When Andrea Jenkins turned over Ed Balls in 2015, I could hardly have been happier. Having listened to her on TWAO today, I do hope the voters of Morley and Outwood turf her out at the first available opportunity. Someone posted on here this a.m that she was a " a piece of work" How right they are!. Come back Ed Balls, all is forgiven
Ed Balls has improved immeasurably whilst out of the Commons. Pretty high risk of him reverting to type.
Perhaps. Steve Jobs famously was a much better leader after his enforced sojourn away from Apple.
Hmm. How does TMay keep the DUP on board? Perhaps she could pass some legislation, to the effect that, should the backstop be imposed by the EU, and the UK fail in its attempts to have it lifted, then the UK will unilaterally abrogate the WA (or whatever we have agreed at that moment), and walk back to No Deal and WTO.
No way on this planet that gets through the house. Tory remainers and moderates (Everyone to the left of Soames) + Oppo will sink it.
The ERG have fucked up every opportunity to advance their cause.
Their serial arrogance and incompetence is also indicative of the ideology they support of course.
I don't know. We are on track for no deal Brexit. The deal is dead. Attempts to resuscitate the deal are currently in stasis because of the leadership vote of no confidence. Time continues to drift away.
Clever move by TMay to suggest she will resign before the election.
Not sure how it helps her if MP's think there could be a VONC and a general election in the New Year?
Depends how many of them think this Parliament can run beyond 2020 and how many think it could all collapse at any moment?
I see no reason why the government shouldn't last until 2022 (but who knows). Whatever they say, the DUP won't risk Corbyn who: 1. wants a united Ireland, and 2. has no more power to get rid of the backstop than TMay, and is much less inclined to try
A permanent CU removes the need for the backstop doesn't it? That's Labour's policy.
That's worse for the DUP. It means Norn Ireland will FOREVER be locked into a differing regime from Great Britain, with a regulatory border down the Irish Sea, and slowly diverging - towards a United Ireland.
Eh? Why, under that plan all of GB, NI and ROI would be in the Customs Union...
When Andrea Jenkins turned over Ed Balls in 2015, I could hardly have been happier. Having listened to her on TWAO today, I do hope the voters of Morley and Outwood turf her out at the first available opportunity. Someone posted on here this a.m that she was a " a piece of work" How right they are!. Come back Ed Balls, all is forgiven
Ed Balls has improved immeasurably whilst out of the Commons. Pretty high risk of him reverting to type.
Perhaps. Steve Jobs famously was a much better leader after his enforced sojourn away from Apple.
I think preferring Ed Balls to Andrea Jenkins shows what (a piece of work)" Jenkins really is.
Without a date carved in stone, a vague promise to go is useless. Ask Gordon Brown about Blair's retirement. There will always be some new domestic or international crisis which means the Prime Minister must remain just a few more weeks.
Hmm. How does TMay keep the DUP on board? Perhaps she could pass some legislation, to the effect that, should the backstop be imposed by the EU, and the UK fail in its attempts to have it lifted, then the UK will unilaterally abrogate the WA (or whatever we have agreed at that moment), and walk back to No Deal and WTO.
No way on this planet that gets through the house. Tory remainers and moderates (Everyone to the left of Soames) + Oppo will sink it.
The ERG have fucked up every opportunity to advance their cause.
Their serial arrogance and incompetence is also indicative of the ideology they support of course.
I don't know. We are on track for no deal Brexit. The deal is dead. Attempts to resuscitate the deal are currently in stasis because of the leadership vote of no confidence. Time continues to drift away.
Hmm. How does TMay keep the DUP on board? Perhaps she could pass some legislation, to the effect that, should the backstop be imposed by the EU, and the UK fail in its attempts to have it lifted, then the UK will unilaterally abrogate the WA (or whatever we have agreed at that moment), and walk back to No Deal and WTO.
I'm clearly not Erskine May, is this even possible?
As long as Theresa May can't get the Deal through Parliament the issue is moot. There's no compelling reason for Arlene Foster NOT to keep propping her up.
More likely the meeting was just like those that May had the other day with Merkel and the other European leaders. Useless pleading to others to shift their positions to accommodate her, which results in no movement whatsoever.
The Tories can keep the DUP on side for as long as they fail to pass the Backstop. The momnt they get the Backstop through, they lose the DUP.
Brexit physics 101: Theresa May's deal and her majority can't occupy the same space at the same time.
Hmm. How does TMay keep the DUP on board? Perhaps she could pass some legislation, to the effect that, should the backstop be imposed by the EU, and the UK fail in its attempts to have it lifted, then the UK will unilaterally abrogate the WA (or whatever we have agreed at that moment), and walk back to No Deal and WTO.
I'm clearly not Erskine May, is this even possible?
No. Our MPs need to accept that this is a political question. There is no elegant legal magic that can solve the problem.
After the European Council, May should announce that she will bring the Deal to the House of Commons on 21st January. Another month of building panic will help her cause.
Without a date carved in stone, a vague promise to go is useless. Ask Gordon Brown about Blair's retirement. There will always be some new domestic or international crisis which means the Prime Minister must remain just a few more weeks.
Yes, but this time there is only one crisis and that crisis is Brexit. It should be fairly evident when it's over, if it is in fact an actual crisis.
Corbyn would walk a confidence vote in the Labour party now.
Doubt it. He's useless and it's plain to see.
The Labour MPs want power and want to remove the government. Being plainly useless to centrists isn't as important as winning votes and seats.
It is when the centre is where those votes and seats come from. There is no more left to squeeze. Labour is letting down their existing coalition with Corbyn's Brexit stance.
Without a date carved in stone, a vague promise to go is useless. Ask Gordon Brown about Blair's retirement. There will always be some new domestic or international crisis which means the Prime Minister must remain just a few more weeks.
Problem is, she can't give a date. However difficult her position is now, the moment she says "I am going on date X" she becomes like an American President at the fag end of their second term. The leadership contest breaks out into the open, and any limited authority she still has is reduced to almost nothing.
That's even assuming these rumours were true - they might very well not be, she might be wanting to keep going on to the next election for all we know - and that anybody would trust her word if she gave such an assurance anyway, which most people would not.
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Corbyn would walk a confidence vote in the Labour party now.
Doubt it. He's useless and it's plain to see.
The Labour MPs want power and want to remove the government. Being plainly useless to centrists isn't as important as winning votes and seats.
It is when the centre is where those votes and seats come from. There is no more left to squeeze. Labour is letting down their existing coalition with Corbyn's Brexit stance.
No it is the left where these seats and votes come from. Corbyn brought Labour back. The Greens were taking Labours younger voters. UKIP were creeping up on our working class voters. Labour had already been shown what more of the same was going to lead to with the wipeout in Scotland by the SNP.
Labour were in a terrible position, they need 2 elections to have a chance of power. They needed SNP to somehow disappear so their seats come back into play to have any chance of a majority. They needed the Greens to stop taking their young voters as well UKIP to stop taking the working class ones.
Corbyn pulled off a minor miracle.
The people who think Labour would magically hold onto all these voters if they went back to the failed centrist route and just add the centrists who do want the centrists are being very silly. There is no logical reason to make the assumption. It is based on what you want to be true.
Given that what usually seems to happen is whatever's most awkward, I'm predicting May to win by 2 votes.
She will stay on if she wins by 1 vote. By now we should all know that is her style, her (very mild) autism makes her oddly resilient to animosity and contempt: she doesn't see it, and/or doesn't care. Anyone else would have resigned after that appalling General Election result.
She's decided that Brexiting is her job, and she's damn well going to do it. Then she will retire.
I'm sure if her victory is narrow she will stride out and claim she will carry on.
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Write out 48 times: "The Withdrawal Agreement is not the Future Trade Agreement."
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Write out 48 times: "The Withdrawal Agreement is not the Future Trade Agreement."
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
Obviously, it's in nobody's interests to say you're knifing your leader, just in case they win. So you publicly express support, and then do the dirty under cover of a secret ballot.
Presumably a not-insignificant chunk of those publicly professing support will not actually do so. Whereas I suspect almost all of those not expressing support will be almost uniformly against her.
So yes. It makes sense to assume the rebellion will be bigger than the BBC's May groupies are briefing.
Corbyn would walk a confidence vote in the Labour party now.
Doubt it. He's useless and it's plain to see.
The Labour MPs want power and want to remove the government. Being plainly useless to centrists isn't as important as winning votes and seats.
It is when the centre is where those votes and seats come from. There is no more left to squeeze. Labour is letting down their existing coalition with Corbyn's Brexit stance.
No it is the left where these seats and votes come from. Corbyn brought Labour back. The Greens were taking Labours younger voters. UKIP were creeping up on our working class voters. Labour had already been shown what more of the same was going to lead to with the wipeout in Scotland by the SNP.
Labour were in a terrible position, they need 2 elections to have a chance of power. They needed SNP to somehow disappear so their seats come back into play to have any chance of a majority. They needed the Greens to stop taking their young voters as well UKIP to stop taking the working class ones.
Corbyn pulled off a minor miracle.
The people who think Labour would magically hold onto all these voters if they went back to the failed centrist route and just add the centrists who do want the centrists are being very silly. There is no logical reason to make the assumption. It is based on what you want to be true.
Don't make me get the unicorn emojis out because I will!
Given that what usually seems to happen is whatever's most awkward, I'm predicting May to win by 2 votes.
She will stay on if she wins by 1 vote. By now we should all know that is her style, her (very mild) autism makes her oddly resilient to animosity and contempt: she doesn't see it, and/or doesn't care. Anyone else would have resigned after that appalling General Election result.
She's decided that Brexiting is her job, and she's damn well going to do it. Then she will retire.
I'm sure if her victory is narrow she will stride out and claim she will carry on.
Reality will hit by tomorrow though.
So a majority of say 10 and she gets handed the whisky and pearl-handled by the Cabinet?
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
Corbyn would walk a confidence vote in the Labour party now.
Doubt it. He's useless and it's plain to see.
The Labour MPs want power and want to remove the government. Being plainly useless to centrists isn't as important as winning votes and seats.
It is when the centre is where those votes and seats come from. There is no more left to squeeze. Labour is letting down their existing coalition with Corbyn's Brexit stance.
No it is the left where these seats and votes come from. Corbyn brought Labour back. The Greens were taking Labours younger voters. UKIP were creeping up on our working class voters. Labour had already been shown what more of the same was going to lead to with the wipeout in Scotland by the SNP.
Labour were in a terrible position, they need 2 elections to have a chance of power. They needed SNP to somehow disappear so their seats come back into play to have any chance of a majority. They needed the Greens to stop taking their young voters as well UKIP to stop taking the working class ones.
Corbyn pulled off a minor miracle.
The people who think Labour would magically hold onto all these voters if they went back to the failed centrist route and just add the centrists who do want the centrists are being very silly. There is no logical reason to make the assumption. It is based on what you want to be true.
Don't make me get the unicorn emojis out because I will!
Are they masses of voters Labour would win by switching to centrism?
At least someone has an answer to how all these committed centrists actually exist despite their lack of voting...
It seems like I have got this wrong and May is expected to walk it - but what I cannot understand really is whether Ken Clarke's position from PMQ's applies to all Conservative remain-leaning MPs. I guess if I was a remain inclined MP whose constituents voted leave I might vote to boot May out tonight in the privacy of the ballot and the hope that it would throw all the pieces of the Brexit jigsaw up in the air looking for a cancellation; Do contributors on here expect remainers to pretty solidly back May tonight?
Suggests that even though the WA and continued DUP support may appear incompatible they may well be trying to sort something out.
I would expect DUP to keep up maximum pressure in public - but it may be that if WA does pass then something just might be in place to keep DUP onside.
Obviously, it's in nobody's interests to say you're knifing your leader, just in case they win. So you publicly express support, and then do the dirty under cover of a secret ballot.
Presumably a not-insignificant chunk of those publicly professing support will not actually do so. Whereas I suspect almost all of those not expressing support will be almost uniformly against her.
So yes. It makes sense to assume the rebellion will be bigger than the BBC's May groupies are briefing.
Seems the ERG are in full panic mode. May has really annoyed a lot of people this week with pulling the meaningful vote after sending her ministers out promising it would go ahead, after being found in contempt of parliament last week. However looking at the ERG 'owning' the vote today would probably have led me to vote Confidence tonight, holding my nose. Far better to isolate them.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
So, when the hurlyburly's done, revoke it will be.
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
There will be a public inquiries, truth and reconciliation commissions, and witch hunts aplenty, once Brexit is cancelled.
One hopes that the guilty (Olly Robbins, Nick Timothy, Gavin and Robbie) have been keeping detailed notes on how it's all May's fault.
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
There isn't one with May's "deal" or Norway+.
Hence why the leavers want to get rid of May and the remainers want her to er...remain.
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
Maybe a good idea to refresh what 'beg the question' actually means?
Given that what usually seems to happen is whatever's most awkward, I'm predicting May to win by 2 votes.
She will stay on if she wins by 1 vote. By now we should all know that is her style, her (very mild) autism makes her oddly resilient to animosity and contempt: she doesn't see it, and/or doesn't care. Anyone else would have resigned after that appalling General Election result.
She's decided that Brexiting is her job, and she's damn well going to do it. Then she will retire.
I'm sure if her victory is narrow she will stride out and claim she will carry on.
Reality will hit by tomorrow though.
So a majority of say 10 and she gets handed the whisky and pearl-handled by the Cabinet?
The difference between 1990 and now is, of course, that there's no second round. She wins the first round by one vote and she's secure. How would her cabinet get rid of her - resign en masse? That worked so well when the Labour grandees did it to Corbyn, didn't it?
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
Suggests that even though the WA and continued DUP support may appear incompatible they may well be trying to sort something out.
I would expect DUP to keep up maximum pressure in public - but it may be that if WA does pass then something just might be in place to keep DUP onside.
It seems like I have got this wrong and May is expected to walk it - but what I cannot understand really is whether Ken Clarke's position from PMQ's applies to all Conservative remain-leaning MPs. I guess if I was a remain inclined MP whose constituents voted leave I might vote to boot May out tonight in the privacy of the ballot and the hope that it would throw all the pieces of the Brexit jigsaw up in the air looking for a cancellation; Do contributors on here expect remainers to pretty solidly back May tonight?
Yes - One word 'Boris'
Remember to preface with Disgraced Sack of Shit and Amoral Sociopathic Snake.
This whole tragic farce reminds me of World War One. by which I mean: when you look back at, say, Ed Miliband and the Sandwich, or Ed Miliband And His Ridiculous Policy Obelisk, it all seems so sweet, and innocent, and distant. Positively pre-war.
It's certainly the completion of British decline which began in 1914.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Suggests that even though the WA and continued DUP support may appear incompatible they may well be trying to sort something out.
I would expect DUP to keep up maximum pressure in public - but it may be that if WA does pass then something just might be in place to keep DUP onside.
Been out for a few hours. Has the PM resigned yet?
Don't worry, you'll soon be able to enjoy her sterling leadership for another twelve months at least.
Hmmm. IF she survives (and the Conservative Party is probably the most devious electorate to poll outside of the Vatican) then:
- she gets absolutely no changes out of Brussels on the WA. Nada. Squat. Zip.
- the deal FINALLY gets voted on - and booted out by Westminster
- nobody can agree on a question to ask the voters on a second referendum
- Art 50 gets extended by only 3 months, to work out what to do - sign the deal or pull Art 50?
- dithering, her administration looks moribund and she loses a VONC in Westminster
- there is an election - which she fronts. And she loses 100 seats.
- she resigns latest by early May. Less than five months of sterling leadership.
You can tell that we are dealing with public bodies here and not the private sector. Imagine a FTSE 250 company where the CEO lost the primary client, then screwed up the resulting corporate restructuring. They would never have got near the restructuring. Let alone being given a bomb-proof contract of emplotment for another 12 months.....
What advantages does Norway+ have over remaining in the EU?
Can we sign trade deals with other countries? Control our borders?
No, and yes.
Norway are in Schengen though.
It all seems completely pointless.
They still have customs border controls though. And Norway has been a member of the FOM Nordic Passport Union since the 1940s, and which is now effectively subsumed into Schengen.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
The choices are deal, no deal or revoke. Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
I think so. Where to be clear 'deal' means the withdrawal agreement. The FTA could end up being Canada, Norway, Chequers, some other variation, but that is irrelevant to the choice faced now. I understand the machinations of those opposing the deal whose priority is a hard brexit, a GE, or another referendum, but the overall impact is unfortunate. By trashing it and then ultimately agreeing to ratify (as they will) we end up with a reasonable and realistic compromise looking like a national humiliation.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Labour doesn't have a position.
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.
It seems like I have got this wrong and May is expected to walk it - but what I cannot understand really is whether Ken Clarke's position from PMQ's applies to all Conservative remain-leaning MPs. I guess if I was a remain inclined MP whose constituents voted leave I might vote to boot May out tonight in the privacy of the ballot and the hope that it would throw all the pieces of the Brexit jigsaw up in the air looking for a cancellation; Do contributors on here expect remainers to pretty solidly back May tonight?
Yes - One word 'Boris'
Remember to preface with Disgraced Sack of Shit and Amoral Sociopathic Snake.
Come on now - you know I would be more polite but I do accept it is difficult
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
"The EU Commission has reiterated its backing for Theresa May ahead of a no-confidence vote by the prime minister’s party this evening. Speaking in Brussels Margaritis Schinas, the chief spokesperson of the Commission presidency, said the Commission believed Ms May had done a good job of “managing a very difficult process”."
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Labour doesn't have a position.
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.
Their position is whatever you would like it to be. Where's the problem?
What advantages does Norway+ have over remaining in the EU?
Can we sign trade deals with other countries? Control our borders?
No, and yes.
Norway are in Schengen though.
It all seems completely pointless.
They still have customs border controls though. And Norway has been a member of the FOM Nordic Passport Union since the 1940s, and which is now effectively subsumed into Schengen.
Sure but would they have got their deal with the EU without it?
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
Maybe their charge would have worked if they could have repeated it over and over?
Been out for a few hours. Has the PM resigned yet?
Don't worry, you'll soon be able to enjoy her sterling leadership for another twelve months at least.
Hmmm. IF she survives (and the Conservative Party is probably the most devious electorate to poll outside of the Vatican) then:
- she gets absolutely no changes out of Brussels on the WA. Nada. Squat. Zip.
- the deal FINALLY gets voted on - and booted out by Westminster
- nobody can agree on a question to ask the voters on a second referendum
- Art 50 gets extended by only 3 months, to work out what to do - sign the deal or pull Art 50?
- dithering, her administration looks moribund and she loses a VONC in Westminster
- there is an election - which she fronts. And she loses 100 seats.
- she resigns latest by early May. Less than five months of sterling leadership.
You can tell that we are dealing with public bodies here and not the private sector. Imagine a FTSE 250 company where the CEO lost the primary client, then screwed up the resulting corporate restructuring. They would never have got near the restructuring. Let alone being given a bomb-proof contract of emplotment for another 12 months.....
I do believe that you have seen at least a glimpse of the real world situation that we face...congratulations.
"The EU Commission has reiterated its backing for Theresa May ahead of a no-confidence vote by the prime minister’s party this evening. Speaking in Brussels Margaritis Schinas, the chief spokesperson of the Commission presidency, said the Commission believed Ms May had done a good job of “managing a very difficult process”."
At lot depends on how the DUP react to May surviving a VONC. The DUP could countenance a Norway+ model I suspect, since it keeps NI and rUK in the customs union, there's no need for a backstop, and NI and rUK in the single market which obviates any regulatory border in the Irish sea.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
Why should they mind? The price would be financial payments, from us, a la Norvege. We'd be an inferior associate member. Trade would be uninterrupted, and a disastrous (for everyone) No Deal averted. Brexit is finally solved.
I reckon they'd be more than happy with it.
It does beg the question "What was the point of Brexit then?", though.
There will be a public inquiries, truth and reconciliation commissions, and witch hunts aplenty, once Brexit is cancelled.
One hopes that the guilty (Olly Robbins, Nick Timothy, Gavin and Robbie) have been keeping detailed notes on how it's all May's fault.
I'm looking forward to the show trials and seeing the Brexiteers condemned as enemies of the people.
But who will we get to play Vyshinsky? Andrew Adonis perhaps?
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
Maybe their charge would have worked if they could have repeated it over and over?
Maybe, maybe not - but their losses would certainly have increased.
Given accuracy of cabinet minister briefings recently, not sure that means much. However, let’s look at this realistically, they struggled to get 48 letters in the first place, it took weeks. If there is really a ground swell of get her out, you would be like that scene out of Harry Potter will letter flying in left, right and centre.
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.
This one would suit them nicely.
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...
Labour doesn't have a position.
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.
Repeating something incomprehensible over and over again does not make it a 'position'. It's just as meaningless as half the rubbish that comes out of May's mouth.
Your bias is obscene. I really hope you don't actually believe what you are writing and are simply doing it out of some blind duty.
Been out for a few hours. Has the PM resigned yet?
Don't worry, you'll soon be able to enjoy her sterling leadership for another twelve months at least.
Hmmm. IF she survives (and the Conservative Party is probably the most devious electorate to poll outside of the Vatican) then:
- she gets absolutely no changes out of Brussels on the WA. Nada. Squat. Zip.
- the deal FINALLY gets voted on - and booted out by Westminster
- nobody can agree on a question to ask the voters on a second referendum
- Art 50 gets extended by only 3 months, to work out what to do - sign the deal or pull Art 50?
- dithering, her administration looks moribund and she loses a VONC in Westminster
- there is an election - which she fronts. And she loses 100 seats.
- she resigns latest by early May. Less than five months of sterling leadership.
You can tell that we are dealing with public bodies here and not the private sector. Imagine a FTSE 250 company where the CEO lost the primary client, then screwed up the resulting corporate restructuring. They would never have got near the restructuring. Let alone being given a bomb-proof contract of emplotment for another 12 months.....
I do believe that you have seen at least a glimpse of the real world situation that we face...congratulations.
The Tory party can change that time-line though.
Tonight.
Alternatively, they can just take a massive overdose of Spice...
Comments
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1072842323942346752
But, I disagree with her.
Without a date carved in stone, a vague promise to go is useless. Ask Gordon Brown about Blair's retirement. There will always be some new domestic or international crisis which means the Prime Minister must remain just a few more weeks.
Of course, probably biased sample.
More likely the meeting was just like those that May had the other day with Merkel and the other European leaders. Useless pleading to others to shift their positions to accommodate her, which results in no movement whatsoever.
The Tories can keep the DUP on side for as long as they fail to pass the Backstop. The momnt they get the Backstop through, they lose the DUP.
Brexit physics 101: Theresa May's deal and her majority can't occupy the same space at the same time.
After the European Council, May should announce that she will bring the Deal to the House of Commons on 21st January. Another month of building panic will help her cause.
Given that what usually seems to happen is whatever's most awkward, I'm predicting May to win by 2 votes.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/home-office-disabled-children-leave-country
That's even assuming these rumours were true - they might very well not be, she might be wanting to keep going on to the next election for all we know - and that anybody would trust her word if she gave such an assurance anyway, which most people would not.
The people I find harder to imagine countenancing a pivot to Norway is the EU.
In MP numbers that would be 164-151 if there are no abstentions (does May get a vote?)
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
*innocent face*
Labour were in a terrible position, they need 2 elections to have a chance of power. They needed SNP to somehow disappear so their seats come back into play to have any chance of a majority. They needed the Greens to stop taking their young voters as well UKIP to stop taking the working class ones.
Corbyn pulled off a minor miracle.
The people who think Labour would magically hold onto all these voters if they went back to the failed centrist route and just add the centrists who do want the centrists are being very silly. There is no logical reason to make the assumption. It is based on what you want to be true.
Reality will hit by tomorrow though.
"The Withdrawal Agreement is not the Future Trade Agreement."
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
Can we sign trade deals with other countries? Control our borders?
Presumably a not-insignificant chunk of those publicly professing support will not actually do so. Whereas I suspect almost all of those not expressing support will be almost uniformly against her.
So yes. It makes sense to assume the rebellion will be bigger than the BBC's May groupies are briefing.
https://twitter.com/ar10642/status/1072863669099216897
At least someone has an answer to how all these committed centrists actually exist despite their lack of voting...
Suggests that even though the WA and continued DUP support may appear incompatible they may well be trying to sort something out.
I would expect DUP to keep up maximum pressure in public - but it may be that if WA does pass then something just might be in place to keep DUP onside.
With May, she intends to run the clock down so the choice is her deal or none.
Without her, the mostly pro-EU PCP stands a chance of getting in a candidate who will go along with a second referendum.
One hopes that the guilty (Olly Robbins, Nick Timothy, Gavin and Robbie) have been keeping detailed notes on how it's all May's fault.
Hence why the leavers want to get rid of May and the remainers want her to er...remain.
It all seems completely pointless.
He also had 27 convictions spanning across France, Germany and Switzerland, and has spent considerable time in prison as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUCgC_TukKg
- she gets absolutely no changes out of Brussels on the WA. Nada. Squat. Zip.
- the deal FINALLY gets voted on - and booted out by Westminster
- nobody can agree on a question to ask the voters on a second referendum
- Art 50 gets extended by only 3 months, to work out what to do - sign the deal or pull Art 50?
- dithering, her administration looks moribund and she loses a VONC in Westminster
- there is an election - which she fronts. And she loses 100 seats.
- she resigns latest by early May. Less than five months of sterling leadership.
You can tell that we are dealing with public bodies here and not the private sector. Imagine a FTSE 250 company where the CEO lost the primary client, then screwed up the resulting corporate restructuring. They would never have got near the restructuring. Let alone being given a bomb-proof contract of emplotment for another 12 months.....
Mike's just confirmed that he's starting a six month round the world tour this evening.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
Damning wth faint praise.....
No one is getting kicked out. It’s more like leaving your wife becoming “world girlfriend day” which it is. Back on the market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUCgC_TukKg
(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
"The EU Commission has reiterated its backing for Theresa May ahead of a no-confidence vote by the prime minister’s party this evening. Speaking in Brussels Margaritis Schinas, the chief spokesperson of the Commission presidency, said the Commission believed Ms May had done a good job of “managing a very difficult process”."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-no-confidence-vote-eu-commission-juncker-brexit-irish-border-backstop-conservatives-a8679356.html
But who will we get to play Vyshinsky? Andrew Adonis perhaps?
It's just as meaningless as half the rubbish that comes out of May's mouth.
Your bias is obscene. I really hope you don't actually believe what you are writing and are simply doing it out of some blind duty.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072872921972928518
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072872900091293696
Tonight.
Alternatively, they can just take a massive overdose of Spice...