politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn
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As I have pointed out to the foaming-dog-fever people on Facebook, MPs are elected in law as an individual. Not as a representative of a party. So it is entirely in order to switch party - politically risky as almost certainly sees you booted at the next election, but legally sound.
The people screeching about by-elections are the same who are demanding fealty to Jezbollah.0 -
Nah. FPTP is so fundamentally undemocratic that one must use undemocratic means for the benefit of small parties otherwise the strangehold of Blue and Red will never be broken.YBarddCwsc said:
4 honourable men/women out of 64. And 2 of those were UKIP (Carswell & Reckless).IanB2 said:
There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.
I suspect also that it is the right thing to do for the long term -- in you want to hold the seat at a GE. If you lose in a by-election, you’ll certainly lose at the GE.0 -
Separate thing. I'm talking about Corbyn's plan to force by elections on defectors. To get round that you just get yourself expelled by defying the whip. If the electorate recall tis their right alreadyIanB2 said:
If its a public recall then whips have nothing to do with itdyedwoolie said:Ref recall. Its easily got around. Defy the whip until expelled then join new party. If expelled no right yo recall on that basis
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Right, and then she ends up being stateless when the government of Bangladesh doesn't do what the British government tells them to do - just as we face ending up with no deal because the EU won't simply conform to our red lines.Sean_F said:
To continue the Brexit analogy, the HS might win the case.OblitusSumMe said:
That is my view. I feel deeply uncomfortable that the government reserves the right to strip me of my citizenship. In general I think it is wrong for a government minister to have that power.kle4 said:People keep essentially arguing it's wrong for him to have the power at all. I can get down with that, I don't think it's great either and it seems like a very broad piece of legislation.
In the specifics of this case, I think Javid is wrong to argue that stripping this individual of her British citizenship would not leave her stateless on the basis that she would be entitled to Bangladeshi citizenship due to her parents being born there. She does not yet possess that citizenship, and so it would make an assumption about the action of a foreign state that is unwarranted. I would expect the tribunal to find against the Home Office in this case.
I do not think that Javid expects this to be successful, but it is rather like the Brexit referendum in that he believes he can grandstand on it with no penalty because the grown-ups in the tribunal will find against him (just as Cameron expected the British public would vote Remain and save him). So we have another opportunity for the tabloids to bash judges because a politician wanted to posture.
There are too many instances in cases connected to the Home Office and the DWP where the appeals process is picking up far too much of the burden in reaching correct judgements, as both departments have an established culture of pushing their luck as far as possible in the hopes that people will not have the means, or determination, to appeal.
Unfortunately the polling is clear that the public as a whole cannot get enough of punishing people who are reliant on social security, or who are regarded as not one of us.
One of my hopes with Corbyn was that he would have the courage to take a stand on these issues and argue for something different, but it's another way in which he has been a disappointment.
Brexit in just over 902 hours.
I've no issue with citizenship being revoked - provided due process is followed.
Just as with Brexit we shouldn't have started with a stupid decision made for posturing purposes.0 -
Tell that to Corbyn.DonTsInferno_ said:
If it has always been the case that someone can be stripped of UK citizenship if they qualify for another nation as well, the implied threat to British Jews has always been there, with or without the Begum case.Scott_P said:0 -
Chris Williamson in full 'listening and understanding' mode:
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/10981406054552330250 -
There will be a lot of moderate Labour MPs trying to work out how this is going to go, wanting to be on the right horse.Slackbladder said:This change has been a long time coming. Both the Tories and Labour are unfit as policitical vehicles for the 21st century. If new parties form based on other things than broad left/right politics then thats a fantastic thing.
In the early 1980s Labour was saved by its firm roots in the unions, whose funding and members' votes meant it was never in danger of collapse. In the modern world this isn't such an advantage.0 -
I am generally content that there are no by elections when an MP leaves a party. Again I go back to the principle that we vote for an individual MP not a party. If we insist on by elections then it gives undue power to the parties over the MPs.IanB2 said:
There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.
That said I was pleased when Carswell chose to out himself up for re-election when he defected.0 -
They did. As did I.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1098004663096541184glw said:Funny how it's only when 7 Labour MPs leave the party that all of sudden Labour decide that defections need to be another route to recall (which I think is a bad idea generally anyway).
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Exactly - those applauding Javid (who wants to be Tory leader and knows his constituency) would do well to consider that other home secretaries may consider that very different UK nationals are dangerous and should be stripped of their citizenship.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
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I suspect that one of the many reasons for not yet formally announcing a new party, was to avoid pressure for by-elections, at least until the formalities of the Brexit legislation are complete.RochdalePioneers said:As I have pointed out to the foaming-dog-fever people on Facebook, MPs are elected in law as an individual. Not as a representative of a party. So it is entirely in order to switch party - politically risky as almost certainly sees you booted at the next election, but legally sound.
The people screeching about by-elections are the same who are demanding fealty to Jezbollah.0 -
Wasnt her baby born in Syria of a Dutch father?twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
Agree 100%RochdalePioneers said:As I have pointed out to the foaming-dog-fever people on Facebook, MPs are elected in law as an individual. Not as a representative of a party. So it is entirely in order to switch party - politically risky as almost certainly sees you booted at the next election, but legally sound.
The people screeching about by-elections are the same who are demanding fealty to Jezbollah.0 -
You need to read up on what Labour is proposing.dyedwoolie said:
Separate thing. I'm talking about Corbyn's plan to force by elections on defectors. To get round that you just get yourself expelled by defying the whip. If the electorate recall tis their right alreadyIanB2 said:
If its a public recall then whips have nothing to do with itdyedwoolie said:Ref recall. Its easily got around. Defy the whip until expelled then join new party. If expelled no right yo recall on that basis
Labour is consulting on extending the Recall of MPs Act 2015 to enable constituents to recall MPs if they leave their political party.0 -
Both the top main parties have too much negative baggage from the past. In both bad decisions and personnel. Defending that, both means they are unwilling to change, adapt and are utter stuck in outdated ideologies.IanB2 said:
There will be a lot of moderate Labour MPs trying to work out how this is going to go, wanting to be on the right horse.Slackbladder said:This change has been a long time coming. Both the Tories and Labour are unfit as policitical vehicles for the 21st century. If new parties form based on other things than broad left/right politics then thats a fantastic thing.
In the early 1980s Labour was saved by its firm roots in the unions, whose funding and members' votes meant it was never in danger of collapse. In the modern world this isn't such an advantage.
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A single SDP defector in the early 80s decided to fight a by-election, Bruce Douglas-Mann in Mitcham and Morden. He lost the seat to Tory Angela Rumbold who held it for the next 15 years.0
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Other Home Secretaries could still do that if Javid had allowed Begum back couldn’t they?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly - those applauding Javid (who wants to be Tory leader and knows his constituency) would do well to consider that other home secretaries may consider that very different UK nationals are dangerous and should be stripped of their citizenship.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
The Recall of MPs Act 2015 ended up being amended, such that either a period of imprisonment or suspension from the Commons is required to start a recall petition against a sitting MP.dyedwoolie said:
Separate thing. I'm talking about Corbyn's plan to force by elections on defectors. To get round that you just get yourself expelled by defying the whip. If the electorate recall tis their right alreadyIanB2 said:
If its a public recall then whips have nothing to do with itdyedwoolie said:Ref recall. Its easily got around. Defy the whip until expelled then join new party. If expelled no right yo recall on that basis
It's not something the electorate can initiate on their own, as was the original proposal.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/250 -
Is it ?YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do...
Why should it be a point of democratic principle - particularly in a FPTP system- that the political party be all powerful ?
Such attitudes might explain why two thirds of the electorate don't believe that they are properly represented by the existing parties.0 -
That depends, while they may not do a formal deal with the LDs like the SDP a pact is likely with the new group standing down in rural areas and market towns for the LDs in return for the Liberals standing down in urban areas and the suburbs and new towns for the new groupSean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
It seems the proposed Sainsburys - Asda merger has been demolished by the CMA:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47303166
I did say that I couldn't see how they could allow it.0 -
Before our Labour friends get carried away denouncing dreadful Tories for stripping people of citizenship - the most recent legislation was under Labour and the Coalition:
https://www.statelessness.eu/blog/citizenship-deprivation-how-britain-took-lead-dismantling-citizenship0 -
Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.0 -
Note Harris said clearly yesterday unlike Sanders 'I am not a democratic socialist.' She is pitching herself as the main moderate centrist alternative to Sanders and Warren if Biden does not runNickPalmer said:Parties threatened with defections need to mix carrots and sticks. I don't think that the suggestion of easier recall is a very effective stick, though, since it could only be done in a future Parliament, and as pointed out downthreead it'd be unfair if someone was thrown out of a party invoulntarily.
O/T: Harris and other less-known hopefuls seem to be fading when their launch moment passes. Sanders rising even before he announced:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
My liberal Democrat US contacts are essentially saying "We will look at others but probably go for Sanders in the end". Warren is toast IMO for that reason. The main bit of the puzzle missing is Biden's decision and where his votes go if he decides against.0 -
The key is a deal between TIG, the LDs and ideally the Greens (possibly also PC) based on a common platform for political reform. It'll be interesting to see how TIG handles this - some of the Labour ones have traditionally been very tribal (like Gapes), but with Tories on board they'll hopefully be able to have more of a fresh start.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
The Labourites are going to have to drop the "party left us" stuff if they want to mount a serious appeal to disaffected remainers in both parties.
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If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
Cowards and traitors. Interesting choice of words.CarlottaVance said:Chris Williamson in full 'listening and understanding' mode:
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/10981406054552330250 -
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
Where they going to sit. Next to Dennis. It's roo crowded on opposition benches already. Maybe DUP should sit on Government side.rottenborough said:0 -
For most voters, the priority is to keep one's own side in, and the other side out.TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
Complete whopper him.CarlottaVance said:Chris Williamson in full 'listening and understanding' mode:
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/10981406054552330250 -
I can even see a 5-way alliance to fight FPTP constituencies, with the LDs, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru to maximise the chances of getting people elected.IanB2 said:
The key is a deal between TIG, the LDs and ideally the Greens (possibly also PC) based on a common platform for political reform. It'll be interesting to see how TIG handles this - some of the Labour ones have traditionally been very tribal (like Gapes), but with Tories on board they'll hopefully be able to have more of a fresh start.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
The Labourites are going to have to drop the "party left us" stuff if they want to mount a serious appeal to disaffected remainers in both parties.0 -
Ah, I see yes. Will never pass unamended even if labour get in, it will get watered down to defections only, not expulsions, lost the whip etc and would struggle to pass even thenIanB2 said:
You need to read up on what Labour is proposing.dyedwoolie said:
Separate thing. I'm talking about Corbyn's plan to force by elections on defectors. To get round that you just get yourself expelled by defying the whip. If the electorate recall tis their right alreadyIanB2 said:
If its a public recall then whips have nothing to do with itdyedwoolie said:Ref recall. Its easily got around. Defy the whip until expelled then join new party. If expelled no right yo recall on that basis
Labour is consulting on extending the Recall of MPs Act 2015 to enable constituents to recall MPs if they leave their political party.0 -
It is Javid's specific interpretation of whether or not someone is made stateless that sets a dangerous precedent. It means that every Jew, everyone with Irish grandparents, every single person in Northern Ireland, everyone with Bangladeshi parents and probably everyone with parents from just about every other country in the world could have their British nationality stripped away even if they have never for one second considered themselves anything other than British.DonTsInferno_ said:
Other Home Secretaries could still do that if Javid had allowed Begum back couldn’t they?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly - those applauding Javid (who wants to be Tory leader and knows his constituency) would do well to consider that other home secretaries may consider that very different UK nationals are dangerous and should be stripped of their citizenship.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
How many of the likely defactors have marginal seats?TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
Soubry - definitely, and I believe the Lab candidate already selected and a Corbnista
Allen - don't think so, and looks like only LibDems have selected so far.
Any others?0 -
So if any Conservatives join the splitters what reasons are they going to give ?
Anti-semitism doesn't apply so they are left with Brexit - and they were all elected on a Brexit manifesto and then voted to apply A50.
Seeing Sarah Wollaston tell the world that while we need a chance to vote again on Brexit but the people of South Hams don't need a chance to vote again for her will be amusing.0 -
Yeah - I think it shows balls when they do, but I don't feel particularly strongly that they should (not least, as you say, because FPTP is clearly about individuals).Richard_Tyndall said:
I am generally content that there are no by elections when an MP leaves a party. Again I go back to the principle that we vote for an individual MP not a party. If we insist on by elections then it gives undue power to the parties over the MPs.IanB2 said:
There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.
That said I was pleased when Carswell chose to out himself up for re-election when he defected.
And especially not when you can sit in jail for three months, convicted of a crime involving significant dishonesty, and not face the same requirement.0 -
Given that 'traitor' was what was shouted at Jo Cox as she lay dying more than a little unfortunateAndyJS said:
Cowards and traitors. Interesting choice of words.CarlottaVance said:Chris Williamson in full 'listening and understanding' mode:
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/10981406054552330250 -
In return for PR; I’d support that.AndyJS said:
I can even see a 5-way alliance to fight FPTP constituencies, with the LDs, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru to maximise the chances of getting people elected.IanB2 said:
The key is a deal between TIG, the LDs and ideally the Greens (possibly also PC) based on a common platform for political reform. It'll be interesting to see how TIG handles this - some of the Labour ones have traditionally been very tribal (like Gapes), but with Tories on board they'll hopefully be able to have more of a fresh start.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
The Labourites are going to have to drop the "party left us" stuff if they want to mount a serious appeal to disaffected remainers in both parties.0 -
Even though they have zero policies.TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
I think k they will all lose comfortably.0 -
The Tiggers won't be standing as indies, as keep getting mooted, Chuka has confirmed a new party will be created. Thus any talk of what they might get is moot for now0
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rottenborough said:
Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.
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The independence issue would make it very difficult for unionist parties (TIG will surely be another?) to stand aside for the SNPAndyJS said:
I can even see a 5-way alliance to fight FPTP constituencies, with the LDs, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru to maximise the chances of getting people elected.IanB2 said:
The key is a deal between TIG, the LDs and ideally the Greens (possibly also PC) based on a common platform for political reform. It'll be interesting to see how TIG handles this - some of the Labour ones have traditionally been very tribal (like Gapes), but with Tories on board they'll hopefully be able to have more of a fresh start.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
The Labourites are going to have to drop the "party left us" stuff if they want to mount a serious appeal to disaffected remainers in both parties.
Edit/ And ironically the biggest favour they could do the SNP is by adding another unionist party onto the ballot paper against them!0 -
The interesting thing about the trio is that Dr Wollaston and Anna S would have been considered true blue Tories in years gone by, they are solidly centre-right, in the Major or Clarke mould. It is simply that the party has shifted so far to the right that they can no longer identify with it. I doubt their politics differ much from the likes of Richard N or TSE on here. Heidi Allen is a kitten cut from another cloth - it’s never been clear why she joined the Tories, as she is on the centre, even centre left. But Soubry and Dr W are - or were - blues. Not any more. I think Wollaston could be a strategically useful leader for the Tiggers, leading a centre and centre left grouping from the centre right.Nemtynakht said:It’s like we’ve gone through the looking glass when Corbyn is demanding loyalty from his MPs and that all MPs should agree with everything in last manifesto.
One question I have - obviously the TIG have a plan for rolling , well let’s call them defections in absence of any other word, but what do we think the total number from each party will be. Will there be any from other parties?0 -
What an absurd comment. “ .. the political party is all powereful”Nigelb said:
Is it ?YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do...
Why should it be a point of democratic principle - particularly in a FPTP system- that the political party be all powerful ?
It is the voters that are all powerful. I am saying that the decision should be tested by the voters.
0 -
Who the hell is "one's own side"?Sean_F said:
For most voters, the priority is to keep one's own side in, and the other side out.TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0 -
I wonder how the existence of TIG as not-a-constituted-party is going to affect the May locals. A boost for the Lib Dems?0
-
Kendall.rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.0 -
The answer is Brexit. When you talk about the party moving right - it hasn't. The discourse has just become obsessed with the one issue._Anazina_ said:
The interesting thing about the trio is that Dr Wollaston and Anna S would have been considered true blue Tories in years gone by, they are solidly centre-right, in the Major or Clarke mould. It is simply that the party has shifted so far to the right that they can no longer identify with it. I doubt their politics differ much from the likes of Richard N or TSE on here. Heidi Allen is a kitten cut from another cloth - it’s never been clear why she joined the Tories, as she is on the centre, even centre left. But Soubry and Dr W are - or were - blues. Not any more. I think Wollaston could be a strategically useful leader for the Tiggers, leading a centre and centre left grouping from the centre right.Nemtynakht said:It’s like we’ve gone through the looking glass when Corbyn is demanding loyalty from his MPs and that all MPs should agree with everything in last manifesto.
One question I have - obviously the TIG have a plan for rolling , well let’s call them defections in absence of any other word, but what do we think the total number from each party will be. Will there be any from other parties?
0 -
"Socialist" doesn't mean the same to Americans (at least Americans over 30) as it does to Europeans. Identifying as "socialist" is quite an idiosyncratic Bernie thing, rejecting it doesn't mean you're running as a "moderate centrist". Kamala's spending plans are very much not moderate centrist.HYUFD said:
Note Harris said clearly yesterday unlike Sanders 'I am not a democratic socialist.' She is pitching herself as the main moderate centrist alternative to Sanders and Warren if Biden does not runNickPalmer said:Parties threatened with defections need to mix carrots and sticks. I don't think that the suggestion of easier recall is a very effective stick, though, since it could only be done in a future Parliament, and as pointed out downthreead it'd be unfair if someone was thrown out of a party invoulntarily.
O/T: Harris and other less-known hopefuls seem to be fading when their launch moment passes. Sanders rising even before he announced:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
My liberal Democrat US contacts are essentially saying "We will look at others but probably go for Sanders in the end". Warren is toast IMO for that reason. The main bit of the puzzle missing is Biden's decision and where his votes go if he decides against.0 -
Well if it comes to that fair enough (and to answer @rottenborough I'm not sure!) - in which case they hunker down to the next three years of dictating government policy.bigjohnowls said:
Even though they have zero policies.TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
I think k they will all lose comfortably.
Not a bad trade off.0 -
Even in the old days they would stamp a separate piece of paper, if you asked.Endillion said:
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
These things are always complicated, with good arguments on both sides that are somewhat different from the polarised debate had in the opinion pages of the Mail or the Guardian.TOPPING said:
Agree. I never listen to The Moral Maze on t'radio but this evening's episode is about this issue and I might tune in.twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:TOPPING said:CarlottaVance said:
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
They are also the sort of cases from which a bad law or precedent can result in unintended consequences or over-reach in time, whereby processes designed when the discussion was about terrorists end up applying more broadly.
It is good that there is an automatic right of appeal to the decision, which means that the case will ultimately be decided by judges rather than politicians.
Other countries have of course chosen to deal with this issue differently. It would have been an easy cop-out to have a couple of the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service arrange for an 'accident' to befall her in Syria.0 -
When I went last year I got entry and exit vouchers.Endillion said:
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
0 -
People like me as opposed to people like them who are the other lot.TOPPING said:
Who the hell is "one's own side"?Sean_F said:
For most voters, the priority is to keep one's own side in, and the other side out.TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
Interesting. I'm sure Jezza's squads will root them out.Endillion said:
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
One thing I've always wanted to see is an MP crossing the floor in person as they defect. Apparently the sole Tory who joined the SDP in 1981 did this. I wonder if these 3 or 4 Tories will do that today during PMQs, (or just before or after it).0
-
As far as I can recall during the Blair years the dominant group did not try to deselect the likes of Corbyn , McDonnell and Abbot even during all those years in power.bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule
Therein lies the difference, as soon as the left get the upper hand within the party the first thing they try to do is to crush their opponents and push them out of the party. It was the same during the Benn/Hatton/Militant years.
This time you have the anti-semitism allegations as well and that is going to do for Corbyn. it's got too string a hold in the public mind now and will remain in the limelight.0 -
Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...0 -
If anyone is interested in the legal arguments in the Shamima Begum case, this decision of the Special Immigration Appeals Commission covers the area pretty exhaustively, including expert testimony on Bangladeshi citizenship law and practice:
http://siac.decisions.tribunals.gov.uk/Documents/outcomes/documents/G3 v SSHD 15.12.17.pdf
It seems pretty clear that because she is under 21 she would already have had Bangladeshi citizenship, and would therefore not have been left stateless by Javid's decision. So legally it will just hinge on the "public good" criterion (and any adverse consequences for her child).
Also interesting that in the case dealt with there, the deprivation order made by the Home Secretary (one Amber Rudd) had to be withdrawn because notice hadn't been properly served. A new order was issued two months later.
It seems doubtful that any notice at all was served in Shamima Begum's case, because the letter to her mother says "the order removing her British citizenship has subsequently been made"!
So I suspect Javid's haste to make this political move may backfire because it has been done so incompetently.0 -
Would also involve a selected LibDem standing down i think?Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.0 -
I can’t.AndyJS said:
I can even see a 5-way alliance to fight FPTP constituencies, with the LDs, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru to maximise the chances of getting people elected.IanB2 said:
The key is a deal between TIG, the LDs and ideally the Greens (possibly also PC) based on a common platform for political reform. It'll be interesting to see how TIG handles this - some of the Labour ones have traditionally been very tribal (like Gapes), but with Tories on board they'll hopefully be able to have more of a fresh start.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.
The Labourites are going to have to drop the "party left us" stuff if they want to mount a serious appeal to disaffected remainers in both parties.
The number of Tiggers in the next parliament will be most likely ZERO.0 -
The people you think of as sons of bitches, but at least they're our sons of bitches.TOPPING said:
Who the hell is "one's own side"?Sean_F said:
For most voters, the priority is to keep one's own side in, and the other side out.TOPPING said:
I think they might pick up a lot of voters (well have already judging by the opinion polls) who loathe Jezza and JRM in equal measure. JRM is of course not formally running the Conservative Party but even Con supporters have had eight gruelling years of government and might choose to give the new guy a go.Sean_F said:WRT TIG, I'm sure both Conservatives and Labour would run against them all, as they have a vested interest in snuffing them out.
I think that Wollaston is the only one who would have a fair chance of winning as an independent. There's a big Green vote (in local elections) in her seat, and combined with Lib Dems and any personal vote, I could see her getting 35% or so.0 -
She's a pretty unappealing type of self unaware, immature teenager. In a sense that's more reason that no attention should be paid to grandstanding politicians & foaming Mail readers, Begum hardly appears to have the self preservation instincts of the Great Auk (though surviving 4 years with ISIS suggests some skills in that area).twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
I made that point last night.eek said:Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...0 -
-
Yes, there are several muslim Gulf states who frown upon Israeli stamps in passports. Most Westerners travelling to both used to get a second passport for the purpose. Some countries are okay on a 'don't ask, don't tell' basis, but others can be very strict and the rules can change at short notice.Endillion said:
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
The press are getting this wrong. The law doesn't generally allow for people being deprived of UK citizenship because they could apply for other citizenship. That's the case only if they are British by naturalisation. And in that case there is also a stricter criterion to be met: "conducive to the public good because the person, while having that citizenship status, has conducted him or herself in a manner which is seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, any of the Islands, or any British overseas territory".eek said:Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...0 -
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.0 -
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.0 -
Thanks for the link.Chris said:If anyone is interested in the legal arguments in the Shamima Begum case, this decision of the Special Immigration Appeals Commission covers the area pretty exhaustively, including expert testimony on Bangladeshi citizenship law and practice:
http://siac.decisions.tribunals.gov.uk/Documents/outcomes/documents/G3 v SSHD 15.12.17.pdf
It seems pretty clear that because she is under 21 she would already have had Bangladeshi citizenship, and would therefore not have been left stateless by Javid's decision. So legally it will just hinge on the "public good" criterion (and any adverse consequences for her child).
Also interesting that in the case dealt with there, the deprivation order made by the Home Secretary (one Amber Rudd) had to be withdrawn because notice hadn't been properly served. A new order was issued two months later.
It seems doubtful that any notice at all was served in Shamima Begum's case, because the letter to her mother says "the order removing her British citizenship has subsequently been made"!
So I suspect Javid's haste to make this political move may backfire because it has been done so incompetently.0 -
That's a good point.eek said:Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...0 -
100% agree. Democrats and liberals should be careful what they wish far.eek said:Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...0 -
What you're saying is that you wan to rewrite the existing rules to reinforce the power of the major parties.YBarddCwsc said:
What an absurd comment. “ .. the political party is all powereful”Nigelb said:
Is it ?YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do...
Why should it be a point of democratic principle - particularly in a FPTP system- that the political party be all powerful ?
It is the voters that are all powerful. I am saying that the decision should be tested by the voters.
0 -
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains from the Tories (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDs, in preference to a Brexit party Tory (which is what they will become).another_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.0 -
The other pariah state for entry/exit stamps was of course South Africa. My father had two passports, one for SA and one for everywhere else south of the Sahara.Sandpit said:
Yes, there are several muslim Gulf states who frown upon Israeli stamps in passports. Most Westerners travelling to both used to get a second passport for the purpose. Some countries are okay on a 'don't ask, don't tell' basis, but others can be very strict and the rules can change at short notice.Endillion said:
Israel no longer stamps passports. I think partially for this very reason - although at the time it was more about businessmen who also travelled to the Gulf etc, who otherwise needed two passports.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
The bizarre thing was that he did combine trips to SA with trips to elsewhere in Africa, and so would carry both passports with him. He also made sure to carry miniatures and half bottles of Scotch in case the wrong passport was found in his luggage. AFAIK he never had any trouble he couldn't bribe his way out of.0 -
They are not even pretending they care about the 'old' Labour party now. The take over is near completion.Slackbladder said:
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Which was the trouble with Clegg's original enthusiasm for the idea, until he remembered students.Scott_P said:0 -
And if that's the law then that's the law. Regardless of what Javid does.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is Javid's specific interpretation of whether or not someone is made stateless that sets a dangerous precedent. It means that every Jew, everyone with Irish grandparents, every single person in Northern Ireland, everyone with Bangladeshi parents and probably everyone with parents from just about every other country in the world could have their British nationality stripped away even if they have never for one second considered themselves anything other than British.DonTsInferno_ said:
Other Home Secretaries could still do that if Javid had allowed Begum back couldn’t they?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly - those applauding Javid (who wants to be Tory leader and knows his constituency) would do well to consider that other home secretaries may consider that very different UK nationals are dangerous and should be stripped of their citizenship.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
Of course I am not.Nigelb said:
What you're saying is that you wan to rewrite the existing rules to reinforce the power of the major parties.YBarddCwsc said:
What an absurd comment. “ .. the political party is all powereful”Nigelb said:
Is it ?YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do...
Why should it be a point of democratic principle - particularly in a FPTP system- that the political party be all powerful ?
It is the voters that are all powerful. I am saying that the decision should be tested by the voters.
The original defection I mentioned was FROM a small party.0 -
You can smell the fear....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1098002448478806022
Oh yes. Getting nervous now aren't they. And if it all takes off, then, why, I do declare it was all a media plot.0 -
In a Brexit election, maybe.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.
The Tories will take that seat from her.0 -
Brexit gain in South Cambs - err, right.YBarddCwsc said:
In a Brexit election, maybe.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
But, if the next GE is not dominated by Brexit -- which is likely if it is not held shortly -- then no.
The Tories will take that seat from her.
0 -
So you're relying on 'personal votes'.IanB2 said:
With respect I think there's a huge difference between predicting LibDem gains (which I never did, regarding this seat) and predicting that a very popular Tory MP in one of the most Remain seats in the country would sail home if also backed by the local LDsanother_richard said:
Wasn't Cambridgeshire South one of the constituencies we were told was going to be an easy gain for the LibDems in 2010 ?IanB2 said:
Look at the historic results, and the local election votes.Sean_F said:
The Lib Dems only won 17% there. The villages of that constituency would seem rock-ribbed Conservative to me, although she'd poll well in the Cambridge suburbsIanB2 said:
With a LibDem deal, Allen is an easy holdTheWhiteRabbit said:
If they cannot see their futures in the Conservative Party, then they are right to leave. They have of course all been relaxed as to the Tory whip in the last couple of years.rottenborough said:
Allen and Soubry would lose, but part of me hopes Wollaston hangs on. Parliament would be better for it.
You have to accept that very, very few of the predictions of LibDem 'easy hold' have been correct in recent years.
I would have thought that 2015 would have cured people of that belief.0 -
Given the current attention span and depth of understanding of the electorate, I think they'll get away with "this isn't the party I joined", given how much territory has been ceded to the ERG on Brexit (and possibly being in hock to the DUP) and how their views on it have been trashed while TM bows down to JRM. I'm not sure the claim stands up to particularly rigorous analysis in other policy areas - not least as there don't seem to be that many nowadays - but it'll work as 10 seconds for the teatime news.another_richard said:So if any Conservatives join the splitters what reasons are they going to give ?
Anti-semitism doesn't apply so they are left with Brexit - and they were all elected on a Brexit manifesto and then voted to apply A50.
Seeing Sarah Wollaston tell the world that while we need a chance to vote again on Brexit but the people of South Hams don't need a chance to vote again for her will be amusing.
0 -
With regards to being a group not a party - its the logical option. They know that events (dear boy, events) are likely to sweep away much of the established political norms. So why attempt to shape a party now when the landscape may look very different very shortly.
I've been saying for a while that we are going to see a fundamental realignment of the parties with the old coalitions under the Tory and Labour banners to fall apart as badly as the LibDem coalition did. Punters are very likely to keep voting for the old parties - "I've always voted Conservative/Labour" right up until someone offers something more appealing.
The ideal situation would be that as the Brexit maelstrom sweeps away the post-Thatcher settlement that electoral reform finally happens. Get the TIG group big enough and if they make electoral reform their price of supporting a Brexit vote / a no confidence vote / a budget etc etc then it might just happen.0 -
And that's all the Norns and UK residents with Irish grandparents with their coats on a shoogly peg.eek said:Regarding Shamima Begum I was just about OK with it as I thought she had Bangladesh Citizenship, as she only has the possibility of the right to Bangladesh citizenship I'm rather more dubious now.
Then I saw
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1098135780495642624
and it doesn't seem such a great idea...0 -
As a conservative I will be saddened to see Soubry, Wollaston and Allen to leave and join the TIG but I hope that TM is gracious and thank them for their services to the party. As John Mann said on Sky today TIG are a group of remainers and will receive no support in the north and each one of them should seek to win a by election. He shares their views on Corbyn but he will not leave the party, but if he did he will immediately offer himself for election in his constituency0
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The Bulger killers and the chap on trial for the events on Bute were teenagers - no sign of any sympathy for them.Theuniondivvie said:
She's a pretty unappealing type of self unaware, immature teenager. In a sense that's more reason that no attention should be paid to grandstanding politicians & foaming Mail readers, Begum hardly appears to have the self preservation instincts of the Great Auk (though surviving 4 years with ISIS suggests some skills in that area).twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.
But the SNP do love a terrorist..0 -
No - it's established that British-born children of Bangladeshi parents who have lost their Bangladeshi citizenship because they're over 21 can't legally be deprived of UK citizenship. Javid could do this to Shamima Begum only because she is under 21, and therefore still had Bangladeshi citizenship.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is Javid's specific interpretation of whether or not someone is made stateless that sets a dangerous precedent. It means that every Jew, everyone with Irish grandparents, every single person in Northern Ireland, everyone with Bangladeshi parents and probably everyone with parents from just about every other country in the world could have their British nationality stripped away even if they have never for one second considered themselves anything other than British.DonTsInferno_ said:
Other Home Secretaries could still do that if Javid had allowed Begum back couldn’t they?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly - those applauding Javid (who wants to be Tory leader and knows his constituency) would do well to consider that other home secretaries may consider that very different UK nationals are dangerous and should be stripped of their citizenship.TOPPING said:
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
I still don't see it as impossible that Tom Watson could walk in the future. He's being completely ignored and isolated by everyone around him in the party leadership, despite his elected position. If there's a large group defecting it's not impossible that a majority of the remaining Lab MPs could vote him out. If that happens then the Labour party has truly split in two.rottenborough said:
I know. But it is quite good fun thinking of the nuclear explosion across Westminster that his announcement would cause.algarkirk said:rottenborough said:Here's a left-field thought.
Ken Clarke walks as well, to lead the new party through its early days.
No chance.0
