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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    I made that point last night.
    It used to be fashionable in Lebanon for well to do pregnant girls to move to the US to have their babies thus gaining US citizenship for the child. Nationality was always an important consideration in the Middle East. Passports (such as Palestinian ones) could become unusable overnight.
  • IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    See, a Tory Corbynista
    That is not this conservative's attitude. I am saddened but not vengeful
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Chris Williamson in full 'listening and understanding' mode:

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1098140605455233025

    Complete whopper him.
    If anyone deserves the appellation “traitor” and “coward” it is Corbyn himself, who serially rebelled against the policies of the party under whose banner he was elected and who did not have the courage to form his own party or to stand under the banner of a party whose policies he actually agreed with.

    Now, like a parasite, he has taken over and infected a once great party and turned it into a left-wing BNP.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TGOHF said:


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.
    It sure is.Surely the Lib Dems will join.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

    It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

    Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.

    If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.

    A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM! :open_mouth:
    Dislike of those two goes wide
    Indeed. I'm not sure JRM will stand anyway, and Boris isn't going to get past the MPs for 101 well-documented reasons.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    “Liberals”?

    Did the last thirty years not happen to you?

    As you have got the very name of the party wrong, I suspect you may not be a reliable judge!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    See, a Tory Corbynista
    That is not this conservative's attitude. I am saddened but not vengeful
    You'd be a prime recruit
  • Yorkcity said:

    TGOHF said:


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.
    It sure is.Surely the Lib Dems will join.
    I just cannot see any difference between TIG and the Lib Dems and I am disappointed in that
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    Snap
  • Hatton yesterday, now Sky has Galloway demanding his membership
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    If the ultimate choice was May's deal or No-deal then yes. But not until that do-or-die moment.


    I suspect a chunk or even all of them would still vote against, hoping for an extension.

    Both they and the ERG are extremists of their own kind - it's all or nothing.
  • Mr. Sodium, welcome to PB.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Yorkcity said:

    TGOHF said:


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.
    It sure is.Surely the Lib Dems will join.
    I just cannot see any difference between TIG and the Lib Dems and I am disappointed in that
    Except that they are not really liberals.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1098167213834543104

    Jezza is putting the band back togehter
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Gorgeous George on Sky News talking about wanting to rejoin Labour, and denying that Berger is leaving because of antisemitism. :o
  • Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    Why not both?? One way or another Brexit will be settled in a month or so time (subject to terms and conditions)...
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    See, a Tory Corbynista
    That is not this conservative's attitude. I am saddened but not vengeful
    You'd be a prime recruit
    Not at present but if TIG succeed in stopping Corbyn getting near PM they will have my full support
  • Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    Quite what TIG is intended to achieve is one of the great mysteries of our time. Though as a useful by-product Shadsy gave away 6/4 Labour hold Streatham. Not sure if it is still there, or if Ladbrokes has noticed that one of the runners, Chuka, might not come under starter's orders.
  • Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
    And if someone like Corbyn were appointing the Home Secretary?
  • IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    TGOHF said:


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.
    It sure is.Surely the Lib Dems will join.
    I just cannot see any difference between TIG and the Lib Dems and I am disappointed in that
    Except that they are not really liberals.
    I think the LibDems need to make a case for what that means, if they want to be seen as different. Because I reckon to a majority of voters (even reasonably well-informed ones), they're just seen as "in between the other two". Given which, a very close working relationship between TIG and LD is required, or they'll immediately cancel each other out.
  • Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    Welcome to PB and your first post is short and very succinct
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    See, a Tory Corbynista
    That is not this conservative's attitude. I am saddened but not vengeful
    You'd be a prime recruit
    Not at present but if TIG succeed in stopping Corbyn getting near PM they will have my full support
    Probably done already. Read the lead!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    OTOH This Begum decision is a bit of a boon to those of us with absolubtely no claim to another nationality (Particularly European) whatsoever as a quid pro quo of sorts for losing our FoM :p
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    On Topic: good header and I agree with the betting recommendation, lay JC next PM at 7. Thankfully I don't have to because I am well short already at an average 5.8. Smug city.

    The only way that he gets to be next PM is if TM calls a snap 'back me or sack me' election as a last resort reaction to her Brexit deal being frustrated and Labour win it.

    That combination of events is quite possible but it is not '7' possible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
    What a touching faith in a Jeremy Corbyn-led administration you have. Even under Blair they threw out an ancient shouty Jew from their conference.
  • Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    Did he say pounds or Shekels?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Pulpstar said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.
    Cant see it myself.

    I think all 11 will lose
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    So it's to be synchronised defecating during PMQs.

    O tempera
  • I see Gorgeous George is touring the news studios, accusing others of opportunism.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.
    Cant see it myself.

    I think all 11 will lose
    I hope you got on the 6-4 offered by Ladbrokes for the red army holding Streatham !
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
    That's for naturalised persons who would be made stateless (but who are able to become nationals of other countries).

    For those who wouldn't be made stateless he can deprive them of UK citizenship if he's satisfied it "is conducive to the public good".
  • Harry Cole
    ‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

    Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

    Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    Snap
    Enjoy the feeling. Then wind your neck in before there's an election, because that "for us or against us" attitude is what has put a pretty solid ceiling on Corbyn's support.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    He better have proof
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The latter is 48% of the vote, quite likely more if recent polling is accurate.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Harry Cole
    ‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

    Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

    Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.

    While @bigjohnowls and @old_labour wonder what all the fuss is about and wish good riddance to those who have left.

  • Pulpstar said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.
    Cant see it myself.

    I think all 11 will lose
    And when they are 40
  • This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
    What a touching faith in a Jeremy Corbyn-led administration you have. Even under Blair they threw out an ancient shouty Jew from their conference.
    Not in an AS way surely
  • Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
    And if someone like Corbyn were appointing the Home Secretary?
    Or someone on the right deciding every muslim had to sign an oath of allegiance as one UKIP MEP proposed a few years ago. Add on the possibility of having your citizenship stripped and it gets very dangerous indeed. We are back in the mindset of the wars of religion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281
    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    TGOHF said:


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.
    It sure is.Surely the Lib Dems will join.
    I just cannot see any difference between TIG and the Lib Dems and I am disappointed in that
    Except that they are not really liberals.
    They are, as yet, rather inchoate.
    What they become will be to a great extent determined by who joins them. It’s notable that they don’t intend to become a formal party until the end of the year.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Pulpstar said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.
    Cant see it myself.

    I think all 11 will lose
    No, because hardly any of the 11 will stand. The ones that stand will all lose
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    He better have proof
    He said that Al Jazeera have a recording of it from yesterday, and that Sky News know about it but won't show it. He sounds like the full Ken Livingstone Experience!
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    FFS, while the Labour Party is busy crippling itself with splits, could the Tories just try to hold it together for 5 minutes?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    edited February 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    Only a million? They should have gone to the Russians.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Sodium said:

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

    It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.
    Javid is trying to revoke her citizenship but it's doubtful whether he will succeed. Quite a few IS fighters have returned to the UK, so it won't be clear to the courts why she's a special case.
  • Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    Did he call them "The Israeli Group"? :lol:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Cyclefree said:

    If anyone deserves the appellation “traitor” and “coward” it is Corbyn himself, who serially rebelled against the policies of the party under whose banner he was elected and who did not have the courage to form his own party or to stand under the banner of a party whose policies he actually agreed with.

    Now, like a parasite, he has taken over and infected a once great party and turned it into a left-wing BNP.

    Steady the buffs!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sodium said:

    Thanks for the welcomes.


    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    Why not both?? One way or another Brexit will be settled in a month or so time (subject to terms and conditions)...
    I think starting a new political party by alienating the majority of the voting public is probably not the wisest choice.

    Also I have a few doubts that Brexit is going to be settled in a months time.
    Lol @ majority of the voting public

  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    He better have proof
    He said that Al Jazeera have a recording of it from yesterday, and that Sky News know about it but won't show it. He sounds like the full Ken Livingstone Experience!
    Why on earth would they need to take £1m from Israel?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited February 2019
    Sodium said:

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

    It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.
    I am sure there were German jews making exactly tjose same arguments in the early 1930s. Just because something is unthinkable now does not mean it will remain so. And having the laws on place to allow such discrimination is extremely dangerous.

    Edit. Welcome by the way. Good to see some new voices here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

    BREXIT KAIJU !
  • geoffw said:

    So it's to be synchronised defecating during PMQs.

    O tempera

    Situation normal then.
  • Scott_P said:
    George = Robbie Williams?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:
    The Blues-facilitating Brothers?
  • TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got to be honest I don't think the political class have taken Brexit all that well... :D

    Not really any question as to who the establishment is now..
    No need for lizard specs anymore, the NWO is laid bare for all to see
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI8AMRbqY6w
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited February 2019
    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    Only a million? They should have gone to the Russians.
    Even if a foreign state (America, Israel, Russia or perhaps the EU) were responsible for funding, it would doubtless be funnelled through a friendly billionaire on a yacht and not handed over in used fivers by the ambassador. Though the question of who precisely is funding this and various other groups that have sprung up recently is legitimate.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The EU ship is about to sail, so no I don't think the IG is just the Remain Party. Brexit has been the catalyst though, as it has for many non-politicians. The group will build up a lot of goodwill and momentum in the next six weeks, so the timing is quite good. But it's hard to say how things will pan out after 29 March.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

    Try this one. Sky news
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=lrX6ktLg8WQ

    Www.Parliamentlive.tv for proceedings in the House of Commons.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.

    Dont expect LFI to condemn it though

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1097888710492897280

    Tom Bower is a piece of work. If anyone has read any of his 'biographies' they'll know what I mean. I read one on Maxwell and even with that open goal it was unresearched 'fact' mixed with garbled opinion written badly. Calling someone a 'self hating Jew' sums up his intellectual rigour rather well.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited February 2019
    Re Javid’s decision, my thoughts FWIW:-

    1. Home Secretaries have the power to remove British citizenship provided they act within the law. They do not have complete discretion to do whatever they want.
    2. Whether he has acted within the law can be tested in the courts. I would be curious to know how such a case would be funded and how any lawyer acting for her could obtain instructions.
    3. Regardless of the legal position, was it wise of him to do so? If his audience is Tory voters and to make Labour seem as if they are on the side of an IS member, probably.
    4. But I am not sure that it was wise to do what he did for three reasons:-
    (a) we’ve said we won’t do anything to bring her back. Best just leave her in obscurity rather than continue giving the narcissist more publicity. If she did manage to make it back to Britain it would also give us and the security services time to decide how to deal with her on her return. Decisions made in haste often end up being regretted.
    (b) it is the Iraqi and Syrian authorities who ought to deal with her and have a first chance at investigating and prosecuting her. Not Britain since any trial here will be practically impossible given the difficulties of getting evidence and witnesses here to therequired standard. But this looks like we’re dumping them with the responsibility.
    (c) it looks as if we’re dumping Bangladesh with the reponsibility or possibly Holland. If we do it to other countries, they can do it to us.

    Plus - if he has got the law wrong or not exercised his powers correctly he will give IS and their symapthisers a tremendous boost, which is the last thing we need

    Better to have ignored her and taken time quietly to think about the best way of handling cases such as this in conjunction with other countries. I would have quietly encouraged in every way possible the authorities there to deal with her under their system of justice. British citizens should not get a free pass from facing the consequences of whatever crimes they may have committed abroad just because they are British, which seems to be the effective default position of many commenting on this case.
  • Dadge said:

    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The EU ship is about to sail, so no I don't think the IG is just the Remain Party. Brexit has been the catalyst though, as it has for many non-politicians. The group will build up a lot of goodwill and momentum in the next six weeks, so the timing is quite good. But it's hard to say how things will pan out after 29 March.
    Chukka was very clear. The aim is to break the mould of our politics.

    This is bigger than Brexit, even if it fails.
  • Sandpit said:

    This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

    Try this one. Sky news
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=lrX6ktLg8WQ

    Www.Parliamentlive.tv for proceedings in the House of Commons.
    Lovely, thanks.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited February 2019
    Roger said:


    This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.

    Dont expect LFI to condemn it though

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1097888710492897280

    Tom Bower is a piece of work. If anyone has read any of his 'biographies' they'll know what I mean. I read one on Maxwell and even with that open goal it was unresearched 'fact' mixed with garbled opinion written badly. Calling someone a 'self hating Jew' sums up his intellectual rigour rather well.
    Strange, considering he's married to Veronica Wadley, who was such a paragon of truth and unbiased reporting during her spell at the Evening Boris Substandard.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited February 2019

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

    He better have proof
    He said that Al Jazeera have a recording of it from yesterday, and that Sky News know about it but won't show it. He sounds like the full Ken Livingstone Experience!
    Why on earth would they need to take £1m from Israel?
    He will have been talking about this.2 mins 58 seconds in Thats not really possible to extrapolate Israel is funding TIG though

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley/secret-video-reveals-israeli-plot-take-down-uk-minister
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited February 2019
    Sodium said:

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

    It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.
    Define "completely at odds to our entire way of life" is the problem.

    And don't give Jeremy ideas wrt putting Jewish people in jail.

    And welcome!
  • Morning all, an excellent thread and a solid 1/6 tip :)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Anyone else imagining Hector Soubry marching into the first tigger meeting and barking 'right, here's what we are doing ' :D
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I see Gorgeous George is touring the news studios, accusing others of opportunism.

    He knows how to win a by election from Labour.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Sodium said:

    Foxy said:

    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The latter is 48% of the vote, quite likely more if recent polling is accurate.

    Yes that was the Lib Dems logic at the last election I believe. I'm not sure it still holds much water.
    The LibDem failure in 2017 can be put down to the general GE campaign (which was remarkable for being so little about Brexit), continuing fallout from the coalition, poor leadership, and the electoral system.

    The parties ignore the 48% at their peril.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

    Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2019
    I do wonder about the risks for the TIG here in accepting Tory defectors quite so quickly; it dilutes the impact of their message so far (though obviously they also need to grow from Conservative sympathisers too). Perhaps a CIG would be in order for a while first.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Parliament channel on Select committee !
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,281
    Roger said:

    Two thirds of all MPs don't want to Leave the EU

    Two thirds of Labour MPs don't want Corbyn as leader.

    Parliamentary democracy rules OK!

    Four fifths of MPs voted in support of leaving the EU ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Harry Cole
    ‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

    Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

    Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.

    George is a busted flush. Brand Galloway no longer sells.

    For many years an exceptionally talented orator and debater, now 'gone over' and nothing like the force he was. Has become a caricature of himself.

    In his prime GG was one of those politicians who I liked, but on the strict proviso he got nowhere near real power. There are plenty of the current crop who I place in that category too. For example, Peter Bone.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2019
    Paul Mason piece in the New Statesman:
    Suppose, instead of another eight or ten MPs from the Labour and Conservative parties, half of all MPs in parliament joined Chuka Umunna’s group. They would become the government without an election. Suppose they then said to the public, as Umunna and co. have: “send us your ideas for what policies we should pursue,” adding “but don’t rush”.

    You would then have the ideal form of neoliberal governance in the UK – and not far off what you have in the French National Assembly under Emmanuel Macron... Their task would be – as Macron’s is – to delay as long as possible the open fight between the two rising forces: radical leftism and authoritarian racism.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/02/save-his-project-jeremy-corbyn-must-bring-labour-s-old-guard-side
    I'm sold, what do we have to do to make this happen?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Sodium said:

    Foxy said:

    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The latter is 48% of the vote, quite likely more if recent polling is accurate.

    Yes that was the Lib Dems logic at the last election I believe. I'm not sure it still holds much water.
    Sure, uncle Vince couldn't capitalise on it, but it certainly is a potentially large pool of voters.

    In otber news, an interesting welcome for May in Brussels. Nothing has changed!

    https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1098168653693009921?s=19
  • I do wonder about the risks for the TIG here in accepting Tory defectors quite so quickly; it dilutes the impact of their message so far (though obviously they also need to grow from Conservative sympathisers too). Perhaps a CIG would be in order for a while first.

    Sarah Wollaston would be quite useful...she can claim with justification that the Tory party she joined under Cameron isn’t there anymore, has lurched to the right etc etc etc.
  • IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
    The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group
    TIG is quite obviously a remain party
    I expect its secretly also a pro joining the Euro party.

    Be interesting to see if they come clean on that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Pulpstar said:

    This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

    BREXIT KAIJU !
    Umunna will transform into MECHA CHUKKA and fight it on the South Bank. #tokusastsu
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbs
    Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.
    Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?

    You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
    With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs
    In a Brexit election, maybe.

    But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.

    The Tories will take that seat from her.
    Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.
    I think much would turn on the size of the Labour vote. I couldn't see a Conservative polling much under 40%.
    I don't know why Heidi Allen joined the Conservatives in the first place.

    She was well to the Left of Cameron/Osborne even in 2014-2015.
  • TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

    It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.
    Define "completely at odds to our entire way of life" is the problem.

    And don't give Jeremy ideas wrt putting Jewish people in jail.

    And welcome!
    Is it really controversial to have a situation whereby if you join a proscribed terrorist organisation abroad, we have the right to forbid your re-entry to the UK if possible?

    The original counter was it would render her stateless, if there is now a way of getting around that, what’s the problem?
  • IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
    The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group
    TIG is quite obviously a remain party
    I expect its secretly also a pro joining the Euro party.

    Be interesting to see if they come clean on that.
    They will spin it as being a pro centrist, pro business party the only way to achieve their objectives is to rejoin.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

    BREXIT KAIJU !
    Umunna will transform into MECHA CHUKKA and fight it on the South Bank. #tokusastsu
    The leader of the Germans will save us

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azEvfD4C6ow
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's not an accurate statement.

    The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.
    And if someone like Corbyn were appointing the Home Secretary?
    The law still applies and any decision is still reviewable by the courts.

    But the problem is Corbyn’s views of Jews. That is what is spooking so many British Jews and anyone else with dual citizenship (declaration of interest: I have dual citizenship). I do not trust him to deal fairly with the Jewish community or, indeed, anyone else who is deemed to be an enemy or traitor.

    Rather than being for the many he seems to surround himself with and listen only to a very small group of people who echo his own thoughts. He has made it very clear - and his reaction to the Tiggers has shown this - that you are either for him or against him. And if you are against him, you no longer count.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281
    kinabalu said:

    Harry Cole
    ‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

    Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

    Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.

    George is a busted flush. Brand Galloway no longer sells.

    For many years an exceptionally talented orator and debater, now 'gone over' and nothing like the force he was. Has become a caricature of himself.

    In his prime GG was one of those politicians who I liked, but on the strict proviso he got nowhere near real power. There are plenty of the current crop who I place in that category too. For example, Peter Bone.
    Both preening ideologues.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    I do wonder about the risks for the TIG here in accepting Tory defectors quite so quickly; it dilutes the impact of their message so far (though obviously they also need to grow from Conservative sympathisers too). Perhaps a CIG would be in order for a while first.

    I agree. Do TIG want to be a centre left / anti-Corbyn group and therefore be attractive to everyone from the centre to soft left or do they want to be a centrist party that is attractive from the centre left to the centre right .
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    “Liberals”?

    Did the last thirty years not happen to you?

    As you have got the very name of the party wrong, I suspect you may not be a reliable judge!
    It's shorthand. Or do you insist that the Tories are referred to as The Conservative & Unionist Party in all citations?
  • TOPPING said:

    Sodium said:

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

    It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.
    Define "completely at odds to our entire way of life" is the problem.

    And don't give Jeremy ideas wrt putting Jewish people in jail.

    And welcome!
    Is it really controversial to have a situation whereby if you join a proscribed terrorist organisation abroad, we have the right to forbid your re-entry to the UK if possible?

    The original counter was it would render her stateless, if there is now a way of getting around that, what’s the problem?
    It seems far far less controversial than the French and Russian approach to problematic Isis members.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Roger said:


    This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.

    Dont expect LFI to condemn it though

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1097888710492897280

    Tom Bower is a piece of work. If anyone has read any of his 'biographies' they'll know what I mean. I read one on Maxwell and even with that open goal it was unresearched 'fact' mixed with garbled opinion written badly. Calling someone a 'self hating Jew' sums up his intellectual rigour rather well.
    Someone bought me his biog of Gordon Brown one Christmas. It is a truly awful book.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281

    Dadge said:

    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The EU ship is about to sail, so no I don't think the IG is just the Remain Party. Brexit has been the catalyst though, as it has for many non-politicians. The group will build up a lot of goodwill and momentum in the next six weeks, so the timing is quite good. But it's hard to say how things will pan out after 29 March.
    Chukka was very clear. The aim is to break the mould of our politics.

    This is bigger than Brexit, even if it fails.
    Indeed.
    Remember, though, that ‘breaking the mould’ was an SDP slogan, over three decades ago.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Dadge said:

    Sodium said:

    Foxy said:

    Sodium said:

    Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

    If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

    The latter is 48% of the vote, quite likely more if recent polling is accurate.

    Yes that was the Lib Dems logic at the last election I believe. I'm not sure it still holds much water.
    The LibDem failure in 2017 can be put down to the general GE campaign (which was remarkable for being so little about Brexit), continuing fallout from the coalition, poor leadership, and the electoral system.

    The parties ignore the 48% at their peril.
    And the LibDem campaign was actually worse than in 2015, little noticed amid the Tory shambles. I mean, 'look left, look right, go forward'...
This discussion has been closed.