Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn

123457

Comments

  • Well it's 11 oclock
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JonathanD said:

    I agree. Do TIG want to be a centre left / anti-Corbyn group and therefore be attractive to everyone from the centre to soft left or do they want to be a centrist party that is attractive from the centre left to the centre right .
    By defecating/defecting the Europhile ex-Tory Tiggers have taken the heat off Jezza on antisemitism.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    Cyclefree said:

    The law still applies and any decision is still reviewable by the courts. ...
    I really think it would be better if the law prescribed specific conditions for depriving people of citizenship, rather than a vague one like "conducive to the public good". That's the case in the USA, incidentally.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2019
    Sean_F said:

    I think much would turn on the size of the Labour vote. I couldn't see a Conservative polling much under 40%.
    South Cambs was pretty much the Tories' worst result in last year's locals: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_South_Cambridgeshire_District_Council_election
  • Is it really controversial to have a situation whereby if you join a proscribed terrorist organisation abroad, we have the right to forbid your re-entry to the UK if possible?

    The original counter was it would render her stateless, if there is now a way of getting around that, what’s the problem?
    Well indeed.

    And people are speaking about this as if Javid is creating a new law that could be exploited in the future. He's not he is using exist laws that were created by his predecessors.

    If you don't like the law maybe campaign to get the law changed. But I don't think Javid is doing anything wrong implementing the existing law how he has.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2019

    Paul Mason piece in the New Statesman:


    I'm sold, what do we have to do to make this happen?
    Get on the phone to Tom Watson and Greg Hands.
  • Well it's 11 oclock

    On the Hour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,480
    Cyclefree said:

    The law still applies and any decision is still reviewable by the courts.

    But the problem is Corbyn’s views of Jews. That is what is spooking so many British Jews and anyone else with dual citizenship (declaration of interest: I have dual citizenship). I do not trust him to deal fairly with the Jewish community or, indeed, anyone else who is deemed to be an enemy or traitor.

    Rather than being for the many he seems to surround himself with and listen only to a very small group of people who echo his own thoughts. He has made it very clear - and his reaction to the Tiggers has shown this - that you are either for him or against him. And if you are against him, you no longer count.
    But the discretion of the Home Secretary appears to be rather wide in these cases.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    _Anazina_ said:

    It's shorthand. Or do you insist that the Tories are referred to as The Conservative & Unionist Party in all citations?
    The Liberals still exist. They are a different party to the Liberal Democrats.
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Someone bought me his biog of Gordon Brown one Christmas. It is a truly awful book.
    I hope you defriended then from Facebook for that....have they also bought you boxed wine and the best of Radiohead live as presents?
  • Chris said:

    I really think it would be better if the law prescribed specific conditions for depriving people of citizenship, rather than a vague one like "conducive to the public good". That's the case in the USA, incidentally.
    We are a Common Law nation. No reason the courts can't apply common sense.

    Even if it did it wouldn't change the outcome in this case. Pretty sure treason and joining a proscribed terrorist group would be on the specific conditions list.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,480
    edited February 2019

    Well indeed.

    And people are speaking about this as if Javid is creating a new law that could be exploited in the future. He's not he is using exist laws that were created by his predecessors.

    If you don't like the law maybe campaign to get the law changed. But I don't think Javid is doing anything wrong implementing the existing law how he has.
    Quite true. But this case has highlighted the difficulties with the current law - which effectively gives the Home Secretary the power of exile in a particular set of cases. And for a particular class of UK born citizens.

  • Chukka was very clear. The aim is to break the mould of our politics.

    This is bigger than Brexit, even if it fails.
    Yes but what does it even mean? Breaking the mould is a slogan, not a policy, and still less a philosophy. It only seems profound in comparison with Brexit means Brexit or Education education education.
  • Nigelb said:

    But the discretion of the Home Secretary appears to be rather wide in these cases.

    I think "appears to be" is the stress here. It is judicially reviewable.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

    BBC News 24?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    JonathanD said:

    I agree. Do TIG want to be a centre left / anti-Corbyn group and therefore be attractive to everyone from the centre to soft left or do they want to be a centrist party that is attractive from the centre left to the centre right .
    On the other hand, if they really want to catch the mood and create something new, the quicker they get away from Gapes's "we are the Labour Party they left behind" stuff, the better.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    John Woodcock should defect to the Tiggers at 8:15 in the morning :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,480
    TGOHF said:

    By defecating/defecting the Europhile ex-Tory Tiggers have taken the heat off Jezza on antisemitism.
    Why ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,480

    I think "appears to be" is the stress here. It is judicially reviewable.
    But on what grounds ?

  • The Liberals still exist. They are a different party to the Liberal Democrats.
    In theory they exist in reality they don't.

    Liberals is an appropriate short hand for Liberal Democrats in the same way Tories are for The Conservative and Unionist Party.
  • Chris said:

    I really think it would be better if the law prescribed specific conditions for depriving people of citizenship, rather than a vague one like "conducive to the public good". That's the case in the USA, incidentally.
    It's quite hard to get rid of American citizenship, as you'd expect from a country that taxes your worldwide income even if you never go there.
  • As expected. TIG in double figures now.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

    Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

    Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

    It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

    Stupid.
  • Nigelb said:

    Quite true. But this case has highlighted the difficulties with the current law - which effectively gives the Home Secretary the power of exile in a particular set of cases. And for a particular class of UK born citizens.

    All Jews have an entitlement to Israeli citizenship - it's not a stretch to see how this could be used against them:

    https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/shamima-begum-should-not-be-stripped-of-her-citizenship-1.480316

    For all that, @Philip_Thompson is right, Javid is acting reasonably and doing the right thing by this country under the law as it stands. It's not exactly fair on Bangladesh, though, is it? A change to the law should be considered.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    Is it really controversial to have a situation whereby if you join a proscribed terrorist organisation abroad, we have the right to forbid your re-entry to the UK if possible?

    The original counter was it would render her stateless, if there is now a way of getting around that, what’s the problem?
    She is a Brit. And in Britain we have laws to deal with illegal activity. So one of the laws seems to be that the HS can strip someone of their citizenship subject to various conditions (as described by @Chris ).

    My point is that as a judgement, not legal call, I disagree with it.
  • There should have been a modern treason law with very narrow definition of treason based on aiding a nation or group that British armed forces are currently fighting. That would catch the ISIS supporters but not the pro Kurd people (for instance). The problem we face is that convicting the Jihadi brides in the UK will be difficult. Monitoring them will cost an enormous sum and there is a good chance of a terrorist incident that will cause a hell of a reaction. Difficult situation made worse by lack determination by politicians to take controversial decisions in advance. I don't like the revocation of citizenship approach in this case.
  • Nigelb said:

    But on what grounds ?

    I mean, a decision which is politically motivated could be:
    - Irrational
    - Disproportionate (whether at common law or HRA)
    - Without due process

    etc. etc.

    The Home Secretary's ability to make it up as they go along is much smaller than it might appear.
  • Nigelb said:

    Why ?

    I expect that Soubry, Wollaston and Allen will be equally scathing about Corbyn. Brexit and dislike for Corbyn is their common denominator

    Allen Soubry and Wollaston all join TIG
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,872
    edited February 2019
    Drip drip approach it is then. #defectionwatch

    Wollaston's statement mentions right wing takeover/pandering to DUP and ERG. Positioning as the new Centrists?
  • Nigelb said:

    Quite true. But this case has highlighted the difficulties with the current law - which effectively gives the Home Secretary the power of exile in a particular set of cases. And for a particular class of UK born citizens.

    In very extreme cases and subject to judicial review.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I don't know why Heidi Allen joined the Conservatives in the first place.

    She was well to the Left of Cameron/Osborne even in 2014-2015.
    She is to the left of several people in the Labour Party!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    In theory they exist in reality they don't.

    Liberals is an appropriate short hand for Liberal Democrats in the same way Tories are for The Conservative and Unionist Party.
    The LibDems is the shorthand.

    But, I don’t really care -- let us ask the abundant members of the party on this board.

    Certainly, when Gordon Brown in his charmless way referred to them endlessly as the Liberals, they objected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204


    All Jews have an entitlement to Israeli citizenship

    Can you get entitlement with a conversion to Judaism ?
  • They've gone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Here we go!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Sarah Wollaston would be quite useful...she can claim with justification that the Tory party she joined under Cameron isn’t there anymore, has lurched to the right etc etc etc.

    I think Dr W would be the best leader for the Tiggers. Trust the good doctor!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    YES!!!!

    Good riddance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Sandpit said:

    Here we go!

    What channel are you on, parliament channel on bloody select comittees.
  • TOPPING said:

    She is a Brit. And in Britain we have laws to deal with illegal activity. So one of the laws seems to be that the HS can strip someone of their citizenship subject to various conditions (as described by @Chris ).

    My point is that as a judgement, not legal call, I disagree with it.
    Not anymore she is not. ;)

    You disagree with it. I don't. She sacrificed her British citizenship when she went to fight for ISIS. I see no reason to bring her back. Her choice, her actions, she can live with the consequences.
  • https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

    Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

    From his website: "I want a Labour government that will fully renationalise the NHS, railways and utilities, and postal service. I want to see all funding restored to the emergency services."

    I agree that we should remove the wasteful marketised competition in the NHS. Rail franchises should be allowed to expire so that our government can run the trains as opposed to the French, German, Dutch and Italian governments. Fine with the post office.

    But utilities? "Fully Renationalise" Thames Water and the others? Are you mad? The policy in the manifesto was to set up state owned regional companies to out-compete the private monopolies, not to buy them. How many billions would that cost? And thats before their respective share prices soar knowing the government has committed to buy.

    That of course is the policy. Not to purchase United Utilities. But to steal it. Too many of these cretins think we can just take these firms without compensation and everything will be fine.

    THIS is why I am staying in the party. To save it from utter wazzocks like our candidate for the Mayor of North Tyneside
  • So who is next then.....
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    _Anazina_ said:


    I think Dr W would be the best leader for the Tiggers. Trust the good doctor!
    TIG has good gender balance.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?
  • All your MPs are belong to TIG.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080

    The LibDems is the shorthand.

    But, I don’t really care -- let us ask the abundant members of the party on this board.

    Certainly, when Gordon Brown in his charmless way referred to them endlessly as the Liberals, they objected.
    No objection here
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Seven on Monday, one on Tuesday, three today.

    Conservative and Labour MPs will be looking around and thinking "who's next?". This thing could rapidly take on some momentum. (Small m.)
  • Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.
    It's not 'Javid's definition'. You don't seem to have got your head around the fact that this power has been in place for a long time and used many dozens of times. Maybe the power shouldn't exist, or should be subject to much greater restrictions - I think there's a strong argument for that - but let's not pretend that this is something which Javid has invented.

    Incidentally, what everyone seems to have forgotten is that it used to be the case that women who married a foreigner automatically and immediately lost their British citizenship. (This happened to my mother, who because of her marriage during the war suddenly found that she had to report to the police station regularly as a 'foreign alien').
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited February 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

    It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

    Stupid.
    The sane plan was to reintroduce something that was almost Tyne and Wear council.

    Durham, Gateshead, South Tyneside, and Sunderland Councils rejected it due to fears that Newcastle would be the only place to gain from it. Northumberland was only added to try to keep the scheme going.

    I suspect its going to send Gateshead / Newcastle co-operation back decades...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    So glad to see the back of Wollaston, the prospects of me voting Tory have increased significently
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

    Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

    Change is coming and you are rattled
  • Statement says the three will vote with the government on policies they agree with
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    So who is next then.....

    Ian Austin, I'd guess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    So who is next then.....

    Phillip Lee
  • Statement says the three will vote with the government on policies they agree with

    I am fully in favour of the having of cake and also the eating of it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    Looking forward to the dramatic "crossing the floor" moment at PMQs. :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News seem to think that 8+3=10.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906

    We are a Common Law nation. No reason the courts can't apply common sense.

    Even if it did it wouldn't change the outcome in this case. Pretty sure treason and joining a proscribed terrorist group would be on the specific conditions list.
    You're surely not being serious about "common law" meaning the courts reach decisions based on "common sense" rather than law, are you? I never know when people are posting silly stuff just for amusement here.

    Fortunately whether people have committed treason isn't decided by online comments (at least not yet). I hope this case will be properly examined at appeal, and it will be interesting to see the conclusion.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2019
    .
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    _Anazina_ said:


    I think Dr W would be the best leader for the Tiggers. Trust the good doctor!
    Like when she lied during the referendum more than any other MP? Wouldn't trust her to run a bath let alone a political party.
  • The Independent Group is now 7-4 Female majority. That's quite distinctive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,103
    eek said:

    The sane plan was to reintroduce something that was almost Tyne and Wear council without the Wear bit.

    Gateshead and South Tyneside rejected it due to fears of being always outvoted so what's left is the only thing Newcastle could create.

    I suspect its going to send Gateshead / Newcastle co-operation back decades...
    Yeah I agree with all of these points. Sensible point would be to have the HQ in Gateshead to placate the ‘I don’t want to be ruled by Newcastle’ brigade.

    Oh well. Greater Northumberland it is.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    GIN1138 said:

    Looking forward to the dramatic "crossing the floor" moment at PMQs. :D

    Bet May is relieved that didn't happen. Seems like Soubry and co didn't completely wish to burn their bridges.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    GONE in 60 seconds.

    Tory Party splits in the Commons.

    LOL.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    It's not 'Javid's definition'. You don't seem to have got your head around the fact that this power has been in place for a long time and used many dozens of times. Maybe the power shouldn't exist, or should be subject to much greater restrictions - I think there's a strong argument for that - but let's not pretend that this is something which Javid has invented.

    Incidentally, what everyone seems to have forgotten is that it used to be the case that women who married a foreigner automatically and immediately lost their British citizenship. (This happened to my mother, who because of her marriage during the war suddenly found that she had to report to the police station regularly as a 'foreign alien').
    The missing piece to that puzzle being that she was a child when she left. And is only just now not a child (the UN definition being anyone under 18). If you think the best way to help humanity is to abandon children who have been abused, then that is a view I don't share.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    Pulpstar said:

    Phillip Lee
    On PL live now, saying if he left the party would become "UKIP lite". Rather late to be worrying about that, I'd have thought.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The effect is to halve the Government's majority - even with DUP support.
  • AndyJS said:

    Sky News seem to think that 8+3=10.

    Their letter says 'sitting alongside' TIG.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,103

    Change is coming and you are rattled
    I’m afraid it will be negative change.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,681
    Nigelb said:

    Both preening ideologues.

    For sure. And I would say that Galloway is (or rather was, he's past it now) the more dangerous because he was extremely talented as a communicator whereas Bone is just quite talented.

    A smattering of preening ideologues (if they are good at it) can IMO be healthy for our politics but only so long as they don't gain power. A fine line to tread, I guess, since if they are VERY good at it they might well gain power.

    One to watch - Nick Ferrari.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    SunnyJim said:

    YES!!!!

    Good riddance.

    Blue Corbynite.

    So hilarious how frit you are.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,654
    _Anazina_ said:

    Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

    It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

    Stupid.
    Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906
    edited February 2019
    So now the main line of attack in PMQ's is "we've got fewer splitters than you"?
  • Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    They don't need to come up with anything like that. They simply watch as The Brexit sweeps away all the established political norms.

    How many TIGgers can we look forward to? 20? 50? 100?
  • Change is coming and you are rattled
    try to make that sound a little less threatening, will you?
  • Mr. Topping, she's an adult who said she didn't regret going to join ISIS, a group noted for its industrial scale sexual slavery, attempting religious genocide against the Yazidis, burning prisoners alive, and crucifying children.

    Severed heads in a bin? Not fazed.

    She didn't leave ISIS. ISIS was defeated.
  • Their letter says 'sitting alongside' TIG.
    It's not a party, so I think the difference is moot
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2019
    TOPPING said:

    The missing piece to that puzzle being that she was a child when she left. And is only just now not a child (the UN definition being anyone under 18). If you think the best way to help humanity is to abandon children who have been abused, then that is a view I don't share.
    Yes, that's a sensible argument. I'm not actually defending Javid's action (I think it's arguable either way), just trying to distinguish between valid arguments and invalid ones.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    eek said:

    The sane plan was to reintroduce something that was almost Tyne and Wear council.

    Durham, Gateshead, South Tyneside, and Sunderland Councils rejected it due to fears that Newcastle would be the only place to gain from it. Northumberland was only added to try to keep the scheme going.

    I suspect its going to send Gateshead / Newcastle co-operation back decades...
    Indeed. Given that Gateshead IS Newcastle to anyone visiting from outside they are making an entirely false distinction.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    Yeah I agree with all of these points. Sensible point would be to have the HQ in Gateshead to placate the ‘I don’t want to be ruled by Newcastle’ brigade.

    Oh well. Greater Northumberland it is.
    Are there council elections this year beyond the Mayoral election?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    eek said:
    Their description of the ERG is correct. However, their voting records show that they are not prepared to tolerate any form of Brexit, despite their manifesto commitments.
  • justin124 said:

    The effect is to halve the Government's majority - even with DUP support.

    The three conservative mps defecting to TIG have said they will vote with the government on occassions and certainly they will not support a vonc
  • It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,103

    Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.
    I mean it isn’t part of County Durham. Hasn’t been for a long time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    MattW said:

    Four fifths of MPs voted in support of leaving the EU ...
    I must have missed that vote
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    Yes, that's a sensible argument. I'm not actually defending Javid's action (I think it's arguable either way), just trying to distinguish between valid arguments and invalid ones.
    Understand - I have accepted that it seems to be perfectly legal for Javid to have taken the action he did. Another fault line in the UK, I suppose.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    I'd say it's still 50/50 whether this remains a temporary parliamentary thing or morphs into a new party or movement. A lot will depend on the public and polling response and whether they get backers, members and councillors.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,733
    It makes Jeremy Hunt's argument to the EU look a bit silly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/brexit-labour-jeremy-hunt-eu

    Jeremy Hunt has seized on Labour’s split, claiming to European foreign ministers it proved that only concessions to win round Conservative rightwingers will get the Brexit deal through the Commons.
  • It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party.

    That was pretty frank. I'd expect more defections.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    edited February 2019
    Chris said:

    You're surely not being serious about "common law" meaning the courts reach decisions based on "common sense" rather than law, are you? I never know when people are posting silly stuff just for amusement here.

    Fortunately whether people have committed treason isn't decided by online comments (at least not yet). I hope this case will be properly examined at appeal, and it will be interesting to see the conclusion.
    Actually to some extent he is correct. We do still have the situation where a jury can decide not to follow the law if it feels it is wrong. The judge is supposed to neutrally advise on the letter of the law but the jury does not have to follow his guidance if they choose not to.
This discussion has been closed.