politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes”
Comments
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No deal is looking likely I would agree. TM to step down march 30thTheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
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Think Casino is right.
Joff is wrong.
Cross party consensus is the new line.
Softer Brexit.0 -
I learn something new every day, thank you.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only privately-owned station on the National Rail network.AlastairMeeks said:Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.
(factoid of the day for you guys!)0 -
If you really wanted no deal you wouldn't travel just to tell them.TGOHF said:DUP telling TM to go to Brussels and tell them no deal.
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Wonder if it would actually win many Labour votesRochdalePioneers said:
Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.RochdalePioneers said:
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.SouthamObserver said:So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
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May needs to take the DUP to Brussels.
And Frank Field.0 -
Well that was a nailer biter....0
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Kerching £40 to the good. Should have put more on...0
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No, they'll ask May what's next. She has to find something the Commons will vote for by Monday, or she loses control even of the business of the house. They'll vote to block no deal, which means she's left with agreeing to things she's been against forever, or to go for an election, or to revoke.Slackbladder said:I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?
What's going to be really funny are interview after interview after interview with Tory MPs. "You are a leave supporter. You voted against leaving the EU. You then voted confidence in May but stand here saying you will again vote against leaving the EU if she puts it to the vote so that you can you claim reach you preferred goal of leaving the EU. Are you congenitally insane or merely drunk?0 -
DUP : "only situation would withdraw support is if deal had passed".
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If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?viewcode said:
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the electionydoethur said:
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
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What time is the vote tomorrow?0
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DUP like a bit of theater - and they are giddy with glee tonight.williamglenn said:
If you really wanted no deal you wouldn't travel just to tell them.TGOHF said:DUP telling TM to go to Brussels and tell them no deal.
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It was close though.AndyJS said:Today's Daily Mail editorial urging a vote in favour of the Deal failed to carry the day.
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Corbyn would find some other reason not to vote for it - that there was a Jew on the negotiating team, or that one of the Europeans was a posho pretending to be working class, or that they made a crude reference to Stalin.Stereotomy said:
Wonder if it would actually win many Labour votesRochdalePioneers said:
Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.RochdalePioneers said:
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.SouthamObserver said:So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
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7.00pmRobD said:What time is the vote tomorrow?
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Great things about votes of no confidence is that you can have more than one.0
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She can stay for precisely as long as she can command a Parliamentary majority, i.e. until one wing or the other of the Tory party breaks ranks and slings her out (the DUP will stay on side unless or until the Deal passes, of course - which looks less than certain at the moment...)Floater said:
How can she stay?grabcocque said:Full list of Tory rebels (118)
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-has-suffered-the-worst-defeat-in
Around 2/3rds of backbenchers voted No. Absolute SHOCKER.
The ERG wing can sit tight and allow the clock to run down, so unless Parliament does a 180-degree volte face and backs the Withdrawal Agreement then it's all down to the Tory pro-EU wing. If they back the Prime Minister but won't vote for her Deal then Hard Brexit is guaranteed.0 -
As per the threader header, the influence of the DUP is disproportionate and, frankly, undemocratic.TGOHF said:May needs to take the DUP to Brussels.
And Frank Field.0 -
Yes, your pet project is a fucking bore.TGOHF said:
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?Richard_Nabavi said:So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
At last you have seen the light.0 -
Give me a minute to read up.Richard_Tyndall said:
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?viewcode said:
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the electionydoethur said:
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
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No, he took eight days to call an election. He didn't resign until he had lost the election. So it was a little over 5 weeks from losing the VONC to resigning.AlastairMeeks said:
Even under the old rules, Prime Ministers only had to resign with some promptness. Jim Callaghan took eight days.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
No, it isn't legally. She'd have 14 days to win a further confidence vote, else Parliament would be dissolved.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
Presumably, if she lost it'd be down to the DUP, and there may be an offer she could make, using other people's money.0 -
It’s not all bad news; Newcastle are winning 0-2.-1
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Hmm - do their votes count double ? They count the same as other MPs.Benpointer said:
As per the threader header, the influence of the DUP is disproportionate and, frankly, undemocratic.TGOHF said:May needs to take the DUP to Brussels.
And Frank Field.0 -
So the bbc politics show has a Novara Media as a talking head. The world has gone mad. Fake news everywhere.0
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Insert the Harry Enfield clip here....TGOHF said:May needs to take the DUP to Brussels.
And Frank Field.0 -
Agreed. Its the default option and therefore the most likely now.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)0 -
In all of this it is also a failure of Barnier and Junckers and the EU0
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I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.0
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Here’s hoping!Anazina said:Think Casino is right.
Joff is wrong.
Cross party consensus is the new line.
Softer Brexit.
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No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)0 -
Do we know how many of the Tory rebels were Remainers and how many hard(er) Brexiteers?0
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It's not in PPERA 2000. Let me try FTPA.viewcode said:
Give me a minute to read up.Richard_Tyndall said:
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?viewcode said:
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the electionydoethur said:
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
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Brexit is a destination not a journey.Anazina said:
Yes, your pet project is a fucking bore.TGOHF said:
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?Richard_Nabavi said:So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
At last you have seen the light.
You would love to nationalise the railways, the banks and TV channels - but you wouldn't want the process to last 3 years.0 -
25 working days, I believe. And the Prime Minister gets to choose the date, so she could put it off for longer if she were so minded.Richard_Tyndall said:
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?viewcode said:
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the electionydoethur said:
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
If the minimum period is observed then there would be just about enough time to hold an election and for a new Government to be formed before March 29th. Assuming that there wasn't another Hung Parliament, followed by a lengthy period of flapping trying to sort out a majority, of course...0 -
Delaying this vote looks utterly stupid now0
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May was responsible for the stupid red lines because she is utterly paranoid about immigrants. That made any sensible deal likely to be supported by Remain supporters impossible.AndyJS said:I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
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DUP confirm they vote against a VONC
Easy Government win.0 -
I suppose, given that everyone's already knocking about the place for the massive vote and we're ahead of schedule having ditched most of the amendments, it'd be far too easy to just actually have the confidence vote right now and inject a bit of urgency into all this.0
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Name me three good stories she has nailed in her entire careerGallowgate said:
Yawn.Anazina said:
She is a fucking terrible journalist - just parrots whatever line is availablegrabcocque said:Laura Kuenssberg doing her "unofficial spokesman for the Prime Minister" schtick.
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BBC says debate 1pm vote 7pm0
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Glad I am stockpiling food. Another bulky delivery due Thursday.
Unfortunately doesn't deal with the medicines issue.
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Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.0 -
Hmmm... Might need to belay that factoid: a company Chester-le-Track owns the station, but it seems they may have ceased trading in March last year, depending on your Googling skills!viewcode said:
I learn something new every day, thank you.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only privately-owned station on the National Rail network.AlastairMeeks said:Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.
(factoid of the day for you guys!)0 -
Don't forget Leo. The gamble didn't come off and the poor old Irish farmer will pay a heavy price for his intransigence.Big_G_NorthWales said:In all of this it is also a failure of Barnier and Junckers and the EU
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25 working days, i.e. 5 weeks between dissolution and election day. Dissolution would be at HM's pleasure upon advice from whoever is PM at the end of the 14 day period.viewcode said:
Give me a minute to read up.Richard_Tyndall said:
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?viewcode said:
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the electionydoethur said:
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
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Being in the single market also makes Britain subject to the ECJ and EU laws and regs. Not as simple as hating immigration.Chris_A said:
May was responsible for the stupid red lines because she is utterly paranoid about immigrants. That made any sensible deal likely to be supported by Remain supporters impossible.AndyJS said:I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
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As usual, both Remainers and Leavers are hailing this as a victory for their point of view. So no change there.0
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There's always one bright spot:
http://www.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/10852654153732751360 -
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?TGOHF said:
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.AndyJS said:I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.0 -
Chukka concedes the VoNC on Radio 5 and calls for Jezza to back a rerun of the referendum by Friday.0
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Simply untrue - the backstop nonsense sunk the deal.JonathanD said:
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?TGOHF said:
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.AndyJS said:I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
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No deal belong Brussels......MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)0 -
It woz the Mail that kept it to 230!bigjohnowls said:
It was close though.AndyJS said:Today's Daily Mail editorial urging a vote in favour of the Deal failed to carry the day.
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It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solutionMaxPB said:
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined0 -
What rot.JonathanD said:
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?TGOHF said:
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.AndyJS said:I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
Remember the golden rule of Brexit...0 -
Juncker was elected on a mandate to renegotiate and settle the British question.viewcode said:
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.Casino_Royale said:williamglenn said:
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
He totally failed to do so. He should have resigned when David Cameron did. The fact he didn’t tells you everything you need to know about the EU.0 -
Theresa May is in the glorious place where she has job security just as long as she doesn't actually deliver what her job requires of her.0
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Exactly. All the Eurosceptics who campaigned for Leave and are now calling Brexiteer MPs idiots for not backing this deal need to look in the mirror.JonathanD said:Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
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A deal agreed by Parliament 65% (-20%)TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Extension of A50 and second referendum 35% (+20%)0 -
Wrong again. I would nationalise the railways only and would fully expect it to take up to 10 years as the franchises came up.TGOHF said:
Brexit is a destination not a journey.Anazina said:
Yes, your pet project is a fucking bore.TGOHF said:
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?Richard_Nabavi said:So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
At last you have seen the light.
You would love to nationalise the railways, the banks and TV channels - but you wouldn't want the process to last 3 years.0 -
The flaw in your argument is the hyperbolic "...traitors in the party would be strung up before that". No, they literally wouldn't. Thankfully.MaxPB said:
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.0 -
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solutionMaxPB said:
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
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Obviously. You can't alienated and screw over people just because you think you can.Big_G_NorthWales said:In all of this it is also a failure of Barnier and Junckers and the EU
Good for Parliament for standing up to Barnier.0 -
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Leavers are full of shit?Mortimer said:
What rot.JonathanD said:
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?TGOHF said:
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.AndyJS said:I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
Remember the golden rule of Brexit...
Remember when they said No Deal was just Project Fear?
Or David Davis was going to sort out an Anglo-German trade deal just like that?0 -
If this all ends with Mr Speaker changing the rules so that backbenchers can start to promote new legislation, then May's best remaining weapon is to resign as Prime Minister - triggering the two-week countdown under the FTPA. Tory pro-EU MPs would then effectively be forced to cross the floor (whether to vote to put Corbyn into bat, or to attempt to form some kind of National Government headed by a Labour backbencher,) or else submit to a General Election which would chew up virtually all of the remaining time between now and March 29th, and campaign under a manifesto supporting the Deal to boot.RochdalePioneers said:
No, they'll ask May what's next. She has to find something the Commons will vote for by Monday, or she loses control even of the business of the house. They'll vote to block no deal, which means she's left with agreeing to things she's been against forever, or to go for an election, or to revoke.Slackbladder said:I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?
Under those circumstances, I'm guessing that there are enough Tory Hard Remainers who are sufficiently desperate to scupper Brexit that they'd resign the whip and vote a Labour-led Government into office, so the Conservatives would end up going into Opposition.0 -
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solutionMaxPB said:
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined0 -
This is a surreal night, I'm agreeing with Justin on something.justin124 said:
I bet they won't!Ave_it said:A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.0 -
Indeed. And our game-playing Parliament (and Speaker) will now be on the hook to get the blame.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)0 -
While I appreciate TMay could just be can-kicking and has no intention of finding a new consensus, her words (senior parliamentarians, all sides of the House - NB not “other party leaders”) suggested to me she’ll go behind Corbyn’s back and see what sort of Norway/BINO she might get the Labour grown-ups behind.0
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Why even bother with a debate?rottenborough said:0 -
Don’t be daft.MaxPB said:
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solutionMaxPB said:
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined0 -
Mrs JackW's shoe fund has emerged from the BREXIT vote with a few extra pennies in the coffers, so all is not lost ....0
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OK, biting my lip, it's 14 days between the VONC and VOC. If no VOC, the Queen announces the dissolution of parliament, there's an indefinite wash up period, then Parliament dissolves on the 25th working day before the polling day. So if VONC passes tomorrow (and it won't), then it's 14 days grace + indeterminate number of days for the washup, then 25 working days to the election. So that's a minimum of seven weeks, assuming no wash up. It's January 15th now. seven weeks before Thursday March 28th is February 7th. It could be done, but it's tight.viewcode said:
It's not in PPERA 2000. Let me try FTPA.viewcode said:
Give me a minute to read up.Richard_Tyndall said:
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?viewcode said:
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the electionydoethur said:
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.tlg86 said:Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
Can somebody backcheck me in this please? It's FTPA 2011 section 3 as amended by Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/3
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/6/section/140 -
Isobel Oakeshott is a loathsome woman and a non-journalist who shops her sources.
But, she is right about the soft Brexit direction.0 -
The amendment to the finance bill, the three day turnaround. Supported by the traitors like Grieve in our party and aided by the useful idiot Bercow.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
The EU doesn't want a good deal for the Uk - its taking longer to sink in than it is to Labour voters that Jezza aint a Remainer.Casino_Royale said:
Juncker was elected on a mandate to renegotiate and settle the British question.viewcode said:
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.Casino_Royale said:williamglenn said:
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
He totally failed to do so. He should have resigned when David Cameron did. The fact he didn’t tells you everything you need to know about the EU.0 -
70 odd days until we're allowed to set fire to the houses of Leavers for getting the UK into this mess.
Oh happy days.0 -
If she does that the Conservative party will be destroyed and fracture , she will lose the membershipBig_G_NorthWales said:
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solutionMaxPB said:
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.IanB2 said:
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.MaxPB said:
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.TheScreamingEagles said:So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
, she said tonight that we can make a success of no deal, so I don’t think a GNU will be where she goes with this0 -
I am glad the deal was defeated but it’s still a cataclysmic failure for British parliamentary democracy. The fact that Brexit will continue to dominate the political agenda because we can’t move forward when there are so many other pressing issues is disgraceful.0
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Yep - does that screw up Barnier's chances of taking over from Junker next time ?Philip_Thompson said:
Obviously. You can't alienated and screw over people just because you think you can.Big_G_NorthWales said:In all of this it is also a failure of Barnier and Junckers and the EU
Good for Parliament for standing up to Barnier.0 -
Advantage of moving house and temporarily needing storage is there is plenty of space for bulk orders of capers and linguine.rottenborough said:Glad I am stockpiling food. Another bulky delivery due Thursday.
Unfortunately doesn't deal with the medicines issue.0 -
But you need the WD to get to EEA. We can not get to EEA on March 29th.Harris_Tweed said:While I appreciate TMay could just be can-kicking and has no intention of finding a new consensus, her words (senior parliamentarians, all sides of the House - NB not “other party leaders”) suggested to me she’ll go behind Corbyn’s back and see what sort of Norway/BINO she might get the Labour grown-ups behind.
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