politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and
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There won’t be pairing in a VONC in the house - this Guy is despicableSandyRentool said:
Will he allow pairing in tonight's vote?Scott_P said:0 -
Yep. If parliament cannot deliver any version of Leave they should revoke article 50 so that we stay in. Preferably accompanied by an apology for including an undeliverable option in the 2016 referendum. That is the correct course of action if we are to remain.Donny43 said:No, they don't. They want the decision of the first vote changed. They've just assumed that having another referendum is the best way to do it but would quite happily settle for parliament overturning the result themselves.
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Obviously sight unseenOldKingCole said:0 -
There is no provision for a stalking horse. There in a VONC, and then if lost a leadership election. Where would a stalking horse fit in?Theuniondivvie said:
I'm sure the line has been run already, but does the term 'stalking donkey' exist?Brom said:
Andrea Jenkyns would make a decent stalking horse for the ERG. I'm sure she would be happy to go on manoeuvres on behalf of Boris.OldKingCole said:0 -
No form of stalking animal is required under the current rules.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm sure the line has been run already, but does the term 'stalking donkey' exist?Brom said:
Andrea Jenkyns would make a decent stalking horse for the ERG. I'm sure she would be happy to go on manoeuvres on behalf of Boris.OldKingCole said:0 -
As the BBC commented:Scott_P said:
"Chief whip now backing May
He was one of three cabinet ministers not to have tweeted their support.."
Does that imply he was counting before committing ?0 -
What a mess. Europe still is utter kryptonite to the Tories.0
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I’m sure Andrea Jenkyns is distraught that you don’t like her!Roger said:
Obviously sight unseenOldKingCole said:0 -
Plenty of talking donkeys, though.Nemtynakht said:
There is no provision for a stalking horse. There in a VONC, and then if lost a leadership election. Where would a stalking horse fit in?Theuniondivvie said:
I'm sure the line has been run already, but does the term 'stalking donkey' exist?Brom said:
Andrea Jenkyns would make a decent stalking horse for the ERG. I'm sure she would be happy to go on manoeuvres on behalf of Boris.OldKingCole said:0 -
We'll know she is in real trouble if he ERG start coming out in support xD0
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It's also one thing publicly saying you're doing something, and then following through in private, as the ERG knows, and May's bunch may be about to find out.0
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Maybe so.kle4 said:
You do. Some of your cohorts want only to reverse brexit. They see a vote as the way to do that, but an actual second referendum supporter wants the vote to settle things whatever it's outcome. ,Even if they prefer one over the other they want the people to decide, not just see it as a way to get what they wantFoxy said:
Er, yes we do!Donny43 said:
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.Nigel_Foremain said:
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacyTheScreamingEagles said:Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.
The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.
I think the referendum needs to be overturned by a further referendum, or of course confirmed.
Double or quits is something people understand.
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This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.Scott_P said:0 -
She's going to win isn't she?Scott_P said:
And then just run the clock down with her crappy deal that's never going to get through parliament.
So no deal with zero planning or remain without a referendum it is.0 -
Macrons En Marche has a safe majority though doesn't it?Scott_P said:0 -
PM has Kevin Foster's support: https://twitter.com/nmicklewright/status/10727790737961000960
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I think the Tories losing a VONC in the new year is looking ever more likely.Xenon said:
She's going to win isn't she?Scott_P said:
And then just run the clock down with her crappy deal that's never going to get through parliament.
So no deal with zero planning or remain without a referendum it is.0 -
It looks like only 29 of the 48 Tory MPs submitting letters made their decision public:
Baker, Blunt, Bone, Bradley, Bridgen, Cash, Caulfield, Clarke, Davies, Dorries, Duddridge, Francois, Fysh, Goldsmith, Green, Holloway, Hollobone, Jenkyns, Jones, Lewer, Morris, Murray, Paterson, Rees-Mogg, Robertson, Rowley, Smith, Vickers, Whittingdale.0 -
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Theresa May has all the right enemies.
Andrea Jenkyns
Owen Paterson
Bill Cash
JRM
Andrew Bridgen
Mark Francois
James Duddridge
I hope May squishes them.0 -
With the DUP voting against?DanSmith said:
I think they'd prefer to wait until the last minute to nuke the deal if there's a small chance it will get through parliament.0 -
Fair play to Graham Brady, he's played an absolubtely honest game with a straight bat.0
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Rather than a list of the MPs tweeting their support, I'd like to see a list of the MPs keeping quiet.0
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This.tlg86 said:
Not news, is it? If you didn't signal your support you'd have to resign - and why do that when she might be gone this evening?Pulpstar said:All the big cabinet beasts out in support.
Plus the support of the Cabinet is what, half the number of those who have sent in letters.
This vote is not about the support of Cabinet members. It's whether the Hon. Member for Peasedown on the Wolds wants her leading the Party into a potentially imminent election.0 -
I always thought that stalking was more of a feline than an equine characteristic.
Can't we have a Stalking Pussy?0 -
The DUP have more patience than the ERG.Xenon said:
With the DUP voting against?DanSmith said:
I think they'd prefer to wait until the last minute to nuke the deal if there's a small chance it will get through parliament.0 -
Jacob Marley livesScott_P said:0 -
Total lack of self awareness.Scott_P said:0 -
He's Liddington's bag-man - was never going to do anything else.Pulpstar said:PM has Kevin Foster's support: https://twitter.com/nmicklewright/status/1072779073796100096
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It'll be embarrassing for Tory MPs if say 250 of them issue public statements of support for Mrs May and then she only gets 150 votes at the contest tonight. They're probably hoping that no-one keeps a running list of endorsements, which is all the more reason for someone to do so.0
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As its a secret ballot I don't think the public pronouncements of support are worth the paper they're not written on...rottenborough said:Judging by the outpouring of May support by Tory MPs the country is stuck with her for another 12 months.
My guess is that she does win but only narrowly. She'll try to cling on by her fingertips like El Gord but early next week the Cabinet will tell her times up.0 -
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424
The secret ballot v public declarations of support.0 -
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Fair point.Nemtynakht said:0 -
The general consensus at the moment on twitter is that she'll win big
BUT - how are we meant to know? There was always going to be a coordinated effort by the whips, but also- the vote is a secret ballot. So surely it's not wise to be totting up declarations of support for May when we'll have no idea...0 -
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Forget the MPs, what does Philip May think? Denis was pivotal in persuading Margaret Thatcher to throw in the towel, according to at least some reports.AlastairMeeks said:Rather than a list of the MPs tweeting their support, I'd like to see a list of the MPs keeping quiet.
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https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424
These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.0 -
Future historians might find Graham Brady's behaviour the most baffling of all.Scott_P said:0 -
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Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.0
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Just what I was hoping for, thanks for the link.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424
These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.0 -
The BBC appear to be able to tweet about the retrial of Peterborough's MP. The one with a small majority.
https://twitter.com/SiDedman/status/10727985908950507520 -
A bit of quality control or a mute button wouldn't go amiss. I could easily subscribe to someone's twitter feed if required.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He lost by 15 votes.grabcocque said:Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.
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He lost 90-75 - I'm not sure you can call that a whopping margin.grabcocque said:Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.
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Ding dong the witch is dead.
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Brady, presumably, originally proposed Monday to allow May to complete her Futility Tour, and give her the weekend to make her case.DecrepitJohnL said:
Future historians might find Graham Brady's behaviour the most baffling of all.Scott_P said:
But if May said she wanted to get it out of the way fast, I think it would have been churlish of Brady to refuse.
Can't seriously imagine there's anybody left who hasn't made up their mind, surely?0 -
If someone retracted their letter could they pull the vote? (Something T May is good at).DecrepitJohnL said:
Future historians might find Graham Brady's behaviour the most baffling of all.Scott_P said:0 -
Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.
If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.0 -
Check the number of ministers saying they "support" Theresa May against those - far fewer- who day they will vote for her. This might seem to over analyse, but politicians choose their words carefully. The second statement would be a lie if they do vote against, while "support" can mean what you want it to mean. Ditto "Now is not the time for a divisive leadership election". It doesn't mean they won't vote against May in that divisive election.0
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Or possibly undead.TGOHF said:Ding dong the witch is dead.
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It's definitely a betting opportunity. I think she'll win, narrowly, but the 3/1 you can get on Betfair Exchange right now on her losing looks tempting.Razedabode said:The general consensus at the moment on twitter is that she'll win big
BUT - how are we meant to know? There was always going to be a coordinated effort by the whips, but also- the vote is a secret ballot. So surely it's not wise to be totting up declarations of support for May when we'll have no idea...
What people say in public and what people say in private are two different things, plus May's strategy is clear now - run down the clock (and potentially run the economy into the ground) until we grasp at the last minute for her deal. That gives remainers and ERG-ers a solid reason to depose her now.
Not to mention the fact she's an absolute liability if she leads the Tories into an election in 2019. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly...0 -
Oh, I remember it being bigger. Possibly the massive surge of joy I felt has clouded my memory.tlg86 said:
He lost 90-75 - I'm not sure you can call that a whopping margin.grabcocque said:Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.
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He only ever is a messenger.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why not reply to the substance of the tweet rather than shooting the messenger.twistedfirestopper3 said:
You're a piss take, ain't you?Scott_P said:0 -
She will be politically undead for a year if the Tories fail to depose her now.grabcocque said:
Or possibly undead.TGOHF said:Ding dong the witch is dead.
Complete unbridled power !0 -
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If only there were some website where all these so-called "tweets" were collated, perhaps giving people the ability to subscribe to the ones they want to see.twistedfirestopper3 said:
He only ever is a messenger.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why not reply to the substance of the tweet rather than shooting the messenger.twistedfirestopper3 said:
You're a piss take, ain't you?Scott_P said:0 -
If those reported public numbers are roughly right I'd expect Theresa May to get something like 125 votes. A lot of those public professions of loyalty will be public only.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.
If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.0 -
The complete unbridled power of wasting another six weeks indulging in futile displacement activity until 21st Jan.Pulpstar said:
She will be politically undead for a year if the Tories fail to depose her now.grabcocque said:
Or possibly undead.TGOHF said:Ding dong the witch is dead.
Complete unbridled power !0 -
Betfair market thinks it's 75% for May to win ........ but that suggests she'll be pretty badly wounded by the result. 60/40?0
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Will Olly Robbins still get his bonus this year ?grabcocque said:
Or possibly undead.TGOHF said:Ding dong the witch is dead.
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Now 172 confidence, 81 no confidence. I think sh'e got this.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424
These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.0 -
She goes before Christmas or she goes next Spring. Those are the only foreseeable options.0
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Well we all know most likely Gove's support is public only !AlastairMeeks said:
If those reported public numbers are roughly right I'd expect Theresa May to get something like 125 votes. A lot of those public professions of loyalty will be public only.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.
If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.0 -
Will her performance at PMQs change anything?0
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176-80 nowBarnesian said:
Now 172 confidence, 81 no confidence. I think sh'e got this.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424
These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.0 -
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:0 -
I disagree. This is a vote to hand the tory party over to the ERG, which only has 70-80 members??AlastairMeeks said:
If those reported public numbers are roughly right I'd expect Theresa May to get something like 125 votes. A lot of those public professions of loyalty will be public only.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.
If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.
I think it'll be 115-202 or so...0 -
I want to be quite clear that nothing has changed.TheScreamingEagles said:Will her performance at PMQs change anything?
This deal is the only deal.
I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.0 -
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:0 -
A win is a win for May.0
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It depends what the EU27 leaders told Theresa May about rural bus routes, or whatever else Jeremy Corbyn decides to ask.TheScreamingEagles said:Will her performance at PMQs change anything?
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A win is a win for Remain.Pulpstar said:A win is a win for May.
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Whatever happens it;ll she do a heck of a lot better than Corbyn did in his VONC... and he stayed on.grabcocque said:
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:0 -
Well yes.grabcocque said:
A win is a win for Remain.Pulpstar said:A win is a win for May.
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As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".grabcocque said:
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:
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Yes she is a bit repetitive and boring.grabcocque said:
I want to be quite clear that nothing has changed.TheScreamingEagles said:Will her performance at PMQs change anything?
This deal is the only deal.
I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.
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The Number 10 spin last time was that it was May vs ERG. May's supporters need the spectre of the headbangers, even if it is most likely the next leader will be a Cabinet minister, and probably in a coronation.0
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Yes, you can publicly declare your support for May and then stab her in the back in the vote. The joys of a secret ballot.0
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IMO the number voting in favour of No Confidence will between 100 and 165 which obviously doesn't get us very far, a bit like the BBC's 1987 election exit poll which said the Tory majority would be between 20 and 100.0
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This is a nice test of the "she has a Cunning Sneaky Plan" theory vs the "she has Absolutely No Idea What She's Doing" hypothesis. On CSP Theory she needed to get the leadership spill done so she can do the vote and pivot. Per ANIWSD she'll just keep stalling until January 21st and hope something lucky happens.grabcocque said:
The complete unbridled power of wasting another six weeks indulging in futile displacement activity until 21st Jan.Pulpstar said:
She will be politically undead for a year if the Tories fail to depose her now.grabcocque said:
Or possibly undead.TGOHF said:Ding dong the witch is dead.
Complete unbridled power !0 -
An anecdote:
I was at a children's birthday party yesterday afternoon, and I listened to three other dads talk about this mess. I'm in a fairly strongly remain/Conservative area, but one of them (at least) is a Lib Dem.
All three expressed support for May, even if through gritted teeth. One said he thought she was the best option, and all three seemed to support the deal.
(Although as always when listening to such conversations, you have little idea how much agreement is real and just feigned to stop disagreements.)0 -
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.0 -
We're not leaving the EU, and we'll have a Corbyn government next year. Modern Tories just aren't very good at this politics thing.0
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Tell that to Ali... Rope-a-dope worked for him.TGOHF said:
As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".grabcocque said:
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:0 -
Desmond Swayne on Radio Five Live says he hasn't made up his mind yet. First Tory MP I've heard say that.
He says he didn't submit a letter, and didn't want a contest. But could still vote against May.0 -
179-800
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That 2019 GE point is an interesting one. Despite the FTPA it must at least be an outside chance. May at the helm?0
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