politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The seven’s great strength is that they’ve not tried to be too

_Anazina_ said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

williamglenn said:

Is this hunchman?

https://twitter.com/BazzieSmith/status/1096525013384077313

No. I've met the real hunchman at a PB bash.

A champagne reception at 788 Finchley Road?

Ha! No, nothing more exotic than Dirty Dick's opposite Liverpool Street!

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

No-one mentions companies like McLaren adding over a thousand jobs in the last two years, nor Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin, Lotus, TVR, eight out of ten F1 teams, Formula E teams and a whole lot of other car-related manufacturing companies within an hour’s drive of Swindon - all of whom are hiring right now.

Hopefully the company and the relevant government departments will find ways to place people around the industry. Greg Clark needs to step up to this and make sure Honda commit to making sure people get found jobs as the factory closes.

Why build here with our uncertain future when the world's largest market is just a stone's throw away and we're not part of it?

Because the British manufacturers at the top end of the car market don't care too much about Europe. Their biggest markets are the USA, China, Middle East and the domestic UK market.

Rolls-Royce and McLaren are not about to start making cars elsewhere, nor to they have the volumes to open a second factory. A significant part of their branding is British expertise in luxury and performance vehicles.

DonTsInferno_ said:

I don’t think she is racist or meant any harm, just surprised at the unusually forgiving acceptance of that kind of slip up.

I think most people are forgiving because most people think it is a slip up. If she had a history of similar oblique language then it might make sense to construe some racist meaning, but to the best of my knowledge she does not. I'm no fan of Labour or the Gang of 7, but I see no reason to think Angela Smith is racist, it was a gaffe.

We have plenty of actual racists to deal with before we start going after people for things that can be uncharitably interpreted as offensive.

SunnyJim said:

I don't believe anybody really believes Angela Smith's remarks were anything other than a blundering attempt to follow on from the previous panelists unusual use of language regarding skin colour.

That said, I get why Corbynista's have flogged it for all it is worth given the day's events.

Far more importantly, has Soubry gone yet?

FAR more importantly - has Lord Falconer resigned yet?

Totally O/t, but an advert for Boots Opticians has just popped up on my Facebook page.

I asked why and this was the answer

'You're seeing this ad because Boots UK wants to reach people aged 35 and older who live in the United Kingdom. This is information based on your Facebook profile and where you've connected to the Internet.'

At least it's honest. Doesn't say how much it cost Boots, though.

Devastatingly accurate.


https://twitter.com/johndavidblake/status/1097795928306663424

Any social democratic Labour MP who falls for the McDonnell, "we are listening" nonsense, is a fool and a useful idiot.

david_herdson said:

Late to this thread so I imagine all the points have already been made but what the heck, let's make them again.

TIG is not a sustainable position. I don't know whether Mike's right or not with his assertion that "The group they’ve designed has one initial purpose and that was to be a vehicle for them to leave Labour and provide a means for others to follow from the Tories and other parties. This meant that they did not have to have a policy platform."

On the one hand, being a purely negative reaction against the direction of Labour under Corbyn (and, potentially, the Tories handling of Brexit), has its advantages in that people aren't put off by specific policies. However, they might just as easily (or more easily?) be put off by that same lack of policies: why jump into a vacuum? Either TIG develops policies (in which case, MPs thinking of defecting might once again find themselves out on a limb), or alternatively it doesn't (in which case, what future does it have?).

My impression is that the ex-Lab MPs still retain sufficient emotional attachment to Labour that they're trying to leave open a door to rejoin. Most are not at the end of their natural political career and would hope to contest the next election. If so, they're badly mistaken. Resigning the whip in this way has burned those bridges and they won't be rebuilt until today's version of Militant is again chased out (which given Hatton's return to Labour this week underscores that the tide is still running against them).

Therefore, they are going to have to either retire from active politics or fight the next election under a non-Lab flag - which in turn implies either joining an existing party or starting a new one.

The local elections take place in two and a half months. If the Gang of Seven were to launch a new party today, and appeal to disaffected Labour and other activists to join them, they might have time to make an impact on them but they'll have to move quickly. Similarly, the Newport West by-election offers another opportunity to make an impact in a Labour-held semi-marginal - as might a Peterborough by-election, depending on events there. These are good opportunities scheduled for a time of likely high political drama when the pieces are up in the air and much might be possible.

By not acting, they are letting chances slip and events shape them.

Any new party would be most likely to just crash and burn, reinforcing the existing 2 party system.

On the one hand, they have followed the only viable path open to them. On the other hand, a lot of people inside and outside parliament could get behind the proposition that the current system has failed and needs to change. A lot of people are not enthused by the main parties. They well may be on to something. Only time will tell.

OldKingCole said:

Totally O/t, but an advert for Boots Opticians has just popped up on my Facebook page.

I asked why and this was the answer

'You're seeing this ad because Boots UK wants to reach people aged 35 and older who live in the United Kingdom. This is information based on your Facebook profile and where you've connected to the Internet.'

At least it's honest. Doesn't say how much it cost Boots, though.

I would say there is rather more focus to the advert than they are claiming. The whole point of FB adverts is they can be micro-targeted given the vast database they have.

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Adonis on Sky News asked about the TIGS. Immediately blames Honda on Brexit. Calls for A50 to be revoked. I'm not sure if he is a one trick pony or he misheard the question....

I would like to think the TIGs would definitely have him in the, "don't call us we'll call you" box.

I hope the gang of 7 have a timetable of defections planned for the next month or so to keep up the momentum because they need to be G20 or G40 in pretty short order if they don't want to fizzle out.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Honda aside, today saw the release of another very strong set of jobs numbers, with the economy adding 427,000 full time jobs in the last year, and a significant q-o-q reduction in both unemployment and inactivity.

Pay growth continues to sit at 3.4%, expanding its lead over inflation slightly to 1.3% - although these things take time to feed into people's wallets in a meaningful way.

Even as someone who tends towards the optimistic on the economy I find these figures bewildering. If output is only rising modestly what the hell are all these people doing? How many fast food delivery cyclists can our economy sustain?

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Totally O/t, but an advert for Boots Opticians has just popped up on my Facebook page.

I asked why and this was the answer

'You're seeing this ad because Boots UK wants to reach people aged 35 and older who live in the United Kingdom. This is information based on your Facebook profile and where you've connected to the Internet.'

At least it's honest. Doesn't say how much it cost Boots, though.

I would say there is rather more focus to the advert than they are claiming. The whole point of FB adverts is they can be micro-targeted given the vast database they have.

Hmm. I'm well over 35 but, so far as I recall, I've never visited any other sites concerned with slight problems. Site problems yes, but that's different!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I didn't see any detail as to how, though.

What Wolff said - make of it what you will:

“We are looking at the various scenarios with Mercedes-Benz UK because it not only impacts Formula 1 but it impacts also the mother brand in terms of getting cars and parts in and out of the country,

“But I can see very much if a ‘no deal’ Brexit would happen like [has] been discussed I think we would have a major impact in terms of our operation going to the races and getting our cars developed and ready. So that is a nightmare scenario that I don’t want to even envisage.

“Ferrari in Italy, Sauber [now Alfa Romeo] in Switzerland, they would have a massive advantage over every UK-based team,

“Brexit is a major concern for us and should be a major concern for all of us that live in the UK and operate out of the UK,” said Wolff. “We are Formula 1 teams that travel to races and tests at least 21 times a year. We are moving in and out of the UK, our people move in and out of the UK, the way we are getting parts and services is just-in-time at the last minute into the UK and any major disruption in borders or with taxes would massively damage the Formula One industry in the UK.

“Our team is an international team. We are German car brand that has its own Formula 1 operations in the United Kingdom we have many different nationalities.

“And there is uncertainty at the moment of whether the industry is going to be impacted by a no-deal Brexit or a Brexit that is that is damaging to what for me is one of the the the outstanding industries in the United Kingdom. And we’ve said that before. The mother of all messes.”

Another welcome effect of the tightening employment market:

"There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier."

If you have good employees in the current market you have to improve their terms to keep them.

Also:
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.2% excluding bonuses, and by 1.3% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."

There is no question that the uncertainty and incompetence manifested by our political class in respect of Brexit is unwelcome and unhelpful. But it has to be said, despite that, things are going remarkably well.

It is always interesting to see the contrast between the lazy and moronic jezza and the much smarter and more dangerous McDonnell. Yesterday jezza stays down the allotment, his office put out a statement basically saying I’m right, they are wrong and he doesn’t bother to address the PLP meeting. Today Johnny mac is giving it the we are listening.

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I didn't see any detail as to how, though.

What Wolff said - make of it what you will:

“We are looking at the various scenarios with Mercedes-Benz UK because it not only impacts Formula 1 but it impacts also the mother brand in terms of getting cars and parts in and out of the country,

“But I can see very much if a ‘no deal’ Brexit would happen like [has] been discussed I think we would have a major impact in terms of our operation going to the races and getting our cars developed and ready. So that is a nightmare scenario that I don’t want to even envisage.

“Ferrari in Italy, Sauber [now Alfa Romeo] in Switzerland, they would have a massive advantage over every UK-based team,

“Brexit is a major concern for us and should be a major concern for all of us that live in the UK and operate out of the UK,” said Wolff. “We are Formula 1 teams that travel to races and tests at least 21 times a year. We are moving in and out of the UK, our people move in and out of the UK, the way we are getting parts and services is just-in-time at the last minute into the UK and any major disruption in borders or with taxes would massively damage the Formula One industry in the UK.

“Our team is an international team. We are German car brand that has its own Formula 1 operations in the United Kingdom we have many different nationalities.

“And there is uncertainty at the moment of whether the industry is going to be impacted by a no-deal Brexit or a Brexit that is that is damaging to what for me is one of the the the outstanding industries in the United Kingdom. And we’ve said that before. The mother of all messes.”

Do you ever wonder whether it's possible those voting Brexit didn't think it through?

Mr. B, I can see the point on visiting some races (and testing is in the EU), but I'd be interested to know the proportion of supply firms etc that are in and outside the UK.

I know almost all the teams are clustered in a tiny corner of Oxfordshire, which is great for engineers who can switch teams without, often, needing to move house or change the school their kids go to. A lot of supply firms also exist in and around the area.

It's also worth noting that of the races this year, I think 8 are in the EU (not counting the UK) and 13 are not. That's enough to have a significant impact but the first 4 races are not in the EU.

Also, this isn't new news. Why Wolff is only talking about it now, if it is a problem, seems peculiar. As someone else mentioned, the quick turn around and just in time nature of F1 would suggest that either they've been asleep, or a lot of contingency planning should've already occurred.

Chris said:

nico67 said:

IanB2 said:

Nicola Sturgeon: "For me, this is one of the saddest parts of Brexit. The UK government is proclaiming the end of free movement as a victory - instead, it is a self-defeating measure. It removes opportunity from millions of people."

Exactly although some Brits still haven’t worked out that the end of freedom of movement relates to them . Some still think they’re special and can swan around the EU without a care in the world .

Not to mention Switzerland ...

Its perhaps worth noting that despite the fact we have been in the EU/EEC for nearly 50 years there are more British citizens living in Australia and New Zealand (where we lost FOM rights 50 years ago) than in the entire EU (excluding Ireland) combined.

98% of Brits aren't taking advantage of FOM now - because while they enjoy their two week holiday to the Med the vast majority have no real interest in moving permanently to work or live to Slovakia or Bulgaria or Greece - language is a barrier let alone the fact that many EU member states have 30% plus youth unemployment.

Nicaraguans and Colombians can 'swan around Europe without a care in the world too' for 3 months - as they have visa free travel rights to Schengen as well. And frankly that is all the vast majority of Brits are interested in - a two week holiday.

I am always tempted to respond - if you are so into FOM why are you still here then? Time to take advantage of all those unfilled job vacancies in Greece or Spain or Italy or Portugal which even local well educated graduates can't get - hence so many of them coming to London and the UK for work? And if you are highly skilled there are better options and better paid options.

Maybe they just aren't that interested - but see the downsides of uncontrolled population growth and lack of planning (e.g. lack of affordable housing for their kids and grandkids, zero hours contracts, overcrowding, waiting 3 weeks to see a Gp etc etc) in terms of where they and their family and friends live and where they want to stay - the UK!

Roger said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I didn't see any detail as to how, though.

What Wolff said - make of it what you will:

“We are looking at the various scenarios with Mercedes-Benz UK because it not only impacts Formula 1 but it impacts also the mother brand in terms of getting cars and parts in and out of the country,

“But I can see very much if a ‘no deal’ Brexit would happen like [has] been discussed I think we would have a major impact in terms of our operation going to the races and getting our cars developed and ready. So that is a nightmare scenario that I don’t want to even envisage.

“Ferrari in Italy, Sauber [now Alfa Romeo] in Switzerland, they would have a massive advantage over every UK-based team,

“Brexit is a major concern for us and should be a major concern for all of us that live in the UK and operate out of the UK,” said Wolff. “We are Formula 1 teams that travel to races and tests at least 21 times a year. We are moving in and out of the UK, our people move in and out of the UK, the way we are getting parts and services is just-in-time at the last minute into the UK and any major disruption in borders or with taxes would massively damage the Formula One industry in the UK.

“Our team is an international team. We are German car brand that has its own Formula 1 operations in the United Kingdom we have many different nationalities.

“And there is uncertainty at the moment of whether the industry is going to be impacted by a no-deal Brexit or a Brexit that is that is damaging to what for me is one of the the the outstanding industries in the United Kingdom. And we’ve said that before. The mother of all messes.”

Do you ever wonder whether it's possible those voting Brexit didn't think it through?

Lies! All lies!

DecrepitJohnL said:

Has it been noted that TIG's site www.theindependent.group is perilously close to www.theindependence.group which redirects to conservativehome.com?

What larks! And yet another sign of TIG's lack of professionalism after their site collapsed yesterday. Testing other variants of TIG's domain name is left as an exercise for the reader.

brexitparty.com is still available at $2795.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

BMG February poll

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-february-2019/

Con 38%, Lab 35%, LD 13%, UKIP 5%

Survation in the mail today included TIG at 8%. Are pollsters now going to include them in their polls

I suspect only as an addendum.

The BMG poll doesn't include them - in fact it predates the TIG.

Latest EMA:
Con 38.8% Lab 36.8%
Con are 14 short of an overall majority
Con+DUP 322 seats
Lab+minor parties 320 seats

I cannot see it as an addendum as it would need to be specified to draw any conclusions

I mean it would be treated the way Survation treated it. A main poll against established parties, and a supplementary poll mentioning TIG.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I can see the point on visiting some races (and testing is in the EU), but I'd be interested to know the proportion of supply firms etc that are in and outside the UK.

I know almost all the teams are clustered in a tiny corner of Oxfordshire, which is great for engineers who can switch teams without, often, needing to move house or change the school their kids go to. A lot of supply firms also exist in and around the area.

It's also worth noting that of the races this year, I think 8 are in the EU (not counting the UK) and 13 are not. That's enough to have a significant impact but the first 4 races are not in the EU.

Also, this isn't new news. Why Wolff is only talking about it now, if it is a problem, seems peculiar. As someone else mentioned, the quick turn around and just in time nature of F1 would suggest that either they've been asleep, or a lot of contingency planning should've already occurred.

AIUI since we don't know what the rules will be in a few days time, what contingency planning there has been as been on a 'what if' basis. And, again AIUI, there's been quite a lot of discussion.

notme2 said:

DavidL said:

Another welcome effect of the tightening employment market:

"There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier."

If you have good employees in the current market you have to improve their terms to keep them.

Also:
"Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.2% excluding bonuses, and by 1.3% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."

There is no question that the uncertainty and incompetence manifested by our political class in respect of Brexit is unwelcome and unhelpful. But it has to be said, despite that, things are going remarkably well.

We truly have a stunning jobs miracle. The fact that it is largely unremarked on is maybe a sign of the times.

We are now ironically firmly in the arena of harming economic growth by restricting migration.

I agree. We have a real shortage of labour building up at present. The activity rate amongst our indigenous population is at a record high so there is not a lot of slack available locally.

The determination of those opposed to Brexit to seize on every piece of bad news and scream disaster means that they are refusing to recognise what is happening right now. It's increasingly eccentric.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I can see the point on visiting some races (and testing is in the EU), but I'd be interested to know the proportion of supply firms etc that are in and outside the UK.

I know almost all the teams are clustered in a tiny corner of Oxfordshire, which is great for engineers who can switch teams without, often, needing to move house or change the school their kids go to. A lot of supply firms also exist in and around the area.

It's also worth noting that of the races this year, I think 8 are in the EU (not counting the UK) and 13 are not. That's enough to have a significant impact but the first 4 races are not in the EU.

Also, this isn't new news. Why Wolff is only talking about it now, if it is a problem, seems peculiar. As someone else mentioned, the quick turn around and just in time nature of F1 would suggest that either they've been asleep, or a lot of contingency planning should've already occurred.

TBH it sounds like Wolff playing the corporate PR game from his bosses in Stuttgart, who are seriously worried about the UK imposing tariffs on German-made cars than anything else. The UK is one of Mercedes's biggest markets.

TOPPING said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Adonis on Sky News asked about the TIGS. Immediately blames Honda on Brexit. Calls for A50 to be revoked. I'm not sure if he is a one trick pony or he misheard the question....

or is a politician.

("That's not the question you should have asked me, the question you should have asked me is...")

Although not the sort of politician that’s keen on obtaining a mandate from the electorate.

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is it true that the Swindon Honda plant is on the site of a Spitfire factory?

Yes.

It's all getting very retro:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1097579703890821120

Wonder how long it'll be till they're having nostalgathons for the Airbus A380?

I'll miss it when its gone - much prefer it to the 350 or 787 in the cheap seats.....bl££dy accountants.....Qatar will be retiring theirs when they get to 10 years old and while Emirates will likely keep them flying a while longer other airlines like SQ may only have them in their fleets for another decade or so. The first one I flew on has already been broken up.

Emirates have already said that the latest orders will be replacement aircraft for older A380s. The first few dozen they made were horrendously overweight, limited in passenger numbers, cargo and range as a result.

The first SQ ones were overweight - and late - as well - which is why the owners (SQ leased them) haven't been able to find buyers. They've retired their first four - the first two of which have been dismantled for spares. Malaysian has withdrawn their A380s from commercial service too. Hamburg & Toulouse didn't cover themselves in glory in the A380 start up.

The big screwup with the A380 is that it has no future as a cargo hauler, as opposed to the B744

The 747 was originally designed specifically to be able to carry cargo - it is two pallets wide - so when the future of air travel - supersonic - took over, all those seats could be ripped out and the aircraft could carry cargo.

Its a shame, but the 380 will go the way of my previous favourite (and next quietest) the 340 - two engines trumps 4 when it comes to fuel economy.

nielh said:

david_herdson said:

...

The local elections take place in two and a half months. If the Gang of Seven were to launch a new party today, and appeal to disaffected Labour and other activists to join them, they might have time to make an impact on them but they'll have to move quickly. Similarly, the Newport West by-election offers another opportunity to make an impact in a Labour-held semi-marginal - as might a Peterborough by-election, depending on events there. These are good opportunities scheduled for a time of likely high political drama when the pieces are up in the air and much might be possible.

By not acting, they are letting chances slip and events shape them.

Any new party would be most likely to just crash and burn, reinforcing the existing 2 party system.

On the one hand, they have followed the only viable path open to them. On the other hand, a lot of people inside and outside parliament could get behind the proposition that the current system has failed and needs to change. A lot of people are not enthused by the main parties. They well may be on to something. Only time will tell.

I can't see seven MPs magicking up an organisation capable of effectively fighting the local elections in 10 weeks' time.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Has it been noted that TIG's site www.theindependent.group is perilously close to www.theindependence.group which redirects to conservativehome.com?

What larks! And yet another sign of TIG's lack of professionalism after their site collapsed yesterday. Testing other variants of TIG's domain name is left as an exercise for the reader.

Their inability to proof read also gave the impression of a rather hurried slap-dash approach.

They need to sharpen up their act ahead of forming a party. Get some media training. Or at least, ensure that those who are not very adept at appearing on the media are kept far, far away.....

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

brendan16 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so I've just come home from a holiday in India to some really exciting Party news. Would be interesting to see how many more Labour MPs jump ship in the next few days.

Will Wes Streeting join Mike Gapes in the Tiggers and make Ilford a one party Tigger state?

Perhaps they will have to rename Redbridge - as 'not so Red bridge'?

PS Hope you had a nice holiday!

Thanks!

Ilford South is pretty much as safe Labour as you can get - mum and I were debating with our cab driver coming back from Heathrow how much of a personal vote Gapes has. We came to the conclusion - not much!

Ilford North until as recently as 2015 had a Tory MP, Lee Scott. But at GE2015 Wes Streeting won it, and at GE2017 his majority sky-rocketed, making the seat pretty safe.

Gapes will retire next time anyway. He was facing replacement by a Muslim candidate anyway. Of the Tiggers he sticks out as a dinosaur amongst modernisers.

As you say Ilford has changed massively demographically in the last 10-15 years like much of outer east London. Neither Gapes or Streeting are exactly representative of the area and the local community anymore.

They would stand no chance as independents against what would be a BAME/female Labour candidate. They are also seats with high population turnovers relatively - so its harder for any person to build up a loyal personal vote.

Indeed I doubt any of the 7 would hold their seats - where are the backers, the infrastructure and the voting base?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

BMG February poll

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-february-2019/

Con 38%, Lab 35%, LD 13%, UKIP 5%

Survation in the mail today included TIG at 8%. Are pollsters now going to include them in their polls

I suspect only as an addendum.

The BMG poll doesn't include them - in fact it predates the TIG.

Latest EMA:
Con 38.8% Lab 36.8%
Con are 14 short of an overall majority
Con+DUP 322 seats
Lab+minor parties 320 seats

I cannot see it as an addendum as it would need to be specified to draw any conclusions

I mean it would be treated the way Survation treated it. A main poll against established parties, and a supplementary poll mentioning TIG.

Survation did not separate TIG - Cons 39 labour 34 TIG 8 Lib Dem 6 UKIP 5 Othrs 8

It did. Cons 40% Lab 35.5% LD 10% UKIP 5%

Tables are here: https://www.survation.com/survation-on-behalf-of-daily-mail-final-tables/

Chris said:

nielh said:

david_herdson said:

...

The local elections take place in two and a half months. If the Gang of Seven were to launch a new party today, and appeal to disaffected Labour and other activists to join them, they might have time to make an impact on them but they'll have to move quickly. Similarly, the Newport West by-election offers another opportunity to make an impact in a Labour-held semi-marginal - as might a Peterborough by-election, depending on events there. These are good opportunities scheduled for a time of likely high political drama when the pieces are up in the air and much might be possible.

By not acting, they are letting chances slip and events shape them.

Any new party would be most likely to just crash and burn, reinforcing the existing 2 party system.

On the one hand, they have followed the only viable path open to them. On the other hand, a lot of people inside and outside parliament could get behind the proposition that the current system has failed and needs to change. A lot of people are not enthused by the main parties. They well may be on to something. Only time will tell.

I can't see seven MPs magicking up an organisation capable of effectively fighting the local elections in 10 weeks' time.

All they need to do is test the water in a handful of wards. Or not bother. It's way too early to start thinking like a national party

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is it true that the Swindon Honda plant is on the site of a Spitfire factory?

Yes.

It's all getting very retro:

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1097579703890821120

Wonder how long it'll be till they're having nostalgathons for the Airbus A380?

I'll miss it when its gone - much prefer it to the 350 or 787 in the cheap seats.....bl££dy accountants.....Qatar will be retiring theirs when they get to 10 years old and while Emirates will likely keep them flying a while longer other airlines like SQ may only have them in their fleets for another decade or so. The first one I flew on has already been broken up.

Emirates have already said that the latest orders will be replacement aircraft for older A380s. The first few dozen they made were horrendously overweight, limited in passenger numbers, cargo and range as a result.

The first SQ ones were overweight - and late - as well - which is why the owners (SQ leased them) haven't been able to find buyers. They've retired their first four - the first two of which have been dismantled for spares. Malaysian has withdrawn their A380s from commercial service too. Hamburg & Toulouse didn't cover themselves in glory in the A380 start up.

The big screwup with the A380 is that it has no future as a cargo hauler, as opposed to the B744

The 747 was originally designed specifically to be able to carry cargo - it is two pallets wide - so when the future of air travel - supersonic - took over, all those seats could be ripped out and the aircraft could carry cargo.

Its a shame, but the 380 will go the way of my previous favourite (and next quietest) the 340 - two engines trumps 4 when it comes to fuel economy.

Very much so, the whole reason behind the hump on the 747 was that it was also designed as a front-lifting cargo hauler. Many old 747s are now running cargo around the world.

4-engined aircraft are now becoming redundant as a result of increased reliability and more relaxed ETOPS regulations around widebodied twins.

Roger said:

I have been to the Audi BMW and Mercedes factories in Germany having shot commercials for all three. They were all in their different ways like the Guggenheim in Bilbao. i've never seen factories like them. i don't know what the British ones are like but I suspect if they were anything like the German ones they'd have sell-out guided tours.

The Land Rover factory in Solihull did offer sell out tours of the Defender production line before it closed.

It didn't look like the Guggenheim, although many parts could have been in a museum

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

No-one mentions companies like McLaren adding over a thousand jobs in the last two years, nor Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin, Lotus, TVR, eight out of ten F1 teams, Formula E teams and a whole lot of other car-related manufacturing companies within an hour’s drive of Swindon - all of whom are hiring right now.

Hopefully the company and the relevant government departments will find ways to place people around the industry. Greg Clark needs to step up to this and make sure Honda commit to making sure people get found jobs as the factory closes.

Why build here with our uncertain future when the world's largest market is just a stone's throw away and we're not part of it?

Because the British manufacturers at the top end of the car market don't care too much about Europe. Their biggest markets are the USA, China, Middle East and the domestic UK market.

Rolls-Royce and McLaren are not about to start making cars elsewhere, nor to they have the volumes to open a second factory. A significant part of their branding is British expertise in luxury and performance vehicles.

I have been to the Audi BMW and Mercedes factories in Germany having shot commercials for all three. They were all in their different ways like the Guggenheim in Bilbao. i've never seen factories like them. i don't know what the British ones are like but I suspect if they were anything like the German ones they'd have sell-out guided tours.

Here you go:
https://www.pocket-lint.com/cars/news/mclaren/120297-mclaren-technology-centre

DavidL said:

edmundintokyo said:

notme2 said:

We truly have a stunning jobs miracle. The fact that it is largely unremarked on is maybe a sign of the times.

We are now ironically firmly in the arena of harming economic growth by restricting migration.

The other aspect to Japanese companies moving production back to Japan is that Japanese immigration policy is liberalizing very fast.

About time. That has been a major drag on their growth for decades.

Very funny to hear this from a Leaver.

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

edmundintokyo said:

notme2 said:

We truly have a stunning jobs miracle. The fact that it is largely unremarked on is maybe a sign of the times.

We are now ironically firmly in the arena of harming economic growth by restricting migration.

The other aspect to Japanese companies moving production back to Japan is that Japanese immigration policy is liberalizing very fast.

About time. That has been a major drag on their growth for decades.

Very funny to hear this from a Leaver.

Do you think Japan will liberalise to FOM with their Asian neighbours?

ydoethur said:

*Pulls smug face*

Can I just remind people of this comment I made on the 26th July last year:

“Whether Labour are just being incredibly careless and complacent or whether Corbyn really is a closet Nazi, it is quite clear that this goes way, way beyond Livingstone making stupid remarks on Zionism or a shadow equalities minister calling for ethnic cleansing. This is now a systemic issue that implicates the entire Labour movement.

And unfortunately for Labour it has come (1) at the moment people are fed up with Brexit and (2) at the start of the silly season when the papers are looking for stuff to fill column inches.

I’ve been told before that there are not many Jews in this country. That is of course true. But if people get it in their heads that Labour are racist (and potentially criminals in light of other events) it’s going to hurt them badly.

I do hope all the scoffers are satisfied with the way their predictions turned out...

Yes. You said it well. I remember being criticised by some on here too for pointing out the vileness which Corbyn’s election as leader had unleashed within Labour. None so blind......

TrèsDifficile said:

Do you think Japan will liberalise to FOM with their Asian neighbours?

Ever? Yes.
Soon? No.

williamglenn said:

How the Honda decision is being reported in Asia:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Honda-to-shut-UK-plant-by-2022-in-another-Brexit-retreat

Honda to shut UK plant by 2022 in another Brexit retreat

The prospect of Brexit, scheduled for March 29, added yet more uncertainty to a business already mired in red ink. While peer automakers are planning more moderate measures such as temporary stoppages in light of Brexit-linked uncertainty, Honda plans to go a step further by shutting down its only production site in Europe.

Other international companies, including Japanese electronics makers Panasonic and Sony, plan to relocate certain British operations to the European mainland.

I was European FD for one of the big Japanese electronics companies in the 80s and 90s. Whilst they are now more diverse in their senior management ranks, I would have thought that some of the old ways of thinking persist. And that doesn’t bode well for the U.K. The Japanese corporations compete fiercely in their day-to-day operations but act together far more strategically. The Japanese Government always played a key role in setting the long term strategic ambitions for exports and overseas presence. If Japan plc has decided to withdraw from U.K. manufacturing then, whilst each corporation will set its own timetable, the end game will be the same.

One final point, the Japanese preferred the U.K. for manufacturing and as a base for sales and marketing for many reasons: homogeneity of workforce, language, driving on the right side of the road, willingness of the U.K. government to seeing U.K-owned manufacturing sites bought up by Japanese corps, compliant Unions even willing to enter no-strike deals etc etc. BUT, the contrary factor that frightened them even in the 90s was the thought that the U.K. would become detached from the EU...

brendan16 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

brendan16 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so I've just come home from a holiday in India to some really exciting Party news. Would be interesting to see how many more Labour MPs jump ship in the next few days.

Will Wes Streeting join Mike Gapes in the Tiggers and make Ilford a one party Tigger state?

Perhaps they will have to rename Redbridge - as 'not so Red bridge'?

PS Hope you had a nice holiday!

Thanks!

Ilford South is pretty much as safe Labour as you can get - mum and I were debating with our cab driver coming back from Heathrow how much of a personal vote Gapes has. We came to the conclusion - not much!

Ilford North until as recently as 2015 had a Tory MP, Lee Scott. But at GE2015 Wes Streeting won it, and at GE2017 his majority sky-rocketed, making the seat pretty safe.

Gapes will retire next time anyway. He was facing replacement by a Muslim candidate anyway. Of the Tiggers he sticks out as a dinosaur amongst modernisers.

As you say Ilford has changed massively demographically in the last 10-15 years like much of outer east London. Neither Gapes or Streeting are exactly representative of the area and the local community anymore.

They would stand no chance as independents against what would be a BAME/female Labour candidate. They are also seats with high population turnovers relatively - so its harder for any person to build up a loyal personal vote.

Indeed I doubt any of the 7 would hold their seats - where are the backers, the infrastructure and the voting base?

Poor Angela Smith has a majority of only 1,300 or so.

TrèsDifficile said:

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

edmundintokyo said:

notme2 said:

We truly have a stunning jobs miracle. The fact that it is largely unremarked on is maybe a sign of the times.

We are now ironically firmly in the arena of harming economic growth by restricting migration.

The other aspect to Japanese companies moving production back to Japan is that Japanese immigration policy is liberalizing very fast.

About time. That has been a major drag on their growth for decades.

Very funny to hear this from a Leaver.

Do you think Japan will liberalise to FOM with their Asian neighbours?

If they are under 35 they might have to.

One politician who has impressed me in recent weeks, much to my surprise, has been Tom Watson.

He used to be a bit of a thug, in Brown days. Perhaps he still is. His behaviour over the child abuse accusations was very poor indeed.

And yet he has made two good speeches in recent weeks: one about Mrs May’s failings as leader, which applied to more people than just her. And his statement on Facebook last night following the departure of the Tiggers (brilliant name BTW @Anazina!) was very thoughtful. It struck me as the speech of a leader, of someone who wants to be leader, someone who will be leader, if the opportunity arises.

One to watch, I think.

Sandpit said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

No-one mentions companies like McLaren adding over a thousand jobs in the last two years, nor Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin, Lotus, TVR, eight out of ten F1 teams, Formula E teams and a whole lot of other car-related manufacturing companies within an hour’s drive of Swindon - all of whom are hiring right now.

Hopefully the company and the relevant government departments will find ways to place people around the industry. Greg Clark needs to step up to this and make sure Honda commit to making sure people get found jobs as the factory closes.

Why build here with our uncertain future when the world's largest market is just a stone's throw away and we're not part of it?

Because the British manufacturers at the top end of the car market don't care too much about Europe. Their biggest markets are the USA, China, Middle East and the domestic UK market.

Rolls-Royce and McLaren are not about to start making cars elsewhere, nor to they have the volumes to open a second factory. A significant part of their branding is British expertise in luxury and performance vehicles.

I have been to the Audi BMW and Mercedes factories in Germany having shot commercials for all three. They were all in their different ways like the Guggenheim in Bilbao. i've never seen factories like them. i don't know what the British ones are like but I suspect if they were anything like the German ones they'd have sell-out guided tours.

Here you go:
https://www.pocket-lint.com/cars/news/mclaren/120297-mclaren-technology-centre

Thank you. Very stylish. The difference is in the scale. the German ones are literally towns where everything appears to be involved in the production of the cars and looking after the workers. Like a modern day Port Sunlight. My thought when i saw these futuristic German colossuses- -was who could ever compete?

Cyclefree said:

One politician who has impressed me in recent weeks, much to my surprise, has been Tom Watson.

He used to be a bit of a thug, in Brown days. Perhaps he still is. His behaviour over the child abuse accusations was very poor indeed.

And yet he has made two good speeches in recent weeks: one about Mrs May’s failings as leader, which applied to more people than just her. And his statement on Facebook last night following the departure of the Tiggers (brilliant name BTW @Anazina!) was very thoughtful. It struck me as the speech of a leader, of someone who wants to be leader, someone who will be leader, if the opportunity arises.

One to watch, I think.

Leader of which party?

DavidL said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Honda aside, today saw the release of another very strong set of jobs numbers, with the economy adding 427,000 full time jobs in the last year, and a significant q-o-q reduction in both unemployment and inactivity.

Pay growth continues to sit at 3.4%, expanding its lead over inflation slightly to 1.3% - although these things take time to feed into people's wallets in a meaningful way.

Even as someone who tends towards the optimistic on the economy I find these figures bewildering. If output is only rising modestly what the hell are all these people doing? How many fast food delivery cyclists can our economy sustain?

In all likelihood, in future years, the ONS will revise output numbers up, as they did for the 2010-2013 period (remember the "double dip recession" of 2012 which turned out never to have happened). No one truly believes that construction output only rose by 0.7% last year, for example.

Mr. Mark, watched a spot of the BBC news just now. Honda top story. The newsreader repeated the Japanese bigwig's comment that this wasn't anything to do with leaving the EU, though that was mentioned repeatedly throughout, more often than the FTA between the EU and Japan. I don't think diesel's decline was mentioned once.