Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

2456789

Comments

  • Barnesian said:

    She is taking Corbyn apart

    She isn't really. She's simply attacking Labour rather than answering key and important questions. She is doing it competently enough that it might swing a few more Tory MP votes her way.
    My impression too. At a time of national crisis, Corbyn's questions were valid ones to which the whole country wants answers and yet she couldn't bring herself to address them. She just chose to ignore him and by implication us. I don't though think that she even did that competently. She didn't come across like a PM at all and doesn't deserve another chance.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Boris would command the confidence of the house if he gets through to the final two I think. I simply don't think there are 7 MPs prepared to vote Corbyn in.

    There are 20 - 50 conservative mps who would resign the whip and paralyse his leadership but not vote against in a vnoc
  • Definitely going to renew my membership of the TRG.

    https://twitter.com/ToryReformGroup/status/1072812320278134784
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    If May wins this, I think it could make it a lot easier to peel the DUP off to support a parliamentary VONC.

    That want the deal gone, they (with a heavy heart) therefore need May gone. If the Tories remove one alleyway for removing May, the DUP would presumably more likely to support the other?

    In some ways a good thing, either May wins a majority on a manifesto commitment for her Deal or Corbyn likely leads a minority government propped up by the SNP and we end up with BINO ie permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too. Either way we avoid No Deal
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.

    But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.

    Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that

    I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?
    Don't worry, Corbyn didn't understand it either.

    He's obviously not a Le Carre fan - the wrong side tends to win in his novels!
    Did anyone understand it?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Cyclefree said:

    Helpfully the Daily Mail has a list of possible Tory leader contenders. Let’s examine their records.
    *snipped for length*

    Nicely done.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Blair did not have 170 Labour MPs no confidence his leadership unlike Corbyn
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    HYUFD said:

    May has just reached the 158 MPs she needs to stay Tory leader and win the VONC according to BBC news research of public declarations of support with 33 Tory MPs declaring they will vote against her.

    Though of course in the privacy of the ballot booth nothing is guaranteed

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

    The BBC report that 158 have "publicly" said they will vote for her. If they've said it publicly, can we have a list?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Ken Clarke.

    Legend.

    What did he ask / say?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
  • Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    Hmm.... that's a keeper.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    If May wins this, I think it could make it a lot easier to peel the DUP off to support a parliamentary VONC.

    That want the deal gone, they (with a heavy heart) therefore need May gone. If the Tories remove one alleyway for removing May, the DUP would presumably more likely to support the other?

    The DUP have previously said they will only no confidence the Government if the backstop passes. Therefore, as long as the Deal can't get through they can leave Theresa May where she is.

    Her continued presence might even suit them. If she just sits like a lemon in Downing Street between now and March, running the clock down whilst Parliament can't agree what to do next, then the chance of a Hard Brexit steadily increases with each passing day. The DUP are a Leave-supporting party. I think they'd be content with that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Oort said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has just reached the 158 MPs she needs to stay Tory leader and win the VONC according to BBC news research of public declarations of support with 33 Tory MPs declaring they will vote against her.

    Though of course in the privacy of the ballot booth nothing is guaranteed

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

    The BBC report that 158 have "publicly" said they will vote for her. If they've said it publicly, can we have a list?
    For a secret ballot, this seems to be the phoniest of wars.
  • TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Donny43 said:

    Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.
    Stupid or not (it's not), it's very, very resonant.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sky News: Total number of Conservative MPs that have so far publicly pledged to vote for May tonight: 141
  • Barry Gardiner is Corbyns spokesman and embarrassingly poor. The Constant Gardener was an excellent film. I do wonder why posters on here point out that Corbyn is useless. Of course he is useless. That is why he was never given any job by Kinnock, Smith, Blair ,Brown or Miliband.Just accept the fact that he will always be useless and take it for granted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    I like Cox as a presenter of things but sarky comments dont help if they are a reflection of how campaigners and decision makers intend to go about things. He and they need to be smarter if we ever get to a vote . But for blowing off steam I can hardly judge.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Donny43 said:

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.

    You mean you don't like it.

    They had a vote. They are no longer happy with the result. They want to vote again and hope for a different outcome.

    These are facts.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    If May wins this, I think it could make it a lot easier to peel the DUP off to support a parliamentary VONC.

    That want the deal gone, they (with a heavy heart) therefore need May gone. If the Tories remove one alleyway for removing May, the DUP would presumably more likely to support the other?

    The DUP have previously said they will only no confidence the Government if the backstop passes.
    Yes, but that was based, I think, on the assumption May would be knifed or resign. If the Tories decide, for whatever reason, that they're prepared to allow May to kick the can of her defunct deal down the road for another three months, I imagine we could see a recalibration of the DUP's desiderata.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited December 2018
    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    Appreciate you disagree with Cox but he's anything but a moron.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her

    That is a damning indictment of the entire cabinet and other would-be leadership contenders.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Xenon said:


    This "swivel-eyed loons" nonsense ... has to stop.

    Ok. From now on I shall refer to them as self-absorbed, raving, xenophobic nutters. That way all sense of metaphor is removed and you get my unvarnished opinion of a bunch of people who seem to have to no conception of the damage they are causing nor do they seem to care much about it either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    Ken Clarke hits the nail on the head and gives big boost to TM

    I think it's be amusing to see him back in the cabinet. I doubt he wants though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494
    The ERG were stupid for not getting 48 letters, now they're stupid for getting 48 letters. People who are virrulently against Brexit disliking a pro-Brexit group non-shock.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    A defeat caused in part by some of the same Eurosceptic bottom-feeders who are now trying to bring Mrs May down.
    Which he could have nipped in the bud by offering a referendum. But never mind that how about his record as chancellor when he imposed 15% interest rates so we could stay inside the ERM. That made the early nineties recession far worse for many than the 2008 crash. Bankruptcies and repossessions abounded, Were you there? I was and I can tell you in 1995 when I was standing as a young local candidate the visceral hatred of the Tories was something to behold. We lost 1000's of seats in places where we had never lost them before. It took 12 years to recover. Quite some record eh?
  • 141 of 315 MPs declared. 174 undeclared.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    Donny43 said:

    Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.
    Stupid arguments can still win the day.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dyingswan said:

    Barry Gardiner is Corbyns spokesman and embarrassingly poor. The Constant Gardener was an excellent film. I do wonder why posters on here point out that Corbyn is useless. Of course he is useless. That is why he was never given any job by Kinnock, Smith, Blair ,Brown or Miliband.Just accept the fact that he will always be useless and take it for granted.

    I didn't watch the pointless debate on Channel 4 the other night, but apparently Gardiner was sent on it to represent the Labour front bench position and performed awfully (I invite anybody who did see said performance to confirm or deny these reports.)

    The performance - indeed, the very presence - of Corbyn and his allies is, of course, the reason why we still have a Conservative minority Government. A Labour top team that (a) consisted of figures who were vaguely competent and (b) wasn't full of Irish Republican sympathisers could have won the backing of the DUP without too much difficulty.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The ERG were stupid for not getting 48 letters, now they're stupid for getting 48 letters.

    Yes.

    Like comedy, with politics, timing is everything.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    I like Cox as a presenter of things but sarky comments dont help if they are a reflection of how campaigners and decision makers intend to go about things. He and they need to be smarter if we ever get to a vote . But for blowing off steam I can hardly judge.
    I dislike Cox suspect he's a "wrong 'un" and probably a socialist to boot.



  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    SPIN up to 110 rebels, but Betfair down to 1.14 (88%).
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Scott_P said:

    Donny43 said:

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.

    You mean you don't like it.

    They had a vote. They are no longer happy with the result. They want to vote again and hope for a different outcome.

    These are facts.
    No, I mean it is stupid - because the attempted analogy is invalid. I can copy and paste my reply from the last thread if you need to read it again before you grasp the point.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    edited December 2018
    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG were stupid for not getting 48 letters, now they're stupid for getting 48 letters.

    Yes.

    Like comedy, with politics, timing is everything.
    :D:+1:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    Stupid arguments can still win the day.

    c.f. Brexit...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    I have a goldfish. Can he (or she, I can't tell) have Liam Fox's job, please?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Helpfully the Daily Mail has a list of possible Tory leader contenders. Let’s examine their records.

    Dominic Raab – a man who, despite having a seat in the South East, was unaware of the importance of the Dover – Calais route to Britain’s trade

    Andrea Leadsom – famous or, perhaps, infamous for having allowed a wholly exaggerated account of her work and pre-Parliamentary experience to be put about. In normal circles, such exaggerations are known as lies and would get you disciplined and/or sacked not promoted to the Cabinet, where she has shone at nothing.

    Sajid Javid – an ex-investment banker from Deutsche Bank (a red flag in itself) with all the charisma of a Dalek. His main claim to be leader is, apparently, where he was brought up. Perhaps we could make his Mum and Dad leader instead.

    Amber Rudd – has a tiny majority, a questionable City career behind her and was not well-served by her officials at the Home Office. But at least had the decency and balls to show up at debates. Has been rude about Boris Johnson. So there is that in favour of her.

    Penny Mordaunt – lied during the referendum about Turkey’s accession. Can swim. And make speeches with double entendres in them. If the House of Commons ever needs a front of house manager for its gym, she’d be a shoo-in.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg – Jesus wept.

    Gavin Williamson – Embarrassed himself and the country by shouting “shut up” at Russia during the Skripal affair. Could we not give him some raffia baskets to play with instead?

    Michael Gove – has a brain. But not as big a brain as he thinks he has. Utterly untrustworthy. Is apparently doing good work at Defra. He should stay there.

    Boris Johnson – a serial liar. His only achievement as Foreign Secretary was to ensure that a British citizen locked up abroad in a country not known for its good treatment of women prisoners had her sentence lengthened.

    David Davis – lazy, self-important and achieved nothing as Brexit Secretary. Has spent the rest of the time concocting a fairy story that if he had only been given power he could have achieved wondrous things. Everything he said about Brexit before he became Brexit secretary has turned out to be a lie or wrong.

    Jeremy Hunt – gets confused about where his wife is from. Claimed that the EU was like the Soviet Union, his combination of offensiveness and historical inaccuracy doubtless an attempt to make people remember who he is.

    Esther McVey – Managed to lose her seat in 2015. No other known achievements.

    snip

    All of which sound somewhat better than a Corbyn led rainbow coalition.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG were stupid for not getting 48 letters, now they're stupid for getting 48 letters.

    Yes.

    Like comedy, with politics, timing is everything.
    May is stupid to let a confidence vote happen. Utter failure to bring the party with her. No doubt it's the rebels fault she is inept.

  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.
    Stupid arguments can still win the day.
    Brexit did. Didn't it?
  • TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her

    I expect her to win this confidence vote. But more importantly as I noted early it changes NOTHING with regards to the impossibility of getting her deal through Parliament. Notable from PMQs was her increasingly discomfort on trying to deflect demands for a commons vote on the deal - her position is absurd and she knows it.

    What the confidence motion will do is cement in place the defeat to come for her deal. Once that happens she will not be able to lead regardless of the rules of the Tory Party and her tenure will end. No government defeated on its key policy unable to negotiate a way forward either with the other side or its own MPs is able to remain functional as the government. Regardless of their views on the opposition.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    IF THE GLOVE DON'T FIT
    YOU MUST BREXIT
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited December 2018
    Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    I like Cox as a presenter of things but sarky comments dont help if they are a reflection of how campaigners and decision makers intend to go about things. He and they need to be smarter if we ever get to a vote . But for blowing off steam I can hardly judge.
    I dislike Cox suspect he's a "wrong 'un" and probably a socialist to boot.



    What's a "wrong 'un"? Someone with a different view to yours?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    kyf_100 said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
    I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a "stick two fingers up at the establishment" option.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    Yes - I think we probably can.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    Yes - I think we probably can.
    Can I add 2 horses, 3 cats, 6 rabbits and 18 fish ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    kyf_100 said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
    I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a "stick two fingers up at the establishment" option.
    I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a second referendum.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Emily Thornberry calling out the Conservatives sordid propaganda campaign funded by public money. It is hard to find words to describe how low the Conservatives are. They do not care for democracy.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.

    Yes. If I was among even the softest of remainers from the Tories, I would be one of the first to cast my no-confidence vote, and conversely, if I was among even the softest of Brexiters, I would be taking to the radio waves to support her.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    May win continuing to tighten:

    May win 1.12
    May lose 8.6
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,286
    Scott_P said:
    If they can't organise a rebellion, how could they possibly organise a government ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Emily Thornberry calling out the Conservatives sordid propaganda campaign funded by public money. It is hard to find words to describe how low the Conservatives are. They do not care for democracy.

    Don't care about democracy ? They are having a vote this evening !
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Anorak said:

    Donny43 said:

    Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?

    No, this is still a stupid argument as explained repeatedly on the last thread.
    Stupid or not (it's not), it's very, very resonant.
    Anything can resonate in a echo chamber...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    MikeL said:

    May win continuing to tighten:

    May win 1.12
    May lose 8.6

    For the non-betters amongst us does tighten mean become more or less likely?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    If May win looks certain, floating voters likely to vote for May to make margin look better.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    Yes - I think we probably can.
    Can I add 2 horses, 3 cats, 6 rabbits and 18 fish ?
    Hooray! We have a thinking government at last!!
  • TM performance at PMQs has convinced me she has to lead us to Brexit. While I am not happy she may have 12 months in office at this moment no one else is near her

    I expect her to win this confidence vote. But more importantly as I noted early it changes NOTHING with regards to the impossibility of getting her deal through Parliament. Notable from PMQs was her increasingly discomfort on trying to deflect demands for a commons vote on the deal - her position is absurd and she knows it.

    What the confidence motion will do is cement in place the defeat to come for her deal. Once that happens she will not be able to lead regardless of the rules of the Tory Party and her tenure will end. No government defeated on its key policy unable to negotiate a way forward either with the other side or its own MPs is able to remain functional as the government. Regardless of their views on the opposition.
    I am sure you are not surprised but I do not agree. The deal will come to the HOC and the mps will no doubt put forward amendments and the HOC will show the way forward but TM will only leave office if labour succeed in a vnoc
  • kle4 said:

    Ken Clarke hits the nail on the head and gives big boost to TM

    I think it's be amusing to see him back in the cabinet. I doubt he wants though.
    Deputy PM - once TMay wins a 12-month lock-in..... how sweet that would be!!!!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494

    kyf_100 said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
    I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a "stick two fingers up at the establishment" option.
    No-one will be stupid enough to have a second referendum William. They won't. Too hard. Not even a rigged one. It was done the minute the result came in, no matter how many grand plans it buggered up and how many powers and potentates were and are against it. There is no road back. You'd have been a lot happier over these past months had you accepted it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    MikeL said:

    If May win looks certain, floating voters likely to vote for May to make margin look better.

    Alternatively they vote against her, and then can say they did so when it all goes tits up.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    Stupid arguments can still win the day.

    c.f. Brexit...
    Ah, good, you accept that it has won the day.
  • Jonathan said:

    Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.

    Indeed. Her triumph will last until tomorrow when the EU summit tells her no further negotiation, no further compromise. At which point having hardened the opposition to her and her deal it WILL be demolished in the commons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    Perhaps May delayed the vote and arranged the VONC to flush out the plot TSE was talking about, and the ERG are just a sideshow.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    I have a goldfish. Can he (or she, I can't tell) have Liam Fox's job, please?
    Oh all right then.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Donny43 said:

    Ah, good, you accept that it has won the day.

    Never denied the win.

    It was stupid, is stupid and will remain stupid, but it won the day.

    And the country was lost as a result.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    Stupid arguments can still win the day.

    c.f. Brexit...
    Ah, good, you accept that it has won the day.
    Phyrrus did too.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited December 2018
    Norm said:

    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    A defeat caused in part by some of the same Eurosceptic bottom-feeders who are now trying to bring Mrs May down.
    Which he could have nipped in the bud by offering a referendum. But never mind that how about his record as chancellor when he imposed 15% interest rates so we could stay inside the ERM. That made the early nineties recession far worse for many than the 2008 crash. Bankruptcies and repossessions abounded, Were you there? I was and I can tell you in 1995 when I was standing as a young local candidate the visceral hatred of the Tories was something to behold. We lost 1000's of seats in places where we had never lost them before. It took 12 years to recover. Quite some record eh?
    Yes - I was there on ERM day and, as I recall, the 15% lasted a day or so and was caused by trying to hedge against currency speculators. That was the day that the Bank of England learned that Soros et al had more clout than they did.

    There was a visceral hatred of the Tories from the early 80s onward, especially after the Miner's Strike and Union legislation, but having a party divided against itself also added to the narrative that they were unelectable. After 1997 they really were unelectable and came out with stupid policies and leaders with zero appeal. Hague, IDS, Michael Howard... FFS!

    Major was not much good, but he looks good by comparison with the current shower.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Perhaps May delayed the vote and arranged the VONC to flush out the plot TSE was talking about, and the ERG are just a sideshow.
    That would suggest a level of cunning and political and parliamentary mastery she's never displayed before.

    Occam's razor suggests the chaos around the MV was just chaos.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    Emily Thornberry calling out the Conservatives sordid propaganda campaign funded by public money. It is hard to find words to describe how low the Conservatives are. They do not care for democracy.

    Don't care about democracy ? They are having a vote this evening !
    Sorry having my own conversation.

    Emily Thornberry was asking about the Conservative propaganda outfit called IntegrityInitivative which has been given public money to attack the Labour party.

    Edit: Not Brexit related...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712

    MikeL said:

    May win continuing to tighten:

    May win 1.12
    May lose 8.6

    For the non-betters amongst us does tighten mean become more or less likely?
    May win more likely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
  • Jonathan said:

    Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.

    Indeed. Her triumph will last until tomorrow when the EU summit tells her no further negotiation, no further compromise. At which point having hardened the opposition to her and her deal it WILL be demolished in the commons.
    You are talking from your viewpoint of course but her deal will be voted on and whatever follows she will direct as PM unless labour have a successful vnoc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    The ERG were stupid for not getting 48 letters, now they're stupid for getting 48 letters. People who are virrulently against Brexit disliking a pro-Brexit group non-shock.

    Win or lose they had to do it. Other mps should have long before now too. Respective strengths needs to be known.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494
    Scott_P said:
    Good grief she's aged terrribly. Barely recognisable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Scott_P said:
    And that indicator has never let us down, has it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    TGOHF said:

    Emily Thornberry calling out the Conservatives sordid propaganda campaign funded by public money. It is hard to find words to describe how low the Conservatives are. They do not care for democracy.

    Don't care about democracy ? They are having a vote this evening !
    Sorry having my own conversation.

    Emily Thornberry was asking about the Conservative propaganda outfit called IntegrityInitivative which has been given public money to attack the Labour party.

    Edit: Not Brexit related...
    Sounds very shady indeed if true.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Helpfully the Daily Mail has a list of possible Tory leader contenders. Let’s examine their records.

    Dominic Raab – a man who, despite having a seat in the South East, was unaware of the importance of the Dover – Calais route to Britain’s trade

    Andrea Leadsom – famous or, perhaps, infamous for having allowed a wholly exaggerated account of her work and pre-Parliamentary experience to be put about. In normal circles, such exaggerations are known as lies and would get you disciplined and/or sacked not promoted to the Cabinet, where she has shone at nothing.

    Sajid Javid – an ex-investment banker from Deutsche Bank (a red flag in itself) with all the charisma of a Dalek. His main claim to be leader is, apparently, where he was brought up. Perhaps we could make his Mum and Dad leader instead.

    Amber Rudd – has a tiny majority, a questionable City career behind her and was not well-served by her officials at the Home Office. But at least had the decency and balls to show up at debates. Has been rude about Boris Johnson. So there is that in favour of her.

    Penny Mordaunt – lied during the referendum about Turkey’s accession. Can swim. And make speeches with double entendres in them. If the House of Commons ever needs a front of house manager for its gym, she’d be a shoo-in.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg – Jesus wept.

    Gavin Williamson – Embarrassed himself and the country by shouting “shut up” at Russia during the Skripal affair. Could we not give him some raffia baskets to play with instead?

    Michael Gove – has a brain. But not as big a brain as he thinks he has. Utterly untrustworthy. Is apparently doing good work at Defra. He should stay there.

    Boris Johnson – a serial liar. His only achievement as Foreign Secretary was to ensure that a British citizen locked up abroad in a country not known for its good treatment of women prisoners had her sentence lengthened.

    David Davis – lazy, self-important and achieved nothing as Brexit Secretary. Has spent the rest of the time concocting a fairy story that if he had only been given power he could have achieved wondrous things. Everything he said about Brexit before he became Brexit secretary has turned out to be a lie or wrong.

    Jeremy Hunt – gets confused about where his wife is from. Claimed that the EU was like the Soviet Union, his combination of offensiveness and historical inaccuracy doubtless an attempt to make people remember who he is.

    Esther McVey – Managed to lose her seat in 2015. No other known achievements.

    snip

    All of which sound somewhat better than a Corbyn led rainbow coalition.
    I can't be certain of that any more. They're as bad as each other. That's how damaged the Tory brand now is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Norm said:

    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    A defeat caused in part by some of the same Eurosceptic bottom-feeders who are now trying to bring Mrs May down.
    Which he could have nipped in the bud by offering a referendum. But never mind that how about his record as chancellor when he imposed 15% interest rates so we could stay inside the ERM. That made the early nineties recession far worse for many than the 2008 crash. Bankruptcies and repossessions abounded, Were you there? I was and I can tell you in 1995 when I was standing as a young local candidate the visceral hatred of the Tories was something to behold. We lost 1000's of seats in places where we had never lost them before. It took 12 years to recover. Quite some record eh?
    Yes - I was there on ERM day and, as I recall, the 15% lasted a day or so and was caused by trying to hedge against currency speculators. That was the day that the Bank of England learned that Soros et al had more clout than they did.

    There was a visceral hatred of the Tories from the early 80s onward, especially after the Miner's Strike and Union legislation, but having a party divided against itself also added to the narrative that they were unelectable. After 1997 they really were unelectable and came out with stupid policies and leaders with zero appeal. Hague, IDS, Michael Howard... FFS!

    Major was not much good, but he looks good by comparison with the current shower.
    Major and May are the only Tory leaders since Thatcher to get over 40% at a general election, Major and Cameron the only Tory leaders since Thatcher to win an overall majority at a general election yes
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    Yes - I think we probably can.
    Can I add 2 horses, 3 cats, 6 rabbits and 18 fish ?
    Hooray! We have a thinking government at last!!
    There is something floating in the kitchen sink. It could do DexEU...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    kyf_100 said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?

    Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.
    It's the kind of attitude that makes me certain that leave would win a second referendum. People don't like being told what to think at the best of times, let alone a second time, and they certainly don't like being told it by the intolerably smug. A second referendum wouldn't be about Brexit, it would be about a chance to stick two fingers up at the establishment. Again.
    I think you will be disappointed by the lack of a "stick two fingers up at the establishment" option.
    No-one will be stupid enough to have a second referendum William. They won't. Too hard. Not even a rigged one. It was done the minute the result came in, no matter how many grand plans it buggered up and how many powers and potentates were and are against it. There is no road back. You'd have been a lot happier over these past months had you accepted it.
    Have you now accepted that your disgusting claim on here that Jo Cox's murder was a false flag operation was a horrific lie? Once you accept that, you can perhaps start lecturing others.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief she's aged terrribly. Barely recognisable.
    Probably the only time Wollaston has been to the right of anyone...
  • Mr. Fenman, poor Pyrrhus. A very capable general with a winning record against the Romans, yet his name's a byword for a victory not worth having.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Norm said:

    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?

    By 1. The old realities no longer exist.
    John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.
    John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.
    Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in history
    A defeat caused in part by some of the same Eurosceptic bottom-feeders who are now trying to bring Mrs May down.
    Which he could have nipped in the bud by offering a referendum. But never mind that how about his record as chancellor when he imposed 15% interest rates so we could stay inside the ERM. That made the early nineties recession far worse for many than the 2008 crash. Bankruptcies and repossessions abounded, Were you there? I was and I can tell you in 1995 when I was standing as a young local candidate the visceral hatred of the Tories was something to behold. We lost 1000's of seats in places where we had never lost them before. It took 12 years to recover. Quite some record eh?
    Major wasn't the chancellor who raised rates to 15%; that was Norman Lamont.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Scott_P said:
    She won't.

    I am quite clear that nothing has changed.
    My deal is the only deal.
    I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.
  • Phil Hammond saying vote will flush out the extremists in the party trying to advance an agenda not in the interest of the Country
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

    My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG
    The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

    I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.
    I have a goldfish. Can he (or she, I can't tell) have Liam Fox's job, please?
    No, it's over-qualified. Foxs job should go to an amoeba.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494

    Jonathan said:

    Things are more dangerous because of this vote. If May wins tonight, she still needs to win the Commons vote on her deal. However, her party will be more polarised and her internal opponents wounded and ever more alienated. Her only move will be to tack towards Labour in some way. However, she seems incapable of doing that. N. Meanwhile all the ERG have to do is sit on their hands and wait it out. If nothing happens, they win.

    Indeed. Her triumph will last until tomorrow when the EU summit tells her no further negotiation, no further compromise. At which point having hardened the opposition to her and her deal it WILL be demolished in the commons.
    If she wanted to secure some concessions, it would have actually been better to have had the vote hanging over her than (as seems likely) in the bag and with her leadership secure. She could have raised the spectre of Boris unless they gave her some read meat.
This discussion has been closed.