The only argument she has got is that ‘no deal is terrible’ therefore you have to sign up to this deal, there is no alternative.
Not only is that not true, but it severely limits her ability to convince others.
So what do you think the alternaitve is?
There are at least three.
1) Barnier is open to further talks, use the mechanism to extend A50 and continue negotiations 2) Run a referendum with no deal, the deal and no Brexit.
Or
3) Replace the troublesome unloved bespoke backstop agreement with simple re-entry. This solves almost all problems with the deal.
I prefer 2) then 3). But to say there is no alternative is incorrect.
1 is already dead. See Merkel and the swedes yesterday
Barnier explicitly did not rule it out at his press conference. I take Merkel's comments as an attempt to be helpful. If push came to shove, I expect that Barnier would restart talks. The optics of refusing talks are not good.
Yes, that's right. The EU would prefer that:
1. We forget the whole thing - but they recognise that's unlikely. 2. We accept the deal. 3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
This deal has to be put to a vote in the HoC. If they vote it down - more fools them - then Britain crashes out without a deal, unless May or her replacement is either able to get a vote through for a cancellation of Article 50 (assuming the EU will agree) or another referendum.
But if we crash out without a deal - when a deal, a broadly reasonable one given the parameters which Britain itself imposed, was available - then every single MP who voted to make that happen will deserve the undying contempt of the British electorate, who will be the ones who suffer.
The ERG are the Militant tendency of the Tory party, stupid, ideological without being intelligent, self-interested, destructive and utterly careless of the well-being of others. As is everyone else who goes along with them.
Gove is one of the more pragmatic leavers and I suspect he knows that there is no chance of negotiating a deal that remotely resembles what the leave campaigns implied we would get. I think he is therefore trying to avoid the Brexit Sec job without actively damaging Mrs May.
3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
What more will the EU give us that changes anyone's mind on the deal ?!
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.
No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
Immediately after the referendum, we had moans from the Remainers that we were paranoid, because we weren't over-joyed by our victory. Cheer up, you've won, they said..
The Leavers' fear was always that the EU and the Euro-fanatics would dissemble, time-waste, prevaricate (add your odd description) and generally hope to wear down the negotiators to maintain the status quo as long as possible, then claim we'd all changed our minds. The weariness has been achieved.
All very predictable. The EU is bureaucratic and never in a hurry, but acutely aware that the UK leaving will destabilise it.
There was no UK ready-made plan because Cameron prevented the CS from having one prepared, even in outline. The EU was never in a hurry to negotiate, and transition periods will always be time-wasting procedures. Mrs May's first priority was to keep the Tory party intact in the short-term. Labour's first priority was to gain power. The so-called will of the people was well down the list, if even on it.
Time now to move on to the final stages. A deal which basically guarantees more delay. Deadlock Parliament (which looks likely) and in desperation, reluctantly decide on another referendum to 'decide' the issue, hoping enough of the 'fed-up' will switch to secure a narrow victory. Celebrate a final decision and vow never to allow another referendum again. Hope the outrage will gradually dissipate.
This is what some of us feared all along. You didn't have to be Nostradamus. At least being cynical to start with means you're never going to be disappointed.
Tosh. Hard Leavers always wanted to be disappointed, since there was no way that their prospectus (such as it was) could survive contact with the real world.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
The ERG are the Militant tendency of the Tory party, stupid, ideological without being intelligent, self-interested, destructive and utterly careless of the well-being of others. As is everyone else who goes along with them.
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.
No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
Barnier does not want his CV to end with "....and fucked up Brexit so it ended with No Deal".
But May has show no resolve to be that person to renegotiate it. She will clearly not countenance it until the HoC has voted down her blessed/wretched deal. And somebody with that diminished position is not the person to be heading the UK's final final endgame negotiations. Because they know she will NEVER No Deal Brexit.
You need your crazy Mad Dog at the helm for that......
This deal has to be put to a vote in the HoC. If they vote it down - more fools them - then Britain crashes out without a deal, unless May or her replacement is either able to get a vote through for a cancellation of Article 50 (assuming the EU will agree) or another referendum.
But if we crash out without a deal - when a deal, a broadly reasonable one given the parameters which Britain itself imposed, was available - then every single MP who voted to make that happen will deserve the undying contempt of the British electorate, who will be the ones who suffer.
The ERG are the Militant tendency of the Tory party, stupid, ideological without being intelligent, self-interested, destructive and utterly careless of the well-being of others. As is everyone else who goes along with them.
The ERG are only a small number of the total voting against. Tory remainers and literally every other MP it seems bar Lloyd and a handful of others maybe
But it must be voted on. Right or wrong decision they must not escape being accountable for voting it down, good or bad.
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
Not completely since it might mean minor changes are possibly only so labour could not substantively change as they claim.
But he has massively undermined the argument since if he thinks it can be changed why shouldn't they try.
That report is one reason I'm sure he'll quit - he's revealed he doesn't support the draft, not merely that he is not happy with parts of it, so his position is untenable.
Fortunately I don't let being wrong a lot slow me down. I share that trait with May and Corbyn.
One of your posting (and I guess life) talents is that you accept and acknowledge the views of others, you don't allow your ego to rise up in defence of its position. I guess that probably makes you a genuinely nice guy.
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.
No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
Barnier does not want his CV to end with "....and fucked up Brexit so it ended with No Deal".
But May has show no resolve to be that person to renegotiate it. She will clearly not countenance it until the HoC has voted down her blessed/wretched deal. And somebody with that diminished position is not the person to be heading the UK's final final endgame negotiations. Because they know she will NEVER No Deal Brexit.
You need your crazy Mad Dog at the helm for that......
3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
What more will the EU give us that changes anyone's mind on the deal ?!
Changes to the backstop. That is the key trust issue for many brexiteers. If the exiting of the backstop can be put more in our control (but probably short of unilateral) and the ends of the swimming pool levelled a bit, then I think that could persuade enough that it is not a trap to a permanent CU. And beef up our ability to strike trade deals during transition.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
Remainers are already assuming we are in a second referendum and arguing as such - rather than debating the draft agreement.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
We had proof yesterday that May made a mistake not keeping Nicky Morgan and Stephen Crabb in government. If her Comms team can get them in front of the microphones as much as possible it would do the government a world of good.
3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
What more will the EU give us that changes anyone's mind on the deal ?!
Nick is inadvertently setting himself up to be required to oppose a future labour governments deal, since they will need to do more than cosmetically tweak the deal to credibly back such a thing.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
The best part is, none of these people furiously phoning will have read the bloody deal !
The ERG are the Militant tendency of the Tory party, stupid, ideological without being intelligent, self-interested, destructive and utterly careless of the well-being of others. As is everyone else who goes along with them.
Too kind
They are all too pleased with themselves and recklessly dismissive of any complications and concerns. They remind me of the XXX Corps officers in WW2, jolly-joshing with one another over tea breaks whilst the airborne troops were fighting for their lives.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
Remainers are already assuming we are in a second referendum and arguing as such - rather than debating the draft agreement.
Which is one reason the deal will fail. Remainers are willing to risk everything to retain remain. It's not just no deal supporting headbangers.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
Yes - I initially suspected this was the comms policy to let them vent and then the dominate with the pro-deal push. But the vacuum of moderate pragmatic voices is worrying now. Gove staying is key. Need to roll out the voices now.
We narrowly voted to leave. The deal see us leave narrowly. Most of us should be able to live with it.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
Also, as a country we should back May's deal. It's the only deal in town, even though it's obviously inferior to remaining in the EU.
The default to this deal is a hard Brexit. I wish the default was the status-quo (remaining in the EU) but sadly it isn't.
Crash out isn't the only alternative, nobody except maybe JRM wants that. We don't have to settle for May's deal, very few want that. There is a majority of MPs wanting to stay in the EU, even if their leaders don't. Also the polls show movement in the country towards staying.
A few factory closures should speed up that movement though to get to the hard core Jeremy Kyle would have to be put on a three day week
3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
What more will the EU give us that changes anyone's mind on the deal ?!
Changes to the backstop. That is the key trust issue for many brexiteers. If the exiting of the backstop can be put more in our control (but probably short of unilateral) and the ends of the swimming pool levelled a bit, then I think that could persuade enough that it is not a trap to a permanent CU. And beef up our ability to strike trade deals during transition.
Given their comments I would think they would say your suggestions don't go far enough.
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
Not completely since it might mean minor changes are possibly only so labour could not substantively change as they claim.
But he has massively undermined the argument since if he thinks it can be changed why shouldn't they try.
That report is one reason I'm sure he'll quit - he's revealed he doesn't support the draft, not merely that he is not happy with parts of it, so his position is untenable.
Fortunately I don't let being wrong a lot slow me down. I share that trait with May and Corbyn.
One of your posting (and I guess life) talents is that you accept and acknowledge the views of others, you don't allow your ego to rise up in defence of its position. I guess that probably makes you a genuinely nice guy.
I have observed in the past that very intelligent people have difficulty reaching a decision because they are too tied up with thinking through all possibilities and permutations when there are too many unknowns for there to be a solution. Some times you just have to go with your gut and make your decision work.
Gove is such a person, who having considered all the options has reached a decision to do nothing.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
Yes - I initially suspected this was the comms policy to let them vent and then the dominate with the pro-deal push. But the vacuum of moderate pragmatic voices is worrying now. Gove staying is key. Need to roll out the voices now.
We narrowly voted to leave. The deal see us leave narrowly. Most of us should be able to live with it.
Except Hotel California Brexit is no Leave.
That is where ERG members see their purpose - in suporting the 52%, for a deal that actually delivers the Referendum result. May's shit sandwich buffet has no finality - and so does not deliver.
95% of the deal is there. 5% is what crashes it - and makes the other 95% pointless padding.
3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
What more will the EU give us that changes anyone's mind on the deal ?!
Changes to the backstop. That is the key trust issue for many brexiteers. If the exiting of the backstop can be put more in our control (but probably short of unilateral) and the ends of the swimming pool levelled a bit, then I think that could persuade enough that it is not a trap to a permanent CU. And beef up our ability to strike trade deals during transition.
Given their comments I would think they would say your suggestions don't go far enough.
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
Not completely since it might mean minor changes are possibly only so labour could not substantively change as they claim.
But he has massively undermined the argument since if he thinks it can be changed why shouldn't they try.
That report is one reason I'm sure he'll quit - he's revealed he doesn't support the draft, not merely that he is not happy with parts of it, so his position is untenable.
Fortunately I don't let being wrong a lot slow me down. I share that trait with May and Corbyn.
One of your posting (and I guess life) talents is that you accept and acknowledge the views of others, you don't allow your ego to rise up in defence of its position. I guess that probably makes you a genuinely nice guy.
You are very kind. For the record I will have to confess to the occasional lapse!
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
We had proof yesterday that May made a mistake not keeping Nicky Morgan and Stephen Crabb in government. If her Comms team can get them in front of the microphones as much as possible it would do the government a world of good.
Wouldn't be suprised if she pivots her cabinet to those people (and Amber Rudd etc). The ERGers aren't going to be coming back onboard no matter what.
The EC unlike many in the UK value the manufacturing base here. If the UK decides to be a Singapore services only style country then it wishes to have time to smoothly transfer the factories left here to the rest of the EC. We will probably go to Ireland and have already had several contacts with them. We would leave some capability in the UK but there will be job losses.
Our situation is the same as many other companies. We are reluctant leavers. Leave the UK that is
Immediately after the referendum, we had moans from the Remainers that we were paranoid, because we weren't over-joyed by our victory. Cheer up, you've won, they said..
The Leavers' fear was always that the EU and the Euro-fanatics would dissemble, time-waste, prevaricate (add your odd description) and generally hope to wear down the negotiators to maintain the status quo as long as possible, then claim we'd all changed our minds. The weariness has been achieved.
All very predictable. The EU is bureaucratic and never in a hurry, but acutely aware that the UK leaving will destabilise it.
There was no UK ready-made plan because Cameron prevented the CS from having one prepared, even in outline. The EU was never in a hurry to negotiate, and transition periods will always be time-wasting procedures. Mrs May's first priority was to keep the Tory party intact in the short-term. Labour's first priority was to gain power. The so-called will of the people was well down the list, if even on it.
Time now to move on to the final stages. A deal which basically guarantees more delay. Deadlock Parliament (which looks likely) and in desperation, reluctantly decide on another referendum to 'decide' the issue, hoping enough of the 'fed-up' will switch to secure a narrow victory. Celebrate a final decision and vow never to allow another referendum again. Hope the outrage will gradually dissipate.
This is what some of us feared all along. You didn't have to be Nostradamus. At least being cynical to start with means you're never going to be disappointed.
Leave's problem is that the mandate was weak and the leavers could never unite behind a single course of action, either before the vote or after. Everything else pretty much stems from that.
You didn't have to be Nostradamus to predict that putting a disparate coalition of 52% together to win a vote was the easy bit, just blame everything on the EU. The hard bit was always going to be delivering something afterwards.
In a last ditch effort to stop this all whips have been ordered to return to SW1 now. They will be on the phones trying to coerce the scribes to withdraw their letters. This is where the book of dirty secrets comes in handy and there are lots of those.
One of May's problems is that it's a secret ballot. Or, at least, it's supposed to be ... I wouldn't put it past her lackeys to stand over the ballot box Mugabe-style.
(Oh and Gove not resigning. He's an unprincipled turd but we all know that.)
One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?
Not yet.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.
Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.
No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
Barnier does not want his CV to end with "....and fucked up Brexit so it ended with No Deal".
But May has show no resolve to be that person to renegotiate it. She will clearly not countenance it until the HoC has voted down her blessed/wretched deal. And somebody with that diminished position is not the person to be heading the UK's final final endgame negotiations. Because they know she will NEVER No Deal Brexit.
You need your crazy Mad Dog at the helm for that......
Spot on. While May is PM, the EU knows that the UK Government will eventually settle for whatever bones they throw us. The ability to get such gruel past parliament is not a limiting factor either, because the EU must realise that May on defeat of the EU's offer May would contrive a parliamentary outcome that avoided an exit in March on WTO terms, probably leading to their preferred outcome of a second referendum.
The EU will be keeping their fingers crossed that May survives this crisis. So the choice of replacement PM resolves around a simple question now: Who would the EU least like to be in post as UK PM in the remaining 4 months?
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
This is obviously all about becoming leader of the Tory party. A very smart move by Gove. If he'd left he'd have faced competion from any number in the headbangers group. As it is he's put himself at the very front of the Leaver Loyalists. His wife is very cunning. He shouldn't be underestimated.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
Ok so Give has come out of hiding. Any sign of Hunt or Javid or Hammond? If the Cabinet are supposedly backing the deal and supporting the PM you'd imagine the big office holders would be seen and heard.
Watching the media interviews this morning they seem to have fallen into the trap of inviting hard remainers and leavers to discuss brexit and the script remains the same.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
Yes - I initially suspected this was the comms policy to let them vent and then the dominate with the pro-deal push. But the vacuum of moderate pragmatic voices is worrying now. Gove staying is key. Need to roll out the voices now.
We narrowly voted to leave. The deal see us leave narrowly. Most of us should be able to live with it.
Except Hotel California Brexit is no Leave.
That is where ERG members see their purpose - in suporting the 52%, for a deal that actually delivers the Referendum result. May's shit sandwich buffet has no finality - and so does not deliver.
95% of the deal is there. 5% is what crashes it - and makes the other 95% pointless padding.
May's deal will end free movement and see us leave the CAP and CFP while retaining the close economic relationship much of the economy has grown to rely on. It's the pragmatic compromise that I didn't think was possible - made possible because May's obduracy has forced the EU to split their cherished four freedoms.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
The EC unlike many in the UK value the manufacturing base here. If the UK decides to be a Singapore services only style country then it wishes to have time to smoothly transfer the factories left here to the rest of the EC. We will probably go to Ireland and have already had several contacts with them. We would leave some capability in the UK but there will be job losses.
Our situation is the same as many other companies. We are reluctant leavers. Leave the UK that is
Id suggest most of the UK manufacturing base is already foreign owned or influenced. If you are a supplier to automotive or aerospace you are already accepting standards from Munich or Paris. It's pointless MPs making a big thing of controlling standards when most of them are going to be decided at head offices outside the UK in any event. The "win" perhaps for May was enabling financial services to continue from the UK but that was probably more of a refelction on the EU needing London.
Mark Stone says there is some room for firming up the political statement which could see a rich trade deal which will address some of the issues worrying some mps
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
"Father of six" does seem superfluous but "old Etonian" and "state educated" rightly points out which of these opposed parties represents the Establishment elite.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
FFS some people on here are soooooooo naive and floppy.
Of COURSE the EU are going to say that doh. They're hardly now going to say, oh well if you don't like it let's see what we can do.
Blimey o' Reilly.
We need people who know how to bargain. Boot out the politicians and idiot civil servants like Robbins and get some people from Business in there who know how you strike deals.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
If the Trade agreement had been negotiated in parallel with the Withdrawal agreement the problem of a backstop would not arise.
However, the EU insisted on negotiating the Withdrawal agreement first because it strenthens their negotiating position to do so with an agreement such as the one we now have.
So from where we are now we should implement a managed WTO Brexit and then negotiate a trade deal from a position of strength rather than weakness.
Is it in the national interest for May to step down now and let another Conservative take over to try and improve the deal with the EU?
Rather than for her to limp on as a lame duck?
That depends completely on if another Conservative would successfully improve the deal or not. That is far from clear, so is it in the national interest to take that gamble? Labour's position, for instance, is that it would be in the national interest to take that gamble (merely substituting a tory leader for a labour one). I'm more gutless so say it is not.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
"Father of six" does seem superfluous but "old Etonian" and "state educated" rightly points out which of these opposed parties represents the Establishment elite.
Yep. However much one disapproves of the absurd faux-toff, or indeed of the Catholic church, digs that look uncomfortably close to faith-based insult should be avoided. It's not fair to call out Labour on anti-semitic tropes or Tories on islamophobic ones, and meanwhile let avuncular centrists take the piss out of the Moggs for sprogging. At least, not above the line.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
Just go with May's deal. It delivers an exit from the EU without trashing the economy.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise given: the (narrow) vote to Leave, the lack of a significant shift in opinion since, that any further vote is likely to be narrowly won, and that No Deal would seriously damage the economy and deepen the divisions in the country.
May's deal is the only option which will allow the country to put this whole sorry episode behind us.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
FFS some people on here are soooooooo naive and floppy.
Of COURSE the EU are going to say that doh. They're hardly now going to say, oh well if you don't like it let's see what we can do.
Blimey o' Reilly.
We need people who know how to bargain. Boot out the politicians and idiot civil servants like Robbins and get some people from Business in there who know how you strike deals.
"Tosh. Hard Leavers always wanted to be disappointed, since there was no way that their prospectus (such as it was) could survive contact with the real world."
I fear you're mistaking my views. If it comes to Remaining, I'll not lose any sleep. It's more to do with honesty in politics. Yesterday, I described TM as a goldish among sharks. EU meetings are akin to a primary school yard - you need to choose your gang, preferably one that has most influence. I suspect British politics is very similar.
If we reverse-ferret, we will lose influence. The EU will press the throttle a little more towards full integration. It's still a way ahead but it is coming - it is a logical development.
Personally, I don't agree, but I've no problem with those who support it - but honesty would be nice.
It will come to a head in February next year as Councils set Budgets for the 2019-20 financial year and for a number of Councils it's elections in May as well.
Oddly enough, the closure of local services may be far more keenly felt than any "crash" out of the EU.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
FFS some people on here are soooooooo naive and floppy.
Of COURSE the EU are going to say that doh. They're hardly now going to say, oh well if you don't like it let's see what we can do.
Blimey o' Reilly.
We need people who know how to bargain. Boot out the politicians and idiot civil servants like Robbins and get some people from Business in there who know how you strike deals.
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
"Father of six" does seem superfluous but "old Etonian" and "state educated" rightly points out which of these opposed parties represents the Establishment elite.
Yep. However much one disapproves of the absurd faux-toff, or indeed of the Catholic church, digs that look uncomfortably close to faith-based insult should be avoided. It's not fair to call out Labour on anti-semitic tropes or Tories on islamophobic ones, and meanwhile let avuncular centrists take the piss out of the Moggs for sprogging. At least, not above the line.
The lack of a reshuffle to fill the two vacant positions in the cabinet is probably indicative of something or other.
Her thinking might be that keeping them unfilled until after a leadership confidence vote is resolved will allow her to make all sorts of offers she cannot deliver on, in the hope that some more suckers will vote to keep her in place. When they find out they have been had, she'll be immune from challenge for another 12 months.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Even if the ERG get the VNOC on Monday, they will lose. If they do not get the 48 letters in by CoB Monday then they are humiliated. Meanwhile, Theresa May is getting the support of the Daily Mail...
So in fact the Tories may face the vote only a few votes down, so it could pass, if the DUP and enough Labour/SNP votes come over.
Therefore there is a scenario where the PM gets this deal done. It's tight but not negligible risk and that is what this difficult, stubborn but very determined woman is trying to do. I do not support her, would never vote for her, but can't help admiring her bloody mindedness in the face of the shower of upper class twit sh*tes that is today's new, even more, Nasty Party. (c. T May).
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
rcs1000 made a good post about that on the previous thread, arguing that May had promised business there would be a deal in order to stop an exodus of jobs and investment. Any extensive no-deal planning would scare business away.
Immediately after the referendum, we had moans from the Remainers that we were paranoid, because we weren't over-joyed by our victory. Cheer up, you've won, they said..
The Leavers' fear was always that the EU and the Euro-fanatics would dissemble, time-waste, prevaricate (add your odd description) and generally hope to wear down the negotiators to maintain the status quo as long as possible, then claim we'd all changed our minds. The weariness has been achieved.
All very predictable. The EU is bureaucratic and never in a hurry, but acutely aware that the UK leaving will destabilise it.
There was no UK ready-made plan because Cameron prevented the CS from having one prepared, even in outline. The EU was never in a hurry to negotiate, and transition periods will always be time-wasting procedures. Mrs May's first priority was to keep the Tory party intact in the short-term. Labour's first priority was to gain power. The so-called will of the people was well down the list, if even on it.
Time now to move on to the final stages. A deal which basically guarantees more delay. Deadlock Parliament (which looks likely) and in desperation, reluctantly decide on another referendum to 'decide' the issue, hoping enough of the 'fed-up' will switch to secure a narrow victory. Celebrate a final decision and vow never to allow another referendum again. Hope the outrage will gradually dissipate.
This is what some of us feared all along. You didn't have to be Nostradamus. At least being cynical to start with means you're never going to be disappointed.
Leave's problem is that the mandate was weak and the leavers could never unite behind a single course of action, either before the vote or after. Everything else pretty much stems from that.
You didn't have to be Nostradamus to predict that putting a disparate coalition of 52% together to win a vote was the easy bit, just blame everything on the EU. The hard bit was always going to be delivering something afterwards.
It's incredible that leavers, and May, appear not to have understood this blindingly obvious fact. THey have made no effort to find a national consensus on an acceptable method of leaving. In 2016 many remainers would have been happy to accept some form of SM/CU soft Brexit but May kowtowed the ERG and ploughed ahead with unachievable red lines and empty rhetoric. In doing so they have come close to destroying the whole project, the coup de grace cannot be long delayed IMO.
The lack of a reshuffle to fill the two vacant positions in the cabinet is probably indicative of something or other.
Her thinking might be that keeping them unfilled until after a leadership confidence vote is resolved will allow her to make all sorts of offers she cannot deliver on, in the hope that some more suckers will vote to keep her in place. When they find out they have been had, she'll be immune from challenge for another 12 months.
Or alternatively, it's best to let the situation settle down wrt resignations. ISTR we've had a case with Labour recently where their reshuffle became near-continuous as people resigned - it was a hilarious farce.
The civil servants can run the departments for a few days until May knows who is available for a job.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
You don't have to proactively opt to do nothing; you just omit to do anything.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
It will come to a head in February next year as Councils set Budgets for the 2019-20 financial year and for a number of Councils it's elections in May as well.
Oddly enough, the closure of local services may be far more keenly felt than any "crash" out of the EU.
I don't think many people are truly aware of how much of the discretionary part of local councils' budgets are being taken up with social care and similar issues.
One of the frustrations is the government clearly knows there is a problem, hence the social care levy and an exemption (I think limited to one year) to raise council tax by 3% (not including the levy of course) without a referendum, which seems like a way to kick the can rather than take a deeper look at things.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Quite right.
It's pure May spin. Sickening shite.
As is this nonsense that it's 'this deal or no deal.' Garbage. Utter bilge.
Apologies if posted before, but this analysis from the Times yesterday sets out the possible parliamentary arithmetic. It's better than the simple Beeb version.
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
A fair shorthand for those who were described by George Orwell as "the striped-trousered ones who rule" of whom Rees Mogg is the archetypal example.
Comments
1. We forget the whole thing - but they recognise that's unlikely.
2. We accept the deal.
3. We talk about how to keep the basic trading show on the road after a deal has been rejected. If that includes a tweak which would clearly make the deal work, then maybe.
The idea that they will simply refuse to discuss anything in case 3 is not realistic.
But if we crash out without a deal - when a deal, a broadly reasonable one given the parameters which Britain itself imposed, was available - then every single MP who voted to make that happen will deserve the undying contempt of the British electorate, who will be the ones who suffer.
The ERG are the Militant tendency of the Tory party, stupid, ideological without being intelligent, self-interested, destructive and utterly careless of the well-being of others. As is everyone else who goes along with them.
'I am right' 'No I am right'
It is tedious and maybe the broadcasters need to put more effort into finding neutral observers
But May has show no resolve to be that person to renegotiate it. She will clearly not countenance it until the HoC has voted down her blessed/wretched deal. And somebody with that diminished position is not the person to be heading the UK's final final endgame negotiations. Because they know she will NEVER No Deal Brexit.
You need your crazy Mad Dog at the helm for that......
But it must be voted on. Right or wrong decision they must not escape being accountable for voting it down, good or bad.
He will want Chancellor/Foreign Secretary as his price.
Remainers are already assuming we are in a second referendum and arguing as such - rather than debating the draft agreement.
Meanwhile, in the real world:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/11/councils-unsustainably-increasing-spend-social-care-millions-pounds1?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
We narrowly voted to leave. The deal see us leave narrowly. Most of us should be able to live with it.
Gove is such a person, who having considered all the options has reached a decision to do nothing.
That is where ERG members see their purpose - in suporting the 52%, for a deal that actually delivers the Referendum result. May's shit sandwich buffet has no finality - and so does not deliver.
95% of the deal is there. 5% is what crashes it - and makes the other 95% pointless padding.
Correctly so since we have already voted to Leave, Remain was eliminated in the semi finals.
Will the EU concede them? They should, but.....
ERG would shout betrayal and vote against, Lab would shout GE and vote against, SNP would shout where's our deeper EU relationship and vote against.
But also he is an excellent Secretary of State
Our situation is the same as many other companies. We are reluctant leavers. Leave the UK that is
The 1% that donates to Wikipedia. So there get me and my elitist swagger.
You didn't have to be Nostradamus to predict that putting a disparate coalition of 52% together to win a vote was the easy bit, just blame everything on the EU. The hard bit was always going to be delivering something afterwards.
In a last ditch effort to stop this all whips have been ordered to return to SW1 now. They will be on the phones trying to coerce the scribes to withdraw their letters. This is where the book of dirty secrets comes in handy and there are lots of those.
One of May's problems is that it's a secret ballot. Or, at least, it's supposed to be ... I wouldn't put it past her lackeys to stand over the ballot box Mugabe-style.
(Oh and Gove not resigning. He's an unprincipled turd but we all know that.)
I just do not see how this works - imagine negotiations halt while this vote is held and we get a result similar to before - leave
No time to do anything .....
Which of course suits May "Brexit means Brexit" very well.
The EU will be keeping their fingers crossed that May survives this crisis. So the choice of replacement PM resolves around a simple question now: Who would the EU least like to be in post as UK PM in the remaining 4 months?
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
It is the end of the WDA process
Accept your victory.
Rather than for her to limp on as a lame duck?
Paris. It's pointless MPs making a big thing of controlling standards when most of them are going to be decided at head offices outside the UK in any event. The "win" perhaps for May was enabling financial services to continue from the UK but that was probably more of a refelction on the EU needing London.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
"Father of six" does seem superfluous but "old Etonian" and "state educated" rightly points out which of these opposed parties represents the Establishment elite.
Of COURSE the EU are going to say that doh. They're hardly now going to say, oh well if you don't like it let's see what we can do.
Blimey o' Reilly.
We need people who know how to bargain. Boot out the politicians and idiot civil servants like Robbins and get some people from Business in there who know how you strike deals.
Tsk.
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
However, the EU insisted on negotiating the Withdrawal agreement first because it strenthens their negotiating position to do so with an agreement such as the one we now have.
So from where we are now we should implement a managed WTO Brexit and then negotiate a trade deal from a position of strength rather than weakness.
The actual direction of legislation is decided by the executive.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise given: the (narrow) vote to Leave, the lack of a significant shift in opinion since, that any further vote is likely to be narrowly won, and that No Deal would seriously damage the economy and deepen the divisions in the country.
May's deal is the only option which will allow the country to put this whole sorry episode behind us.
"Tosh. Hard Leavers always wanted to be disappointed, since there was no way that their prospectus (such as it was) could survive contact with the real world."
I fear you're mistaking my views. If it comes to Remaining, I'll not lose any sleep. It's more to do with honesty in politics. Yesterday, I described TM as a goldish among sharks. EU meetings are akin to a primary school yard - you need to choose your gang, preferably one that has most influence. I suspect British politics is very similar.
If we reverse-ferret, we will lose influence. The EU will press the throttle a little more towards full integration. It's still a way ahead but it is coming - it is a logical development.
Personally, I don't agree, but I've no problem with those who support it - but honesty would be nice.
Oddly enough, the closure of local services may be far more keenly felt than any "crash" out of the EU.
So in fact the Tories may face the vote only a few votes down, so it could pass, if the DUP and enough Labour/SNP votes come over.
Therefore there is a scenario where the PM gets this deal done. It's tight but not negligible risk and that is what this difficult, stubborn but very determined woman is trying to do. I do not support her, would never vote for her, but can't help admiring her bloody mindedness in the face of the shower of upper class twit sh*tes that is today's new, even more, Nasty Party. (c. T May).
So Gove will have to back May in the leadership fight - until he doesn't.
The civil servants can run the departments for a few days until May knows who is available for a job.
Cock-up beats conspiracy (nearly) every time.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article183956658/Innenminister-Seehofer-tritt-am-19-Januar-als-CSU-Chef-zurueck.html
this will make coalition politics in Germany more interesting
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
One of the frustrations is the government clearly knows there is a problem, hence the social care levy and an exemption (I think limited to one year) to raise council tax by 3% (not including the levy of course) without a referendum, which seems like a way to kick the can rather than take a deeper look at things.
Quite right.
It's pure May spin. Sickening shite.
As is this nonsense that it's 'this deal or no deal.' Garbage. Utter bilge.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/factions-that-hold-the-key-to-acceptance-9h2sq6bkn?