She's still shipping MV3, but knows that we're going to end up with something else.
I would almost think she would not bother with MV3 it is so dead, but the EU's statement is seemingly designed in part to make sure she has to bring it next week at least
2 more weeks of can kicking, the ONLY thing that could put a mile on Tessy's puss.
She'd got her eye on getting through to May, and eclipsing Brown. She's almost there, if she can get to a situation where she steps down as Tory leader but not PM during the period of the internal contest. What's that, there's a Brexit crisis to resolve? Never mind all that.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
I'm a sucker for punishment.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
But any extension involves taking part in the EU election, and that election will be fought on Brexit alone, not austerity, or dementia tax etc. How many of those 450 will have confidence in their respective parties' manifestos?
Sad to say, no-one really cares about the EU elections. So it doesn't really matter,
One of the reasons, of course, why we MUST leave. Glad you admit it.
Not really. It would be better if people took it seriously; sending a load of dodgy UKIPpers as our contingent did the country no favours. Half of them resigned, defected or got caught for one thing or another since their election.
Apparently the numbers sometimes drop back down, so they're probably letting stuff come in in real time the hosing out the dodgy-looking ones when they get around to it.
Makes sense. The last one ended up with 40,000 signatures from the Vatican (population 600ish), so they had to do something. The basic problem remains though: there's no ID checking.
Sorry for going on about this, it's one of my personal bugbears. Same as twitter and facebook getting manipulated, or the Daily Mail comments site, and yet after years of this shit this sort of thing still gets reported as meaningful.
Well, maybe, but the No Deal petition topped out at 300 and something thousand. Where were the bots then? Perhaps it is a signifier of a real difference? Even if that difference is that Remainers are more likely to use Twitter.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
Surely Farage has to pounce soon, declaring Theresa an EU stooge or collaborator who's postponed, possibly for ever, Britain's date with freedom.
Farage did say on Peston yesterday No Deal Brexit is the only true Brexit available, so anything short of that and he will be guaranteed to cry 'betrayal' and launch his new Brexit Party
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
I think the difference in the view I have of this is that she has not won more time or flexibility from them, particularly since that flexibility in itself destroys the last hopes of her deal, but that the EU simply backed away from forcing no deal, in that much you are right, but chose dates which require parliament to take the impetus away from May.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.
And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
I think the difference in the view I have of this is that she has not won more time or flexibility from them, particularly since that flexibility in itself destroys the last hopes of her deal, but that the EU simply backed away from forcing no deal, in that much you are right, but chose dates which require parliament to take the impetus away from May.
That’s fair. They have given the UK a couple of extra weeks to come up with a way to avoid a No Deal Brexit. But 12th April is set in stone because of the EP election timetable.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Look at the wording. We HAVE to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22.
Well, technically, but if we come up with anything in 3 weeks it'll be an extension for even longer than that, so there's no pressure.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.
The other one triggered quite a serious debate in Westminster Hall.
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
I'm struggling to see who's demoralised.
I’m not demoralized. I had a major wobble last week - my first in minutes - but now I can see the whites of their eyes, in Brussels. They are just as scared. Perhaps more so. A chaotic painful brexit is not the win win they had hoped. It will fiercely alienate a very large European country with lots of soft power. It will damage the EU as a whole, morally, economically, politically. It will be manna from heaven for eurosceptics in Italy and elsewhere.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
I don't see that demoralisation at all. A second referendum would fire them up.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
I'm struggling to see who's demoralised.
I’m not demoralized. I had a major wobble last week - my first in minutes - but now I can see the whites of their eyes, in Brussels. They are just as scared. Perhaps more so. A chaotic painful brexit is not the win win they had hoped. It will fiercely alienate a very large European country with lots of soft power. It will damage the EU as a whole, morally, economically, politically. It will be manna from heaven for eurosceptics in Italy and elsewhere.
Plus Ireland.
They're so scared, they're willing to facilitate our exit from Brexit.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the EU can do no wrong and everyone will bow down before its undeniable magnificence.... or some other such rubbish.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.
The other one triggered quite a serious debate in Westminster Hall.
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
I don't see that demoralisation at all. A second referendum would fire them up.
Dominic Cummings' biggest fear for EURef1 was that the Leave campaign would be led by that kind of rage, but EURef2 cannot be anything but that.
Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.
Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.
Well we are talking about the snowflake generation ;-)
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
That's true, but while very impressive numbers very quickly for this revoke one, the fact people seem to be forgetting a previous one on an immediate rerun got more seems pretty notable, presumably because it makes this still impressive petition seem less impressive.
This one is on track to beat that total comfortably.
Maybe it will, but a level of excitement at 1 million was reasonable, but you'd think it was unprecedented from the reaction. That is continues to rapidly grow is further reason for excitement, but a measure of recognition that the other one happened and didn't matter might be reasonable too.
The other one triggered quite a serious debate in Westminster Hall.
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.
It's only actionable if vast numbers of MP's are willing to break away from their parties, and be reviled for so doing.
Sky: “for the first time the EU looked in the prime ministers eyes and realised that No Deal was really possible.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
And this is Sky News, who are normally first to criticise May / Brexit and find the most negative spin on it.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.
12th April is a hard deadline. There’s no going beyond that without May’s Deal being approved or Parliament dictating a change of course.
The EU did say if the UK committed to take part in European elections it could extend beyond 12th April, then of course extension would become indefinite.
Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union simultaneously, and tried to face down armoured vehicles with cavalry charges. England sent hundreds of thousands of men to France, lost all its equipment and many men, went home and (apart from Dieppe) didn't face the Germans again on French soil for four years. You had a point?
The cavalry charge against tanks was a German myth.
There was nothing archaic about cavalry in Eastern Europe. The Germans and Russians had thousands of horsemen.
1) I didn't say tanks. 2) During phase 1 of WWII, the Germans still used horses as their primary method of moving supplies. But horses for transport are not the same as cavalry horses.
Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.
Well we are talking about the snowflake generation ;-)
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.
Can I be honest? I really don't remember what was so bad about Brown. I was not a fan of Blair's smarmy nature, so on a personal level I had no issue with Brown, and cannot really recall much else of his premiership to be honest, outside a few major events. Sure I remember him being crappy, as most political leaders are, but as amazingly bad as people say? It might be justified, but it really did not stick with me.
Mrs May replies that she had expressed her frustration - but understood that MPs were frustrated too.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
Her words in a 2 minute statement should not have made a difference one way or another, nor should her words of contrition. Merits of the deal, and other options, should drive it.
Well we are talking about the snowflake generation ;-)
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.
Can I be honest? I really don't remember what was so bad about Brown. I was not a fan of Blair's smarmy nature, so on a personal level I had no issue with Brown, and cannot really recall much else of his premiership to be honest, outside a few major events. Sure I remember him being crappy, as most political leaders are, but as amazingly bad as people say? It might be justified, but it really did not stick with me.
Actually, the bad presentation was only half the issue.
The civil servants have made it clear he just couldn't make a decision at the rate required, couldn't keep up with his red box. There is a famous photo of all the backlog of stuff he hadn't got through when he went. He kept bouncing stuff back saying he needed more info and he was very poor at delegating lesser tasks.
He could handle the treasury where it was all about 2 set pieces a year, which he would plan for throughout the year.
PM requires you to make decisions 24/7, not order yet another load of research about it. As well as being the face of the country, able to charm other leaders / VIPs.
May should [but probably won't] say that time is still up. We have to make a decision now in Parliament and that still for her it comes down now to deal or no deal. She will put forward a MV3 and if it passes we exit smoothly on May 22nd. If it doesn't she will implement Operation Yellowhammer and spend 2 weeks finalising preparations for a no deal Brexit.
Parliament will then have 3 choices and forced to make one. Ratify deal to take no deal off the table, tacitly accept no deal, or be forced to replace May and come up with an alternative.
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
May should [but probably won't] say that time is still up. We have to make a decision now in Parliament and that still for her it comes down now to deal or no deal. She will put forward a MV3 and if it passes we exit smoothly on May 22nd. If it doesn't she will implement Operation Yellowhammer and spend 2 weeks finalising preparations for a no deal Brexit.
Parliament will then have 3 choices and forced to make one. Ratify deal to take no deal off the table, tacitly accept no deal, or be forced to replace May and come up with an alternative.
All we've really done, i think, is pushed the final week of no-deal panic forward. There's still no sign of any real intent to get rid of May, and I also see no sign of her changing course. And MV3 still looks like a fantasm and pointless mirage. She *loves* delay for the sake of delay, even with her beloved and sacrocanct brexit date.
Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union simultaneously, and tried to face down armoured vehicles with cavalry charges. England sent hundreds of thousands of men to France, lost all its equipment and many men, went home and (apart from Dieppe) didn't face the Germans again on French soil for four years. You had a point?
The cavalry charge against tanks was a German myth.
There was nothing archaic about cavalry in Eastern Europe. The Germans and Russians had thousands of horsemen.
1) I didn't say tanks. 2) During phase 1 of WWII, the Germans still used horses as their primary method of moving supplies. But horses for transport are not the same as cavalry horses.
I seem to recall from one of the essay answers that made up my Higher history that in 1940 two thirds of the Wermacht's transport needs were fulfilled by horses.
In Russia/SU mounted troops were primarily of practical use in that geographical setting & scale rather than of any major strategic value.
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
Yet we're STILL waiting for the recession we were told would immediately follow a Leave vote and today's retail sales data shows that the panic buying of bog roll claims were full of shite.
The thing with May you never know which way she’ll swing !
Whether her deranged no deal act was to be taken at face value who knows but clearly the EU realized they had to step in and find a way out of the asylum .
If she resigns after the MV3 loss but remains in charge whilst a new leader is found would she want to push through a no deal . Or would she say a new leader needs to reset the negotiations . Could David Lidington take over temporarily if she wanted nothing more to do with Brexit .
All that will happen now is parliament will take control and water down brexit to remain in all but name . Freedom of movement continues ,big payments to Eu continue . ECJ rules over us continue. No independent trade deals. This is not the brexit people voted for and the anger will become palpable when they see the stitch up by the establishment that has thwarted their vote , British democracy RIP
And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.
Your penultimate paragraph is spot on. It's a shame more people don't appreciate this. And it explains your final paragraph.
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertantty. Have I got this right?
It’s ok because the military nuclear bunker has been activated, so businesses know they will have jingoistic headlines to protect them.
And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.
Your penultimate paragraph is spot on. It's a shame more people don't appreciate this. And it explains your final paragraph.
+1
I wonder if any local councils carry on like the Westminster postures and whether they would be placed in 'special measures' if they did so.
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertantty. Have I got this right?
I thought 29th March crash out is avoided now, but 12th or later is not. And 22 may would only apply in the case of a non crash out?
And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
No. And, indeed, I think Singapore is a terrible comparison for the UK (pre-Brexit or post-Brexit). Simply, assuming you can turn a regular sized country into a city state is ridiculous.
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.
Is your support for Brexit officially a thing of the past?
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
Yet we're STILL waiting for the recession we were told would immediately follow a Leave vote and today's retail sales data shows that the panic buying of bog roll claims were full of shite.
In austerity news retail sales volume in February 2019 was 24% higher than in February 2011.
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
There's no 22nd May crash out. There's an April 12th crash-out, or a May 22nd brexit transition.
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
No, businesses need to move their plans to handle a 29th March crash out back two weeks and they need to do so with only one week's notice.
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
It is remarkable in the face of all the doom mongering and the atrocious handling by the Government and Parliament that opinion really hasn't changed that much at all. As many others on both sides have said, the best you will ever get from a rerun of the referendum is 48:52 in favour of Remain which means nothing is solved and the strife goes on. Pinning your hopes on the current polling is a fools game.
I don't pin my hopes on current polling. If there's a second referendum, Remain will win by a landslide.
Why do you think that?
Because the pro-Brexit side are demoralised and have lost every argument since the referendum. The only card they have left is fear of the European Superstate, and I don't think even that will be enough.
Yet we're STILL waiting for the recession we were told would immediately follow a Leave vote and today's retail sales data shows that the panic buying of bog roll claims were full of shite.
In austerity news retail sales volume in February 2019 was 24% higher than in February 2011.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.
I doubt she can do that. Legally the extension has already been requested, approved and agreed under EU international law. 29 March is now history, I don't see how it can be brought back.
I have to say Tusk continues to be an absolute star . What a lovely man , funny but equally you can see he continues to hope against hope that the UK would stay . A true fighter for freedom behind the Iron Curtain and a man who passionately believes in the EU and who cherishes the freedoms and rights that this brings . God bless Tusk .
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or conceivably no Brexit if it goes on long enough.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.
We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!".
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.
Comments
https://store.peteforamerica.com/
You can see it in the JSON - only 5 have signed from the Vatican this time!
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584.json
Not only that, but Singapore is the very opposite of Britain in the early 21st Century. It's a country with incredibly high savings rates, and consumer spending is a small proportion of GDP, rather being the dominant part.
And the idea that Singapore success is simply due to low regulation is ludicrous. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.
I supported Brexit because I believed - and still do believe - that the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions. And that has degraded our democracy.
Sadly, British politicians seem to be making a pretty significant balls up of demonstrating that they are capable of taking... well... any decisions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_make-up_of_local_councils_in_the_United_Kingdom
Fun to see the Tories have 1 councillor in Northern Ireland. Love it.
As a result they have made quite major concessions”.
Verbatim.
I was right.
What the long term effects of Kamikaze May is still to be seen.
"How's it been?"
"Steady"
This one is much more politically salient because it's actually actionable and not just a cry of disaffection.
Plus Ireland.
"There are passionately held views on all sides," she says.
"I am very grateful to those MPs who have supported the deal, to those who who have come around to support the deal and to all those MPs I have been meeting across the house."
Not sure that is going to change hearts and minds among the pissed off MPs.
She wore the mask of Castlereagh
"to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council."
That could literally mean anything.
She is clearly pissed off and stressed, but like Gordon Brown totally unsuited for the role of PM.
2) During phase 1 of WWII, the Germans still used horses as their primary method of moving supplies. But horses for transport are not the same as cavalry horses.
The civil servants have made it clear he just couldn't make a decision at the rate required, couldn't keep up with his red box. There is a famous photo of all the backlog of stuff he hadn't got through when he went. He kept bouncing stuff back saying he needed more info and he was very poor at delegating lesser tasks.
He could handle the treasury where it was all about 2 set pieces a year, which he would plan for throughout the year.
PM requires you to make decisions 24/7, not order yet another load of research about it. As well as being the face of the country, able to charm other leaders / VIPs.
Parliament will then have 3 choices and forced to make one. Ratify deal to take no deal off the table, tacitly accept no deal, or be forced to replace May and come up with an alternative.
President Donald Trump has overturned decades of US policy by saying it is time to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47657843
EU: You need to kick the bucket
In Russia/SU mounted troops were primarily of practical use in that geographical setting & scale rather than of any major strategic value.
Whether her deranged no deal act was to be taken at face value who knows but clearly the EU realized they had to step in and find a way out of the asylum .
If she resigns after the MV3 loss but remains in charge whilst a new leader is found would she want to push through a no deal . Or would she say a new leader needs to reset the negotiations . Could David Lidington take over temporarily if she wanted nothing more to do with Brexit .
I wonder if any local councils carry on like the Westminster postures and whether they would be placed in 'special measures' if they did so.
It's too late to keep it straight.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j467/drsi
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1108886922578022400?s=20
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1108889078001532929?s=20