So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.
Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.
I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?
No, they'll ask May what's next. She has to find something the Commons will vote for by Monday, or she loses control even of the business of the house. They'll vote to block no deal, which means she's left with agreeing to things she's been against forever, or to go for an election, or to revoke.
What's going to be really funny are interview after interview after interview with Tory MPs. "You are a leave supporter. You voted against leaving the EU. You then voted confidence in May but stand here saying you will again vote against leaving the EU if she puts it to the vote so that you can you claim reach you preferred goal of leaving the EU. Are you congenitally insane or merely drunk?
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.
No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.
Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.
Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.
Wonder if it would actually win many Labour votes
Corbyn would find some other reason not to vote for it - that there was a Jew on the negotiating team, or that one of the Europeans was a posho pretending to be working class, or that they made a crude reference to Stalin.
Around 2/3rds of backbenchers voted No. Absolute SHOCKER.
How can she stay?
She can stay for precisely as long as she can command a Parliamentary majority, i.e. until one wing or the other of the Tory party breaks ranks and slings her out (the DUP will stay on side unless or until the Deal passes, of course - which looks less than certain at the moment...)
The ERG wing can sit tight and allow the clock to run down, so unless Parliament does a 180-degree volte face and backs the Withdrawal Agreement then it's all down to the Tory pro-EU wing. If they back the Prime Minister but won't vote for her Deal then Hard Brexit is guaranteed.
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
No, it isn't legally. She'd have 14 days to win a further confidence vote, else Parliament would be dissolved.
Presumably, if she lost it'd be down to the DUP, and there may be an offer she could make, using other people's money.
Even under the old rules, Prime Ministers only had to resign with some promptness. Jim Callaghan took eight days.
No, he took eight days to call an election. He didn't resign until he had lost the election. So it was a little over 5 weeks from losing the VONC to resigning.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?
Yes, your pet project is a fucking bore.
At last you have seen the light.
Brexit is a destination not a journey.
You would love to nationalise the railways, the banks and TV channels - but you wouldn't want the process to last 3 years.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
25 working days, I believe. And the Prime Minister gets to choose the date, so she could put it off for longer if she were so minded.
If the minimum period is observed then there would be just about enough time to hold an election and for a new Government to be formed before March 29th. Assuming that there wasn't another Hung Parliament, followed by a lengthy period of flapping trying to sort out a majority, of course...
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
May was responsible for the stupid red lines because she is utterly paranoid about immigrants. That made any sensible deal likely to be supported by Remain supporters impossible.
I suppose, given that everyone's already knocking about the place for the massive vote and we're ahead of schedule having ditched most of the amendments, it'd be far too easy to just actually have the confidence vote right now and inject a bit of urgency into all this.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
The only privately-owned station on the National Rail network.
(factoid of the day for you guys!)
I learn something new every day, thank you.
Hmmm... Might need to belay that factoid: a company Chester-le-Track owns the station, but it seems they may have ceased trading in March last year, depending on your Googling skills!
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
May was responsible for the stupid red lines because she is utterly paranoid about immigrants. That made any sensible deal likely to be supported by Remain supporters impossible.
Being in the single market also makes Britain subject to the ECJ and EU laws and regs. Not as simple as hating immigration.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
Give me a minute to read up.
25 working days, i.e. 5 weeks between dissolution and election day. Dissolution would be at HM's pleasure upon advice from whoever is PM at the end of the 14 day period.
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
Yes, I think we would have lost by fewer votes had we just gone ahead a month ago and there wouldn't have been all of these ill conceived amendments to contend with from the traitor wing of our party.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
Juncker was elected on a mandate to renegotiate and settle the British question.
He totally failed to do so. He should have resigned when David Cameron did. The fact he didn’t tells you everything you need to know about the EU.
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
Exactly. All the Eurosceptics who campaigned for Leave and are now calling Brexiteer MPs idiots for not backing this deal need to look in the mirror.
So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?
The British public which is utterly bored of Brexit ?
Yes, your pet project is a fucking bore.
At last you have seen the light.
Brexit is a destination not a journey.
You would love to nationalise the railways, the banks and TV channels - but you wouldn't want the process to last 3 years.
Wrong again. I would nationalise the railways only and would fully expect it to take up to 10 years as the franchises came up.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
The flaw in your argument is the hyperbolic "...traitors in the party would be strung up before that". No, they literally wouldn't. Thankfully.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
Yes, I think we would have lost by fewer votes had we just gone ahead a month ago and there wouldn't have been all of these ill conceived amendments to contend with from the traitor wing of our party.
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
What rot.
Remember the golden rule of Brexit...
Leavers are full of shit?
Remember when they said No Deal was just Project Fear?
Or David Davis was going to sort out an Anglo-German trade deal just like that?
I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?
No, they'll ask May what's next. She has to find something the Commons will vote for by Monday, or she loses control even of the business of the house. They'll vote to block no deal, which means she's left with agreeing to things she's been against forever, or to go for an election, or to revoke.
If this all ends with Mr Speaker changing the rules so that backbenchers can start to promote new legislation, then May's best remaining weapon is to resign as Prime Minister - triggering the two-week countdown under the FTPA. Tory pro-EU MPs would then effectively be forced to cross the floor (whether to vote to put Corbyn into bat, or to attempt to form some kind of National Government headed by a Labour backbencher,) or else submit to a General Election which would chew up virtually all of the remaining time between now and March 29th, and campaign under a manifesto supporting the Deal to boot.
Under those circumstances, I'm guessing that there are enough Tory Hard Remainers who are sufficiently desperate to scupper Brexit that they'd resign the whip and vote a Labour-led Government into office, so the Conservatives would end up going into Opposition.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.
A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
I bet they won't!
This is a surreal night, I'm agreeing with Justin on something.
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.
While I appreciate TMay could just be can-kicking and has no intention of finding a new consensus, her words (senior parliamentarians, all sides of the House - NB not “other party leaders”) suggested to me she’ll go behind Corbyn’s back and see what sort of Norway/BINO she might get the Labour grown-ups behind.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
Give me a minute to read up.
It's not in PPERA 2000. Let me try FTPA.
OK, biting my lip, it's 14 days between the VONC and VOC. If no VOC, the Queen announces the dissolution of parliament, there's an indefinite wash up period, then Parliament dissolves on the 25th working day before the polling day. So if VONC passes tomorrow (and it won't), then it's 14 days grace + indeterminate number of days for the washup, then 25 working days to the election. So that's a minimum of seven weeks, assuming no wash up. It's January 15th now. seven weeks before Thursday March 28th is February 7th. It could be done, but it's tight.
Can somebody backcheck me in this please? It's FTPA 2011 section 3 as amended by Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
Yes, I think we would have lost by fewer votes had we just gone ahead a month ago and there wouldn't have been all of these ill conceived amendments to contend with from the traitor wing of our party.
Which amendments
The amendment to the finance bill, the three day turnaround. Supported by the traitors like Grieve in our party and aided by the useful idiot Bercow.
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
Juncker was elected on a mandate to renegotiate and settle the British question.
He totally failed to do so. He should have resigned when David Cameron did. The fact he didn’t tells you everything you need to know about the EU.
The EU doesn't want a good deal for the Uk - its taking longer to sink in than it is to Labour voters that Jezza aint a Remainer.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
If she does that the Conservative party will be destroyed and fracture , she will lose the membership , she said tonight that we can make a success of no deal, so I don’t think a GNU will be where she goes with this
I am glad the deal was defeated but it’s still a cataclysmic failure for British parliamentary democracy. The fact that Brexit will continue to dominate the political agenda because we can’t move forward when there are so many other pressing issues is disgraceful.
While I appreciate TMay could just be can-kicking and has no intention of finding a new consensus, her words (senior parliamentarians, all sides of the House - NB not “other party leaders”) suggested to me she’ll go behind Corbyn’s back and see what sort of Norway/BINO she might get the Labour grown-ups behind.
But you need the WD to get to EEA. We can not get to EEA on March 29th.
Comments
Joff is wrong.
Cross party consensus is the new line.
Softer Brexit.
And Frank Field.
What's going to be really funny are interview after interview after interview with Tory MPs. "You are a leave supporter. You voted against leaving the EU. You then voted confidence in May but stand here saying you will again vote against leaving the EU if she puts it to the vote so that you can you claim reach you preferred goal of leaving the EU. Are you congenitally insane or merely drunk?
The ERG wing can sit tight and allow the clock to run down, so unless Parliament does a 180-degree volte face and backs the Withdrawal Agreement then it's all down to the Tory pro-EU wing. If they back the Prime Minister but won't vote for her Deal then Hard Brexit is guaranteed.
At last you have seen the light.
You would love to nationalise the railways, the banks and TV channels - but you wouldn't want the process to last 3 years.
If the minimum period is observed then there would be just about enough time to hold an election and for a new Government to be formed before March 29th. Assuming that there wasn't another Hung Parliament, followed by a lengthy period of flapping trying to sort out a majority, of course...
Easy Government win.
Unfortunately doesn't deal with the medicines issue.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
http://www.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1085265415373275136
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Remember the golden rule of Brexit...
He totally failed to do so. He should have resigned when David Cameron did. The fact he didn’t tells you everything you need to know about the EU.
Unless Sinn Fein turn up on the 9am Belfast shuttle.
Extension of A50 and second referendum 35% (+20%)
Good for Parliament for standing up to Barnier.
Remember when they said No Deal was just Project Fear?
Or David Davis was going to sort out an Anglo-German trade deal just like that?
Under those circumstances, I'm guessing that there are enough Tory Hard Remainers who are sufficiently desperate to scupper Brexit that they'd resign the whip and vote a Labour-led Government into office, so the Conservatives would end up going into Opposition.
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.
Can somebody backcheck me in this please? It's FTPA 2011 section 3 as amended by Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/3
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/6/section/14
But, she is right about the soft Brexit direction.
Oh happy days.
, she said tonight that we can make a success of no deal, so I don’t think a GNU will be where she goes with this