Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
If Theresa wins what will be Boris’s best approach? I think he’ll swing behind her deal and present himself as a kind of unify-the-party-and-country arbitrator.
Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.
Plausible. Honestly I don't know.
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.
Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.
More than that.
We can bin all precedents. We live in a new era. Therefore I think that result would be seen, in the circs, as a positive triumph. A 2 to 1 victory? Corbyn LOST his by 3 to 1, remember.
She'd be totally vindicated, and the ERG humbled and enfeebled.
May clinging on when 100+ of her MPs think she is inept would require an intervention.
Strictly speaking more than 100 will likely think her inept even if only that number vote against her.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
Apparently Elphicke has had the whip restored also, and he's no May fan.
Basically the cancel each other out, so why take the political hit of reinstating a sexual harasser?
Then again, it's been clear for some time the Chief Whip has been running on Max Stupid for some time.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.
The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!
You HAVE been away a long time. I'm now a happily married man (albeit to a woman less than half my age) and we don't discuss those unseemly rumours from my past. Ahem.
Hearty congratulations you old rogue.
I've been a bit tied up ... ( No not in THAT sense .. ... although, one lives in hope !! ) .. the quacks have had their way and seem to have, likely as by dint of chance as much else, prolonged my tenure by at least a new Prime Minister ... bugger, that might not be too long ..
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
Could Parliament pass a law making it unlawful for the PM not to revoke Article 50?
The complexity of the 'where goeth brexit?' puzzle is a thing of beauty for someone like me who relishes this type of thing. I love solving seemingly intractable problems. The more seemingly intractable a problem is the more I love solving it. It's in my DNA. And I am almost there on this one. I have the model built and I've run it a few times to make sure it holds up. It does. But I'm missing one final piece of info to feed in and am hoping that somebody very very serious and authoritative on here can supply it. What I need is the answer to the following question:
With a gun to their heads (which they think is loaded but isn't, because let's avoid violent imagery) and forced to choose between and ONLY between the deal and an article 50 extension for another referendum, which one would the DUP plump for?
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal. Neither will most others in the house of commons. If the Tories want no deal they will get it, I wonder if some Conservatives will get cold feet about doing that to the country though...
There are more than enough Conservative MPs who prefer no deal over any deal to ensure that May's deal will be defeated unless large numbers of Opposition MPs vote for the deal.
There is more than enough blame to go around for me to blame them for the resulting mess, as well as May and the ERG, etc.
With a gun to their heads (which they think is loaded but isn't, because let's avoid violent imagery) and forced to choose between and ONLY between the deal and an article 50 extension for another referendum, which one would the DUP plump for?
Avoiding an Irish sea border is more important to the DUP than Brexit.
I suspect Team May decided this was the best time to ride out the Tory revolt. Currently she's trying to do something constructive. She's going to fail in her efforts but better to be seen trying than having already failed.
Yet she still seems more popular than 'ol Bonehead. Jezza is so last year nowadays. If he can't make gains now, he's dog meat.
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.
The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!
You HAVE been away a long time. I'm now a happily married man (albeit to a woman less than half my age) and we don't discuss those unseemly rumours from my past. Ahem.
Hearty congratulations you old rogue.
I've been a bit tied up ... ( No not in THAT sense .. ... although, one lives in hope !! ) .. the quacks have had their way and seem to have, likely as by dint of chance as much else, prolonged my tenure by at least a new Prime Minister ... bugger, that might not be too long ..
Herodotus has written - he wants his Fountain of Youth back!
This clip of Andrew Bridgen and James Cleverley, two educated middle-aged men, refusing like petulant toddlers to speak to each other, or even look at each other, is breathtaking:
My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?
My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.
I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
Yes - I think we probably can.
Can I add 2 horses, 3 cats, 6 rabbits and 18 fish ?
I think there are a limited numbers of paid cabinet post allowed.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.
I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.
Hardly that surprising given how IDS behaved under Major. He has no understanding of loyalty or much else, frankly. Almost as stupid and incompetent as Corbyn. If Brexit doesn't do for the Tories, Universal Credit will.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal. Neither will most others in the house of commons. If the Tories want no deal they will get it, I wonder if some Conservatives will get cold feet about doing that to the country though...
There are more than enough Conservative MPs who prefer no deal over any deal to ensure that May's deal will be defeated unless large numbers of Opposition MPs vote for the deal.
The only thing she is likely to get through is a second referendum. The Tories, from May to individual Conservative backbenchers will have to decide if no deal is better than whatever they would need to do for the alternative.
Edit: Unless the ERG and other Tories come around to the deal I guess...
This clip of Andrew Bridgen and James Cleverley, two educated middle-aged men, refusing like petulant toddlers to speak to each other, or even look at each other, is breathtaking:
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
Could Parliament pass a law making it unlawful for the PM not to revoke Article 50?
No, because the Executive has control of Parliamentary time so would have to introduce such a Bill or provide it with time. The Commons only has ultimate authority because the Executive must retain its support - but if the Commons will not use that power then the Executive has much more power.
In 2003 many a Tory MP, including Michael Howard, publicly expressed support for Iain Duncan Smith as leader. He then lost by 90 to 75.
To point out the bleeding obvious, saying 'I will support May' is not synonymous with 'I will vote for May'. It could be 'I will support May as we lower her political career into the woodchipper'.
Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.
Plausible. Honestly I don't know.
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.
Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.
I reckon it'll be 200-100, give or take. Enough.
Hearing that I may be wrong about Charlie Elphicke - that's a shocking call if so with a trial ongoing (and the jury delibrating!)
And what a day for the return of Jack W! I hope the Lib Dem canvassers have been keeping you satisfied and occupied Sir...
I've got my Charlie Elphicke's mixed up with my Craig MacKinlay's haven't I? Sorry folks. Will take a 30 second dentention in ConHome. I can't manage any longer.
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.
In 2003 many a Tory MP, including Michael Howard, publicly expressed support for Iain Duncan Smith as leader. He then lost by 90 to 75.
To point out the bleeding obvious, saying 'I will support May' is not synonymous with 'I will vote for May'. It could be 'I will support May as we lower her political career into the woodchipper'.
Indeed, but c'mon, some of them in 2003 were deliberately intending to mislead, and some are now too.
Lenin said he supported Arthur Henderson the same way a rope supports a hanged man.
The question for me is whether this has been a pre-emptive move by May and her supporters to get the No Confidence vote, held, done and dusted. It might seem reasonable to remove the distraction at this time.
Of course, it could all backfire just as the 2017 GE did.
I still think she will win but the "line" has to be 200 MPs - fewer than that in favour and it looks very bad for her authority and legitimacy even if she tries to carry on.
The extent to which the vaguely worded hint of standing down before the next GE has bought off discontent won't be clear for now (if it works) and the polls and future events may yet determine whether that commitment comes back to haunt her down the line.
The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.
Tonight Theresa will deliver another of her meaningless statements, and the drift will continue. Over christmas and the New Year the pound will continue to drop.
The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.
That's probably what I would do. Although, I suspect we'd still end up with a dog's breakfast in the Commons, with no one being able to form a stable government.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.
I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.
So we get to mid March, supermarkets warn of imminent food shortages, manufacturing industry is screaming blue murder, the pound is collapsing and the country is on the verge of panic and the government is chartering planes to fly in vital drugs. Parliament says hang on a minute, we can avoid all this by revoking. The government says, no chance mate, were going over the cliff. That would be preposterous, and politically unsustainable.
Hardly that surprising given how IDS behaved under Major. He has no understanding of loyalty or much else, frankly. Almost as stupid and incompetent as Corbyn. If Brexit doesn't do for the Tories, Universal Credit will.
His CV lies should have meant he was never given a voice again. Instead he found god. Serial liar, serial incompetent.
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
There is a lot of anger from Labour MPs already, some centrist types as well, blackmailing them by running down the clock could work but it could just make them even more angry and stubborn. Considering how easy reversing Article 50 now is Labour MPs might be going for the A50 revocation up to the last minutes.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Tonight Theresa will deliver another of her meaningless statements, and the drift will continue. Over christmas and the New Year the pound will continue to drop.
The £ is up a cent against the Euro and nearly two cents against the dollar today. Clearly a leadership confidence vote is a positive in the eyes of the foreign exchange traders.
Tonight Theresa will deliver another of her meaningless statements, and the drift will continue. Over christmas and the New Year the pound will continue to drop.
The £ is up a cent against the Euro and nearly two cents against the dollar today. Clearly a leadership confidence vote is a positive in the eyes of the foreign exchange traders.
Two months more of drift and stalled, failed progress, however, won't be.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.
I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.
So we get to mid March, supermarkets warn of imminent food shortages, manufacturing industry is screaming blue murder, the pound is collapsing and the country is on the verge of panic and the government is chartering planes to fly in vital drugs. Parliament says hang on a minute, we can avoid all this by revoking. The government says, no chance mate, were going over the cliff. That would be preposterous, and politically unsustainable.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.
I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.
So we get to mid March, supermarkets warn of imminent food shortages, manufacturing industry is screaming blue murder, the pound is collapsing and the country is on the verge of panic and the government is chartering planes to fly in vital drugs. Parliament says hang on a minute, we can avoid all this by revoking. The government says, no chance mate, were going over the cliff. That would be preposterous, and politically unsustainable.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
Conventional wisdom would suggest the government would get the blame, but Labour's standing is so poor that the blame might be apportioned equally.
Mr. Cocque, is it from your chicken smuggling days?
It was from the made up middle names on my Tory membership card that had been placed there by well-meaning friends in the days when I was a party member.
I was given the fictitious middle names "Lerwick deTocqueville Grabcocque".
I still have friends who call me Grabcocque or Grabby or (usually) Cocky. Even him indoors calls me Cocky. Stupid names stick.
The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.
That's probably what I would do. Although, I suspect we'd still end up with a dog's breakfast in the Commons, with no one being able to form a stable government.
Before HYUFD gets here, I'm inclined to agree. I think the public "support" for the Deal has waned in recent days and I don't think May has done herself any favours marching round talking about nothing else.
With the economy slowing, however, the backdrop to the election won't be as pretty as before for the Government as well as general fatigue and annoyance.
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
There is a lot of anger from Labour MPs already, some centrist types as well, blackmailing them by running down the clock could work but it could just make them even more angry and stubborn. Considering how easy reversing Article 50 now is Labour MPs might be going for the A50 revocation up to the last minutes.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Have I got this wrong?
One of the common themes when ‘the person in the street’ is questioned is that ‘they wish they’d get on with it!’ That suggests that if MP’s on either side go on ‘messing’ about, as it will be seen, wil be electorally counter-productive.
I'm sceptical. Any exit poll would have been worthless, as there was no previous referendum to compare it with. That's why john Curtice refused to do one.
Nor do I think that Survation and YouGov would privately be peddling information that conflicted with their published results.
The truth is more prosaic. The value bet was Leave, in every kind of market.
199/72. Cheekily, someone has placed May in the No column, so it's 200 to 71.
Maybe she'll vote against herself, she might be privately very bored indeed of her thankless task. I have to admit even though the office of PM is plenty more money than I personally earn, I wouldn't actually take the job right now.
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.
I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.
So we get to mid March, supermarkets warn of imminent food shortages, manufacturing industry is screaming blue murder, the pound is collapsing and the country is on the verge of panic and the government is chartering planes to fly in vital drugs. Parliament says hang on a minute, we can avoid all this by revoking. The government says, no chance mate, were going over the cliff. That would be preposterous, and politically unsustainable.
Sooner or later the message that's been pushed since 2016 - "We must give people what they voted for, even if it ruins the idiots and propels them into a future they didn't have a clue might result from their sacred democratic choice" - will bring diminishing returns.
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.
But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
Mr. Cocque, is it from your chicken smuggling days?
It was from the made up middle names on my Tory membership card that had been placed there by well meaning friends in the days when I was a party member.
I was given the fictitious middle names "Lerwick deTocqueville Grabcocque".
I still have friends who call me Grabcocque or Grabby or (usually) Cocky. Even him indoors calls me Cocky. Stupid names stick.
Parents should, sometimes, be a bit more careful when selecting names for their infants. My wife has a pair of relations who, a la the Beckhams, named their child after the place where the (ahem) significant event was thought to have place. My parents gave me a very unusual name which has sometimes been useful, sometimes not. They also insisted, for family reasons on giving a middle name starting Q. It’s very difficult to develop a flowing signature, or when initially something.
On our way to St James's Park, my mum and I sneaked a peak at the "media paddock" in front of Parliament at around midday, saw John Whittingdale being interviewed by Euro News(?), and of course we also saw the People's Vote flag wavers and a rather bizarre sculpture consisting of the heads of May, Boris, Gove and Davis all attached to the same body, labelled "Brexit Monstrosity".
That's the stock market that is down 1000 points in the last 6 months - that's the currency which is down 17 cents on the dollar from its best level in the last year.
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.
It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...
Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.
Comments
Then again, it's been clear for some time the Chief Whip has been running on Max Stupid for some time.
I've been a bit tied up ... ( No not in THAT sense ..
With a gun to their heads (which they think is loaded but isn't, because let's avoid violent imagery) and forced to choose between and ONLY between the deal and an article 50 extension for another referendum, which one would the DUP plump for?
Coincidentally the same as the number of votes against May.
a) retire after Brexit day
b) bring the MV before Christmas
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072884319495118848
There is more than enough blame to go around for me to blame them for the resulting mess, as well as May and the ERG, etc.
Yet she still seems more popular than 'ol Bonehead. Jezza is so last year nowadays. If he can't make gains now, he's dog meat.
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1072811633788010497
Brexit has infantilised everything.
Con voters want May to remain PM by 58% to 28% (All voters 40% to 34%).
Swap 18 fish for a fish tank and you should be ok
Ditto Javid.......
#flith
You've seen youir fair share of Tory leaders brought down Mr Jack - What do you think's going to happen this time?
Generalisations are always wrong.
(Yes, I know that's childish too but I don't care)
Edit: Unless the ERG and other Tories come around to the deal I guess...
Now 198 to 71, 46 undeclared.
A group you can count on one hand. Three against two means a 50% majority.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
Data breach traced to a Chinese intelligence-gathering effort, the New York Times reports.
https://www.cnet.com/news/chinese-spies-reportedly-behind-massive-marriott-hack/
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.
Lenin said he supported Arthur Henderson the same way a rope supports a hanged man.
Of course, it could all backfire just as the 2017 GE did.
I still think she will win but the "line" has to be 200 MPs - fewer than that in favour and it looks very bad for her authority and legitimacy even if she tries to carry on.
The extent to which the vaguely worded hint of standing down before the next GE has bought off discontent won't be clear for now (if it works) and the polls and future events may yet determine whether that commitment comes back to haunt her down the line.
The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.
It doesn't alter the parliamentary maths of BREXIT. It's a complete mess. Utter chaos of the first order.
Rory needs a hug.
In fact if we get that late wouldn't it be quicker to revoke article 50 as May's deal would require more votes?
As we get later May's deal actually becomes impossible without an extension whereas article 50 could be revoked in the final hours (maybe tens of minutes?)
Have I got this wrong?
Also it's pronounced grah-COE.
199/72. Cheekily, someone has placed May in the No column, so it's 200 to 71.
The Brexit Short: How Hedge Funds Used Private Polls to Make Millions
Private polls—and a timely ‘concession’ from the face of Leave—allowed the funds to make millions off the pound’s collapse.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
They do, however, rarely tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth and exceptions (although a minority) always exist.
Sterling up over 1%.
Employment at record levels.
What's not to like?
I was given the fictitious middle names "Lerwick deTocqueville Grabcocque".
I still have friends who call me Grabcocque or Grabby or (usually) Cocky. Even him indoors calls me Cocky. Stupid names stick.
With the economy slowing, however, the backdrop to the election won't be as pretty as before for the Government as well as general fatigue and annoyance.
That suggests that if MP’s on either side go on ‘messing’ about, as it will be seen, wil be electorally counter-productive.
I may have been making a wordplay joke
Nor do I think that Survation and YouGov would privately be peddling information that conflicted with their published results.
The truth is more prosaic. The value bet was Leave, in every kind of market.
I have to admit even though the office of PM is plenty more money than I personally earn, I wouldn't actually take the job right now.
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
My parents gave me a very unusual name which has sometimes been useful, sometimes not. They also insisted, for family reasons on giving a middle name starting Q.
It’s very difficult to develop a flowing signature, or when initially something.