@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Why why why why why? Are they expecting a quiet weekend at home if a vote has not been called?
Steve Baker live on Sky saying if leadership contest the ERG would get behind one candidate and that candidate must have cabinet experience and would not be a brexiteer that has not resigned over the deal.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
Makes you wonder, it the ERG really are this fucking weak and useless...
Then why in the name of ever-living heck did May allow these imbeciles to hijack the whole process for two years?
Surely that makes her a bigger idiot for not realising that they were idiots?
Gaaaaaaah.
Yeah, looking back to right after she became leader, when she was riding high, she was extremely foolish to just agree to everything they wanted. Of course like any self-interested party would do, they just banked all that then moved further to the extreme and asked for more. It's exactly the same mistake Obama made, especially in his first term.
My understanding is that it wasn't so much because she was worried about the Leavers at the time (though I do remember there being quite a bit of tension as they adjusted to having unexpectedly won, being very suspicious about an establishment plot coming in and stealing Brexit away from them), but because Nick Timothy told her to.
Certainly, since a centerist outcome was always both the most pragmatic and the most likely to command public and political support, she was foolish to have started her premiership with rhetoric pandering to the Brexit wing of her party, which was never going to be reconciled to anything halfway credible however hard she tried. Norway for now should have been her plan from the start.
The red lines were unsustainable. Foolish. Starting from an EEA / efta position, maybe customs union maybe not and negotiating around that would have been more productive. Saying we didn’t want foreign courts holding jurisdiction and not wanting free movement, meant that we were always working against the grain.
We wanted what they were unwilling to give us.
Unwilling to give us legal jurisdiction or controlling our borders. Give to us. This says it all doesn't it?
Steve Baker live on Sky saying if leadership contest the ERG would get behind one candidate and that candidate must have cabinet experience and would not be a brexiteer that has not resigned over the deal.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Have they not heard of this thing called 'email'?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
So what do they do if they cant get there?
That may be so, but the speed of this is decided by Sir G Brady.
As far as I am aware, there are no regulations on the speed or frequency at which he has to check his mail, on the method or speed that he has to ask for confirmation that existing correspondents do not wish to withdraw their letter. Is this by email, phone, letter or eyeball to eyeball?
Depending on his wishes (and I don't know where he stands on the issue of Brexit or May), his loyalties and impishness, he has the power to determine the illusion of momentum, should he wish to do so.
It's precisely what I would have expected. But if we get all remainery for a moment - do the public truly know what they are voting/polling on? And if I don't like what they say can I try again later?
Being more serious, the public being against what they have heard is not irrelevant, but it is up to MPs to make the decision and unlike the 2016 vote at present there is not a public referendum which adds significantly more weight to general public opinion on a complex topic, it is not a case of ignoring a public mandate even though, it would seem, much consideration needs to be given on what the public want here. MPs should be advised to do what they think best in the national interest, or kick it back to the public if they feel they cannot decide what is in the national interest, or think they need to know for sure what the public think in an actual vote rather than just a poll.
Whilst that is true, politicians are, of necessity, hyper sensitive to public opinion On which point, interesting to see Chris Green going public. Ultra marginal, and one which swung against the tide in the NW in 2017.
Steve Baker live on Sky saying if leadership contest the ERG would get behind one candidate and that candidate must have cabinet experience and would not be a brexiteer that has not resigned over the deal.
Is Baker the new head of the ERG or something?
No, he is the mover and shaker behind the scenes. JRM is the poster boy.
Is there a rule about Graham Brady Old Lady actually owning and managing a letterbox? It might be that his secretary handles his post, and chucks away all the dull-looking official stuff from boring colleagues.
His secretary also isn't checking his email junk folder......
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
Isn't that how Corbyn's cohort selected which of the hard left would stand each Labour leadership contest? It worked out just fine.
Despite my mockery I am glad those vociferously opposed to the deal are actually following through at last, that is what they should do, but I find it hard to believe even they truly believe unity will follow, because that rather assumes May literally has no support for her present position in party or parliament. She doesn't have enough, may not even have a majority, but she does have some. It's the same reason that stupid Bow Group plan of an interim leader until Brexit is concluded is so silly.
So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?
Satan, same as last week
I thought Satan had resigned from cabinet, leaving only war, famine, pestilence and death.
Say what you want about Death's politics, he is extremely competent which has to be regarded as a positive at this time. I understand as a doctor that is probably difficult though.
Death is more than competent. He has a 100% success rate over the long term.
Is there a rule about Graham Brady Old Lady actually owning and managing a letterbox? It might be that his secretary handles his post, and chucks away all the dull-looking official stuff from boring colleagues.
His secretary also isn't checking his email junk folder......
Imagine how many time Dorries may have sent in letters of no confidence in various Tory PMs by now, Brady probably has a spam filter which just deletes anything from her automatically.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
Sounds sensible to me.
That who the PM is going to be is on the basis of 'drawing lots'
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Have they not heard of this thing called 'email'?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
So what do they do if they cant get there?
That may be so, but the speed of this is decided by Sir G Brady.
As far as I am aware, there are no regulations on the speed or frequency at which he has to check his mail, on the method or speed that he has to ask for confirmation that existing correspondents do not wish to withdraw their letter. Is this by email, phone, letter or eyeball to eyeball?
Depending on his wishes (and I don't know where he stands on the issue of Brexit or May), his loyalties and impishness, he has the power to determine the illusion of momentum, should he wish to do so.
It's precisely what I would have expected. But if we get all remainery for a moment - do the public truly know what they are voting/polling on? And if I don't like what they say can I try again later?
Being more serious, the public being against what they have heard is not irrelevant, but it is up to MPs to make the decision and unlike the 2016 vote at present there is not a public referendum which adds significantly more weight to general public opinion on a complex topic, it is not a case of ignoring a public mandate even though, it would seem, much consideration needs to be given on what the public want here. MPs should be advised to do what they think best in the national interest, or kick it back to the public if they feel they cannot decide what is in the national interest, or think they need to know for sure what the public think in an actual vote rather than just a poll.
Whilst that is true, politicians are, of necessity, hyper sensitive to public opinion On which point, interesting to see Chris Green going public. Ultra marginal, and one which swung against the tide in the NW in 2017.
Being sensitive to public opinion is sensible for an MP, but while not everyone will go, for instance, the Ken Clarke route and just dismiss the referendum for instance, occasionally they have to look past the polling, particularly on complex matters. As May could tell them, polls do shift as well!
Steve Baker live on Sky saying if leadership contest the ERG would get behind one candidate and that candidate must have cabinet experience and would not be a brexiteer that has not resigned over the deal.
Is Baker the new head of the ERG or something?
Baker, to be fair, was a massive player in the Brexit campaign. He took charge of a lot of the procedural stuff and was instrumental in making sure Vote Leave were the official campaign (Keeping Farage and Banks at bay) and fighting for fair wording on the ballot paper question.
He's still a mental little right winger, but an effective one.
ps - anyone who votes/voted for Leadsom as PM is mental. Like I've said before, she's even thicker than me.
My invariably fallible gut feel says the 48 letters are already in. Brady is working out the timing of the VoNC with Theresa May or is deliberately delaying opening his mail, so she can get the TINA message out.
If you really hate deal there's no point in biding your time.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
After this, will we still get told off for using the term "Swivel-eyed Loons"?
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
Sounds sensible to me.
That who the PM is going to be is on the basis of 'drawing lots'
The Loons have lost whatever mind they had.
They've ran head first into the nearest wall and banged their brains out.
So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?
Satan, same as last week
I thought Satan had resigned from cabinet, leaving only war, famine, pestilence and death.
Say what you want about Death's politics, he is extremely competent which has to be regarded as a positive at this time. I understand as a doctor that is probably difficult though.
Death is more than competent. He has a 100% success rate over the long term.
And of course it's only in the long term that Brexiters foresee any benefit whatsoever to the UK.
My invariably fallible gut feel says the 48 letters are already in. Brady is working out the timing of the VoNC with Theresa May or is deliberately delaying opening his mail, so she can get the TINA message out.
Stringing it out so they look foolish on TV is a good tactic.
It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.
No that's a very unfair remark and the kind of thing which shows how out of touch some remainers are with the mood of many people. 52% of this country voted to Leave. The real problem is that we didn't know precisely what we voted for and there was NO contingency on that victory. None. At all.
Cameron.
It's very fair. These winnets undermined Thatcher, brought down Major, ushering in a vast Blairite majority, brought disaster under Hague and IDS, and helped bring down the one person who had won the party a majority at a GE in two decades.
They're insane. Good governance of the country can go hang in their eyes, as long as they reach some undetermined 'leave' out of the EU. It's all that matters to them, and that's not just wrong, it's crazy. Worst of all, they cannot even agree amongst themselves.
You might like to note that before the referendum I pointed out, as you put it, that: "we didn't know precisely what we voted for," and got roundly shouted at by the more belligerent leavers on here for saying so.
In fact, it's the main reason I voted remain: it was clear that a referendum campaign won by leave under their multiple positions would be a disaster.
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Have they not heard of this thing called 'email'?
Seriously though, the first rule of a coup is that you have to move fast, and be decisive. Giving it to next week isn't that, and it seems that the support isn't there.
So what do they do if they cant get there?
That may be so, but the speed of this is decided by Sir G Brady.
As far as I am aware, there are no regulations on the speed or frequency at which he has to check his mail, on the method or speed that he has to ask for confirmation that existing correspondents do not wish to withdraw their letter. Is this by email, phone, letter or eyeball to eyeball?
Depending on his wishes (and I don't know where he stands on the issue of Brexit or May), his loyalties and impishness, he has the power to determine the illusion of momentum, should he wish to do so.
My guess is that he would allow Theresa May a say over the timing and would countenance a delay of a few days if that fits her agenda.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
After this, will we still get told off for using the term "Swivel-eyed Loons"?
Personally, I think the evidence is in ....
Swivel-eyed loons who were members of HM's Government until earlier this year.
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Why why why why why? Are they expecting a quiet weekend at home if a vote has not been called?
It's a bit like those End of the World cults - oh, we misunderstood God, it's actually NEXT July...
The ERGers do sound quite remarkably rattled. Why the panic, if The Deal is certain to be voted down anyway, as they claim?
In their defence, this is the key moment. A lot more people are now talking of the possibility of no brexit at all, and they clearly feel the need to switch to a 'negotiate a new deal' position as soon as possible to head off such talk. Things are no doubt quite fraught as a result.
What I still don't have an answer for is why the Commons should not vote on May's deal. I am certain it will be voted down. But given it was drafted by the PM, who therefore accepts it, as a matter of good faith to the EU (hold the laughter, the plan is to go back and ask them to be nicer to us after all) it would seem reasonable that those who reject it do so and explain why, not have or an alternative PM go 'I didn't even ask Parliament in the end, it was too much hassle'.
It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.
No that's a very unfair remark and the kind of thing which shows how out of touch some remainers are with the mood of many people. 52% of this country voted to Leave. The real problem is that we didn't know precisely what we voted for and there was NO contingency on that victory. None. At all.
Cameron.
It's very fair. These winnets undermined Thatcher, brought down Major, ushering in a vast Blairite majority, brought disaster under Hague and IDS, and helped bring down the one person who had won the party a majority at a GE in two decades.
They're insane. Good governance of the country can go hang in their eyes, as long as they reach some undetermined 'leave' out of the EU. It's all that matters to them, and that's not just wrong, it's crazy. Worst of all, they cannot even agree amongst themselves.
You might like to note that before the referendum I pointed out, as you put it, that: "we didn't know precisely what we voted for," and got roundly shouted at by the more belligerent leavers on here for saying so.
In fact, it's the main reason I voted remain: it was clear that a referendum campaign won by leave under their multiple positions would be a disaster.
And so it has come to pass.
And now we know, not just any old leave - the purest of pure leaves
I think despite all the mockery of the ERG whazzocks here, they will actually get 48 letters at some point.
Yes, but they won't win the vote, they need to surge past 48 if they want any chance of actually deposing May. Struggling to hit that low bar is a poor show for them.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
After this, will we still get told off for using the term "Swivel-eyed Loons"?
Personally, I think the evidence is in ....
Swivel eyed loons will be seen as complimenting by faint criticism in the days and weeks to come.
I think despite all the mockery of the ERG whazzocks here, they will actually get 48 letters at some point.
Oh absolutely they will. Too many people are clearly against May, and not all of them are die hard perennial rebels. But they threatened it and leaked it so many times so often, and denied they wanted May gone for so long when their actions showed that would be necessary for too long (I assume they wanted to look reasonable, but if you are headed down the completely wrong path you don't have to wait until the end to pipe up) that a bit of fun a their expense is inevitable.
@tomhfh 18m18 minutes ago More ERG not expecting no-confidence vote announcement this week. Many MPs holding off submitting letters until parliament returns on Monday."
Specifically Monday 18 November 2019
Why why why why why? Are they expecting a quiet weekend at home if a vote has not been called?
It's a bit like those End of the World cults - oh, we misunderstood God, it's actually NEXT July...
Does the ERG now move to a compound in Waco? Personally I can see the benefits...
Is there a rule about Graham Brady Old Lady actually owning and managing a letterbox? It might be that his secretary handles his post, and chucks away all the dull-looking official stuff from boring colleagues.
His secretary also isn't checking his email junk folder......
Imagine how many time Dorries may have sent in letters of no confidence in various Tory PMs by now, Brady probably has a spam filter which just deletes anything from her automatically.
My invariably fallible gut feel says the 48 letters are already in. Brady is working out the timing of the VoNC with Theresa May or is deliberately delaying opening his mail, so she can get the TINA message out.
Stringing it out so they look foolish on TV is a good tactic.
Agreed. And once the VoNC is called the narrative is entirely about May and not about the Brexit deal. I think May can reasonably be allowed time to make her case for the Brexit deal
It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.
No that's a very unfair remark and the kind of thing which shows how out of touch some remainers are with the mood of many people. 52% of this country voted to Leave. The real problem is that we didn't know precisely what we voted for and there was NO contingency on that victory. None. At all.
Cameron.
It's very fair. These winnets undermined Thatcher, brought down Major, ushering in a vast Blairite majority, brought disaster under Hague and IDS, and helped bring down the one person who had won the party a majority at a GE in two decades.
They're insane. Good governance of the country can go hang in their eyes, as long as they reach some undetermined 'leave' out of the EU. It's all that matters to them, and that's not just wrong, it's crazy. Worst of all, they cannot even agree amongst themselves.
You might like to note that before the referendum I pointed out, as you put it, that: "we didn't know precisely what we voted for," and got roundly shouted at by the more belligerent leavers on here for saying so.
In fact, it's the main reason I voted remain: it was clear that a referendum campaign won by leave under their multiple positions would be a disaster.
It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.
No that's a very unfair remark and the kind of thing which shows how out of touch some remainers are with the mood of many people. 52% of this country voted to Leave. The real problem is that we didn't know precisely what we voted for and there was NO contingency on that victory. None. At all.
Cameron.
It's very fair. These winnets undermined Thatcher, brought down Major, ushering in a vast Blairite majority, brought disaster under Hague and IDS, and helped bring down the one person who had won the party a majority at a GE in two decades.
They're insane. Good governance of the country can go hang in their eyes, as long as they reach some undetermined 'leave' out of the EU. It's all that matters to them, and that's not just wrong, it's crazy. Worst of all, they cannot even agree amongst themselves.
You might like to note that before the referendum I pointed out, as you put it, that: "we didn't know precisely what we voted for," and got roundly shouted at by the more belligerent leavers on here for saying so.
In fact, it's the main reason I voted remain: it was clear that a referendum campaign won by leave under their multiple positions would be a disaster.
And so it has come to pass.
+1 The Lunatics are the tail trying to wag the dog! Time the Tories docked their tail!
How times change. I remember when Sir Graham was so lauded by Leavers that he was touted for next Prime Minister. Now he’s supposedly acting nefariously against the spirit of Brexit by suppressing letters calling for a vote of no confidence. The juggernaut of Brexit purity rolls on.
The ERGers do sound quite remarkably rattled. Why the panic, if The Deal is certain to be voted down anyway, as they claim?
If it gets voted down without them in control then who needs the ERG? They need to look like they are in charge. The problem is, as Mike has pointed out, that if they fail, then they comprehensively prove that they are nothing more than a bunch of fantasists with delusions of grandeur.
I think despite all the mockery of the ERG whazzocks here, they will actually get 48 letters at some point.
Yes, but they won't win the vote, they need to surge past 48 if they want any chance of actually deposing May. Struggling to hit that low bar is a poor show for them.
I suspect there are a material number of Tory MPs who want ERG to do their dirty work for them whilst not having to do the distatefl bit of looking unloyal to the PM. When it comes to putting their electoral fortunes back in her hands, however....
"Despite doing her best, it's time to move on and let somone else have a go...."
I think despite all the mockery of the ERG whazzocks here, they will actually get 48 letters at some point.
Yes, but they won't win the vote, they need to surge past 48 if they want any chance of actually deposing May. Struggling to hit that low bar is a poor show for them.
Does Brady need to reveal how many letters are received or just the fact he has received enough letters to trigger the vote.
If it's the latter you can see why leaving it as long as possible as ERG start to worry about who actually sent a letter is a very sensible plan. It only fails once the 48th person makes their letter public knowledge...
The ERGers do sound quite remarkably rattled. Why the panic, if The Deal is certain to be voted down anyway, as they claim?
I think it's because they are worried about what May might offer (referendum) to win support from Labour (on a second vote if necessary).
They don't think she will simply say, "no deal it is then," in the event that she loses the first vote.
Certainly not if the ERG rebelled in huge numbers. If Labour was the primary cause of the defeat then she'd be less minded to offer a second ref and might tell Labour it is this deal or no deal. But, I agree the ERG's actions make a second ref more likely !
The ERGers do sound quite remarkably rattled. Why the panic, if The Deal is certain to be voted down anyway, as they claim?
If it gets voted down without them in control then who needs the ERG? They need to look like they are in charge. The problem is, as Mike has pointed out, that if they fail, then they comprehensively prove that they are nothing more than a bunch of fantasists with delusions of grandeur.
I think despite all the mockery of the ERG whazzocks here, they will actually get 48 letters at some point.
Yes, but they won't win the vote, they need to surge past 48 if they want any chance of actually deposing May. Struggling to hit that low bar is a poor show for them.
Does Brady need to reveal how many letters are received or just the fact he has received enough letters to trigger the vote.
If it's the latter you can see why leaving it as long as possible as ERG start to worry about who actually sent a letter is a very sensible plan. It only fails once the 48th person makes their letter public knowledge...
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
After this, will we still get told off for using the term "Swivel-eyed Loons"?
Personally, I think the evidence is in ....
Swivel-eyed loons who were members of HM's Government until earlier this year.
The ERGers do sound quite remarkably rattled. Why the panic, if The Deal is certain to be voted down anyway, as they claim?
I think it's because they are worried about what May might offer (referendum) to win support from Labour (on a second vote if necessary).
They don't think she will simply say, "no deal it is then," in the event that she loses the first vote.
I don't understand that. Why not wait until after the vote and bung in the letters if she then goes down a route they don't like? By striking now, they risk making her stronger in the short term and more able to withstand pressure for a whole year.
The only rational explanation for their behaviour is that they think the deal might pass in the Commons. (Well, I say 'rational', which might be putting it a bit strongly, but you know what I mean.)
I think despite all the mockery of the ERG whazzocks here, they will actually get 48 letters at some point.
Yes, but they won't win the vote, they need to surge past 48 if they want any chance of actually deposing May. Struggling to hit that low bar is a poor show for them.
I suspect there are a material number of Tory MPs who want ERG to do their dirty work for them whilst not having to do the distasteful bit of looking unloyal to the PM. When it comes to putting their electoral fortunes back in her hands, however....
"Despite doing her best, it's time to move on and let somone else have a go...."
It's very fair. These winnets undermined Thatcher, brought down Major, ushering in a vast Blairite majority, brought disaster under Hague and IDS, and helped bring down the one person who had won the party a majority at a GE in two decades.
They're insane. Good governance of the country can go hang in their eyes, as long as they reach some undetermined 'leave' out of the EU. It's all that matters to them, and that's not just wrong, it's crazy. Worst of all, they cannot even agree amongst themselves.
Yet most of them take inspiration from Margaret Thatcher and Bruges. From then they saw their mission as first combatting federalism and when that failed getting out completely.
The Conservatives were once the most pro-Europe of the main parties and it was Labour who pledged to leave the then EEC in 1983.
The ERGers do sound quite remarkably rattled. Why the panic, if The Deal is certain to be voted down anyway, as they claim?
I think it's because they are worried about what May might offer (referendum) to win support from Labour (on a second vote if necessary).
They don't think she will simply say, "no deal it is then," in the event that she loses the first vote.
I don't understand that. Why not wait until after the vote and bung in the letters if she then goes down a route they don't like? By striking now, they risk making her stronger in the short term and more able to withstand pressure for a whole year.
The only rational explanation for their behaviour is that they think the deal might pass in the Commons. (Well, I say 'rational', which might be putting it a bit strongly, but you know what I mean.)
If they think it might pass they are the only ones who do.
While the US has been banging on about the mid term the Germans have now finally finished counting in Hessen. The Greens beat the SPD in to second place by 66 votes.
I don't understand that. Why not wait until after the vote and bung in the letters if she then goes down a route they don't like? By striking now, they risk making her stronger in the short term and more able to withstand pressure for a whole year.
The only rational explanation for their behaviour is that they think the deal might pass in the Commons. (Well, I say 'rational', which might be putting it a bit strongly, but you know what I mean.)
I have no evidence for this but my assumption is their assumption is they haven't got enough votes to defeat May but enough to wound.
Nick P asked the question earlier and now I'll ask it - how much of a win does May need? I'd argue that if at least 120 MPs don't vote for her she has to go. I know the rules say 160 supporting is enough but this is politics not a rule book.
Major got 218 votes in 1995 and apparently would have quit had he got less than 214. Thatcher failed the first ballot on the Berkeley rules in 1990 but had it been a straight fight who could have taken her seriously with 170 MPs not supporting her?
Perhaps, as HYUFD has opined and like Corbyn she will play absolutely to the rule book and she has the hide of a rhinoceros (I doubt the latter incidentally) and f she wins 160-158 she will claim victory and carry on but no one will be fooled.
So who's looking after Universal Credit at the moment?
Satan, same as last week
I thought Satan had resigned from cabinet, leaving only war, famine, pestilence and death.
Say what you want about Death's politics, he is extremely competent which has to be regarded as a positive at this time. I understand as a doctor that is probably difficult though.
Death is more than competent. He has a 100% success rate over the long term.
"I knew a man who once said: "Death smiles at us all. All a man can do is smile back!""
Comments
(((Dan Hodges)))
Verified account @DPJHodges
2m2 minutes ago
Unless I misheard, Steve Baker just said on Sky the Brexiteers would "draw lots" to decide who their leadership candidate is. Draw lots. To determine the Prime Minister. This is lunacy.
What the actual f**king f**k ????
This says it all doesn't it?
On which point, interesting to see Chris Green going public. Ultra marginal, and one which swung against the tide in the NW in 2017.
Despite my mockery I am glad those vociferously opposed to the deal are actually following through at last, that is what they should do, but I find it hard to believe even they truly believe unity will follow, because that rather assumes May literally has no support for her present position in party or parliament. She doesn't have enough, may not even have a majority, but she does have some. It's the same reason that stupid Bow Group plan of an interim leader until Brexit is concluded is so silly.
They are taking advice from the Japanese cybersecurity minister.
The Loons have lost whatever mind they had.
I can’t even.
He's still a mental little right winger, but an effective one.
ps - anyone who votes/voted for Leadsom as PM is mental. Like I've said before, she's even thicker than me.
If you really hate deal there's no point in biding your time.
Personally, I think the evidence is in ....
They're insane. Good governance of the country can go hang in their eyes, as long as they reach some undetermined 'leave' out of the EU. It's all that matters to them, and that's not just wrong, it's crazy. Worst of all, they cannot even agree amongst themselves.
You might like to note that before the referendum I pointed out, as you put it, that: "we didn't know precisely what we voted for," and got roundly shouted at by the more belligerent leavers on here for saying so.
In fact, it's the main reason I voted remain: it was clear that a referendum campaign won by leave under their multiple positions would be a disaster.
And so it has come to pass.
There are now only two viable scenarios:
1) There are 48 letters; or
2) There are not 48 letters.
If the former then what the fuck are they waiting for.
If the latter then they are a bunch of ill-organised, solipsistic dipshits.
Actually if the former then they are also a bunch of ill-organised, solipsistic dipshits.
Your welcome.
What I still don't have an answer for is why the Commons should not vote on May's deal. I am certain it will be voted down. But given it was drafted by the PM, who therefore accepts it, as a matter of good faith to the EU (hold the laughter, the plan is to go back and ask them to be nicer to us after all) it would seem reasonable that those who reject it do so and explain why, not have or an alternative PM go 'I didn't even ask Parliament in the end, it was too much hassle'.
Simply the scientific letter constant in action. You can't override the laws of physics.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/11/why-are-tory-rebels-pushing-confidence-vote-they-might-not-win
They don't think she will simply say, "no deal it is then," in the event that she loses the first vote.
"Despite doing her best, it's time to move on and let somone else have a go...."
If it's the latter you can see why leaving it as long as possible as ERG start to worry about who actually sent a letter is a very sensible plan. It only fails once the 48th person makes their letter public knowledge...
But, I agree the ERG's actions make a second ref more likely !
The only rational explanation for their behaviour is that they think the deal might pass in the Commons. (Well, I say 'rational', which might be putting it a bit strongly, but you know what I mean.)
The Conservatives were once the most pro-Europe of the main parties and it was Labour who pledged to leave the then EEC in 1983.
FOR: Marquee Mark, David Herdson
AGAINST: Big G, TSE, Casino, Richard Nabavi, HFUYD, John O, Mortimer, Tissue Price
Must be missing others (sorry) but if my surmises are correct, Mrs M survives by a landslide.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article183958396/Amtliches-Endergebnis-zur-Landtagswahl-in-Hessen-Gruene-bleiben-knapp-vor-der-SPD.html
https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/14/google-is-closing-its-schaft-robotics-unit/
How didn't they go with the headline Google Robotics Schafted..
Nick P asked the question earlier and now I'll ask it - how much of a win does May need? I'd argue that if at least 120 MPs don't vote for her she has to go. I know the rules say 160 supporting is enough but this is politics not a rule book.
Major got 218 votes in 1995 and apparently would have quit had he got less than 214. Thatcher failed the first ballot on the Berkeley rules in 1990 but had it been a straight fight who could have taken her seriously with 170 MPs not supporting her?
Perhaps, as HYUFD has opined and like Corbyn she will play absolutely to the rule book and she has the hide of a rhinoceros (I doubt the latter incidentally) and f she wins 160-158 she will claim victory and carry on but no one will be fooled.