politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes”

Laura Kuenssberg
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@bbclaurak

DUP will back the govt in confidence vote tomorrow

So she'll win this.

D'y'know, I'm quite saddened by this. Our elected representatives capering like children, dancing on the lip of disaster and caring not. I don't care how much they're paid, it's too much. Silly, silly people...

For the people that think the changes in cable are somehow indicative of Brexit.

Pound rising against greenback, Benpointer big egg on face.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

This is the crazy part, how will Labour win the VoNC?

They won't.

Betfair odds imply there's still something like a 1/3 chance of a deal being passed by March 29. That seems far too high, doesn't it?

A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!

Andrew Neil is not happy.

How can anyone have confidence in this lot?

AndyJS said:

There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?

Not going to happen if the DUP stays with the govt, as they've said they will.

If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.

Casino_Royale said:

Just to be very clear: the outcome of tonight’s vote is that we’ll get an ever softer Brexit deal or no Brexit at all, not a harder one.

I fully expect the ERGers to then blame anyone but themselves for that.

Norway or remain

Well done, Ollie Robbins. You and your clusterfuck of a negotiation have brought us to this point.

If you have any shame, you will go and herd goats in Patagonia. First flight out tomorrow.

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

I'm fairly sure it is. But he doesn't want her to lose it. That would cause all sorts of complications for him.

I think there's fourteen days grace and if somebody can't put together a group of MPs willing to pass another VONC, then Parliament dissolves and there's a new election. But May stays on as PM until the election

Ironically apparently if she won the vote, the DUP would have voted against her in a VONC. As she's lost, they'll support her.


We live in strange times.

For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.

For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1085260488903090176

As a remainer, can I say 'what a total cock'

The man worth many votes for leave - yuk

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

tlg86 said:

Andrew Neil just said May has to resign if the government loses the VoNC. I don't think that's correct.

No, it isn't legally. She'd have 14 days to win a further confidence vote, else Parliament would be dissolved.

Presumably, if she lost it'd be down to the DUP, and there may be an offer she could make, using other people's money.

Even under the old rules, Prime Ministers only had to resign with some promptness. Jim Callaghan took eight days.

Ave_it said:

A lot of LAB will vote with CON tomorrow to stop Corbyn becoming PM!

No, they won't

Floater said:

Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.

But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.

And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.

The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.

I'm sorry to say it reminds me of a lot of Lib Dems in the Coalition years, and a lot of Corbynites more recently.

There are plenty of people who love the purity of being able to be utterly appalled by the c*cks in charge forever, and are utterly terrified of owning it when the prospect arises that they might become the c*cks in charge.

Just put a tenner on Matt Hancock at 65/1 to be next CON leader. He comes over better than any of them

Scrapheap_as_was said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1085260488903090176

As a remainer, can I say 'what a total cock'

Tusk always manages to say the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Casino_Royale said:

Floater said:

Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.

I'm sure we will play really nicely within the tent.........

RochdalePioneers said:

Question- when was the last time that a government lost by MORE than 230 votes?

Never.

SouthamObserver said:

So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

FF43 said:

For the first time, I think we might actually Remain. Brexiteer's is just too clusterfucked.

I think we’ll Remain too.

RochdalePioneers said:

Neil now shish-kebabing poor Matt Hancock who is still insisting that May carrying on and nothing changing is in the national interest

One Matt in Hancock and the world's your oyster
The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free
You'll find a god in every Tory cloister
A little flesh, a little history
I can feel Theresa sliding up to me

One Matt in Hancock makes a Leaver humble
Not much between despair and ecstasy
One Matt in Hancock and the deals they tumble
Can't be too careful with your company
I can feel Theresa walking next to me

Hancock out of his depth.

dodrade said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1085260488903090176

The EU strategy all along,

And we’ve played straight into their hands.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Assume PMQ is not happening tomorrow

Looks like vonc result will be at 7.00pm tomorrow

It is.

dodrade said:

May determined to fight on like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, with the same likelihood of success.

+1 Perhaps she could bite Tusks ankles

Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.

Floater said:

Casino_Royale said:

Floater said:

Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.

I'm sure we will play really nicely within the tent.........

If we do Remain, the counter-revolution comes next and I expect that’ll include a strong movement for us to join the euro as well.

Casino_Royale said:

Floater said:

Casino_Royale said:

Floater said:

Sky were saying the EU kept some stuff back to offer up when this vote failed - Time will tell

No, I think they’re going for the Remain kill.

I'm sure we will play really nicely within the tent.........

If we do Remain, the counter-revolution comes next and I expect that’ll include a strong movement for us to join the euro as well.

They can fuck right off

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1085263377411145728

Why the f**k is that drunk, dozy, hair-bothering fool still in office and commenting on this?

He should have resigned 2 1/2 years ago.

ralphmalph said:

For the people that think the changes in cable are somehow indicative of Brexit.

Pound rising against greenback, Benpointer big egg on face.

I have noticed that. It's been rising against EUR & USD for a couple of days now. I think the markets are taking the turmoil as an indicator that Brexit will be revoked. I can't help thinking they're going to have a rude awakening...

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

That's almost as humiliating a margin as that vonc in Jeremy Corbyn a few years back.

Hardly equivalent issues though. This is even worse than seemed possible even a few weeks ago. The deal is so dead it's practically been erased from history. Voting remain would be less of a humiliation for the Commons than approving it now, should the EU say it is that or nothing.

But voting Remain is also politically impossible without a second referendum.

And? It would win. The idea leavers will rally behind the deal in any substantial numbers is ridiculous.

The only conclusion I can draw is that there are a lot of hard Leavers who are actually Remainers: they only believe in Brexit if it consists solely of unicorns; otherwise they’d prefer to stay.

Certainly I was mistaken in my belief that JRM, David Davis, DominicRabb etc actually supported Brexit. It was all just a game.

I don't think my opinion of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has ever been lower.

I remember back in 2005 David Davis at a leadership hustings portraying himself as the pro-EU candidate, that only an idiot would propose changing our EU grouping, that our future was inside the EU.

He never got over being beaten by David Cameron and did everything thereafter to spite Dave, who even offered Davis a cabinet job back in 2010.

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

Hardly SO. The VONC has been talked about for months. I don't think they have a plan beyond that, as they can block lots of things, but have very little power to enact anything.

grabcocque said:

Full list of Tory rebels (118)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-has-suffered-the-worst-defeat-in

Around 2/3rds of backbenchers voted No. Absolute SHOCKER.

How can she stay?

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.

So here's my view on what happens next, changes since yesterday

No Deal Brexit 75% (+15%)

A deal agreed and accepted by Parliament 5% (-20%)

Extension/revocation of Article 50 20% (+5%)

I can understand why Corbyn has to push a VONC, but if anything it will strengthen May's position. She'll win it, and it'll then 1) give her a well needed win, and 2) people will ask Corbyn...'what next'?

AlastairMeeks said:

Pity the poor train users of Chester-le-Street.

The only privately-owned station on the National Rail network.

(factoid of the day for you guys!)

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

A lot of MPs standing? Don't they have enough seats in the HoC?

No - it seats 427.

That surely depends on how cosy they are.

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

So what happens when the government wins the VONC? The spotlight moves onto Labour. Interesting times.

No it doesn't! She wins the vote. Nothing has changed. She has no options, no way forward, no possible way to win a Vote on her deal, and no control over the business of the house. Yet she apparently still has confidence of the house. Corbyn should sit with his feet up on the dispatch box eating popcorn.

Hmmm - we’ll see. I suspect it might get a but sticky for him. That said, the fact the VONC was pre-planned suggests there may be some kind of strategy.

Hancock still being flayed alive by Neil. A permanent customs union would get support of the commons and is on the table from the EU but May wont even debate it. Pressure entirely on her. Corbyn can keep slinging his cross the house supported policy at her and ask her why she won't even consider it.

I think that the government will end up giving way on this. I don't see any other way through. And even then...

Today's Daily Mail editorial urging a vote in favour of the Deal failed to carry the day.

Richard_Nabavi said:

So, of those now rejoicing at the defeat they've inflicted on the government, at least one group is going to be very, very disappointed at the consequences. But which one?

Probably the ERG.

I think, though some will say that constitutionally he cannot intervene, the position and inclination of the Speaker will be telling in the end. Those in the HoC opposed to No Deal will be found a way to prevent it. IMO.

Andrew said:

AndyJS said:

There's no chance of the government losing a VONC, is that right?

Not going to happen if the DUP stays with the govt, as they've said they will.

If the DUP abstained it starts to get interesting, because then it only needs 2 kamikaze Tory MPs and I make it 314-314, with Harmon the decider.

What happens if given the scale of the debate the DUP changes its mind and gives up on May? It states that it no longer has confidence in May personally, but would be prepared to support a different Conservative PM who they could trust in subsequent dealings with the EU? So they say they will vote against the government in tomorrow's VONC but also say that they anticipate voting to support a new government put together within the 14 days by a different Conservative leader?

A high risk strategy, I know, because the one stumbling block is that May is so pig headeed that she might well not resign even if she lost the VONC, and the Conservative Party has no apparent mechanism to force her out.