Frankly, this is nonsense. Nothing is forever. There will never be a 'last word' on our relations with European countries (note: not just 'The EU'). Time doesn't just bear all its sons away. If Brexit: Take One fails, it'll be because people lack patience.
Say the loons are correct and we're to be something between a vassal state or an EU colony. How long do you think that would last if we really put our minds to it? We're the UK, fifthish largest economy in the world, nuclear power, cricket, bulldogs etc. It's not a rerun of the Delian league.
You raise an interesting point. I do understand the concerns of the more strident leavers here, that if we don't get it right from the start we will be in a very bad place, but it just reminds of of Daniel Hannan's book, where 90% talks about how great this country is and all it has faced and achieved...then essentially concludes we have no chance of overcoming the obstacles before us in the EU.
Now, while I did vote leave because I did not like the direction of the EU, I do get surprised by this attitude of how blooming great we are, and yet simultaneously thinking that we have no chance of overcoming things in our path like, for instance, a sub-optimal deal. Sure they must be worried, not unreasonably, that once it is done a lot of people will not want to reopen it for quite some time, and why indeed should they face the prospect of decades more struggle. But nothing is forever, as you say. It won't be easy to change things if this deal is adopted, it might even take a long time, but to act like we will never have the chance is simply very defeatist.
And yes, this argument could be flipped, as I have myself suggested to those who think the EU's greatness is self evident, and our need to be in it just as much, that clearly we will get back in not that long from now, even if we take a compromise on a deal to leave now, rather than fight tooth and nail and risk all to remain.
Following the failure of the Cabinet rebels to exert any leaverage and Gove, Leadsom etc not resigning, Conservative Leavers will be forced to resort to trying to change the Conservative leader and send in their letters.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
I'm not wrong, because I did not say that the deal could not be reopened or renegotiated. I said it would not be easy to reopen and obtain things from it. More specifically, and I did not say this in that particular post, to obtain substantive things from it.
You may disagree about how easy it would be, but if you are going to stun me with your vast experience of negotiation you might first want to check that I said you what you think I said.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
Doesn't say it cannot be reopened.
Damn, my ego is acting up.
Tell them you aren't signing. See what happens.
It's interesting you don't want to listen to people with expertise on matters in hand.
I am listening. I believe you that we can reopen negotiations. I don't know why you regard me thinking it would not be easy as disbelieving that point. Are you telling me that your negotiations are always easy?
You seem to be searching for something to disagree about and are outright pretending I have said something I haven't as you are still acting like I said we cannot reopen things (which, no matter what kind of expert you are on negotiation, is just plain incorrect, it is there in quoted black and white) - I'm not the one saying we cannot try to reopen this. Just that assuming certainty of success when we do is reckless. If Labour and the Tories want to go in and try that's fine, just don't have them tell me they will definitely gain what they want and there is no risk.
Do you think our politicians will definitely obtain a better deal very easily? I'm surprised you have such confidence in PM Corbyn or PM Tory as yet unknown.
A couple of days back, one of the supermarket chief executives was interviewed on R4, and said that they had done little or no planning for no deal, as they regarded it as futile...
Yes, in that business there isn't anything much they can do.
What can most UK based businesses do in reality ?
On that point, there isn't a big difference between Deal and No Deal. The main thing businesses can do is NOT invest in the UK.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
Of course it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
Jezza has been for Leave for 40 years and called on Cameron to invoke Article 50 on the morning after the refernedum... It doesn't take a genius to work out what he thinks!
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
Maybe - a little bit.
To be honest, I can see May getting away with this. The deal will pass and the collective sense of relief and euphoria will propel the Conservatives to a GE victory early next year.
They will then have to start dealing with some of the real problems in this country which I alluded to earlier and about which their performance has been sub-optimal in my view.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
The number of people seemingly confusing the transition period and the final deal is astounding, and many of them appear to be journalists and MPs.
Following the failure of the Cabinet rebels to exert any leaverage and Gove, Leadsom etc not resigning, Conservative Leavers will be forced to resort to trying to change the Conservative leader and send in their letters.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
Maybe - a little bit.
To be honest, I can see May getting away with this. The deal will pass and the collective sense of relief and euphoria will propel the Conservatives to a GE victory early next year.
They will then have to start dealing with some of the real problems in this country which I alluded to earlier and about which their performance has been sub-optimal in my view.
Your last paragraph is true whoever is in government. There is no prospect I can see of getting back to good government anytime soon, given the state of the two main parties and indeed the smaller parties.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
And then Con gets smashed to pieces by Jezza. And deservedly so...
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
It would be an incredible achievement. An incredibly good one if the deal is indeed the best we can do, and incredibly bad if the ERG are right, but an incredible achievement either way.
But surely the Tories would need to try to draw a line under things, and self inflicted though many of her troubles are, also surely it would be well worth standing down once this phase is done? Yes public service is meant to be a burden and not a cool job for policy wonks, and yes they volunteer for it, but who would want to stay on after this? I get seeing it through to the bitter end, but beyond?
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
And then Con gets smashed to pieces by Jezza. And deservedly so...
If the next election is on time (I have money on 2019 though) the Tories will have been in office for 12 years. That's a good run for a party in this country.
Your last paragraph is true whoever is in government. There is no prospect I can see of getting back to good government anytime soon, given the state of the two main parties and indeed the smaller parties.
Well, that's an honest comment and on that at least we agree.
I suspect you will always prefer a Conservative Government to a Labour Government and especially in the current circumstances. I'm less convinced.
I would point out the one thing of which we can be certain is the current circumstances won't last forever.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
And then Con gets smashed to pieces by Jezza. And deservedly so...
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
Of course it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
Independence is a rather complicated concept, especially in the modern world where few, if any, countries are truly independent.
A person's wage packet is a very simple and direct concept, especially when it is reduced or removed.
Hence to most individuals the latter matters much more than the former. As I recall this played a part in the Scottish Indy referendum.
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
The number of people seemingly confusing the transition period and the final deal is astounding, and many of them appear to be journalists and MPs.
I think most people believe there will be no "final deal" as through the transition the EU will have us exactly where they want us... So why would they take their boot of our throat and do a final deal?
Selmayr is quite open about the fact that nothing less than the destruction of the UK will do and that's what the May/Robbins "agreement" is set up to do.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
Of course it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
Independence is a rather complicated concept, especially in the modern world where few, if any, countries are truly independent.
A person's wage packet is a very simple and direct concept, especially when it is reduced or removed.
Hence to most individuals the latter matters much more than the former. As I recall this played a part in the Scottish Indy referendum.
I am listening. I believe you that we can reopen negotiations. I don't know why you regard me thinking it would not be easy as disbelieving that point. Are you telling me that your negotiations are always easy?
You seem to be searching for something to disagree about and are outright pretending I have said something I haven't as you are still acting like I said we cannot reopen things (which, no matter what kind of expert you are on negotiation, is just plain incorrect, it is there in quoted black and white) - I'm not the one saying we cannot try to reopen this. Just that assuming certainty of success when we do is reckless. If Labour and the Tories want to go in and try that's fine, just don't have them tell me they will definitely gain what they want and there is no risk.
Do you think our politicians will definitely obtain a better deal very easily? I'm surprised you have such confidence in PM Corbyn or PM Tory as yet unknown.
I have 25 years experience negotiating oil and gas deals in 70-odd countries on every continent.
It's involved often facing state oil companies or mega-corps like Shell or Exxon. Some of the people on the other side of the table have been extremely able. Some have just been thugs, with the power of the state behind them. I was often playing poker against them holding not much more than a nine high. And yet, I've never failed to land a deal I didn't want to do, on terms the Board then signed off on.
So yes, I can look at a negotiating situation, assess what people want, what people need, what people are trying on as nice-to-haves. In my view, the UK position with the EU has been extremely poorly handled, from the start of Cameron's renegotiation position to date. There is more to achieve, if we have the political will. We do not have that will under May/Robbins.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
And then Con gets smashed to pieces by Jezza. And deservedly so...
Wishful thinking
I think the opposite is true. If the Tories go for one of the leaver legends in their own lunchtime they will be smashed.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
Maybe - a little bit.
To be honest, I can see May getting away with this. The deal will pass and the collective sense of relief and euphoria will propel the Conservatives to a GE victory early next year.
They will then have to start dealing with some of the real problems in this country which I alluded to earlier and about which their performance has been sub-optimal in my view.
I doubt it very much. Most people are not obsessed with Brexit regardless of how they voted in the Referendum. The 2017 election was not dominated by the issue , and I find it unlikely that it will be any different next time. Voters will be receptive to other problems - which will certainly come to the fore in the course of a 5 or 6 week campaign.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.
I am listening. I believe you that we can reopen negotiations. I don't know why you regard me thinking it would not be easy as disbelieving that point. Are you telling me that your negotiations are always easy?
You seem to be searching for something to disagree about and are outright pretending I have said something I haven't as you are still acting like I said we cannot reopen things (which, no matter what kind of expert you are on negotiation, is just plain incorrect, it is there in quoted black and white) - I'm not the one saying we cannot try to reopen this. Just that assuming certainty of success when we do is reckless. If Labour and the Tories want to go in and try that's fine, just don't have them tell me they will definitely gain what they want and there is no risk.
Do you think our politicians will definitely obtain a better deal very easily? I'm surprised you have such confidence in PM Corbyn or PM Tory as yet unknown.
I have 25 years experience negotiating oil and gas deals in 70-odd countries on every continent.
It's involved often facing state oil companies or mega-corps like Shell or Exxon. Some of the people on the other side of the table have been extremely able. Some have just been thugs, with the power of the state behind them. I was often playing poker against them holding not much more than a nine high. And yet, I've never failed to land a deal I didn't want to do, on terms the Board then signed off on.
So yes, I can look at a negotiating situation, assess what people want, what people need, what people are trying on as nice-to-haves. In my view, the UK position with the EU has been extremely poorly handled, from the start of Cameron's renegotiation position to date. There is more to achieve, if we have the political will. We do not have that will under May/Robbins.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
And then Con gets smashed to pieces by Jezza. And deservedly so...
Wishful thinking
I think the opposite is true. If the Tories go for one of the leaver legends in their own lunchtime they will be smashed.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
The Gov't is actually very good, it's just poor at selling itself.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
The Gov't is actually very good, it's just poor at selling itself.
If May rebuffs the leadership challenge and gets her EU deal agreed in parliament she will stand at the next general election and probably deservedly so.
And then Con gets smashed to pieces by Jezza. And deservedly so...
Wishful thinking
I think the opposite is true. If the Tories go for one of the leaver legends in their own lunchtime they will be smashed.
At this point Con are probably done for whoever leads them. They've blown the trust of Leaver's who they lied to in 2017 and the concept of Brexit just pisses off most Remainers.
Whatever happens with Brexit and whoever leads them into the next election it's hard to see any other outcome than Con defeat and Corbyn in Downing St.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
They are doing a very bad job selling the deal, letting the ERG nutters frame a dishonest account of it. Nothing much new there, though, on either side; Theresa May's great weakness is her lack of ability to seize the narrative.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
The Gov't is actually very good, it's just poor at selling itself.
Agreed.
I would argue that they are at best OK and don't seem to think through the consequences of some decisions. The FOBT climbdown is a prime example of that.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
They are doing a very bad job selling the deal, letting the ERG nutters frame a dishonest account of it. Nothing much new there, though, on either side; Theresa May's great weakness is her lack of ability to seize the narrative.
Well duh! That's how she blew a 20% opinion poll lead in 4 weeks.
Nice lady but politically a complete waste of space.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
They are doing a very bad job selling the deal, letting the ERG nutters frame a dishonest account of it. Nothing much new there, though, on either side; Theresa May's great weakness is her lack of ability to seize the narrative.
Now there's a thread header which would be very long - 'Which of her weaknesses is May's greatest weakness?'
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
They are doing a very bad job selling the deal, letting the ERG nutters frame a dishonest account of it. Nothing much new there, though, on either side; Theresa May's great weakness is her lack of ability to seize the narrative.
Someone needs to wake Hammond up to sell it, this deal is his wet dream quite frankly.
So once the "they haven't resigned shock" headlines dissipate, is it better or worse for May that she has senior members of the cabinet resolutely working to oppose her deal? I know is that Major preferred the bastards in the tent, but are things different now?
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
The Gov't is actually very good, it's just poor at selling itself.
Agreed.
I would argue that they are at best OK and don't seem to think through the consequences of some decisions. The FOBT climbdown is a prime example of that.
Yes, a definite mis-step. Good on Crouch for resigning over that. Hopefully she is back soon.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Not true. Rejoining would mean paying for the CAP, joining the CFP and allowing unrestricted immigration - in return for which our politicians would be allowed to grandstand at EU summits.
That is unlikely to look like a good deal to the country for a long time.
Rejoiners would have to convince people that Europe as a country was an ideal worth making sacrifices for.
On the other hand, if there's no deal and a massive recession, then the argument for rejoining is rather easier.
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
Maybe - a little bit.
To be honest, I can see May getting away with this. The deal will pass and the collective sense of relief and euphoria will propel the Conservatives to a GE victory early next year.
They will then have to start dealing with some of the real problems in this country which I alluded to earlier and about which their performance has been sub-optimal in my view.
Your last paragraph is true whoever is in government. There is no prospect I can see of getting back to good government anytime soon, given the state of the two main parties and indeed the smaller parties.
I would be quite happy, with in general terms, parties having majorities of such they can do little. Most politicians' actions are at best benign but more generally superficially thought through and harmful. The current make up of the HoC with respect to Brexit is an unfortunate outlier in that something must be done.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
They are doing a very bad job selling the deal, letting the ERG nutters frame a dishonest account of it. Nothing much new there, though, on either side; Theresa May's great weakness is her lack of ability to seize the narrative.
Someone needs to wake Hammond up to sell it, this deal is his wet dream quite frankly.
Apparently he's been having late night conference calls with Big Business and multi-national corporations to try and get them to save the deal...
If only he put the same efforts into reaching out to small businesses... But under this government the self-employed are looked down on as the dregs and they can go swivel...
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
Then it would highlight that this deal isn’t the future relationship and would bring into question all their claims about money, laws and borders.
Anecdote alert - I never hear Brexit mentioned in real life, yet yesterday in the office everyone was talking about it. There was a hint of panic.
That WILL help the government. It's a sign that ordinary people don't want any more shocks or uncertainty.
Likewise where I volunteer earlier in week. Lot of anger at the mess and confusion. Want this sorted and DO NOT want No Deal and all the worry associated with that.
The purists will spend the next few months saying we are vassal state or whatever, but out in the UK profonde, no one cares. Voters want a deal.
I am listening. I believe you that we can reopen negotiations. I don't know why you regard me thinking it would not be easy as disbelieving that point. Are you telling me that your negotiations are always easy?
You seem to be searching for something to disagree about and are outright pretending I have said something I haven't as you are still acting like I said we cannot reopen things (which, no matter what kind of expert you are on negotiation, is just plain incorrect, it is there in quoted black and white) - I'm not the one saying we cannot try to reopen this. Just that assuming certainty of success when we do is reckless. If Labour and the Tories want to go in and try that's fine, just don't have them tell me they will definitely gain what they want and there is no risk.
Do you think our politicians will definitely obtain a better deal very easily? I'm surprised you have such confidence in PM Corbyn or PM Tory as yet unknown.
I have 25 years experience negotiating oil and gas deals in 70-odd countries on every continent.
It's involved often facing state oil companies or mega-corps like Shell or Exxon. Some of the people on the other side of the table have been extremely able. Some have just been thugs, with the power of the state behind them. I was often playing poker against them holding not much more than a nine high. And yet, I've never failed to land a deal I didn't want to do, on terms the Board then signed off on.
So yes, I can look at a negotiating situation, assess what people want, what people need, what people are trying on as nice-to-haves. In my view, the UK position with the EU has been extremely poorly handled, from the start of Cameron's renegotiation position to date. There is more to achieve, if we have the political will. We do not have that will under May/Robbins.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.
I don't think anyone's saying it's the be all and end all, but having experience with the arbitrary restrictions, time-wasting and sheer destructive box-ticking idiocy of a developed country's visa process (not any more, I have permanent residency now, but there's always a risk it will change and I get a bit nervous about pension rights etc) it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.
The media correspondent at BuzzFeed news reckons that, contrary to suggestions on here a couple of times, Daily Mail print circulation is down since Greig took over:
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
They are doing a very bad job selling the deal, letting the ERG nutters frame a dishonest account of it. Nothing much new there, though, on either side; Theresa May's great weakness is her lack of ability to seize the narrative.
Someone needs to wake Hammond up to sell it, this deal is his wet dream quite frankly.
Apparently he's been having late night conference calls with Big Business and multi-national corporations to try and get them to save the deal...
If only he put the same efforts into reaching out to small businesses... But under this government the self-employed are looked down on as the dregs and they can go swivel...
If only he'd put the same effort into telling the EU their deal wouldn't fly....
Anecdote alert - I never hear Brexit mentioned in real life, yet yesterday in the office everyone was talking about it. There was a hint of panic.
That WILL help the government. It's a sign that ordinary people don't want any more shocks or uncertainty.
Likewise where I volunteer earlier in week. Lot of anger at the mess and confusion. Want this sorted and DO NOT want No Deal and all the worry associated with that.
The purists will spend the next few months saying we are vassal state or whatever, but out in the UK profonde, no one cares. Voters want a deal.
However, and I fundamentally don't disagree, as that is my anecdotal experience, too, a large part of this is weariness, and fear of no deal. People want Brexit over and consigned to the past. They don't like it when it is explained this is, potentially, the end of Stage 1.
Campbell Bannerman on Sky saying the letters are in and while TM is a very decent hard working person but the deal is a disgrace and we need a leader to take the country into a no deal exit.
At last someone has confirmed ERG are determined to collapse our economy
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
Of course it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
Independence is a rather complicated concept, especially in the modern world where few, if any, countries are truly independent.
A person's wage packet is a very simple and direct concept, especially when it is reduced or removed.
Hence to most individuals the latter matters much more than the former. As I recall this played a part in the Scottish Indy referendum.
BTW, your last line is overwrought stupidity.
So you'd happily give up independence for a few quid because it's "complicated".
Question: do the names of those who have sent in a letter get revealed once we get to 48?
I suspect there are a number of fellow travellers who don't want to be seen to have been part of the process of defenstrating May, much as they might want her gone.....
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.
I don't think anyone's saying it's the be all and end all, but having experience with the arbitrary restrictions, time-wasting and sheer destructive box-ticking idiocy of a developed country's visa process (not any more, I have permanent residency now, but there's always a risk it will change and I get a bit nervous about pension rights etc) it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.
I think nearly half of the Remain vote was from people strongly anti-immigration, but sufficiently worried by the economy to vote reluctantly to stay in. Obviously it's the other half who have gone marching, but if I'm right then May's deal is a compromise fit for public opinion.
Campbell Bannerman on Sky saying the letters are in and while TM is a very decent hard working person but the deal is a disgrace and we need a leader to take the country into a no deal exit.
At last someone has confirmed ERG are determined to collapse our economy
If the ERG are willingly driving us to a 'no deal', then Brexit is offically dead. Bring on a new referendum.
I do wonder if Gove is pivoting to that? Saying that now, remaining is better than what Brexit can give.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
Of course it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
Independence is a rather complicated concept, especially in the modern world where few, if any, countries are truly independent.
A person's wage packet is a very simple and direct concept, especially when it is reduced or removed.
Hence to most individuals the latter matters much more than the former. As I recall this played a part in the Scottish Indy referendum.
BTW, your last line is overwrought stupidity.
So you'd happily give up independence for a few quid because it's "complicated".
At least you're honest I suppose.
Don't put words into my mouth. I'm talking about the effect a no-deal could well have on many people, and the way it will be much more directly harmful than the rather esoteric consequences of EU membership.
Campbell Bannerman on Sky saying the letters are in and while TM is a very decent hard working person but the deal is a disgrace and we need a leader to take the country into a no deal exit.
At last someone has confirmed ERG are determined to collapse our economy
It has been obvious for some time. The only surprise is that it has taken so long to sink in.
The media correspondent at BuzzFeed news reckons that, contrary to suggestions on here a couple of times, Daily Mail print circulation is down since Greig took over:
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
As much abuse as Dacre used to get he was a formidable editor because he was in touch with his readership.
I can't see Greig lasting more than a year or so to be honest...
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.
I don't think anyone's saying it's the be all and end all, but having experience with the arbitrary restrictions, time-wasting and sheer destructive box-ticking idiocy of a developed country's visa process (not any more, I have permanent residency now, but there's always a risk it will change and I get a bit nervous about pension rights etc) it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.
I think nearly half of the Remain vote was from people strongly anti-immigration, but sufficiently worried by the economy to vote reluctantly to stay in. Obviously it's the other half who have gone marching, but if I'm right then May's deal is a compromise fit for public opinion.
Comments
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1063375062764535808
You seem to be searching for something to disagree about and are outright pretending I have said something I haven't as you are still acting like I said we cannot reopen things (which, no matter what kind of expert you are on negotiation, is just plain incorrect, it is there in quoted black and white) - I'm not the one saying we cannot try to reopen this. Just that assuming certainty of success when we do is reckless. If Labour and the Tories want to go in and try that's fine, just don't have them tell me they will definitely gain what they want and there is no risk.
Do you think our politicians will definitely obtain a better deal very easily? I'm surprised you have such confidence in PM Corbyn or PM Tory as yet unknown.
https://twitter.com/GoodbyeWaves/status/1063381138629160961
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
To be honest, I can see May getting away with this. The deal will pass and the collective sense of relief and euphoria will propel the Conservatives to a GE victory early next year.
They will then have to start dealing with some of the real problems in this country which I alluded to earlier and about which their performance has been sub-optimal in my view.
But surely the Tories would need to try to draw a line under things, and self inflicted though many of her troubles are, also surely it would be well worth standing down once this phase is done? Yes public service is meant to be a burden and not a cool job for policy wonks, and yes they volunteer for it, but who would want to stay on after this? I get seeing it through to the bitter end, but beyond?
I suspect you will always prefer a Conservative Government to a Labour Government and especially in the current circumstances. I'm less convinced.
I would point out the one thing of which we can be certain is the current circumstances won't last forever.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
A person's wage packet is a very simple and direct concept, especially when it is reduced or removed.
Hence to most individuals the latter matters much more than the former. As I recall this played a part in the Scottish Indy referendum.
BTW, your last line is overwrought stupidity.
Selmayr is quite open about the fact that nothing less than the destruction of the UK will do and that's what the May/Robbins "agreement" is set up to do.
Britain Elects
On the UK government's draft Brexit agreement:
Support: 27%
Oppose: 49%
via @Survation, 15 Nov
It's involved often facing state oil companies or mega-corps like Shell or Exxon. Some of the people on the other side of the table have been extremely able. Some have just been thugs, with the power of the state behind them. I was often playing poker against them holding not much more than a nine high. And yet, I've never failed to land a deal I didn't want to do, on terms the Board then signed off on.
So yes, I can look at a negotiating situation, assess what people want, what people need, what people are trying on as nice-to-haves. In my view, the UK position with the EU has been extremely poorly handled, from the start of Cameron's renegotiation position to date. There is more to achieve, if we have the political will. We do not have that will under May/Robbins.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Whatever happens with Brexit and whoever leads them into the next election it's hard to see any other outcome than Con defeat and Corbyn in Downing St.
And deservedly so...
Nice lady but politically a complete waste of space.
That is unlikely to look like a good deal to the country for a long time.
Rejoiners would have to convince people that Europe as a country was an ideal worth making sacrifices for.
On the other hand, if there's no deal and a massive recession, then the argument for rejoining is rather easier.
That WILL help the government. It's a sign that ordinary people don't want any more shocks or uncertainty.
If only he put the same efforts into reaching out to small businesses... But under this government the self-employed are looked down on as the dregs and they can go swivel...
The purists will spend the next few months saying we are vassal state or whatever, but out in the UK profonde, no one cares. Voters want a deal.
Bring on the 2nd vote!
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1063364109725564928
It's down YoY too.
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
People want Brexit over and consigned to the past.
They don't like it when it is explained this is, potentially, the end of Stage 1.
At last someone has confirmed ERG are determined to collapse our economy
At least you're honest I suppose.
I suspect there are a number of fellow travellers who don't want to be seen to have been part of the process of defenstrating May, much as they might want her gone.....
Mrs Bun the Baker's Wife
Master Bun the Baker's Son
Miss Bun the Baker's Daughter
I do wonder if Gove is pivoting to that? Saying that now, remaining is better than what Brexit can give.
I can't see Greig lasting more than a year or so to be honest...