politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and
Comments
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If it hasn’t been mentioned there is a SPIN market up; Votes Against, currently sell 100 buy 108.0
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It depends who the leader is but if it's Boris or David Davis I don't think they'll be able to resist the drama of it all!TGOHF said:
Still not seeing a GE next year.GIN1138 said:
A new leader, a re-set of A50 and a general election are just some of the highlights we can look forward to in the New Year.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?
Merry Christmas.
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I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
She’s got a vote ?rottenborough said:0 -
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
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At some point Leavers will want to/have to play with the CJEU judgement. Revoking one day, the reinvoking the next resets the clock by two years. It may be the only way to save Brexit.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?0 -
a market for the brave that one I thinktrawl said:If it hasn’t been mentioned there is a SPIN market up; Votes Against, currently sell 100 buy 108.
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I was thinking about Michael Green....AndyJS said:
Damian Green says he'll vote in favour of Mrs May.FrancisUrquhart said:
And is Mr Green also undecided?AndyJS said:Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.
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These people always write as if their single vote was the most important one in the country. Numerically they are in fact tiny.Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
Her deal is toast. And I feel any plan B ends up in the same place, a lost VONC.tottenhamWC said:
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
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Michael delivers at least seven extra votes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I was thinking about Michael Green....AndyJS said:
Damian Green says he'll vote in favour of Mrs May.FrancisUrquhart said:
And is Mr Green also undecided?AndyJS said:Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.
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That is my position. ERG are premature. I do not want TM locked in for another 12 monthsDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
This.tottenhamWC said:
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
If she wins, she stays.
She thinks her country needs her.
She's sure of it.
Mrs. Messiah Complex.0 -
tottenhamWC said:
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
Yes, there is a great deal of wishful thinking on the part of the PB Hard Right Wing. They are sounding like they expect to lose, and are spinning ways to 'win the defeat'.0 -
The men in grey suits will be knocking if 100 against.tottenhamWC said:
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
The Con Party doesn't run on unicorn droppings.0 -
What's wrong with getting rid of her now?DavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.
She's not doing anything of value.0 -
She's got a veto, pretty much.Nigelb said:
She’s got a vote ?rottenborough said:0 -
That might be the way forward. Reset it every 2 years, pleases everyone !YellowSubmarine said:
At some point Leavers will want to/have to play with the CJEU judgement. Revoking one day, the reinvoking the next resets the clock by two years. It may be the only way to save Brexit.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?0 -
I also don't place much reliance on my crystal ball, unlike many others on here, who seem to be blessed with remarkable foresight (or think there are?). But possibly like you, I'm interpreting the ball's cloudiness as indicating no GE next year, influenced perhaps by wondering why the hell would the Tories call one.TGOHF said:
Still not seeing a GE next year.GIN1138 said:
A new leader, a re-set of A50 and a general election are just some of the highlights we can look forward to in the New Year.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?
Merry Christmas.0 -
Surely you’re not suggesting that members of the public weird enough to contact a radio phone in are not completely honest and reliable? Where will this end?Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
Same time as PMQs?DanSmith said:0 -
At last someone who has managed to use their brain in the Tory party.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?0 -
So, the big question is whether no leader is better than a bad leader?0
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Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
"Nothing has changed..."TGOHF said:
The men in grey suits will be knocking if 100 against.tottenhamWC said:
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
The Con Party doesn't run on unicorn droppings.
She'll carry on if she wins by a single vote. It's going to take a vaudeville hook to get rid of her.0 -
I think the judgement allows the EU to treat the date of a second invocation as equal to the first in order to prevent such game playing.YellowSubmarine said:
At some point Leavers will want to/have to play with the CJEU judgement. Revoking one day, the reinvoking the next resets the clock by two years. It may be the only way to save Brexit.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?
We can unilaterally choose to stay in, but we cannot unilaterally reset the clock.0 -
El_Capitano said:
Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.
If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same time as PMQs?DanSmith said:0 -
It should have been left at least until her attempted renegotiations had been clearly seen to hit a brick wall. At the very least she should have been allowed to see that preening poseur Varadkar in the knowledge that any successor to her would not be so emollient.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is my position. ERG are premature. I do not want TM locked in for another 12 monthsDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
I’ve voted remain because I had concerns about the economic impact, but I have argued on here that the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement. TMay asked for a mandate, and she was given a minority government.tottenhamWC said:
Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....Nemtynakht said:
I’ll repost this from last nightrottenborough said:
Talk about hostage to fortune.....
I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.0 -
At the same time as PMQs?DanSmith said:0 -
I think the markets tell the story. She is so bad that the thought of her departure leads to the markets rallying.Chameleon said:So, the big question is whether no leader is better than a bad leader?
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No way that's going to happen.... is there?Pulpstar said:El_Capitano said:
Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.
If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same time as PMQs?DanSmith said:0 -
If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.rkrkrk said:
Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.Pulpstar said:183/81
That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.0 -
Phil Hammond should definitely resign at PMQs. Gives MPs cover to vote the right way and depose May.0
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That is actually not far from my own view, but I wouldn’t bother messaging a radio showEl_Capitano said:
Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
With respect that is nonsense. If TM wins TM is PM for the next 12 months and no one can dislodge herTGOHF said:
The men in grey suits will be knocking if 100 against.tottenhamWC said:
You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
The Con Party doesn't run on unicorn droppings.
It is so silly to have done this now. Only yesterday I announced that TM had made a mistake on pulling the vote and has lost my support. But that did not include a vnoc now and the prospect of her leading into an election0 -
https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1072764948047122432Pulpstar said:
If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.
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will he make it as a question?TheScreamingEagles said:
Same time as PMQs?DanSmith said:0 -
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?0 -
I am resigning from the Cabinet in order to vote against?TheScreamingEagles said:
Same time as PMQs?DanSmith said:
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If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.0 -
You want to see the folks doing the selecting...Beverley_C said:I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?0 -
0
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Why not?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
She'll get herself a new cabinet.
The men in suits are a fiction.0 -
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-second-scottish-tory-mp-says-he-will-vote-against-pm-s-deal-1-4841769
The mood in Scotland is enough is enough. Time to rest A50, gain some stability and prepare a better plan.0 -
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.0 -
I've always wondered if we could have a Reservoir Dogs ending to this. With Spreadsheet Phil as Mr Pink, waiting until the circular firing squad has finished everyone else off, then running away with the loot...Pulpstar said:Phil Hammond should definitely resign at PMQs. Gives MPs cover to vote the right way and depose May.
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I predict one person who has tweeted like this will reverse ferret. Maybe not Hammond but don't rule it out.Andrew said:
https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1072764948047122432Pulpstar said:
If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.0 -
I think there must be a reasonable chance that it might be the end of the Tory party on that basis - the level of public support for no deal now, let alone in March when people are panicking, is going to put them in an impossible position.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve voted remain because I had concerns about the economic impact, but I have argued on here that the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement. TMay asked for a mandate, and she was given a minority government.tottenhamWC said:
Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....Nemtynakht said:
I’ll repost this from last nightrottenborough said:
Talk about hostage to fortune.....
I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.0 -
If she wins by one she'll stay.David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.0 -
Yes, precisely why I'd vote against if I was a Tory MP today.Benpointer said:
If she wins by one she'll stay.David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.0 -
I think guardian's twitter counter (now 110 in favour) is probably the best measure of support, although of course some of that may turn out to be false. If she gets above 200 publicly supporting, I think she must be safe, since some waverers may back her in the end.El_Capitano said:
If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.rkrkrk said:
Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.Pulpstar said:183/81
That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.0 -
Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.0
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'twas ever thusBeverley_C said:I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?0 -
But if her plan is voted down, the HoC can take control. That almost certainly won't happen if a no dealer wins.hamiltonace said:Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.
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Anyone still listening to Radio 5 will be listening the the ding dong between SNP and Labour and wondering - are they going to be forming a government together any time soon?0
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This seems spot on. However I am leaving this well alone.AndyJS said:
I think she'll probably hold on but betting against is probably going to be value. There'll most likely be a rumour at some stage tonight that she's lost even if she hasn't, and the markets will overreact to it.Pulpstar said:
1.22 amazingly short.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
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Guardian asks
Who will be PM in the morning?
Surely this is Theresa May 100% ?!0 -
It is also voting for at least a chance of her leading you in GE 2019.hamiltonace said:Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.
If I was in a marginal I would be giving some serious thought to that prospect.0 -
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"0 -
Boris is the biggest issue for many conservative mps and will impact the vote in TM directionhamiltonace said:Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.
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About 85 Tory MPs have posted messages on Twitter in support of Theresa May. Not sure whether that counts as a lot or not a lot at this stage.El_Capitano said:
If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.rkrkrk said:
Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.Pulpstar said:183/81
That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.0 -
It wouldn't surprise me if Mrs May hasn't engineered this VONC (by encouraging a few of her supporters to put letters in). It's a risky strategy to some extent but it makes her bullet proof when she does her next U-Turn (after her deal is voted down) and announces an extension of A50 and a second referendum.
Without the VNOC out of the way she would have been vulnerable to a VONC as soon as she u-turned and might have lost it. As it is, she is mightily strengthened.0 -
The only thing I would say is that Leave voters have reportedly moved to don’t know. I would not bet against Leave in any 2nd referendumtottenhamWC said:
I think there must be a reasonable chance that it might be the end of the Tory party on that basis - the level of public support for no deal now, let alone in March when people are panicking, is going to put them in an impossible position.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve voted remain because I had concerns about the economic impact, but I have argued on here that the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement. TMay asked for a mandate, and she was given a minority government.tottenhamWC said:
Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....Nemtynakht said:
I’ll repost this from last nightrottenborough said:
Talk about hostage to fortune.....
I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.0 -
When fighting against the establishment or established position any substantial rebellion counts because they are fighting with hands tied eg May has the captive ministerial vote. (I know its a secret ballot but those with government positions will want to cling on and not risk losing out with a different leader. )TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.0 -
Waffle from you exposing your hypocrisy.David_Evershed said:
When fighting against the establishment or established position any substantial rebellion counts because they are fighting with hands tied eg May has the captive ministerial vote. (I know its a secret ballot but those with government positions will want to cling on and not risk losing out with a different leader. )TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.0 -
I listen to Radio 5 every morning, unless they are playing games there really does seem to be a significant level of support for May amongst the listeners, even if it is reluctant. And there certainly is very little belief that anyone else can produce a substantially better deal.Nemtynakht said:
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaningDavidL said:Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
She will be PM tomorrow no matter the result. If she loses she will stay in place until her successor is appointedhamiltonace said:Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.
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If May wins tonight, will it be the first time in history that both the sitting PM and the sitting Loto have faced voncs from their own parties?0
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Brady timing stuff from guardian blog:
5pm: Theresa May will address the 1922 committee of Tory MPs
6pm: The ballot will open.
8pm: The ballot will close
9pm: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, will first inform the prime minister of the result and then announce the result to MPs and the press, followed by the numbers on either side0 -
You win the Waffley Crap Post of the Decade Award.David_Evershed said:
When fighting against the establishment or established position any substantial rebellion counts because they are fighting with hands tied eg May has the captive ministerial vote. (I know its a secret ballot but those with government positions will want to cling on and not risk losing out with a different leader. )TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
Collect your prize by 31 December.0 -
That was explicitly ruled out during the campaign. "Easiest deal in history, we start from total alignment, etc."Nemtynakht said:the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement.
If she had said that at Lancaster house she would have been VONCed immediately0 -
As has been said, downthreadBenpointer said:
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
Yet to see anyone refute this.Donny43 said:
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:
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Even though I'm a Leaver I entirely agree with you. It makes her immune from the ERG. The 48 letters shd have been kept in reserve and used as the nuclear option if she started tilting towards A50 revocation or a second ref.Barnesian said:It wouldn't surprise me if Mrs May hasn't engineered this VONC (by encouraging a few of her supporters to put letters in). It's a risky strategy to some extent but it makes her bullet proof when she does her next U-Turn (after her deal is voted down) and announces an extension of A50 and a second referendum.
Without the VNOC out of the way she would have been vulnerable to a VONC as soon as she u-turned and might have lost it. As it is, she is mightily strengthened.0 -
Not sure I agree with your first sentencehamiltonace said:Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.
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The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.kyf_100 said:
As has been said, downthreadBenpointer said:
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
Yet to see anyone refute this.Donny43 said:
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:
So the real result was never enacted.0 -
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With an ultra-safe seat, Paterson could ignore constituents and spend 100% of his time plotting and appearing on TV. The delights of rotten boroughs ...ReggieCide said:
'twas ever thusBeverley_C said:I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?0 -
Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.TheScreamingEagles said:
The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.kyf_100 said:
As has been said, downthreadBenpointer said:
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
Yet to see anyone refute this.Donny43 said:
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:
So the real result was never enacted.
Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.0 -
"Left-leaning MPs have tabled a motion of no confidence in the French government in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's handling of the "gilets jaunes" ("yellow vests") crisis.
The move has triggered a debate in the French parliament — the National Assembly — to be held on Thursday."
https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/12/gilets-jaunes-left-leaning-mps-table-motion-of-no-confidence-in-french-government0 -
It's a christmas of no-confidence.0
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Because the best the Leavers could come up with was Andrea Leadsom.kyf_100 said:
Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.TheScreamingEagles said:
The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.kyf_100 said:
As has been said, downthreadBenpointer said:
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
Yet to see anyone refute this.Donny43 said:
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:
So the real result was never enacted.
Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.0 -
And many otherswilliamglenn said:0 -
George is 100% correct here. MPs should vote her out.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have a funny feeling Maureen from Margate won't be getting her question about the number 89 bus diversion due to the Christmas market raised by Jezza today.0
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Hah. I take your point there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because the best the Leavers could come up with was Andrea Leadsom.kyf_100 said:
Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.TheScreamingEagles said:
The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.kyf_100 said:
As has been said, downthreadBenpointer said:
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
Yet to see anyone refute this.Donny43 said:
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:
So the real result was never enacted.
Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
It's almost like there's a case to be made for MPs taking decisions in the best interests of the country without putting them to the wider electorate, lest they vote for something immensely silly
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However, I'm quite confident that christmas will be more rewarding this year, in that north european way of warding off the midwinter murk with drink and lights.0
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Expect full cheers for May.FrancisUrquhart said:I have a funny feeling Maureen from Margate won't be getting her question about the number 89 bus diversion due to the Christmas market raised by Jezza today.
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SPIN traitor market midpoint now 102. EM publicly declared rebel scum: 82 (edit: 81)0
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Does that mean she would vote in favour of a No Confidence motion in the government in the Commons?williamglenn said:0 -
Crikey George Osborne is channelling mePulpstar said:
George is 100% correct here. MPs should vote her out.TheScreamingEagles said:
It doesn’t help that the confidence vote has been triggered by the hard Brexiteers of the so-called European Research Group . Their obsession with the European issue above all others has been a force for division and destruction in the Conservative Party for three decades. Many Tory MPs will hate to give them any kind of victory. That is why Mrs May, in her statement outside Downing Street, appealed to her party with her claim to be “moderate, pragmatic and mainstream”. It is designed to frame tonight’s vote as the “sensibles” against the “nutters”.0 -
No -AndyJS said:
Does that mean she would vote in favour of a No Confidence motion in the government in the Commons?williamglenn said:0 -
Oh no, that's not going to wash:kyf_100 said:
Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.TheScreamingEagles said:
The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.kyf_100 said:
As has been said, downthreadBenpointer said:
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):TheScreamingEagles said:
Can we say the same about Brexit?David_Evershed said:If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
Yet to see anyone refute this.Donny43 said:
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:
So the real result was never enacted.
Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
Tory MPs overwhelmingly voted for a new leader in July 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's ok to have another vote.
The UK public narrowly voted to leave the EU in June 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's not ok to have another vote.
Hypocrisy of the highest order!0 -
Must not play this market.Andrew said:SPIN traitor market midpoint now 102. EM publicly declared rebel scum: 82.
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