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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though TMay slumped to her worst ever Ipsos-MORI PM ratin

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    There can't be a member leadership election until Brexit is done; even the Tories know that much. The promises candidates would be forced into making to win such an election would be utterly counter-productive to getting Brexit done in the current parliament.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Barnesian said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    There are two equal sized fired up tribes. There isn't "the Brits". There is them and there is us.

    My guess is the Remain vote would go up in Scotland and Northern Ireland. But England is the only place that would count in a rerun. The Leave side - Johnson, Gove, Corbyn etc - are all immensely unpopular. I wonder who’d front Remain.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Ave_it said:

    CON Maj 80 if GE now

    National Interest

    Only if we have a new leader. Corby becomes PM with May leading us!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Chris Grayling supports Leave would be a pretty decent Remain slogan.
  • IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    There can't be a member leadership election until Brexit is done; even the Tories know that much. The promises candidates would be forced into making to win such an election would be utterly counter-productive to getting Brexit done in the current parliament.
    I agree. My point was that the MPs can't keep an ERG member off the membership ballot.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Easy. You don't consult the members. The MPs decide amongst themselves. 2 days max.
    Arguably, not consulting the membership got the Tories where we are now. Another stitch-up in Westminster?
    Remember, this is choosing the PM, not the leader of the opposition.
    What if they aren't acceptable to DUP? GE.
    It is fourteen, count 'em,14 years since a Conservative leader was selected by the membership. What do they pay their subs for?
    As I said it’s 3 months max to fix the immediate crisis. Then there is a vote with members having a say.
    But. If it ain't DUP approved, they don't have any months. And if it is, it means No Deal, and then no crisis would be fixed, as there would be no majority for any fixative with an ERG DUP backed loon running the show.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    We all know it's over for Theresa. Even Theresa knows its over for Theresa. That's why she felt she was able to say what she said last night, IMO.

    The only question now is before the official end of her time in office does she secure Brexit (either through her deal or no deal) or leave it to someone else to deal with?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's completely lost it. He was screaming for Revoke this morning. And he claims to be a calm, measured lawyer of a eurosceptic bent. lol.
    You've probably claimed to be that at some point tbf, even the lawyer bit under particularly extreme chemical enhancement.
  • Scott_P said:
    Painting May as a tactical genius here is quite the stretch, even for the Mail.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IanB2 said:

    There can't be a member leadership election until Brexit is done

    There can if there has to be

    My point was that the MPs can't keep an ERG member off the membership ballot.

    Yes, they can
  • Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    There can't be a member leadership election until Brexit is done

    There can if there has to be

    My point was that the MPs can't keep an ERG member off the membership ballot.

    Yes, they can
    If the ERG vote as a bloc it will be really hard to stop one of their number getting second place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Chris Grayling supports will be appointed in sole charge of delivering Leave would be a pretty decent Remain slogan.

    Surely better?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    TBH I'm always a bit wary of stories like "18 ministers threaten: We'll quit". It sounds impressive but, when it happens, it's Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton who is Under-Secretary for Fisheries in DEFRA and Helen Smithers who is Ministerial Aide for Sustainable Development in DBEIS or something.
  • Keep right on to the end of the road,
    Keep right on to the end,
    If the way be long, let your heart be strong,
    Keep right on round the bend

    If you're tired and weary still journey on,
    Till you come to your happy abode,
    Where all you love that you're dreaming off,
    Will be there at the end of the road

    Sir Harry Lauder



    Not often do I quote verse, but Sir Harry's words seem quite appropriate at present

    Have a good nights rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    TBH I'm always a bit wary of stories like "18 ministers threaten: We'll quit". It sounds impressive but, when it happens, it's Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton who is Under-Secretary for Fisheries in DEFRA and Helen Smithers who is Ministerial Aide for Sustainable Development in DBEIS or something.

    The story last week it was Gauke, who would take 12 with him
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Scott_P said:
    Painting May as a tactical genius here is quite the stretch, even for the Mail.
    They went to press on the basis of the government pre-briefing, before the decision.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Hahahaha
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    franklyn said:

    Looks likely that the revoke petition will hit 2 million by midnight.

    Peak banter would be if it hit 17,410,743 at 11pm on the 29th.

    Would have been much higher if the website had been working
    Yeah it makes it much harder to sign early and sign often if the website doesn't stay up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Betting: no 'no deal' on 29 March has come back in to 1.09 and is starting to look again like free money, just a week to wait.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Scott_P said:

    TBH I'm always a bit wary of stories like "18 ministers threaten: We'll quit". It sounds impressive but, when it happens, it's Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton who is Under-Secretary for Fisheries in DEFRA and Helen Smithers who is Ministerial Aide for Sustainable Development in DBEIS or something.

    The story last week it was Gauke, who would take 12 with him
    Cheerio......
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Nothing like the phrase "Army set up HQ in nuclear bunker" to make you think "hmm this sounds like its going well".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    TBH I'm always a bit wary of stories like "18 ministers threaten: We'll quit". It sounds impressive but, when it happens, it's Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton who is Under-Secretary for Fisheries in DEFRA and Helen Smithers who is Ministerial Aide for Sustainable Development in DBEIS or something.

    The story last week it was Gauke, who would take 12 with him
    So no great loss.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Barnesian said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    There are two equal sized fired up tribes. There isn't "the Brits". There is them and there is us.

    My guess is the Remain vote would go up in Scotland and Northern Ireland. But England is the only place that would count in a rerun. The Leave side - Johnson, Gove, Corbyn etc - are all immensely unpopular. I wonder who’d front Remain.
    Remain should go with Heidi Allen.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    It’s not possible. The Tories only chance will be for Corbyn to remain leader and I suspect that wouldn’t be the case for long.

    Even then Boris on the ballot would be enough for me to debate who I should vote for.
    Surely if the PM goes as Con leader then every ERG Con MP stands, and says "oh, goodness, terribly important we get it right, must put it to a vote" and they need a hundred rounds of voting to get it sorted, running down the clock to next Friday.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Now they just need to blink on the backstop and we can put this behind us.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    No "No Deal" on Betfair is down from 1.30 to 1.08.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Drutt said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    It’s not possible. The Tories only chance will be for Corbyn to remain leader and I suspect that wouldn’t be the case for long.

    Even then Boris on the ballot would be enough for me to debate who I should vote for.
    Surely if the PM goes as Con leader then every ERG Con MP stands, and says "oh, goodness, terribly important we get it right, must put it to a vote" and they need a hundred rounds of voting to get it sorted, running down the clock to next Friday.
    LOL!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    PA says that is conditional. We will see.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dixiedean said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    PA says that is conditional. We will see.
    NEW: updated draft conclusions: 'EUCO agrees to an extension to 22 May, provided WA is approved by the HoC next week. If the WA is not approved by the HoC next week, EUCO agrees to an extension until 12 April, expects UK to indicate a way forward for the consideration of EUCO
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Now they just need to blink on the backstop and we can put this behind us.
    ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Drutt said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    It’s not possible. The Tories only chance will be for Corbyn to remain leader and I suspect that wouldn’t be the case for long.

    Even then Boris on the ballot would be enough for me to debate who I should vote for.
    Surely if the PM goes as Con leader then every ERG Con MP stands, and says "oh, goodness, terribly important we get it right, must put it to a vote" and they need a hundred rounds of voting to get it sorted, running down the clock to next Friday.
    And if May leaves immediately for health reasons?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Revoke petition now over 2,000,000
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    No, they’ve kept it nebulous. The EU is desperate to avoid No Deal

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1108859874161709060?s=21
  • Ave_it said:

    CON Maj 80 if GE now

    National Interest

    Not if Labour change their leader.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    It would be very funny if, after the agitation to get rid of May, Tory members elected someone like Mark Francois.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    SeanT said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    No, they’ve kept it nebulous. The EU is desperate to avoid No Deal

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1108859874161709060?s=21
    The text is clear that the longer extension is conditional, the purpose being to force the UK to come back with an alternative plan by mid April when May's deal finally dies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    God the two muppets on Sky's paper review are a recipe for high blood pressure
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    Barnesian said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt for Recidivist

    Actually, judging by that poll I just put up, I really doubt that Remain would win a 2nd vote "easily". I was beginning to think it myself, but hmm.

    If we had a revote there would be a very strong possibility the Brits would say Fuck You all over again, and with added vehemence, because they weren't heard the first time.

    Also, what would the Remainer campaign say? What would be their slogan?

    The Leave campaign would be simple and brutally effective. TELL THEM AGAIN.

    There are two equal sized fired up tribes. There isn't "the Brits". There is them and there is us.

    My guess is the Remain vote would go up in Scotland and Northern Ireland. But England is the only place that would count in a rerun. The Leave side - Johnson, Gove, Corbyn etc - are all immensely unpopular. I wonder who’d front Remain.
    Remain should go with Heidi Allen.
    Excellent choice.

    Sounds like EU have decided what we can get. All this taking back control seems to be getting somewhere now it’s the EU who are doing the control-taking. Maybe we should invite them to do it a bit more?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    It's the Euro election timetable
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like we could be far more prepared for NO DEAL than the government has been letting on?

    Maybe explains why Theresa's relaxed about it?

    Signing gagging orders may be as far as they got though...
    I take the gagging orders bit with a pinch of salt. One of my jobs as an advisor to oil companies is helping with technical assessments of tenders for contracts. Every contract we award includes a non disclosure clause to prevent premature disclosure of contract details until everything has been finalised and the contract actually comes into effect. From what Sky News were trumpeting tonight that sounds very much like these supposed gagging orders.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    Euro elections?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    No, they’ve kept it nebulous. The EU is desperate to avoid No Deal

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1108859874161709060?s=21
    The text is clear that the longer extension is conditional, the purpose being to force the UK to come back with an alternative plan by mid April when May's deal finally dies.
    That plan could be anything. I thought we had to pass MV3. Turns out we don’t. They BLINKED.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    Hmm. Why could it be. I wonder?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    It would be very funny if, after the agitation to get rid of May, Tory members elected someone like Mark Francois.

    May is safe as Tory leader until December, she can only be removed as PM by VONC, May will not resign from either until 2022
  • Sean_F said:

    It would be very funny if, after the agitation to get rid of May, Tory members elected someone like Mark Francois.

    Don't.

    One of the worst aspects of this shambles, is that I've been forced to find out who this moron is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    It was obvious all along. They just didn't think we had the balls to go through with it.

    I said a few months ago we needed a "Vinnie Jones Brexit" Come out just crazed enough to think we'll actually do it and who cares if it hurts us. Whether its deliberate or not May seems to have just reached the crazed enough appearance to pull it off tonight.

    Thanks for the extension Europe. Now about that backstop . . .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Barnesian said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
    Ah yes of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Which likely leads to SM and CU BINO once the Commons finally makes a decision for that
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
    They've offered us a lifeline.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    No, they have crafted a clever approach to force Parliament to come back with a plan by mid April that will surely be softer than where May wanted to go.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Barnesian said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
    I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
    She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    edited March 2019
    Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day all over again. Can a 'we hold all the cards' be squeezed in before the 12th April?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Which likely leads to SM and CU BINO once the Commons finally makes a decision for that
    It would be a relief if they just took a decision.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    eek said:

    Drutt said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    How does that work? How does a Tory leadership contest be held and a new PM make decisions by 12 April?

    One thing is certain, leadership election rules are not fit for purpose for electing a PM during a crisis.
    Single candidate for the immediate future (Hague, Liddington) with a leadership election in June once immediate crisis is resolved.
    Don't come here with your sensible suggestions.
    No. If they try that then the membership will fry them alive
    Blame is laid at May - everyone gets a vote in June my concern would be how do you keep the party membership happy without a ERG member on the final 2 ballot paper.
    You don't. Activists won't support candidates in elections and the ground game is over.

    The only way the Tory party gets out of Brexit alive is to make a success of no deal. I have no idea if that is possible.
    It’s not possible. The Tories only chance will be for Corbyn to remain leader and I suspect that wouldn’t be the case for long.

    Even then Boris on the ballot would be enough for me to debate who I should vote for.
    Surely if the PM goes as Con leader then every ERG Con MP stands, and says "oh, goodness, terribly important we get it right, must put it to a vote" and they need a hundred rounds of voting to get it sorted, running down the clock to next Friday.
    And if May leaves immediately for health reasons?
    Pass. Probably same thing in PCP, Lidington acting PM.

    Lidington next PM is 28/1 on SkyBet...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day al over again.

    Just need the German car makers now...
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    what if she turns this offer down?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Ave_it said:

    CON Maj 80 if GE now

    National Interest

    Not if Labour change their leader.
    ha ha - not likely
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Going on bended knee to ask for end of June, and being told April 12, or May 23 if you get your shit together, could be described as blinking because they're terrified.
    Or, possibly you'll take what you're given.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day al over again.

    We can talk about KAZAKHSTAN, if you’d prefer?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
    She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
    But they always preferred a softer solution, which May apparently doesn't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    Barnesian said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
    I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
    If parliament has approved the WA then we're definitely leaving, so the European elections aren't such a concern.

    That's less relevant than the new cliff edge of April 12th. The EU have basically given MPs a free hit to vote against May for MV3 and force her out or otherwise force her to change direction.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    It doesn't matter as long as we are not leveraging that "fear" to get something we want and which they are reluctant to concede. They are playing for time, in fact, by giving away two weeks initially and possibly another month after that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    It would be very funny if, after the agitation to get rid of May, Tory members elected someone like Mark Francois.

    Don't.

    One of the worst aspects of this shambles, is that I've been forced to find out who this moron is.
    I think he's the worst.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Which likely leads to SM and CU BINO once the Commons finally makes a decision for that
    It would be a relief if they just took a decision.
    If Letwin Benn passes on Monday and Letwin is confident they have the votes now, that will lead to indicative votes and in the end likely 'Common Market 2.0' SM and CU as the future relationship in the political declaration will win
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited March 2019
    spire2 said:

    what if she turns this offer down?

    Tusk says she's gone for it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
    She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.

    Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.

    I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.

    Who cares?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    It would be very funny if, after the agitation to get rid of May, Tory members elected someone like Mark Francois.

    May is safe as Tory leader until December, she can only be removed as PM by VONC, May will not resign from either until 2022
    Unless Tory MPs change the rules on VONC - including denying members a vote on the new leader.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    EU press conference live on Newsnight
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Scott_P said:

    Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day al over again.

    Just need the German car makers now...
    Newsnight saying EU trade bodies (a la CBI) are shitting themselves......
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    No, they have crafted a clever approach to force Parliament to come back with a plan by mid April that will surely be softer than where May wanted to go.
    The two statements are not mutually exclusive. Macron went into this summit talking like a tough guy, Britain must dance or get out the disco, no extensions, enough already. When it actually came to it, the EU didn’t like the mad, scary No Deal glint in our crazy prime minister’s expression so they have adopted a clever new way to try and get a soft Brexit out of us. They HAVE blinked, and backed us all away from the cliff edge. But they have done so adeptly.

    Who knows, we might see a sensible compromise at the end.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?

    Because she's not mad and she's a politician, she wants to be able to say "it wasn't me, but it's still Brexit".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    SeanT said:

    Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day al over again.

    We can talk about KAZAKHSTAN, if you’d prefer?
    Go for it. Can we have a gamey traveller's tale involving Turkic initiation ceremonies while we're at it?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 320
    now past 2 million. 15.4 million to go
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    SeanT said:

    It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.

    It was obvious all along. They just didn't think we had the balls to go through with it.

    I said a few months ago we needed a "Vinnie Jones Brexit" Come out just crazed enough to think we'll actually do it and who cares if it hurts us. Whether its deliberate or not May seems to have just reached the crazed enough appearance to pull it off tonight.

    Thanks for the extension Europe. Now about that backstop . . .
    Clutch your comfort blanket.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Andrew said:

    Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.

    Who cares?
    You do, that's why you just posted about it instead of scrolling past
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Barnesian said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
    I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
    If parliament has approved the WA then we're definitely leaving, so the European elections aren't such a concern.

    That's less relevant than the new cliff edge of April 12th. The EU have basically given MPs a free hit to vote against May for MV3 and force her out or otherwise force her to change direction.
    Indeed. At least they specified about the deal being voted on next week, so there's at least a hard deadline on it being dead for good, which I appreciate.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Barnesian said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
    I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
    If parliament has approved the WA then we're definitely leaving, so the European elections aren't such a concern.

    That's less relevant than the new cliff edge of April 12th. The EU have basically given MPs a free hit to vote against May for MV3 and force her out or otherwise force her to change direction.
    That's my point. If they're less of a concern then why not 17 May? Or another date? Why swap to a Wednesday.

    It just doesn't seem to have been that well thought through and just punted to the last possible day. There are 5 weeks between April 12 and May 17, 5 weeks really ought to be long enough if the agreement has been passed already to wrap this up. And if its not, I don't see what difference those 3 extra days will make.
  • IanB2 said:

    The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.

    I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.

    Looking forward to the Tory manifesto for those elections.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    No "No Deal Brexit" is now down to 1.04. Crash Out on 29th March is over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Barnesian said:

    BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.

    Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.

    Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
    Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
    UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
    I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
    If parliament has approved the WA then we're definitely leaving, so the European elections aren't such a concern.

    That's less relevant than the new cliff edge of April 12th. The EU have basically given MPs a free hit to vote against May for MV3 and force her out or otherwise force her to change direction.
    That's my point. If they're less of a concern then why not 17 May? Or another date? Why swap to a Wednesday.

    It just doesn't seem to have been that well thought through and just punted to the last possible day. There are 5 weeks between April 12 and May 17, 5 weeks really ought to be long enough if the agreement has been passed already to wrap this up. And if its not, I don't see what difference those 3 extra days will make.
    The May date is IRRELEVANT. The deal isn't going to be agreed.
This discussion has been closed.