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Yep - although leaving on a publicly unverified no deal (which at the end of March might command less than a third of the electorate's support) is a form of suicide for them as well.Slackbladder said:
Well, if the options are No-deal, May's Deal, or Referendum, then if May's deal dies with her.tottenhamWC said:
From an incredibly good source - Javid is a no dealer as well. No outcomes here are good.MaxPB said:
The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whipHYUFD said:Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG
https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104
Problem is no tory could offer a referendum and hope to win the MPs/Membership. That would be poison.
So, risks a fundamental split of the party.0 -
They don't have to so long as their votes are critical in the commons they must be appeased. They're the DUP of the Tories.MaxPB said:
The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whipHYUFD said:Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG
https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10727545522255831040 -
Even Ted Heath losing in 1975 could be partly put down to Europe and his overenthusiastic support for it in the eyes of many Tory MPs, although that wasn't the main reason which was losing 3 out of 4 elections in terms of seats.Drutt said:Can Sunil or TSE make me a bar chart with "Years since Con PM ousted because of something other than Europe", value 44, and "Years since Con PM ousted because Europe", which will either be 2 or 0 depending on when today you make it.
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Charles Moore is as crap as John Humphrys. Thank God for Laura Kuenssberg!0
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No - I would vote for the party and retain my candidacyJonathan said:
If Boris was your leader and you were an MP would you vote for him in a VONC?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Any conservative mp doing that will be instantly deselectedChris_A said:
Well the malcontents just have to support Corbyn in a VoNC and she'll be gone by Friday.Beverley_C said:
If she wins by one vote, she will stay as Leader until they pry her fingers from the leavers of power. She does not seem to take hints...tlg86 said:She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.
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Holding a No Deal line for three months is going to be very tricky for the new leader, especially when the bad news starts to multiply.0
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I've never thought she would stay past march even if her deal passed. It's too late to promise that now.edmundintokyo said:Credit where it's due, the speed they're getting through this is impressive now it's actually going.
These guys are already at "bargaining":
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/10727703025417461760 -
FWIW I expect Theresa May to survive the vote tonight and carry on.0
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So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?0 -
The one thing about this is the matter will be known by 9.00pm tonight.
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Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?0
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What happens if there is a tie in the VONC?0
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No.148grss said:So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?0 -
Yep. I have to go to work. How inconsiderate. She's lost my vote.El_Capitano said:Being consistently late is the height of rudeness.
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+1JohnWheatley said:Is there a conflict between two well established memes - that she is increasingly admired for her fortitude (and so more electable?) and that she is electoral disaster. We will probably never know.
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SouthamObserver said:
Holding a No Deal line for three months is going to be very tricky for the new leader, especially when the bad news starts to multiply.
Completely. They will have minority public backing for this form of Brexit; plus it isn't even the first voting priority for many in a GE anyway (even if they are obsessed). Crazy.SouthamObserver said:Holding a No Deal line for three months is going to be very tricky for the new leader, especially when the bad news starts to multiply.
Separately, Owen Patterson is a complete idiot....0 -
If she loses she remains PM until her successor is elected148grss said:So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?0 -
Does Bercow get to vote in this?0
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Surely the possibility article 50 suspension has to be a factor in the next few weeks?
And can somebody please explain (because understanding Labour is now beyond my ken) just what the impact of this is on Corbyn's position. Is it better because Tories are a mess or worse because likely election means fighting a new leader.
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No, he doesn't have the whip.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
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Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
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She hasn't lost in that case and can carry on if she wishes. But she'd probably resign in practice.not_on_fire said:What happens if there is a tie in the VONC?
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She looks grim0
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The fact that last year most voters backed parties opposing a No Deal Brexit is going to become increasingly relevant as the loons drive us over the cliff. If it wasn’t for the damage it will do, the end of the Conservatives as a serious party of government would be a joy to behold.0
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So what do the ERG do if May wins?0
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"I will go on and on. Nothing has changed"0
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£15,000 of guaranteed 1% return at BFE is left...0
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Nothing has changed. Move along.0
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May: I will contest vote with everything I've got
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And it's still "my deal is the only deal"0
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Yawn.0
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I always thought the outgoing pm is supposed to tell HM who to call next. Because there's no obvious Tory leader I think May won't resign as PM as she won't be able to give a name. Sure Corbyn might be closer to being able to get a majority right now but he doesn't realistically have a great chance if doing so. FTPA may have changed it up too.148grss said:So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?0 -
Better a GE with the Tories led by a Brexiteer than Theresa “nothing has changed” May and her atrocious deal and blankety blank domestic policy agenda.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certainAmpfieldAndy said:
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want thatAmpfieldAndy said:May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
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She used the word ‘precious ‘!0
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That doesn't sound so convincing after her volte face on Monday about contesting votes.Freggles said:May: I will contest vote with everything I've got
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Good for herFreggles said:May: I will contest vote with everything I've got
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After ducking plan B questions for a month, May bounded herself unambiguously on Monday to stand and fall by the current deal, no Norway, no remain, no no deal under her.MarqueeMark said:The risk of May being bomb-proof with a general election looming is what dooms her.
Tom Peck of the Independent on SKY says she will lose it comfortably.
Therefore at first pass the confidence numbers to initially follow the Deal vote numbers. If we figure that around 110 of 250 backbench were against (sans a few payroll resignees), and that the payroll will split similarly, then we are at about 175-140.
At second pass, the prospect of locking in May for a year I reckon drives more votes against and this will outnumber anti-deal May backers, who would be mainly on the Remain wrong and few in number.
She could well lose in absolute numbers.
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May mentions "rescinding Article 50" !0
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No. He isn't a Conservative MP.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
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Whatever happens now at least everyone can stop speculating about the 48 bloody letters.0
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I wish she'd just fuck off.0
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May laying down the hard facts. Back me, or lose Brexit and let Labour in..
Balls in the ERG court....0 -
A narrow May win, with both sides screaming abuse in each other's faces would do for me. Then an immediate VONC so that the hypocritical wazzocks could be given the opportunity to lie to the camera about how having seconds ago screamed abuse about the Prime Minister demanding she goes that actually they do have confidence in her0
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It will not be the tories. It will be UKIP, all the conservatives will have resignedAmpfieldAndy said:
Better a GE with the Tories led by a Brexiteer than Theresa “nothing has changed” May and her atrocious deal and blankety blank domestic policy agenda.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certainAmpfieldAndy said:
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want thatAmpfieldAndy said:May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
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Full Metal Maybot.0
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Moderate, pragmatic, mainstream? Arguably, I suppose.0
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That not much; otherwise she’d be a better PM and have got a better deal.Freggles said:May: I will contest vote with everything I've got
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agreedRoger said:Charles Moore is as crap as John Humphrys. Thank God for Laura Kuenssberg!
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Weak.0
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Hancock says that was "characteristically strong and stable" Yes, really.0
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May is so boring. She says exactly the same thing every time.0
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Plenty of other less well-known Tory MPs may be thinking of it as they vote tonight.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
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May: only people who benefit from a leadership election are Corbyn and McDonnell0
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Yes indeed. Managed no deal if they cannot renegotiate seems like the only way someone gets to be leader but 2 months from now the public might be more concerned. And it's not easy to even pull a Tsipras and capitulate. He did despite a public vote, but our pm needs parliamentary approval and they might block capitulation no matter what.tottenhamWC said:
Yep - although leaving on a publicly unverified no deal (which at the end of March might command less than a third of the electorate's support) is a form of suicide for them as well.Slackbladder said:
Well, if the options are No-deal, May's Deal, or Referendum, then if May's deal dies with her.tottenhamWC said:
From an incredibly good source - Javid is a no dealer as well. No outcomes here are good.MaxPB said:
The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whipHYUFD said:Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG
https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104
Problem is no tory could offer a referendum and hope to win the MPs/Membership. That would be poison.
So, risks a fundamental split of the party.
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That slur won’t wash but if you want to sod off to the LibDems, be my guest.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will not be the tories. It will be UKIP, all the conservatives will have resignedAmpfieldAndy said:
Better a GE with the Tories led by a Brexiteer than Theresa “nothing has changed” May and her atrocious deal and blankety blank domestic policy agenda.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certainAmpfieldAndy said:
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want thatAmpfieldAndy said:May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
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She's right.RochdalePioneers said:And it's still "my deal is the only deal"
The Commons has to vote for that deal, or vote to overturn the referendum result, or accept that we leave with no withdrawal agreement.0 -
Yes but most Conservative MPs are Remainers so the Prime Minister's forewarnings of rescinding or extending Article 50 might be quite appealing, in which case she has just shot her own foot off.Slackbladder said:May laying down the hard facts. Back me, or lose Brexit and let Labour in..
Balls in the ERG court....0 -
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May be but they are not mutually exclusive. Admired for fortitude doesn't necessarily mean people would back her in a vote.JohnWheatley said:Is there a conflict between two well established memes - that she is increasingly admired for her fortitude (and so more electable?) and that she is electoral disaster. We will probably never know.
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Wow, oh wow. It finally happened. 47.99999 clicked over.
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Update: BF free money has gone0
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Mr. JohnL, aye. The noise of the ERG can be distracting but most Con MPs are pro-EU.
Do we have a timetable for today's doings?0 -
How much do MPs game their vote? In the US Congress, it happens all the time. If it is safe to vote against their party, they do so they can use that in the next election. Otherwise, they eat their principles and keep the party in power.dr_spyn said:Liam Fox up to back May.
https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1072771321422057472
Fox might just be saying he's supporting May because he knows she is going to lose ... Or am I too cynical?0 -
If May resigned as PM before the Tories elected a new leader, it would put the Queen in an impossible position and draw the monarchy into the centre of the Brexit crisis.kle4 said:
I always thought the outgoing pm is supposed to tell HM who to call next. Because there's no obvious Tory leader I think May won't resign as PM as she won't be able to give a name. Sure Corbyn might be closer to being able to get a majority right now but he doesn't realistically have a great chance if doing so. FTPA may have changed it up too.148grss said:So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
Quite possible that May will do it, then. :-(0 -
"I know you want rid of me, but that will cause too much of a faff-on, so best let me hang on"0
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Announcement some time after 8pmMorris_Dancer said:Mr. JohnL, aye. The noise of the ERG can be distracting but most Con MPs are pro-EU.
Do we have a timetable for today's doings?0 -
apart from the fact that a no-dealer would win the contest and be the new PM (or at least the leader of the Tory Party), and no doubt carry the process across to labour.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but most Conservative MPs are Remainers so the Prime Minister's forewarnings of rescinding or extending Article 50 might be quite appealing, in which case she has just shot her own foot off.Slackbladder said:May laying down the hard facts. Back me, or lose Brexit and let Labour in..
Balls in the ERG court....0 -
I think that is true. Hope so.AndyJS said:
Plenty of other less well-known Tory MPs may be thinking of it as they vote tonight.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
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Given that person's Twitter handle I doubt they are an objective view on the matter.Scott_P said:
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Far from it - having a weak and crap PM hanging on is perfect for Labour.Freggles said:May: only people who benefit from a leadership election are Corbyn and McDonnell
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I don't see how she can lose. Those voting against her would have to line up with the ERGers AND have another leader in mind. How many will vote against her when Boris might win? My guess is less than 100 will vote against her and she'll stay onJonathan said:
She expects to lose.Freggles said:May: I will contest vote with everything I've got
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Mr. B2, cheers.0
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It's a secret ballot. As a Cabinet member he has to publicly back the PM - his position in Cabinet would be untenable otherwise. I do hope someone is tallying the public declarations to compare against the actual vote.MTimT said:
How much do MPs game their vote? In the US Congress, it happens all the time. If it is safe to vote against their party, they do so they can use that in the next election. Otherwise, they eat their principles and keep the party in power.dr_spyn said:Liam Fox up to back May.
https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1072771321422057472
Fox might just be saying he's supporting May because he knows she is going to lose ... Or am I too cynical?0 -
Funny if the vote would hinge on how the suspended Tories would have voted.YellowSubmarine said:
No. He isn't a Conservative MP.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
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So we have 4 key dynamics: #1 Vote May to prevent utter chaos #2 Vote against May to save save the government from the DUP. #3 Should Uber Remainers vote against May to kill Brexit ? #4 Do pragmatists vote against May to bring government into line with the Tory membership as they know May's deal will split the Tory Party assunder ?0
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IIRC Tim Loughton was chief cheerleader for Andrea Leadsom in 2016.Scott_P said:0 -
They still block her deal. What can she do to them?Gallowgate said:So what do the ERG do if May wins?
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Personally I'm hoping she wins with 52%.kle4 said:
Funny if the vote would hinge on how the suspended Tories would have voted.YellowSubmarine said:
No. He isn't a Conservative MP.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
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If only Labour didn't have a weak and crap LOTO..SandyRentool said:
Far from it - having a weak and crap PM hanging on is perfect for Labour.Freggles said:May: only people who benefit from a leadership election are Corbyn and McDonnell
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List of Cabinet backers.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/100526/updating-live-theresa-may
Hammond still walking his dogs?0 -
So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?0
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I disagree. If and it’s a big if, the EU were willing to be flexible and agree side deals on a host of regulatory matters and grandfather us in to existing regulatory agreements we are party to. That could be done very easily. But they’ve made it fairly clear so far, that we need to own Brexit. It’s wa or no deal. I would expect them to relent on some things.Scott_P said:
I have party members who are frothing at the mouth for a no deal.0 -
It'll be interesting to see if any Tory MPs who refused to sign a letter nonetheless say they'll vote against her tonight. Probably very few will say so publicly.0
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It's already absolutely clear that the deal will not pass the Commons. It was to be defeated so heavily that she pulled it because frit. Think how much support it would get having had her cling on in a shouty confidence vote in her frit non-leadership.Donny43 said:
She's right.RochdalePioneers said:And it's still "my deal is the only deal"
The Commons has to vote for that deal, or vote to overturn the referendum result, or accept that we leave with no withdrawal agreement.
The deal is dead. The referendum cannot be delivered without crash Brexit which MPs also will not allow. Which means at the very least kicking the A50 can down the road...0 -
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
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Paddys odds on her losing the vote are swinging wildly. Was 6/4 before her public statement. Now 11/4 and 1/4 she wins.0
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