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  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726

    Interesting snippet from Portillo:
    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1063220990845452288

    Shame This Week isn't on rather earlier, to be honest.

    There is this modern contraption called iPlayer I've heard.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JRM has been all mouth and no trousers for a long time but yesterday, finally, he did actually act. Mrs May doesn’t have a monopoly on brains, has produced a dire Brexit that is actually worse than staying in the EU and has fundamentally misunderstood why Leave won. To deliver such an cataclysmic climb down as her Brexit deal, she has sacriced the Gov’s entire domestic policy agenda which is an abdication of good government.

    JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.

    Leave won because Northern Ireland doesn't want to be connected economically with the Republic?
    Leave win because it secured 52% of the votes compared to Remain’s 48%.
    And Mrs May does not understand that?

    Well, it's a view.

    How does her deal deliver anything that reflects why voted Leave ? It doesn’t give us control of anything - not our money, not our borders, and not our laws let alone anything else.

    The leave campaign was about more money for the NHS
    That was the sign in the Vote Leave bus. I don’t think any of the Vote Leave campaigners spent too much time on the doorstep discussing the NHS. I didn’t and Leave.EU seemed fixated on immigration almost exclusively.
    Dominic Cummings, who was looking at the data, credited the NHS bus with getting Leave over the line. The official leave campaign feared that Farage banging on about immigrants all the time was driving voters away. Of course, this could be because they'd already banked the anti-immigration vote.

    So I believe. I haven’t seen any stats myself to confirm that. Of the 52%, how many voted on the basis of the NHS as opposed to say immigration, sovereignty etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    Not just the UK in crisis at the moment, also Sweden and Italy. Sweden can't form a government and Italy is about to be taken to task by the EU for excessive spending.

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/11/17/sweden-fails-to-form-a-government

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46203605
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Roger said:

    Interesting but not surprising. Though I now have quite a respect for Mrs May's qualities appointing Davis Johnson and Fox showed a reckless lack of judgement
    One of his issues may have revolved around no clear and agreed position in UK.

    You could say as Brexit secretary it was his job to formulate that. You could also wonder if he was allowed to formulate it.

    Many things are not as clear cut as they appear.
  • You're much too hasty Mike.

    Events dear boy, events.

    Watch the next 72 hours ...

    You may be right.. but the movement could be either way.

    I still think the view expressed on here - that the deal's not too bad and most people just want it to be got on with - has some merit.

    Although I was surprised by the vehemence and unanimity against it in the Commons yesterday, it might not take too many constituency chairmen getting grief from their business chums on the golf course this week to soften it.

    At the same time, the ultras on both sides might realise it's a complete coin toss if this fails whether they get No Deal or Remain, and decide this is the least worst option.

    Apart from the vote in parliament, yesterday was the biggest chance to disrupt this. Had Mordaunt and Gove jumped with Raab and McVey, AND 48 letters gone in, it may have proved fatal. But every day she and the deal go on, they're stronger than they were the day before.
    On the other hand...

    LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The 48 letters from Conservative
    lawmakers required to trigger a vote of no confidence in Prime
    Minister Theresa May have been submitted, the editor of
    BrexitCentral said on Friday, citing a single source who he said
    was always previously reliable.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    Is this what Gove was waiting for?
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JRM has been all mouth and no trousers for a long time but yesterday, finally, he did actually act. Mrs May doesn’t have a monopoly on brains, has produced a dire Brexit that is actually worse than staying in the EU and has fundamentally misunderstood why Leave won. To deliver such an cataclysmic climb down as her Brexit deal, she has sacriced the Gov’s entire domestic policy agenda which is an abdication of good government.

    JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.

    Leave won because Northern Ireland doesn't want to be connected economically with the Republic?
    Leave win because it secured 52% of the votes compared to Remain’s 48%.
    And Mrs May does not understand that?

    Well, it's a view.

    How does her deal deliver anything that reflects why voted Leave ? It doesn’t give us control of anything - not our money, not our borders, and not our laws let alone anything else.
    I thought that it would:
    - stop us paying for the CAP.
    - stop freedom of movement.
    I think in all circumstances we have to follow regulations in the single market if we want to sell into the single market, so I don't see any scenario - except some sort of self-defeating trade war - where we do not have to follow EU law to some extent.

    Your side have won. My side lost. Rejoice?
    We do come out the CAP but as trade hasn’t been discussed yet, then we don’t know whether we’ll have to pay towards further trade as countries like Norway currently do. Where, in May’s deal is immigration dealt with ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    Was it Mike's Thread Header this morning that tipped the balance? :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Roger said:

    Interesting but not surprising. Though I now have quite a respect for Mrs May's qualities appointing Davis Johnson and Fox showed a reckless lack of judgement
    David and Fox, quite probably (although Fox never had anything real to do, so he was kept onside enjoying the trimmings with no power). But appointing BJ as FS (FFS) was a masterstroke, proving the Peter Principle and saving the nation from having that principle tested in the top job.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    "London Capital Markets ®
    @LCMTrading
    1m1 minute ago

    We are hearing they have the 48 letters required for a no confidence vote GBP down hard again.."
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018

    You're much too hasty Mike.

    Events dear boy, events.

    Watch the next 72 hours ...

    You may be right.. but the movement could be either way.

    I still think the view expressed on here - that the deal's not too bad and most people just want it to be got on with - has some merit.

    Although I was surprised by the vehemence and unanimity against it in the Commons yesterday, it might not take too many constituency chairmen getting grief from their business chums on the golf course this week to soften it.

    At the same time, the ultras on both sides might realise it's a complete coin toss if this fails whether they get No Deal or Remain, and decide this is the least worst option.

    Apart from the vote in parliament, yesterday was the biggest chance to disrupt this. Had Mordaunt and Gove jumped with Raab and McVey, AND 48 letters gone in, it may have proved fatal. But every day she and the deal go on, they're stronger than they were the day before.
    On the other hand...

    LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The 48 letters from Conservative
    lawmakers required to trigger a vote of no confidence in Prime
    Minister Theresa May have been submitted, the editor of
    BrexitCentral said on Friday, citing a single source who he said
    was always previously reliable.
    I did say that when the ERG act, they act decisively...

    Damnit, this is so frustrating when there is a deal
    On the table.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited November 2018
    To paraphrase Dilbert, the Tories are in a car with a flat. Rotating the tyres isn't actually going to fix the problem.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    About time for the sake of everyone bring it to a head.
  • If a leadership vote is called and May wins it, that means she cannot be removed if the deal fails, at which point she could opt for a second referendum vote with impunity. Just a thought on how this might backfire (the saga does seem to be a competitive sport of shooting oneself in one's foot).
  • DavidL said:

    Far more serious than any of this what on earth has happened to Moeen's batting? On form Jimmy should be looking slightly askance at his position in the line up.

    Match back in the balance again. It's riveting stuff.

    Edit, in fairness unlucky there, struck outside the line.

    Since his return to the team he has 22 wickets at under 22 runs per wicket.

    He's had five innings at number three, where he's scored a fifty, but only 82 runs in total, but he didn't start back there and isn't there now. There's a general malaise in the team's batting which he is only a part of.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    General election in 2019 favourite on Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    Is this what Gove was waiting for?
    His wife will be measuring the curtains in downing street.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Confidence vote in PM now "likely" as Tory whips told to return to London - Sky sources"

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    DavidL said:

    If Theresa May can survive to take this to the meaningful vote it will be defeated in the first instance. It then looks like there are a couple of alternatives.

    1. After failing with a vote of no confidence, the Labour frontbench adopts a second referendum as policy and the deal passes the Commons when May makes that concession. It's worth remembering that this is a concession she can offer, unlike many that will be demanded that would require a concession from the EU.

    2. In the face of the threat of a second referendum the ERG and Labour Leavers cave and support May's deal in a second Commons vote.

    This is why the ERG have made a move against May. If she survives then she finds a way to avoid a no-deal. If they can bring her down then they can create enough chaos and confusion for four months to achieve the no deal Brexit they want.

    There will be immense pressure on May to stand down when the Commons rejects her deal in the meaningful vote. But she seems to be the only hope for avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

    Its a plausible scenario (but let's face it, we are in a position where the apparently necessary unicorns arriving in formation as pegasuses is starting to seem all too possible) but I am not entirely sure that even the limpet May could survive (a) the first defeat and (b) the offer of a second referendum.
    She technically could...only if shed already faced a vote of no confidence and could not be challenged again. Although even then they could make her position untenable.

    But everyone can see she will lose the vote so that is built in. The question, if it gets that far, is do the Tories want to deliver brexit or not. A referendum might be the only way.
  • Has anyone backed the May out, Trump out double?
  • Yorkcity said:

    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    About time for the sake of everyone bring it to a head.
    The trouble is there are two diametrically-opposed views of what that head should be (with May being Option 3 in the middle).

    I still think those pressing the button should be bloody careful what they wish for.
  • AndyJS said:

    General election in 2019 favourite on Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836

    I thought you said 2018 for a moment there
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting snippet from Portillo:
    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1063220990845452288

    Shame This Week isn't on rather earlier, to be honest.

    Portillo's prediction is that it will be the Cabinet that does May in when they realize the deal won't get through Parliament and as Theresa won't abandon it they'll have to abandon her (to save the government and their jobs)
    Also May not being straight with Raab has had consequences.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    The Spectator has this updating page enabling letter writers to out themselves.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/letters-of-no-confidence-in-theresa-may-live-updates/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yorkcity said:

    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    About time for the sake of everyone bring it to a head.
    Corbyn in Downing Street moves a step closer.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    With apologies to the sensible 'Leavers' I now would prefer a second referendum in which I'd repeat my Remain vote and be moderately confident of victory. for me the antics of the 'ultras' have negated my willingness to accept the original result.


    I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
    You cain’t always get what you want....
    That is not the point. Remainers didn’t get what they wanted in the referendum and look how badly they have behaved since - like spoilt brats.

    The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
    Have you read the deal? It does exactly that.
    How does it actually gives back control of those. It says nothing about immigration, our trading laws are determined by Brussels with us having g no say; trade isn’t mentioned so the issue of paying for trade isn’t discussed let alone raised, and we are faced with being in a customs union which,together with the EU determining our trading laws, effectively rules out our ability to conclude any trade deals on our own.
    Well tough, the reality of the modern global economy is that common rules need to be followed between countries. It would of course far more preferably to have kept the status that meant we actually had a say in them.
    Don’t know much about the economy then do you. Exporters always have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That is as true for U.K. companies exporting to the EU under Singke Marketrukes as it is for U.K. exporters selling to the US under WTO rules.

    It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.
    Curious how a couple of hardcore Brexiteers with an uber-aggressive posting style have popped up since archer was banned.
  • AndyJS said:

    "Confidence vote in PM now "likely" as Tory whips told to return to London - Sky sources"

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447

    or it's a clever ploy to pile the pressure on the waiverers.

    dunno
  • "Michael Gove has arrived for work at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in Westminster. But he did not comment to reporters as he went in, the Press Association reports."
  • Bet on Brexit falling and we remain in the EU
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    AndyJS said:

    "Confidence vote in PM now "likely" as Tory whips told to return to London - Sky sources"

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447

    Which May will win and be untouchable until after Brexit if it now still happens at all
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    AndyJS said:

    "Confidence vote in PM now "likely" as Tory whips told to return to London - Sky sources"

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447

    or it's a clever ploy to pile the pressure on the waiverers.

    dunno
    If we have learned anything through this, they are simply not that clever.

    What's curious is that if they have now only just reached 48, there Brady must have been sitting on ewer than 20-25 letters in all this time. Nowhere near the 48.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    A better bet is laying JRM for next Tory leader. He's still around 12-13 on Betfair and his current demonstration as to why no-one in politics has ever trusted him with any sort of even junior power should put him firmly out of the race.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Also, as a country we should back May's deal. It's the only deal in town, even though it's obviously inferior to remaining in the EU.

    The default to this deal is a hard Brexit. I wish the default was the status-quo (remaining in the EU) but sadly it isn't.

    For goodness sake only 32% back No Deal in Sky's poll yesterday, that is even less popular than the poll tax.

    The default without this deal will end up being Remain, the question then is just when not if
    HYUFD - the legal default is No deal. Politics needs to happen for that to change in any direction.

    We’re not led by sentient opinion polls.
    We now have a Deal. If May cannot get her Deal through Parliament it will now likely be EUref2, perhaps even called by May herself.


    No Deal now means riots on the streets with less than a third support for it that make the poll tax riots look like a picnic and the collapse of the £, the stock exchange and the economy. I repeat No Deal means it is a question of when not if we stay in the EU before next March or we rejoin the EEA with full single market and customs union membership after

    Brexiteers better realise this Deal is the best Brexit they will get
    But they are not making rational, evidence-based judgments. Many of them are cultists, just as blinkered and fanatical (perhaps more so) as Corbyn cultists. Brexit is the revealed truth and sullying it with compromises such as the May deal is sacrilege.

    And many of the less devoted followers revel in opposition, grievance, and victimhood. They don't really care if Brexit collapses, they will go back to their comfort zone and spend the rest of their lives blaming the EU for everything that is wrong in the world. Much easier than taking responsibility for the unholy mess they have created.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Also, as a country we should back May's deal. It's the only deal in town, even though it's obviously inferior to remaining in the EU.

    The default to this deal is a hard Brexit. I wish the default was the status-quo (remaining in the EU) but sadly it isn't.

    For goodness sake only 32% back No Deal in Sky's poll yesterday, that is even less popular than the poll tax.

    The default without this deal will end up being Remain, the question then is just when not if
    HYUFD - the legal default is No deal. Politics needs to happen for that to change in any direction.

    We’re not led by sentient opinion polls.
    We now have a Deal. If May cannot get her Deal through Parliament it will now likely be EUref2, perhaps even called by May herself.


    No Deal now means riots on the streets with less than a third support for it that make the poll tax riots look like a picnic and the collapse of the £, the stock exchange and the economy. I repeat No Deal means it is a question of when not if we stay in the EU before next March or we rejoin the EEA with full single market and customs union membership after

    Brexiteers better realise this Deal is the best Brexit they will get
    One of the problems of prioritising opinion polling over legislation on the statute book is that you don’t properly understand the legislation.

    I reluctantly support the deal, but telling people that No deal wont be the outcome of voting it down is irresponsible when that is what the laws point to.

    Who makes the laws? Parliament and we know Parliament will vote for EUref2 over No Deal.

    Indeed May.might well propose EUref2 if her Deal cannot get through
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    With apologies to the sensible 'Leavers' I now would prefer a second referendum in which I'd repeat my Remain vote and be moderately confident of victory. for me the antics of the 'ultras' have negated my willingness to accept the original result.


    I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
    You cain’t always get what you want....
    That is not the point. Remainers didn’t get what they wanted in the referendum and look how badly they have behaved since - like spoilt brats.

    The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
    Have you read the deal? It does exactly that.
    How does it actually gives back control of those. It says nothing about immigration, our trading laws are determined by Brussels with us having g no say; trade isn’t mentioned so the issue of paying for trade isn’t discussed let alone raised, and we are faced with being in a customs union which,together with the EU determining our trading laws, effectively rules out our ability to conclude any trade deals on our own.
    Well tough, the reality of the modern global economy is that common rules need to be followed between countries. It would of course far more preferably to have kept the status that meant we actually had a say in them.
    Don’t know much about the economy then do you. Exporters always have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That is as true for U.K. companies exporting to the EU under Singke Marketrukes as it is for U.K. exporters selling to the US under WTO rules.

    It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.
    Curious how a couple of hardcore Brexiteers with an uber-aggressive posting style have popped up since archer was banned.
    I missed his ban; without re-opening, what was the offence?
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Most of politics is about relationships and respect. Unfortunately, TMay has never really built relationships within her party and particularly her cabinet, result? Having sent Olly Robbins off to Brussels to negotiate the leaving, with two appointed cabinet ministers to twiddle their thumbs completely outside the box, then presents the "Final Document" as all her own work.

    Davis was a waste of space and his reputation has been severely damaged, but Raab was clever enough but appointed too late, but from the beginning, she appointed the wrong people into the wrong positions for the wrong reasons - and the whole of the Westminster Bubble knows it.

    She has lost her own party, and the respect due to a PM, by everyone else. Whatever she came up with was always going to be destroyed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    I disagree with your statement that "The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state." However, much of what you state is valid, and it may be better to look at the deal as a "cup half full", as the alternatives are likely to be much worse. I was merely highlighting the key issue, as I see things. I am not concerned about the implications for the 6 counties, as they are on the road to rejoining the rest of Ireland to make a whole nation once again.

    "Perpetual" means "never ending or changing".

    I will bet you £5 that the UK-EU customs union ends before the heat death of the universe. I'll even offer you 10-1 if you like,
    It'll be a pity if Brexit is undone because Brexit Ultras can't compose themselves with a modicum of patience. We spent a long time in the EU. A gentle undocking over time would be better (and more respectful of a substantial minority who would like to reverse course!) than simply stripping naked and hurling ourselves out of the EU window.
    Well yes.

    I am increasingly optimistic that the House of Commons will - reluctantly - back this deal.

    I've loaded up on Dixons shares in anticipation.
    I was totally confident of that at the beginning of the week but yesterday was a shocker and no mistake. So many people will have to climb down from such peaks of pomposity that it is hard to imagine it happening any time soon. May's deal is the pragmatic thing to do but pragmatism is being trounced by vanity and self perceived virtuosity.
    There are a lot of people who want to vote against it to register a protest, but would secretly prefer it to pass. Which is why the 48 votes have not materialised. People want intellectual purity without the consequences, which means voting against something you hope will pass.
    I can believe your first sentence which is why the deal must be voted on in the commons. If it is crap and must fall they must collectively, as Mps, reject it. Not have it withdrawn and, potentially at least, accidentally no deal and have some numpty say they might have voted for it after all.

    But I do think it will fail and fail big. DavidL is right too many have to cling down too much, and more importantly labour need dozens to do so for this to pass.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Curious how a couple of hardcore Brexiteers with an uber-aggressive posting style have popped up since archer was banned.

    This guy lacks Archer's monomaniacal clarity.

    I'm enjoying these Westminster shenanigans enormously,

    "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive
    But to be a bitter remainer was very heaven."
    Wordsworth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Also, as a country we should back May's deal. It's the only deal in town, even though it's obviously inferior to remaining in the EU.

    The default to this deal is a hard Brexit. I wish the default was the status-quo (remaining in the EU) but sadly it isn't.

    For goodness sake only 32% back No Deal in Sky's poll yesterday, that is even less popular than the poll tax.

    The default without this deal will end up being Remain, the question then is just when not if
    HYUFD - the legal default is No deal. Politics needs to happen for that to change in any direction.

    We’re not led by sentient opinion polls.
    We now have a Deal. If May cannot get her Deal through Parliament it will now likely be EUref2, perhaps even called by May herself.


    No Deal now means riots on the streets with less than a third support for it that make the poll tax riots look like a picnic and the collapse of the £, the stock exchange and the economy. I repeat No Deal means it is a question of when not if we stay in the EU before next March or we rejoin the EEA with full single market and customs union membership after

    Brexiteers better realise this Deal is the best Brexit they will get
    But they are not making rational, evidence-based judgments. Many of them are cultists, just as blinkered and fanatical (perhaps more so) as Corbyn cultists. Brexit is the revealed truth and sullying it with compromises such as the May deal is sacrilege.

    And many of the less devoted followers revel in opposition, grievance, and victimhood. They don't really care if Brexit collapses, they will go back to their comfort zone and spend the rest of their lives blaming the EU for everything that is wrong in the world. Much easier than taking responsibility for the unholy mess they have created.
    Yes, Farage is warming up his UKIP leader return speech now
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting snippet from Portillo:
    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1063220990845452288

    Shame This Week isn't on rather earlier, to be honest.

    Portillo's prediction is that it will be the Cabinet that does May in when they realize the deal won't get through Parliament and as Theresa won't abandon it they'll have to abandon her (to save the government and their jobs)
    Also May not being straight with Raab has had consequences.
    If the concessions were made by her behind Raab's back as has been reported, then the Cabinet should oust her.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If I had 1 pound every time I was told 48 letters were deffo almost in I'd have a good sight more than 48 quid.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    Is this what Gove was waiting for?
    And Hunt. And Javid.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    With apologies to the sensible 'Leavers' I now would prefer a second referendum in which I'd repeat my Remain vote and be moderately confident of victory. for me the antics of the 'ultras' have negated my willingness to accept the original result.


    I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
    You cain’t always get what you want....
    That is not the point. Remainers didn’t get what they wanted in the referendum and look how badly they have behaved since - like spoilt brats.

    The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
    Have you read the deal? It does exactly that.
    How does it actually gives back control of those. It says nothing about immigration, our trading laws are determined by Brussels with us having g no say; trade isn’t mentioned so the issue of paying for trade isn’t discussed let alone raised, and we are faced with being in a customs union which,together with the EU determining our trading laws, effectively rules out our ability to conclude any trade deals on our own.
    Well tough, the reality of the modern global economy is that common rules need to be followed between countries. It would of course far more preferably to have kept the status that meant we actually had a say in them.
    Don’t know much about the economy then do you. Exporters always have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That is as true for U.K. companies exporting to the EU under Singke Marketrukes as it is for U.K. exporters selling to the US under WTO rules.

    It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.
    So you want to hamstring part of the other 20% when we have a horrendous balance of payment deficit.
    Errm.. OK.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    With apologies to the sensible 'Leavers' I now would prefer a second referendum in which I'd repeat my Remain vote and be moderately confident of victory. for me the antics of the 'ultras' have negated my willingness to accept the original result.


    I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
    You cain’t always get what you want....
    That is not the point. Remainers didn’t get what they wanted in the referendum and look how badly they have behaved since - like spoilt brats.

    The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
    Have you read the deal? It does exactly that.
    How does it actually gives back control of those. It says nothing about immigration, our trading laws are determined by Brussels with us having g no say; trade isn’t mentioned so the issue of paying for trade isn’t discussed let alone raised, and we are faced with being in a customs union which,together with the EU determining our trading laws, effectively rules out our ability to conclude any trade deals on our own.
    Well tough, the reality of the modern global economy is that common rules need to be followed between countries. It would of course far more preferably to have kept the status that meant we actually had a say in them.
    Don’t know much about the economy then do you. Exporters always have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That is as true for U.K. companies exporting to the EU under Singke Marketrukes as it is for U.K. exporters selling to the US under WTO rules.

    It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.
    So you want to hamstring part of the other 20% when we have a horrendous balance of payment deficit.
    Errm.. OK.
    Painful as it would be, would it not help our balance of payments?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    OchEye said:

    Most of politics is about relationships and respect. Unfortunately, TMay has never really built relationships within her party and particularly her cabinet, result? Having sent Olly Robbins off to Brussels to negotiate the leaving, with two appointed cabinet ministers to twiddle their thumbs completely outside the box, then presents the "Final Document" as all her own work.

    Davis was a waste of space and his reputation has been severely damaged, but Raab was clever enough but appointed too late, but from the beginning, she appointed the wrong people into the wrong positions for the wrong reasons - and the whole of the Westminster Bubble knows it.

    She has lost her own party, and the respect due to a PM, by everyone else. Whatever she came up with was always going to be destroyed.

    Spot on Och Eye - add in her bizarre decision to make and keep the clot Hammond as CoTE when every budget turns to a turd and there should be little sympathy for her when she gets the boot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    JRM has been all mouth and no trousers for a long time but yesterday, finally, he did actually act. Mrs May doesn’t have a monopoly on brains, has produced a dire Brexit that is actually worse than staying in the EU and has fundamentally misunderstood why Leave won. To deliver such an cataclysmic climb down as her Brexit deal, she has sacriced the Gov’s entire domestic policy agenda which is an abdication of good government.

    JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.

    It will say things about both because there was no sensible reason he had not already sent in a letter as he and his cohort were furious about the plan already yet were pretending that could change without May going. It wasn't polite it was silly. I'm very glad he has finally acted as if he thinks the deal is that bad he should vote against her.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Confidence vote in PM now "likely" as Tory whips told to return to London - Sky sources"

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-michael-gove-could-quit-as-theresa-may-refuses-to-ditch-brexit-draft-11555447

    or it's a clever ploy to pile the pressure on the waiverers.

    dunno
    If we have learned anything through this, they are simply not that clever.

    What's curious is that if they have now only just reached 48, there Brady must have been sitting on ewer than 20-25 letters in all this time. Nowhere near the 48.
    That assumes he reacts instantly. He may employ a cooling off period policy. He may not, but we do not know.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Immediately after the referendum, we had moans from the Remainers that we were paranoid, because we weren't over-joyed by our victory. Cheer up, you've won, they said..

    The Leavers' fear was always that the EU and the Euro-fanatics would dissemble, time-waste, prevaricate (add your odd description) and generally hope to wear down the negotiators to maintain the status quo as long as possible, then claim we'd all changed our minds. The weariness has been achieved.

    All very predictable. The EU is bureaucratic and never in a hurry, but acutely aware that the UK leaving will destabilise it.

    There was no UK ready-made plan because Cameron prevented the CS from having one prepared, even in outline. The EU was never in a hurry to negotiate, and transition periods will always be time-wasting procedures. Mrs May's first priority was to keep the Tory party intact in the short-term. Labour's first priority was to gain power. The so-called will of the people was well down the list, if even on it.

    Time now to move on to the final stages. A deal which basically guarantees more delay. Deadlock Parliament (which looks likely) and in desperation, reluctantly decide on another referendum to 'decide' the issue, hoping enough of the 'fed-up' will switch to secure a narrow victory. Celebrate a final decision and vow never to allow another referendum again. Hope the outrage will gradually dissipate.

    This is what some of us feared all along. You didn't have to be Nostradamus. At least being cynical to start with means you're never going to be disappointed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    With apologies to the sensible 'Leavers' I now would prefer a second referendum in which I'd repeat my Remain vote and be moderately confident of victory. for me the antics of the 'ultras' have negated my willingness to accept the original result.


    I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
    You cain’t always get what you want....
    That is not the point. Remainers didn’t get what they wanted in the referendum and look how badly they have behaved since - like spoilt brats.

    The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
    Have you read the deal? It does exactly that.
    How does it actually gives back control of those. It says nothing about immigration, our trading laws are determined by Brussels with us having g no say; trade isn’t mentioned so the issue of paying for trade isn’t discussed let alone raised, and we are faced with being in a customs union which,together with the EU determining our trading laws, effectively rules out our ability to conclude any trade deals on our own.
    Well tough, the reality of the modern global economy is that common rules need to be followed between countries. It would of course far more preferably to have kept the status that meant we actually had a say in them.
    Don’t know much about the economy then do you. Exporters always have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That is as true for U.K. companies exporting to the EU under Singke Marketrukes as it is for U.K. exporters selling to the US under WTO rules.

    It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.
    So you want to hamstring part of the other 20% when we have a horrendous balance of payment deficit.
    Errm.. OK.
    How does that follow? All exporters have to meet the requirements of their export markets. That does not mean domestic suppliers have to do so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Roger said:

    Interesting but not surprising. Though I now have quite a respect for Mrs May's qualities appointing Davis Johnson and Fox showed a reckless lack of judgement
    Plenty of people agreed with you on that when they were first appointed, even leavers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited November 2018
    Mr. kle4, not a stupid demand if you're playing for time, hoping May will be toppled without you having to either support or oppose her (and thereby annoy one side or the other).

    Edited extra bit: got to go out for a bit. Will be interesting to see what drama will have occurred by this afternoon.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    His demand could well have been that Robbins gets out of the way.

    After Raab was deceived it's only fair.
  • Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    With apologies to the sensible 'Leavers' I now would prefer a second referendum in which I'd repeat my Remain vote and be moderately confident of victory. for me the antics of the 'ultras' have negated my willingness to accept the original result.


    I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
    You cain’t always get what you want....
    That is not the point. Remainers didn’t get what they wanted in the referendum and look how badly they have behaved since - like spoilt brats.

    The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
    Have you read the deal? It does exactly that.
    How does it actually gives back control of those. It says nothing about immigration, our trading laws are determined by Brussels with us having g no say; trade isn’t mentioned so the issue of paying for trade isn’t discussed let alone raised, and we are faced with being in a customs union which,together with the EU determining our trading laws, effectively rules out our ability to conclude any trade deals on our own.
    Well tough, the reality of the modern global economy is that common rules need to be followed between countries. It would of course far more preferably to have kept the status that meant we actually had a say in them.
    Don’t know much about the economy then do you. Exporters always have to comply with the trade regs of the country to whom they export. That is as true for U.K. companies exporting to the EU under Singke Marketrukes as it is for U.K. exporters selling to the US under WTO rules.

    It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.
    So you want to hamstring part of the other 20% when we have a horrendous balance of payment deficit.
    Errm.. OK.
    How is hamstringing the 20%. Nothing changes for them but it could potentially free up a lot of our domestic economy from costly compliance with EU regs to spend time and money more productively.
  • kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
  • kle4 said:

    JRM has been all mouth and no trousers for a long time but yesterday, finally, he did actually act. Mrs May doesn’t have a monopoly on brains, has produced a dire Brexit that is actually worse than staying in the EU and has fundamentally misunderstood why Leave won. To deliver such an cataclysmic climb down as her Brexit deal, she has sacriced the Gov’s entire domestic policy agenda which is an abdication of good government.

    JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.

    It will say things about both because there was no sensible reason he had not already sent in a letter as he and his cohort were furious about the plan already yet were pretending that could change without May going. It wasn't polite it was silly. I'm very glad he has finally acted as if he thinks the deal is that bad he should vote against her.

    I agree that they have left it very late - too late, actually.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JRM has been all mouth and no trousers for a long time but yesterday, finally, he did actually act. Mrs May doesn’t have a monopoly on brains, has produced a dire Brexit that is actually worse than staying in the EU and has fundamentally misunderstood why Leave won. To deliver such an cataclysmic climb down as her Brexit deal, she has sacriced the Gov’s entire domestic policy agenda which is an abdication of good government.

    JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.

    Leave won because Northern Ireland doesn't want to be connected economically with the Republic?
    Leave win because it secured 52% of the votes compared to Remain’s 48%.
    And Mrs May does not understand that?

    Well, it's a view.

    How does her deal deliver anything that reflects why voted Leave ? It doesn’t give us control of anything - not our money, not our borders, and not our laws let alone anything else.
    I thought that it would:
    - stop us paying for the CAP.
    - stop freedom of movement.
    I think in all circumstances we have to follow regulations in the single market if we want to sell into the single market, so I don't see any scenario - except some sort of self-defeating trade war - where we do not have to follow EU law to some extent.

    Your side have won. My side lost. Rejoice?
    We do come out the CAP but as trade hasn’t been discussed yet, then we don’t know whether we’ll have to pay towards further trade as countries like Norway currently do. Where, in May’s deal is immigration dealt with ?
    In the outline on the future deal, noting that the four pillars of the single market are goods, services, capital and labour, it says on each in turn:

    Goods - "Comprehensive arrangements creating a free trade area.."
    Services - "Ambitious, comprehensive.."
    Capital - "Provisions to enable free movement of capital.."
    Labour - "Arrangements on temporary entry and stay of natural persons for business purposes in defined areas."

    There is the cherry-picking the EU said they would never allow. What more can you expect?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    The current BBC news online headline is :" May defiant as Gove considers quitting."

    Strength and weakness in one headline: defiance is a sign of strength (or perceived strength), and contrasts with 'considers', which is weak, an inaction.

    It'd have been easy to write a headline that gave an opposite impression.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Jonathan said:

    May has impressive resilience, but remains a lousy politician. She still takes the line ‘I am right’ and seems to think that fact alone will convince others to back her.

    She is either relying on the people opposing her deal to fragment because they oppose for contradictory reasons and so if she holds it together she wins. Or you totally misunderstand her and she knows it might not work and is doing her best to ensure they still have to officially reject the plan rather than get a cop out where it is pulled.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    The lack of a reshuffle to fill the two vacant positions in the cabinet is probably indicative of something or other.

    Even though I loathe May and her particular brand of High Anglican, WI, Heathite, Sunday Express toryism I do have an iota of sympathy for her in her desperate, albeit self-inflicted, position.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    On our side we had Robbins on theirs Selmayr, what could possibly have gone wrong?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:

    Twitter speculation that the 48 letters are in

    Says the last 6 months. But frankly it would be a farce if they weren't finally in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    It's a nonsense, the deal is the deal. As Brexit Sec he could negotiate again with the EU after we're out. Perhaps May should leave the position vacant for the moment as there isn't anything to do there till March 29th now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2018

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    Good point. Cons are determined at every stage to give Labour leverage and attack lines.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Dura_Ace said:



    Curious how a couple of hardcore Brexiteers with an uber-aggressive posting style have popped up since archer was banned.

    This guy lacks Archer's monomaniacal clarity.

    I'm enjoying these Westminster shenanigans enormously,

    "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive
    But to be a bitter remainer was very heaven."
    Wordsworth
    I'm glad someone is. I'm having a breakdown.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Dura_Ace said:

    The lack of a reshuffle to fill the two vacant positions in the cabinet is probably indicative of something or other.

    Even though I loathe May and her particular brand of High Anglican, WI, Heathite, Sunday Express toryism I do have an iota of sympathy for her in her desperate, albeit self-inflicted, position.

    Hey, leave us High Anglicans out of it!

    (I live a couple of miles from one of the young Theresa’s parishes. Fair to say not many of my fellow churchgoers vote for her party.)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    Good point. Cons are determined at every stage to give Labour leverage and attack lines.
    Irrelevant at the moment - nobody is paying attention to Labour.

  • kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.

    No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    TGOHF said:

    OchEye said:

    Most of politics is about relationships and respect. Unfortunately, TMay has never really built relationships within her party and particularly her cabinet, result? Having sent Olly Robbins off to Brussels to negotiate the leaving, with two appointed cabinet ministers to twiddle their thumbs completely outside the box, then presents the "Final Document" as all her own work.

    Davis was a waste of space and his reputation has been severely damaged, but Raab was clever enough but appointed too late, but from the beginning, she appointed the wrong people into the wrong positions for the wrong reasons - and the whole of the Westminster Bubble knows it.

    She has lost her own party, and the respect due to a PM, by everyone else. Whatever she came up with was always going to be destroyed.

    Spot on Och Eye - add in her bizarre decision to make and keep the clot Hammond as CoTE when every budget turns to a turd and there should be little sympathy for her when she gets the boot.
    Wasn't she widely predicted to ditch Hammond prior to the GE result?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    Not completely since it might mean minor changes are possibly only so labour could not substantively change as they claim.

    But he has massively undermined the argument since if he thinks it can be changed why shouldn't they try.

    That report is one reason I'm sure he'll quit - he's revealed he doesn't support the draft, not merely that he is not happy with parts of it, so his position is untenable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    Good point. Cons are determined at every stage to give Labour leverage and attack lines.
    Irrelevant at the moment - nobody is paying attention to Labour.

    You're kidding, right? Every Theresa May pronouncement of these past 24 hours has been aimed directly at the Labour Party MPs. Even her silky-voiced entreaty non-press conference was addressed to them.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Also, as a country we should back May's deal. It's the only deal in town, even though it's obviously inferior to remaining in the EU.

    The default to this deal is a hard Brexit. I wish the default was the status-quo (remaining in the EU) but sadly it isn't.

    For goodness sake only 32% back No Deal in Sky's poll yesterday, that is even less popular than the poll tax.

    The default without this deal will end up being Remain, the question then is just when not if
    HYUFD - the legal default is No deal. Politics needs to happen for that to change in any direction.

    We’re not led by sentient opinion polls.
    We now have a Deal. If May cannot get her Deal through Parliament it will now likely be EUref2, perhaps even called by May herself.


    No Deal now means riots on the streets with less than a third support for it that make the poll tax riots look like a picnic and the collapse of the £, the stock exchange and the economy. I repeat No Deal means it is a question of when not if we stay in the EU before next March or we rejoin the EEA with full single market and customs union membership after

    Brexiteers better realise this Deal is the best Brexit they will get
    But they are not making rational, evidence-based judgments. Many of them are cultists, just as blinkered and fanatical (perhaps more so) as Corbyn cultists. Brexit is the revealed truth and sullying it with compromises such as the May deal is sacrilege.

    And many of the less devoted followers revel in opposition, grievance, and victimhood. They don't really care if Brexit collapses, they will go back to their comfort zone and spend the rest of their lives blaming the EU for everything that is wrong in the world. Much easier than taking responsibility for the unholy mess they have created.
    Yes, Farage is warming up his UKIP leader return speech now
    I'm sure he is. The collapse of Brexit is the only thing that could save UKIP from oblivion. And Farage needs a platform and salary, both of which will go if he loses his MEP position.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    Alistair said:

    If I had 1 pound every time I was told 48 letters were deffo almost in I'd have a good sight more than 48 quid.

    It makes me wonder if Graham Brady is really a CCHQ sleeper (I'm sure he isn't).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    geoffw said:

    On our side we had Robbins on theirs Selmayr, what could possibly have gone wrong?

    Blaming the officials is an excusing tactic we should leave to the politicians.
  • I think Joe Root may have won the Test with this innings, 106 off 126 balls, a fine attacking innings.

    Perhaps May should take more inspiration from Root than from Boycott's bore them all to death approach. Root seems to be a more popular captain than Boycott too.
  • Morning all,

    Is today, the day of the 48?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    Not completely since it might mean minor changes are possibly only so labour could not substantively change as they claim.

    But he has massively undermined the argument since if he thinks it can be changed why shouldn't they try.

    That report is one reason I'm sure he'll quit - he's revealed he doesn't support the draft, not merely that he is not happy with parts of it, so his position is untenable.
    Except he has just said he is staying put at Defra.... if this is true
    https://order-order.com/2018/11/16/gove-not-resigning/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.

    No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
    That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
  • I suspect this move by ERG to vnoc TM is another example of their lack of thinking things through.

    TM wins, she brings back the deal, the deal is voted down, she then confirms a second referendum and there is nothing they can do to stop her
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Translation: May is going to win the VONC handily
  • Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.

    No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
    That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
    Barnier is a middle manager. Merkel, she say NEIN
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018

    Alistair said:

    If I had 1 pound every time I was told 48 letters were deffo almost in I'd have a good sight more than 48 quid.

    It makes me wonder if Graham Brady is really a CCHQ sleeper (I'm sure he isn't).
    He's the gatekeeper, and doing a good job. Personally I think he'll vote in favour of May though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:
    Pretty feeble when 'minister not quitting' is breaking news.

    Now, how are Hunt, Javid and co going out to sell this deal today? Sitting back and letting the PM do it all won't do.
  • Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.

    No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
    That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
    That was Sky 's Europe report in the last 45 minutes
  • If there is a VoNC and she loses, then surely we are looking at No Deal? The clock will have run out.
  • Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    That has been confirmed by the Austrian leader this morning and Merkel last night.

    No more negotiation, this deal or no deal
    That is not confirmed. Barnier explicitly left it open in his press conference.
    That was Sky 's Europe report in the last 45 minutes
    It's not Barnier, it's everyone else that won't accept it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    philiph said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One thing I missed in all yesterdays hubbub - Did Theresa ever manage to fill the vacant Brexit and Work and Pensions jobs? Or are those seats still empty in the Cabinet?

    Not yet.

    According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
    which was a stupid demand. Even if it can be how substantive could it be? Because the problems people have with it aren't solved by tweaks.

    Politically, Gove's renegotiation demand also gives the lie to the Conservatives' attack line that the deal is set in stone and could not be renegotiated by Labour.
    Not completely since it might mean minor changes are possibly only so labour could not substantively change as they claim.

    But he has massively undermined the argument since if he thinks it can be changed why shouldn't they try.

    That report is one reason I'm sure he'll quit - he's revealed he doesn't support the draft, not merely that he is not happy with parts of it, so his position is untenable.
    Except he has just said he is staying put at Defra.... if this is true
    https://order-order.com/2018/11/16/gove-not-resigning/
    Yes, my timing is truly horrendous.

    Fortunately I don't let being wrong a lot slow me down. I share that trait with May and Corbyn.
  • I suspect this move by ERG to vnoc TM is another example of their lack of thinking things through.

    TM wins, she brings back the deal, the deal is voted down, she then confirms a second referendum and there is nothing they can do to stop her

    Tom Watson emphasising this morning, that 2nd vote is an option.
  • If there is a VoNC and she loses, then surely we are looking at No Deal? The clock will have run out.

    Who the f*** knows to be honest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2018
    What have things come to when the headline is that a minister is not resigning.

    Reminds me of the old HMF sober/drunk joke (which in effect had one orderly officer reporting in the logs that another officer was drunk on duty; when it was the other officers turn at orderly officer he reported that the first officer was sober on duty...)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    If there is a VoNC and she loses, then surely we are looking at No Deal? The clock will have run out.

    If she loses the VONC (Which quite obviously kills the deal), after crying over my betfair losses I'll get on the nauseating "People's vote" bandwagon.
  • If there is a VoNC and she loses, then surely we are looking at No Deal? The clock will have run out.

    If she loses I cannot predict but the utter horror of no deal within the HOC is likely to see it prevented
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    If there is a VoNC and she loses, then surely we are looking at No Deal? The clock will have run out.

    So she will argue. Some in her party want that. Others take the labour approach of 'something would work out'. Reassuring.
This discussion has been closed.