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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe
Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May.
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I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
The question is - are there 158 loons in the Tory party? Today's the day we find out.
The unknown: will a substantial number refuse to vote for either? In 1995 Major beat Redwood 218-89, but there were 8 abstentions, 12 spoiled, 2 didn't vote.
But even if she wins it will only be a short stay of execution, there will be a substantial number of votes against her - more than 100 I would say. I think she will try to carry on in those circumstances but her authority will be no more than that of the Downing Street cat, there is no way that she could push any withdrawal deal through the Commons.
Obviously.
My book: i'm on *May to lose confidence vote* for decent stakes at 3/1, 4/1 & 5/1
Mr. Pulpstar, nonsense. The Supreme Leader won an overwhelming victory, with 40 MPs bravely supporting his undoubted mastery of the party, and a paltry 170 or so lickspittle capitalist pigdogs opposing him for their own bourgeois reasons.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that
Tory backbenches seemed silent. And unimpressed...
She is truly hopeless and is unfit for high office.
"May says, whatever U-turn comes next in Labour’s policy, Corbyn will sent out his henchmen to reveal it to the world - the “inconstant gardner”. Someone will explain the joke to Corbyn later, she says.
Tories cheer loudly."
A giant compared to the pond scum that represents the Tory Party factions today
All he can do is jump on yet another outrage bus - he hasn't got a positive contribution to make.
Sunil!!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46209535
Her crap deal can't get through parliament get over it.
That said, there's absolutely nothing in her behaviour to date which suggests that she would commit to such a course of action. If she survives tonight's motion of confidence then she might just spend the whole period between now and March 29th offering nothing but her deal or no deal, and playing a game of chicken with the House of Commons over the choice.
Inconsistent Labour MP: Barry Gardiner.
Oh my sides, etc, etc.
47.999999999999... = 48
Dominic Raab – a man who, despite having a seat in the South East, was unaware of the importance of the Dover – Calais route to Britain’s trade
Andrea Leadsom – famous or, perhaps, infamous for having allowed a wholly exaggerated account of her work and pre-Parliamentary experience to be put about. In normal circles, such exaggerations are known as lies and would get you disciplined and/or sacked not promoted to the Cabinet, where she has shone at nothing.
Sajid Javid – an ex-investment banker from Deutsche Bank (a red flag in itself) with all the charisma of a Dalek. His main claim to be leader is, apparently, where he was brought up. Perhaps we could make his Mum and Dad leader instead.
Amber Rudd – has a tiny majority, a questionable City career behind her and was not well-served by her officials at the Home Office. But at least had the decency and balls to show up at debates. Has been rude about Boris Johnson. So there is that in favour of her.
Penny Mordaunt – lied during the referendum about Turkey’s accession. Can swim. And make speeches with double entendres in them. If the House of Commons ever needs a front of house manager for its gym, she’d be a shoo-in.
Jacob Rees-Mogg – Jesus wept.
Gavin Williamson – Embarrassed himself and the country by shouting “shut up” at Russia during the Skripal affair. Could we not give him some raffia baskets to play with instead?
Michael Gove – has a brain. But not as big a brain as he thinks he has. Utterly untrustworthy. Is apparently doing good work at Defra. He should stay there.
Boris Johnson – a serial liar. His only achievement as Foreign Secretary was to ensure that a British citizen locked up abroad in a country not known for its good treatment of women prisoners had her sentence lengthened.
David Davis – lazy, self-important and achieved nothing as Brexit Secretary. Has spent the rest of the time concocting a fairy story that if he had only been given power he could have achieved wondrous things. Everything he said about Brexit before he became Brexit secretary has turned out to be a lie or wrong.
Jeremy Hunt – gets confused about where his wife is from. Claimed that the EU was like the Soviet Union, his combination of offensiveness and historical inaccuracy doubtless an attempt to make people remember who he is.
Esther McVey – Managed to lose her seat in 2015. No other known achievements.
Oh – a late entrant.
My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?
That ones for MD.
He's obviously not a Le Carre fan - the wrong side tends to win in his novels!
A modest man with much to be modest about.
That want the deal gone, they (with a heavy heart) therefore need May gone. If the Tories remove one alleyway for removing May, the DUP would presumably more likely to support the other?
We voted to take back control, not to have an unelected Prime Minister.
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/crime/peterborough-mp-fiona-onasanya-lied-persistently-and-deliberately-court-told-1-8737332
Though of course in the privacy of the ballot booth nothing is guaranteed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
Of course he might be be truthful - he would no doubt prefer he be made leader uncontested
Legend.
Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.