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The million dollar question is what happens when you squeeze the 'no deal' vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
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I am not sure she will - she has said she will leave it to Parliament and if she is in place for 12 months expect to see her support a second referendum which would be the ultimate irony over ERG childish gamesPulpstar said:
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
Certainly Davis had a legitimate grievance, having worked up his own set of documents with his department only to have no.10 substitute its own proposals.David_Evershed said:
May has effectively been the DEXEU Sec of State since the start. Might as well formally recognise it.El_Capitano said:We should be due an announcement on DEXEU SoS before long. My guess is that Liam Fox will get a joint DIT/DEXEU portfolio.
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Will the published legal advice (when it comes) make any difference to anything?0
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All those jumping on the supposed bump in sales of Mail as meaning x or y. I bet most of the public don't even have the foggiest that Dacre has gone (or actually who he is / the politics of the replacement), let alone think well I must give the Mail a try now.El_Capitano said:The media correspondent at BuzzFeed news reckons that, contrary to suggestions on here a couple of times, Daily Mail print circulation is down since Greig took over:
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1063364109725564928
It's down YoY too.
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
Also, I seem to remember that The Currant Bun on Sunday launched after the NOTW closing for the first few weeks did roaring numbers, as have some relaunching of other papers, but ultimately that momentum doesn't continue.
Short term changes in the newspaper market might show some rise, but long term trend is only one direction, downhill. So I wouldn't take it that if the Mail lost more readers by this time next year, it is exclusively a more anti-Brexit stance either.0 -
I agree and that s now my preferred option thanks to the ERGHYUFD said:
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
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Brexit Sec does not need to be in HoC. Lord Hague.0
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And there is still no obvious leading contenderHYUFD said:
Rubbish she will try it again only this time threaten EUref2 if the Commons votes it down again.Pulpstar said:
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
May has the hide of a rhino as she made clear yesterday and is digging in hard-1 -
How very Dr Seuss.OchEye said:BBC news just had a couple of MP's on, predicting Cox or Fox for Brexit Minister - please let it be Cox!
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Surely there will be a reward for all his efforts?
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/10634084898784829440 -
No, I am not conflating. I am talking about our political class. They are the face of Britain to other governments. The ordinary citizens simply do not figure in international politics unless they do a "Storming of the Winter Palace" or "Shooting the Ceausescus"John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
We are much on the same page these last few daysHYUFD said:
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
https://youtu.be/DGXx56WqqJwHYUFD said:
Rubbish she will try it again only this time threaten EUref2 if the Commons votes it down again.Pulpstar said:
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
May has the hide of a rhino as she made clear yesterday and is digging in hard
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Agreed and the polling confirms itBig_G_NorthWales said:
We are much on the same page these last few daysHYUFD said:
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.0 -
Indeedwilliamglenn said:
The million dollar question is what happens when you squeeze the 'no deal' vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
SecondedOchEye said:BBC news just had a couple of MP's on, predicting Cox or Fox for Brexit Minister - please let it be Cox!
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To be fair, whenever is a previous encumbant who offers to come back and show his successors what to do ever actually welcome?RoyalBlue said:
It would be good if you or he could share that information with Tim Shipman for his next book.ExiledInScotland said:
I think I've told this story before. If so please forgive me.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.
Let's just say that I know a retired senior civil servant who was among the last generation to negotiate international treaties before we joined the EEC. After the Brexit vote, he and former colleagues contacted the cabinet office to offer to come in to speak to their modern counterparts and pass on institutional knowledge before they died or were too gaga to be of help. Six month later they received a reply that their kind offer was not necessary as the large consultancies were being retained to train civil servants in how to do this.
Says it all really.0 -
And not the numbers to topple MayIanB2 said:
And there is still no obvious leading contenderHYUFD said:
Rubbish she will try it again only this time threaten EUref2 if the Commons votes it down again.Pulpstar said:
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
May has the hide of a rhino as she made clear yesterday and is digging in hard0 -
If he's lucky they will give him chief tea-boy job, as it is clear that they have been highly reluctant to give him any proper top job.rottenborough said:Surely there will be a reward for all his efforts?
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/10634084898784829440 -
Yes through their pigheadedness the odds of Brexit being cancelled and Remain are increasing every dayfelix said:
I agree and that s now my preferred option thanks to the ERGHYUFD said:
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
An actuarial estimate of the proportion of people who voted for it who will live to see it would certainly be one of the most interesting potential outputs from that profession.williamglenn said:
An actuary could tell you the problem for them with Brexit taking 15 years.MaxPB said:I think the problem with the ERGers is that they underestimate the power of leaving. Yes we'll still be in the customs union and yes there's another 4 years of being bummed by the ECJ, but we will have left. That break would still be a huge victory. Brexit will take 15 years to complete IMO, expecting it to be done by March of next year is completely stupid.
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Disgraced national security risk Liam Fox is currently pissing whatever credibility he had left explaining that a bad deal is better than no deal.0
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It is just name recognition as a Brexit person, same with JRM.CarlottaVance said:Surprised at the Davis number:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10634092279668940800 -
A cabinet within a cabinet.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.0 -
Yes 50 Tory MPs are said to back EUref2 over Remain as will most opposition MPs.swing_voter said:
to call an EU Ref 2, she will need the support of HoC......will she get it?, a GE is more likelyHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
A general election though will get no Tory MPs voting for it though is possible I suppose if the DUP vote down the government0 -
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.0 -
Phobic is missing from your user nameXenon said:
Of course it matters.JosiasJessop said:
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.Xenon said:
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.JosiasJessop said:
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.Xenon said:
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?Benpointer said:
They are that crap.Xenon said:Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
Sums up the lot of them.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.0 -
Lol @ "60:40". If there is a chaotic catastrophe as we exit then the backlash from voters will be something to behold.Pulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
I think Gove's grouping in Cabinet is trying to get there - without her consent....Pulpstar said:If the Tories were smart they'd agree a deal with May where they stuck with her till the 29th March then elect a new leader thereafter. She'll deserve the rest after getting Brexit over the line quite frankly !
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Good old May
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1063391398538416128
Note: people still prefer the chaos and economic oblivion of no deal by 2:1 over anything tainted with the stench of May's deceit.
Problem seems to be that nobody trusts her: not leavers, not remainers. I suspect that this 2:1 deficit against May's deal will only get worse, because May has no ability to sell anything to anyone, nobody trusts May or the EU's promises, and it's going to be attacked loudly and continuously by everyone.
If and when this deal makes it to a vote its going to have a reputation as clean as Jimmy Savile's.0 -
The EU have said the WDA is not open to any change but that the political declaration could be tweakedFoxy said:
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.0 -
I never thought I'd write this but even young-fogey old-book wallah @Mortimer, one of PB's Brexit hardliners, is behind this deal. It shows just how deranged the utter prickface quarterwits who have resigned or wrote nasty letters are. Truly, no-dealers are thick wreckers. The absolute state of them.0
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Top of the class on that this morning Malcmalcolmg said:
Phobic is missing from your user nameXenon said:
Of course it matters.JosiasJessop said:
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.Xenon said:
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.JosiasJessop said:
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.Xenon said:
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?Benpointer said:
They are that crap.Xenon said:Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
Sums up the lot of them.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.0 -
H
As no deal is almost certainly the worst deal, and some way worse than what’s on offer, he is for once in his life, correct.grabcocque said:Disgraced national security risk Liam Fox is currently pissing whatever credibility he had left explaining that a bad deal is better than no deal.
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Despite the criticism, she's put herself in the best position she can. If the 48 letters don't appear then ERG's fox is shot and their credibility gone. If the letters come in and she wins, she's secure for a year. I'd estimate these two outcomes as covering at least 80% probability between them.Richard_Nabavi said:
She is woeful, but ironically the one thing she has done well - negotiating a decent Brexit against the odds - is the reason she now might not survive. A funny old world, indeed.MarqueeMark said:Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.0 -
It's becuase both 'sides' are unwilling to compromise and meet in the middle.grabcocque said:Good old May
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1063391398538416128
Note: people still prefer the chaos and economic oblivion of no deal by 2:1 over anything tainted with the stench of May's deceit.
Problem seems to be that nobody trusts her: not leavers, not remainers. I suspect that this 2:1 deficit against May's deal will only get worse, because May has no ability to sell anything to anyone, nobody trusts May or the EU's promises, and it's going to be attacked loudly and continuously by everyone.
If and when this deal makes it to a vote its going to have a reputation as clean as Jimmy Savile's.
Something politics needs more of, otherwise, we're just going to get two polarised views on everything and no one will be will to give anything at all.
It's happening in all areas, and its not healthy.0 -
Of course they said that. But if you *believe* that, you're an idiot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU have said the WDA is not open to any change but that the political declaration could be tweakedFoxy said:
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.
It seems to me that May has explicit instructions to re-open negotiations on the backstop and Northern Ireland, both from her remaining cabinet and her coalition partners. If she cannot convince them to eat their ill-chosen words, perhaps they will find somebody who can.0 -
Juncker turns up at press conference in 1 black shoe and 1 brown shoe
https://mobile.twitter.com/freespirited_p/status/10633312621512130560 -
Where is the 2.1 no deal on this pollgrabcocque said:Good old May
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1063391398538416128
Note: people still prefer the chaos and economic oblivion of no deal by 2:1 over anything tainted with the stench of May's deceit.
Problem seems to be that nobody trusts her: not leavers, not remainers. I suspect that this 2:1 deficit against May's deal will only get worse, because May has no ability to sell anything to anyone, nobody trusts May or the EU's promises, and it's going to be attacked loudly and continuously by everyone.
If and when this deal makes it to a vote its going to have a reputation as clean as Jimmy Savile's.
And why do you feel the need to be crude0 -
Afternoon GIN, Do you think Theresa or her duff replacement will run up for the second oneGIN1138 said:
It seemed to all kick off in 2014 with the Scottish referendum and Cameron's panic-stricken dash "up north" after *that* YouGov poll.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
I think when people saw the power they had to troll their politicians they kinda liked it...
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That man is a total drunken embarrassment.HYUFD said:Juncker turns up at press conference in 1 black shoe and 1 brown shoe
https://mobile.twitter.com/freespirited_p/status/10633312621512130560 -
The political declaration is just an aspiration rather than agreed destination, so non binding and of little consequence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU have said the WDA is not open to any change but that the political declaration could be tweakedFoxy said:
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.0 -
I was out at a party last night and obviously the day's events came up. I said that yesterday had completely changed my view about EURef2 actually happening (unlike you I would still rather not have it as I hate referendums and don't agree with our holding them).felix said:
I agree and that s now my preferred option thanks to the ERGHYUFD said:
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
I now think it's fairly likely that it will happen as it'll rapidly become the only option for the PM if the pillocks from the ERG continue with their deranged antics. I sometimes think that the eurosceptics would rather we Remained – as their entire raison d'être would be destroyed were we to actually leave.0 -
Davis made a fool of himself in that role, he lied to the select committee and made absolutely no progress in negotiations, his time has passed. he is to blame as much as May for this mess.IanB2 said:
Certainly Davis had a legitimate grievance, having worked up his own set of documents with his department only to have no.10 substitute its own proposals.David_Evershed said:
May has effectively been the DEXEU Sec of State since the start. Might as well formally recognise it.El_Capitano said:We should be due an announcement on DEXEU SoS before long. My guess is that Liam Fox will get a joint DIT/DEXEU portfolio.
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Just usual lies and fu**wittery, Mundell and her are in hiding avoiding having to admit their lies on resignations.Theuniondivvie said:
Ruth and her several dwarves were certainly arguing that re. Brexit at one point, fuck knows what their position is now.CarlottaVance said:
But the North British have excelled themselves in arguing against the folly of ripping the country from an economic union.....Theuniondivvie said:
Perfidy may very well count as successful diplomacy, what's happening now isn't either. Henceforth we shall be known as 'bit shit, doesn't know its arse from its elbow Albion'.John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
Utter rubbish.grabcocque said:Good old May
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1063391398538416128
Note: people still prefer the chaos and economic oblivion of no deal by 2:1 over anything tainted with the stench of May's deceit.
Problem seems to be that nobody trusts her: not leavers, not remainers. I suspect that this 2:1 deficit against May's deal will only get worse, because May has no ability to sell anything to anyone, nobody trusts May or the EU's promises, and it's going to be attacked loudly and continuously by everyone.
If and when this deal makes it to a vote its going to have a reputation as clean as Jimmy Savile's.
Most of those who oppose May's Deal in that poll are Remainers, indeed only 32% back No Deal as Sky's poll showed yesterday
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10631197430314106880 -
Spot on. The only way is down for the Mail and every other newspaper, regardless of whether it is Paul Dacre, Geordie Greig or Wayne Rooney in the editor's chair.FrancisUrquhart said:
All those jumping on the supposed bump in sales of Mail as meaning x or y. I bet most of the public don't even have the foggiest that Dacre has gone (or actually who he is / the politics of the replacement), let alone think well I must give the Mail a try now.El_Capitano said:The media correspondent at BuzzFeed news reckons that, contrary to suggestions on here a couple of times, Daily Mail print circulation is down since Greig took over:
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1063364109725564928
It's down YoY too.
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
Also, I seem to remember that The Currant Bun on Sunday launched after the NOTW closing for the first few weeks did roaring numbers, as have some relaunching of other papers, but ultimately that momentum doesn't continue.
Short term changes in the newspaper market might show some rise, but long term trend is only one direction, downhill. So I wouldn't take it that if the Mail lost more readers by this time next year, it is exclusively a more anti-Brexit stance either.0 -
Oh, I dunno, I think Jimmy Savile is a nice metaphor for May's deal.
Protected by a Tory prime minister
Claimed to be a national treasure by the right wing press
Is actually secretly banging all the corpses in the morgue0 -
Desperately trying to prove he is somebody and escape from his obscurityrottenborough said:Surely there will be a reward for all his efforts?
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/10634084898784829440 -
I think Gove is trying to have as little to do with Brexit as possible. Be won't touch the Brexit Sec role with a bargepole. He makes a statement about the Brexit deal by resigning. So he doesn't resign.0
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Chortle.Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.0 -
Leaving would certainly deprive them of their narcotic fix of being able to blame everything they don't like about the modern world upon the EUAnazina said:
I was out at a party last night and obviously the day's events came up. I said that yesterday had completely changed my view about EURef2 actually happening (unlike you I would still rather not have it as I hate referendums and don't agree with our holding them).felix said:
I agree and that s now my preferred option thanks to the ERGHYUFD said:
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
I now think it's fairly likely that it will happen as it'll rapidly become the only option for the PM if the pillocks from the ERG continue with their deranged antics. I sometimes think that the eurosceptics would rather we Remained – as their entire raison d'être would be destroyed were we to actually leave.0 -
Not sure the likes of the BBC and the Labour politicians are willing to protect May's deal like they did with rumours of Savile's behaviour, nor are left wing papers claiming it to be a national treasure like they did with Jimmy.grabcocque said:Oh, I dunno, I think Jimmy Savile is a nice metaphor for May's deal.
Protected by a Tory prime minister
Claimed to be a national treasure by the right wing press
Is actually secretly banging all the corpses in the morgue0 -
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ? Brady must be having a right old laugh as he holds onto his {20,....,47} letters.Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
Hello G, what a hullabaloo on here and in Westminster. We are in for a rocky ride. Will you be moving to a newly independent Scotland.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Top of the class on that this morning Malcmalcolmg said:
Phobic is missing from your user nameXenon said:
Of course it matters.JosiasJessop said:
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.Xenon said:
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.JosiasJessop said:
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.Xenon said:
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?Benpointer said:
They are that crap.Xenon said:Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
Sums up the lot of them.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.0 -
OT really interesting piece on Bellingcat on how Russian intelligence coerced someone working for a contractor doing visa processing for Britain to compromise the system for them.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/11/16/spies-without-borders-fsb-infiltrated-international-visa-system/
I like the bit where he tries to tell the British Consulate about it and they ignore him.0 -
I though he said that they had 48 and dozen to spare - or was that somebody else?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
Are we still stuck on 47.9999999Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
Steve Baker on the Daily Politics now. Not a nice man!0
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Pathetic.Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
This looks like fizzling out to me.0 -
Precisely...Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ? Brady must be having a right old laugh as he holds onto his {20,....,47} letters.Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
The only person who actually knows is that prick tease Brady. Everyone else is just trying to read the tea leaves or create a narrative on twitter.Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
That’s why Bannon calls himself a Leninist.Beverley_C said:
Perhaps they have traversed the political circle and have arrived at Marx's belief that the system needs to be torn down and then rebuilt (or it might have been Lenin, but they are both dead commies so it probably does not matter)Richard_Nabavi said:Unless [the ERG] are just smashing up the party and country for the fun of it, which admittedly does look a rather good fit to the facts.
0 -
He's following May's strategy in the EU referendum then 😉.FF43 said:I think Gove is trying to have as little to do with Brexit as possible. Be won't touch the Brexit Sec role with a bargepole. He makes a statement about the Brexit deal by resigning. So he doesn't resign.
0 -
I'd suggest the Brexit Batman and Robin appearance of Baker/JRM with their glorious impromptu pitch outside Westminster yesterday might have annoyed more than one or two of their fellow party.... presumably trying to keep momentum for the last letters needed OR they are well over already depending on how Baker's sums are adding up.stjohn said:Steve Baker on the Daily Politics now. Not a nice man!
0 -
So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?0
-
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.0 -
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are we still stuck on 47.9999999Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
If I refer you to Yes Minister / Prime Minister - the exact same civil servant hierarchy who were last week....tlg86 said:So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?
0 -
Sure, but if we assume the government survives more than a few months (I doubt it personally) and recognising that they have sadly lost plenty of people from posts in the last year and that, shall we say, not all ministers are of exceptional quality, he may as well get rewarded for at least trying here. He's putting in more effort the people in the Great Offices of State (bar May).malcolmg said:
Desperately trying to prove he is somebody and escape from his obscurityrottenborough said:Surely there will be a reward for all his efforts?
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/10634084898784829440 -
But its dozens, dozens over i tells ye.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
Precisely...Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ? Brady must be having a right old laugh as he holds onto his {20,....,47} letters.Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
Perhaps they could use this newly found constant in calculating the kilogram?Anazina said:
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are we still stuck on 47.9999999Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-461433990 -
No-one in the Conservative Party has the ability to negotiate their way out of a paper bag.....malcolmg said:
Just usual lies and fu**wittery, Mundell and her are in hiding avoiding having to admit their lies on resignations.Theuniondivvie said:
Ruth and her several dwarves were certainly arguing that re. Brexit at one point, fuck knows what their position is now.CarlottaVance said:
But the North British have excelled themselves in arguing against the folly of ripping the country from an economic union.....Theuniondivvie said:
Perfidy may very well count as successful diplomacy, what's happening now isn't either. Henceforth we shall be known as 'bit shit, doesn't know its arse from its elbow Albion'.John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.
Actually, make that in British politics. (NI excluded....)0 -
Better find a replacement for McVey soon - otherwise the CS might go for UDI.Scrapheap_as_was said:
If I refer you to Yes Minister / Prime Minister - the exact same civil servant hierarchy who were last week....tlg86 said:So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?
0 -
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.grabcocque said:Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.0 -
Thinking about perhaps the solution is an Indian partition style population swap. EUphobes are moved to the newly independant Wales and we give those Welsh who to live in the modern era a sack of cash and coastal Essex and Kent (or Somerset perhaps). Wales 2.0. Everybody wins.0
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More to the point, why did Cameron bother doing the whole fake-renegotiation-followed-by-a-referendum thinggrabcocque said:Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.0 -
Chief whip cancels all briefings with MPs today on the Brexit deal.0
-
Indeed it isn't. MPs, most of whom say no deal is a catastrophe, should be very worried that so many would support no deal. It should give them pause when the blasely assume a GE or referendum would of course give them the remain that they want.Slackbladder said:
It's becuase both 'sides' are unwilling to compromise and meet in the middle.grabcocque said:Good old May
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1063391398538416128
Note: people still prefer the chaos and economic oblivion of no deal by 2:1 over anything tainted with the stench of May's deceit.
Problem seems to be that nobody trusts her: not leavers, not remainers. I suspect that this 2:1 deficit against May's deal will only get worse, because May has no ability to sell anything to anyone, nobody trusts May or the EU's promises, and it's going to be attacked loudly and continuously by everyone.
If and when this deal makes it to a vote its going to have a reputation as clean as Jimmy Savile's.
Something politics needs more of, otherwise, we're just going to get two polarised views on everything and no one will be will to give anything at all.
It's happening in all areas, and its not healthy.0 -
The political declaration is almost a one pager and is Canada, absolutely no plus. Say what we want and they will come back, give us your fish and we can talk.Foxy said:
The political declaration is just an aspiration rather than agreed destination, so non binding and of little consequence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU have said the WDA is not open to any change but that the political declaration could be tweakedFoxy said:
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.0 -
Nope - same man..... reassuring isn't it.Beverley_C said:
I though he said that they had 48 and dozen to spare - or was that somebody else?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
I even have some sympathy for JRM when you look at the breadth and depth of the wing-nuts he has to try and herd in the ERG. some make wing-nut in chief Chris Williamson seem main-stream.0 -
I wonder how often he checks his letterbox.grabcocque said:
The only person who actually knows is that prick tease Brady. Everyone else is just trying to read the tea leaves or create a narrative on twitter.Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
Exactlyedmundintokyo said:
More to the point, why did Cameron bother doing the whole fake-renegotiation-followed-by-a-referendum thinggrabcocque said:Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.0 -
Appointing yourself chief of the morons isn't an action worthy of any sympathy.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Nope - same man..... reassuring isn't it.Beverley_C said:
I though he said that they had 48 and dozen to spare - or was that somebody else?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
I even have some sympathy for JRM when you look at the breadth and depth of the wing-nuts he has to try and herd in the ERG. some make wing-nut in chief Chris Williamson seem main-stream.0 -
Tell that to Labour and half the Tory party (I'm still not convinces totally no negotiation is possible, I just don't think anything significant is likely and it opens up more risks so is not worth it).Foxy said:
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.grabcocque said:This does not sound to me like a cabinet that is behind May's godforsaken deal.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.
The LD position on these things is generally more honest.0 -
I wonder what would happen if Brady had been found to not picking up his mail?logical_song said:
I wonder how often he checks his letterbox.grabcocque said:
The only person who actually knows is that prick tease Brady. Everyone else is just trying to read the tea leaves or create a narrative on twitter.Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/10634123472246333440 -
You do not become the public face of such a group without choosing to do so. It's the same reason sympathy for May's troubles only goes so far, since she did ask to be PM.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Nope - same man..... reassuring isn't it.Beverley_C said:
I though he said that they had 48 and dozen to spare - or was that somebody else?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
I even have some sympathy for JRM when you look at the breadth and depth of the wing-nuts he has to try and herd in the ERG. Some make wing-nut in chief Chris Williamson seem main-stream.
0 -
we're talking a thimble at best.... 99.9% is negative - given my location on the tory spectrum, it's hardly anything but seriously look at some of the state of the people he's got in there....IanB2 said:
Appointing yourself chief of the morons isn't an action worthy of any sympathy.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Nope - same man..... reassuring isn't it.Beverley_C said:
I though he said that they had 48 and dozen to spare - or was that somebody else?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
I even have some sympathy for JRM when you look at the breadth and depth of the wing-nuts he has to try and herd in the ERG. some make wing-nut in chief Chris Williamson seem main-stream.0 -
Compare and contrastBeverley_C said:
I though he said that they had 48 and dozen to spare - or was that somebody else?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
https://order-order.com/2018/11/16/steve-baker-48-letters-reached/0 -
Probably can't find anyone willing to speak in favour of it.grabcocque said:Chief whip cancels all briefings with MPs today on the Brexit deal.
0 -
Indeed. A wise move.FrancisUrquhart said:
Perhaps they could use this newly found constant in calculating the kilogram?Anazina said:
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are we still stuck on 47.9999999Pulpstar said:
Hold on wasn't he over the line earlier ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Baker's maths might be worse than Diane's....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063412347224633344
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-461433990 -
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.Stereotomy said:
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.grabcocque said:Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
0 -
Have they got to 48 or not?0
