We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Labour doesn't have a position.
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.
Their position is whatever you would like it to be. Where's the problem?
Okay... my position... is the opposite of a permanent customs union... and the furthest thing possible from the single market access we currently have... if they fail in the above because they can't get a GE I definitely don't want them to pivot to supporting a 2nd referendum and remain.
Can you see where that might conflict with what the Labour front bench have said?
It may not be a clear position between May's Deal, remain* and no deal but that is why I clarified a position Galloway might not like.
*Although it does actually include this but as a second stage.
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
I felt we were at the early echo. chamber stage so had a long nap. I think Grabcoque puts his finger on it by asking how the DUP will react to May's survival. That's the key question if she does survive. The other very valid point are the historical precedents fort the rebellion to be bigger than we all think. In the absence of any hard data perhaps the senario we should all war game is her surviving but by a narrower margin than the betting odds currently suggest.
I think a quick vote turnaround helps the plotters if anything.
Apparently not because they haven't got their ducks lined up
I think the ducks wouldn't last a weekend either to be honest. Either you have the numbers to topple the leader, or you don't, all this talk of timeframes is just excuses.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Labour doesn't have a position.
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.
Repeating something incomprehensible over and over again does not make it a 'position'. It's just as meaningless as half the rubbish that comes out of May's mouth.
Your bias is obscene. I really hope you don't actually believe what you are writing and are simply doing it out of some blind duty.
Yes are permanent, customs and union even English words?!
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
I felt we were at the early echo. chamber stage so had a long nap. I think Grabcoque puts his finger on it by asking how the DUP will react to May's survival. That's the key question if she does survive. The other very valid point are the historical precedents fort the rebellion to be bigger than we all think. In the absence of any hard data perhaps the senario we should all war game is her surviving but by a narrower margin than the betting odds currently suggest.
Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
Guardian website puts it at 150, with names. Which does not seem to me to be very encouraging for May, less than half her MPs and three hours to go before the vote....
Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
Guardian website puts it at 150, with names. Which does not seem to me to be very encouraging for May, less than half her MPs and three hours to go before the vote....
This is going to be quite close isn't it. No will be disappointed if they aren't 120+.
Yes are permanent, customs and union even English words?!
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
Permanent customs union with a 'single market relationship' but with the ability to do our own trade deals?
Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
Guardian website puts it at 150, with names. Which does not seem to me to be very encouraging for May, less than half her MPs and three hours to go before the vote....
This is going to be quite close isn't it. No will be disappointed if they aren't 120+.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Labour doesn't have a position.
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.
Repeating something incomprehensible over and over again does not make it a 'position'. It's just as meaningless as half the rubbish that comes out of May's mouth.
Your bias is obscene. I really hope you don't actually believe what you are writing and are simply doing it out of some blind duty.
Labour’s position: “this is a shockingly bad deal and must be renegotiated (by us). The backstop is unacceptable because it traps us in a customs union which we can’t escape except by mutual consent of EU and U.K. we would do much better, scrap the backstop and negotiate a permanent customs union which will be in place unless ended by mutual agreement”
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Sounds pretty similar to Labour's position.
Or Labours non position if you are Gallowgate because none of those words you said mean anything and are possibly not even English...
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
I’m not convinced that the EU will give enduring SM without freedom of movement - if I understand the backstop correctly, the ability to make the backstop NI-only (kind of) at the EU’s discretion is to avoid that situation.
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
The Tories are certainly useless and are behaving like headless chickens. Not sure I want to see the rest of the country suffer a Corbyn Gov as a result though.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Kudos for detailed prediction. Takes real courage that.
But correct me if I'm wrong (which has been known).
Doesn't such a pivot to an andrex brexit, even of the deluxe 'so velvety that it's downright decadent' variety, still require us to ratify the existing and supposedly treasonous withdrawal agreement?
I felt we were at the early echo. chamber stage so had a long nap. I think Grabcoque puts his finger on it by asking how the DUP will react to May's survival. That's the key question if she does survive. The other very valid point are the historical precedents fort the rebellion to be bigger than we all think. In the absence of any hard data perhaps the senario we should all war game is her surviving but by a narrower margin than the betting odds currently suggest.
If she wins, I think the main losers are anyone planning a Brexit Plan B of any kind. It makes it much easier for May to force people to take a clear position on Deal/No Deal/No Brexit.
One point. If May wins does it reduce the chances of DUP backing a VoNC? Because at the moment the assumption is that they can do so without an election (because it will cause TM resignation and new Tory leader). But do it now and there will have to be an election (and with TM as Tory leader). Which DUP don’t want.
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
Well if @AlastairMeeks' thread on Britain turning into Argentina turns out to be correct, it can't be long now before we get our first military dictatorship followed by a British Evita.
Yes are permanent, customs and union even English words?!
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
Permanent customs union with a 'single market relationship' but with the ability to do our own trade deals?
Translated to English, the above means: 🦄
Wow wow, you just said incomprehensible words, why are you pretending there is some kind of position by making up non English words?!
Okay, I assume now we have got over the barrier of you pretending words don't exist or haven't been said. Progress!
We won't have the ability to do our own trade deals, what we might have is some fudged ability to review deals before we approve them, which we will.
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
my mother overheard some people chatting in a coffee shop. They were split 2/3 in favour of May, and united against Boris. There was a suggestion Javid might succeed her.
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
Well if @AlastairMeeks' thread on Britain turning into Argentina turns out to be correct, it can't be long now before we get our first military dictatorship followed by a British Evita.
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
Problems with a referendum:
*If it includes her Deal the DUP will bring the Government down *If it doesn't then it's straight Leave versus Remain again - a huge risk given the very real possibility of a second Leave vote *An enormous U-turn which would make May look like an obvious liar to the public (and a particular problem when most of your core vote now consists of Leavers) *Relies on substantial backing from Labour, risks splitting her own party and, again, bringing down the Government
It might be amusing to see Corbyn’s reaction assuming she wins (by any margin). He can’t exactly argue that she has effectively lost the confidence of her party and should go...
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.
The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!
What advantages does Norway+ have over remaining in the EU?
Can we sign trade deals with other countries? Control our borders?
No, and yes.
Norway are in Schengen though.
It all seems completely pointless.
We are at the point now where all that really matters is whether an option is better than an unplanned no deal and can command majority support in the House. With any luck the ERG will be a busted flush and nobody has to appease them any further
So if as seems likely May wins, the DUP suddenly have fewer options available.
If Corbyn was smart about it he could effectively force the DUP to VONC the government - he could threaten to whip his party to vote in favour of the deal while tabling a vote f no confidence in the government straight after. the DUP would have little choice but to VONC, and Corbyn gets his early election. If the DUP didn’t agree to VONC they would be stuck with an existentially bad deal for them.
Edit : the idea would be that the DUP avoid the deal passing and agree to withdraw support for government.
Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.
Plausible. Honestly I don't know.
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.
Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.
More than that.
We can bin all precedents. We live in a new era. Therefore I think that result would be seen, in the circs, as a positive triumph. A 2 to 1 victory? Corbyn LOST his by 3 to 1, remember.
She'd be totally vindicated, and the ERG humbled and enfeebled.
May clinging on when 100+ of her MPs think she is inept would require an intervention.
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.
The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!
Cocking up would be getting 47 letters. They've done what they needed and the extra week's wait will have helped the cause given May's deal has fallen back in the polling. I do however think she will survive by 40-60 votes.
Correct. And if the government won't deliver No Deal, and parliament won't vote for either a deal or for revocation, the only option is a (binding) second referendum between the deal and Remain.
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.
The Telegraph's tally of MPs publically supporting May is up to 168 with just over 2 hours before voting starts. At the current rate, it will creep up to just over 60% by 6pm. That is in fact a perilously tight margin, once you allow for the likelihood that some will act differently when casting a secret ballot.
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever). 2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her. - No deal - managed or otherwise - No brexit
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal. Neither will most others in the house of commons. If the Tories want no deal they will get it, I wonder if some Conservatives will get cold feet about doing that to the country though...
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now
The choice isn't May or ERG. There are a few candidates in the middle ground.
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now
Certainly not everyone and maybe not a majority. No one with a brain should want a Corbyn Gov though which would result from sticking with May.
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.
Apparently Elphicke has had the whip restored also, and he's no May fan.
Comments
Can you see where that might conflict with what the Labour front bench have said?
It may not be a clear position between May's Deal, remain* and no deal but that is why I clarified a position Galloway might not like.
*Although it does actually include this but as a second stage.
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1072875053488984064
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
Translated to English, the above means: 🦄
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9OvRyKHB_iXAozPvDLLhCAY_jEpMScKDIn-cXAHAHY/edit#gid=0
(better sources than earlier)
49 unknown.
Does that cover it?
Or Labours non position if you are Gallowgate because none of those words you said mean anything and are possibly not even English...
FWIW Google's Spreadsheet has May ahead by 197 to 67. Looking at the undecideds, I think I'd add 9 to May and 16 against.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit
Most liars will be anti-May, but not all of them.
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
But correct me if I'm wrong (which has been known).
Doesn't such a pivot to an andrex brexit, even of the deluxe 'so velvety that it's downright decadent' variety, still require us to ratify the existing and supposedly treasonous withdrawal agreement?
And nice to see you, today of all days.
Well if @AlastairMeeks' thread on Britain turning into Argentina turns out to be correct, it can't be long now before we get our first military dictatorship followed by a British Evita.
Okay, I assume now we have got over the barrier of you pretending words don't exist or haven't been said. Progress!
We won't have the ability to do our own trade deals, what we might have is some fudged ability to review deals before we approve them, which we will.
my mother overheard some people chatting in a coffee shop. They were split 2/3 in favour of May, and united against Boris. There was a suggestion Javid might succeed her.
I have not even taken my coat off yet....
Are they lobbying their MPs?
Will the MPs take any notice, given it is a secret ballot.
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.
*If it includes her Deal the DUP will bring the Government down
*If it doesn't then it's straight Leave versus Remain again - a huge risk given the very real possibility of a second Leave vote
*An enormous U-turn which would make May look like an obvious liar to the public (and a particular problem when most of your core vote now consists of Leavers)
*Relies on substantial backing from Labour, risks splitting her own party and, again, bringing down the Government
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.
The UK’s options are:
1) Deal.
2) No Deal.
3) Revoke.
Everything else is noise.
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!
If Corbyn was smart about it he could effectively force the DUP to VONC the government - he could threaten to whip his party to vote in favour of the deal while tabling a vote f no confidence in the government straight after. the DUP would have little choice but to VONC, and Corbyn gets his early election. If the DUP didn’t agree to VONC they would be stuck with an existentially bad deal for them.
Edit : the idea would be that the DUP avoid the deal passing and agree to withdraw support for government.
Hearing that I may be wrong about Charlie Elphicke - that's a shocking call if so with a trial ongoing (and the jury delibrating!)
And what a day for the return of Jack W! I hope the Lib Dem canvassers have been keeping you satisfied and occupied Sir...
There are always room for 11th hour amendments with the EU.
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now
Plus they don't have May's baggage.