Does he have an explanation - besides I assume deriding the press - for these various incidents which many suggest looks like he has a drink problem?
Didn't he call Orban a dictator to his face once? Although in fairness he probably gets a lot of praise from people for that, though I doubt they'd like such blunt speaking from such a diplomatic post from someone else.
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.
The Norway outside any customs arrangement ? That Norway ?
Does he have an explanation - besides I assume deriding the press - for these various incidents which many suggest looks like he has a drink problem?
Didn't he call Orban a dictator to his face once? Although in fairness he probably gets a lot of praise from people for that, though I doubt they'd like such blunt speaking from such a diplomatic post from someone else.
Well when he practically toppled over at that EU summit a few months ago and had to be held up by, they tried to claim he had a bad back, despite no signs of it earlier in the day, only post lunch....It seems to me they try to cover this up as badly as FDR need of the use of a wheelchair due to polio.
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
It feels like they must be there or thereabouts, otherwise they would have shut up about it, but also if it was clearly way over they would be screaming blue murder at Brady.
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.
The Norway outside any customs arrangement ? That Norway ?
Yes. The EU would have bitten our hand off. Still in their pocket regulatory wise. Outside the customs union, but lacking the powers to become a Singapore off their coast. A customs agreement between Ireland and the uk is only as difficult as both sides want it to be.
Seems to think that May's not quite as certain to win a VONC as many people are saying. This is pretty much my position too- I'd think she's odds on to win, but once the question becomes not "go or stay" but "go or be immovable for a year", it might change the perspective for quite a few MPs, especially ones who still have dark memories of GE 2017.
I think what would work in May's favour is that the VONC is seen so much as an ERG project, and a lot of Tories have a very low opinion of them. Plus with Brexit dominating the day-to-day right now so much, the vote would be seen a lot in terms of being about May's deal, rather than "what about if she digs her heels in and stays until 2020?"
Pragmatically, even if May really has gotten the best deal possible, maybe it'd be useful to hand the job of seeing that deal through to somebody more skilled in party management and more capable of persuading the public to back it, and I'm wondering if there's a candidate that would be acceptible to both sides who could be coronated (Javid? Gove?). I'm not convinced the ERG would be either willing to go down that road or capable or bringing enough of the rest of the party with them, though.
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.
The red lines were unsustainable. Foolish. Starting from an EEA / efta position, maybe customs union maybe not and negotiating around that would have been more productive. Saying we didn’t want foreign courts holding jurisdiction and not wanting free movement, meant that we were always working against the grain.
Seems to think that May's not quite as certain to win a VONC as many people are saying. This is pretty much my position too- I'd think she's odds on to win, but once the question becomes not "go or stay" but "go or be immovable for a year", it might change the perspective for quite a few MPs, especially ones who still have dark memories of GE 2017.
I think what would work in May's favour is that the VONC is seen so much as an ERG project, and a lot of Tories have a very low opinion of them. Plus with Brexit dominating the day-to-day right now so much, the vote would be seen a lot in terms of being about May's deal, rather than "what about if she digs her heels in and stays until 2020?"
Pragmatically, even if May really has gotten the best deal possible, maybe it'd be useful to hand the job of seeing that deal through to somebody more skilled in party management and more capable of persuading the public to back it, and I'm wondering if there's a candidate that would be acceptible to both sides who could be coronated (Javid? Gove?). I'm not convinced the ERG would be either willing to go down that road or capable or bringing enough of the rest of the party with them, though.
If I was May, I would be somewhat concerned. Despite it seems the Tories struggling to get the 48 letters, they have a history of when they go for it, they go big. We only have to look how we got May in the first place, it fight dirty and if I was May I wouldn't trust any of these people like Gove who say they support her.
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
Does he have an explanation - besides I assume deriding the press - for these various incidents which many suggest looks like he has a drink problem?
Didn't he call Orban a dictator to his face once? Although in fairness he probably gets a lot of praise from people for that, though I doubt they'd like such blunt speaking from such a diplomatic post from someone else.
Some extraordinary stories emerging. One lady packed her four young children into the car with the flames above her and either side of her, with the kids asking if they'd be okay. She was convinced they were all going to die, but she got away alive.
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.
The Norway outside any customs arrangement ? That Norway ?
Yes. The EU would have bitten our hand off. Still in their pocket regulatory wise. Outside the customs union, but lacking the powers to become a Singapore off their coast. A customs agreement between Ireland and the uk is only as difficult as both sides want it to be.
It requires delineation. If there is a customs border between Northern Ireland and Ireland then it requires infrastructure and checks in some form. The only way to avoid that is a political solution that avoids the creation of a customs and regulatory border.
It's inherently intractable and pretending there's an easy solution if only people were sensible ignores some profound political realities about the UK.
This sounds like a cabinet that has decided "reopen negotiations" is their price for staying.
Though re-open negotiations is not one of the three options left.
Tell that to Labour and half the Tory party (I'm still not convinces totally no negotiation is possible, I just don't think anything significant is likely and it opens up more risks so is not worth it).
The LD position on these things is generally more honest.
They might agree if there was a change of government to A50 extension, but I don't think just change of leader would do the trick.
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
Wrong.
Contrary to Remainers; glee, the backstop is not a desirable position for the EU or the UK. I still suspect it won't be used.
Yes, this is a key point. The EU most definitely don't want it - they would see it as the dreaded cherry-picking.
I can't quite understand why the Govt. aren't shouting this from the rooftops.
Do you still not get it? Have you not noticed just about every statement leads off with "...Northern....Ireland..."?
It is all about NI. ALL ABOUT NI (better for you?).
Although as has been well rehearsed on here thousands of times that no one wants the backstop, the EU has to propose it, and May has to accept it because (pay attention here):
The UK government can not be in a position whereby one viable option constitutionally or politically lfrom that position eads to a hard border in Northern Ireland.
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
May be totally wrong here, but I think May must be safe.
Unless her whips have totally bungled it. The rebels need to get well beyond 48 to topple her and the whips thought she could get her deal through parliament recently, which must mean less than 30-40 rebels.
Does he have an explanation - besides I assume deriding the press - for these various incidents which many suggest looks like he has a drink problem?
Didn't he call Orban a dictator to his face once? Although in fairness he probably gets a lot of praise from people for that, though I doubt they'd like such blunt speaking from such a diplomatic post from someone else.
Well when he practically toppled over at that EU summit a few months ago and had to be held up by, they tried to claim he had a bad back, despite no signs of it earlier in the day, only post lunch....It seems to me they try to cover this up as badly as FDR need of the use of a wheelchair due to polio.
A sad reminder of Charlie's last days leading the LibDems
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
May be totally wrong here, but I think May must be safe.
Unless her whips have totally bungled it. The rebels need to get well beyond 48 to topple her and the whips thought she could get her deal through parliament recently, which must mean less than 30-40 rebels.
Rumour has it that Brady had 47 and then TMay sent in the last one....
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.
The red lines were unsustainable. Foolish. Starting from an EEA / efta position, maybe customs union maybe not and negotiating around that would have been more productive. Saying we didn’t want foreign courts holding jurisdiction and not wanting free movement, meant that we were always working against the grain.
We wanted what they were unwilling to give us.
I don't know. The EU seem to have given ground on the indivisible nature of the four freedoms. May has achieved concessions I didn't think were possible.
The number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top draw is a scientific constant at 47.9, or 47.9999999 if you must be pedantic about it Francis. If another letter is added one, will be removed in its place. Think of the theory of relativity – each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Have they not heard of this thing called 'email'?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
Thatcher faced the prospect of defeat in the second round had she not withdrawn.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
Good question. John Major set himself a target of two-thirds in 1995, which would have been 215. He got 218.
I would love to kmow why they think iy disrespects the result. I struggle to believe regulatory differences in goods between GB and NI was as the forefront of people's minds when voting.
This is just modern British negativity screwing the country.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
I think if there are more than 100 votes against her it would be very hard to carry on. A PM supported by less than 1/3 of the Commons would have zero credibility both at home and abroad.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
Theresa won't go through letters or VONC.
She'll go because it will become apparent (probably already is, hence the chief whip refusing to meet her MP's cause he doesn't want to hear what they are saying) that the deal can't pass Pariament.
The Cabinet will have to step in the stop Theresa from presenting it to Parliament (and thus losing) so they'll have to tell her they've lost confidence in her.
That could be why Gove and co are staying in the Cabinet...
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Have they not heard of this thing called 'email'?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
So what do they do if they cant get there?
That may be so, but the speed of this is decided by Sir G Brady.
As far as I am aware, there are no regulations on the speed or frequency at which he has to check his mail, on the method or speed that he has to ask for confirmation that existing correspondents do not wish to withdraw their letter. Is this by email, phone, letter or eyeball to eyeball?
Depending on his wishes (and I don't know where he stands on the issue of Brexit or May), his loyalties and impishness, he has the power to determine the illusion of momentum, should he wish to do so.
(...) I'm wondering if there's a candidate that would be acceptible to both sides who could be coronated (Javid? Gove?). I'm not convinced the ERG would be either willing to go down that road or capable or bringing enough of the rest of the party with them, though.
You do know that both Javid and Gove are members of the ERG? The other five they've got in the current cabinet are Gauke, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Lewis.
It's precisely what I would have expected. But if we get all remainery for a moment - do the public truly know what they are voting/polling on? And if I don't like what they say can I try again later?
Being more serious, the public being against what they have heard is not irrelevant, but it is up to MPs to make the decision and unlike the 2016 vote at present there is not a public referendum which adds significantly more weight to general public opinion on a complex topic, it is not a case of ignoring a public mandate even though, it would seem, much consideration needs to be given on what the public want here. MPs should be advised to do what they think best in the national interest, or kick it back to the public if they feel they cannot decide what is in the national interest, or think they need to know for sure what the public think in an actual vote rather than just a poll.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
Theresa won't go through letters or VONC.
She'll go because it will become apparent (probably already is, hence the chief whip refusing to meet her MP's cause he doesn't want to hear what they are saying) that the deal can't pass Pariament.
The Cabinet will have to step in the stop Theresa from presenting it to Parliament (and this losing) so they'll have to tell her they've lost confidence in her.
That could be why Gove and co are staying in the Cabinet...
Am I right in thinking that the resignation vacancies have not yet been filled?
One thing we don't, perhaps except for M Smithson, give May credit for is her ruthless determination to continue. She and her lackeys are furiously working on the rebels at this moment. Every dirty trick known to man is being employed, including the frame up of the baby-eating bishop of Bath and Wells. Lots of MPs would rather not have their dirty little secrets aired in public by a vicious counter-operation.
What's so shameful about this is that there is fury in the country with May's bodged deal. If the Tories don't get a grip and get her out there will be a bloodbath at the polls.
Brady in the East Midlands today. Good job the ERG haven't figured the new fangled electronic messaging.
Even if Jake Rees's merry men could work email, would an email suffice? Or does it have to be an actual letter, delivered by hand to GB Old Lady's door?
Seems to think that May's not quite as certain to win a VONC as many people are saying. This is pretty much my position too- I'd think she's odds on to win, but once the question becomes not "go or stay" but "go or be immovable for a year", it might change the perspective for quite a few MPs, especially ones who still have dark memories of GE 2017.
I think what would work in May's favour is that the VONC is seen so much as an ERG project, and a lot of Tories have a very low opinion of them. Plus with Brexit dominating the day-to-day right now so much, the vote would be seen a lot in terms of being about May's deal, rather than "what about if she digs her heels in and stays until 2020?"
Pragmatically, even if May really has gotten the best deal possible, maybe it'd be useful to hand the job of seeing that deal through to somebody more skilled in party management and more capable of persuading the public to back it, and I'm wondering if there's a candidate that would be acceptible to both sides who could be coronated (Javid? Gove?). I'm not convinced the ERG would be either willing to go down that road or capable or bringing enough of the rest of the party with them, though.
If I was May, I would be somewhat concerned. Despite it seems the Tories struggling to get the 48 letters, they have a history of when they go for it, they go big. We only have to look how we got May in the first place, it fight dirty and if I was May I wouldn't trust any of these people like Gove who say they support her.
There will be those putting the 48 letters in. Then in addition many more who have been critical of her in public without feeling able to admit to putting letters in. Add in many on the government payroll vote who can't yet admit to being critical of her because if they do so they would be out of a job and they didn't see the need to risk going out on a limb. Then add those of a Remain inclination who aspire either to ministerial office or a promotion and see their best chance of that coming about with a change of PM. And finally add in those in marginal seats who don't see her as an electoral asset and fear that with the loss of DUP support they could be prematurely out of any job if she loses a vote of confidence and they are stuck with her in a general election..
Yes there is a bit of overlap, but the point is that if you are a Conservative MP then there is a wide constituency who could find reasons for voting against here, so the 48+ signatories would only be the tip of an iceberg.
Let's suppose the 48 have been handed in. It's pretty clear that TM will not actually lose. What do we think is the minimum number of votes that she needs in order to remain in office (Maggie didn't lose, but felt there was so much opposition she's couldn't stay)?
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
Theresa won't go through letters or VONC.
She'll go because it will become apparent (probably already is, hence the chief whip refusing to meet her MP's cause he doesn't want to hear what they are saying) that the deal can't pass Pariament.
The Cabinet will have to step in the stop Theresa from presenting it to Parliament (and this losing) so they'll have to tell her they've lost confidence in her.
That could be why Gove and co are staying in the Cabinet...
I'm curious, why do you think it is important not to present the plan to parliament? It failing there only adds weight to the chorus of information that May should go. And since it is parliament's decision should they not be made to formally reject the PM's deal rather than assume it, no matter how obvious?
I am very much against our MPs getting to dodge making a call on this deal by not even having to vote on it. There are good reasons to oppose (and not good reasons aplenty too), people are not shy about listing them. Well, they should put it on the record, not have May make it easy by not even asking them.
(...) I'm wondering if there's a candidate that would be acceptible to both sides who could be coronated (Javid? Gove?). I'm not convinced the ERG would be either willing to go down that road or capable or bringing enough of the rest of the party with them, though.
You do know that both Javid and Gove are members of the ERG? The other five they've got in the current cabinet are Gauke, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Lewis.
Indeed. Javid is a Leaver, more explicitly so since Dave's exit stage left.
If they had any sense (ha haha hahahahahaha hahahahahahahahaha) they would appoint a Remainer but then that Remainer would of course fail to implement the ERG agenda. Obvs. It is a Catch-22 - and one the ERG have not quite digested - the only person who would have a shout at getting something past the HoC would have an agenda that they vehemently disagreed with.
A bog-standard ERG-er would instantly alienate 78.6% of the Commons.
Their best prospect is this quite anodyne, grey lass called Theresa, but for some reason, having delivered just about the only Brexit possible for the country, they don't seem to like what she has produced.
Chief whip cancels all briefings with MPs today on the Brexit deal.
In the bunker and in denial...
Or perhaps under siege and waiting to see if the alliance of forces outside the walls have the provisions for a long sieve or the weapons to break down the walls.
Those emerging will be, politically, put to the sword, so why not prolong it?
However, I fear they have been holding out forlorn hopes that General Ummuna will arrive with a relieving force.
Brady in the East Midlands today. Good job the ERG haven't figured the new fangled electronic messaging.
Even if Jake Rees's merry men could work email, would an email suffice? Or does it have to be an actual letter, delivered by hand to GB Old Lady's door?
So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?
Satan, same as last week
I thought Satan had resigned from cabinet, leaving only war, famine, pestilence and death.
Say what you want about Death's politics, he is extremely competent which has to be regarded as a positive at this time. I understand as a doctor that is probably difficult though.
Steve Baker live on Sky saying if leadership contest the ERG would get behind one candidate and that candidate must have cabinet experience and would not be a brexiteer that has not resigned over the deal.
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Have they not heard of this thing called 'email'?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
So what do they do if they cant get there?
That may be so, but the speed of this is decided by Sir G Brady.
As far as I am aware, there are no regulations on the speed or frequency at which he has to check his mail, on the method or speed that he has to ask for confirmation that existing correspondents do not wish to withdraw their letter. Is this by email, phone, letter or eyeball to eyeball?
Depending on his wishes (and I don't know where he stands on the issue of Brexit or May), his loyalties and impishness, he has the power to determine the illusion of momentum, should he wish to do so.
Is there a rule about Graham Brady Old Lady actually owning and managing a letterbox? It might be that his secretary handles his post, and chucks away all the dull-looking official stuff from boring colleagues.
Comments
Didn't he call Orban a dictator to his face once? Although in fairness he probably gets a lot of praise from people for that, though I doubt they'd like such blunt speaking from such a diplomatic post from someone else.
At this rate, if Brady gets another 33 letters the count will go negative.
They may well do as 48 is hardly a big number BUT it's not exactly seeming to be a huge swell of numbers powering them past that low bar.
Told them they either shut the f up and get behind any deal she can do with the EU, or she will legislate for a 2nd vote.
It is well gone noon on the day after the HoC meltdown and Mogg on the steps of Parliament.
And yet, somehow, the ultras don't appear to have the numbers.
Seems to think that May's not quite as certain to win a VONC as many people are saying. This is pretty much my position too- I'd think she's odds on to win, but once the question becomes not "go or stay" but "go or be immovable for a year", it might change the perspective for quite a few MPs, especially ones who still have dark memories of GE 2017.
I think what would work in May's favour is that the VONC is seen so much as an ERG project, and a lot of Tories have a very low opinion of them. Plus with Brexit dominating the day-to-day right now so much, the vote would be seen a lot in terms of being about May's deal, rather than "what about if she digs her heels in and stays until 2020?"
Pragmatically, even if May really has gotten the best deal possible, maybe it'd be useful to hand the job of seeing that deal through to somebody more skilled in party management and more capable of persuading the public to back it, and I'm wondering if there's a candidate that would be acceptible to both sides who could be coronated (Javid? Gove?). I'm not convinced the ERG would be either willing to go down that road or capable or bringing enough of the rest of the party with them, though.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/nov/16/bbc-women-complain-andrew-neil-tweet-observer-journalist-carole-cadwalladr
The red lines were unsustainable. Foolish. Starting from an EEA / efta position, maybe customs union maybe not and negotiating around that would have been more productive. Saying we didn’t want foreign courts holding jurisdiction and not wanting free movement, meant that we were always working against the grain.
We wanted what they were unwilling to give us.
For fecks sake - put him out to pasture.
Some extraordinary stories emerging. One lady packed her four young children into the car with the flames above her and either side of her, with the kids asking if they'd be okay. She was convinced they were all going to die, but she got away alive.
Imagine that!
It's inherently intractable and pretending there's an easy solution if only people were sensible ignores some profound political realities about the UK.
It is all about NI. ALL ABOUT NI (better for you?).
Although as has been well rehearsed on here thousands of times that no one wants the backstop, the EU has to propose it, and May has to accept it because (pay attention here):
The UK government can not be in a position whereby one viable option constitutionally or politically lfrom that position eads to a hard border in Northern Ireland.
Is that clear enough for you?
Unless her whips have totally bungled it.
The rebels need to get well beyond 48 to topple her and the whips thought she could get her deal through parliament recently, which must mean less than 30-40 rebels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk6kvVGPURA
Mildly surprised May is still in place.
Verified account
@tomhfh
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ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week.
Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Conversely, let's suppose they didn't get to 48, AND she eventually gets the deal through. Do we foresee her then resigning (why should she, and is it in character?), or fighting on to lead the party in the next election (with all those MPs on record rubbishing her)?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
So what do they do if they cant get there?
Good job the ERG haven't figured the new fangled electronic messaging.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/16/voters-want-may-deal-gone-now/
Bolton West and Atherton MP becomes the 21st to publicly declare they have submitted a letter of no confidence in the PM..."
https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447
This is just modern British negativity screwing the country.
She'll go because it will become apparent (probably already is, hence the chief whip refusing to meet her MP's cause he doesn't want to hear what they are saying) that the deal can't pass Pariament.
The Cabinet will have to step in the stop Theresa from presenting it to Parliament (and thus losing) so they'll have to tell her they've lost confidence in her.
That could be why Gove and co are staying in the Cabinet...
As far as I am aware, there are no regulations on the speed or frequency at which he has to check his mail, on the method or speed that he has to ask for confirmation that existing correspondents do not wish to withdraw their letter. Is this by email, phone, letter or eyeball to eyeball?
Depending on his wishes (and I don't know where he stands on the issue of Brexit or May), his loyalties and impishness, he has the power to determine the illusion of momentum, should he wish to do so.
The other five they've got in the current cabinet are Gauke, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Lewis.
Being more serious, the public being against what they have heard is not irrelevant, but it is up to MPs to make the decision and unlike the 2016 vote at present there is not a public referendum which adds significantly more weight to general public opinion on a complex topic, it is not a case of ignoring a public mandate even though, it would seem, much consideration needs to be given on what the public want here. MPs should be advised to do what they think best in the national interest, or kick it back to the public if they feel they cannot decide what is in the national interest, or think they need to know for sure what the public think in an actual vote rather than just a poll.
If so, that tells you much...
What's so shameful about this is that there is fury in the country with May's bodged deal. If the Tories don't get a grip and get her out there will be a bloodbath at the polls.
Yes there is a bit of overlap, but the point is that if you are a Conservative MP then there is a wide constituency who could find reasons for voting against here, so the 48+ signatories would only be the tip of an iceberg.
is he... pissed off?
I am very much against our MPs getting to dodge making a call on this deal by not even having to vote on it. There are good reasons to oppose (and not good reasons aplenty too), people are not shy about listing them. Well, they should put it on the record, not have May make it easy by not even asking them.
If they had any sense (ha haha hahahahahaha hahahahahahahahaha) they would appoint a Remainer but then that Remainer would of course fail to implement the ERG agenda. Obvs. It is a Catch-22 - and one the ERG have not quite digested - the only person who would have a shout at getting something past the HoC would have an agenda that they vehemently disagreed with.
A bog-standard ERG-er would instantly alienate 78.6% of the Commons.
Their best prospect is this quite anodyne, grey lass called Theresa, but for some reason, having delivered just about the only Brexit possible for the country, they don't seem to like what she has produced.
Edit: welcome by the way.
Jacob's cream crackers!
Those emerging will be, politically, put to the sword, so why not prolong it?
However, I fear they have been holding out forlorn hopes that General Ummuna will arrive with a relieving force.
Sounds like a fun household