politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe
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The_Apocalypse said:
Let us hold a vote of no confidence, but not yet.0 -
She needs about 100 more than that to crush the ERG once and for all.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky say they have 158 on record voting for TM
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Surely the only meaningful promise TMay could make is "I'll resign when the WA has passed".0
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It doesn't put the whole thing any more at risk. If parliament wants to overturn the 2016 result it can do that anyway.IanB2 said:
In what warped mindset is opposing the agreement that enables us to leave and then trying to bring down the PM mid-process, putting the whole thing at risk, "honouring the result"??Xenon said:The demonisation of the ERG for trying to honour the result of the referendum is laughable.
Most of these rumours are completely made up and the usual morons are lapping it up.0 -
Responsible politicians - which do probably still command a majority - will never allow us to get to no deal.SeanT said:Good performance from TMay at PMQs. She's weirdly good at handling public humiliations, shame she is rubbish at everything else.
So. Final prediction: TMay will win. Nothing will change. Corbyn can’t force election. Brexit impasse will continue; her deal is still unsellable.
The only two routes lead to 1. No Deal, or 2. A new referendum0 -
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.
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They need someone to take the hit for the drubbing in May’s locals.TheWhiteRabbit said:Surely the only meaningful promise TMay could make is "I'll resign when the WA has passed".
Might as well be Theresa.0 -
I have no idea why the Eagle (who in all other respects is clearly sane and moderate) campaigned for Jenkyns – who was up against Ed Balls, who commands more intelligence and talent in his left thumb than the entire Tory Right combined.Roger said:Andrea Jenkyns saying her colleagues are saying publically they will support the Prime Minister but telling her privately that they wont. She not content to trash her own reputation she's happy to take her party down with her.
What a piece of work! I can't remember such a sleazeball MP. Ever. If Eagle campaigned for her his judgement must have been impaired.0 -
.. a vote which they triggered!viewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
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If only people looked at our voting system and asked how it can be defended when it is the only way that the off-the-scale lunatics with jobs-for-life in safe seats that comprise the ERG can continue to pretend they represent anyone other than themselves.DavidL said:
That assumes May doesn’t do a deal with Labour to get a deal through despite their opposition. I am struggling to see the ERG staying in the party after this, particularly if May wins comfortably.Beverley_C said:
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.SandyRentool said:
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.Scott_P said:
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default0 -
The DUP is first and foremost a Protestant party and the reason they oppose British membership of the EU is because they believe the EU is subject to considerable Roman Catholic influence. There seriously is no way they are going to recruit Jacob Rees-Mogg even if they do vote the same way on abortion.Black_Rook said:
From my limited knowledge of the DUP - given that I understand Northern Irish politics even less than English politics - I believe that they combine social conservatism with a more Labourite attitude to public spending. It's just the sort of positioning that might go down well in very Brexity parts of the Midlands and North. Moreover, whether or not the ERG-wing became part of the DUP, or simply sided closely with them, they'd be a group that did not campaign under the Conservative banner and could be seen as having publicly rejected it. That could be an asset to them in many parts of the country.edmundintokyo said:
There's a gap in the market where UKIP used to be - maybe hard to hold their Westminster seats but they're playing their cards right to get into the European Parliament...grabcocque said:
I would absolutely not be surprised if the ERG decide to peel off and form an independent bloc. And take the DUP with them.Beverley_C said:
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.SandyRentool said:
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.Scott_P said:
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
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given the ERG has about 70-80 odd member thats a tough order.DavidL said:
She needs about 100 more than that to crush the ERG once and for all.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky say they have 158 on record voting for TM
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Have you looked at Irish TDs?IanB2 said:
If only people looked at our voting system and asked how it can be defended when it is the only way that the off-the-scale lunatics with jobs-for-life in safe seats that comprise the ERG can continue to pretend they represent anyone other than themselves.DavidL said:
That assumes May doesn’t do a deal with Labour to get a deal through despite their opposition. I am struggling to see the ERG staying in the party after this, particularly if May wins comfortably.Beverley_C said:
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.SandyRentool said:
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.Scott_P said:
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
.. which they triggered!viewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.
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Owen Patterson's letter pushed the numbers over the top I reckon.Richard_Nabavi said:
.. which they triggered!viewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
Are you really surprised? And was she supposed to go the the Head of States meeting tomorrow not knowing if she was one? How exactly would that have been in the national interest?viewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
Public declarations in a secret ballot are a complete waste of time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky say they have 158 on record voting for TM
There is 100% room for plausible deniability.0 -
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Indeed, if they really think only 158 will vote for her, then she loses.DavidL said:
She needs about 100 more than that to crush the ERG once and for all.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky say they have 158 on record voting for TM
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Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?0 -
I don’t think so. I don’t think all ERG members will vote against her. OTOH some non members might. My current guess, FWIW, is that there will be under 70 against.Slackbladder said:
given the ERG has about 70-80 odd member thats a tough order.DavidL said:
She needs about 100 more than that to crush the ERG once and for all.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky say they have 158 on record voting for TM
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I think you're half right. Right in the sense that on Monday we learned 24% would feel "betrayed" if we remain (betrayed + disappointed + angry combined a whopping 38%) and that could easily lead to an English SNP-style party with a grievance getting twenty odd seats in Parliament.Black_Rook said:
From my limited knowledge of the DUP - given that I understand Northern Irish politics even less than English politics - I believe that they combine social conservatism with a more Labourite attitude to public spending. It's just the sort of positioning that might go down well in very Brexity parts of the Midlands and North. Moreover, whether or not the ERG-wing became part of the DUP, or simply sided closely with them, they'd be a group that did not campaign under the Conservative banner and could be seen as having publicly rejected it. That could be an asset to them in many parts of the country.edmundintokyo said:
There's a gap in the market where UKIP used to be - maybe hard to hold their Westminster seats but they're playing their cards right to get into the European Parliament...grabcocque said:
I would absolutely not be surprised if the ERG decide to peel off and form an independent bloc. And take the DUP with them.Beverley_C said:
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.SandyRentool said:
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.Scott_P said:
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
Now, imagine that we end up with Remain or BINO at the end of all this. We have already seen, courtesy of the SNP, how well a party armed with arguments about national sovereignty and a sense of grievance can do. What if they can manage to win ten or fifteen seats in Parliament? With their friends in Northern Ireland they'd then have over 20, easily the fourth party in the Commons - and their presence would make it even harder for either Labour or the Tories to win a General Election outright.
Anyway, I know, getting fourteen steps ahead of myself. Just throwing a thought out there.
However if you think Rees Mogg's band of merry men will be welcomed with open arms in the very Brexity parts of the Midlands and the North because they are "not Conservatives" I have a bridge to sell you!
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Don't cross the ERG! They've asked for The head of the PM The Governor of the Bank of England and now Chairman of the 1922 committee all in one morning. It makes Madame Defarge look like an old softieviewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
Expectations managementDanSmith said:0 -
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?0 -
Votes for party led by Nigel Farage in 2014 European Parliament election: 4,376,635.IanB2 said:
If only people looked at our voting system and asked how it can be defended when it is the only way that the off-the-scale lunatics with jobs-for-life in safe seats that comprise the ERG can continue to pretend they represent anyone other than themselves.DavidL said:
That assumes May doesn’t do a deal with Labour to get a deal through despite their opposition. I am struggling to see the ERG staying in the party after this, particularly if May wins comfortably.Beverley_C said:
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.SandyRentool said:
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.Scott_P said:
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
I dare say the ERG-wing, regardless of how much contempt a great many people hold it in, does represent a non-negligible segment of opinion in the country. It is very hard to gauge where public opinion would be if we had PR for Westminster - because an awful lot of voters would, presumably, be able to pick their favourite party at long last, rather than choose whichever one with a chance of winning in their constituency that they least disliked. But I strongly suspect that a group of people like the ERG would do quite well in a General Election held under such circumstances.0 -
No, it doesnt.Anazina said:
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?
Because a permanent CU can't be agreed until after we'e left the EU.
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The same argument could easily be projected forwards...TheScreamingEagles said:
They need someone to take the hit for the drubbing in May’s locals.TheWhiteRabbit said:Surely the only meaningful promise TMay could make is "I'll resign when the WA has passed".
Might as well be Theresa.0 -
A permanent CU can't be agreed during the A50 negotiations. A permanent anything can't (except for the backstop, which only might be permanent).Anazina said:
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?0 -
A permanent CU could *be* the backstop, so that the future partnership was a lot less significant a build than now.Mortimer said:
No, it doesnt.Anazina said:
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?
Because a permanent CU can't be agreed until after we'e left the EU.0 -
*** Betting Post ***
Interesting to compare the odds on May losing tonight's vote with the odds on her departure date as leader. They keep shifting, obviously, but as I write you can back at 8.0 or a bit more on her losing, and lay 2018 departure at around 6.2. That's a disparity, surely? If she wins tonight, it's very unlikely that she'll resign with immediate effect (even if she announces her resignation immediately), whereas conversely if she loses tonight, it's quite likely that she'll not actually cease to be leader until mid-Jan or even later.
DYOR etc, but I've backed her to lose the vote and laid 2018. I expect her to win the vote, but if so I expect the pair of bets to be neutral, whereas if she loses the vote I'm guaranteed a profit and might win both sides of the pair.0 -
We are watching Jacob and his fellow Ergonauts trashing their credibility by making the wrong decision at every turn.0
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A permanent CU which both NI and GB are inSeanT said:
That's worse for the DUP. It means Norn Ireland will FOREVER be locked into a differing regime from Great Britain, with a regulatory border down the Irish Sea, and slowly diverging - towards a United Ireland.Anazina said:
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?
Edit: With the EU obviously.0 -
Best trade right now is buying £/$. It is already rising through the day and should spurt tomorrow when May is secure. If the reverse happens, it can't have much further to fall.0
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Still, without SM access as well, a regulatory border emerges in the Irish Sea (which is a potential issue with the backstop, but at least that's not intended to be permanent).TheJezziah said:
A permanent CU which both NI and GB are inSeanT said:
That's worse for the DUP. It means Norn Ireland will FOREVER be locked into a differing regime from Great Britain, with a regulatory border down the Irish Sea, and slowly diverging - towards a United Ireland.Anazina said:
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?
Edit: With the EU obviously.0 -
Just put your money where your mouth is and back her to win. A much better return.Richard_Nabavi said:*** Betting Post ***
Interesting to compare the odds on May losing tonight's vote with the odds on her departure date as leader. They keep shifting, obviously, but as I write you can back at 8.0 or a bit more on her losing, and lay 2018 departure at around 6.2. That's a disparity, surely? If she wins tonight, it's very unlikely that she'll resign with immediate effect (even if she announces her resignation immediately), whereas conversely if she loses tonight, it's quite likely that she'll not actually cease to be leader until mid-Jan or even later.
DYOR etc, but I've backed her to lose the vote and laid 2018. I expect her to win the vote, but if so I expect the pair of bets to be neutral, whereas if she loses the vote I'm guaranteed a profit and might win both sides of the pair.0 -
Hmm, not so sure about the second part of that, certainly in the short term.IanB2 said:Best trade right now is buying £/$. It is already rising through the day and should spurt tomorrow when May is secure. If the reverse happens, it can't have much further to fall.
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In the very short term, you can take profits at 8.59 pm after a long series of MPs have pledged loyalty to Mrs M but before the result is announced.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hmm, not so sure about the second part of that, certainly in the short term.IanB2 said:Best trade right now is buying £/$. It is already rising through the day and should spurt tomorrow when May is secure. If the reverse happens, it can't have much further to fall.
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The ERG are insane idiots. The Tories badly need their Kinnock 1985 Militant speech moment.Roger said:
Don't cross the ERG! They've asked for The head of the PM The Governor of the Bank of England and now Chairman of the 1922 committee all in one morning. It makes Madame Defarge look like an old softieviewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
Given by whom?Cyclefree said:
The ERG are insane idiots. The Tories badly need their Kinnock 1985 Militant speech moment.Roger said:
Don't cross the ERG! They've asked for The head of the PM The Governor of the Bank of England and now Chairman of the 1922 committee all in one morning. It makes Madame Defarge look like an old softieviewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
Ramping so that when she wins with ease it will be Mrs May "hugely strengthened" etc, and insulated from harm for another year (potentially).TheScreamingEagles said:
Expectations managementDanSmith said:0 -
The trouble with that is that the markets have already discounted her victory, and in any case the £/$ rate depends a lot on other factors as well.IanB2 said:
In the very short term, you can take profits at 8.59 pm after a long series of MPs have pledged loyalty to Mrs M but before the result is announced.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hmm, not so sure about the second part of that, certainly in the short term.IanB2 said:Best trade right now is buying £/$. It is already rising through the day and should spurt tomorrow when May is secure. If the reverse happens, it can't have much further to fall.
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Not today it doesn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trouble with that is that the markets have already discounted her victory, and in any case the £/$ rate depends a lot on other factors as well.IanB2 said:
In the very short term, you can take profits at 8.59 pm after a long series of MPs have pledged loyalty to Mrs M but before the result is announced.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hmm, not so sure about the second part of that, certainly in the short term.IanB2 said:Best trade right now is buying £/$. It is already rising through the day and should spurt tomorrow when May is secure. If the reverse happens, it can't have much further to fall.
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God knows! They're woefully short of talent and courage.IanB2 said:
Given by whom?Cyclefree said:
The ERG are insane idiots. The Tories badly need their Kinnock 1985 Militant speech moment.Roger said:
Don't cross the ERG! They've asked for The head of the PM The Governor of the Bank of England and now Chairman of the 1922 committee all in one morning. It makes Madame Defarge look like an old softieviewcode said:
So an organization dedicated to the removal of Theresa May via a vote of no confidence is unprepared for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.The_Apocalypse said:
Hmph.0 -
Corbyn's position has never made any sense, but fortunately for him, it's never had to. Labour are trying very hard to make sure their internal contradictions are never exposed to the unflattering fluorescent lamp of political reality that has done for May's deal.SeanT said:
That's how I understand it. But maybe I am wrong. Brexit is turning into Quantum Mechanics: if you think you understand it, you don't understand it
(copyright: R Feynman)0 -
Well over 100 MPs voting against her with the certainty her Brexit deal will be defeated should be enough to force her out. She’ll gift power to Labour if she stays after that because if she stays, the DUP will vote with Labour in a no confidence vote that would surely follow.DanSmith said:0 -
I'd dispute the view that public declarations in a secret ballot are a waste of time or similar. They let us know how many people are truly shameless even though we don't knows which ones.0
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SeanT said:
Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election. She's going to win this at a canter.
I do hope this comment ages well.
Bercow made similar pledges as Speaker and look how that turned out. Unless she gives a specific date, no one will believe her and if she gives a specific date power will drain from her almost immediately as the jockeying to succeed her starts.
It simply shows she can’t carry on and shouldn’t - whether she wins tonight or not.
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Corbyn is the surfer waiting to ride the wave of discontent but not knowing which way the wind is blowing.grabcocque said:
Corbyn's position has never made any sense, but fortunately for him, it's never had to. Labour are trying very hard to make sure their internal contradictions are never exposed to the unflattering fluorescent lamp of political reality that has done for May's deal.SeanT said:
That's how I understand it. But maybe I am wrong. Brexit is turning into Quantum Mechanics: if you think you understand it, you don't understand it
(copyright: R Feynman)0 -
It's truly remarkable how much entirely ineffective displacement activity one well-hung Parliament can put its mind to when there's a constitutional crisis looming.0
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Seems a good chance it'll nudge over 100, but not too much more. Maybe 210-105 or thereabouts?AmpfieldAndy said:
Well over 100 MPs voting against her with the certainty her Brexit deal will be defeated should be enough to force her out.
To make her think of resigning will surely need quite a bit more.
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Labour would go further than Tories (greater integration) so as to try to stay in the SM in all but name. Probably in exchange if necessary some kind of fudge on FOM.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Still, without SM access as well, a regulatory border emerges in the Irish Sea (which is a potential issue with the backstop, but at least that's not intended to be permanent).TheJezziah said:
A permanent CU which both NI and GB are inSeanT said:
That's worse for the DUP. It means Norn Ireland will FOREVER be locked into a differing regime from Great Britain, with a regulatory border down the Irish Sea, and slowly diverging - towards a United Ireland.Anazina said:
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.SeanT said:
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to tryGIN1138 said:
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?SeanT said:Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?
Edit: With the EU obviously.0 -
Just landed. I take it I haven’t missed much in the last 12 hours...
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Nadine Dorries on politics live slagging off Mrs M's approach to Brexit then commending Amber Rudd for next leader - how does that make sense?0
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When Andrea Jenkins turned over Ed Balls in 2015, I could hardly have been happier. Having listened to her on TWAO today, I do hope the voters of Morley and Outwood turf her out at the first available opportunity. Someone posted on here this a.m that she was a " a piece of work" How right they are!. Come back Ed Balls, all is forgiven0
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How can the ERG need time to prepare for the VONC?
It's not like anyone has got to write a 100 page report or something.
Every MP has had plenty of time to consider whether they support May or not. Nobody needs longer to think about it.0 -
Has worked so far! Starmer has done well.grabcocque said:
Corbyn's position has never made any sense, but fortunately for him, it's never had to. Labour are trying very hard to make sure their internal contradictions are never exposed to the unflattering fluorescent lamp of political reality that has done for May's deal.SeanT said:
That's how I understand it. But maybe I am wrong. Brexit is turning into Quantum Mechanics: if you think you understand it, you don't understand it
(copyright: R Feynman)
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Possibly not though: if the Tories eventually settle on a referendum on remain vs May's deal as the only way out of the dark (plausible), Labour will be spared the humiliation of having to present their "jobs first Brexit" to the EU27 to be ceremonially debagged and radished by Monsieur Barnier. Lucky bastards.SeanT said:
Indeed. And they are quite brazen.grabcocque said:
Corbyn's position has never made any sense, but fortunately for him, it's never had to. Labour are trying very hard to make sure their internal contradictions are never exposed to the unflattering fluorescent lamp of political reality that has done for May's deal.SeanT said:
That's how I understand it. But maybe I am wrong. Brexit is turning into Quantum Mechanics: if you think you understand it, you don't understand it
(copyright: R Feynman)
On the telly just now Andrew Neil asked some horrible commie Labour c8nt to spell out Labour's position on any of this: Single Market, CU, etc - and explain the contradictions.
The guy simply ignored him. Refused to answer, and talked about something else.
Eventually this stance is going to be exposed to the ridicule it deserves, and Labour will HAVE to come up with a coherent position. Who knows when.
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Ed Balls has improved immeasurably whilst out of the Commons. Pretty high risk of him reverting to type.SquareRoot said:When Andrea Jenkins turned over Ed Balls in 2015, I could hardly have been happier. Having listened to her on TWAO today, I do hope the voters of Morley and Outwood turf her out at the first available opportunity. Someone posted on here this a.m that she was a " a piece of work" How right they are!. Come back Ed Balls, all is forgiven
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Indeed. I don't support them but I support their calling for this vote and moaning about timing is weak.MikeL said:How can the ERG need time to prepare for the VONC?
It's not like anyone has got to write a 100 page report or something.
Every MP has had plenty of time to consider whether they support May or not. Nobody needs longer to think about it.0 -
Getting their excuses in early I think.kle4 said:
Indeed. I don't support them but I support their calling for this vote and moaning about timing is weak.MikeL said:How can the ERG need time to prepare for the VONC?
It's not like anyone has got to write a 100 page report or something.
Every MP has had plenty of time to consider whether they support May or not. Nobody needs longer to think about it.
(I am green both ways)0 -
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Seriously, she'll be happy knowing 150 of her Parliamentary party haven't supported her. No doubt we'll hear the usual suspects claim how dogged and determined May is and how much we should admire it - a limpet is much the same.AmpfieldAndy said:
Well over 100 MPs voting against her with the certainty her Brexit deal will be defeated should be enough to force her out. She’ll gift power to Labour if she stays after that because if she stays, the DUP will vote with Labour in a no confidence vote that would surely follow.DanSmith said:
The No Confidence Vote isn't of course the end of it as it wasn't with Thatcher in 1990. She won the first round but it was the realisation she wouldn't win the second that did for her. Her Ministers argued they had done their duty voting for her once and didn't feel obliged to support her again.
If May scrapes home the question is whether the Cabinet will simply round on her and tell her to go with dignity now or face mass resignations which will finish her off.
Nothing that happens today will change the fundamental dilemma facing the Government - if they don't pass the WA we are heading for No Deal on 29/3/19 but if they do the Opposition (with the DUP) have the numbers to bring the Government down.0 -
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/trade-wiped-out-if-britain-leaves-with-no-deal-study-warns-x2m5l6jsn\
I expect this to be mocked as Brexit fever or some such. Still, if those doing so have a detailed counter analysis no doubt they will share it.0 -
Well soon we might be having a leadership election conducted under quasi AV.RobD said:Just landed. I take it I haven’t missed much in the last 12 hours...
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Are any ERG MPs out of the country, perhaps negotiating FTAs with Barbados or the Seychelles?kle4 said:
Indeed. I don't support them but I support their calling for this vote and moaning about timing is weak.MikeL said:How can the ERG need time to prepare for the VONC?
It's not like anyone has got to write a 100 page report or something.
Every MP has had plenty of time to consider whether they support May or not. Nobody needs longer to think about it.0 -
If she stays after say 100 of her MPs show no confidence in her, how does that scenario play out when her Brexit Bill is defeated. The DUP side with Labour in a no confidence vote, Brexit is cancelled, there is a general election with May again leading the Tories and Corbyn ends up in power. The Tories who allowed that to happen would be turkey’s voting for Christmas.Andrew said:
Seems a good chance it'll nudge over 100, but not too much more. Maybe 210-105 or thereabouts?AmpfieldAndy said:
Well over 100 MPs voting against her with the certainty her Brexit deal will be defeated should be enough to force her out.
To make her think of resigning will surely need quite a bit more.
I don’t see it happening myself. She’ll be forced out by those on her own side.0 -
Radished? Dare I ask? I dare.grabcocque said:Labour will be spared the humiliation of having to present their "jobs first Brexit" to the EU27 to be ceremonially debagged and radished by Monsieur Barnier. Lucky bastards.
What is that?0 -
Yes, they pull your breeches down and push a large radish right up your-Anorak said:
Radished? Dare I ask? I dare.grabcocque said:Labour will be spared the humiliation of having to present their "jobs first Brexit" to the EU27 to be ceremonially debagged and radished by Monsieur Barnier. Lucky bastards.
What is that?0 -
Not by the looks of the declared numbers, unless she resigns anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well soon we might be having a leadership election conducted under quasi AV.RobD said:Just landed. I take it I haven’t missed much in the last 12 hours...
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So not happy that Brady has followed the rules requiring him to hold the vote "as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing". Idiots.IanB2 said:
Might I suggest that "preparation" doesn't seem to be the Brexiters' strong point?The_Apocalypse said:0 -
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Certainly the idea that she can scrape through by a handful of votes and then just carry on as before is wide of the mark. A PM who has the confidence of less than a third of the Commons is in an impossible position.stodge said:
Seriously, she'll be happy knowing 150 of her Parliamentary party haven't supported her. No doubt we'll hear the usual suspects claim how dogged and determined May is and how much we should admire it - a limpet is much the same.AmpfieldAndy said:
Well over 100 MPs voting against her with the certainty her Brexit deal will be defeated should be enough to force her out. She’ll gift power to Labour if she stays after that because if she stays, the DUP will vote with Labour in a no confidence vote that would surely follow.DanSmith said:
The No Confidence Vote isn't of course the end of it as it wasn't with Thatcher in 1990. She won the first round but it was the realisation she wouldn't win the second that did for her. Her Ministers argued they had done their duty voting for her once and didn't feel obliged to support her again.
If May scrapes home the question is whether the Cabinet will simply round on her and tell her to go with dignity now or face mass resignations which will finish her off.
Nothing that happens today will change the fundamental dilemma facing the Government - if they don't pass the WA we are heading for No Deal on 29/3/19 but if they do the Opposition (with the DUP) have the numbers to bring the Government down.0 -
Ouch.grabcocque said:
Yes, they pull your breeches down and push a large radish right up your-Anorak said:
Radished? Dare I ask? I dare.grabcocque said:Labour will be spared the humiliation of having to present their "jobs first Brexit" to the EU27 to be ceremonially debagged and radished by Monsieur Barnier. Lucky bastards.
What is that?
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The ERG have fucked up every opportunity to advance their cause.
Their serial arrogance and incompetence is also indicative of the ideology they support of course.0 -
It seems like I have got this wrong and May is expected to walk it - but what I cannot understand really is whether Ken Clarke's position from PMQ's applies to all Conservative remain-leaning MPs. I guess if I was a remain inclined MP whose constituents voted leave I might vote to boot May out tonight in the privacy of the ballot and the hope that it would throw all the pieces of the Brexit jigsaw up in the air looking for a cancellation; Do contributors on here expect remainers to pretty solidly back May tonight?0
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It probably means that about 20 of them will vote for her.HYUFD said:May has just reached the 158 MPs she needs to stay Tory leader and win the VONC according to BBC news research of public declarations of support with 33 Tory MPs declaring they will vote against her.
Though of course in the privacy of the ballot booth nothing is guaranteed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-465357390 -
Have they though? Their cause is impotent obstructionism.Scott_P said:The ERG have fucked up every opportunity to advance their cause.
Their serial arrogance and incompetence is also indicative of the ideology they support of course.0 -
52:48 is all she needs to tell the losers to suck it upanothernick said:Certainly the idea that she can scrape through by a handful of votes and then just carry on as before is wide of the mark. A PM who has the confidence of less than a third of the Commons is in an impossible position.
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There doesn't seem to be anything the ERG can do that doesn't have the opposite effect.Scott_P said:0 -
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Labour's position really does not matter until the next election. Until then, it is enough to rail against "this Tory Brexit" which "fails our six tests". It is one small consolation for the impotence of opposition.SeanT said:
Indeed. And they are quite brazen.grabcocque said:
Corbyn's position has never made any sense, but fortunately for him, it's never had to. Labour are trying very hard to make sure their internal contradictions are never exposed to the unflattering fluorescent lamp of political reality that has done for May's deal.SeanT said:
That's how I understand it. But maybe I am wrong. Brexit is turning into Quantum Mechanics: if you think you understand it, you don't understand it
(copyright: R Feynman)
On the telly just now Andrew Neil asked some horrible commie Labour c8nt to spell out Labour's position on any of this: Single Market, CU, etc - and explain the contradictions.
The guy simply ignored him. Refused to answer, and talked about something else.
Eventually this stance is going to be exposed to the ridicule it deserves, and Labour will HAVE to come up with a coherent position. Who knows when.0 -
Twitter seems a pretty unreliable guide to any sort of election - nevermind one of 300 MPs.
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I'm a big fan of STV, but Irish TDs are not the best advert for it. I think it more accurately reflects the will of the voters - but that doesn't mean I will like the will of the voters.Richard_Nabavi said:
Have you looked at Irish TDs?IanB2 said:
If only people looked at our voting system and asked how it can be defended when it is the only way that the off-the-scale lunatics with jobs-for-life in safe seats that comprise the ERG can continue to pretend they represent anyone other than themselves.DavidL said:
That assumes May doesn’t do a deal with Labour to get a deal through despite their opposition. I am struggling to see the ERG staying in the party after this, particularly if May wins comfortably.Beverley_C said:
No. The ERG could resign the whip and leave May stranded with no ability to get any legislation of any kind passed. Then they just wait for the clock to tick down to March 29th.SandyRentool said:
This is very important. She can renegotiate a Labour-friendly deal and get it through parliament. The ERG will huff and puff, but will be impotent.Scott_P said:
Remember - the ERG will get their hard Brexit if they act like complete and utter b*****ds for the next three months.
No Deal is the default
Anyhow, with a strong 1/4, or more, of the electorate supporting no deal there aren't many voting systems that wouldn't give seats to ERG-like MPs. Many would probably give them more seats.0 -
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It is lose lose for may really. The numbers just aren't there for a deal and no party challenge for 12 months doesn't stop utter deadlock. And it isn't necessary to moan like a fool about 'usual suspects' (making ones self a usual suspect at the same time only in reverse) but whatever her qualities she's no stronger from this unless she wins and the defeated announce they are duty bound to back her deal now. And that isnt happening.0
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This. Disgraceful incompetence all round.Scott_P said:0
This discussion has been closed.