Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
On Monday the Commons likely votes for Letwin Benn, that enables a Common Market 2 SM and CU vote which likely passes, May tonight has said if MV3 fails the Commons will decide Brexit, thus if the ERG reject MV3 they likely end up with BINO
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, as everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of many on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.
May is back to My Deal or BINO/No Brexit again tonight and threatening the ERG again, see Tom Newton Dunn as I posted earlier, she is moving away again from My Deal or No Deal which was her position last night to threaten the EU to get the extension, job done with that
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
If she's half a brain, she'll hold MV3 next week, lose it, say "that's it, no deal then, on Friday - stuff your silly extension", and watch the EU scramble to give her concessions. Now they realise she'd rather no-deal than revoke, you can smell the panic in Brussels (and even more so in Dublin). I reckon the backstop would vanish faster than you could say "Hard border" as they aren't totally stupid, and would rather we left with a WA sans backstop than no-dealed.
I'm coming round to see May's view of Parliament at present. The remainer MPs have hobbled her only effective negotiation tactic by making no-deal look impossible. Today it finally made it back on the table, and the effect on the EU was pretty obvious - they've just blinked. Obviously, they've then tried to give parliament long enough to depose May, then find a vassalage arrangement more to the EU's liking - but she's still got the power to wind the thumbscrews down on them by rejecting their so kind offer "we leave Friday, but how about a phased transition to avoid chaos - say over the next three months". The important tactical thing for May now is to get us legally out so revoke is off the table - then she may finally get some sense out of parliament for where we go next.
We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!".
In what sense can it be said that the EU "blinked" if the withdrawal agreement hasn't changed?
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
That's true ; but then again avoiding Brexit is not a defeat for Europe.
So, businesses now need to plan for a possible crash-out not only on the 29th March, but also on the 12th April, 22nd May and perhaps later, thus reducing uncertainty. Have I got this right?
There's no 22nd May crash out. There's an April 12th crash-out, or a May 22nd brexit transition.
We can crash out on 22nd May. 1. MV3 passes. 2. Passage of legislation implementing WA is obstructed in Commons, and crucially the Lords. 3. We need more time, but EU doesn't want to grant it because of EU Parliament elections. 4. We crash out.
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
May wanted until the end of June with no plan and she's been given two weeks.
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.
May is back to My Deal or BINO/No Brexit again tonight and threatening the ERG again, see Tom Newton Dunn as I posted earlier, she is moving away again from My Deal or No Deal which was her position last night to threaten the EU to get the extension, job done with that
No she is back to my deal, or no deal, or extension.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
Was that ever really serious though? You can see why they might state it as a negotiating ploy, but it'd be an act of epic self-harm to refuse an extension solely out of irritation.
I'm not sure we've really improved our position at all after today. The ERG aren't going to budge with a real chance of no deal coming. Corbyn will continue to essentially follow the ERG line, refuse to talk to anyone, in the hope we crash out and the Tories get blamed. Remainers will continue to refuse any deal at all, in the hope it gets kicked into the long grass and eventually revoked.
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.
May is back to My Deal or BINO/No Brexit again tonight and threatening the ERG again, see Tom Newton Dunn as I posted earlier, she is moving away again from My Deal or No Deal which was her position last night to threaten the EU to get the extension, job done with that
No she is back to my deal, or no deal, or extension.
Extension and let the Commons decide including refusing now to rule out permanent Customs Union and soft Brexit ie a clear shift from last night when it was Deal or No Deal to now enabling BINO and a big blow to the ERG
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
May wanted until the end of June with no plan and she's been given two weeks.
This is is true, she tried to fuck with their elections and they said no, and she had to take whatever they'd give her. (Also to be expected.)
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
I don't think it's realistic to avoid Brexit. Given that constraint, the best option is accepting the deal. Unfortunately the ERG will see the extension as carte-blanche to arse around ad nauseam and may yet engineer a no-deal Brexit. It appears that no good deal goes unpunished...
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
Was that ever really serious though? You can see why they might state it as a negotiating ploy, but it'd be an act of epic self-harm to refuse an extension solely out of irritation.
I agree, but anybody could veto it and domestic politics beats international politics, so it wasn't entirely clear in advance that they were bluffing.
And yet Vince Cable is the one stepping down. Where's the Justice, eh?
Robert, did you not once say that if the UK left the EU, the immediate economic effect would make us 'like Singapore on speed'? After that you thought there might be problems, but in the short term there would be a fast and dramatic improvement.
Have we had the SoS phase yet, or is that to come?
the EU has infantilised our politicians. Its allowed them to deliberately put off, or blame Brussels, for unpopular decisions.
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
I don't think it's realistic to avoid Brexit. Given that constraint, the best option is accepting the deal. Unfortunately the ERG will see the extension as carte-blanche to arse around ad nauseam and may yet engineer a no-deal Brexit. It appears that no good deal goes unpunished...
More likely the ERG will see the extension lead the Commons to vote for SM and Customs Union BINO which only serve them right especially as May has now said she would let the Commons decide the way forward if MV3 fails
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
I don't think it's realistic to avoid Brexit. Given that constraint, the best option is accepting the deal. Unfortunately the ERG will see the extension as carte-blanche to arse around ad nauseam and may yet engineer a no-deal Brexit. It appears that no good deal goes unpunished...
More likely the ERG will see the extension lead the Commons to vote for SM and Customs Union BINO which only serve them right especially as May has now said he would let the Commons decide the way forward if MV3 fsils
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
I don't think it's realistic to avoid Brexit. Given that constraint, the best option is accepting the deal. Unfortunately the ERG will see the extension as carte-blanche to arse around ad nauseam and may yet engineer a no-deal Brexit. It appears that no good deal goes unpunished...
It's not realistic to cancel brexit now, but it's definitely realistic to delay it. All it needs is: 1) Parliament keeps voting to extend rather than crash out 2) ...and for elections etc as needed for (1) 3) ERG keeps voting against the deal 4) PM doesn't decide to go kamikaze 5) EU keeps allowing faff extensions
None of these are certain but they're all probable.
Then after maybe 18 months of Gimp Remain, moderate Tories should vote for a PV to make brexit happen or make it go away. Alternatively at some point the ERG decide to cash in their chips and pass the deal.
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
I don't think it's realistic to avoid Brexit. Given that constraint, the best option is accepting the deal. Unfortunately the ERG will see the extension as carte-blanche to arse around ad nauseam and may yet engineer a no-deal Brexit. It appears that no good deal goes unpunished...
More likely the ERG will see the extension lead the Commons to vote for SM and Customs Union BINO which only serve them right especially as May has now said he would let the Commons decide the way forward if MV3 fsils
This continues to be an issue where the balance of opinion depends on how the question is asked. Polls that refer to a public vote and which do not specify that Remain would be an option on the ballot paper secure more support for the idea than those which refer to another referendum and make it clear that remaining in the EU would be an option.
This was illustrated perfectly by YouGov over the weekend, when the results of two polls that it conducted at exactly the same time were released. The first was conducted by YouGov for The People’s Vote campaign. It referred to a public vote and did not state that remain would be an option. Nearly half (48%) said they were in favour while just 36% indicated that they were opposed. The second was conducted by the company for The Times. The question asked whether there should be a referendum on remaining or leaving. While 38% said that there should be such a referendum, 52% stated that there should not.
The one feature that these polls had in common was that the figures were very similar to what they had been in January, suggesting that the Brexit impasse has so far at least not served to persuade voters that holding another ballot is the only way of resolving the issue.
I agree, but anybody could veto it and domestic politics beats international politics, so it wasn't entirely clear in advance that they were bluffing.
Must admit, I was surprised by Macron's outbursts - had always assumed an extension was basically a given. Was it a bluff, or was he talked down?
No inside information but I'd guess a bit of both.
Also I guess they'd hoped to pressure moderate MPs into backing the deal, and the calculation changed a bit when TMay made a speech exploding her deal.
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.
May is back to My Deal or BINO/No Brexit again tonight and threatening the ERG again, see Tom Newton Dunn as I posted earlier, she is moving away again from My Deal or No Deal which was her position last night to threaten the EU to get the extension, job done with that
No she is back to my deal, or no deal, or extension.
Or is it her deal with a permanent customs union but which also ends free movement. At least you could argue to Brexit voters the government has (in theory) got control of our borders (if not our customs borders!). It might split the Tories but there would at least be the ending FoM sell to leave voters.
Norway plus seems utterly pointless - bar us losing our MEPs and a seat at the table what changes would anyone actually notice? Norway at least has its own customs borders and can do trade deals. I can see it as a transition - but frankly what is the point?
But of course May's deal allows all those options anyway - so why not vote for it and leave and over the next 21 months decide which option we want?
Given there are now effectively 3 options - namely the Deal, No Deal or a long extension with an unknown outcome the pressure must be back on ERGers to back the deal. Unfortunately remainers particularly on the opposition benches who might have backed the Deal to avoid No Deal can now vote against the Deal hoping for an extension. So it's difficult to say if we're any nearer a conclusion.
No the pressure is well and truly off the ERG. The rest of Parliament has blinked this week and now there is a final ticking clock running.
The ERG are 3 weeks from achieving victory now, unless the rest of Parliament can actually make a decision. Which we see scant evidence of.
I would have thought the ERG might be concerned parliament will support an extension leading to a soft Brexit or no Brexit.
I would have thought that weeks ago too. With May and others seemingly against it, that looks less likely now than it did weeks ago.
May is back to My Deal or BINO/No Brexit again tonight and threatening the ERG again, see Tom Newton Dunn as I posted earlier, she is moving away again from My Deal or No Deal which was her position last night to threaten the EU to get the extension, job done with that
No she is back to my deal, or no deal, or extension.
Or is it her deal with a permanent customs union but which also ends free movement. At least you could argue to Brexit voters the government has (in theory) got control of our borders (if not our customs borders!). It might split the Tories but there would at least be the ending FoM sell to leave voters.
Norway plus seems utterly pointless - bar us losing our MEPs and a seat at the table what changes would anyone actually notice? Norway at least has its own customs borders and can do trade deals. I can see it as a transition - but frankly what is the point?
But of course May's deal allows all those options anyway - so why not vote for it and leave and over the next 21 months decide which option we want?
Well indeed. Anyone who wants customs union Brexit or EEA Brexit should have ratified the deal months ago. Any of that could be achieved from transition.
<<We came with inches of a no-deal crash-out, we ask them for a lifeline, they give us one shorter than the ones we ask for, you proclaim "we have conquered them!">>
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the arranged date, everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of more on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The blinking part is: They said no extension without a plan. Faced with no plan, they agreed an extension.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
No, not really. They thought linking the extension to a plan might be helpful, encouraging Labour leavers to get May's deal across the line. If the deal went down again it is not credible to think that they had any reason actually to force us over the cliff. However once it became apparent that May had burned her bridges with MPs and the deal was not now ever going to pass - and indeed May looks likely to be out of office very soon - there was no point in continuing to maintain the position of conditionality. Particularly as discussing Brexit had already taken a day out of their summit and maintaining conditionality would have meant meeting urgently in summit again at the end of next week and repeating the whole experience; whereas now that should be unnecessary.
Comments
Yes, I don't really see how a small further delay represents the EU fundamentally blinking. Obviously, it's a slight climbdown from their professed deadline terms, but not from their fundamental negotiating ones. May also set a lot of store on originally brexiting on the
arranged date, as everyone should be reminded.
It only represents blinking if you believe the climbdown on deadline terms is the first to come of many on more fundamental negotiating terms, and stems more from a specific fear of effects on the european side, than a generalised desire both to accommodate Britain and minimise disruption both ends.
I'm not at all sure that it's the former - Britain has made that mistake before, leading to the massive miscalculations leading us up to where we are now - and may well be well-advised not to make it again.
The lack of firmness on that point is important because the path of least resistance to avoiding brexit involves lots and lots of extensions with no plan.
1. MV3 passes.
2. Passage of legislation implementing WA is obstructed in Commons, and crucially the Lords.
3. We need more time, but EU doesn't want to grant it because of EU Parliament elections.
4. We crash out.
I'm not sure we've really improved our position at all after today. The ERG aren't going to budge with a real chance of no deal coming. Corbyn will continue to essentially follow the ERG line, refuse to talk to anyone, in the hope we crash out and the Tories get blamed. Remainers will continue to refuse any deal at all, in the hope it gets kicked into the long grass and eventually revoked.
Must admit, I was surprised by Macron's outbursts - had always assumed an extension was basically a given. Was it a bluff, or was he talked down?
1) Parliament keeps voting to extend rather than crash out
2) ...and for elections etc as needed for (1)
3) ERG keeps voting against the deal
4) PM doesn't decide to go kamikaze
5) EU keeps allowing faff extensions
None of these are certain but they're all probable.
Then after maybe 18 months of Gimp Remain, moderate Tories should vote for a PV to make brexit happen or make it go away. Alternatively at some point the ERG decide to cash in their chips and pass the deal.
Holding Another Referendum
This continues to be an issue where the balance of opinion depends on how the question is asked. Polls that refer to a public vote and which do not specify that Remain would be an option on the ballot paper secure more support for the idea than those which refer to another referendum and make it clear that remaining in the EU would be an option.
This was illustrated perfectly by YouGov over the weekend, when the results of two polls that it conducted at exactly the same time were released. The first was conducted by YouGov for The People’s Vote campaign. It referred to a public vote and did not state that remain would be an option. Nearly half (48%) said they were in favour while just 36% indicated that they were opposed. The second was conducted by the company for The Times. The question asked whether there should be a referendum on remaining or leaving. While 38% said that there should be such a referendum, 52% stated that there should not.
The one feature that these polls had in common was that the figures were very similar to what they had been in January, suggesting that the Brexit impasse has so far at least not served to persuade voters that holding another ballot is the only way of resolving the issue.
emphasis added
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/third-time-lucky-perhaps/
Also I guess they'd hoped to pressure moderate MPs into backing the deal, and the calculation changed a bit when TMay made a speech exploding her deal.
Norway plus seems utterly pointless - bar us losing our MEPs and a seat at the table what changes would anyone actually notice? Norway at least has its own customs borders and can do trade deals. I can see it as a transition - but frankly what is the point?
But of course May's deal allows all those options anyway - so why not vote for it and leave and over the next 21 months decide which option we want?
No blinking involved.