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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Excellent header Alastair. One of your best
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,082
    ydoethur said:

    http://www.twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1098001894696460291
    It's an interesting question. But if we're talking about manipulative fraudsters who waste people's time, I would suggest the verb should be to do a 'Novaro Media.'

    These guys really are rattled.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926
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    F1: Williams are at testing. Unsure who's driving.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sandpit said:

    tim has become most amusing when he is attacking his own party...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    ydoethur said:

    http://www.twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1098001894696460291
    It's an interesting question. But if we're talking about manipulative fraudsters who waste people's time, I would suggest the verb should be to do a 'Novaro Media.'

    These guys really are rattled.
    Indeed. Corbyn himself was elected three times on Tony Blair's manifesto, after all.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951
    Surely Wollaston should join the Tiggers, she's barely a Tory
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    edited February 2019

    Good morning, everyone.

    And then there were eight. Mildly surprised the newest Tigger didn't announce it around 5.30pm to get on the early evening news too, but there we are. Maybe she was genuinely weighing it up and just made the move when she knew what it was.

    It came through last night. My guess is that she got such a deluge of Labour people telling her where to go yesterday, that she decided she may as well.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    There's no way the UK government would make someone stateless, it's against international treaties. There's also (correctly IMO) an automatic right of appeal, which amounts to a judicial review of the Home Secretary's decision.

    Meanwhile, Diane makes herself and her party seem more interested in the rights of terrorists and terrorist sympathisers, than in the right of her countrymen and women to be safe from terrorism.
    Diane never gets anything right. IF Javid proves to have overstepped the mark then the law will be changed. This woman laid her bed, she can lie in it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    Sandpit said:

    Diane makes herself and her party seem more interested in the rights of terrorists and terrorist sympathisers, than in the right of her countrymen and women to be safe from terrorism.

    Hardly a first offence, is it?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    Pulpstar said:

    Javid up to over 41000 likes. Surely he will launch a leadership bid soon !

    Pulpstar said:

    Javid up to over 41000 likes. Surely he will launch a leadership bid soon !

    Jarvis is about as inspiring as nettle soup, but at least he's competent.
    Obviously well placed to deal with Islamic terrorists though at either home or PM. The big security threat of our generation.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926

    F1: Williams are at testing. Unsure who's driving.

    They said they don't reckon they'll be out before lunch, but their car arrived at the circuit overnight. I really hope it was simply a production delay and they don't have any more problems with the car.
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    Scott_P said:
    It IS a loony bin and increasingly so. Those of us who aren't suffering the black sleep of the Kali Ma have two choices - stay and fight, or flounce off and enable the Tories.

    The insanity of a Labour committee, a LABOUR committee hiring taxis to scuttle round a city and judge fit the membership of Twatton is all the proof you need as to how mad things are
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_P said:
    They should do it during PMQs. We need someone to actually cross the floor.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951
    Constituents can sign a recall. Is Onasunyas up yet. I think Labour probably wouldn't want to do this is Shoreditch
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    http://www.twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1098001894696460291
    It's an interesting question. But if we're talking about manipulative fraudsters who waste people's time, I would suggest the verb should be to do a 'Novaro Media.'

    These guys really are rattled.
    Indeed. Corbyn himself was elected three times on Tony Blair's manifesto, after all.
    You make a good point. Corbyn's disloyalty to past leaderships was always likely to be revisited. This could be a rocky time for Jeremy. No one likes a hypocrite for long

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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Great news if it’s true at least it will stop the Tories from looking so smug over the Labour resignations .I never vote Tory but on the EU I’m on the same page as the trio.
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    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    There is a beautiful contradiction here.

    If Tories defect, a VONC is much more likely to succeed.

    BUT

    The independent MPs need time before a GE to establish themselves to stand a chance of reelection. So a GE is less likely.

    The TiggazWithAtitudes are irrelevant in any post GE scenario as they are all gong to be out on their arses.
    Next GE in 2020. Plenty of time to make hay.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951
    Meeks reconsiders his Tigger membership application :D
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    They should do it during PMQs. We need someone to actually cross the floor.
    Who was the last person to actually do that in the Commons?

    IMO it's silly of Conservatives to defect before Brexit plays out, but it's difficult to criticise someone who takes that decision with the knowledge of the likely consequences for their own Parliamentary career. Soubry especially has next to nothing in common with any of the other defectors except her opposition to leaving the EU, although the other two probably count as dripping wet almost-Lib-Dems.
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    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Great news if it’s true at least it will stop the Tories from looking so smug over the Labour resignations .I never vote Tory but on the EU I’m on the same page as the trio.
    It is good news. It means that any slight chance any of them had of being re-elected at the next GE has gone completely.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    I really don't know enough modern history - Ramsay Macdonald is Labour's greatest villain?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Woolaston will be like 'it's been a tough decision to leave the.. . What party was I again?'
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    Pulpstar said:

    Constituents can sign a recall. Is Onasunyas up yet. I think Labour probably wouldn't want to do this is Shoreditch
    I don't think they are able to.until her appeal has been heard.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited February 2019
    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Great news if it’s true at least it will stop the Tories from looking so smug over the Labour resignations
    Yes indeed. Both sides need rattling and understandably the Tories will get complacent without any defections of their own.

    Perhaps May and Corbyn might share a decaff tea together after PMQs to moan about their backbenchers.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    kle4 said:

    I really don't know enough modern history - Ramsay Macdonald is Labour's greatest villain?

    He agreed to a major cut in welfare payments to balance the budget, causing a split in the Labour Party. They were forced to resign as the governing party.

    He then compounded matters by agreeing to lead a government of national unity dominated by the Conservatives in 1931. At the 1931 general election, only 52 Labour MPs survived, all bar one of the Shadow Cabinet losing their seats.

    As a result, although he was Labour's first Prime Minister and unlike the others embodied their meritocratic beliefs, he became hated as a traitor.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    IanB2 said:

    I don’t know whether they’ve “removed” references to the Conservative Party, but it’s true they’re not there:

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1098009680482316293?s=21

    Soubry dropped hers yesterday. Apparently. Also look at their recent RTs. I reckon they are the two.
    That looks like fake news. Even last year her profile didn’t mention her party.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20181220005810/Twitter.com/anna_soubry
    At one point Soubry’s profile definitely contained the phrase “lifelong one nation Tory” - I remember it distinctly.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926
    Pulpstar said:

    Constituents can sign a recall. Is Onasunyas up yet. I think Labour probably wouldn't want to do this is Shoreditch
    The recall requires the MP to be be convicted of a crime or suspended from Parliament, it got watered down from the original proposal to allow it at any time.

    Ms Onasanya's recall petition hasn't been sent out yet, as she's appealing her conviction and the legal process has to be completed first. She could well be back in the Commons in a few weeks having served her sentence. She's also facing being struck off as a solicitor, so the appeal is rather important to her.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Soubry is going to end up the Kate Hoey of the Tiggers (not on brexit, obviously)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    _Anazina_ said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.
    Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?
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    DavidL said:
    Has anyone ever seen Peston and Rogerdamus in the same room?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,008
    Sandpit said:

    F1: Williams are at testing. Unsure who's driving.

    They said they don't reckon they'll be out before lunch, but their car arrived at the circuit overnight. I really hope it was simply a production delay and they don't have any more problems with the car.
    Rumour has it that they have aero-design issues and may be 2 seconds slower than the rest of the pack.
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    Roger said:
    The last thing any independents want is a GE. They need 'years' to get a new infrastructure and activists in place to have any hope of keeping seats.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    They should do it during PMQs. We need someone to actually cross the floor.
    They've got nowhere to go!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    RobD said:

    brendan16 said:

    More to do with the last topic really....

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1097899807300046849

    Bernie gets it, my backing for next president, very important for any candidate. A little line borrowed from Labour as well there, the special relationship is going well.

    No kind of chant or song yet though, very disappointing...

    Why is a Labour MP endorsing a Democratic primary candidate?

    For the many - not the few. Is Bernie stealing Jeremy's slogans?
    This is one of the effects of social media: Politics is now global, and political people follow other countries' politics.
    Should they though?
    No reason they cannot but I do find people are a bit quick to leap into full on support of a foreign party or issue without necessarily being aware of local differences. By which I mean even if two parties have the sane name are allied, someone probably needs to do morexresesrch before acting like the centre right party if one is directly equivalent to the centre right party of another.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Looks like Allen, Woollaston and the Gin princess will all get “selected” by Bercow for PMQs then.

    Hubble , bubble....
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Great news if it’s true at least it will stop the Tories from looking so smug over the Labour resignations .I never vote Tory but on the EU I’m on the same page as the trio.
    It is good news. It means that any slight chance any of them had of being re-elected at the next GE has gone completely.
    Wollaston and Allen are plausibly safer as independents than Tories. South Cambs DC has swung strongly to the Lib Dems and Totnes town (if not country) is hardly in sympathy with May’s red-line Brexit.
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    nico67 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    Great news if it’s true at least it will stop the Tories from looking so smug over the Labour resignations .I never vote Tory but on the EU I’m on the same page as the trio.
    It is good news. It means that any slight chance any of them had of being re-elected at the next GE has gone completely.
    Weren’t they all facing deselection anyway by friend Nigel’s entryists? Avoiding that humiliation while telling the swivel-eyed brigade where to stick it sounds like a plan.
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    ydoethur said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.
    Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?
    It would be much better for the Government to step up and take responsibility for one if it's citizens and ensure there is a proper judicial solution to the issue. Either she had broken the law in which case she should be punished or she has not in which case we should not be allowing a politician to punish her without due procedure.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,105

    IanB2 said:

    I don’t know whether they’ve “removed” references to the Conservative Party, but it’s true they’re not there:

    https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1098009680482316293?s=21

    Soubry dropped hers yesterday. Apparently. Also look at their recent RTs. I reckon they are the two.
    That looks like fake news. Even last year her profile didn’t mention her party.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20181220005810/Twitter.com/anna_soubry
    At one point Soubry’s profile definitely contained the phrase “lifelong one nation Tory” - I remember it distinctly.
    Yes it looks like she changed it in 2017. I guess that phrase was to push back against people saying she should quit the party.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    Roger said:
    The last thing any independents want is a GE. They need 'years' to get a new infrastructure and activists in place to have any hope of keeping seats.
    Exactly! You'd expect Peston might have worked that out. Spending too long on his hair I suspect
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited February 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    The point is, he isn't. He believes she is entitled to Bangladeshi citizenship so losing her British nationality would not leave her stateless.

    Now while I can imagine that the Bangladeshis will not be thrilled with this interepretation of their nationality requirements, on the face of it he has a reasonable argument with he mother.

    That does however leave the question of the child's nationality unanswered and I think that is where a tribunal may overrule him.

    Both of those are separate from the question of whether it is appropriate.

    And an admirer of Erich Honecker has no business whatsoever in suggesting anyone else has failed to meet security obligations to the international community.
    Surely as the child was born at a time the mother was still British, he/she remains British? As far as I know the baby has not been stripped of citizenship, and a child born abroad to a British mother who was born in the UK is British.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Williams are at testing. Unsure who's driving.

    They said they don't reckon they'll be out before lunch, but their car arrived at the circuit overnight. I really hope it was simply a production delay and they don't have any more problems with the car.
    Rumour has it that they have aero-design issues and may be 2 seconds slower than the rest of the pack.
    Are we talking Williams or Corbyn?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors.

    They left months ago. They appear to be in the wrong party anyway.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,008
    Roger said:
    An election would be near if anyone actually wanted it. As an early election requires everyone to actually want it I suspect it's not that close at all.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    They should do it during PMQs. We need someone to actually cross the floor.
    Yes! High drama indeed. Someone wanted to do that a local council meeting but it wouldn't have been official without the forms being signed, which would have spoiled the surprise
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Williams are at testing. Unsure who's driving.

    They said they don't reckon they'll be out before lunch, but their car arrived at the circuit overnight. I really hope it was simply a production delay and they don't have any more problems with the car.
    Rumour has it that they have aero-design issues and may be 2 seconds slower than the rest of the pack.
    Really hope that's not the case, I guess we'll find out in Australia in three weeks' time.

    Paddy Lowe is very much in the firing line if the car is trundling round at the back again, they all but abandoned the old one in about June last year to ensure they got the '19 car right. Claire Williams probably needs to fall on her sword as well, or at least concentrate on the marketing side and leave someone else to run the team.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095
    edited February 2019
    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,348

    DavidL said:
    Has anyone ever seen Peston and Rogerdamus in the same room?
    Roger is extremely knowledgeable about films. Peston's area of expertise remains more of a mystery.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    TOPPING said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?
    People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.

    Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.

    Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.

    Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
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    Mr. Pioneers, stay and fight?

    How's that worked so far?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926

    DavidL said:
    Has anyone ever seen Peston and Rogerdamus in the same room?
    Peston is the only person talking about a quartet when everyone else only has three names in the hat. So who's the fourth one?
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    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:
    Has anyone ever seen Peston and Rogerdamus in the same room?
    Peston is the only person talking about a quartet when everyone else only has three names in the hat. So who's the fourth one?
    I assume he might be referring to the Baroness mentioned earlier.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week

    I wonder who the fourth would be? Phillip Lee?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095
    Scott_P said:
    It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONC
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Flashman,

    "I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors."

    Mr Eagles with his pig-dog traitor accusations?
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    Scott_P said:
    So they are going to force a revocation then.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:
    Has anyone ever seen Peston and Rogerdamus in the same room?
    Peston is the only person talking about a quartet when everyone else only has three names in the hat. So who's the fourth one?
    Sandbach and Grieve would be possible. TSE suggested Phillip Lee.

    Or maybe Theresa May has had enough of this s—t and is jumping ship...
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONC
    After which perhaps the TIGgers will agree to support a Labour govt in exchange for a 2nd referendum
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Williams are at testing. Unsure who's driving.

    They said they don't reckon they'll be out before lunch, but their car arrived at the circuit overnight. I really hope it was simply a production delay and they don't have any more problems with the car.
    Rumour has it that they have aero-design issues and may be 2 seconds slower than the rest of the pack.
    Really hope that's not the case, I guess we'll find out in Australia in three weeks' time.

    Paddy Lowe is very much in the firing line if the car is trundling round at the back again, they all but abandoned the old one in about June last year to ensure they got the '19 car right. Claire Williams probably needs to fall on her sword as well, or at least concentrate on the marketing side and leave someone else to run the team.
    Williams have been shit for years, I stopped being disappointed by their incompetence a while back.

    They lucked into having the best engine by far at the start of the hybrid era, which masked a lot of their problems and made them look a lot better than they actually were for a season or two, but their slide back through the pack in subsequent years reflects in part the fact the other engine manufacturers have slowly got their game together but mainly that they can't do aero and haven't done it well in a while now.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    ydoethur said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.
    Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?
    It would be much better for the Government to step up and take responsibility for one if it's citizens and ensure there is a proper judicial solution to the issue. Either she had broken the law in which case she should be punished or she has not in which case we should not be allowing a politician to punish her without due procedure.
    There is a procedure, with right of appeal, and if he followed the rules his action would be legal, the procedure apparently allows for punishment without needing to convict her of anything. So due procedure is not the issue.

    People keep essentially arguing it's wrong for him to have the power at all. I can get down with that, I don't think it's great either and it seems like a very broad piece of legislation. But it is not a new power (The issue of interpreting her citizenship was raised as new though I don't know if that is so) and the suggestion it's egregiously bad doesn't therefore hold up for me, nor, until the appeal, do the suggestions Javid has definitely done something procedurally wrong.

    However if someone thinks it wrong regardless of if the procedure and law were followed that seems a consistent approach.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    eek said:

    Roger said:
    An election would be near if anyone actually wanted it. As an early election requires everyone to actually want it I suspect it's not that close at all.
    It's in no one's interest. If the TIGs get somewhere close to 15 they not only have more clout than the DUP but more importantly the power to emasculate both May and Corbyn. An appealing thought
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,926
    Scott_P said:
    LOL. They still seem wedded to this notion that they can keep voting against what they don't want to happen, without replacing it with something substantive.

    If we are to avoid leaving with no deal, they Parliament needs either to ratify a deal or pass whatever is required to revoke the A50 notification. If they can't do either, then we leave with no deal on 29th March.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    HYUFD said:

    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week

    It isn’t a party though
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    ydoethur said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...

    Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.
    Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?
    It would be much better for the Government to step up and take responsibility for one if it's citizens and ensure there is a proper judicial solution to the issue. Either she had broken the law in which case she should be punished or she has not in which case we should not be allowing a politician to punish her without due procedure.
    Since Isis crimes were predominantly committed in Iraq and Syria, isn’t it up to those governments to bring her to justice?

    Where is it shown that Javid has not followed due process? He has made a decision - which on the face of it does not appear unreasonable - and sent her parents the notice of that decision along with the forms to appeal it and guidance notes to making that appeal.

    It is possible the Immigration Tribunal will over rule him - but that’s the process and it’s being followed.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL. They still seem wedded to this notion that they can keep voting against what they don't want to happen, without replacing it with something substantive.

    If we are to avoid leaving with no deal, they Parliament needs either to ratify a deal or pass whatever is required to revoke the A50 notification. If they can't do either, then we leave with no deal on 29th March.
    By "we", as usual you mean us. Not you.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    HYUFD said:

    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week

    It isn’t a party though
    If their numbers continue to grow they will be forced to appoint a leader to keep things manageable.
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    On the issue of a GE.

    If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?

    Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONC
    After which perhaps the TIGgers will agree to support a Labour govt in exchange for a 2nd referendum
    That will certainly be likely.

    The defection of 4 Tory MPs also means May lacks an official majority even with the DUP as you need 326 MPs and she will only have 324. However she will still have a working majority as long as Sinn Fein do not take their seats
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Roger said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:
    An election would be near if anyone actually wanted it. As an early election requires everyone to actually want it I suspect it's not that close at all.
    It's in no one's interest. If the TIGs get somewhere close to 15 they not only have more clout than the DUP but more importantly the power to emasculate both May and Corbyn. An appealing thought
    Indeed. Both deserve herculean amounts of shit. Hopefully something good comes out of this.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Excellent thread, and a good point on Ann Coffey. So far as I can tell, she is the only one of the Labour MPs to quit so far to have definitely jumped without being pushed (deselection threats, votes of no confidence etc). Possibly Joan Ryan is the second.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,861

    Scott_P said:
    So they are going to force a revocation then.
    The next round of EU elections would be fun.
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    Sandpit said:

    tim has become most amusing when he is attacking his own party...
    Yep.
    Amazing how unfunny he becomes when he's attacking one's own party.
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    CD13 said:

    Mr Flashman,

    "I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors."

    Mr Eagles with his pig-dog traitor accusations?

    A stressful day for Theresa May's PMQ jokes rewrite team.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week

    I wonder who the fourth would be? Phillip Lee?
    Lee is a good guess or Bob Neil
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,016
    kle4 said:

    I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors.

    CarlottaV will find a poll that proves its good for May within 8 seconds.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    HYUFD said:

    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week

    It isn’t a party though
    If their numbers continue to grow they will be forced to appoint a leader to keep things manageable.
    It will be an interesting moment. The current tiggers seem clear that their anti Tory credentials remain as high as ever. Can they work with the incomes on more than brexit?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    edited February 2019
    Looking at the Act, some of the press coverage is a bit muddled. The Guardian thinks citizenship can be removed on the basis of “reasonable grounds for believing that the person is able, under the law of a country or territory outside the United Kingdom, to become a national of such a country or territory”. But that clearly applies only to someone who is naturalised British, not someone British-born. She has to have dual nationality already (as someone is quoted as saying elsewhere in the same article).

    Also the Act stipulates that the person should be given written notice before the order is made. Apparently all that has been done here is that her mother was written to and asked to pass the information on.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    On the issue of a GE.

    If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?

    Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.

    'Send for Corbyn' - he has 15 days too get a QS through if not its election time. I'm not sure who is PM I this circumstance?
    Not before Brexit basically
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095

    HYUFD said:

    Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week

    It isn’t a party though
    This is coordinated, Soubry took minutes at Umunna's meetings, they will almost certainly all be voting the same way in the Commons and certainly on Brexit. Now they are in double figures they will become SDP2 soon enough I expect
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    I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.

    Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:
    Has anyone ever seen Peston and Rogerdamus in the same room?
    Peston is the only person talking about a quartet when everyone else only has three names in the hat. So who's the fourth one?
    I assume he might be referring to the Baroness mentioned earlier.
    or Boles
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONC
    After which perhaps the TIGgers will agree to support a Labour govt in exchange for a 2nd referendum
    That will certainly be likely.

    The defection of 4 Tory MPs also means May lacks an official majority even with the DUP as you need 326 MPs and she will only have 324. However she will still have a working majority as long as Sinn Fein do not take their seats
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONC
    After which perhaps the TIGgers will agree to support a Labour govt in exchange for a 2nd referendum
    That will certainly be likely.

    The defection of 4 Tory MPs also means May lacks an official majority even with the DUP as you need 326 MPs and she will only have 324. However she will still have a working majority as long as Sinn Fein do not take their seats
    Well technically May already lacks a majority - the government is not a coalition.
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