Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Plenty of remainers and brexiters have come round to the view it is a reasonable compromise. I happen to think you will be closer to the general view, I think people hate compromises and the behaviour of MPs demonstrates that, but there will be more support for this than you would suppose.
Immediately after the referendum, we had moans from the Remainers that we were paranoid, because we weren't over-joyed by our victory. Cheer up, you've won, they said..
The Leavers' fear was always that the EU and the Euro-fanatics would dissemble, time-waste, prevaricate (add your odd description) and generally hope to wear down the negotiators to maintain the status quo as long as possible, then claim we'd all changed our minds. The weariness has been achieved.
All very predictable. The EU is bureaucratic and never in a hurry, but acutely aware that the UK leaving will destabilise it.
There was no UK ready-made plan because Cameron prevented the CS from having one prepared, even in outline. The EU was never in a hurry to negotiate, and transition periods will always be time-wasting procedures. Mrs May's first priority was to keep the Tory party intact in the short-term. Labour's first priority was to gain power. The so-called will of the people was well down the list, if even on it.
Time now to move on to the final stages. A deal which basically guarantees more delay. Deadlock Parliament (which looks likely) and in desperation, reluctantly decide on another referendum to 'decide' the issue, hoping enough of the 'fed-up' will switch to secure a narrow victory. Celebrate a final decision and vow never to allow another referendum again. Hope the outrage will gradually dissipate.
This is what some of us feared all along. You didn't have to be Nostradamus. At least being cynical to start with means you're never going to be disappointed.
Leave's problem is that the mandate was weak and the leavers could never unite behind a single course of action, either before the vote or after. Everything else pretty much stems from that.
You didn't have to be Nostradamus to predict that putting a disparate coalition of 52% together to win a vote was the easy bit, just blame everything on the EU. The hard bit was always going to be delivering something afterwards.
It's incredible that leavers, and May, appear not to have understood this blindingly obvious fact. THey have made no effort to find a national consensus on an acceptable method of leaving. In 2016 many remainers would have been happy to accept some form of SM/CU soft Brexit but May kowtowed the ERG and ploughed ahead with unachievable red lines and empty rhetoric. In doing so they have come close to destroying the whole project, the coup de grace cannot be long delayed IMO.
You can't build a consensus on Brexit because there's no consensus to be had. As we're seeing with the loony, traitorous Brexiteers in the Conservative Party. Bunch of winnets, the lot of 'em.
The lack of a reshuffle to fill the two vacant positions in the cabinet is probably indicative of something or other.
Maybe hard to recruit good people if they're not sure whether you're going to survive the weekend.
'Served in Theresa May's cabinet' is a bit like getting the Iron Cross 2nd class in WWI. It's probably not going to do much for your job prospects either.
This is simulataneously fascinating and horrifying. I have to say I'm very disappointed in the Tories flailing around like nubs. More rapier, less handbags ladies.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
Ok so Give has come out of hiding. Any sign of Hunt or Javid or Hammond? If the Cabinet are supposedly backing the deal and supporting the PM you'd imagine the big office holders would be seen and heard.
Give is a most inappropriate typo in the case of the self serving, over-ambitious wee shit.
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
"Father of six" does seem superfluous but "old Etonian" and "state educated" rightly points out which of these opposed parties represents the Establishment elite.
Yep. However much one disapproves of the absurd faux-toff, or indeed of the Catholic church, digs that look uncomfortably close to faith-based insult should be avoided. It's not fair to call out Labour on anti-semitic tropes or Tories on islamophobic ones, and meanwhile let avuncular centrists take the piss out of the Moggs for sprogging. At least, not above the line.
Tbf JRM does rather play on the old-toff image and seems to go out of his way to be 'different' to the ordinary mortal. Having six children is relevant in that it reinforces that difference.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Me too and I voted Leave.
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
"The Ulster Farmers Union (UFU), an organisation representing the interests of 11,500 family farms in Northern Ireland, has called on the DUP to support the proposed Brexit deal."
I think a good example of the world outside Westminster
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
rcs1000 made a good post about that on the previous thread, arguing that May had promised business there would be a deal in order to stop an exodus of jobs and investment. Any extensive no-deal planning would scare business away.
Any CEO worth his salt understands contingency planning. By obviously planning for something you make it a) less likely to happen, as you are less likely to accidentally arrive there b) are prepared if you do arrive there.
Sounds like the Sir Humphreys had been pouring poison in her ear again.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Me too and I voted Leave.
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
Sadly she's not that clever.
So which way would you vote if offered this Deal or Remain?
('cos the HoC are not going to vote for a 2nd ref that has No Deal as an option)
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Me too and I voted Leave.
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
Sadly she's not that clever.
It was clearly the plan all along. Don't plan for no deal whatsoever and then come up with something even worse than staying in from the point of view of those who want to leave the EU.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
This is today and is not spin.
It is reporting exactly what Mark Stone said on Sky reporting from Brussels
"You don't have to proactively opt to do nothing; you just omit to do anything.
Cock-up beats conspiracy (nearly) every time."
The CS would automatically prepare for a referendum by preparing position papers for both options UNLESS they were stopped from doing so. Step forward David Cameron. Why? I don't know, but I suspect he feared leaks which could give credence to the Leave option.
Apologies if posted before, but this analysis from the Times yesterday sets out the possible parliamentary arithmetic. It's better than the simple Beeb version.
Thanks. It seems somewhat optimistic on the number of Tory Brexiteers who might swing behind this, but perhaps their definition of who is an ultra differs from mine. It does note they need pretty much everyone who could be considered a swinger to get it through, which sounds tough.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Me too and I voted Leave.
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
Sadly she's not that clever.
So which way would you vote if offered this Deal or Remain?
('cos the HoC are not going to vote for a 2nd ref that has No Deal as an option)
I would abstain.
Remain or remain in all but name. This sums up the whole EU, there really is no escape is there?
Is it in the national interest for May to step down now and let another Conservative take over to try and improve the deal with the EU?
Rather than for her to limp on as a lame duck?
It is certainly not in the Conservatives' interests to have in place a PM who has just survived a confidence vote and cannot be removed despite having lost her working majority in the House of Commons and as such opened up the possibility of losing a vote of no confidence in her government. May is so stubborn that if she lost such a vote, she would not step down and having secured 12 months grace she could not be forced to do so by her party, so there would be no prospect of another Conservative leader regaining the DUP's support in the 14 days available to form a replacement government. May would rather take her chances of winning a general election conducted in the most unfavourable of circumstances.
As to whether that scenario would be in the national interest, it depends on your party political allegiances and your view of Brexit.
Just wondering what work "old Etonian father of six" and "state school educated" are doing in the threader. Why not substitue "man" and "woman" or "Piscean" and "Aquarian"? Or at least go the whole Andrea and call TM "state school educated and childless".
"Father of six" does seem superfluous but "old Etonian" and "state educated" rightly points out which of these opposed parties represents the Establishment elite.
Yep. However much one disapproves of the absurd faux-toff, or indeed of the Catholic church, digs that look uncomfortably close to faith-based insult should be avoided. It's not fair to call out Labour on anti-semitic tropes or Tories on islamophobic ones, and meanwhile let avuncular centrists take the piss out of the Moggs for sprogging. At least, not above the line.
Tbf JRM does rather play on the old-toff image and seems to go out of his way to be 'different' to the ordinary mortal. Having six children is relevant in that it reinforces that difference.
The archaic, wing-collared style and language are indeed hipsterism avant la lettre. I'm not sure anyone has children just for effect, though.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
This is today and is not spin.
It is reporting exactly what Mark Stone said on Sky reporting from Brussels
I cannot help it if you do not like it
It contradicts a direct statement of the guy leading negotiations. It also does not make sense.
What it is, is leaders trying to be helpful to May today. It really isn't helpful. If you try to box the British into a corner, you might not get the response you expect.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
This is today and is not spin.
It is reporting exactly what Mark Stone said on Sky reporting from Brussels
I cannot help it if you do not like it
Er ... in case you didn't know this a journalist's words are not gospel.
Nor is Barnier the omniscient, omnipresent and omnipotent autocratic world leader. He's a Eurocrat and he HAS to say this is the final deal. Of course he does. If he gave even the slightest whiff of anything otherwise the UK would be all over it.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
Frankly, this is nonsense. Nothing is forever. There will never be a 'last word' on our relations with European countries (note: not just 'The EU'). Time doesn't just bear all its sons away. If Brexit: Take One fails, it'll be because people lack patience.
Say the loons are correct and we're to be something between a vassal state or an EU colony. How long do you think that would last if we really put our minds to it? We're the UK, fifthish largest economy in the world, nuclear power, cricket, bulldogs etc. It's not a rerun of the Delian league.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Me too and I voted Leave.
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
Sadly she's not that clever.
WilliamGlenn has been suggesting that has been her masterplan for quite some time. However as you point out she, and probably no one in fact, has the competence to pull that off intentionally.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
I have 25 years of international commercial negotaiting under my belt, with people on the other side who would eat Barnier for breakfast (literally, in one case - if the rumour was to be believed).
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
Apologies if posted before, but this analysis from the Times yesterday sets out the possible parliamentary arithmetic. It's better than the simple Beeb version.
Thanks. It seems somewhat optimistic on the number of Tory Brexiteers who might swing behind this, but perhaps their definition of who is an ultra differs from mine. It does note they need pretty much everyone who could be considered a swinger to get it through, which sounds tough.
"The Ulster Farmers Union (UFU), an organisation representing the interests of 11,500 family farms in Northern Ireland, has called on the DUP to support the proposed Brexit deal."
I think a good example of the world outside Westminster
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Add extreme to remainers and brexiteers to be accurate
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Which points do you think the EU would be amenable to giving ground on?
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise
No they won't.
It's worse than being in the EU. It's neither Brexit nor Remain. An awful half-way house which leaves us hamstrung.
She's managed the brilliant feat of uniting Remainers, Brexiteers and Unionists in opposition.
Yes it seems to be.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Me too and I voted Leave.
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
Sadly she's not that clever.
But, like the REG, you do not speak for all those who voted leave. In the House of Commons, your views are represented by perhaps 50 MPs, 60 at a stretch.
What proportion of the electorate do you think you speak for - and would you be prepared to test that in a second referendum ?
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Which points do you think the EU would be amenable to giving ground on?
My preferred solution would be to replace the hated bespoke backstop with re-entry into the EU.
I think the EU would give ground on that and that deal might pass the HoC, given the relative upsides for Remainers and Leavers alike.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Quite right.
It's pure May spin. Sickening shite.
As is this nonsense that it's 'this deal or no deal.' Garbage. Utter bilge.
How is it TM spin when it is a European journalist reporting from Brussels
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
rcs1000 made a good post about that on the previous thread, arguing that May had promised business there would be a deal in order to stop an exodus of jobs and investment. Any extensive no-deal planning would scare business away.
Any CEO worth his salt understands contingency planning. By obviously planning for something you make it a) less likely to happen, as you are less likely to accidentally arrive there b) are prepared if you do arrive there.
Sounds like the Sir Humphreys had been pouring poison in her ear again.
The main contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit is to move operations out of the UK to an EU27 country.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
I have 25 years of international commercial negotaiting under my belt, with people on the other side who would eat Barnier for breakfast (literally, in one case - if the rumour was to be believed).
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
And what experience do you have of negotiating treaties between sovereign states ?
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Which points do you think the EU would be amenable to giving ground on?
Well since the government didn't bother to prepare for no deal and refused to play hardball with the EU then nothing obviously.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
Just go with May's deal. It delivers an exit from the EU without trashing the economy.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise given: the (narrow) vote to Leave, the lack of a significant shift in opinion since, that any further vote is likely to be narrowly won, and that No Deal would seriously damage the economy and deepen the divisions in the country.
May's deal is the only option which will allow the country to put this whole sorry episode behind us.
I think all of this has been building for 25 if not 60 years because things have been done without consent being asked for, and that’s why it’s so bitter now. The divisions didn’t magically appear in Spring 2016 they’d been there all along beneath the surface and it is a gross failure of our politics in general that that was not recognised. A plague on them all.
However, if the headbangers from ERG to Continuity Remainers get their way it will persist and fester and God knows where we end up. Now May’s deal is not where I want to go and probably not where you want to end up, but it’s a fair reflection to me of a split country. It’s gets us out of the crap I hate, but preserves vast chunks of the economic connections that you are probably ok with. It doesn’t preclude the country taking a breather for a few years and going back or further out from there. If you and I can ageee it’s a reasonable stab at a resolution for now I’d have hoped it spanned a large bloc across the country. We shall see as people get to know it more, though I’m not that hopeful sadly.
Frankly, this is nonsense. Nothing is forever. There will never be a 'last word' on our relations with European countries (note: not just 'The EU'). Time doesn't just bear all its sons away. If Brexit: Take One fails, it'll be because people lack patience.
Say the loons are correct and we're to be something between a vassal state or an EU colony. How long do you think that would last if we really put our minds to it? We're the UK, fifthish largest economy in the world, nuclear power, cricket, bulldogs etc. It's not a rerun of the Delian league.
You raise an interesting point. I do understand the concerns of the more strident leavers here, that if we don't get it right from the start we will be in a very bad place, but it just reminds of of Daniel Hannan's book, where 90% talks about how great this country is and all it has faced and achieved...then essentially concludes we have no chance of overcoming the obstacles before us in the EU.
Now, while I did vote leave because I did not like the direction of the EU, I do get surprised by this attitude of how blooming great we are, and yet simultaneously thinking that we have no chance of overcoming things in our path like, for instance, a sub-optimal deal. Sure they must be worried, not unreasonably, that once it is done a lot of people will not want to reopen it for quite some time, and why indeed should they face the prospect of decades more struggle. But nothing is forever, as you say. It won't be easy to change things if this deal is adopted, it might even take a long time, but to act like we will never have the chance is simply very defeatist.
And yes, this argument could be flipped, as I have myself suggested to those who think the EU's greatness is self evident, and our need to be in it just as much, that clearly we will get back in not that long from now, even if we take a compromise on a deal to leave now, rather than fight tooth and nail and risk all to remain.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
rcs1000 made a good post about that on the previous thread, arguing that May had promised business there would be a deal in order to stop an exodus of jobs and investment. Any extensive no-deal planning would scare business away.
Any CEO worth his salt understands contingency planning. By obviously planning for something you make it a) less likely to happen, as you are less likely to accidentally arrive there b) are prepared if you do arrive there.
Sounds like the Sir Humphreys had been pouring poison in her ear again.
The main contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit is to move operations out of the UK to an EU27 country.
A couple of days back, one of the supermarket chief executives was interviewed on R4, and said that they had done little or no planning for no deal, as they regarded it as futile...
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Which points do you think the EU would be amenable to giving ground on?
My preferred solution would be to replace the hated bespoke backstop with re-entry into the EU.
I think the EU would give ground on that and that might pass the HoC, given the relative upsides for Remainers and Leavers alike.
Creative, but I can't see that one getting past the Commons, even if the EU were willing (which I doubt, because it would take away their sovereignty in deciding whether and on what terms we could become members again).
A couple of days back, one of the supermarket chief executives was interviewed on R4, and said that they had done little or no planning for no deal, as they regarded it as futile...
Yes, in that business there isn't anything much they can do.
JRM has been all mouth and no trousers for a long time but yesterday, finally, he did actually act. Mrs May doesn’t have a monopoly on brains, has produced a dire Brexit that is actually worse than staying in the EU and has fundamentally misunderstood why Leave won. To deliver such an cataclysmic climb down as her Brexit deal, she has sacriced the Gov’s entire domestic policy agenda which is an abdication of good government.
JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
I'm not wrong, because I did not say that the deal could not be reopened or renegotiated. I said it would not be easy to reopen and obtain things from it. More specifically, and I did not say this in that particular post, to obtain substantive things from it.
You may disagree about how easy it would be, but if you are going to stun me with your vast experience of negotiation you might first want to check that I said you what you think I said.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
A couple of days back, one of the supermarket chief executives was interviewed on R4, and said that they had done little or no planning for no deal, as they regarded it as futile...
Yes, in that business there isn't anything much they can do.
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
If big business sneezes the rest of us tend to catch cold. Anyone not shit scared of "a short term hit to the economy" is mad, or worth >20m with excellent diversification, or both (JRM). And if you are taking comfort from "short term" 9/11, and fatal heart attacks, and all sorts of nasties are short term events.
Francois on Sky saying he hopes that over the weekend other letters will go in and they will see on monday as to what happens. I do not use the word often but 'bellend' comes to mind
Francois on Sky saying he hopes that over the weekend other letters will go in and they will see on monday as to what happens. I do not use the word often but 'bellend' comes to mind
He's the one who (ALLEGEDLY) used the nasty language about May... he's a chopsy little fucker.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
Which points do you think the EU would be amenable to giving ground on?
My preferred solution would be to replace the hated bespoke backstop with re-entry into the EU.
I think the EU would give ground on that and that might pass the HoC, given the relative upsides for Remainers and Leavers alike.
Creative, but I can't see that one getting past the Commons, even if the EU were willing (which I doubt, because it would take away their sovereignty in deciding whether and on what terms we could become members again).
Why? I think it would pass the HoC and should be seriously considered.
Remainers (the majority of the HoC) would buy it gladly. The UK would have 3years to negotiate a trade deal and if we fail, we go back in.
Even Leavers have something to gain from this, because - as they say - EU membership is better than permanent Limbo as described by the bespoke backstop.
In extreme scenario, there is a way out trigger for a future hard leave govt, unlike the bespoke backstop they can trigger A50 and take two years to prepare for a Hard Exit.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
This is today and is not spin.
It is reporting exactly what Mark Stone said on Sky reporting from Brussels
I cannot help it if you do not like it
It contradicts a direct statement of the guy leading negotiations. It also does not make sense.
What it is, is leaders trying to be helpful to May today. It really isn't helpful. If you try to box the British into a corner, you might not get the response you expect.
You are in the same pedalo as Rees-Mogg and the loons.
There may be some tweaks possible, but the idea that Corbyn & Starmer (or anyone else) can negotiate anything very different is for the birds.
Starmer can perhaps nudge something more in the EU's direction in return for a nudge elsewhere. But it will be a compromise based on the existing proposals.
As I have repeatedly said, the EU have other pre-occupations.
There is not time for a General Election. The numbers haven't changed radically, so even if Corby wins in terms of most seats, he will be in charge of a possibly minority but certainly weak Government. Labour are barely more united on what they want than the Tories & disgruntled backbenchers will do what disgruntled backbenchers always do when there is a weak Government.
The idea that the EU is going to now wait for all this, and then for Labour to begin a new set of negotiations about Labour unicorns is just beyond ludicrous.
Francois on Sky saying he hopes that over the weekend other letters will go in and they will see on monday as to what happens. I do not use the word often but 'bellend' comes to mind
He's the one who (ALLEGEDLY) used the nasty language about May... he's a chopsy little fucker.
He was challenged on that by Adam Boulton and denied it
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.
Sums up the lot of them.
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.
Id suggest most of the UK manufacturing base is already foreign owned or influenced. If you are a supplier to automotive or aerospace you are already accepting standards from Munich or Paris. It's pointless MPs making a big thing of controlling standards when most of them are going to be decided at head offices outside the UK in any event. The "win" perhaps for May was enabling financial services to continue from the UK but that was probably more of a refelction on the EU needing London.
I'm continously surprised by the number of people who think making our own standards is a great idea. Yeah it might make some sense if we had an internal market the size of China's, but for the UK a manufacturer will almost certainly end up meeting external standards we have little of no influence over.
Whilst this is a poor deal it is better than none at all. Heartily agree with those who have said we will overcome its defects in time. The important thing is to get out. Once we are out, the direction if travel of EU integration will take care of the rest and there will be no return. JRM et al doing Mrs May the power of good amongst the public who recognise a dogged adherence to duty in the face of adversity when they see it. She is stronger at the end of this week than she was at the beginning imho.
A couple of days back, one of the supermarket chief executives was interviewed on R4, and said that they had done little or no planning for no deal, as they regarded it as futile...
Yes, in that business there isn't anything much they can do.
What can most UK based businesses do in reality ?
Depend a lot on the nature of the business, obviously. Financial institutions can get set up subsidiaries in an EU27 country, or beef up existing ones. Same for airlines. Some manufacturers might be able to reduce risk to the supply chain by stockpiling critical components. Some businesses can simply halt investment in the UK and prioritise investment elsewhere. Some manufacturing businesses might be able to plan for moving production elsewhere. Etc etc, each company will be different, but the overriding way of reducing risk is to get out of the UK in some form or another, where possible.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
I have 25 years of international commercial negotaiting under my belt, with people on the other side who would eat Barnier for breakfast (literally, in one case - if the rumour was to be believed).
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
And what experience do you have of negotiating treaties between sovereign states ?
He is unlikely to have dealt with self important dumplings who have sh** for brains and know the value of nothing. More likely means he dealt with real business people who had a brain and knew the value of at least some things.
Tim Montgomerie, former adviser to IDS, and very much ConHome fully endorses TM deal
Nicky Morgan does the same in the Guardian
As does Fraser Nelson in the Daily Telegraph
It's not a "good" deal but given the Carney-inspired wasteland that many people seem to believe will be the product of "No Deal", I can understand why the gullible and the terrified are flocking to endorse it.
No doubt the May apologists will spin this as a triumph for the Prime Minister - really? It's a measure of the ineptitude of the May Government that a deal which would have been ridiculed in 2016 is now seen as our best hope for survival (and by "our" I mean the Conservative Party for the most part).
Nothing of course changes on 30/3/19 - we go into a period of Transition in which, to all intents and purposes, we will be full members of the EU with all the obligations (including the Divorce Bill) and no rights in the decision-making process.
That also includes Freedom of Movement which won't end on 30/3/19 either.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
I'm not wrong, because I did not say that the deal could not be reopened or renegotiated. I said it would not be easy to reopen and obtain things from it. More specifically, and I did not say this in that particular post, to obtain substantive things from it.
You may disagree about how easy it would be, but if you are going to stun me with your vast experience of negotiation you might first want to check that I said you what you think I said.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
What a shower. Difficult to know which of them ought to be more embarrassed to be on the list with the others.
There are a few prominent Brexiteers missing who you might expect to see on that list - Redwood, Cash, Hollobone
Maybe they have put letters in but not made them public or maybe they don't agree with the strategy?
As frustrating as it is for political watchers, I would assume they are the kind who don't regard it as something which should be made public. It is a very strange situation really, as I cannot believe there are not way more than 48 who have no confidence in May, and given this critical point most of those surely have to put letters in, but you get people like Raab quitting over this policy but not putting in a letter apparently. So odd.
Does Brady check his inbox over the weekend? I believe it was said a vote would earliest held on Monday, but it'd be nice, if the number is not reached today, that he could at least update everyone if it is reached on Saturday.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
I have 25 years of international commercial negotaiting under my belt, with people on the other side who would eat Barnier for breakfast (literally, in one case - if the rumour was to be believed).
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
And what experience do you have of negotiating treaties between sovereign states ?
He is unlikely to have dealt with self important dumplings who have sh** for brains and know the value of nothing. More likely means he dealt with real business people who had a brain and knew the value of at least some things.
And were focussed on their particular business, rather than the diverse interests of millions of people, and thousands of industries. The idea that the two are comparable is absurd, but illustrative of the simplistic beliefs of the ultras.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
I'm not wrong, because I did not say that the deal could not be reopened or renegotiated. I said it would not be easy to reopen and obtain things from it. More specifically, and I did not say this in that particular post, to obtain substantive things from it.
You may disagree about how easy it would be, but if you are going to stun me with your vast experience of negotiation you might first want to check that I said you what you think I said.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
Doesn't say it cannot be reopened.
Damn, my ego is acting up.
Keep calm lads
It's this Brexityness - never give up on anything!
On that note, before I go, I haven't heard much reported about the SNP's comment on all this. I assume that's because of course they are all opposed to the deal, but I would be surprised if they did not have some cutting remarks about what is going on.
The ERG are the Militant tendency of the Tory party, stupid, ideological without being intelligent, self-interested, destructive and utterly careless of the well-being of others. As is everyone else who goes along with them.
Too kind
I am not making personal comments about people on here who have no ability (I imagine) to influence what happens in Parliament. But those in Parliament and in our political life who aid and abet the extremists in both parties deserve the greatest possible censure.
** Anecdote alert. **
My largely non-political other half who is probably more euro-sceptic than me commented over breakfast that he didn't really see what the fuss was about over the deal, that it seemed a reasonable compromise and why was everything kicking off. He also expressed muted admiration for May in being so bloody determined about it. Mind you, he is allergic to pinstripes, upper-class twits and pompous arses generally so not perhaps a natural JRM supporter....... He also described Gove as an odious looking toad, though he does have a big beef with DEFRA about the prospect of extra large pylons on the edge of the Lake District National Park.
Mark Stone just confirmed from the EU no further negotiations on the WDA. This is the best they can do.
It is the end of the WDA process
That is NOT what Barnier said this week. I can see the temptation for May supporters to spin this as a take it scenario. But that really isn't true and if it were that would essentially be tantamount to blackmail.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
I'm not wrong, because I did not say that the deal could not be reopened or renegotiated. I said it would not be easy to reopen and obtain things from it. More specifically, and I did not say this in that particular post, to obtain substantive things from it.
You may disagree about how easy it would be, but if you are going to stun me with your vast experience of negotiation you might first want to check that I said you what you think I said.
However, people suggesting it would be easy to reopen negotiations and obtain things would be tantamount to being misleading, recklessly so. It was so when the leave campaign made things sound easy, and it is so now.
Doesn't say it cannot be reopened.
Damn, my ego is acting up.
Tell them you aren't signing. See what happens.
It's interesting you don't want to listen to people with expertise on matters in hand.
Tim Montgomerie, former adviser to IDS, and very much ConHome fully endorses TM deal
Nicky Morgan does the same in the Guardian
As does Fraser Nelson in the Daily Telegraph
It's not a "good" deal but given the Carney-inspired wasteland that many people seem to believe will be the product of "No Deal", I can understand why the gullible and the terrified are flocking to endorse it.
No doubt the May apologists will spin this as a triumph for the Prime Minister - really? It's a measure of the ineptitude of the May Government that a deal which would have been ridiculed in 2016 is now seen as our best hope for survival (and by "our" I mean the Conservative Party for the most part).
Nothing of course changes on 30/3/19 - we go into a period of Transition in which, to all intents and purposes, we will be full members of the EU with all the obligations (including the Divorce Bill) and no rights in the decision-making process.
That also includes Freedom of Movement which won't end on 30/3/19 either.
Of course in the transition period not much will change as we disentangle ourselves. That's kinda the idea of a transition period. Is that really your justification for attacking it, or are you just in autopilot 'Tory=Bad' mode?
Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
They are that crap.
I'm afraid they are.
The other point we all know but which bears repeating is that Cameron made NO contingency whatsoever for a Leave vote. None. I remember chatting to someone on his team 6 months before the vote and he couldn't believe it. And then you realise what an arrogant Etonian Cameron was and you can well believe it.
This is why I think we need to get a delay on Withdrawal. We simply are not ready and this is too important to mess with.
Just go with May's deal. It delivers an exit from the EU without trashing the economy.
I think most Leavers and Remainers will come round to the view that this is a reasonable compromise given: the (narrow) vote to Leave, the lack of a significant shift in opinion since, that any further vote is likely to be narrowly won, and that No Deal would seriously damage the economy and deepen the divisions in the country.
May's deal is the only option which will allow the country to put this whole sorry episode behind us.
I think all of this has been building for 25 if not 60 years because things have been done without consent being asked for, and that’s why it’s so bitter now. The divisions didn’t magically appear in Spring 2016 they’d been there all along beneath the surface and it is a gross failure of our politics in general that that was not recognised. A plague on them all.
However, if the headbangers from ERG to Continuity Remainers get their way it will persist and fester and God knows where we end up. Now May’s deal is not where I want to go and probably not where you want to end up, but it’s a fair reflection to me of a split country. It’s gets us out of the crap I hate, but preserves vast chunks of the economic connections that you are probably ok with. It doesn’t preclude the country taking a breather for a few years and going back or further out from there. If you and I can ageee it’s a reasonable stab at a resolution for now I’d have hoped it spanned a large bloc across the country. We shall see as people get to know it more, though I’m not that hopeful sadly.
Most people will get the crap they read in papers or see in media, ie a biased lot of propaganda so unlikely it will go well.
Tim Montgomerie, former adviser to IDS, and very much ConHome fully endorses TM deal
Nicky Morgan does the same in the Guardian
As does Fraser Nelson in the Daily Telegraph
No doubt the May apologists will spin this as a triumph for the Prime Minister - really? It's a measure of the ineptitude of the May Government that a deal which would have been ridiculed in 2016 is now seen as our best hope for survival (and by "our" I mean the Conservative Party for the most part).
I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.
Following the failure of the Cabinet rebels to exert any leaverage and Gove, Leadsom etc not resigning, Conservative Leavers will be forced to resort to trying to change the Conservative leader and send in their letters.
Comments
Sums up the lot of them.
Nicky Morgan does the same in the Guardian
As does Fraser Nelson in the Daily Telegraph
This is simulataneously fascinating and horrifying. I have to say I'm very disappointed in the Tories flailing around like nubs. More rapier, less handbags ladies.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this dog's dinner of a deal. At least we might be able to leave in the future!
Unless that was her cunning plan as a Remainer? Produce a deal so awful and a Y2K style Armageddon of No Deal so that we all decide to Remain after all.
Sadly she's not that clever.
I think a good example of the world outside Westminster
Sounds like the Sir Humphreys had been pouring poison in her ear again.
('cos the HoC are not going to vote for a 2nd ref that has No Deal as an option)
Treasonous.
It is reporting exactly what Mark Stone said on Sky reporting from Brussels
I cannot help it if you do not like it
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1063380077227008000
"You don't have to proactively opt to do nothing; you just omit to do anything.
Cock-up beats conspiracy (nearly) every time."
The CS would automatically prepare for a referendum by preparing position papers for both options UNLESS they were stopped from doing so. Step forward David Cameron. Why? I don't know, but I suspect he feared leaks which could give credence to the Leave option.
Remain or remain in all but name. This sums up the whole EU, there really is no escape is there?
As to whether that scenario would be in the national interest, it depends on your party political allegiances and your view of Brexit.
What it is, is leaders trying to be helpful to May today. It really isn't helpful. If you try to box the British into a corner, you might not get the response you expect.
Nor is Barnier the omniscient, omnipresent and omnipotent autocratic world leader. He's a Eurocrat and he HAS to say this is the final deal. Of course he does. If he gave even the slightest whiff of anything otherwise the UK would be all over it.
Do wise up.
Say the loons are correct and we're to be something between a vassal state or an EU colony. How long do you think that would last if we really put our minds to it? We're the UK, fifthish largest economy in the world, nuclear power, cricket, bulldogs etc. It's not a rerun of the Delian league.
You are wrong. Deals are nearly always re-opened until the signing pen has been used.
"Japan's cyber-security minister has 'never used a computer'"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46222026
Russia will be livid....
In the House of Commons, your views are represented by perhaps 50 MPs, 60 at a stretch.
What proportion of the electorate do you think you speak for - and would you be prepared to test that in a second referendum ?
I think the EU would give ground on that and that deal might pass the HoC, given the relative upsides for Remainers and Leavers alike.
However, if the headbangers from ERG to Continuity Remainers get their way it will persist and fester and God knows where we end up. Now May’s deal is not where I want to go and probably not where you want to end up, but it’s a fair reflection to me of a split country. It’s gets us out of the crap I hate, but preserves vast chunks of the economic connections that you are probably ok with. It doesn’t preclude the country taking a breather for a few years and going back or further out from there. If you and I can ageee it’s a reasonable stab at a resolution for now I’d have hoped it spanned a large bloc across the country. We shall see as people get to know it more, though I’m not that hopeful sadly.
Now, while I did vote leave because I did not like the direction of the EU, I do get surprised by this attitude of how blooming great we are, and yet simultaneously thinking that we have no chance of overcoming things in our path like, for instance, a sub-optimal deal. Sure they must be worried, not unreasonably, that once it is done a lot of people will not want to reopen it for quite some time, and why indeed should they face the prospect of decades more struggle. But nothing is forever, as you say. It won't be easy to change things if this deal is adopted, it might even take a long time, but to act like we will never have the chance is simply very defeatist.
And yes, this argument could be flipped, as I have myself suggested to those who think the EU's greatness is self evident, and our need to be in it just as much, that clearly we will get back in not that long from now, even if we take a compromise on a deal to leave now, rather than fight tooth and nail and risk all to remain.
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1063377499831365632?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Difficult to know which of them ought to be more embarrassed to be on the list with the others.
*waves*
You may disagree about how easy it would be, but if you are going to stun me with your vast experience of negotiation you might first want to check that I said you what you think I said.
See? Doesn't say it cannot be reopened.
Damn, my ego is acting up.
Maybe they have put letters in but not made them public or maybe they don't agree with the strategy?
Remainers (the majority of the HoC) would buy it gladly. The UK would have 3years to negotiate a trade deal and if we fail, we go back in.
Even Leavers have something to gain from this, because - as they say - EU membership is better than permanent Limbo as described by the bespoke backstop.
In extreme scenario, there is a way out trigger for a future hard leave govt, unlike the bespoke backstop they can trigger A50 and take two years to prepare for a Hard Exit.
There may be some tweaks possible, but the idea that Corbyn & Starmer (or anyone else) can negotiate anything very different is for the birds.
Starmer can perhaps nudge something more in the EU's direction in return for a nudge elsewhere. But it will be a compromise based on the existing proposals.
As I have repeatedly said, the EU have other pre-occupations.
There is not time for a General Election. The numbers haven't changed radically, so even if Corby wins in terms of most seats, he will be in charge of a possibly minority but certainly weak Government. Labour are barely more united on what they want than the Tories & disgruntled backbenchers will do what disgruntled backbenchers always do when there is a weak Government.
The idea that the EU is going to now wait for all this, and then for Labour to begin a new set of negotiations about Labour unicorns is just beyond ludicrous.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447
Heartily agree with those who have said we will overcome its defects in time. The important thing is to get out. Once we are out, the direction if travel of EU integration will take care of the rest and there will be no return.
JRM et al doing Mrs May the power of good amongst the public who recognise a dogged adherence to duty in the face of adversity when they see it. She is stronger at the end of this week than she was at the beginning imho.
The intellect of ERG may include the same names repeating they have submitted letters to confuse the counting
No doubt the May apologists will spin this as a triumph for the Prime Minister - really? It's a measure of the ineptitude of the May Government that a deal which would have been ridiculed in 2016 is now seen as our best hope for survival (and by "our" I mean the Conservative Party for the most part).
Nothing of course changes on 30/3/19 - we go into a period of Transition in which, to all intents and purposes, we will be full members of the EU with all the obligations (including the Divorce Bill) and no rights in the decision-making process.
That also includes Freedom of Movement which won't end on 30/3/19 either.
https://twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1063354323323764736
"The Free Speech Crisis on Campus Is Worse than People Think
Bradley Campbell"
https://quillette.com/2018/11/14/the-free-speech-crisis-on-campus-is-worse-than-people-think/
Does Brady check his inbox over the weekend? I believe it was said a vote would earliest held on Monday, but it'd be nice, if the number is not reached today, that he could at least update everyone if it is reached on Saturday.
The idea that the two are comparable is absurd, but illustrative of the simplistic beliefs of the ultras.
On that note, before I go, I haven't heard much reported about the SNP's comment on all this. I assume that's because of course they are all opposed to the deal, but I would be surprised if they did not have some cutting remarks about what is going on.
** Anecdote alert. **
My largely non-political other half who is probably more euro-sceptic than me commented over breakfast that he didn't really see what the fuss was about over the deal, that it seemed a reasonable compromise and why was everything kicking off. He also expressed muted admiration for May in being so bloody determined about it. Mind you, he is allergic to pinstripes, upper-class twits and pompous arses generally so not perhaps a natural JRM supporter....... He also described Gove as an odious looking toad, though he does have a big beef with DEFRA about the prospect of extra large pylons on the edge of the Lake District National Park.
It's interesting you don't want to listen to people with expertise on matters in hand.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.