It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
So we will not be leaving March 29 as repeatedly promised. It is decreasingly unlikely, MV3 will be brought to a vote, let alone passed. June 30 has been batted away in a few hours. All hail the triumphant leader?
BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.
Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.
Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
If parliament has approved the WA then we're definitely leaving, so the European elections aren't such a concern.
That's less relevant than the new cliff edge of April 12th. The EU have basically given MPs a free hit to vote against May for MV3 and force her out or otherwise force her to change direction.
This. Even EU types understand that a putsch takes a little time to organise, then you have to actually seize control before being able to change direction. So, Parliament gets to vote to ignore Erskine May and if that's a yes then votes on MV3. Which I expect to get utterly demolished. Then - surely - it's no confidence in the government and a fortnight to assemble a caretaker government to either do Norway+ or revoke.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Yes, the 22 May is a red herring considering that Theresa's deal will be crushed again, assuming it's voted on at all. With the 12 April thing, the EU have craftily created a mechanism whereby Brexit could actually whither on the vine and die.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
No, they have crafted a clever approach to force Parliament to come back with a plan by mid April that will surely be softer than where May wanted to go.
The two statements are not mutually exclusive. Macron went into this summit talking like a tough guy, Britain must dance or get out the disco, no extensions, enough already. When it actually came to it, the EU didn’t like the mad, scary No Deal glint in our crazy prime minister’s expression so they have adopted a clever new way to try and get a soft Brexit out of us. They HAVE blinked, and backed us all away from the cliff edge. But they have done so adeptly.
Who knows, we might see a sensible compromise at the end.
I think they realised after yesterday that May had zero chance of getting her deal through, so there was no longer point in trying to force things towards it. Also possible the French went out on a limb and were reined back in.
People who also think voodoo polls are interesting.
It's amazing that people still fall for this crap. I could go "sign" it 100 times if I wanted. Someone with a botnet account could be signing it hundreds of thousands of times.
BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.
Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.
Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
I think April 12th is the last date that the UK can legally initiate elections for 23rd May. If we go past that, we can't take part in the Euro-elections. So they have left open the possibility of a long delay plus Euro elections.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
No, they have crafted a clever approach to force Parliament to come back with a plan by mid April that will surely be softer than where May wanted to go.
The two statements are not mutually exclusive. Macron went into this summit talking like a tough guy, Britain must dance or get out the disco, no extensions, enough already. When it actually came to it, the EU didn’t like the mad, scary No Deal glint in our crazy prime minister’s expression so they have adopted a clever new way to try and get a soft Brexit out of us. They HAVE blinked, and backed us all away from the cliff edge. But they have done so adeptly.
Who knows, we might see a sensible compromise at the end.
I think they realised after yesterday that May had zero chance of getting her deal through, so there was no longer point in trying to force things towards it. Also possible the French went out on a limb and were reined back in.
Likely May colluded and asked them to make these kind of comments to ratchet up the pressure in getting her deal through.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
People who also think voodoo polls are interesting.
It's amazing that people still fall for this crap. I could go "sign" it 100 times if I wanted.
Do you have 100 email addresses?
You know there are free idiot proof services that let you do this? I use them if I ever have to create a sign-in for something I am not sure about. I get the confirmation, log-in and then if isn't what I want, the email address destroys itself in a short time.
BBC: EU blinks. UK will have until 22nd May without pre-condition of MV3 passing.
Leaders finding it very difficult to agree - very worried about No Deal happening.
Not sure where you've seen that - the BBC story I'm reading says unconditional to 12 April, conditional on MV3 to 22nd May.
Just noticed 22nd May is a Wednesday, all other days mooted are Fridays. Why would they change it to a Wednesday? Friday seems to me to make far more sense, end of business week and have weekend to adjust any systems etc
UK Euro elections are due on May 23rd.
I understand that, so why not say May 17th? If we've passed the withdrawal agreement by April 12th then what difference with the 20th, 21st and 22nd of May make? We should be able to leave on the 17th.
If parliament has approved the WA then we're definitely leaving, so the European elections aren't such a concern.
That's less relevant than the new cliff edge of April 12th. The EU have basically given MPs a free hit to vote against May for MV3 and force her out or otherwise force her to change direction.
This. Even EU types understand that a putsch takes a little time to organise, then you have to actually seize control before being able to change direction. So, Parliament gets to vote to ignore Erskine May and if that's a yes then votes on MV3. Which I expect to get utterly demolished. Then - surely - it's no confidence in the government and a fortnight to assemble a caretaker government to either do Norway+ or revoke.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Tusk confirms at press conference EU member states have unanimously agreed extension of Art 50 until 12th April for UK Parliament to put forward alternative options if the Deal fails again. If the Deal passes extension until May
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
"Nothing specific" is handy. They know May only too well.
Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union simultaneously, and tried to face down armoured vehicles with cavalry charges. England sent hundreds of thousands of men to France, lost all its equipment and many men, went home and (apart from Dieppe) didn't face the Germans again on French soil for four years. You had a point?
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day al over again.
We can talk about KAZAKHSTAN, if you’d prefer?
Go for it. Can we have a gamey traveller's tale involving Turkic initiation ceremonies while we're at it?
I have a great story about Kazakhstan that didn’t involve leaving London. Years back I worked for a financial information company, main product being securities research and portfolio management tools. We were asked by one of the big 4 accountancy firms who had a contract to promote capitalism to the Kazakhs to build a share trading game based on real LSE data. We’d done this before for lots of companies to have on their website, the difference here being that there’d be a real monetary prize for whoever did best over a few months, not much in westerm terms but not to be sniffed at by local standards.
So we launched it, and within days multiple players had portfolios worth several squillion tenge, completely impossible of course. We found a bug that they’d exploited, reset their account and fogured that was it. Next day, more squillion tenge accounts, rinse, repeat for multiple iterations. Took about a week to find all the vukns they’d been exploiting.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
I don’t see that at all. Point 4 qualifies points 1 to 3. The WA will not be reopened, so the solutions the UK suggests cannot involve that.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
Two weeks to get rid of her.
The problem with this as a plan is that Theresa eats up delays like manna from heaven.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Not true, Peston crunched the numbers last night and said Common Market 2 was close to a majority if a few more Remainers switched to it eg if Kyle amendment is defeated it becomes very likely indeed
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
An infinite number, since it accepts mailinator addresses.
For reference, banning *.mailinator.com is the most basic level of security imaginable for any online service. A petitions site that doesn't is utterly worthless.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Of course, it's always possible that after this week's shenanigans the MPs will take a long and sober look at themselves and vote for Theresa's deal in penitence.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Look at the wording. We HAVE to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
I don’t see that at all. Point 4 qualifies points 1 to 3. The WA will not be reopened, so the solutions the UK suggests cannot involve that.
Yes, but the EU could add an addendum to it, just as it has just done.
Does Tusk only like a short extension as Poland only lasted 4 weeks in the War??
Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union simultaneously, and tried to face down armoured vehicles with cavalry charges. England sent hundreds of thousands of men to France, lost all its equipment and many men, went home and (apart from Dieppe) didn't face the Germans again on French soil for four years. You had a point?
The cavalry charge against tanks was a German myth.
There was nothing archaic about cavalry in Eastern Europe. The Germans and Russians had thousands of horsemen.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
I'm a sucker for punishment.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
An infinite number, since it accepts mailinator addresses.
For reference, banning *.mailinator.com is the most basic level of security imaginable for any online service. A petitions site that doesn't is utterly worthless.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
I think this ends with EEA/EFTA and some further compromise on the backstop.
Hurrah, it's EU blinks, Ireland shitting itself groundhog day al over again.
We can talk about KAZAKHSTAN, if you’d prefer?
Go for it. Can we have a gamey traveller's tale involving Turkic initiation ceremonies while we're at it?
I have a great story about Kazakhstan that didn’t involve leaving London. Years back I worked for a financial information company, main product being securities research and portfolio management tools. We were asked by one of the big 4 accountancy firms who had a contract to promote capitalism to the Kazakhs to build a share trading game based on real LSE data. We’d done this before for lots of companies to have on their website, the difference here being that there’d be a real monetary prize for whoever did best over a few months, not much in westerm terms but not to be sniffed at by local standards.
So we launched it, and within days multiple players had portfolios worth several squillion tenge, completely impossible of course. We found a bug that they’d exploited, reset their account and fogured that was it. Next day, more squillion tenge accounts, rinse, repeat for multiple iterations. Took about a week to find all the vukns they’d been exploiting.
Seems like they had a decent handle on capitalism already!
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
"Nothing specific" is handy. They know May only too well.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
No, they have crafted a clever approach to force Parliament to come back with a plan by mid April that will surely be softer than where May wanted to go.
The two statements are not mutually exclusive. Macron went into this summit talking like a tough guy, Britain must dance or get out the disco, no extensions, enough already. When it actually came to it, the EU didn’t like the mad, scary No Deal glint in our crazy prime minister’s expression so they have adopted a clever new way to try and get a soft Brexit out of us. They HAVE blinked, and backed us all away from the cliff edge. But they have done so adeptly.
Who knows, we might see a sensible compromise at the end.
I think they realised after yesterday that May had zero chance of getting her deal through, so there was no longer point in trying to force things towards it. Also possible the French went out on a limb and were reined back in.
Likely May colluded and asked them to make these kind of comments to ratchet up the pressure in getting her deal through.
Or whether they explicitly colluded or not (I'd guess not) she and they both wanted her deal to pass, so they both wanted to put pressure on MPs. It seemed like it was working for a bit - the deal spiked in the betting. Then she made that speech and blew up any chances the deal had of passing...
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
No Deal is quite possible if Parliament remains at loggerheads.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
Except that the 10% in Peterborough will all be legitimate ballots that are uniquely cast by those eligible to vote. Not some bot signing hundreds of times.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
And don't be surprised if that doesn't mollify MPs - anyone who hinted they were changing their deal vote because of her statement or might have considered voting for it but for her statement is either an idiot, or using it as an excuse, and contrition won't lead them to a u-turn.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
No Deal is quite possible if Parliament remains at loggerheads.
Parliament will in the end likely go for BINO over No Deal, as this EU decision for extension tonight to enable that shows by rejecting May's Deal the ERG have likely ensured we stay in the EU in all but name with SM and CU and the backstop terms for NI effectively applying permanently to the whole UK
Nope, just tried right now. I didn't even use one of the backup domains, went for a *.mailinator.com.
Apparently the numbers sometimes drop back down, so they're probably letting stuff come in in real time the hosing out the dodgy-looking ones when they get around to it. This would make life harder for spammers than blocking abuse on input, because it's harder to tell what they're using to catch you.
Maybe try making a little bot for some particular country or postcode and see if you're still in the numbers a few hours later.
Of course, it's always possible that after this week's shenanigans the MPs will take a long and sober look at themselves and vote for Theresa's deal in penitence.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
I'm a sucker for punishment.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
But any extension involves taking part in the EU election, and that election will be fought on Brexit alone, not austerity, or dementia tax etc. How many of those 450 will have confidence in their respective parties' manifestos?
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
That's a reasonable argument. The electorate was 46.5m for the Brexit referendum, and about 46.8m for the 2017GE, so the 10% bar could be above 4.7m now.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
No Deal is quite possible if Parliament remains at loggerheads.
Parliament will in the end likely go for BINO over No Deal, as this EU decision for extension tonight to enable that shows, by rejecting May's Deal the ERG have likely ensured we stay in the EU in all but name
It's like the EU do have a Tardis.
By granting a 2 week extension suddenly everyone is posting the same talking points they were using 2 weeks ago.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
I think this ends with EEA/EFTA and some further compromise on the backstop.
Which is a clear defeat for May (and for most of the Tories generally), as I was saying. And a win for the EU.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
I'm a sucker for punishment.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
Once again, I think you underestimate our MPs' ability to plumb new depths.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
Let's say you are right about this accidental victory. For one May's colleagues are not likely to see it that way, she will struggle to last out next week, but for two, in what way do you expect them to fold in Mid-april? How many more times will both sides put us through this?
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
I'm a sucker for punishment.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
But any extension involves taking part in the EU election, and that election will be fought on Brexit alone, not austerity, or dementia tax etc. How many of those 450 will have confidence in their respective parties' manifestos?
Sad to say, no-one really cares about the EU elections. So it doesn't really matter,
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
Let's say you are right about this accidental victory. For one May's colleagues are not likely to see it that way, she will struggle to last out next week, but for two, in what way do you expect them to fold in Mid-april? How many more times will both sides put us through this?
We've got 3 weeks now and by then something must change.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
Genuinely struggling to see how you come to that conclusion. We leave with No Deal on 12th April if nothing changes. But there is now a little more time within which MPs can force change. Why would May want that?
Look at the wording. Previously we HAD to pass the deal to get an extension to May 22. Now we just have to come up with some alternative. Nothing specific. The EU has been spooked. It really really doesn’t want No Deal.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
Except now when her deal dies next week something else must be suggested to the EU, and parliament will come up with something if she does not.
What makes you think Parliament will come up with something?
I'm a sucker for punishment.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
But any extension involves taking part in the EU election, and that election will be fought on Brexit alone, not austerity, or dementia tax etc. How many of those 450 will have confidence in their respective parties' manifestos?
Sad to say, no-one really cares about the EU elections. So it doesn't really matter,
One of the reasons, of course, why we MUST leave. Glad you admit it.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
No, really it isn't. Edit/ of course, they don't want no deal either. But they haven't blinked; they have us where they want us
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
Let's say you are right about this accidental victory. For one May's colleagues are not likely to see it that way, she will struggle to last out next week, but for two, in what way do you expect them to fold in Mid-april? How many more times will both sides put us through this?
We've got 3 weeks now and by then something must change.
You'd hope so, but this lot continually surprise us! How they keep managing to not change I do not know. There's been the most glacial of changes in position among any of them, it's remarkable.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
That's a reasonable argument. The electorate was 46.5m for the Brexit referendum, and about 46.8m for the 2017GE, so the 10% bar could be above 4.7m now.
I'm not absolutely sure the protections against personation are quite as comprehensive on an online petition as they are in proper elections. Would you be happy with recalling the 1972 European Communities Act on the basis of 5M online sigs?
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
Understood. This is simply thoughts on how to shout this up and present the petition to increase is impact. No guarantees at all of success.
Of course, it's always possible that after this week's shenanigans the MPs will take a long and sober look at themselves and vote for Theresa's deal in penitence.
Apparently the numbers sometimes drop back down, so they're probably letting stuff come in in real time the hosing out the dodgy-looking ones when they get around to it.
Makes sense. The last one ended up with 40,000 signatures from the Vatican (population 600ish), so they had to do something. The basic problem remains though: there's no ID checking.
Sorry for going on about this, it's one of my personal bugbears. Same as twitter and facebook getting manipulated, or the Daily Mail comments site, and yet after years of this shit this sort of thing still gets reported as meaningful.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
Understood. This is simply thoughts on how to shout this up and present the petition to increase is impact. No guarantees at all of success.
As an aside, I wish that these sorts of petitions were properly secure and did actually have some legal force. At least in terms of making the Government properly debate the issues. Unfortunately neither of these things is currently true.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
The last one got 4.1 million votes and got nowhere. This one will be the same.
That was in the days after the 2016 referendum. The fact that opinion has strengthened against Brexit doesn't bode well for its long term viability.
1.5 million of which 500000 was while we were all sleeping : Autobots rigged by EU
Nope, I was awake (I’m abroad and had prep to do for a 7am Uk meeting). While the numbers are high they are no different from UK ecommerce sales figures over a 24hr day.
Rubbish! Anyway until you get to 17.5 million you have no argument and in the UK we do not decide policy on online petitions we had a national referendum which you want to ignore because you despise democratic choices if it is not what you agree with just like the EU
Nope we are a Parliamentary democracy. All a petition does is suggest to parliament something that should be debated - which hopefully this will be so it removes one of the 3 options from the table.
Then as I stated earlier the final 2 options can be decided upon and the people paid and elected to make decisions will have finally done their job and made a decision.
I think you have misunderstood the petition systems. Unfortunately (and I mean that genuinely) it does not mean it is automatically debated. It only means it is considered by the Petitions Committee who will recommend whether or not it should be debated.
As an aside this petition still has a ways to go to beat the last one asking for a re-run of the referendum which reached 4.1 million signatures.
For want of a better word, "exactly".
These petitions are like self selecting opinion polls - i.e. practically useless.
For the record, I am sure than 2 million (or 3 or 4 or even 5 million) people feel strongly enough about leaving the EU that they'll sign an online petition. That doesn't obviate the fact that 17.2 million people voted to Leave.
Apparently the numbers sometimes drop back down, so they're probably letting stuff come in in real time the hosing out the dodgy-looking ones when they get around to it.
Makes sense. The last one ended up with 40,000 signatures from the Vatican (population 600ish), so they had to do something. The basic problem remains though: there's no ID checking.
Sorry for going on about this, it's one of my personal bugbears. Same as twitter and facebook getting manipulated, or the Daily Mail comments site, and yet after years of this shit this sort of thing still gets reported as meaningful.
Geolocation isn't that reliable so the Vatican number may just be neighbouring bits of Rome, not to mention VPNs, IP blocks getting rented out etc.
Meanwhile the revoke petition has passed 2 million.
I think we have a half decent benchmark for petitions, the 10% currently in play in Peterborough.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
That's a reasonable argument. The electorate was 46.5m for the Brexit referendum, and about 46.8m for the 2017GE, so the 10% bar could be above 4.7m now.
I'm not absolutely sure the protections against personation are quite as comprehensive on an online petition as they are in proper elections. Would you be happy with recalling the 1972 European Communities Act on the basis of 5M online sigs?
It's not a formal process. It's simply a way to gauge what level of numbers is notable.
It’s pretty fucking obvious now, the EU is terrified of No Deal. Ireland will be shrieking behind closed doors.
Kamikaze May has definitely caused them to blink.
She’s gone up in my estimation. Not hard, admittedly. But yes her mad frothing new no deal zombie vampire persona seems, finally, to have spooked the Eurocrats. Good.
I don't follow this - what has it achieved? We're no closer to no deal or deal than we were before this, in fact further away on the latter. She's spooked them into allowing us 2 more weeks to waste discussing options that have been discussed for 2 years?
She’s got a major concession out of them. First they wanted their deal approved or we leave March 29. Then they wanted their deal approved or we leave April 11. Now we don’t have to pass their deal at all. Just come up with some different plan in mid April = new extension.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
You are misreading this completely. The deal was a compromise, with the EU's preference being for something softer. Which they are now much more likely to get, with a good chance that the whole thing will collapse.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
They said they wanted their deal or no deal. When offered no deal, they blinked. It really is as simple as that.
Why would they take a No Deal when for the sake of two weeks they could get something a whole lot better?
Do you literally find it impossible to believe that the EU has its own fears and weaknesses?
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
The May date is irrelevant as the deal is going down, and the PM with it. The only date that matters is 12 April by when we need to come up with a plan - anything other than May's deal needs more time so the UK proposal will be a plan plus a request for a longer extension - which the EU will grant, as the guy being interviewed on Newsnight is saying right now.
I reckon we are heading for Euro elections.
Certainly, and probably a general election and/or referendum as well. Once we start to move toward a softer Brexit the whole thing will snowball and will end in revocation. There is no majority in Parliament for any deal, Norway or Common market 2 are no more likely to command a majority than Mays effort.
Either revocation, referendum, or Norway/CM2 are all possible now. Not possible (meaning most unlikely) are No Deal or May's deal. Leaving this year also looks extremely unlikely.
No Deal is quite possible if Parliament remains at loggerheads.
Parliament will in the end likely go for BINO over No Deal, as this EU decision for extension tonight to enable that shows by rejecting May's Deal the ERG have likely ensured we stay in the EU in all but name with SM and CU and the backstop terms for NI effectively applying permanently to the whole UK
They might, but I'm more inclined to believe they will spend three weeks faffing around.
Where does the majority for soft Brexit come from? Remainers will still want to remain, the ERG will still want No Deal, and their numbers will swell once May's Deal goes down.
Comments
All hail the triumphant leader?
Either way, May is gone this time next week.
TMay was right. No Deal is her only trump card and she needs to keep it in her hand.
It's amazing that people still fall for this crap. I could go "sign" it 100 times if I wanted. Someone with a botnet account could be signing it hundreds of thousands of times.
Barnier: France. 4 weeks?
So we launched it, and within days multiple players had portfolios worth several squillion tenge, completely impossible of course. We found a bug that they’d exploited, reset their account and fogured that was it. Next day, more squillion tenge accounts, rinse, repeat for multiple iterations. Took about a week to find all the vukns they’d been exploiting.
I know it’s hard to believe this inept and flailing government, and our autistic PM, might have done something right, but in my opinion they have. They might have done it by mistake, mind you.
But we are where we are. I reckon the EU would fold again if faced with No Deal in mid April. They don’t want the economic pain. They don’t want to be the bad guys that put a border across Ireland.
For reference, banning *.mailinator.com is the most basic level of security imaginable for any online service. A petitions site that doesn't is utterly worthless.
If this gets tto 10% of the electorate, somewhere around the 4.5 million mark IIRC, that's a good target and should be shouted out as a successful collection phase. The difference between voting and petitioning means this is never getting to 17m, but that shouldn't be the concern.
Recall Brexit.
There was nothing archaic about cavalry in Eastern Europe. The Germans and Russians had thousands of horsemen.
No deal is clearly still possible. But even now I struggle to believe the 450 or so who claim to be totally against no deal - to the point of continual lies in blaming May for threatening them with it - will be unable to agree something before this new deadline. It only has to be enough to justify yet another extension in the eyes of the EU.
Unless you buy the conspiracy theory that May is still working undercover for Remain, she has been forced into a defeat. Her deal - on which she has pinned her reputation and credibility - is about to be destroyed.
Nope, just tried right now. I didn't even use one of the backup domains, went for a *.mailinator.com.
Maybe try making a little bot for some particular country or postcode and see if you're still in the numbers a few hours later.
By granting a 2 week extension suddenly everyone is posting the same talking points they were using 2 weeks ago.
Forward with Britain
Is viewcode = Scottish football?
Oh, wait...
Sorry for going on about this, it's one of my personal bugbears. Same as twitter and facebook getting manipulated, or the Daily Mail comments site, and yet after years of this shit this sort of thing still gets reported as meaningful.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1108425485967593472
Not sure he should use the date analogy though - everyone knows dates can go pretty badly.
These petitions are like self selecting opinion polls - i.e. practically useless.
For the record, I am sure than 2 million (or 3 or 4 or even 5 million) people feel strongly enough about leaving the EU that they'll sign an online petition. That doesn't obviate the fact that 17.2 million people voted to Leave.
Of course they do.
Heavens above I despise this government, and TMay. But I can see when she has actually won the UK some room, by playing the crazy No Deal trump card. She played it, she won some time. And more flexibility from the EU.
It’s not he defeat of hitler. But it is something.
Where does the majority for soft Brexit come from? Remainers will still want to remain, the ERG will still want No Deal, and their numbers will swell once May's Deal goes down.