said:Con gain in Thurrock.
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Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.williamglenn said:
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.kle4 said:
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
Well, technically, but if we come up with anything in 3 weeks it'll be an extension for even longer than that, so there's no pressure.Barnesian said:
Look at the wording. We HAVE to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22.SeanT said:
Look at theSouthamObserver said:
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?SeanT said:
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.FrancisUrquhart said:
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.SeanT said:It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.0 -
The new councillor used to be half of the pop group Dollar.dyedwoolie said:
National humiliation bounceslade said:Con gain in Thurrock.
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And this is Sky News, who are normally first to criticise May / Brexit and find the most negative spin on it.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.0 -
They saw "madness in her eyes", and decided to give parliament space to stage an intervention.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.0 -
David Vsn Day?slade said:
The new councillor used to be half of the pop group Dollar.dyedwoolie said:
National humiliation bounceslade said:Con gain in Thurrock.
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Yes - David Van Daydyedwoolie said:
David Vsn Day?slade said:
The new councillor used to be half of the pop group Dollar.dyedwoolie said:
National humiliation bounceslade said:Con gain in Thurrock.
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The other one triggered quite a serious debate in Westminster Hall.kle4 said:
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.williamglenn said:
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.kle4 said:
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.0 -
I’m not demoralized. I had a major wobble last week - my first in minutes - but now I can see the whites of their eyes, in Brussels. They are just as scared. Perhaps more so. A chaotic painful brexit is not the win win they had hoped. It will fiercely alienate a very large European country with lots of soft power. It will damage the EU as a whole, morally, economically, politically. It will be manna from heaven for eurosceptics in Italy and elsewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm struggling to see who's demoralised.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
Plus Ireland.0 -
I don't see that demoralisation at all. A second referendum would fire them up.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
0 -
They're so scared, they're willing to facilitate our exit from Brexit.SeanT said:
I’m not demoralized. I had a major wobble last week - my first in minutes - but now I can see the whites of their eyes, in Brussels. They are just as scared. Perhaps more so. A chaotic painful brexit is not the win win they had hoped. It will fiercely alienate a very large European country with lots of soft power. It will damage the EU as a whole, morally, economically, politically. It will be manna from heaven for eurosceptics in Italy and elsewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm struggling to see who's demoralised.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
Plus Ireland.
0 -
Because the EU can do no wrong and everyone will bow down before its undeniable magnificence.... or some other such rubbish.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
Fair point.williamglenn said:
The other one triggered quite a serious debate in Westminster Hall.kle4 said:
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.williamglenn said:
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.kle4 said:
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.0 -
Has just launched his political career it seems, he even has Trump's hairdyedwoolie said:
David Vsn Day?slade said:
The new councillor used to be half of the pop group Dollar.dyedwoolie said:
National humiliation bounceslade said:Con gain in Thurrock.
0 -
Dominic Cummings' biggest fear for EURef1 was that the Leave campaign would be led by that kind of rage, but EURef2 cannot be anything but that.Sean_F said:
I don't see that demoralisation at all. A second referendum would fire them up.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.0 -
And yet I bet many a newspaper here and around the world will talk of nothing but what a humiliation it was. Who to believe?SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.0 -
Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.0 -
12th April is a hard deadline. There’s no going beyond that without May’s Deal being approved or Parliament dictating a change of course.FrancisUrquhart said:
And this is Sky News, who are normally first to criticise May / Brexit and find the most negative spin on it.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.
0 -
They met murder on the waywilliamglenn said:
They saw "madness in her eyes", and decided to give parliament space to stage an intervention.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
She wore the mask of Castlereagh0 -
Give Me Back My Art(icle 50)HYUFD said:
Has just launched his political career it seems, he even has Trump's hairdyedwoolie said:
David Vsn Day?slade said:
The new councillor used to be half of the pop group Dollar.dyedwoolie said:
National humiliation bounceslade said:Con gain in Thurrock.
0 -
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.FrancisUrquhart said:Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.0 -
There is as always with the EU, wiggle room.SouthamObserver said:
12th April is a hard deadline. There’s no going beyond that without May’s Deal being approved or Parliament dictating a change of course.FrancisUrquhart said:
And this is Sky News, who are normally first to criticise May / Brexit and find the most negative spin on it.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.
"to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council."
That could literally mean anything.0 -
Well we are talking about the snowflake generation ;-)kle4 said:
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.FrancisUrquhart said:Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.0 -
It's only actionable if vast numbers of MP's are willing to break away from their parties, and be reviled for so doing.williamglenn said:
The other one triggered quite a serious debate in Westminster Hall.kle4 said:
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.williamglenn said:
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.kle4 said:
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.0 -
The EU did say if the UK committed to take part in European elections it could extend beyond 12th April, then of course extension would become indefinite.SouthamObserver said:
12th April is a hard deadline. There’s no going beyond that without May’s Deal being approved or Parliament dictating a change of course.FrancisUrquhart said:
And this is Sky News, who are normally first to criticise May / Brexit and find the most negative spin on it.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.
0 -
The Lib Dems have held Arcadia. Great ground operation as usual.0
-
Not if you read point 4.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is as always with the EU, wiggle room.SouthamObserver said:
12th April is a hard deadline. There’s no going beyond that without May’s Deal being approved or Parliament dictating a change of course.FrancisUrquhart said:
And this is Sky News, who are normally first to criticise May / Brexit and find the most negative spin on it.SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.
"to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council."
That could literally mean anything.
0 -
1) I didn't say tanks.Sean_F said:
The cavalry charge against tanks was a German myth.viewcode said:
Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union simultaneously, and tried to face down armoured vehicles with cavalry charges. England sent hundreds of thousands of men to France, lost all its equipment and many men, went home and (apart from Dieppe) didn't face the Germans again on French soil for four years. You had a point?Ave_it said:Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
There was nothing archaic about cavalry in Eastern Europe. The Germans and Russians had thousands of horsemen.
2) During phase 1 of WWII, the Germans still used horses as their primary method of moving supplies. But horses for transport are not the same as cavalry horses.0 -
Both.kle4 said:
And yet I bet many a newspaper here and around the world will talk of nothing but what a humiliation it was. Who to believe?SeanT said:Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.0 -
Can I be honest? I really don't remember what was so bad about Brown. I was not a fan of Blair's smarmy nature, so on a personal level I had no issue with Brown, and cannot really recall much else of his premiership to be honest, outside a few major events. Sure I remember him being crappy, as most political leaders are, but as amazingly bad as people say? It might be justified, but it really did not stick with me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well we are talking about the snowflake generation ;-)kle4 said:
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.FrancisUrquhart said:Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.0 -
Actually, the bad presentation was only half the issue.kle4 said:
Can I be honest? I really don't remember what was so bad about Brown. I was not a fan of Blair's smarmy nature, so on a personal level I had no issue with Brown, and cannot really recall much else of his premiership to be honest, outside a few major events. Sure I remember him being crappy, as most political leaders are, but as amazingly bad as people say? It might be justified, but it really did not stick with me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well we are talking about the snowflake generation ;-)kle4 said:
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.FrancisUrquhart said:Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.
The civil servants have made it clear he just couldn't make a decision at the rate required, couldn't keep up with his red box. There is a famous photo of all the backlog of stuff he hadn't got through when he went. He kept bouncing stuff back saying he needed more info and he was very poor at delegating lesser tasks.
He could handle the treasury where it was all about 2 set pieces a year, which he would plan for throughout the year.
PM requires you to make decisions 24/7, not order yet another load of research about it. As well as being the face of the country, able to charm other leaders / VIPs.0 -
May should [but probably won't] say that time is still up. We have to make a decision now in Parliament and that still for her it comes down now to deal or no deal. She will put forward a MV3 and if it passes we exit smoothly on May 22nd. If it doesn't she will implement Operation Yellowhammer and spend 2 weeks finalising preparations for a no deal Brexit.
Parliament will then have 3 choices and forced to make one. Ratify deal to take no deal off the table, tacitly accept no deal, or be forced to replace May and come up with an alternative.0 -
Trump doing his bit for world peace...
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-476578430 -
All we've really done, i think, is pushed the final week of no-deal panic forward. There's still no sign of any real intent to get rid of May, and I also see no sign of her changing course. And MV3 still looks like a fantasm and pointless mirage. She *loves* delay for the sake of delay, even with her beloved and sacrocanct brexit date.Philip_Thompson said:May should [but probably won't] say that time is still up. We have to make a decision now in Parliament and that still for her it comes down now to deal or no deal. She will put forward a MV3 and if it passes we exit smoothly on May 22nd. If it doesn't she will implement Operation Yellowhammer and spend 2 weeks finalising preparations for a no deal Brexit.
Parliament will then have 3 choices and forced to make one. Ratify deal to take no deal off the table, tacitly accept no deal, or be forced to replace May and come up with an alternative.0 -
May: I need to kick the can
EU: You need to kick the bucket0 -
That's not funny william.0
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I seem to recall from one of the essay answers that made up my Higher history that in 1940 two thirds of the Wermacht's transport needs were fulfilled by horses.viewcode said:
1) I didn't say tanks.Sean_F said:
The cavalry charge against tanks was a German myth.viewcode said:
Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union simultaneously, and tried to face down armoured vehicles with cavalry charges. England sent hundreds of thousands of men to France, lost all its equipment and many men, went home and (apart from Dieppe) didn't face the Germans again on French soil for four years. You had a point?Ave_it said:Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
There was nothing archaic about cavalry in Eastern Europe. The Germans and Russians had thousands of horsemen.
2) During phase 1 of WWII, the Germans still used horses as their primary method of moving supplies. But horses for transport are not the same as cavalry horses.
In Russia/SU mounted troops were primarily of practical use in that geographical setting & scale rather than of any major strategic value.0 -
Politically, not literally.Philip_Thompson said:That's not funny william.
0 -
Travelled past the Golan Heights last month, they are now effectively part of Israel anywayFrancisUrquhart said:Trump doing his bit for world peace...
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-476578430 -
Yet we're STILL waiting for the recession we were told would immediately follow a Leave vote and today's retail sales data shows that the panic buying of bog roll claims were full of shite.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit. 0 -
The thing with May you never know which way she’ll swing !
Whether her deranged no deal act was to be taken at face value who knows but clearly the EU realized they had to step in and find a way out of the asylum .
If she resigns after the MV3 loss but remains in charge whilst a new leader is found would she want to push through a no deal . Or would she say a new leader needs to reset the negotiations . Could David Lidington take over temporarily if she wanted nothing more to do with Brexit .
0 -
So after all the drama of the past few days The Good Ship May Sails On Serenely?
0 -
All that will happen now is parliament will take control and water down brexit to remain in all but name . Freedom of movement continues ,big payments to Eu continue . ECJ rules over us continue. No independent trade deals. This is not the brexit people voted for and the anger will become palpable when they see the stitch up by the establishment that has thwarted their vote , British democracy RIP0
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Your penultimate paragraph is spot on. It's a shame more people don't appreciate this. And it explains your final paragraph.rcs1000 said:
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.Peter_the_Punter said:
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.rcs1000 said:And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.0 -
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?0
-
It’s ok because the military nuclear bunker has been activated, so businesses know they will have jingoistic headlines to protect them.Richard_Nabavi said:So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertantty. Have I got this right?
0 -
+1Norm said:
Your penultimate paragraph is spot on. It's a shame more people don't appreciate this. And it explains your final paragraph.rcs1000 said:
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.Peter_the_Punter said:
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.rcs1000 said:And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.
I wonder if any local councils carry on like the Westminster postures and whether they would be placed in 'special measures' if they did so.0 -
I thought 29th March crash out is avoided now, but 12th or later is not. And 22 may would only apply in the case of a non crash out?Richard_Nabavi said:So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertantty. Have I got this right?
It's too late to keep it straight.0 -
Is your support for Brexit officially a thing of the past?rcs1000 said:
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.Peter_the_Punter said:
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.rcs1000 said:And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.0 -
In austerity news retail sales volume in February 2019 was 24% higher than in February 2011.another_richard said:
Yet we're STILL waiting for the recession we were told would immediately follow a Leave vote and today's retail sales data shows that the panic buying of bog roll claims were full of shite.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j467/drsi
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There's no 22nd May crash out. There's an April 12th crash-out, or a May 22nd brexit transition.Richard_Nabavi said:So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
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No, businesses need to move their plans to handle a 29th March crash out back two weeks and they need to do so with only one week's notice.Richard_Nabavi said:So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
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Yup.Richard_Nabavi said:So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
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Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.0
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Thank goodness we are still being run by the EU, then.another_richard said:
In austerity news retail sales volume in February 2019 was 24% higher than in February 2011.another_richard said:
Yet we're STILL waiting for the recession we were told would immediately follow a Leave vote and today's retail sales data shows that the panic buying of bog roll claims were full of shite.williamglenn said:
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.Sean_F said:
Why do you think that?williamglenn said:
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.williamglenn said:
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.Richard_Tyndall said:
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.Pro_Rata said:
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.williamglenn said:Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j467/drsi0 -
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.SeanT said:
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?SouthamObserver said:
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?SeanT said:
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.IanB2 said:
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.0 -
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.Norm said:Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.0 -
In the same way that Crimea is now effectively part of Russia anyway?.HYUFD said:
Travelled past the Golan Heights last month, they are now effectively part of Israel anywayFrancisUrquhart said:Trump doing his bit for world peace...
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-476578430 -
I doubt she can do that. Legally the extension has already been requested, approved and agreed under EU international law. 29 March is now history, I don't see how it can be brought back.theProle said:
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.SeanT said:
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?SouthamObserver said:
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?SeanT said:
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.IanB2 said:
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.0 -
I have to say Tusk continues to be an absolute star . What a lovely man , funny but equally you can see he continues to hope against hope that the UK would stay . A true fighter for freedom behind the Iron Curtain and a man who passionately believes in the EU and who cherishes the freedoms and rights that this brings . God bless Tusk .0
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I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or conceivably no Brexit if it goes on long enough.Philip_Thompson said:
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.Norm said:Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.0 -
We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!".theProle said:
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.SeanT said:
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?SouthamObserver said:
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?SeanT said:
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.IanB2 said:
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.0 -
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.Norm said:
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.Norm said:Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.0
This discussion has been closed.