Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP..
The SNP will never support anything unless it has Sindy Ref 2 nailed onto it. Forget it.
Well, I stood by May's Deal. I feel I have done all I could.
I am now going diamond-hard No Deal Brexit. And flying an anarchist black flag from the house. Fuck 'em.
I was outside Parliament where there was the odd situation of protestor and counter protestor both cheering the result .... But very different takes on it obviously
Anecdote alert - I know one previous non voter who, after voting for the first time ever in the referendum and then the GE, now says they'll never vote again because what is the point the Commons will just do what it always wanted.
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
But "top Brussels figures" have no power to stop us revoking Article 50 and then re-invoking (effectively a 2-year extension).
And the "People's Vote lot" can call themselves realists all they want, but they still don't seem to have a plan of how to actually win a referendum, except re-running the playbook from last time with added helpings of "LOL can you believe what idiots you were to vote for Brexit last time".
The same playbook can work in different circumstances. And if we can assume a vote would bemade binding or actually be followed through on (a big if, since don't make me laugh that they would not fight a leave situation again), it is true that a referendum, unlike a GE for instance, has a better chance of reaching an outcome.
Some debate in Twitter around what might happen in they lose VONC.
Some think Jezza gets first shot, but others apparently arguing Cons get another go to appoint a "proper Brexiteer"
Maybe some of the headbangers will VONC on that basis?
I actually think anyone can call the Palace and say "Hello, I can form a Government which can win a vote of confidence. Could I have an audience with her Maj, please?"
In reality, if you or I did, they'd hang up because it's plainly absurd. If Jezza or Bozza did, the Palace would want a serious word about why they feel they are in a position to make that claim.
But it isn't about "first shot" - May is PM until someone else can form a Government (whether before a General Election or after), or she resigns.
I very much doubt Tory headbangers would "no confidence" in the vain hope Bozza (or whoever) would then form a Government within 14 days. Unless, amazingly, your Anna Soubrys and so on indicate they are onside without a Tory leadership contest (which can't happen inside 14 days really) it's just not realistic this side of a General Election.
How long would it take in an emergency (such as the clock ticking under the 14 days in the FTPA) for the Conservatives to change their rules to allow them to force out a leader who refused to resign?
Anecdote alert - I know one previous non voter who, after voting for the first time ever in the referendum and then the GE, now says they'll never vote again because what is the point the Commons will just do what it always wanted.
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
And a really bad sign for democracy.
Not the priority right now (unless you count changing policy when polls shift democracy, as some do)
Glad I am stockpiling food. Another bulky delivery due Thursday.
Unfortunately doesn't deal with the medicines issue.
Advantage of moving house and temporarily needing storage is there is plenty of space for bulk orders of capers and linguine.
Yeh Gads, I hadn't thought of capers.
I will have to add to the order.
I think the secret for Brexit stockpiling is assuming that Hard Brexit is going to be highly annoying not cataclysmic. You can't prepare for the end of the world but you can prepare for certain things becoming harslder/more expensive to get.
I'm basically on a no loose bet with the stockpiling. I would get through these capers/olives/... etc anyways over the next 6 months. Bulk buying them now when I have the storage anyways is saving money.
And I really love Puttanesca.
Happy to receive an invite to an Easter puttanesca party!
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
Great letter in today's Guardian from a Nancy Krois using the Titanic as an analogy:
"...The Brexiters trying to steer us towards a no-deal endpoint have always known the lifeboats were reserved for those in first class. The rest of us in steerage will, most likely, go down with the ship."
Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Cash, Jenkin, Davis, Barclay etc.will all be immune from the adverse effects of No Deal, safely tucked up in their financial lifeboats.
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
The irony is that the Brexiteers have defeated a fairly hard deal and we will end up with something much more soft. Norway would be my choice.
Theresa May now has to choose. Does she go in search of the legal addendum that has been so far elusive. Or does she pivot to back a full Customs Union with the EU. The former risks failure & a no deal Brexit. The latter risks splitting the Tory Party. Hence, she'll choose former
Theresa May now has to choose. Does she go in search of the legal addendum that has been so far elusive. Or does she pivot to back a full Customs Union with the EU. The former risks failure & a no deal Brexit. The latter risks splitting the Tory Party. Hence, she'll choose former
She'll presumably try, for the reason you suggest. But she already bloody tried it many times. Either you do a Brexit on Labour's terms or we won't brexit at all now.
Some debate in Twitter around what might happen in they lose VONC.
Some think Jezza gets first shot, but others apparently arguing Cons get another go to appoint a "proper Brexiteer"
Maybe some of the headbangers will VONC on that basis?
FTPA does give the government a shot at forming a new government that can command a majority of the house I think?
If they can't command a majority then Jezza gets a go. If he can't form a majority (which he can't) then we have a general election.
As best as I understand it, there's a big free for all until it becomes obvious that somebody has the numbers. Only then does the sitting PM, if it isn't them of course, go to the Queen to resign and recommend that the person with the backing is called. The new PM then goes back to the Commons and has to win a VoNC.
If nobody other than the defeated PM can get a majority within the specified 14 day period then they stay in office as a caretaker over the ensuing General Election period.
Word of warning to Leavers - judging from the numbers and motivation out on the the green today, I'm not sure that you won. The Remainers looked waaaay more energised and organised. Obviously a proportion of those who were there might be nothing more than twitter warriors, but there were also people prepared to stick some serious work in. If this goes to a second ref then they'd surely be favourites.
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
May was responsible for the stupid red lines because she is utterly paranoid about immigrants. That made any sensible deal likely to be supported by Remain supporters impossible.
Being in the single market also makes Britain subject to the ECJ ...[snip]
How long would it take in an emergency (such as the clock ticking under the 14 days in the FTPA) for the Conservatives to change their rules to allow them to force out a leader who refused to resign?
Why should she resign? In December she carried the confidence of the Party and tomorrow she will carry the confidence of the House. She is perfectly secure. To sit in the big chair pretending to be a prime minister as the same people who will have twice voted confidence in her will continue to vote against literally anything she proposes.
Kept saying so at the time. One, we would have got a better deal and two, it would have been a national effort that Labour would have found it difficult to repudiate. Not involving others up to and including DexEU was one of May's major failings.
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
If May does have 200 votes in the bag whatever, I suspect any of Norway, a referendum or a permanent customs union would attract enough Labour MPs to get her over the line.
How many of the cabinet will be thinking about having a quiet word withTM tonight and asking her to step down.
What does her resigning solve?
The Tories would choose a Brexit leader, and in so doing lose their remainer wing. Thereby, an anti-Brexit majority would form in the Commons that reflects the current state of opinion in the country.
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
It requires the EU to play ball. They won't. They know that if they offer nothing new of substance there is no parliamentary majority for leaving and our MPs will do what they have wanted all along and deliver Remain.
Kept saying so at the time. One, we would have got a better deal and two, it would have been a national effort that Labour would have found it difficult to repudiate. Not involving others up to and including DexEU was one of May's major failings.
There was too big a risk Brexit would have been delivered if she'd done that.
But "top Brussels figures" have no power to stop us revoking Article 50 and then re-invoking (effectively a 2-year extension).
To what end though? The EU will refuse to renegotiate because we're taking the piss, and 21 months from now we're in an identical situation.
All they would have to do is re-present The May Deal and say "Take it or leave it" and then we are back in the same position - it is just a silly form of Remaining.
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
May was responsible for the stupid red lines because she is utterly paranoid about immigrants. That made any sensible deal likely to be supported by Remain supporters impossible.
Being in the single market also makes Britain subject to the ECJ ...[snip]
Are you sure?
Yes. The CJEU is the ultimate arbiter of the rules of the Single Market.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
I would caution against anything Fox "predicts": better Mystic Meg than Fantasist Fox.
If it was only Fox I might agree. Unfortunately it's just about anyone who expresses an option on the subject.
Incidentally who is funding this irritating* People's Vote Again Till You Do What We Tell You outfit? The Leavers were louder per capita even if they were totally outnumbered, but the Remainers had the sound system. And the giant video screens. And the professionally produced graphics. And films.
When they did the "we demand a people's vote" chant, I did feel like shouting back "you've already had one, and who won that one?" but without a microphone who'd hear you?
* they irritate me therefore they irritate at least one person ergo by dictionary definition they are irritating, no offence to those involved intended (genuinely admire the work they put in, if not the cause it is directed towards) but am pretty sure the whole disingenuity of it all, from the name down, would irritate me still if I was a Remainer.
Theresa May now has to choose. Does she go in search of the legal addendum that has been so far elusive. Or does she pivot to back a full Customs Union with the EU. The former risks failure & a no deal Brexit. The latter risks splitting the Tory Party. Hence, she'll choose former
She'll presumably try, for the reason you suggest. But she already bloody tried it many times. Either you do a Brexit on Labour's terms or we won't brexit at all now.
Third option: she won't budge and a majority in Parliament for anything else proves elusive. MPs are then either forced to U-turn and accept the Withdrawal Agreement, or Hard Brexit occurs by default.
I think that the balance of forces in Parliament will probably shift against May in the end and we'll get either referendum or revocation, but that's a very long way from being a certainty.
She seemed to think she would face a leadership challenge once it was lost, and that by pulling the vote she'd avoid it.
And her move worked pretty well, didn't it? The Brexiteers got all excited and went off early, creating a terrible, sticky mess all over themselves. Now they can't work their way up to another round until next Xmas.
If they'd waited, they'd be in a better position now. If I was a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd ask whether Graham Brady's 48th letter had a Maidenhead postmark!
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.
To be honest, you’re better off in UKIP given your constant cries of treachery and betrayal.
The Tories will be on 10% if May tries to kill brexit with Labour help. We'd be done as a political force, for good.
Honestly, you aren't a member so kindly fuck off.
Actually, you can. Your breed of nuttery just lost big time.
It won't end his leadership. The rest is true, but having reluctantly done what the party wants he'll be fine.
What if he doesn't?
I don't believe he will hold firm. The party is begging him to do it, and given the Tories' situation he could be PM in a few months. He's not throwing that away, not now. He's not the same person who sat on the backbenches for 30 years. He's had years to get close to power.
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
Oh sure, but she would no longer be leader of the Conservative Party whilst bringing them to the vote
She seemed to think she would face a leadership challenge once it was lost, and that by pulling the vote she'd avoid it.
And her move worked pretty well, didn't it? The Brexiteers got all excited and went off early, creating a terrible, sticky mess all over themselves. Now they can't work their way up to another round until next Xmas.
If they'd waited, they'd be in a better position now. If I was a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd ask whether Graham Brady's 48th letter had a Maidenhead postmark!
Wouldn't have counted. Or rather, would have been treated as a resignation.
Word of warning to Leavers - judging from the numbers and motivation out on the the green today, I'm not sure that you won. The Remainers looked waaaay more energised and organised. Obviously a proportion of those who were there might be nothing more than twitter warriors, but there were also people prepared to stick some serious work in. If this goes to a second ref then they'd surely be favourites.
People thought that about the 2016 referendum with the Gov backing Remain. That didn’t work out so well did it
It won't end his leadership. The rest is true, but having reluctantly done what the party wants he'll be fine.
Well, if that chain of events ended with JC equivocating in another referendum campaign and Remain losing for a second time, then he might be on a bit of a sticky wicket. Failing that I suspect that you're right, he'd be fine.
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
If May does have 200 votes in the bag whatever, I suspect any of Norway, a referendum or a permanent customs union would attract enough Labour MPs to get her over the line.
I don't. Labour want to take power. Why would they vote with her?
It served the purpose of flushing out the challenge to May's leadership. That with hindsight is the most significant consequence of the delay.
Had she lost even by a lot less than 230 in December, I think she would have lost a challenge to her leadership immediately afterwards. Now it is in her own hands.
It won't end his leadership. The rest is true, but having reluctantly done what the party wants he'll be fine.
What if he doesn't?
I don't believe he will hold firm. The party is begging him to do it, and given the Tories' situation he could be PM in a few months. He's not throwing that away, not now. He's not the same person who sat on the backbenches for 30 years. He's had years to get close to power.
To be honest you have been consistent in your view that Corbyn will move on a referendum but there is no evidence he or his inner circle will and indeed many of his mps in leave seats are vocally opposed to it
It served the purpose of flushing out the challenge to May's leadership. That with hindsight is the most significant consequence of the delay.
Had she lost even by a lot less than 230 in December, I think she would have lost a challenge to her leadership immediately afterwards. Now it is in her own hands.
Oh, how comforting. Because she will totally be able to do anything right now.
It won't end his leadership. The rest is true, but having reluctantly done what the party wants he'll be fine.
What if he doesn't?
I don't believe he will hold firm. The party is begging him to do it, and given the Tories' situation he could be PM in a few months. He's not throwing that away, not now. He's not the same person who sat on the backbenches for 30 years. He's had years to get close to power.
Plus he has shown he can flex on his principles when he absolutely needs to - e.g. Trident. Power to implement socialist reforms is what he craves.
It won't end his leadership. The rest is true, but having reluctantly done what the party wants he'll be fine.
What if he doesn't?
I don't believe he will hold firm. The party is begging him to do it, and given the Tories' situation he could be PM in a few months. He's not throwing that away, not now. He's not the same person who sat on the backbenches for 30 years. He's had years to get close to power.
To be honest you have been consistent in your view that Corbyn will move on a referendum but there is no evidence he or his inner circle will and indeed many of his mps in leave seats are vocally opposed to it
And May has been consistent that it is her way or nothing, but she's going to come up with a plan B now isn't she?
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
If May does have 200 votes in the bag whatever, I suspect any of Norway, a referendum or a permanent customs union would attract enough Labour MPs to get her over the line.
I don't. Labour want to take power. Why would they vote with her?
Labour would back a permanent customs union because that is its policy. There would be plenty of rebels ready to back the other two.
Kept saying so at the time. One, we would have got a better deal and two, it would have been a national effort that Labour would have found it difficult to repudiate. Not involving others up to and including DexEU was one of May's major failings.
Agreed. Mandy is one of the very best in the business.
I'm struggling to think of any good legislation that Cameron introduced.
I'm struggling to see how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act has much to do with it.
Pre-2013 we're in the same position except that the period between loss of a confidence motion and an election (or new confidence motion) was of indeterminate length.
The position on the Government losing a big vote like this, but without a motion of no confidence being passed (which seems the likely outcome here), is identical. A Government which can survive a motion of confidence can stagger on to the five year mark exactly as it could pre-2013.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
I would caution against anything Fox "predicts": better Mystic Meg than Fantasist Fox.
If it was only Fox I might agree. Unfortunately it's just about anyone who expresses an option on the subject.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
Great letter in today's Guardian from a Nancy Krois using the Titanic as an analogy:
"...The Brexiters trying to steer us towards a no-deal endpoint have always known the lifeboats were reserved for those in first class. The rest of us in steerage will, most likely, go down with the ship."
Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Cash, Jenkin, Davis, Barclay etc.will all be immune from the adverse effects of No Deal, safely tucked up in their financial lifeboats.
Lots of talk of VONC and elections but let’s be honest it is not a runner.
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
It requires the EU to play ball. They won't. They know that if they offer nothing new of substance there is no parliamentary majority for leaving and our MPs will do what they have wanted all along and deliver Remain.
From here for the EU either Norway or a permanent customs union would be a better bet than a totally divided UK remaining a member stats.
It won't end his leadership. The rest is true, but having reluctantly done what the party wants he'll be fine.
What if he doesn't?
I don't believe he will hold firm. The party is begging him to do it, and given the Tories' situation he could be PM in a few months. He's not throwing that away, not now. He's not the same person who sat on the backbenches for 30 years. He's had years to get close to power.
To be honest you have been consistent in your view that Corbyn will move on a referendum but there is no evidence he or his inner circle will and indeed many of his mps in leave seats are vocally opposed to it
And May has been consistent that it is her way or nothing, but she's going to come up with a plan B now isn't she?
Comments
What have we learned tonight?
First, May’s Deal is off the table absolutely. The scale of defeat is literally unprecedented, and no fudging to the political wording of the Deal is going to save it.
Second, May is not going to run down the clock. She has rightly recognised that as an utterly irresponsible course of action.
Third, she has committed to finding a form of Brexit which Parliament can agree upon.
Others have a better read on both the maths and the leaning of MPs than me. However, let us assume she can rely on 200 votes, and further there is no way now to access the votes of 70 ERGers.
She needs to find another 120 votes for a majority. However she will also need to find something which is not total anathema to her Party.
To me, that implies a preference order of Norway, then a 2nd referendum, then a permanent customs union.
I think each of these potentially have the numbers.
In reality, if you or I did, they'd hang up because it's plainly absurd. If Jezza or Bozza did, the Palace would want a serious word about why they feel they are in a position to make that claim.
But it isn't about "first shot" - May is PM until someone else can form a Government (whether before a General Election or after), or she resigns.
I very much doubt Tory headbangers would "no confidence" in the vain hope Bozza (or whoever) would then form a Government within 14 days. Unless, amazingly, your Anna Soubrys and so on indicate they are onside without a Tory leadership contest (which can't happen inside 14 days really) it's just not realistic this side of a General Election.
Something has to change. We can't continue with nothing has changed. Let's start with changing her.
the FTPA) for the Conservatives to change their rules to allow them to force out a leader who refused to resign?
Surprisingly difficult to find it spelled out.
This New Statesman article says it was whipped, but not that it was a three line whip:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/01/labour-mps-who-will-vote-theresa-may-s-brexit-deal
"...The Brexiters trying to steer us towards a no-deal endpoint have always known the lifeboats were reserved for those in first class. The rest of us in steerage will, most likely, go down with the ship."
Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Cash, Jenkin, Davis, Barclay etc.will all be immune from the adverse effects of No Deal, safely tucked up in their financial lifeboats.
Class act.
Should have got him to sort it.
If nobody other than the defeated PM can get a majority within the specified 14 day period then they stay in office as a caretaker over the ensuing General Election period.
Not sure he's right or wrong, but he is an MP that continues to give me a degree of confidence in their tribe.
(Cable's about to appear on TV, so I may need to slit my wrists about the future of the human race shortly mind you)
ironically this changes nothing for my Industry - the planning was done on basis of no deal.
When they did the "we demand a people's vote" chant, I did feel like shouting back "you've already had one, and who won that one?" but without a microphone who'd hear you?
* they irritate me therefore they irritate at least one person ergo by dictionary definition they are irritating, no offence to those involved intended (genuinely admire the work they put in, if not the cause it is directed towards) but am pretty sure the whole disingenuity of it all, from the name down, would irritate me still if I was a Remainer.
I think that the balance of forces in Parliament will probably shift against May in the end and we'll get either referendum or revocation, but that's a very long way from being a certainty.
If they'd waited, they'd be in a better position now. If I was a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd ask whether Graham Brady's 48th letter had a Maidenhead postmark!
1. A new PM.
2. A new Con leader.
3. A LOTO
4. A new Lib-Dem leader
5. A new Speaker
Only another 644 new MPs to go.
Not happening any time soon.
Had she lost even by a lot less than 230 in December, I think she would have lost a challenge to her leadership immediately afterwards. Now it is in her own hands.
https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1085261674389663744
Pre-2013 we're in the same position except that the period between loss of a confidence motion and an election (or new confidence motion) was of indeterminate length.
The position on the Government losing a big vote like this, but without a motion of no confidence being passed (which seems the likely outcome here), is identical. A Government which can survive a motion of confidence can stagger on to the five year mark exactly as it could pre-2013.
I keep forgetting about the total dearth of Parliamentary brains.