politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members
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It's especially unhelpful since if they won't bend, they will themselves have to erect a hard border in Ireland, the very thing they claim they were trying to avoid.kle4 said:
It's a line they won't cross. Unhelpfully as it really does seem like the deal has at least a chance if they would bend on that point.TGOHF said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/12/eu-reacted-theresa-may-facing-no-confidence-vote/
"Bad news for Theresa May's Brussels trip as EU leaders will give her only 10 minutes of their time "
"The European Union is poised to reject Theresa May’s demands for “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop will only ever be temporary, senior EU diplomats have told Telegraph."0 -
With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.kle4 said:
And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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Yebbut... the BBC aren't going to be on air with their special programme until 20:30Sandpit said:Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...
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Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.Pulpstar said:317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !
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Flint, Mann, Austin I think.MaxPB said:
With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.kle4 said:
And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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May: The Downing Street Yearskle4 said:
"Badly damaged but limping on" is the title of her autobiography.TGOHF said:
Volume 1: Strong And Stable
Volume 2: Marginally Less Shit Than Corbyn
Volume 3: Badly Damaged But Limping On
Volume 4: Breathing With The Aid Of A Ventilator
Volume 5: Oh God, Will This Ever End?
Volume 6: Eddie Izzard, MP For Maidenhead0 -
Just don't think about the croquettesMarqueeMark said:
Just wondering - would a roast potato be any better?Cyclefree said:
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.WhisperingOracle said:Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.0 -
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It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to countRochdalePioneers said:
They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crossesSandpit said:Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...
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I see no real difference on the front benches. The Labour backbenches are stronger.ydoethur said:
And yet Labour are still worse.SouthamObserver said:What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.
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End of days.... a UKIPhome poll for a thread....
Worrying times.0 -
Yeah, if every Tory MP were to vote for the deal, I think there'd be enough Labour MPs to get it through.Pulpstar said:
Flint, Mann, Austin I think.MaxPB said:
With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.kle4 said:
And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
But the ERG "falling into line" seems pretty much a pipe dream...0 -
Check out my twitter feed, I got into a spat with Mark Wallace of UKIPHome over this poll.Scrapheap_as_was said:End of days.... a UKIPhome poll for a thread....
Worrying times.0 -
Someone once wrote fuck off neatly in a ballot. A clear vote against a candidate. Counted as a vote for said candidate.eek said:
It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to countRochdalePioneers said:
They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crossesSandpit said:Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...
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Counting is always slow when you have a high turnout. It's not Sunderland South.0
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I know plenty of Conservative voters, and talk to a fair few. Whilst the Conservatives are not the party of EUphilia, they're also not the party of EUphobia either - that was UKIP. However much the ERGers are trying to make them so.MaxPB said:
You have no idea what conservative voters want. We aren't the party of EUphilia.JosiasJessop said:
Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.MaxPB said:
I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.JosiasJessop said:
Oooh, touchy.MaxPB said:
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
Conservatives should be trying to make the entire electorate their voters. They should be trying to attract as many people as possible to their vision of the future of the country. The sad thing is that the Conservative Europhobes have been doing exactly the opposite for decades - reducing the party's appeal, fighting others in the party, and looking backwards.
You are talking about the core vote, and if you only try to appeal to that - and especially only the EUphobic core - then the Conservatives lose, and lose big.
Hence my comment.0 -
Maybe it's close enough to warrant a recount....0
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19/1 against May on Betfair now. Does someone know something?0
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TSE?SandyRentool said:
Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.Pulpstar said:317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !
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Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....0 -
+1SandyRentool said:
Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.Pulpstar said:317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !
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Why do you think it said it needs to be across multiple boxesJonathan said:
Someone once wrote fuck off neatly in a ballot. A clear vote against a candidate. Counted as a vote for said candidate.eek said:
It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to countRochdalePioneers said:
They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crossesSandpit said:Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...
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Oh, fuck it. Wish I'd seen that earlier. Will have to watch on catch up later.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Secret Life is starting now (I went to Chester Zoo - monorail! - back in April).Black_Rook said:OK, now things have gone too far.
I switched over to Channel 4 to watch The Secret Life of the Zoo, and what do I find? Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell howling at one another.
I know I tuned in to watch dumb animals but this wasn't what I had in mind.
Bloody Tories! Have now changed channels to the snooker. Dammit.
Bloody Tories, grrrrr...0 -
I understand in parts of London counting is quite slow, because of the 470% turnout.FrankBooth said:Counting is always slow when you have a high turnout. It's not Sunderland South.
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I assume that (a) they now have a result and (b) Brady is on the phone to May0
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She needs a majority of votes cast. At most that will mean 159 out of 317, now that Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths have been reinstated.Benpointer said:
If she wins and stays on, it will be so satisfying if she carries out an evening of the long knives against the ERGers in the cabinet. Boot the lot of them out without prior notice. That has about as much chance of happening as the nationalisation of the Sun.0 -
I really didn't think this could get any more farcical. Never underestimate the Conservative party's skill with farce.0
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Does she need 50% support of MPs eligible to vote (i.e. 159) or 50% of MPs who chose to vote...?0
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Some Tory MP on BBC thinks May has got two-thirds of votes.0
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A roast potato is better than most things and certainly better than sex with Boris (I imagine - I do have some standards, you know).MarqueeMark said:
Just wondering - would a roast potato be any better?Cyclefree said:
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.WhisperingOracle said:Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.0 -
A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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In the AV referendum that counted as spoiled.SandyRentool said:
Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.Pulpstar said:317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0009/110043/May-referendum-doubtful-placemat-2011.pdf0 -
And if it did they'd all be screaming blue Murdoch...Oort said:
She needs a majority of votes cast. At most that will mean 159 out of 317, now that Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths have been reinstated.Benpointer said:
If she wins and stays on, it will be so satisfying if she carries out an evening of the long knives against the ERGers in the cabinet. Boot the lot of them out without prior notice. That has about as much chance of happening as the nationalisation of the Sun.0 -
Choose to vote. Everyone voted making the question moot.RochdalePioneers said:Does she need 50% support of MPs eligible to vote (i.e. 159) or 50% of MPs who chose to vote...?
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Perhaps, but using that as a reason to vote against it in parliament is ridiculous in my book. Particularly for the Tories.tottenhamWC said:
A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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Good on you!TheScreamingEagles said:
Check out my twitter feed, I got into a spat with Mark Wallace of UKIPHome over this poll.Scrapheap_as_was said:End of days.... a UKIPhome poll for a thread....
Worrying times.0 -
That's a good point. When might he give it a go?MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
(a) as soon as possible,
(b) after the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down, or
(c) keep waiting til April and hope May ends up in charge of No Deal and makes as much of a mess of it as we would expect?
So many delicious opportunities!0 -
It's the interplay of statute ' voter's intention is clear ' and case law. Whether the centre of the symbol is inside the box is the key.eek said:
Why do you think it said it needs to be across multiple boxesJonathan said:
Someone once wrote fuck off neatly in a ballot. A clear vote against a candidate. Counted as a vote for said candidate.eek said:
It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to countRochdalePioneers said:
They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crossesSandpit said:Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...
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Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
Talking of the Sun (and going way off-topic), is your username anything to do with a certain cloud?Oort said:
She needs a majority of votes cast. At most that will mean 159 out of 317, now that Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths have been reinstated.Benpointer said:
If she wins and stays on, it will be so satisfying if she carries out an evening of the long knives against the ERGers in the cabinet. Boot the lot of them out without prior notice. That has about as much chance of happening as the nationalisation of the Sun.0 -
SouthamObserver said:
I see no real difference on the front benches. The Labour backbenches are stronger.ydoethur said:
And yet Labour are still worse.SouthamObserver said:What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.
That's because they're mainly full of ex-front benchers.0 -
It looks like some are cashing out their profits.0
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Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/10729460227233218570 -
ThankytaAlistair said:
Choose to vote. Everyone voted making the question moot.RochdalePioneers said:Does she need 50% support of MPs eligible to vote (i.e. 159) or 50% of MPs who chose to vote...?
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Should Margot James ballot be rules invalid as she has identified herself on twitter ?Donny43 said:
In the AV referendum that counted as spoiled.SandyRentool said:
Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.Pulpstar said:317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0009/110043/May-referendum-doubtful-placemat-2011.pdf0 -
Fair enough, it would be closer than I recognised. Now, how many, realistically, will not do so under any circumstances? 10? 20? 30?MaxPB said:
With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.kle4 said:
And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
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FFS, I want to go to bed.rpjs said:Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/10729460227233218570 -
Graham Brady hates the Apprentice. Sod it, I'm off to boost Britain's GDP at the chip shop.rpjs said:Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/10729460227233218570 -
Yep.Cyclefree said:SouthamObserver said:
I see no real difference on the front benches. The Labour backbenches are stronger.ydoethur said:
And yet Labour are still worse.SouthamObserver said:What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.
That's because they're mainly full of ex-front benchers.
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Dear oh dear... Laura K still holding a candle for the ERG cause, I see.Danny565 said:
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Whilst they work out WTAF they do nextrpjs said:Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/10729460227233218570 -
Where are you in the world tonight?tlg86 said:
FFS, I want to go to bed.rpjs said:Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857
Half past midnight for me, alarm goes off five hours from now!0 -
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
It's a bit circular though - some are ensuring it doesn't get through purely so that it gets put to the people so they can remain.tottenhamWC said:
A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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He says the announcement will be made at 9pm. There's no indication that the result has been given to the media under embargo.rpjs said:Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/10729460227233218570 -
Yes that would do it. Although it might also cause her to lose a HoC VoNCCyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
Ideal monetary result for me would be May loses, Hunt takes over and then Starmer replaces Corbyn. Let's do this.0
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Leave with May’s deal vs Leave with no deal. Remain have already lost.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
She is utterly tiresome. Unbearable. Solely responsible for my switching to ITV News after being a loyal BBC watcher all my life.Benpointer said:0 -
Agreed. And get on with it.Benpointer said:
Yes that would do it.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
Yes, that is my main beef with the "People's vote" crew in parliament at the moment.kle4 said:
It's a bit circular though - some are ensuring it doesn't get through purely so that it gets put to the people so they can remain.tottenhamWC said:
A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.MaxPB said:
If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.Gallowgate said:
And then what? A General Election?MaxPB said:
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.kle4 said:
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.MaxPB said:
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.WhisperingOracle said:86 anti would be very good for May.
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My assumption was that she's had the boiled potato and was extrapolating to Boris. But happy to be corrected.DavidL said:
You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.Cyclefree said:
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.WhisperingOracle said:Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.0 -
+1 Many of the long-term Tory voters I know are appalled by Brexit. They are not new ones who voted Tory perhaps for the first time in 2017 but people who have voted Tory for decades. Brexit will just do harm to the Tories as they are going to take a hit electorally whether it is Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit or Remain. The least damaging in my opinion is Remain,JosiasJessop said:
I know plenty of Conservative voters, and talk to a fair few. Whilst the Conservatives are not the party of EUphilia, they're also not the party of EUphobia either - that was UKIP. However much the ERGers are trying to make them so.MaxPB said:
You have no idea what conservative voters want. We aren't the party of EUphilia.JosiasJessop said:
Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.MaxPB said:
I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.JosiasJessop said:
Oooh, touchy.MaxPB said:
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
Conservatives should be trying to make the entire electorate their voters. They should be trying to attract as many people as possible to their vision of the future of the country. The sad thing is that the Conservative Europhobes have been doing exactly the opposite for decades - reducing the party's appeal, fighting others in the party, and looking backwards.
You are talking about the core vote, and if you only try to appeal to that - and especially only the EUphobic core - then the Conservatives lose, and lose big.
Hence my comment.0 -
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That's Lord Brady, newly appointed Cabinet Minister, thank you.RochdalePioneers said:I assume that (a) they now have a result and (b) Brady is on the phone to May
Ah, she must know she's lost and it is over at last.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
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Did it look like she had just crushed some saboteurs?FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
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Demob happy, if she is sane.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
That's an added bonus then!MaxPB said:
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
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It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.Benpointer said:
That's an added bonus then!MaxPB said:
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
I am happy to confirm that I have never had Boris in any way, shape or form. It is an utter mystery to me why any sentient woman would want to get closer to him than a handshake, since he has - to me - all the sex appeal of a lukewarm, slightly flaky, over-boiled potato (i.e. for the avoidance of doubt - none). He also looks as if he doesn't wash very often.IanB2 said:
My assumption was that she's had the boiled potato and was extrapolating to Boris. But happy to be corrected.DavidL said:
You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.Cyclefree said:
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.WhisperingOracle said:Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
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And is sinking a bottle of Vodka after hearing that sadly she is still in charge of Brexit.TheWhiteRabbit said:Told @theresa_may has now been told result of #voteofconfidence ahead of 9pm media announcement
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If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.
As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.0 -
Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.MaxPB said:
It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.Benpointer said:
That's an added bonus then!MaxPB said:
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
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I have no idea how this will go but my guess is the No's will get more votes than expected. They have more reason to lie.0
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Nothing has changed, I will carry on delivering Brexit, yadda yadda yadda....Scott_P said:twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1072953044558643206
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Assuming she's still in a job, must be tempting to come out and announce any old shit for policies, just to piss folk off0
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Isn’t that to stop the media speculating based on the presence or absence of the crest on the usual lectern?Scott_P said:
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It would be nice if the national interest was occasionally prioritised versus the internal politics of the conservative party. We need an outcome and clarity.MaxPB said:
It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.Benpointer said:
That's an added bonus then!MaxPB said:
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
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The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.MaxPB said:
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.Cyclefree said:
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.Benpointer said:
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.Jonathan said:
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.MarqueeMark said:Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Tick.
Tock.0 -
BBC: Turnout is 100%0
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Cyclefree said:
I am happy to confirm that I have never had Boris in any way, shape or form. It is an utter mystery to me why any sentient woman would want to get closer to him than a handshake, since he has - to me - all the sex appeal of a lukewarm, slightly flaky, over-boiled potato (i.e. for the avoidance of doubt - none). He also looks as if he doesn't wash very often.IanB2 said:
My assumption was that she's had the boiled potato and was extrapolating to Boris. But happy to be corrected.DavidL said:
You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.Cyclefree said:
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.WhisperingOracle said:Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
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She’s doing a musical number.Scott_P said:
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