politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn
I am disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together for the Labour policies that inspired millions at the last election and saw us increase our vote by the largest share since 1945.
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(I assume it’s Meeks given the twitter symbol!)
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1098045968430309382
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Can't really see the members or the leadership being up for that option, if Labour can't form the government then they would have to back the Conservatives, abstain to let one of the big two in or we would be into another general election.
Also I can't see how suddenly installing someone else as PM right after the election could be particularly justified, someone who nobody would have voted for to become PM. Without perhaps another election.
I don't know how it usually works but I assume if nobody can get a majority or pass a queens speech then we just go straight (after couple of weeks to try to pass the speech?) into another general election campaign?
Labour has deep pockets and lots of members, a war of attrition, which I imagine two quick elections would be, suits Labour a lot more than other parties. Also the election rules on fair coverage being in place for an extended time would be a huge boost.
Edit: I do like a good election as well, two in a row...
https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1097899807300046849
Bernie gets it, my backing for next president, very important for any candidate. A little line borrowed from Labour as well there, the special relationship is going well.
No kind of chant or song yet though, very disappointing...
https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1098009680482316293?s=21
https://annasoubry.org.uk/
'Anna Soubry
Conservative MP for Broxtowe
Working hard to secure a better future for Broxtowe.'
Amber Rudd doesn't mention she is a Conservative MP on her twitter profile either.
https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR
Nor does the current Home Secretary!
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid
Mrs May just says she is Conservative leader.
So read into that what you like!
*Whilst actually being teetotal, which is probably for the best considering.
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet
https://twitter.com/theresa_may
For the many - not the few. Is Bernie stealing Jeremy's slogans?
Corbyn learned from Bernie:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/11/bernie-sanders-jeremy-corbyn-labour-for-the-many
Admittedly that was after they had already been selected by their parties and were going for president. Same principle just a stage further away although I guess that crosses lines within the Democrats or Republicans rather than across the parties and you would associate Labour-Democrats and Conservative-Republicans to an extent..
Although I tend to think it is a bit more to the right over there and more Conservatives would be Democrats.
You also had Momentum tweet support for Bernie as well and a nice reply from DSA (Democratic Socialists of America). Momentum got some help from the Bernie wing pre election, you also had Sanders over here (for other reasons) and he made some supportive statements pre election. I don't think there is anything official at the top level but just significant overlaps and then lots of connections going lower down the chain.
Bernie may well have borrowed that phrase directly but we've had plenty coming the other way as well.
As long as they don't actually slag off the other Democrats it's probably fine, I'd imagine support for Bernie is quite strong among those on the left of the party.
Edit: Is this a newer development politicians taking a position in other countries domestic elections?
In 1st world 'allies' anyway.
Feels like it was less common but between the enthusiasm to comment on American politics and Trump's obsession with the London Mayor, the Italy spat with France etc.
"Each email someone gets from some arrogant Brit telling us why to not vote for George Bush is going to backfire, you stupid, yellow-toothed pansies," read one reply.
"If you want to have a meaningful election in your crappy little island full yellow teeth, then maybe you should try not to sell your sovereignty out to Brussels."
"Real Americans aren't interested in your pansy-ass, tea-sipping opinions," read another.
But Mr Katz denies the experiment backfired.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3981823.stm
Joan Ryan Gone - Palestine Lives (plus Palestine flag)
I hope they keep the receipt.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24772/anna_soubry/broxtowe/votes
Some highlights:
Generally voted against laws to promote equality and human rights
Consistently voted for use of UK military forces in combat operations overseas
Generally voted against a right to remain for EU nationals already in living in the UK
Almost always voted for reducing housing benefit for social tenants deemed to have excess bedrooms (which Labour describe as the "bedroom tax")
Consistently voted against raising welfare benefits at least in line with prices
Consistently voted for a stricter asylum system
Generally voted against measures to prevent climate change
Almost always voted against greater public control of bus services
Consistently voted for phasing out secure tenancies for life
A veritable 'nest of singing birds'!
Without a formal party to stand under, they’ll have no right to Short Money for the next Parliament, no common manifesto to stand on, no central pot of election spending and very limited airtime during the election period.
As others noted yesterday, their abstaining a vote of confidence will have them labelled by Labour as Tories’ little helpers, but conversely if they get a handful of Conservative defections they could have the numbers to bring down the government and force the election at a time of their choosing. Fun times ahead.
A bit of over-analysis going on I suspect - and in Soubry's case, outside the LosersVote she appears to have very little in common with the TIG8
Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston, on the other hand, are definitely candidates to leave. They were on defection watch to the LDs before all this TIG stuff started, and there’s no reason to think they might not resign the whip.
If Tories defect, a VONC is much more likely to succeed.
BUT
The independent MPs need time before a GE to establish themselves to stand a chance of reelection. So a GE is less likely.
Labour 14
Lib Dem 1
Tories (and all other parties) 0 They're obsessed. It would be wonderful to think that the end-point for the Labour Party would be as one of these shit little Marxist campaign groups that goes on these Stop the War-type demos and could be safely ignored. Sadly, I don't think we're going to be that lucky.
I mean, it's not like MPs are important to getting power or anything.....
It's not in the interest of any defectors to TIG (from either side) to permit an early election, and besides none of them will want to do anything that looks like it will put Corbyn in power. I'm sure that at least some of the Labour defectors have already gone on the record quite explicitly stating that Corbyn is unfit for office, and I'd be astonished if anybody originally elected as a Conservative was anything other than terrified of the prospect.
I would go as far as to say that, if May can finally corral her own MPs into supporting her on the Deal, she's safe from a revolt by the DUP. The main risk of an early election now has to be from members of the ERG wing pushing the nuclear button, forming their own party, and challenging all-comers to a snap election on the issue of Brexit.
The risk of that? Your guess is as good as mine.
The person who actually sent the Tweet was trolling her about it for hours
https://twitter.com/mina_andreeva/status/1097923630456020994?s=21
1. Whether the alleged British distaste for split parties manifests at the ballot box
2. Whether the defectors have the nerve to establish a rival party that is prepared to fight Labour on its own territory - i.e. can they demonstrate the will to go all out to destroy Labour, and take on all their ex-colleagues in Parliament and the party membership that have stayed loyal to it as a consequence?
I’ve laid him some more.
sane, intelligent and honestother than Corbyn being PM. Such a system has worked in Ireland, in 1948 for example when Richard Mulcahy stood aside in favour of John Costello because certain potential coalition partners had neither forgotten nor forgiven his role in shooting IRA detainees.There are however a number of issues that raises:
1) Since this is about personality, not policy, what role could then be found for Corbyn? He would presumably be the leader of he largest party in Parliament, yet he has been overlooked for PM because he has neither the talent nor the temperament for the role. So would that not apply to any Cabinet role? Or does he become Lord Privy Seal and bore everyone with his Marxist tropes while being kept as far as possible from anything important?
2) who could then stand in as PM? The Shadow Cabinet are a bunch of fifth-rate makewights some of whom actually make Corbyn look like a serious figure. Macdonnell is a serious figure and a significant intellect, but is out for other reasons. Would people actually support Tom Watson, Keri Starmer or Emily Thornberry for PM? Or would the backbenchers come into play? Or even Ian Blackford of the SNP?
In this particular case, therefore, I can't see it. More likely no coalition deal can be agreed and the Tory government stays in office faute de mieux at the whim of the Commons (plus ca change...)!
That's rather different from saying politics has globalised. It still plays as much to its home electorate as it's always done.
“We are doing so because they are coming to the point of tarnishing the actual brand of the party and I want to remain inside a modern, compassionate, inclusive, outward-looking party that’s attractive to the next generation.”
He said a series of senior Conservatives had decided to come forward and say “no, not in our name,” adding that he didn’t want the approach of the ERG to “poison the moderate perspective of the centre-right Conservative party.
He seems to be doubling down, which is brave.
I'll never forget almost dying of laughter reading the responses of Ohio swing voters to the Guardian handwringers in 2004.
It still might happen but I'd be surprised if Anna Soubry did jump. Except for her flounce in the 1980s she's been a member for over 40 years.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098121648497147904?s=21
https://web.archive.org/web/20181220005810/Twitter.com/anna_soubry
I'm no lawyer, but it looks to me as though he's on reasonable grounds. The only two question marks would be (1) whether you have to claim Bangladeshi citizenship to be entitled to it (bearing in mind the law says 'entitled to' not 'in full possession of') and (2) whether possibly if the child is not entitled to any other citizenship he has misapplied the law there by making it stateless.
The question of whether he is right to do so, as compared with the grooming gangs of adult men who also lost their British citizenship, is a rather more complex question. That is where politics comes into it. I have to say I don't feel comfortable with a schoolgirl - even one who's behaved as stupidly as this person - being stripped of British citizenship. But equally, if she were to come back here she should clearly face criminal charges, and if she doesn't that tells me the law is being misinterpreted anyway (what she did in joining a hostile force launching attacks on us was commit clear cut treason).
What I would also add is there is no question of Javid 'acting illegally.' A tribunal may find the law has been incorrectly applied, but that is not the same thing. If it were, all judges who passed sentences struck down on appeal would be acting illegally and have to resign.
Not a cat in Hell's chance of any of that happening, of course.
Now while I can imagine that the Bangladeshis will not be thrilled with this interepretation of their nationality requirements, on the face of it he has a reasonable argument with he mother.
That does however leave the question of the child's nationality unanswered and I think that is where a tribunal may overrule him.
Both of those are separate from the question of whether it is appropriate.
And an admirer of Erich Honecker has no business whatsoever in suggesting anyone else has failed to meet security obligations to the international community.
I'm comfortable if she's stripped of citizenship and refused leave to return, and also if she does, goes on trial and thrown in jail.
I'm much more interested in proper immigration control in the first place and ensuring the integration of communities who might query our values fully into our society.
And then there were eight. Mildly surprised the newest Tigger didn't announce it around 5.30pm to get on the early evening news too, but there we are. Maybe she was genuinely weighing it up and just made the move when she knew what it was.
I'm comfortable if she's stripped of citizenship and refused leave to return, and also if she does, goes on trial and thrown in jail.
I'm much more interested in proper immigration control in the first place and ensuring the integration of communities who might query our values fully into our society.
It's an interesting question. But if we're talking about manipulative fraudsters who waste people's time, I would suggest the verb should be to do a 'Novaro Media.'
Meanwhile, Diane makes herself and her party seem more interested in the rights of terrorists and terrorist sympathisers, than in the right of her countrymen and women to be safe from terrorism.
Sainsbury's-Asda merger in jeopardy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47303166
The Competition Commission looks to have grown a pair at last.