politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

You need remain on the ballot to get Labour's support.

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1072953044558643206

She’s doing a musical number.

I'm Still Standing?

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

That would clearly be the best result. The question then is whether May is bold and ruthless enough to follow through and crush her saboteurs.

"Maggie T ain't got shit on me!"

solarflare said:

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1072953044558643206

She’s doing a musical number.

I'm Still Standing?

The winner takes it all, surely?

JosiasJessop said:

If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

Win or lose they had to put in letters if they disagree so fundamentally with the leader of their party. Good on them for that.

tottenhamWC said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

You need remain on the ballot to get Labour's support.

Good.

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

That would clearly be the best result. The question then is whether May is bold and ruthless enough to follow through and crush her saboteurs.

But who are the saboteurs? Seems everyone including May has been saboteur at some point. It's hard for us sans cullottes to keep up.

tottenhamWC said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

You need remain on the ballot to get Labour's support.

And for the EU to agree to extend Article 50.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

solarflare said:

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1072953044558643206

She’s doing a musical number.

I'm Still Standing?

F.U.R.B.

Frankie?

Yup.

You win most obscure pop music reference of the night award!

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

That's an added bonus then!

It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.

Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.

The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.

May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.

I agree. Popcorn time

RochdalePioneers said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Told @theresa_may has now been told result of #voteofconfidence ahead of 9pm media announcement

And is sinking a bottle of Vodka after hearing that sadly she is still in charge of Brexit.

"Seriously, I ever told them I could legally secure changes, and that the DUP backed me, what will it take to anger them enough to get rid of me?"

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Not sure why you think telling the people "you got it wrong, vote again" would save the Tories.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1072955542568615936

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.

https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1072955877253107714

Twat

The price of winning this vote has been to confirm that she is standing down before the next election. She has therefore offered herself up as a lame duck as the price of this vote.

Rather confirming the point of those who put in the letters.

MikeL said:

70-89 band just went favourite

Yet the odds against May are in from 19/1 to 13/1.

Donny43 said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Not sure why you think telling the people "you got it wrong, vote again" would save the Tories.

It's clearly not saying that.

She has tried her best to leave via a real and parliament won't let her.

Only resolution to above is to ask the people. Don't think it's that complex.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1072956156551880704

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

That's an added bonus then!

It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.

Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.

The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.

May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.

She can't. It would require at the very least a vote in the Commons, and she doesn't have the numbers.

We are left with the default, because nobody can agree an alternative pathway. And no deal is the default.

May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.

How can we 'crash out' of anything when we know in advance it's happening? The concept itself is ludicrous. We crashed out of the ERM. The whole concept of crashing out is that it happens as a shock. Crashing out of something by appointment is actually admitting that there are issues and that the policy is to fail to prepare for them.

"Jenkin: She will have my firm support. Just not on the Deal"

In office but not in power...

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is what editing PB is like
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1072955817605894145

He should get up later in the morning, it won't drag on so much then.

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072956234863661062

kle4 said:

JosiasJessop said:

If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

Win or lose they had to put in letters if they disagree so fundamentally with the leader of their party. Good on them for that.

One could argue that at least the hotter kind of Brexiteers are bothering to vote for what they believe in, even if they do end up being outnumbered.

Whereas the hundreds of Europhiles and pragmatists who probably constitute a good majority in Parliament - and who view Brexit with disdain or outright horror - are content to make vacuous speeches or to remain silent, rather than seize control of this process and stop it in its tracks.

One can dispute the positioning of both the ERG wing and the Prime Minister, but at least it is possible to construct a reasonable argument to the effect that each is acting in what they believe to be the national interest. Whereas the ditherers are either moaning, wetting themselves, or both.

And one fundamental fact persists: if the majority in Parliament refuses to work together towards any agreed outcome, then Hard Brexit happens by default on March 29th next year.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"Jenkin: She will have my firm support. Just not on the Deal"

In office but not in power...

And this is the key point. Win or lose May still won't be able to get concessions from Yerp or a vote through the Commons. An entertaining aside but doesn't really change anything.

Any rumours yet? I've just come out of a meeting.

Andrew Neil forgot the LibDems were a Party there for a moment

Mortimer said:

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.

You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.

Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.

Yes, far better to lose them slowly.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Andrew Neil forgot the LibDems were a Party there for a moment

easy to do.

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

The price of winning this vote has been to confirm that she is standing down before the next election. She has therefore offered herself up as a lame duck as the price of this vote.

Rather confirming the point of those who put in the letters.

In what way? Were there really that many people who thought she was going to last beyond Brexit day, assuming we even get there?

She confirmed that she wanted to lead them into 2022, but has had to concede that is a pipe dream.

Sure, but I always figured everyone knew that she didn't mean it, like Cameron not resigning if he lost the referendum, I assumed it was built into perceptions of her.

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.

Not really. We needed a bloodletting, unfortunately this is very poorly timed.

Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.

You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.

Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.

Yes, far better to lose them slowly.

If, say, less than a third of voters support no deal in March, that is no basis for the conservatives to thrive anyway; especially if things go south subsequently

IanB2 said:

Jenkin as good as conceding that they have failed.

Farage conceded the referendum at ten minutes past ten on 23rd June.

70-89 now clear favourite

Benpointer said:

Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

Telegraph correspondant.

tottenhamWC said:

Donny43 said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Not sure why you think telling the people "you got it wrong, vote again" would save the Tories.

It's clearly not saying that.

She has tried her best to leave via a real and parliament won't let her.

Only resolution to above is to ask the people. Don't think it's that complex.

If you put Remain back on the ballot paper it's exactly how it will - rightly - be seen.

Mortimer said:

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

The_Taxman said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.

Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.

You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.

Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.

Of course, all that matters is The Party and sod the bloody country.

MikeL said:

70-89 now clear favourite

But a 7% chance she'll lose. What a spread that is.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG are worse than Mark Reckless.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1072937596597211136

Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?

Deservedly so.

In another era they'd be horsewhipped.

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

That's an added bonus then!

It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.

Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.

The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.

May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.

She can't. It would require at the very least a vote in the Commons, and she doesn't have the numbers.

We are left with the default, because nobody can agree an alternative pathway. And no deal is the default.

If she put that to Parliament as the government proposal, it would sail through.

Not without Labour's support it wouldn't, and Corbyn has already shown he puts his own power and ego above the national interest.

Corbyn would have to surf the wave or get very wet.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG are worse than Mark Reckless.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1072937596597211136

Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?

Deservedly so.

In another era they'd be horsewhipped.

What Tories get up to in their private lives is remarkable.

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

Tick.

Tock.

I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.

Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.

You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.

Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.

Not really. We needed a bloodletting, unfortunately this is very poorly timed.

Which blood do you think needs letting?

Across the whole party tbh, as I said if the PM wins then the ERG needs to fall in line or lose the whip.

Becky Long odds Bailey.... +1193.12

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG are worse than Mark Reckless.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1072937596597211136

Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?

Depends how mental their constituency party is, which can vary immensely.

Result being announced now.

So if May wins, she has licence to screw things up as badly as this week without the threat of a leadership challenge. I am not sure that’s a huge improvement.

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG are worse than Mark Reckless.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1072937596597211136

Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?

Deservedly so.

In another era they'd be horsewhipped.

What Tories get up to in their private lives is remarkable.

Stephen Milligan was nearly 25 years ago (boy that makes me feel old, I was a sniggering schoolboy back when he passed away.)