politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

Then I saw

https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

I made that point last night.

It used to be fashionable in Lebanon for well to do pregnant girls to move to the US to have their babies thus gaining US citizenship for the child. Nationality was always an important consideration in the Middle East. Passports (such as Palestinian ones) could become unusable overnight.

Gallowgate said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chris Williamson in full 'listening and understanding' mode:

https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1098140605455233025

Complete whopper him.

If anyone deserves the appellation “traitor” and “coward” it is Corbyn himself, who serially rebelled against the policies of the party under whose banner he was elected and who did not have the courage to form his own party or to stand under the banner of a party whose policies he actually agreed with.

Now, like a parasite, he has taken over and infected a once great party and turned it into a left-wing BNP.

IanB2 said:

GIN1138 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?

It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.

Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.

If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.

A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM!

Dislike of those two goes wide

Indeed. I'm not sure JRM will stand anyway, and Boris isn't going to get past the MPs for 101 well-documented reasons.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

RoyalBlue said:

So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

See, a Tory Corbynista

That is not this conservative's attitude. I am saddened but not vengeful

You'd be a prime recruit

RoyalBlue said:

So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?

Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.

Snap

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/WillardFoxton/status/1098126301104353280

That's not an accurate statement.

The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.

Mr. Sodium, welcome to PB.

_Anazina_ said:

IanB2 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098129345166671872

If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.

With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold

Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.

I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.

Gorgeous George on Sky News talking about wanting to rejoin Labour, and denying that Berger is leaving because of antisemitism.

Sodium said:

Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

Quite what TIG is intended to achieve is one of the great mysteries of our time. Though as a useful by-product Shadsy gave away 6/4 Labour hold Streatham. Not sure if it is still there, or if Ladbrokes has noticed that one of the runners, Chuka, might not come under starter's orders.

Charles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/WillardFoxton/status/1098126301104353280

That's not an accurate statement.

The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.

And if someone like Corbyn were appointing the Home Secretary?

Sodium said:

Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

Welcome to PB and your first post is short and very succinct

Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

OTOH This Begum decision is a bit of a boon to those of us with absolubtely no claim to another nationality (Particularly European) whatsoever as a quid pro quo of sorts for losing our FoM

Charles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/WillardFoxton/status/1098126301104353280

That's not an accurate statement.

The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.

What a touching faith in a Jeremy Corbyn-led administration you have. Even under Blair they threw out an ancient shouty Jew from their conference.

Sandpit said:

Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

Did he say pounds or Shekels?

So it's to be synchronised defecating during PMQs.

O tempera

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

_Anazina_ said:

IanB2 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098129345166671872

If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.

With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold

Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.

I don't think Soubry can hold as an independent, good contest between Labour and Tory official mark candidate. Allen and Wollaston have more chance.

Cant see it myself.

I think all 11 will lose

I hope you got on the 6-4 offered by Ladbrokes for the red army holding Streatham !

Harry Cole
‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.

Sandpit said:

Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

He better have proof

Slackbladder said:

Harry Cole
‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.

While @bigjohnowls and @old_labour wonder what all the fuss is about and wish good riddance to those who have left.

This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

Fysics_Teacher said:

Charles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/WillardFoxton/status/1098126301104353280

That's not an accurate statement.

The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.

And if someone like Corbyn were appointing the Home Secretary?

Or someone on the right deciding every muslim had to sign an oath of allegiance as one UKIP MEP proposed a few years ago. Add on the possibility of having your citizenship stripped and it gets very dangerous indeed. We are back in the mindset of the wars of religion.

FFS, while the Labour Party is busy crippling itself with splits, could the Tories just try to hold it together for 5 minutes?

Sodium said:

eek said:

Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

Then I saw

https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.

Javid is trying to revoke her citizenship but it's doubtful whether he will succeed. Quite a few IS fighters have returned to the UK, so it won't be clear to the courts why she's a special case.

Cyclefree said:

If anyone deserves the appellation “traitor” and “coward” it is Corbyn himself, who serially rebelled against the policies of the party under whose banner he was elected and who did not have the courage to form his own party or to stand under the banner of a party whose policies he actually agreed with.

Now, like a parasite, he has taken over and infected a once great party and turned it into a left-wing BNP.

Steady the buffs!

Sandpit said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sandpit said:

Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

He better have proof

He said that Al Jazeera have a recording of it from yesterday, and that Sky News know about it but won't show it. He sounds like the full Ken Livingstone Experience!

Why on earth would they need to take £1m from Israel?

edmundintokyo said:

This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

BREXIT KAIJU !

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1098167213834543104

Jezza is putting the band back togehter

George = Robbie Williams?

Dear TIG Blair/Campbell AS?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4223091.stm

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/feb/01/advertising.politicsandthemedia

dyedwoolie said:

TGOHF said:

GIN1138 said:

I've got to be honest I don't think the political class have taken Brexit all that well...

Not really any question as to who the establishment is now..

No need for lizard specs anymore, the NWO is laid bare for all to see

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI8AMRbqY6w

https://twitter.com/FlipChartRick/status/1098117132485881856

Some of us on PB.

edmundintokyo said:

This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

Try this one. Sky news
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lrX6ktLg8WQ

Www.Parliamentlive.tv for proceedings in the House of Commons.

Re Javid’s decision, my thoughts FWIW:-

1. Home Secretaries have the power to remove British citizenship provided they act within the law. They do not have complete discretion to do whatever they want.
2. Whether he has acted within the law can be tested in the courts. I would be curious to know how such a case would be funded and how any lawyer acting for her could obtain instructions.
3. Regardless of the legal position, was it wise of him to do so? If his audience is Tory voters and to make Labour seem as if they are on the side of an IS member, probably.
4. But I am not sure that it was wise to do what he did for three reasons:-
(a) we’ve said we won’t do anything to bring her back. Best just leave her in obscurity rather than continue giving the narcissist more publicity. If she did manage to make it back to Britain it would also give us and the security services time to decide how to deal with her on her return. Decisions made in haste often end up being regretted.
(b) it is the Iraqi and Syrian authorities who ought to deal with her and have a first chance at investigating and prosecuting her. Not Britain since any trial here will be practically impossible given the difficulties of getting evidence and witnesses here to therequired standard. But this looks like we’re dumping them with the responsibility.
(c) it looks as if we’re dumping Bangladesh with the reponsibility or possibly Holland. If we do it to other countries, they can do it to us.

Plus - if he has got the law wrong or not exercised his powers correctly he will give IS and their symapthisers a tremendous boost, which is the last thing we need

Better to have ignored her and taken time quietly to think about the best way of handling cases such as this in conjunction with other countries. I would have quietly encouraged in every way possible the authorities there to deal with her under their system of justice. British citizens should not get a free pass from facing the consequences of whatever crimes they may have committed abroad just because they are British, which seems to be the effective default position of many commenting on this case.

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

This all sounds entertainingly theatrical, what would be a good live stream?

Try this one. Sky news
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lrX6ktLg8WQ

Www.Parliamentlive.tv for proceedings in the House of Commons.

Lovely, thanks.

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sandpit said:

Galloway now saying that Israel is funding the breakaway group with a million pounds!

He better have proof

He said that Al Jazeera have a recording of it from yesterday, and that Sky News know about it but won't show it. He sounds like the full Ken Livingstone Experience!

Why on earth would they need to take £1m from Israel?

He will have been talking about this.2 mins 58 seconds in Thats not really possible to extrapolate Israel is funding TIG though

https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley/secret-video-reveals-israeli-plot-take-down-uk-minister

Morning all, an excellent thread and a solid 1/6 tip

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I see Gorgeous George is touring the news studios, accusing others of opportunism.

He knows how to win a by election from Labour.

https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

Parliament channel on Select committee !

Slackbladder said:

Harry Cole
‏Verified account @MrHarryCole

Oh my. Galloway on Luciana: “I don’t believe she is leaving because of antisemitism... it’s all a lie”. Compares @skynewsniall to Goebbels. Full Livingstone.

Lol...Labour, you're welcome to him.

George is a busted flush. Brand Galloway no longer sells.

For many years an exceptionally talented orator and debater, now 'gone over' and nothing like the force he was. Has become a caricature of himself.

In his prime GG was one of those politicians who I liked, but on the strict proviso he got nowhere near real power. There are plenty of the current crop who I place in that category too. For example, Peter Bone.

Sodium said:

Foxy said:

Sodium said:

Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

The latter is 48% of the vote, quite likely more if recent polling is accurate.

Yes that was the Lib Dems logic at the last election I believe. I'm not sure it still holds much water.

Sure, uncle Vince couldn't capitalise on it, but it certainly is a potentially large pool of voters.

In otber news, an interesting welcome for May in Brussels. Nothing has changed!

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1098168653693009921?s=19

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

Not a proper Conservative.

The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group

TIG is quite obviously a remain party

I expect its secretly also a pro joining the Euro party.

Be interesting to see if they come clean on that.

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098129345166671872

If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.

Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.

With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy hold

The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbs

Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.

Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?

You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.

With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs

In a Brexit election, maybe.

But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.

The Tories will take that seat from her.

Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.

I think much would turn on the size of the Labour vote. I couldn't see a Conservative polling much under 40%.

I don't know why Heidi Allen joined the Conservatives in the first place.

She was well to the Left of Cameron/Osborne even in 2014-2015.

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency

That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.

She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.

Not a proper Conservative.

The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that group

TIG is quite obviously a remain party

I expect its secretly also a pro joining the Euro party.

Be interesting to see if they come clean on that.

They will spin it as being a pro centrist, pro business party the only way to achieve their objectives is to rejoin.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Charles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/WillardFoxton/status/1098126301104353280

That's not an accurate statement.

The Home Secretary also needs to be convinced they have acted in a manner "seriously prejudicial" to the interests of the UK.

And if someone like Corbyn were appointing the Home Secretary?

The law still applies and any decision is still reviewable by the courts.

But the problem is Corbyn’s views of Jews. That is what is spooking so many British Jews and anyone else with dual citizenship (declaration of interest: I have dual citizenship). I do not trust him to deal fairly with the Jewish community or, indeed, anyone else who is deemed to be an enemy or traitor.

Rather than being for the many he seems to surround himself with and listen only to a very small group of people who echo his own thoughts. He has made it very clear - and his reaction to the Tiggers has shown this - that you are either for him or against him. And if you are against him, you no longer count.

Tissue_Price said:

I do wonder about the risks for the TIG here in accepting Tory defectors quite so quickly; it dilutes the impact of their message so far (though obviously they also need to grow from Conservative sympathisers too). Perhaps a CIG would be in order for a while first.

I agree. Do TIG want to be a centre left / anti-Corbyn group and therefore be attractive to everyone from the centre to soft left or do they want to be a centrist party that is attractive from the centre left to the centre right .

DonTsInferno_ said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

eek said:

Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.

Then I saw

https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624

and it doesn't seem such a great idea...

She is not having her citizenship revoked because she has a Bangladeshi passport though. It is because she joined a terrorist organisation completely at odds to our entire way of life.

It's like saying you can't put someone in jail for murder because then they could also put you in jail for being Jewish.

Define "completely at odds to our entire way of life" is the problem.

And don't give Jeremy ideas wrt putting Jewish people in jail.

And welcome!

Is it really controversial to have a situation whereby if you join a proscribed terrorist organisation abroad, we have the right to forbid your re-entry to the UK if possible?

The original counter was it would render her stateless, if there is now a way of getting around that, what’s the problem?

It seems far far less controversial than the French and Russian approach to problematic Isis members.

rottenborough said:

Dadge said:

Sodium said:

Is this new party one that is set up as a centre left party who are fed up with Jeremy Corbyn or is it one that has the purpose of remaining in the EU?

If it is the latter then it's going to have a very limited appeal.

The EU ship is about to sail, so no I don't think the IG is just the Remain Party. Brexit has been the catalyst though, as it has for many non-politicians. The group will build up a lot of goodwill and momentum in the next six weeks, so the timing is quite good. But it's hard to say how things will pan out after 29 March.

Chukka was very clear. The aim is to break the mould of our politics.

This is bigger than Brexit, even if it fails.

Indeed.
Remember, though, that ‘breaking the mould’ was an SDP slogan, over three decades ago.