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Yes, I think that's fair. I took the Remainers @Recidivist was talking about upthread to be less floating-votey than that. I think the basic positioning of controlling immigration without blowing up the economy is pretty much where the voters are, which is why the Leave campaign ran on it.OblitusSumMe said:
I think nearly half of the Remain vote was from people strongly anti-immigration, but sufficiently worried by the economy to vote reluctantly to stay in. Obviously it's the other half who have gone marching, but if I'm right then May's deal is a compromise fit for public opinion.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think anyone's saying it's the be all and end all, but having experience with the arbitrary restrictions, time-wasting and sheer destructive box-ticking idiocy of a developed country's visa process (not any more, I have permanent residency now, but there's always a risk it will change and I get a bit nervous about pension rights etc) it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.Pulpstar said:
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.edmundintokyo said:
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.Recidivist said:This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.0 -
"a firm believer in free trade, Irish Home Rule and the improvement of social conditions."Big_G_NorthWales said:Campbell Bannerman on Sky saying the letters are in and while TM is a very decent hard working person but the deal is a disgrace and we need a leader to take the country into a no deal exit.
At last someone has confirmed ERG are determined to collapse our economy0 -
Well the government have ballsed up the negotiation no doubt about that. Now this is the result unfortunately.JosiasJessop said:
Don't put words into my mouth. I'm talking about the effect a no-deal could well have on many people, and the way it will be much more directly harmful than the rather esoteric consequences of EU membership.Xenon said:
So you'd happily give up independence for a few quid because it's "complicated".JosiasJessop said:
Independence is a rather complicated concept, especially in the modern world where few, if any, countries are truly independent.Xenon said:
Of course it matters.JosiasJessop said:
That 'hit to the economy' might be my wife's job. Or friends' jobs. It may cost people their livelihoods and homes.Xenon said:
So they were prepared to give up our sovereignty forever because big business were worried about a short term hit to the economy.JosiasJessop said:
Look no further than industry and investment. Everyone knows a no-deal would be a hard hit to the economy, in the short term at least, and angling for a no-deal whilst hoping for a deal would cause unnecessary harm to the economy by causing companies to reduce investment.Xenon said:
If that really is the case, can anyone explain to me their thinking behind not bothering to prepare?Benpointer said:
They are that crap.Xenon said:Right having thought about this all more, I don't think there's any chance the government haven't been preparing for no deal. It would be too stupid and negligent if they didn't and while I think they are crap I don't think they're that crap.
I think they need to say they haven't in order to sell this deal as the only possible option.
I don't understand it, not only could it cause massive chaos, but it meant the EU could offer us any old rubbish entirely on their terms and we'd have to accept.
It must have been deliberate.
Not that hardcore Brexiteers care about unnecessary harm to the economy ...
Sums up the lot of them.
It hurts real people.
And that's why it matters.
But so does our independence. People paid for it in the past with their blood, this might be the only chance of regaining ours without the same.
A person's wage packet is a very simple and direct concept, especially when it is reduced or removed.
Hence to most individuals the latter matters much more than the former. As I recall this played a part in the Scottish Indy referendum.
BTW, your last line is overwrought stupidity.
At least you're honest I suppose.0 -
11.52: The UK Government has applied to the country’s highest court for permission to appeal over a cross-party legal challenge on Brexit, the Press Association reports. It has applied to the supreme court seeking permission to appeal against a court ruling to ask the European court if the UK can unilaterally revoke its article 50 request to leave the European Union.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/16/brexit-deal-may-fights-for-survival-as-tory-civil-war-looms-politics-live
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It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.0
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Just needs one last push to get Corbyn into No 10, and then the job will be complete.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
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Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
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My, my, the bakers oven has been busy...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Mr Bun the BakerScrapheap_as_was said:
Name names then Mr Baker ...rottenborough said:
Mrs Bun the Baker's Wife
Master Bun the Baker's Son
Miss Bun the Baker's Daughter0 -
So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.0
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Steve Baker saying that they've gone over 48 ... and they're still coming.0
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Are you in favour of a deal, just not this deal, or are you a no-dealer?Xenon said:Well the government have ballsed up the negotiation no doubt about that. Now this is the result unfortunately.
If you are in favour of a different sort of deal, what do you think we could realistically have got?0 -
Which will go first, Greig or the paper edition?GIN1138 said:
As much abuse as Dacre used to get he was a formidable editor because he was in touch with his readership.El_Capitano said:The media correspondent at BuzzFeed news reckons that, contrary to suggestions on here a couple of times, Daily Mail print circulation is down since Greig took over:
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1063364109725564928
It's down YoY too.
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
I can't see Greig lasting more than a year or so to be honest...0 -
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.0 -
I thought you'd relinquished your British citizenship and become Johnny Foreigner?Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
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Have a look at Helena Lee's Twitter feed. A new witness saw her drive off alone. Could mean that the Peterborough by election might tbe more likely to take place.0
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Liam Fox has full confidence in PM as does Michael Gove0
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And yet...Mysticrose said:Steve Baker saying that they've gone over 48 ... and they're still coming.
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https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.0 -
To poll that you'd need several parallel universes so you could send TMay off to negotiate all the different possible versions and see which one the voters hated least. But given the loveliness of the promises and the complexity of actual existence it was always obvious people weren't going to like the smell coming out of the box when they opened it.MarqueeMark said:
Yet the initial polling says otherwise.OblitusSumMe said:
I think nearly half of the Remain vote was from people strongly anti-immigration, but sufficiently worried by the economy to vote reluctantly to stay in. Obviously it's the other half who have gone marching, but if I'm right then May's deal is a compromise fit for public opinion.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think anyone's saying it's the be all and end all, but having experience with the arbitrary restrictions, time-wasting and sheer destructive box-ticking idiocy of a developed country's visa process (not any more, I have permanent residency now, but there's always a risk it will change and I get a bit nervous about pension rights etc) it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.Pulpstar said:
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.edmundintokyo said:
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.Recidivist said:This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.0 -
Failed state? Calm down and look at some actual failed states. We're in a big mess, that's not the same thing.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
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I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
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Boris put it rather succinctly I seem to recall.dixiedean said:
It has been obvious for some time. The only surprise is that it has taken so long to sink in.Big_G_NorthWales said:Campbell Bannerman on Sky saying the letters are in and while TM is a very decent hard working person but the deal is a disgrace and we need a leader to take the country into a no deal exit.
At last someone has confirmed ERG are determined to collapse our economy0 -
No that's a very unfair remark and the kind of thing which shows how out of touch some remainers are with the mood of many people. 52% of this country voted to Leave. The real problem is that we didn't know precisely what we voted for and there was NO contingency on that victory. None. At all.JosiasJessop said:
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.
Cameron.0 -
>
Politically it's hard to see anything but. Like an Italy but without the sun or the food.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down and look at some actual failed states. We're in a big mess, that's not the same thing.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
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He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
So, they'd rather not know this information?Richard_Nabavi said:11.52: The UK Government has applied to the country’s highest court for permission to appeal over a cross-party legal challenge on Brexit, the Press Association reports. It has applied to the supreme court seeking permission to appeal against a court ruling to ask the European court if the UK can unilaterally revoke its article 50 request to leave the European Union.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/16/brexit-deal-may-fights-for-survival-as-tory-civil-war-looms-politics-live0 -
She will be gone by next week thenBig_G_NorthWales said:Liam Fox has full confidence in PM as does Michael Gove
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Except the UK has played a great hand and got a good deal with most of the benefits of Remain and most of the control of Leave.Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.
It is just the selfish politically partisan MPs won't back it.0 -
The problem with the young is they don't have the generally have the same historical context of those who've lived a bit longer.edmundintokyo said:it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
I lived, studied and worked in two different European countries for 15 months a couple of years before the Single Market and FOM came into being.
There was no huge bureaucracy then, and there will be no huge barriers to it happening in the future. We will probably pay for access in terms of some programmes - but so be it.
We are close friends and allies with European nations - and have been trading, living, working and marrying in each others territories for 2 thousand years. The 40 years of our EU membership is but a blip n that context.0 -
Had hoped that a Liam Fox Off headline would appear today.Big_G_NorthWales said:Liam Fox has full confidence in PM as does Michael Gove
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Start from a position of no deal, ensure the planes are kept in the air and we can at least trade with the EU under WTO rules if necessary.JosiasJessop said:
Are you in favour of a deal, just not this deal, or are you a no-dealer?Xenon said:Well the government have ballsed up the negotiation no doubt about that. Now this is the result unfortunately.
If you are in favour of a different sort of deal, what do you think we could realistically have got?
Then work from there and try to get as much as we can agreed.0 -
It seemed to all kick off in 2014 with the Scottish referendum and Cameron's panic-stricken dash "up north" after *that* YouGov poll.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
I think when people saw the power they had to troll their politicians they kinda liked it... 0 -
Why put their reputations for loyalty at risk, when others are going to get rid of TMay anyway?TheValiant said:
At least three on that list would help government if they actually did resign.tlg86 said:More interesting is who isn't on this list...
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/10633800772270080000 -
But the No-Deal Derringer pointed at their crotch under the table might have made them fold...Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.0 -
Greig. The paper edition is very profitable and will remain so for a long while. Midmarket papers are one of the most profitable advertising markets there is.OchEye said:
Which will go first, Greig or the paper edition?GIN1138 said:
As much abuse as Dacre used to get he was a formidable editor because he was in touch with his readership.El_Capitano said:The media correspondent at BuzzFeed news reckons that, contrary to suggestions on here a couple of times, Daily Mail print circulation is down since Greig took over:
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1063364109725564928
It's down YoY too.
That said, I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions that it's necessarily a result of the Brexit stance. The thing that struck me (as a former magazine editor) about the Mail's splash yesterday was not so much the volte face on Brexit, but how bad the page layout was - a big slab of ink at the top, a wordy story at the bottom, and nothing at all to lighten the mood. Tabloid papers are entertainment and it wasn't a very entertaining page.
I can't see Greig lasting more than a year or so to be honest...0 -
The ERGers are about 40 in number. If this deal goes down the influence of the Labour Party will be 80% of the votes.JosiasJessop said:
Nah. As we're seeing today, the real evil is in the UKIP-strand of the Conservative Party, currently in the form of the ERG'ers.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
Running a party in the presence of these insane bastards is impossible.0 -
+1Theo said:
Except the UK has played a great hand and got a good deal with most of the benefits of Remain and most of the control of Leave.Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.
It is just the selfish politically partisan MPs won't back it.0 -
States with problems, even huge ones, does not equal being a failed state. That kind of hyperbole helps avoid tacking problems, because people will see we are not a failed state and presume other warnings of problems are nonsense too, even when they are not. For the same thing in reverse look at some of the ERG comments over the past few days.matt said:>
Politically it's hard to see anything but. Like an Italy but without the sun or the food.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down and look at some actual failed states. We're in a big mess, that's not the same thing.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
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And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid0 -
I don't think this claim is true, nor is there evidence to support it. Many of us were uneasy about the level of immigration and unhappy about the way it was being dealt with, but do understand the point of it all and were sad that the government failed so miserably to make the case for it. What's been alarming is the amount of hypocrisy among those on the right who continually railed against immigration but benefited from it immensely. I'm glad to say that quite a lot of them now see the folly of their position.OblitusSumMe said:
I think nearly half of the Remain vote was from people strongly anti-immigration, but sufficiently worried by the economy to vote reluctantly to stay in. Obviously it's the other half who have gone marching, but if I'm right then May's deal is a compromise fit for public opinion.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think anyone's saying it's the be all and end all, but having experience with the arbitrary restrictions, time-wasting and sheer destructive box-ticking idiocy of a developed country's visa process (not any more, I have permanent residency now, but there's always a risk it will change and I get a bit nervous about pension rights etc) it's very clear to me what young British people are losing.Pulpstar said:
You're in Japan, where we certainly have no "free movement" with though - so it isn't the be all and end all even to you.edmundintokyo said:
It's certainly not the Remainers' ideal deal, we generally care much more about our own free movement rights, and definitely aren't at all keen on damaging the economy to lose them.Recidivist said:This isn't just a good deal. It's the remainers' ideal deal. We get to stay in close alignment with the EU and we can't get out of the Customs Union. So it avoids damage to the economy. It keeps us in the European market. And it's a gift to anyone who wants to argue for rejoining. After all, we have lost our say in the EU with no corresponding increased freedom of action. It is literally just like staying but choosing not to send any MEPs or commissioners over to represent our interests.
However, we generally weren't holding out much hope there, since it was the overwhelmingly dominant message of the Leave campaign, and also TMay hates freedom.
Obviously I don't speak for all Remain supporters, but I bet if you showed up at one of the demos and asked people what aspect of the EU they most wanted to keep, that's what you'd hear the most.
The positive thing I think you can say about TMay's deal is that it's as close as you can imagine to a compromise between the Leave campaign's promises, weighted by how much they talked about them, and reality. But it's optimised for their goals, not ours.0 -
Not sure about that, because of the timing. The leadership contest is now a proxy for whether MPs try to get a deal with the EU, rather than about her election-winning talents or lack thereof.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
The interesting point here is that the ERG would be doing this if they thought the deal was doomed anyway. Unless they are just smashing up the party and country for the fun of it, which admittedly does look a rather good fit to the facts.0 -
Setting fire to the economy is also sub-optimal for reelection and that seems to be the state-of-the art thinking of the anti-TMay candidates, so even if they really think she's a certain election loser it still seems worth gambling that they can get through Brexit and dispose of her later.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
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Hmm. Given we've ended up with such unusual cards, are we sure a royal flush is good here, because the tweet doesn't confirm the two of us were playing poker in the first place.Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.0 -
Katya will be accused of being a TM loyalistrottenborough said:0 -
There is no route to a general election under the FTPA unless or until the Conservatives decide to vote for one.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
And I can't see a situation in which that is the preferable option for them.
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Are the DUP serious in their claims to no longer being willing to prop up May?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
If they are then in the interests of short term survival that will be a factor in peoples decision making possibly?0 -
This is certainly the worst political crisis in the U.K. since the early 20th century. And the worst in any western country since 1945. Only the Algerian crisis and fall of the fourth republic in France comes close in terms of national trauma.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
Perhaps they have traversed the political circle and have arrived at Marx's belief that the system needs to be torn down and then rebuilt (or it might have been Lenin, but they are both dead commies so it probably does not matter)Richard_Nabavi said:Unless [the ERG] are just smashing up the party and country for the fun of it, which admittedly does look a rather good fit to the facts.
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Also bear in mind that in reality she can be forced to resign at any time if enough cabinet ministers aand MPs demand it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not sure about that, because of the timing. The leadership contest is now a proxy for whether MPs try to get a deal with the EU, rather than about her election-winning talents or lack thereof.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
The interesting point here is that the ERG would be doing this if they thought the deal was doomed anyway. Unless they are just smashing up the party and country for the fun of it, which admittedly does look a rather good fit to the facts.0 -
Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.0 -
Not true. Not saying it's likely, but if the DUP pull the plug you almost certainly get a new election.RobinWiggs said:
There is no route to a general election under the FTPA unless or until the Conservatives decide to vote for one.0 -
Blair tries to reach out to purist Brexiteers in Telegraph. Join the call for 2nd vote.
"I make an appeal to the true Brexiteers. You can’t get what you want through this Parliament. You and I share the view: if leave, leave; if stay, stay. But not half-in half-out enduring perpetual purgatory.
It’s time to make common cause."0 -
Yep. Voting down thus deal will result in a cliff edge Brexit with Corbyn in power. And a global recession is just round the corner. The triple whammy will cause poverty for millions.edmundintokyo said:
Setting fire to the economy is also sub-optimal for reelection and that seems to be the state-of-the art thinking of the anti-TMay candidates, so even if they really think she's a certain election loser it still seems worth gambling that they can get through Brexit and dispose of her later.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
ERGers and Labourites don't care.0 -
It is possible to do brilliant and terrible things in the same career. McCartney wrote both a A Day in the Life and that shit with the frogs.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
0 -
Yes - Provided the question is between May's deal and a WTO deal. That we are leaving was decided at the last referendum.rottenborough said:Blair tries to reach out to purist Brexiteers in Telegraph. Join the call for 2nd vote.
"I make an appeal to the true Brexiteers. You can’t get what you want through this Parliament. You and I share the view: if leave, leave; if stay, stay. But not half-in half-out enduring perpetual purgatory.
It’s time to make common cause."0 -
Disaster Capitalism and Disaster Socialism, walking arm-in-arm through the lobbiesTheo said:
Yep. Voting down thus deal will result in a cliff edge Brexit with Corbyn in power. And a global recession is just round the corner. The triple whammy will cause poverty for millions.edmundintokyo said:
Setting fire to the economy is also sub-optimal for reelection and that seems to be the state-of-the art thinking of the anti-TMay candidates, so even if they really think she's a certain election loser it still seems worth gambling that they can get through Brexit and dispose of her later.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
ERGers and Labourites don't care.0 -
So Gove backs May and her Deal as does fellow Cabinet Leaver Liam Fox.
Is Gove now Michael Collins to Boris or Mogg's De Valera?0 -
She is woeful, but ironically the one thing she has done well - negotiating a decent Brexit against the odds - is the reason she now might not survive. A funny old world, indeed.MarqueeMark said:Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.0 -
Did you read my comment.MarqueeMark said:
Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.
She will win a vnoc and that puts her in place for 12 months including a possible GE
That is just plain daft0 -
Extremists on both sides trying to repudiate the sensible middle ground.rottenborough said:Blair tries to reach out to purist Brexiteers in Telegraph. Join the call for 2nd vote.
"I make an appeal to the true Brexiteers. You can’t get what you want through this Parliament. You and I share the view: if leave, leave; if stay, stay. But not half-in half-out enduring perpetual purgatory.
It’s time to make common cause."0 -
A Day in the Life is not that bad.Dura_Ace said:
It is possible to do brilliant and terrible things in the same career. McCartney wrote both a A Day in the Life and that shit with the frogs.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
0 -
Perfidy may very well count as successful diplomacy, what's happening now is neither. Henceforth we shall be known as 'bit shit, doesn't know its arse from its elbow Albion'.John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
Plus partisan unprincipled behaviour by Labour SNP etc.Theo said:
Extremists on both sides trying to repudiate the sensible middle ground.rottenborough said:Blair tries to reach out to purist Brexiteers in Telegraph. Join the call for 2nd vote.
"I make an appeal to the true Brexiteers. You can’t get what you want through this Parliament. You and I share the view: if leave, leave; if stay, stay. But not half-in half-out enduring perpetual purgatory.
It’s time to make common cause."0 -
rottenborough said:
Blair tries to reach out to purist Brexiteers in Telegraph. Join the call for 2nd vote.
"I make an appeal to the true Brexiteers. You can’t get what you want through this Parliament. You and I share the view: if leave, leave; if stay, stay. But not half-in half-out enduring perpetual purgatory.
It’s time to make common cause."
The comments underneath are the best part! 0 -
Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
Playing Happy Families?kle4 said:
Hmm. Given we've ended up with such unusual cards, are we sure a royal flush is good here, because the tweet doesn't confirm the two of us were playing poker in the first place.Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/803561287548600320YBarddCwsc said:I am not sure anyone could have done much better. Her position was very weak because of the narrow referendum win, and the fact that substantial parts of the country disagreed.
Whoever was going to play poker with the EU always had a piss-poor hand.0 -
Meh, the Dutch shelled London once. We got over it.Theuniondivvie said:
Perfidy may very well count as successful diplomacy, what's happening now isn't either. Henceforth we shall be known as 'bit shit, doesn't know its arse from its elbow Albion'.John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
But the North British have excelled themselves in arguing against the folly of ripping the country from an economic union.....Theuniondivvie said:
Perfidy may very well count as successful diplomacy, what's happening now isn't either. Henceforth we shall be known as 'bit shit, doesn't know its arse from its elbow Albion'.John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.0 -
Lennon wrote A Day in the Life, McCartney wrote the middle verseDura_Ace said:
It is possible to do brilliant and terrible things in the same career. McCartney wrote both a A Day in the Life and that shit with the frogs.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
McCartney wrote Blackbird, Yesterday, She's Leaving Home, Let it Be and Hey Jude.
Lennon's Beef Jerky is arguably worse than the Frog Song. I suppose at least Macca aimed his song at the children's market.0 -
Yes as every alternative leader polls worse than MayMarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
0 -
That's what Labour thought about Corbyn... and he's still there.NorthofStoke said:
Also bear in mind that in reality she can be forced to resign at any time if enough cabinet ministers aand MPs demand it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not sure about that, because of the timing. The leadership contest is now a proxy for whether MPs try to get a deal with the EU, rather than about her election-winning talents or lack thereof.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
The interesting point here is that the ERG would be doing this if they thought the deal was doomed anyway. Unless they are just smashing up the party and country for the fun of it, which admittedly does look a rather good fit to the facts.0 -
Lyrics of a Day in the Life were said to be by Lennon.Jonathan said:
A Day in the Life is not that bad.Dura_Ace said:
It is possible to do brilliant and terrible things in the same career. McCartney wrote both a A Day in the Life and that shit with the frogs.Mysticrose said:
Erm ... the architect of that Government is the man most responsible for the current chaos. David Cameron.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
0 -
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
If the Tories were smart they'd agree a deal with May where they stuck with her till the 29th March then elect a new leader thereafter. She'll deserve the rest after getting Brexit over the line quite frankly !0
-
GE seems increasingly likely next year. If this Agreement passes, DUP pulls the plug, GE. If it doesn't pass...well, it is difficult to see a non-GE route out of it. Remain/NoDeal referendum is the only other possibility.
Given that...VONC, which would probably cement May in place for a year, seems a sub-optimal route.
However, such is the tactical genius of the ERG.0 -
Because they know that the membership is currently cultish enough to re-elect him. Does not apply to any other parties.Lennon said:
That's what Labour thought about Corbyn... and he's still there.NorthofStoke said:
Also bear in mind that in reality she can be forced to resign at any time if enough cabinet ministers aand MPs demand it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not sure about that, because of the timing. The leadership contest is now a proxy for whether MPs try to get a deal with the EU, rather than about her election-winning talents or lack thereof.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
The interesting point here is that the ERG would be doing this if they thought the deal was doomed anyway. Unless they are just smashing up the party and country for the fun of it, which admittedly does look a rather good fit to the facts.0 -
Against the odds how? Total capitulation on the border issue was always a strategy guaranteed to succeedRichard_Nabavi said:
She is woeful, but ironically the one thing she has done well - negotiating a decent Brexit against the odds - is the reason she now might not survive. A funny old world, indeed.MarqueeMark said:Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.0 -
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
If she wins the VONC she might still step aside. There's precedent for that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did you read my comment.MarqueeMark said:
Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.
She will win a vnoc and that puts her in place for 12 months including a possible GE
That is just plain daft0 -
Ruth and her several dwarves were certainly arguing that re. Brexit at one point, fuck knows what their position is now.CarlottaVance said:
But the North British have excelled themselves in arguing against the folly of ripping the country from an economic union.....Theuniondivvie said:
Perfidy may very well count as successful diplomacy, what's happening now isn't either. Henceforth we shall be known as 'bit shit, doesn't know its arse from its elbow Albion'.John_M said:
I think you're conflating our political class and ordinary UK citizens. Westminster might be disappearing up its own orifice, but I don't see that we're any different than the surly yeomanry of yore. As for diplomatic excellence, we're not known as 'perfidious Albion' for nothing.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.
0 -
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
I think the problem with the ERGers is that they underestimate the power of leaving. Yes we'll still be in the customs union and yes there's another 4 years of being bummed by the ECJ, but we will have left. That break would still be a huge victory. Brexit will take 15 years to complete IMO, expecting it to be done by March of next year is completely stupid.0
-
Haven't you learnt by now. TM does not do stepping asideDadge said:
If she wins the VONC she might still step aside. There's precedent for that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did you read my comment.MarqueeMark said:
Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.
She will win a vnoc and that puts her in place for 12 months including a possible GE
That is just plain daft
The only time she would be in peril is if her cabinet abandon her and that seems less likely today0 -
Politicians had forgotten to be afraid of the electorate, unfortunately too many of them have short term memories, still....GIN1138 said:
It seemed to all kick off in 2014 with the Scottish referendum and Cameron's panic-stricken dash "up north" after *that* YouGov poll.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
I think when people saw the power they had to troll their politicians they kinda liked it...0 -
-
I think I've told this story before. If so please forgive me.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.
Let's just say that I know a retired senior civil servant who was among the last generation to negotiate international treaties before we joined the EEC. After the Brexit vote, he and former colleagues contacted the cabinet office to offer to come in to speak to their modern counterparts and pass on institutional knowledge before they died or were too gaga to be of help. Six month later they received a reply that their kind offer was not necessary as the large consultancies were being retained to train civil servants in how to do this.
Says it all really.0 -
Perhaps if the deal is defeated twice in the commons, that's the hill she will die on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Haven't you learnt by now. TM does not do stepping asideDadge said:
If she wins the VONC she might still step aside. There's precedent for that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did you read my comment.MarqueeMark said:
Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.
She will win a vnoc and that puts her in place for 12 months including a possible GE
That is just plain daft0 -
An actuary could tell you the problem for them with Brexit taking 15 years.MaxPB said:I think the problem with the ERGers is that they underestimate the power of leaving. Yes we'll still be in the customs union and yes there's another 4 years of being bummed by the ECJ, but we will have left. That break would still be a huge victory. Brexit will take 15 years to complete IMO, expecting it to be done by March of next year is completely stupid.
0 -
It would be good if you or he could share that information with Tim Shipman for his next book.ExiledInScotland said:
I think I've told this story before. If so please forgive me.Beverley_C said:
He is right in one sense. We have gone from a nation renowned for diplomacy to one that seems almost bi-polar and making huge policy blunders and, in politics, our main political parties are in paralysis and internal turmoil.kle4 said:
Failed state? Calm down.Dura_Ace said:It's amazing how quickly the UK has gone from the stability, prosperity and calm of the 2010-15 Con/LibDem coalition to being on the verge of a failed state. Well fucking done to all involved.
We are not who we were.
Let's just say that I know a retired senior civil servant who was among the last generation to negotiate international treaties before we joined the EEC. After the Brexit vote, he and former colleagues contacted the cabinet office to offer to come in to speak to their modern counterparts and pass on institutional knowledge before they died or were too gaga to be of help. Six month later they received a reply that their kind offer was not necessary as the large consultancies were being retained to train civil servants in how to do this.
Says it all really.0 -
We should be due an announcement on DEXEU SoS before long. My guess is that Liam Fox will get a joint DIT/DEXEU portfolio.0
-
Not with her, there isn'tDadge said:
If she wins the VONC she might still step aside. There's precedent for that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did you read my comment.MarqueeMark said:
Look, I went out and knocked on hundreds of doors and delivered thousands of leaflets to help get her a majority. But she has proved to be woeful, both of as the face of the Conservative Party and of UK plc.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that is the idiotic nonsense of ERG.MarqueeMark said:
I really think she won't win. The decision for Tory MPs becomes a single issue - if there is an early general election coming at us, as seems at least quite possible, can we risk having Theresa May leading us into it, having ballsed up one election and having ballsed up the Brexit agreement?ExiledInScotland said:So the 48 letters may well be in now. I think TM will win but the purpose is to show that there are sufficient ERG members who have gone over the top to prove that her deal cannot pass parliament. The end result is that she'll be gone anyway because I don't think the MPs will vote a motion of no confidence under the FTPA.
Vnoc now and she wins and we have a GE in 2019 she will lead the party into the election
And even I do not want that option so they need to stop being so stupid
Any FTSE company would have got rid long ago.
She will win a vnoc and that puts her in place for 12 months including a possible GE
That is just plain daft0 -
Rubbish she will try it again only this time threaten EUref2 if the Commons votes it down again.Pulpstar said:
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !
May has the hide of a rhino as she made clear yesterday and is digging in hard0 -
You forget her tin ear....Pulpstar said:
If her deal fails to make it through the commons (After two tries) then she'll announce her resignation I expect.HYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
No Deal won't happen, it will be EUref2 and Remain if the Deal is voted down I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:
Judging by the media the no deal option is becoming like the plague to more and more votersHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0 -
BBC news just had a couple of MP's on, predicting Cox or Fox for Brexit Minister - please let it be Cox!0
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williamglenn said:
An actuary could tell you the problem for them with Brexit taking 15 years.MaxPB said:I think the problem with the ERGers is that they underestimate the power of leaving. Yes we'll still be in the customs union and yes there's another 4 years of being bummed by the ECJ, but we will have left. That break would still be a huge victory. Brexit will take 15 years to complete IMO, expecting it to be done by March of next year is completely stupid.
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May has effectively been the DEXEU Sec of State since the start. Might as well formally recognise it.El_Capitano said:We should be due an announcement on DEXEU SoS before long. My guess is that Liam Fox will get a joint DIT/DEXEU portfolio.
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to call an EU Ref 2, she will need the support of HoC......will she get it?, a GE is more likelyHYUFD said:
It is increasingly likely May will call EUref2 rather than risk governing with a No Deal Brexit only 32% supported in the Sky poll yesterdayPulpstar said:Both the people's vote; and the ERG brigade think they're on the verge of complete victory ! But even if the ERG are right and we leave with no deal, what the f*ck do they expect to happen next. Public opinion is going to be something like 60-40 as the reality of no deal bites !
It'll be reaccession under Corbyn as the Tories are humiliated in the 2022 General Election, whereas taking May's deal - well Corbyn will just extend the transition whilst he's in power.
I think the ERG are right in the short term but long in the wrong term here !0
