politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn
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I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.0 -
Have the gang of three left Con yet?
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I wonder what the EU will make of all the drama in the UK if today’s rumours re Tories joining the IG are true. How can May stand there and say give me this and it will pass the Commons.
The second EU vote under the guise of a ratification by the public might start to gather momentum .0 -
Well, err, the Remainer LibDems didn’t take it in 2017.IanB2 said:
Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.YBarddCwsc said:
In a Brexit election, maybe.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.
The Tories will take that seat from her.
And they couldn’t even re-take wafer-thin Cambridge.
Remember the ex LibDem MP for Cambridge was popular -- he still lost by a whopping amount.
I think if the election is held this year and is about Brexit, then Allen has a chance (maybe 50:50)
If the election is in 2020 or after, I think Allen loses.
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Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
In the long run that might be a mistake.0 -
The MMS are terrible aren't they. I mean the Beeb and Sky never have Owen Jones on to talk about Labour unless there is 'y' in the name of the day of the week and the Guardian doesn't publish any of his columns or let him make videos or anything.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.
And then there's Grace Blakely. Never been near a TV studio.0 -
This case is troubling. I personally agree with the Sun and the gammon consensus that she deserves to rot. But that is one of the (many) reasons that I am not fit to be the Home Secretary. Javed is the Home Secretary and yet appears to be no better suited to the role than me. In fact he is increasingly looking like the pits. Not only is he acting in a cheap tabloid manner to impress cheap tabloid people, he is quite obviously doing so purely in order to further his Tory leadership ambitions. Not like. Not like one little bit.Chris said:The press are getting this wrong. The law doesn't generally allow for people being deprived of UK citizenship because they could apply for other citizenship. That's the case only if they are British by naturalisation. And in that case there is also a stricter criterion to be met: "conducive to the public good because the person, while having that citizenship status, has conducted him or herself in a manner which is seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, any of the Islands, or any British overseas territory".
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Ahhhhhh bribery. I recall the negotiations required to get a catering truck with rather a lot of booze and several cars with the same from Western Sahara into the totally dry Mauritania. A few hours in it became an 'ok, how much?' SituationCarolus_Rex said:
The other pariah state for entry/exit stamps was of course South Africa. My father had two passports, one for SA and one for everywhere else south of the Sahara.Sandpit said:
Yes, there are several muslim Gulf states who frown upon Israeli stamps in passports. Most Westerners travelling to both used to get a second passport for the purpose. Some countries are okay on a 'don't ask, don't tell' basis, but others can be very strict and the rules can change at short notice.Endillion said:
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
The bizarre thing was that he did combine trips to SA with trips to elsewhere in Africa, and so would carry both passports with him. He also made sure to carry miniatures and half bottles of Scotch in case the wrong passport was found in his luggage. AFAIK he never had any trouble he couldn't bribe his way out of.0 -
Good article from Alastair and on the money throughout.
I've not had chance to view the Watson video yet but from the comments I've seen quoted, I have to ask the question what are the chances of him defecting? It doesn't sound to me as if he's said anything that either implicitly or explicitly rules it out, depending on how this all develops. Obviously, he won't be MP Number Nine. But might he be Thirty Nine? Or Eighty Nine?0 -
11am was mooted earlier in the thread. Best grab an extra Hobnob with your elevenses cuppa.GIN1138 said:Have the gang of three left Con yet?
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Exactly. Labour are jumping feet first into Javid’s trap.Sandpit said:
There's no way the UK government would make someone stateless, it's against international treaties. There's also (correctly IMO) an automatic right of appeal, which amounts to a judicial review of the Home Secretary's decision.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile, Diane makes herself and her party seem more interested in the rights of terrorists and terrorist sympathisers, than in the right of her countrymen and women to be safe from terrorism.0 -
Cambridge was a tuition fees loss. I can see South Cambs voting liberal-centrist in exactly the way that OxWAb does.YBarddCwsc said:
Well, err, the Remainer LibDems didn’t take it in 2017.IanB2 said:
Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.YBarddCwsc said:
In a Brexit election, maybe.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.
The Tories will take that seat from her.
And they couldn’t even re-take wafer-thin Cambridge.
Remember the ex LibDem MP for Cambridge was popular -- he still lost by a whopping amount.
I think if the election is held this year and is about Brexit, then Allen has a chance (maybe 50:50)
If the election is in 2020 or after, I think Allen loses.0 -
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You've (probably inadvertently) not noticed that they were/are on trial for what they were accused of.TGOHF said:
The Bulger killers and the chap on trial for the events on Bute were teenagers - no sign of any sympathy for them.Theuniondivvie said:
She's a pretty unappealing type of self unaware, immature teenager. In a sense that's more reason that no attention should be paid to grandstanding politicians & foaming Mail readers, Begum hardly appears to have the self preservation instincts of the Great Auk (though surviving 4 years with ISIS suggests some skills in that area).twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
But the SNP do love a terrorist..
Since you've brought the Bute murder up, interesting that when it was first announced how many supporters of a certain club leapt on to social media to make a connection with the Syrian refugees on Bute. Imagine their disappointment..
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I think it's a bad idea to put such power into the hands of politicians. But I hope the decision will be properly examined at appeal.kinabalu said:
This case is troubling. I personally agree with the Sun and the gammon consensus that she deserves to rot. But that is one of the (many) reasons that I am not fit to be the Home Secretary. Javed is the Home Secretary and yet appears to be no better suited to the role than me. In fact he is increasingly looking like the pits. Not only is he acting in a cheap tabloid manner to impress cheap tabloid people, he is quite obviously doing so purely in order to further his Tory leadership ambitions. Not like. Not like one little bit.Chris said:The press are getting this wrong. The law doesn't generally allow for people being deprived of UK citizenship because they could apply for other citizenship. That's the case only if they are British by naturalisation. And in that case there is also a stricter criterion to be met: "conducive to the public good because the person, while having that citizenship status, has conducted him or herself in a manner which is seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, any of the Islands, or any British overseas territory".
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I might be wrong but I thought if she is British, then so is her child?DonTsInferno_ said:
Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
I also think he's entirely correct - but that doesn't mean it doesn't also have a potential core of 20pc of "extreme centrists" (aka "liberal metropolitan elite") who've felt disenfranchised since the referendum/growth of ERG v Corby.Brom said:
I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.
Part of the reason why Blair and Cameron did so well was by capturing that share of the market and radiating chummy competent blandness. Of course, they only did so by tacking it on to an existing 'wing' of politics to give them a majority, which is where TIG will struggle, even pairing up with the LibDems.0 -
One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?TGOHF said:
Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
In the long run that might be a mistake.0 -
True - but amidst all this party swapping, no votes have changed hands over Brexit. Entrenchment lives.nico67 said:I wonder what the EU will make of all the drama in the UK if today’s rumours re Tories joining the IG are true. How can May stand there and say give me this and it will pass the Commons.
The second EU vote under the guise of a ratification by the public might start to gather momentum .0 -
When did the convention end that MPs would fight a byelection on joining the Cabinet?0
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A couple of problems with the law in this case is that it seems only to apply to UK born citizens of immigrant parents, and thus creates a second class of citizens.TheScreamingEagles said:
I made that point last night.eek said:Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...
Secondly, it appears to give a fairly arbitrary power of exile exclusively to the Home Secretary. Sure there are limits on that power, and procedures which have to be followed, but it is basically at his/her discretion.
And in the case of undesirables radicalised at home, it effectively avoids responsibility for a problem created here, and seeks to pass it on to a state (in this case Bangladesh) which has little to do with the whole affair.0 -
Scott_P said:
LOL! #Drama !!!!! :d0 -
I find the reality of
I agree. Though in the case of the current defections there is a case for them calling by elections as a mini referendum on Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am generally content that there are no by elections when an MP leaves a party. Again I go back to the principle that we vote for an individual MP not a party. If we insist on by elections then it gives undue power to the parties over the MPs.IanB2 said:
There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.
That said I was pleased when Carswell chose to out himself up for re-election when he defected.0 -
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I've got to be honest I don't think the political class have taken Brexit all that well... 0
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DecrepitJohnL said:
When did the convention end that MPs would fight a byelection on joining the Cabinet?
Re-Election of Ministers Act 19190 -
I've seen that episode of Game of Thrones... "SHAME !"Scott_P said:0 -
The child enjoys the citizenship of both parents - though for an Anglo-Dutch child at some stage they would have to choose as the Dutch don’t allow dual citizenship (but Brexit has stimulated a rethink).twistedfirestopper3 said:
I might be wrong but I thought if she is British, then so is her child?DonTsInferno_ said:
Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
Agreed.. his video the other day was as supportive of the splitters as it could be without offering them his Vistaprint discount code to save on letterheads. As with Clarke, I suspect he'll settle for "fighting from within", but it was definitely playing the "elected deputy" joker card to kick Jezza in the nuts that hard.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
Sorry to see these Tory MPs go if they do join the Tiggers as Richard N posted earlier this week, with people like Hammond, Rudd and Clark in the Cabinet and virtually all their party ERG opponents just sat on the same back benches rather than at the helm then I don't consider the Tory party lost to them..... (or me) ... yet.
The key difference is the hard left HAVE taken over the infrastructure of Labour, the equivalent hasn't happened yet for the Tories but them leaving makes it a little bit easier.
As long as Ken stays, so do I.0 -
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Could Justine Greening lead the Tiggers?Scott_P said:0 -
Okay, that would be proper Parliamentary theatre.Scott_P said:0 -
Wih Bernie entering the race, I've made another bet - not to back Brnie but to lay Harris. She's clearly behind in the polls to Bernie, and why should she 'burst out' when there is a whole school of fish behind the Bernster. Joe Biden better not endorse her now, mind !0
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Yes but IANAL.twistedfirestopper3 said:
I might be wrong but I thought if she is British, then so is her child?DonTsInferno_ said:
Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/461318/children_born_outside_the_uk_sept_2015.pdf0 -
I think OxWAb has more university votes in the constituency.El_Capitano said:
Cambridge was a tuition fees loss. I can see South Cambs voting liberal-centrist in exactly the way that OxWAb does.YBarddCwsc said:
Well, err, the Remainer LibDems didn’t take it in 2017.IanB2 said:
Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.YBarddCwsc said:
In a Brexit election, maybe.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.
The Tories will take that seat from her.
And they couldn’t even re-take wafer-thin Cambridge.
Remember the ex LibDem MP for Cambridge was popular -- he still lost by a whopping amount.
I think if the election is held this year and is about Brexit, then Allen has a chance (maybe 50:50)
If the election is in 2020 or after, I think Allen loses.
South Cambs only really has Queen Ediths/Trumpington. The centre of gravity of Cambridge University is gradually moving northwards.
South Cambs is a much tougher nut to crack than OxWab (which the LibDems only intermittently hold).0 -
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
I think it's centrists who should be nervous. Centrism is about to be put to the test as an electoral force. If TIG fail, their worldview is going to be totally marginalised in mainstream politicsBrom said:
I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.0 -
Yep I was wondering about Greening....williamglenn said:
Could Justine Greening lead the Tiggers?Scott_P said:0 -
Hugh Bennett
@HughRBennett
3m3 minutes ago
Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes
Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th0 -
williamglenn said:
Could Justine Greening lead the Tiggers?Scott_P said:
LOL! Imagine how furious Chuka would be about that... 0 -
I think much would turn on the size of the Labour vote. I couldn't see a Conservative polling much under 40%.IanB2 said:
Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.YBarddCwsc said:
In a Brexit election, maybe.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.
The Tories will take that seat from her.0 -
Do you think TIG will vote for May's deal?edmundintokyo said:
One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?TGOHF said:
Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
In the long run that might be a mistake.0 -
Testify.Scrapheap_as_was said:Sorry to see these Tory MPs go if they do join the Tiggers as Richard N posted earlier this week, with people like Hammond, Rudd and Clark in the Cabinet and virtually all their party ERG opponents just sat on the same back benches rather than at the helm then I don't consider the Tory party lost to them..... (or me) ... yet.
The key difference is the hard left HAVE taken over the infrastructure of Labour, the equivalent hasn't happened yet for the Tories but them leaving makes it a little bit easier.
As long as Ken stays, so do I.
Plus our votes could be crucial in the next leadership contest.0 -
That would be quite a coup as DG has been the most effective Leader of the Opposition of the past 20 years.Slackbladder said:
Hugh Bennett
@HughRBennett
3m3 minutes ago
Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes
Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th0 -
You sound as rattled as Owen Jones!!Brom said:
I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.0 -
If the ultimate choice was May's deal or No-deal then yes. But not until that do-or-die moment.Stereotomy said:
Do you think TIG will vote for May's deal?edmundintokyo said:
One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?TGOHF said:
Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
In the long run that might be a mistake.0 -
Nope, not without a referendum.Stereotomy said:
Do you think TIG will vote for May's deal?edmundintokyo said:
One thing this does is it puts Corbyn on the hook for No Deal. If you're the only opposition then the chaos is your friend, but what if you're associated with causing the chaos, and there's a credible party full of your ex-MPs that isn't?TGOHF said:
Mixed bag for CU and the tiggers. They gain 3 MPs but it brands them as a single issue referendum denier Remain party.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
In the long run that might be a mistake.0 -
Blimey - it really is the Remain Party.Slackbladder said:
Hugh Bennett
@HughRBennett
3m3 minutes ago
Hugh Bennett Retweeted Guido Fawkes
Latest: hearing that defections will take place at 11am with some chance that Dominic Grieve could be a 4th0 -
That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.
Not a proper Conservative.0 -
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
Yep, i've always thought of him as an utter piece of ****, but maybe he's changed.Sandpit said:
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
Not sure Grieve will jump, he will find it much harder to forge consensus for his meddling outside the big tent0
-
I voted for Tom.RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.
0 -
You only have to ask yourself how many parties would demand that a defector too them immediately stands for election. The answer is going to be very close to zero.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1098004663096541184glw said:Funny how it's only when 7 Labour MPs leave the party that all of sudden Labour decide that defections need to be another route to recall (which I think is a bad idea generally anyway).
0 -
Boles
The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour0 -
-
Unless one of them expects to be called. Then they could ask a theatrical question then announce after PMQs. Like JRM did with his no confidence letter.DecrepitJohnL said:0 -
-
This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.
Dont expect LFI to condemn it though
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/10978887104928972800 -
Some might say weeping and wailing about hardship while voting in the policies that cause it is very much a certain kind of proper Conservative.kinabalu said:
That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.
Not a proper Conservative.0 -
If this is just a ruse to get the viewing figures for PMQs up, I'll be annoyed. #defectionwatch0
-
That's true to an extent. However, important as an issue as Brexit is, it is not the only one and will still pass. It is not defining the party in existential terms other than for a few members. Labour's splits run deeper.IanB2 said:Boles
The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour0 -
I don't get that sense from him. Prefers to be in the tent I thinkIanB2 said:Boles
The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour0 -
Two thirds of all MPs don't want to Leave the EU
Two thirds of Labour MPs don't want Corbyn as leader.
Parliamentary democracy rules OK!
0 -
-
Nailed on to happen on 30th March?Scott_P said:0 -
... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.Sandpit said:
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
So the Tory Party will lose Soubry, Allen, and Wollaston?
Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice. It will be an absolute pleasure to grind their political careers into the dust at the next general election.0 -
Bower is a *****. Unfortunately so is Bastani which blunts the effect somewhat.bigjohnowls said:This is real AS from Dangerous hero author.
Dont expect LFI to condemn it though
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/10978887104928972800 -
You must mix in different circles. I know lots of them for whom Brexit is an obsession. cf. ConHomedavid_herdson said:
That's true to an extent. However, important as an issue as Brexit is, it is not the only one and will still pass. It is not defining the party in existential terms other than for a few members. Labour's splits run deeper.IanB2 said:Boles
The parallel is that very many Tory associations have been taken over by Brexit loons just as surely as the Corbynista grip on local Labour
Edit/ and, to the point, the only test by which they judge fellow tories0 -
That’s how I’d expect them to do it. The letters get sent to the PM at midday when they know she won’t be able to read them, and someone gives Bercow a nudge to call one of them just after Corbyn’s had his questions.Philip_Thompson said:
Unless one of them expects to be called. Then they could ask a theatrical question then announce after PMQs. Like JRM did with his no confidence letter.DecrepitJohnL said:0 -
If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?
It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.
Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.0 -
The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that groupkinabalu said:
That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.
Not a proper Conservative.0 -
If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.Philip_Thompson said:If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?
It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.
Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.
A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM!
0 -
Brom said:
I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.
0 -
Ah yes, ‘Nick’. I think he’s still on trial with reporting restrictions in place, as very little is being said about it. Will be a big story one day in the next few weeks, with potential for a lot of people to get dragged into it.BannedInParis said:
... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.Sandpit said:
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
TIG is quite obviously a remain partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that groupkinabalu said:
That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.
Not a proper Conservative.0 -
Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.IanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
There was a bit in the paper yesterday actually.Sandpit said:
Ah yes, ‘Nick’. I think he’s still on trial with reporting restrictions in place, as very little is being said about it. Will be a big story one day in the next few weeks, with potential for a lot of people to get dragged into it.BannedInParis said:
... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.Sandpit said:
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.
"Nick" will stand trial in May and Harvey Proctor will be called as witness...0 -
Dislike of those two goes wideGIN1138 said:
If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.Philip_Thompson said:If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?
It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.
Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.
A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM!0 -
A hardcore Leaver is going to be next leader regardless so I don’t think it’s going to make much difference there .GIN1138 said:
If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.Philip_Thompson said:If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?
It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.
Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.
A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM!0 -
Until the LDs announce they aren't standing, I don't believe it._Anazina_ said:
Heidi Allen will win her seat no problem, as the Liberals won’t fight it. I also think Anna and Dr W stand a good chance.IanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
Phillip Lee on Sky just now - 'I am not leaving the party'0
-
If you are a non-Corbynite Labour supporter or a Remainer Tory, by far your best bet is to stay in your party. The pendulum always swings back.
It swung back after Foot. It swung back after IDS.
The TIG only makes sense as a reaction to a very special set of circumstances. It only makes sense as a Remain party for preventing Brexit. It loses all relevance after Brexit.
It only makes sense to join it if the EU is absolutely everything to you. This is not a large constituency of people.0 -
Ah okay, thanks. To say it’s potentially an explosive trial is something of an understatement!GIN1138 said:
There was a bit in the paper yesterday actually.Sandpit said:
Ah yes, ‘Nick’. I think he’s still on trial with reporting restrictions in place, as very little is being said about it. Will be a big story one day in the next few weeks, with potential for a lot of people to get dragged into it.BannedInParis said:
... and dropping that mentally ill lad he set up to falsely accuse Tory politicians of being paedophiles. Good call on distancing himself a LONG way from that particular story.Sandpit said:
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.
"Nick" will stand trial in May and Harvey Proctor will be called as witness...0 -
Everything is relative. Given the reported change in the Labour environment he could have stayed the same, but just been left behind as the Corbynites upped the ante.Slackbladder said:
Yep, i've always thought of him as an utter piece of ****, but maybe he's changed.Sandpit said:
Watson has done a great job at losing the bully-boy reputation, probably aided somewhat by the changes to his physical appearance. He's now giving the appearance of being one of very few sensible people left in the upper echelons of the party. Good luck to him!RochdalePioneers said:
Watson leads my wing of the Party. I didn't vote for him as deputy leader but he has grown massively into the role. He is everything a Labour leader should be. And whats more he should be what the left want - yet they still brand him a "Blairite". Which should be funny but then you remember the 2015 = Year Zero mentality.Sandpit said:
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
I don't know about that. At the moment it would be difficult for someone like Boris to get to the final two membership vote. Right now you'd favour a final two of Hunt and Javid etc.nico67 said:
A hardcore Leaver is going to be next leader regardless so I don’t think it’s going to make much difference there .GIN1138 said:
If the hardcore Remainers leave Con it clears the way to a Leaver to succeed Theresa May.Philip_Thompson said:If Grieve and other hardcore Remainers do defect how will that impact proceedings?
It would remove from the Tory Party any considerable Remain wing and leave just a few individuals like Clarke left. I'd have thought that would pressure the PM to tack more to her own party in a Leave direction than Remain one so be ultimately self defeating.
Grieve organising opposition motions essentially from the government benches has been rather powerful to date. Seems odd to chuck that away.
A pathway to PM could be opening up for Boris... Or JRM!
If all the hardcore remainers go then all bets are off as to who would be in the final two...0 -
They stand united against both the biggest labour vote of the 21st C & the biggest democratic vote ever, while seemingly ok with the biggest horror of the 21st Cold_labour said:Brom said:
I actually think he's entirely correct. TIG have basically been given a free pass so far, and judging by the early polling they obviously appeal to wealthy metropolitan journalists proportionately far more than they appeal to the general public.Slackbladder said:
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.0 -
Royal Blue
Frit.0 -
Indeed that is its great strengthIanB2 said:
TIG is quite obviously a remain partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
The party has to be a broad church and I know that both Allen and Wollaston are struggling in the party but mainly on brexit. I am more concerned that their defections will brand TIG as a remain party when it needs to appeal to more than that groupkinabalu said:
That is very charitable of you, I must say, especially as regards Heidi Allen. If I was a Tory member I would be delighted to see the last of her.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency
She is a total wet blanket. For example, instead of celebrating the bracing impact of the new UC benefits regime, all we ever get from Heidi is negativity. Always on TV, making a spectacle of herself, weeping and wailing in distress at the 'hardship' supposedly caused by a few implementation teething problems.
Not a proper Conservative.0 -
Yet?Big_G_NorthWales said:Phillip Lee on Sky just now - 'I am not leaving the party'
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