A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
I bet they won't!
This is a surreal night, I'm agreeing with Justin on something.
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.
There's zero chance of Frank Field voting with the government on a VONC.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
Juncker was elected on a mandate to renegotiate and settle the British question.
He totally failed to do so. He should have resigned when David Cameron did. The fact he didn’t tells you everything you need to know about the EU.
Bizarrely (apart from your last sentence, and I'm wavering on that) I agree with you: he is terrible
A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
I bet they won't!
This is a surreal night, I'm agreeing with Justin on something.
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.
There's zero chance of Frank Field voting with the government on a VONC.
I don't know. It would epically piss off Jeremy Corbyn. Which given his vote is unlikely to be decisive might just be a reason for him to do it.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
I bet they won't!
This is a surreal night, I'm agreeing with Justin on something.
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.
There's zero chance of Frank Field voting with the government on a VONC.
He could abstain. It isn't in his personal interest to lose his job in a quick GE.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
25 working days, I believe. And the Prime Minister gets to choose the date, so she could put it off for longer if she were so minded.
If the minimum period is observed then there would be just about enough time to hold an election and for a new Government to be formed before March 29th. Assuming that there wasn't another Hung Parliament, followed by a lengthy period of flapping trying to sort out a majority, of course...
So if May is really a secret No Deal fanatic (And this is just for fun as I don't believe she is) then she holds off until.9th February and then concedes a VONC. In the following 14 days she fails to form a government after which Parliament is dissolved for a GE and can no longer stop No Deal.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
A deal agreed by Parliament 65% (-20%)
Extension of A50 and second referendum 35% (+20%)
I'd say more like :
Extension/revocation 90% Deal 5% No deal 5%
I also can't see a national government of any kind - a few Tories might go for it but any Labour MP who joined in government with any Tory would be a latter day Ramsay MacDonald and their careers would be finished
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP..
The SNP will never support anything unless it has Sindy Ref 2 nailed onto it. Forget it.
Well, at least some people are finally noticing what is going on. As the 'political nerd' I've already had several texts from colleagues asking what i think will happen next and what they think (everyone thinks an election is coming soon).
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
25 working days, I believe. And the Prime Minister gets to choose the date, so she could put it off for longer if she were so minded.
If the minimum period is observed then there would be just about enough time to hold an election and for a new Government to be formed before March 29th. Assuming that there wasn't another Hung Parliament, followed by a lengthy period of flapping trying to sort out a majority, of course...
So if May is really a secret No Deal fanatic (And this is just for fun as I don't believe she is) then she holds off until.9th February and then concedes a VONC. In the following 14 days she fails to form a government after which Parliament is dissolved for a GE and can no longer stop No Deal.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.
To be honest, you’re better off in UKIP given your constant cries of treachery and betrayal.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP..
The SNP will never support anything unless it has Sindy Ref 2 nailed onto it. Forget it.
He grew up under communism. Doesn’t understand that the people get to decide
I grew up in a democracy. I don't understand why the people shouldn't get to decide now.
Don't be daft. Unless you were angry that we have not had constant referendums on every big issue facing the country your fake not understanding why some won't want now rings very hollow, because 'the people' have very rarely decided things in that way. Should this be one of them? I reluctantly think so, but you lay it on so thick, and it is not credible.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Yes, there’s much talk now of a permanent customs union. Of course that leaves the intellectual case for Brexit (I use the phrase loosely) more or less redundant, but we are where we are.
A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!
I bet they won't!
This is a surreal night, I'm agreeing with Justin on something.
Any Labour MP who votes against the party whip on a confidence motion would be instantly deselected (rightly so) although I would not be surprised if Field voted with the government.
There's zero chance of Frank Field voting with the government on a VONC.
He could abstain. It isn't in his personal interest to lose his job in a quick GE.
Ditto Jared O’Mara, Fiona Onasanya and a few others...
He grew up under communism. Doesn’t understand that the people get to decide
I grew up in a democracy. I don't understand why the people shouldn't get to decide now.
No point in another referendum - we all now know that losers ignore the result and call for another one. Solves nothing.
I'm happy for us to go on having as many votes as you want. We know the article 50 mechanism is there and if people want to leave in the future, so be it.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
A deal agreed by Parliament 65% (-20%)
Extension of A50 and second referendum 35% (+20%)
I'd say more like :
Extension/revocation 90% Deal 5% No deal 5%
I also can't see a national government of any kind - a few Tories might go for it but any Labour MP who joined in government with any Tory would be a latter day Ramsay MacDonald and their careers would be finished
Is there a majority for extension ? And would the EU accept it if it was a rabble of backbenchers with no clear plan ?
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
If she does that the dup will no confidence the government
He grew up under communism. Doesn’t understand that the people get to decide
I grew up in a democracy. I don't understand why the people shouldn't get to decide now.
No point in another referendum - we all now know that losers ignore the result and call for another one. Solves nothing.
I'm happy for us to go on having as many votes as you want. We know the article 50 mechanism is there and if people want to leave in the future, so be it.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
Give me a minute to read up.
25 working days, i.e. 5 weeks between dissolution and election day. Dissolution would be at HM's pleasure upon advice from whoever is PM at the end of the 14 day period.
He grew up under communism. Doesn’t understand that the people get to decide
I grew up in a democracy. I don't understand why the people shouldn't get to decide now.
Don't be daft. Unless you were angry that we have not had constant referendums on every big issue facing the country your fake not understanding why some won't want now rings very hollow, because 'the people' have very rarely decided things in that way. Should this be one of them? I reluctantly think so, but you lay it on so thick, and it is not credible.
I was just responding to a fairly offensive comment from Charles.
Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.
I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.
I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election
If there is a GE what is the time scale for it. Is there a minimum number of days between dissolving Parliament and election day?
25 working days, I believe. And the Prime Minister gets to choose the date, so she could put it off for longer if she were so minded.
If the minimum period is observed then there would be just about enough time to hold an election and for a new Government to be formed before March 29th. Assuming that there wasn't another Hung Parliament, followed by a lengthy period of flapping trying to sort out a majority, of course...
So if May is really a secret No Deal fanatic (And this is just for fun as I don't believe she is) then she holds off until.9th February and then concedes a VONC. In the following 14 days she fails to form a government after which Parliament is dissolved for a GE and can no longer stop No Deal.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
If she does that it's the end of our party. I will never vote Conservative again and they will lose my membership and annual contribution.
To be honest, you’re better off in UKIP given your constant cries of treachery and betrayal.
The Tories will be on 10% if May tries to kill brexit with Labour help. We'd be done as a political force, for good.
70 odd days until we're allowed to set fire to the houses of Leavers for getting the UK into this mess.
Oh happy days.
The Remainers in Parliament have the votes to stop all of this at any time.
Most of them also voted for the Referendum Act, invoking Article 50, and the Withdrawal Act (in the case of the Referendum Act in particular, I believe that almost everyone who voted on the matter in the Commons voted to pass the legislation, except for the SNP.)
Questions:
1. If they are afraid of Brexit now, why don't they vote to stop it? 2. If they were afraid of Brexit then, why did they vote for it?
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
If she does that the dup will no confidence the government
If there was a general election soon I’m not sure who I could vote for.
I'm with you there. But I feel I really do have to vote when we have an election.
Tories? Don't make me laugh. Not for a long time. Labour? Not under Corbyn, although as incompetent as he is it is not as though it will be that much worse LDs? I guess maybe, but they don't want the votes of stinky leavers like me, they have made that very clear UKIP? No. Just, no. Greens? Ok, they're not the complete inverse of UKIP now UKIP have gone even more bonkers, but they're still unpalatable.
(No point in any comment - views are ten a penny. solutions none)
Happily I've cornered the market in false whiskers - if your cunning plan needs them then do contact Omnium PLC!
For what it's worth I have quite a lot of confidence in the PM, and I'd go out of my way to give Corbyn the most fervent battering I can, which under Met Police rules I believe equates to a strongly-worded letter to his mother.
I think May has to now resign. I don't think she should for a moment. She's been great. However great forces have conspired against her.
I can't see any sensible course at all should she do so. It'll be dark times. Happily that'll give me some cover to explain to Corbyn what I really think about him. (Just between us, I actually wouldn't hurt a soul, but I might set fire to their beards.)
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
Sorry to disappoint you. (I would have referred to him as the Clown Prince of Europe....)
I don't know why people are blaming Theresa May for this result, it would have been the same regardless of who was PM.
Other PMs would have clocked 18 months ago that Olly Robbins etc weren't bringing home an acceptable deal.
You do realise this deal lost because it was too Brexitty, don't you?
Once the dust settles in a few years time, the head bangers are going to find that Camerons deal was the most eurosceptic EU arrangement they could have had.
What rot.
Remember the golden rule of Brexit...
The Golden Rule of Brexit is you have been proved utterly wrong on all the big calls.
You said the MV will pass. “It’s gonna pass,” you wrote.
Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?
He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.
I knew somebody would say something like that (although my money was on @MarqueeMark, not you). Some people cannot abide anything the EU or its staff say, even if they would agree with it wholeheartedly if somebody else said it.
Sorry to disappoint you. (I would have referred to him as the Clown Prince of Europe....)
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
If she does that the dup will no confidence the government
And lose
Labour plus SNP plus DUP plus LD , I don’t think they will lose they have the numbers , corbyn wont decline the chance of a GE
Well, at least some people are finally noticing what is going on. As the 'political nerd' I've already had several texts from colleagues asking what i think will happen next and what they think (everyone thinks an election is coming soon).
Anecdote alert - I know one previous non voter who, after voting for the first time ever in the referendum and then the GE, now says they'll never vote again because what is the point the Commons will just do what it always wanted.
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
A deal agreed by Parliament 65% (-20%)
Extension of A50 and second referendum 35% (+20%)
I'd say more like :
Extension/revocation 90% Deal 5% No deal 5%
I also can't see a national government of any kind - a few Tories might go for it but any Labour MP who joined in government with any Tory would be a latter day Ramsay MacDonald and their careers would be finished
Is there a majority for extension ? And would the EU accept it if it was a rabble of backbenchers with no clear plan ?
Time the EU just told us to bugger off. We're more trouble than we are worth.
"Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, Leave."
Anecdote alert - I know one previous non voter who, after voting for the first time ever in the referendum and then the GE, now says they'll never vote again because what is the point the Commons will just do what it always wanted.
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
Well, at least some people are finally noticing what is going on. As the 'political nerd' I've already had several texts from colleagues asking what i think will happen next and what they think (everyone thinks an election is coming soon).
They're wrong. It's a recession.
Well I hope Prime Minister Corbyn has a plan for that.
If there was a general election soon I’m not sure who I could vote for.
I'm with you there. But I feel I really do have to vote when we have an election.
Tories? Don't make me laugh. Not for a long time. Labour? Not under Corbyn, although as incompetent as he is it is not as though it will be that much worse LDs? I guess maybe, but they don't want the votes of stinky leavers like me, they have made that very clear UKIP? No. Just, no. Greens? Ok, they're not the complete inverse of UKIP now UKIP have gone even more bonkers, but they're still unpalatable.
Nice to see you have finally caught up with me. I reached this point about a year ago.
Why? The default option is to leave without a deal on 29th March. This Parliament is incapable to agreeing anything so No Deal on 29th March looks ever more likely to me...
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
If she does that the dup will no confidence the government
And lose
Labour plus SNP plus DUP plus LD , I don’t think they will lose they have the numbers , corbyn wont decline the chance of a GE
You seem to miss the point that the SNP and many labour mps support Norway plus a good part of the party. It is possible labour will split by the end of the week unless Corbyn, after losing the vonc, refuses a second referendum
He grew up under communism. Doesn’t understand that the people get to decide
I grew up in a democracy. I don't understand why the people shouldn't get to decide now.
You live in a representative democracy. You and your constituents elect an MP to represent your constituency and a t on its behalf. You don’t live in a direct democracy.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
There has been a dire lack of planning, however the ERG owns no deal.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
You need to go back and listen again to Cox's speech, with May nodding along throughout. There is no way the government could allow no deal after that.
In all of this it is also a failure of Barnier and Junckers and the EU
Not at all. Barnier, Junckers et al look very close to succeeding in their steadfast quest to prevent the UK from leaving.
The EU have ensured that they have offered diddly squat in negotiations and taken away all our cards for subsequent rounds while at the same time undermining the UK's territorial integrity, so that the only offer on the table never stood an earthly of getting through parliament.
They have correctly realised that neither the PM nor parliament would ever seriously allow the one outcome that they feared, namely that the UK would leave on WTO terms on 29th March and thus take the question of the UK remaining off the table before trade talks started in earnest. Those MPs who did so much to undermine (what could have been) an effective UK negotiating position will now contrive some way to first extend the A50 deadline and eventually revoke A50 altogether.
Why? The default option is to leave without a deal on 29th March. This Parliament is incapable to agreeing anything so No Deal on 29th March looks ever more likely to me...
I know that You know that But the commentariat don't know that And they are thick as pigshit...
Anecdote alert - I know one previous non voter who, after voting for the first time ever in the referendum and then the GE, now says they'll never vote again because what is the point the Commons will just do what it always wanted.
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
But quite a poor show for our "democracy".
Not really a concern anymore. Deal is deader than a dodo working its way through Darwin's digestive tract and no deal is on the menu too. So remain will happen whatever the cost.
Glad I am stockpiling food. Another bulky delivery due Thursday.
Unfortunately doesn't deal with the medicines issue.
Advantage of moving house and temporarily needing storage is there is plenty of space for bulk orders of capers and linguine.
Yeh Gads, I hadn't thought of capers.
I will have to add to the order.
I think the secret for Brexit stockpiling is assuming that Hard Brexit is going to be highly annoying not cataclysmic. You can't prepare for the end of the world but you can prepare for certain things becoming harslder/more expensive to get.
I'm basically on a no loose bet with the stockpiling. I would get through these capers/olives/... etc anyways over the next 6 months. Bulk buying them now when I have the storage anyways is saving money.
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
If she does that the dup will no confidence the government
And lose
Labour plus SNP plus DUP plus LD , I don’t think they will lose they have the numbers , corbyn wont decline the chance of a GE
You seem to miss the point that the SNP and many labour mps support Norway plus a good part of the party
Which they can push for after they get the Tories out of office.
But "top Brussels figures" have no power to stop us revoking Article 50 and then re-invoking (effectively a 2-year extension).
And the "People's Vote lot" can call themselves realists all they want, but they still don't seem to have a plan of how to actually win a referendum, except re-running the playbook from last time with added helpings of "LOL can you believe what idiots you were to vote for Brexit last time".
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
It looks very much like TM is going to reach out to all parties and work with them for a solution
It is clear 'no deal' died tonight as TM looks like she is seeking to head a GNU and in that event ERG will be sidelined
Not happening - if you throw the DUP under a bus there will be an election anyway. Labour know that and wont support any consensus attempt.
If TM secures the SNP, Lib Dems and Starmer acting together for Norway or a referendum she has the votes without the DUP
If she does that the dup will no confidence the government
And lose
Labour plus SNP plus DUP plus LD , I don’t think they will lose they have the numbers , corbyn wont decline the chance of a GE
You seem to miss the point that the SNP and many labour mps support Norway plus a good part of the party. It is possible labour will split by the end of the week unless Corbyn, after losing the vonc, refuses a second referendum
Corbyn has already said we are leaving the single market
They have no reason to worry. Parliament won;t even permit more preparation for no deal, so no chance they let it happen. They're not quite ready to pull the plug on brexit yet, but they are getting there, with proposed delays, and referendums.
Anecdote alert - I know one previous non voter who, after voting for the first time ever in the referendum and then the GE, now says they'll never vote again because what is the point the Commons will just do what it always wanted.
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
But quite a poor show for our "democracy".
Not really a concern anymore. Deal is deader than a dodo working its way through Darwin's digestive tract and no deal is on the menu too. So remain will happen whatever the cost.
Not a concern that democracy is being shat on by those who claim to serve us? Hmm...
So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday
No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)
A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)
Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)
Yes, unfortunately that's where I stand as well. Unless the EU removes the backstop from the WA and makes it a legally binding change the deal doesn't pass.
No, don't believe it. Both the government and Parliament want to pull Brexit before we get to no deal.
Not a chance. The traitors in the party would be strung up before that.
I do genuinely believe that May is resolved to deliver brexit, even if it means no deal. That plus Corbyn in charge of Labour means we are heading to no deal. It's a lamentable situation, but really it's a problem of May's own making, her deal wasn't very good.
I would even accept no deal if for one moment I believed that the leavers would actually own the consequences. However I think we know that if it is the economic disaster that Liam Fox predicts the ultras will just shrug their shoulders and blame the lack of planning.
I would caution against anything Fox "predicts": better Mystic Meg than Fantasist Fox.
Comments
Don't you know there's going to be a fuel shortage?
Extension/revocation 90%
Deal 5%
No deal 5%
I also can't see a national government of any kind - a few Tories might go for it but any Labour MP who joined in government with any Tory would be a latter day Ramsay MacDonald and their careers would be finished
I will have to add to the order.
He considers the Enfield clip a tutorial in diplomacy.
However once she picks a plan B she will be vulnerable.
Honestly, you aren't a member so kindly fuck off.
Most of them also voted for the Referendum Act, invoking Article 50, and the Withdrawal Act (in the case of the Referendum Act in particular, I believe that almost everyone who voted on the matter in the Commons voted to pass the legislation, except for the SNP.)
Questions:
1. If they are afraid of Brexit now, why don't they vote to stop it?
2. If they were afraid of Brexit then, why did they vote for it?
DNV looks the best choice
Although I haven't got official confirmation, I suspect that was a three line whip.
Therefore I am happy to donate my £10 to the site.
I just need to find the link but I am sure someone can point me in the right direction...
Tories? Don't make me laugh. Not for a long time.
Labour? Not under Corbyn, although as incompetent as he is it is not as though it will be that much worse
LDs? I guess maybe, but they don't want the votes of stinky leavers like me, they have made that very clear
UKIP? No. Just, no.
Greens? Ok, they're not the complete inverse of UKIP now UKIP have gone even more bonkers, but they're still unpalatable.
Happily I've cornered the market in false whiskers - if your cunning plan needs them then do contact Omnium PLC!
For what it's worth I have quite a lot of confidence in the PM, and I'd go out of my way to give Corbyn the most fervent battering I can, which under Met Police rules I believe equates to a strongly-worded letter to his mother.
I think May has to now resign. I don't think she should for a moment. She's been great. However great forces have conspired against her.
I can't see any sensible course at all should she do so. It'll be dark times. Happily that'll give me some cover to explain to Corbyn what I really think about him. (Just between us, I actually wouldn't hurt a soul, but I might set fire to their beards.)
I think that's interesting.
Maybe she is sleep walking everyone to a 2nd vote after all.
You said the MV will pass. “It’s gonna pass,” you wrote.
It was lost by a record margin.
It looks like we are definitely Leaving....
Since they voted leave, this is a good sign for Remain.
"Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, Leave."
Some think Jezza gets first shot, but others apparently arguing Cons get another go to appoint a "proper Brexiteer"
Maybe some of the headbangers will VONC on that basis?
The EU have ensured that they have offered diddly squat in negotiations and taken away all our cards for subsequent rounds while at the same time undermining the UK's territorial integrity, so that the only offer on the table never stood an earthly of getting through parliament.
They have correctly realised that neither the PM nor parliament would ever seriously allow the one outcome that they feared, namely that the UK would leave on WTO terms on 29th March and thus take the question of the UK remaining off the table before trade talks started in earnest. Those MPs who did so much to undermine (what could have been) an effective UK negotiating position will now contrive some way to first extend the A50 deadline and eventually revoke A50 altogether.
https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1085267890566238212
If they can't command a majority then Jezza gets a go. If he can't form a majority (which he can't) then we have a general election.
Time for 650 (metaphorical, obviously!) lengths of rope hanging from 650 lamp posts in Parliament Square and across Westminster Bridge.
You know that
But the commentariat don't know that
And they are thick as pigshit...
I'm basically on a no loose bet with the stockpiling. I would get through these capers/olives/... etc anyways over the next 6 months. Bulk buying them now when I have the storage anyways is saving money.
And I really love Puttanesca.
And the "People's Vote lot" can call themselves realists all they want, but they still don't seem to have a plan of how to actually win a referendum, except re-running the playbook from last time with added helpings of "LOL can you believe what idiots you were to vote for Brexit last time".
I am now going diamond-hard No Deal Brexit. And flying an anarchist black flag from the house. Fuck 'em.