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  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Have the gang of three left Con yet? :D
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited February 2019
    I wonder what the EU will make of all the drama in the UK if today’s rumours re Tories joining the IG are true. How can May stand there and say give me this and it will pass the Commons.

    The second EU vote under the guise of a ratification by the public might start to gather momentum .
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbs
    Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.
    Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?

    You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
    With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs
    In a Brexit election, maybe.

    But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.

    The Tories will take that seat from her.
    Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.
    Well, err, the Remainer LibDems didn’t take it in 2017.

    And they couldn’t even re-take wafer-thin Cambridge.

    Remember the ex LibDem MP for Cambridge was popular -- he still lost by a whopping amount.

    I think if the election is held this year and is about Brexit, then Allen has a chance (maybe 50:50)

    If the election is in 2020 or after, I think Allen loses.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.

    In the long run that might be a mistake.
  • https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    The MMS are terrible aren't they. I mean the Beeb and Sky never have Owen Jones on to talk about Labour unless there is 'y' in the name of the day of the week and the Guardian doesn't publish any of his columns or let him make videos or anything.

    And then there's Grace Blakely. Never been near a TV studio.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Chris said:

    The press are getting this wrong. The law doesn't generally allow for people being deprived of UK citizenship because they could apply for other citizenship. That's the case only if they are British by naturalisation. And in that case there is also a stricter criterion to be met: "conducive to the public good because the person, while having that citizenship status, has conducted him or herself in a manner which is seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, any of the Islands, or any British overseas territory".

    This case is troubling. I personally agree with the Sun and the gammon consensus that she deserves to rot. But that is one of the (many) reasons that I am not fit to be the Home Secretary. Javed is the Home Secretary and yet appears to be no better suited to the role than me. In fact he is increasingly looking like the pits. Not only is he acting in a cheap tabloid manner to impress cheap tabloid people, he is quite obviously doing so purely in order to further his Tory leadership ambitions. Not like. Not like one little bit.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sandpit said:

    Endillion said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
    People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.

    Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.

    Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.

    Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
    Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.
    Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.
    And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.
    Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.
    Yes, there are several muslim Gulf states who frown upon Israeli stamps in passports. Most Westerners travelling to both used to get a second passport for the purpose. Some countries are okay on a 'don't ask, don't tell' basis, but others can be very strict and the rules can change at short notice.
    The other pariah state for entry/exit stamps was of course South Africa. My father had two passports, one for SA and one for everywhere else south of the Sahara.

    The bizarre thing was that he did combine trips to SA with trips to elsewhere in Africa, and so would carry both passports with him. He also made sure to carry miniatures and half bottles of Scotch in case the wrong passport was found in his luggage. AFAIK he never had any trouble he couldn't bribe his way out of.
    Ahhhhhh bribery. I recall the negotiations required to get a catering truck with rather a lot of booze and several cars with the same from Western Sahara into the totally dry Mauritania. A few hours in it became an 'ok, how much?' Situation
  • Good article from Alastair and on the money throughout.

    I've not had chance to view the Watson video yet but from the comments I've seen quoted, I have to ask the question what are the chances of him defecting? It doesn't sound to me as if he's said anything that either implicitly or explicitly rules it out, depending on how this all develops. Obviously, he won't be MP Number Nine. But might he be Thirty Nine? Or Eighty Nine?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Have the gang of three left Con yet? :D

    11am was mooted earlier in the thread. Best grab an extra Hobnob with your elevenses cuppa.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    There's no way the UK government would make someone stateless, it's against international treaties. There's also (correctly IMO) an automatic right of appeal, which amounts to a judicial review of the Home Secretary's decision.

    Meanwhile, Diane makes herself and her party seem more interested in the rights of terrorists and terrorist sympathisers, than in the right of her countrymen and women to be safe from terrorism.
    Exactly. Labour are jumping feet first into Javid’s trap.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbs
    Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.
    Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?

    You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
    With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs
    In a Brexit election, maybe.

    But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.

    The Tories will take that seat from her.
    Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.
    Well, err, the Remainer LibDems didn’t take it in 2017.

    And they couldn’t even re-take wafer-thin Cambridge.

    Remember the ex LibDem MP for Cambridge was popular -- he still lost by a whopping amount.

    I think if the election is held this year and is about Brexit, then Allen has a chance (maybe 50:50)

    If the election is in 2020 or after, I think Allen loses.
    Cambridge was a tuition fees loss. I can see South Cambs voting liberal-centrist in exactly the way that OxWAb does.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,012
    edited February 2019
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
    People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.

    Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.

    Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.

    Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
    Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.

    I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
    There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.
    She's a pretty unappealing type of self unaware, immature teenager. In a sense that's more reason that no attention should be paid to grandstanding politicians & foaming Mail readers, Begum hardly appears to have the self preservation instincts of the Great Auk (though surviving 4 years with ISIS suggests some skills in that area).
    The Bulger killers and the chap on trial for the events on Bute were teenagers - no sign of any sympathy for them.

    But the SNP do love a terrorist..
    You've (probably inadvertently) not noticed that they were/are on trial for what they were accused of.

    Since you've brought the Bute murder up, interesting that when it was first announced how many supporters of a certain club leapt on to social media to make a connection with the Syrian refugees on Bute. Imagine their disappointment..
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    The press are getting this wrong. The law doesn't generally allow for people being deprived of UK citizenship because they could apply for other citizenship. That's the case only if they are British by naturalisation. And in that case there is also a stricter criterion to be met: "conducive to the public good because the person, while having that citizenship status, has conducted him or herself in a manner which is seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, any of the Islands, or any British overseas territory".

    This case is troubling. I personally agree with the Sun and the gammon consensus that she deserves to rot. But that is one of the (many) reasons that I am not fit to be the Home Secretary. Javed is the Home Secretary and yet appears to be no better suited to the role than me. In fact he is increasingly looking like the pits. Not only is he acting in a cheap tabloid manner to impress cheap tabloid people, he is quite obviously doing so purely in order to further his Tory leadership ambitions. Not like. Not like one little bit.
    I think it's a bad idea to put such power into the hands of politicians. But I hope the decision will be properly examined at appeal.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
    People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.

    Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.

    Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.

    Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
    Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.

    I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
    There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.
    She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?
    It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.
    Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?
    I might be wrong but I thought if she is British, then so is her child?
  • Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.
    I also think he's entirely correct - but that doesn't mean it doesn't also have a potential core of 20pc of "extreme centrists" (aka "liberal metropolitan elite") who've felt disenfranchised since the referendum/growth of ERG v Corby.

    Part of the reason why Blair and Cameron did so well was by capturing that share of the market and radiating chummy competent blandness. Of course, they only did so by tacking it on to an existing 'wing' of politics to give them a majority, which is where TIG will struggle, even pairing up with the LibDems.
  • TGOHF said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.

    In the long run that might be a mistake.
    One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    I wonder what the EU will make of all the drama in the UK if today’s rumours re Tories joining the IG are true. How can May stand there and say give me this and it will pass the Commons.

    The second EU vote under the guise of a ratification by the public might start to gather momentum .

    True - but amidst all this party swapping, no votes have changed hands over Brexit. Entrenchment lives.
  • When did the convention end that MPs would fight a byelection on joining the Cabinet?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    eek said:

    Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

    Then I saw

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

    and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

    I made that point last night.
    A couple of problems with the law in this case is that it seems only to apply to UK born citizens of immigrant parents, and thus creates a second class of citizens.
    Secondly, it appears to give a fairly arbitrary power of exile exclusively to the Home Secretary. Sure there are limits on that power, and procedures which have to be followed, but it is basically at his/her discretion.

    And in the case of undesirables radicalised at home, it effectively avoids responsibility for a problem created here, and seeks to pass it on to a state (in this case Bangladesh) which has little to do with the whole affair.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I find the reality of

    IanB2 said:

    I think defecting MPs should face by elections.

    My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.

    He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.

    Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.

    Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.

    But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.

    Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.

    Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.

    There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.
    I am generally content that there are no by elections when an MP leaves a party. Again I go back to the principle that we vote for an individual MP not a party. If we insist on by elections then it gives undue power to the parties over the MPs.

    That said I was pleased when Carswell chose to out himself up for re-election when he defected.
    I agree. Though in the case of the current defections there is a case for them calling by elections as a mini referendum on Brexit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    I've got to be honest I don't think the political class have taken Brexit all that well... :D
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    When did the convention end that MPs would fight a byelection on joining the Cabinet?


    Re-Election of Ministers Act 1919
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    I've seen that episode of Game of Thrones... "SHAME !"
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
    People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.

    Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.

    Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.

    Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
    Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.

    I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
    There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.
    She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?
    It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.
    Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?
    I might be wrong but I thought if she is British, then so is her child?
    The child enjoys the citizenship of both parents - though for an Anglo-Dutch child at some stage they would have to choose as the Dutch don’t allow dual citizenship (but Brexit has stimulated a rethink).
  • Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Agreed.. his video the other day was as supportive of the splitters as it could be without offering them his Vistaprint discount code to save on letterheads. As with Clarke, I suspect he'll settle for "fighting from within", but it was definitely playing the "elected deputy" joker card to kick Jezza in the nuts that hard.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    I've got to be honest I don't think the political class have taken Brexit all that well... :D

    Not really any question as to who the establishment is now..
  • Sorry to see these Tory MPs go if they do join the Tiggers as Richard N posted earlier this week, with people like Hammond, Rudd and Clark in the Cabinet and virtually all their party ERG opponents just sat on the same back benches rather than at the helm then I don't consider the Tory party lost to them..... (or me) ... yet.

    The key difference is the hard left HAVE taken over the infrastructure of Labour, the equivalent hasn't happened yet for the Tories but them leaving makes it a little bit easier.

    As long as Ken stays, so do I.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've got to be honest I don't think the political class have taken Brexit all that well... :D

    Not really any question as to who the establishment is now..
    No need for lizard specs anymore, the NWO is laid bare for all to see
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Scott_P said:
    Could Justine Greening lead the Tiggers?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Scott_P said:
    Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Wih Bernie entering the race, I've made another bet - not to back Brnie but to lay Harris. She's clearly behind in the polls to Bernie, and why should she 'burst out' when there is a whole school of fish behind the Bernster. Joe Biden better not endorse her now, mind !
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
    People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.

    Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.

    Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.

    Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
    Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.

    I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
    There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.
    She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?
    It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.
    Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?
    I might be wrong but I thought if she is British, then so is her child?
    Yes but IANAL.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/461318/children_born_outside_the_uk_sept_2015.pdf
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbs
    Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.
    Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?

    You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
    With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs
    In a Brexit election, maybe.

    But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.

    The Tories will take that seat from her.
    Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.
    Well, err, the Remainer LibDems didn’t take it in 2017.

    And they couldn’t even re-take wafer-thin Cambridge.

    Remember the ex LibDem MP for Cambridge was popular -- he still lost by a whopping amount.

    I think if the election is held this year and is about Brexit, then Allen has a chance (maybe 50:50)

    If the election is in 2020 or after, I think Allen loses.
    Cambridge was a tuition fees loss. I can see South Cambs voting liberal-centrist in exactly the way that OxWAb does.
    I think OxWAb has more university votes in the constituency.

    South Cambs only really has Queen Ediths/Trumpington. The centre of gravity of Cambridge University is gradually moving northwards.

    South Cambs is a much tougher nut to crack than OxWab (which the LibDems only intermittently hold).
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.
    I think it's centrists who should be nervous. Centrism is about to be put to the test as an electoral force. If TIG fail, their worldview is going to be totally marginalised in mainstream politics
  • Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
  • Scott_P said:
    Could Justine Greening lead the Tiggers?
    Yep I was wondering about Greening....

  • Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited February 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Could Justine Greening lead the Tiggers?

    LOL! Imagine how furious Chuka would be about that... :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbs
    Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.
    Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?

    You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
    With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs
    In a Brexit election, maybe.

    But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.

    The Tories will take that seat from her.
    Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.
    I think much would turn on the size of the Labour vote. I couldn't see a Conservative polling much under 40%.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    TGOHF said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.

    In the long run that might be a mistake.
    One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?
    Do you think TIG will vote for May's deal?
  • Sorry to see these Tory MPs go if they do join the Tiggers as Richard N posted earlier this week, with people like Hammond, Rudd and Clark in the Cabinet and virtually all their party ERG opponents just sat on the same back benches rather than at the helm then I don't consider the Tory party lost to them..... (or me) ... yet.

    The key difference is the hard left HAVE taken over the infrastructure of Labour, the equivalent hasn't happened yet for the Tories but them leaving makes it a little bit easier.

    As long as Ken stays, so do I.

    Testify.

    Plus our votes could be crucial in the next leadership contest.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    That would be quite a coup as DG has been the most effective Leader of the Opposition of the past 20 years.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.
    You sound as rattled as Owen Jones!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.
    Bercow will be smiling !
  • TGOHF said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.

    In the long run that might be a mistake.
    One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?
    Do you think TIG will vote for May's deal?
    If the ultimate choice was May's deal or No-deal then yes. But not until that do-or-die moment.
  • TGOHF said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.

    In the long run that might be a mistake.
    One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?
    Do you think TIG will vote for May's deal?
    Nope, not without a referendum.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    Hugh Bennett
    @HughRBennett
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes

    Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th

    Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.
    Bercow will be smiling !
    Speaker B would find a way to insert himself into the center of the drama I'm sure.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
    Yep, i've always thought of him as an utter piece of ****, but maybe he's changed.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Not sure Grieve will jump, he will find it much harder to forge consensus for his meddling outside the big tent
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    I voted for Tom.


  • Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.
    It would but the timing sounds unlikely. I doubt even defecting Tories would want to disrupt PMQs and if they wait till afterwards, there is a risk one of the PM's answers will make them reconsider.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    Funny how it's only when 7 Labour MPs leave the party that all of sudden Labour decide that defections need to be another route to recall (which I think is a bad idea generally anyway).

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1098004663096541184
    You only have to ask yourself how many parties would demand that a defector too them immediately stands for election. The answer is going to be very close to zero.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Boles

    The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour
  • Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.
    It would but the timing sounds unlikely. I doubt even defecting Tories would want to disrupt PMQs and if they wait till afterwards, there is a risk one of the PM's answers will make them reconsider.
    Unless one of them expects to be called. Then they could ask a theatrical question then announce after PMQs. Like JRM did with his no confidence letter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.

    Dont expect LFI to condemn it though

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1097888710492897280
  • kinabalu said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
    Some might say weeping and wailing about hardship while voting in the policies that cause it is very much a certain kind of proper Conservative.
  • If this is just a ruse to get the viewing figures for PMQs up, I'll be annoyed. #defectionwatch
  • IanB2 said:

    Boles

    The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour

    That's true to an extent. However, important as an issue as Brexit is, it is not the only one and will still pass. It is not defining the party in existential terms other than for a few members. Labour's splits run deeper.
  • IanB2 said:

    Boles

    The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour

    I don't get that sense from him. Prefers to be in the tent I think
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Two thirds of all MPs don't want to Leave the EU

    Two thirds of Labour MPs don't want Corbyn as leader.

    Parliamentary democracy rules OK!

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
    ... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited February 2019
    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,012
    edited February 2019

    This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.

    Dont expect LFI to condemn it though

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1097888710492897280

    Bower is a *****. Unfortunately so is Bastani which blunts the effect somewhat.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Roger said:

    Two thirds of all MPs don't want to Leave the EU



    Yet they gave people a "once in a lifetime" referendum and then enacted Article 50...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Boles

    The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour

    That's true to an extent. However, important as an issue as Brexit is, it is not the only one and will still pass. It is not defining the party in existential terms other than for a few members. Labour's splits run deeper.
    You must mix in different circles. I know lots of them for whom Brexit is an obsession. cf. ConHome

    Edit/ and, to the point, the only test by which they judge fellow tories
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.
    It would but the timing sounds unlikely. I doubt even defecting Tories would want to disrupt PMQs and if they wait till afterwards, there is a risk one of the PM's answers will make them reconsider.
    Unless one of them expects to be called. Then they could ask a theatrical question then announce after PMQs. Like JRM did with his no confidence letter.
    That’s how I’d expect them to do it. The letters get sent to the PM at midday when they know she won’t be able to read them, and someone gives Bercow a nudge to call one of them just after Corbyn’s had his questions.
  • If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

    It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

    Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.
  • kinabalu said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
    The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited February 2019

    If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

    It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

    Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.

    If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.

    A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM! :open_mouth:
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.
    :+1:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
    ... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.
    Ah yes, ‘Nick’. I think he’s still on trial with reporting restrictions in place, as very little is being said about it. Will be a big story one day in the next few weeks, with potential for a lot of people to get dragged into it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    kinabalu said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
    The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group
    TIG is quite obviously a remain party
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
    ... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.
    Ah yes, ‘Nick’. I think he’s still on trial with reporting restrictions in place, as very little is being said about it. Will be a big story one day in the next few weeks, with potential for a lot of people to get dragged into it.
    There was a bit in the paper yesterday actually.

    "Nick" will stand trial in May and Harvey Proctor will be called as witness...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    GIN1138 said:

    If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

    It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

    Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.

    If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.

    A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM! :open_mouth:
    Dislike of those two goes wide
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

    It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

    Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.

    If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.

    A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM! :open_mouth:
    A hardcore Leaver is going to be next leader regardless so I don’t think it’s going to make much difference there .
  • _Anazina_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

    Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
    With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold
    Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.
    Until the LDs announce they aren't standing, I don't believe it.
  • Phillip Lee on Sky just now - 'I am not leaving the party'
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    If you are a non-Corbynite Labour supporter or a Remainer Tory, by far your best bet is to stay in your party. The pendulum always swings back.

    It swung back after Foot. It swung back after IDS.

    The TIG only makes sense as a reaction to a very special set of circumstances. It only makes sense as a Remain party for preventing Brexit. It loses all relevance after Brexit.

    It only makes sense to join it if the EU is absolutely everything to you. This is not a large constituency of people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
    ... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.
    Ah yes, ‘Nick’. I think he’s still on trial with reporting restrictions in place, as very little is being said about it. Will be a big story one day in the next few weeks, with potential for a lot of people to get dragged into it.
    There was a bit in the paper yesterday actually.

    "Nick" will stand trial in May and Harvey Proctor will be called as witness...
    Ah okay, thanks. To say it’s potentially an explosive trial is something of an understatement!
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here's a left-field thought.

    Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.


    No chance.

    I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.
    I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.
    Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.
    Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!
    Yep, i've always thought of him as an utter piece of ****, but maybe he's changed.
    Everything is relative. Given the reported change in the Labour environment he could have stayed the same, but just been left behind as the Corbynites upped the ante.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

    It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

    Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.

    If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.

    A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM! :open_mouth:
    A hardcore Leaver is going to be next leader regardless so I don’t think it’s going to make much difference there .
    I don't know about that. At the moment it would be difficult for someone like Boris to get to the final two membership vote. Right now you'd favour a final two of Hunt and Javid etc.

    If all the hardcore remainers go then all bets are off as to who would be in the final two...
  • DonTsInferno_DonTsInferno_ Posts: 108
    edited February 2019

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022

    Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.

    You can smell the fear....
    I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.
    :+1:
    They stand united against both the biggest labour vote of the 21st C & the biggest democratic vote ever, while seemingly ok with the biggest horror of the 21st C
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    RoyalBlue said:

    So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

    See, a Tory Corbynista
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Royal Blue

    Frit.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

    That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

    She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

    Not a proper Conservative.
    The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group
    TIG is quite obviously a remain party
    Indeed that is its great strength
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Phillip Lee on Sky just now - 'I am not leaving the party'

    Yet? ;)
This discussion has been closed.