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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    secret ballot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    edited December 2018
    Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.

    I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.
  • However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
  • Here comes Jezbollah to spend his 6 questions discussing bus services in rural Northumberland
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    The “most sophisticated electorate in the world” - glad to see irony is not dead!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2018
    The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the endless run of the disaster.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    Agreed. It makes it harder to shift her but numbers are numbers and if cannot act it doesn't matter.

    The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the disaster.

    Not if the disaster is on going. I won't be able to enjoy my roast lamb and Christmas pudding.
  • Interesting Corbyn play - we want the vote
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.

    I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.

    Lose lose, or won but not enough to prevent a need to resign lose?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Interesting Corbyn play - we want the vote

    VONC ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    kle4 said:

    However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    Agreed. It makes it harder to shift her but numbers are numbers and if cannot act it doesn't matter.

    The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the disaster.

    Not if the disaster is on going. I won't be able to enjoy my roast lamb and Christmas pudding.
    Not sure I'd enjoy that combination either.
  • However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.
  • Even today she still is a mountain mile ahead of Corbyn
  • OortOort Posts: 96

    Interesting Corbyn play - we want the vote

    He was wise not to table a Commons VONC.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Even today she still is a mountain mile ahead of Corbyn

    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I salute your loyalty.
  • How can Corbyn scream that she is acting contemptuously of the House and then NOT make a specific point about it? She's frit. He's frit. They're just talking at each other. Its pointless.
  • OortOort Posts: 96

    The “most sophisticated electorate in the world” - glad to see irony is not dead!

    Haha! I'm thinking of Nicholas Soames right now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.
    I think she will have to offer / threaten the HoC a 2nd ref: back my deal or else we will defer A50 and take the decision to the country.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.

    I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.

    I think she will win. That famous tin ear and a d*mn-you-all attitude means that if she gets 158+ she will stay.

    The question is - are there 158 loons in the Tory party? Today's the day we find out.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2018
    SPIN traitor market nudging up to 108. With the caveat that I'm not going to touch it, I'd guess 35%+ should be the midpoint. That's 110 if everyone votes, but ......

    The unknown: will a substantial number refuse to vote for either? In 1995 Major beat Redwood 218-89, but there were 8 abstentions, 12 spoiled, 2 didn't vote.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    If May wins I think the ERG will completely stuffed. May can come to parliament and offer a free vote, saying 'here is my deal, take it or leave it'. If the deal is rejected then a motion to revoke A50 can be put. If carried, BREXIT is over; if lost we leave with no deal. MPs need to stop going round in circles, wittering about a people's vote and instead recognise that there are only three choices. Put in that way I would expect revocation to prevail.
  • Come on Jeremy. Call her a gutless yellow coward.
  • So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.

    I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.

    If she loses it's hard to see how the Tories avoid a split. The membership will go for an ERG candidate and this will drive out Europhile MPs. If the MPs don't give the membership the choice of an ERG candidate this will drive out a good number of members.

    But even if she wins it will only be a short stay of execution, there will be a substantial number of votes against her - more than 100 I would say. I think she will try to carry on in those circumstances but her authority will be no more than that of the Downing Street cat, there is no way that she could push any withdrawal deal through the Commons.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    kle4 said:

    However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    Agreed. It makes it harder to shift her but numbers are numbers and if cannot act it doesn't matter.

    The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the disaster.

    Not if the disaster is on going. I won't be able to enjoy my roast lamb and Christmas pudding.
    The I want to go back and enjoy my Christmas Pudding vibe might save May as well. Far better than spending the holiday fretting about leadership elections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    May either needs to win big, or lose. A result of something like 160-130 would be horrendous for the Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.
    Perhaps the swivel-eyed loons will withdraw themselves from the whip and leave her stranded. A sort of DUP++ :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    Corbyn stayed on with 190 odd against didn;'t he !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
  • She is taking Corbyn apart
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    Pulpstar said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    Corbyn stayed on with 190 odd against didn;'t he !
    Indeed. Makes a "she doesn't have the confidence of her MPs" line a bit awks.
  • Remember folks. Its in the best interests of the Labour Party that May wins with gaping political wounds in her side. Thats why Corbyn has allowed May to utterly humiliate him.

    Obviously.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,409

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    She's full of shit, more like.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
  • She is taking Corbyn apart

    She's full of shit, more like.
    Sad response
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    May either needs to win big, or lose. A result of something like 160-130 would be horrendous for the Tories.

    I think the prospect of that will force her out tonight.

    My book: i'm on *May to lose confidence vote* for decent stakes at 3/1, 4/1 & 5/1
  • Mrs C, please clarify: do you consider loons to be the ones voting for May, or against her?

    Mr. Pulpstar, nonsense. The Supreme Leader won an overwhelming victory, with 40 MPs bravely supporting his undoubted mastery of the party, and a paltry 170 or so lickspittle capitalist pigdogs opposing him for their own bourgeois reasons.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Come on Jeremy. Call her a gutless yellow coward.

    She is a Tory, not a Lib Dem!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Let me guess - Masterton's question - Will the PM agree the sun always shines under a Tory Gov't.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Remember folks. Its in the best interests of the Labour Party that May wins with gaping political wounds in her side. Thats why Corbyn has allowed May to utterly humiliate him.

    Obviously.

    Eight dimensional chess. Corbyn's a strategic genius.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited December 2018

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    I think she misjudged the mood of the house on the last question when she was trying to crack jokes at Corbyn's expense.

    Tory backbenches seemed silent. And unimpressed...
  • The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    It makes for a good 20s instanta video though.
  • GIN1138 said:

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    I think she misjudged the mood of the house on the last question when she was trying to crack jokes at Corbyn's expense.

    Tory backbenches seems silent. And unimpressed...
    You are listening to a different pmqs to me
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Mrs C, please clarify: do you consider loons to be the ones voting for May, or against her?

    Mr. Pulpstar, nonsense. The Supreme Leader won an overwhelming victory, with 40 MPs bravely supporting his undoubted mastery of the party, and a paltry 170 or so lickspittle capitalist pigdogs opposing him for their own bourgeois reasons.

    I bet Sunil's got a graph for that one. (No Sunil, please, don't! It was a joke!)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,409
    edited December 2018

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    She's full of shit, more like.
    Sad response
    Extended version: She doesn't answer the questions, sounds robotic, deflects from the topic by ranting on about Labour and looking back at the referendum.

    She is truly hopeless and is unfit for high office.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    My word she got from the Commons to No 10 quickly. Watching Ch 4.
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    edited December 2018
    Sajid Javid says a leadership contest will be seen as "self-indulgent and wrong". Not like his own leadership bid published in the Spectator shortly before Graham Brady's announcement then?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    She isn't really. She's simply attacking Labour rather than answering key and important questions. She is doing it competently enough that it might swing a few more Tory MP votes her way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    GIN1138 said:

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    I think she misjudged the mood of the house on the last question when she was trying to crack jokes at Corbyn's expense.

    Tory backbenches seems silent. And unimpressed...
    Confess, I am not listening but that bastion of the right-wing press the Gaurdian seems to agree with Big_G today:

    "May says, whatever U-turn comes next in Labour’s policy, Corbyn will sent out his henchmen to reveal it to the world - the “inconstant gardner”. Someone will explain the joke to Corbyn later, she says.

    Tories cheer loudly."
  • Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    Honesty. Modesty. Compassion.

    A giant compared to the pond scum that represents the Tory Party factions today
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Barnesian said:

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    She isn't really. She's simply attacking Labour rather than answering key and important questions. She is doing it competently enough that it might swing a few more Tory MP votes her way.
    Corbyn isn't asking key questions. He is posturing, preening and ignoring the logical and political inconsistencies in his own position(s)

    All he can do is jump on yet another outrage bus - he hasn't got a positive contribution to make.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    Labour don't want a new tory leader, do they? I don't immediately see why they would.
  • Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.

    I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.
    Perhaps the swivel-eyed loons will withdraw themselves from the whip and leave her stranded. A sort of DUP++ :D
    This "swivel-eyed loons" nonsense being frothed at anyone that doesn't want to follow May's completely failed strategy has to stop.

    Her crap deal can't get through parliament get over it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited December 2018
    Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, please clarify: do you consider loons to be the ones voting for May, or against her?

    The Loons will vote against her. I am hoping that the Tory party does not consist of 159 loons and assorted other folk....

    Today we find out.

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    PeterC said:

    If May wins I think the ERG will completely stuffed. May can come to parliament and offer a free vote, saying 'here is my deal, take it or leave it'. If the deal is rejected then a motion to revoke A50 can be put. If carried, BREXIT is over; if lost we leave with no deal. MPs need to stop going round in circles, wittering about a people's vote and instead recognise that there are only three choices. Put in that way I would expect revocation to prevail.

    If May could get Parliament to finally commit to some course of action then she would, arguably, have done the country a great service - even if said course of action is bound to be widely loathed in the country, because the country is so split. Though I would say that, because I'm hoping above all to avoid another referendum.

    That said, there's absolutely nothing in her behaviour to date which suggests that she would commit to such a course of action. If she survives tonight's motion of confidence then she might just spend the whole period between now and March 29th offering nothing but her deal or no deal, and playing a game of chicken with the House of Commons over the choice.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    A defeat caused in part by some of the same Eurosceptic bottom-feeders who are now trying to bring Mrs May down.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2018

    Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.
    Film: Constant Gardener.

    Inconsistent Labour MP: Barry Gardiner.

    Oh my sides, etc, etc.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The ERG disproved zeno's paradox.

    47.999999999999... = 48
  • Ken Clarke hits the nail on the head and gives big boost to TM
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Ken Clarke being very helpful to the bloody difficult woman.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Helpfully the Daily Mail has a list of possible Tory leader contenders. Let’s examine their records.

    Dominic Raab – a man who, despite having a seat in the South East, was unaware of the importance of the Dover – Calais route to Britain’s trade

    Andrea Leadsom – famous or, perhaps, infamous for having allowed a wholly exaggerated account of her work and pre-Parliamentary experience to be put about. In normal circles, such exaggerations are known as lies and would get you disciplined and/or sacked not promoted to the Cabinet, where she has shone at nothing.

    Sajid Javid – an ex-investment banker from Deutsche Bank (a red flag in itself) with all the charisma of a Dalek. His main claim to be leader is, apparently, where he was brought up. Perhaps we could make his Mum and Dad leader instead.

    Amber Rudd – has a tiny majority, a questionable City career behind her and was not well-served by her officials at the Home Office. But at least had the decency and balls to show up at debates. Has been rude about Boris Johnson. So there is that in favour of her.

    Penny Mordaunt – lied during the referendum about Turkey’s accession. Can swim. And make speeches with double entendres in them. If the House of Commons ever needs a front of house manager for its gym, she’d be a shoo-in.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg – Jesus wept.

    Gavin Williamson – Embarrassed himself and the country by shouting “shut up” at Russia during the Skripal affair. Could we not give him some raffia baskets to play with instead?

    Michael Gove – has a brain. But not as big a brain as he thinks he has. Utterly untrustworthy. Is apparently doing good work at Defra. He should stay there.

    Boris Johnson – a serial liar. His only achievement as Foreign Secretary was to ensure that a British citizen locked up abroad in a country not known for its good treatment of women prisoners had her sentence lengthened.

    David Davis – lazy, self-important and achieved nothing as Brexit Secretary. Has spent the rest of the time concocting a fairy story that if he had only been given power he could have achieved wondrous things. Everything he said about Brexit before he became Brexit secretary has turned out to be a lie or wrong.

    Jeremy Hunt – gets confused about where his wife is from. Claimed that the EU was like the Soviet Union, his combination of offensiveness and historical inaccuracy doubtless an attempt to make people remember who he is.

    Esther McVey – Managed to lose her seat in 2015. No other known achievements.

    Oh – a late entrant.

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    edited December 2018
    Theresa May cancels this evening's vote of confidence in her leadership - http://bit.ly/2BcqzuB via @newsthump
  • Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.

    George Canning, 119 days.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.
    Yes, I know that Corbyn is a gardener (so what?), and that there is a Le Carre book called the Constant Gardener but what is the link? – I don't get it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I think May will see off the baying mob and rise to further greatness like Justinian after Nika.

    That ones for MD.
  • Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Don't worry, Corbyn didn't understand it either.

    He's obviously not a Le Carre fan - the wrong side tends to win in his novels!
  • Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    Honesty. Modesty. Compassion.

    A giant compared to the pond scum that represents the Tory Party factions today
    The Churchill quote seems appropriate.

    A modest man with much to be modest about.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    If May wins this, I think it could make it a lot easier to peel the DUP off to support a parliamentary VONC.

    That want the deal gone, they (with a heavy heart) therefore need May gone. If the Tories remove one alleyway for removing May, the DUP would presumably more likely to support the other?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.
    Yes, I know that Corbyn is a gardener (so what?), and that there is a Le Carre book called the Constant Gardener but what is the link? – I don't get it.
    Barry Gardiner...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    PeterC said:

    If May wins I think the ERG will completely stuffed. May can come to parliament and offer a free vote, saying 'here is my deal, take it or leave it'. If the deal is rejected then a motion to revoke A50 can be put. If carried, BREXIT is over; if lost we leave with no deal. MPs need to stop going round in circles, wittering about a people's vote and instead recognise that there are only three choices. Put in that way I would expect revocation to prevail.

    If May could get Parliament to finally commit to some course of action then she would, arguably, have done the country a great service - even if said course of action is bound to be widely loathed in the country, because the country is so split. Though I would say that, because I'm hoping above all to avoid another referendum.

    That said, there's absolutely nothing in her behaviour to date which suggests that she would commit to such a course of action. If she survives tonight's motion of confidence then she might just spend the whole period between now and March 29th offering nothing but her deal or no deal, and playing a game of chicken with the House of Commons over the choice.
    Yes, probably. We're pretty screwed
  • Mr. kle4, very harsh to compare Philip May to Justinian's wife!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*

    She's not an MP.
  • Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*

    Yes.

    We voted to take back control, not to have an unelected Prime Minister.
  • Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.

    George Canning, 119 days.
    Cheers. I could see that record being smashed if May loses today.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.

    George Canning, 119 days.
    Though to be fair, he died in office, rather than being deposed. Goderich who succeeded him had to resign after 144 days.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Boris would command the confidence of the house if he gets through to the final two I think. I simply don't think there are 7 MPs prepared to vote Corbyn in.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048

    Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*

    She's not an MP.
    Nor was Earl Grey.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    If anyone is backing the possibility or not of a by-election in Peterborough, here is the court report from The Peterborough Telegraph.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/crime/peterborough-mp-fiona-onasanya-lied-persistently-and-deliberately-court-told-1-8737332
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    May has just reached the 158 MPs she needs to stay Tory leader and win the VONC according to BBC news research of public declarations of support with 33 Tory MPs declaring they will vote against her.

    Though of course in the privacy of the ballot booth nothing is guaranteed

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Oort said:

    Sajid Javid says a leadership contest will be seen as "self-indulgent and wrong". Not like his own leadership bid published in the Spectator shortly before Graham Brady's announcement then?

    Totally different. For reasons.

    Of course he might be be truthful - he would no doubt prefer he be made leader uncontested
  • Ken Clarke.

    Legend.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.
    Yes, I know that Corbyn is a gardener (so what?), and that there is a Le Carre book called the Constant Gardener but what is the link? – I don't get it.
    Barry Gardiner...
    Er what? A pun on Gardiner's name? Dear me, who writes this garbage?
This discussion has been closed.