politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

Seems pretty straightforward to me. It had been a chaotic day with plenty of resignations, even speculation that she would resign then and there or call for a GE. She held it to publicly reiterate that she is sticking to her position, in effect telling her opponents they have to actually take her down, not threaten to do it and expect her to fold.

I think she was just 24 hours late for the press conference she had planned to give yesterday (and I don't think she bothered to change the text in between).

Just a reminder BBC2 now programme on why BoJo is the best Foreign Secretary since Robin Cook.

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.

That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.

The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.

You mean the Raab who did not have a clue during the negotiations? The Raab who polling today shows is the last person British voters want negotiating Brexit, behind Boris, Mogg and even Corbyn while May is top?

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483?s=20

HYUFD said:

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.

That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.

The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.

You mean the Raab who did not have a clue during the negotiations? The Raab who polling today shows is the last person British voters want negotiating Brexit, behind Boris, Mogg and even Corbyn while May is top?

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483?s=20

I think you need to look at the preceding posts to which I was responding.

DavidL said:

So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

How quickly does the consigliere have to announce the dispatch after receiving the magic number of letters. Is he allowed to sit on it for a number of days?

HYUFD said:

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.

That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.

The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.

You mean the Raab who did not have a clue during the negotiations? The Raab who polling today shows is the last person British voters want negotiating Brexit, behind Boris, Mogg and even Corbyn while May is top?

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483?s=20

All well for Con tonight HYUFD?

Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 55s back No Deal). The Midlands and Wales, the South and over 55s also give the strongest backing to May's Deal


https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

DecrepitJohnL said:

rottenborough said:

Bloody good question of the day award...

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1063163059127152644

Theresa May was probably saved by there being two separate movements against her, causing would-be letter-writers to hold off until they saw if the ministerial resignations had done the trick. And now, if there are only 30 letters, why should Sir Bufton Tufton endanger his peerage by making it 31?

We clearly have no idea if it is 30, 39 or 47.5, but I'm guessing a few are waiting until tomorrow to either think on it or at least look like they are thinking on it.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063172743993192456

Gove will quit but he'll do it at a time that produces maximum carnage... He's a political troll.

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

Hello, this is Jacob on line one.

HYUFD said:

Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 50s back No Deal)

https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

Really not surprising. ERG have put me in remain if TM deal falls

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 50s back No Deal)

https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

Really not surprising. ERG have put me in remain if TM deal falls

Give over Big G. You've been remain all the way along.

Andrew said:

DavidL said:

I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

We seem to have gone backwards, apparently the current estimate is the number of letters is "in the 30s".

1930s, presumably?

HYUFD said:

Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 55s back No Deal). The Midlands and Wales, the South and over 55s also give the strongest backing to May's Deal


https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

How can you have a nationally representative sample of sky customers?

asjohnstone said:

If they don't get to 48 letters after this, is there any point to the ERG at all ?

No, and there never was.

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

The main silences are Hammond and Clark. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.

I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

ralphmalph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

The main silences are Hammond and Clarke. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.

Clarke has publically voiced support for the deal.

ralphmalph said:

Just a reminder BBC2 now programme on why BoJo is the best Foreign Secretary since Robin Cook.

'Inside the Foreign Office' interesting portrayal of diplomats and BoJo

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

He was full on this afternoon saying he will have to return to fight for his brexit

Casino_Royale said:

felix said:

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

You simply have to admire her guts and tenacity.

She’ll be shit at that, and give stock answers to every question that will wind people up, but at least she gets she has to engage and has worked out she needs the balls to try.

Can't wait for her answer to Ferrari's "Would you vote for Brexit now Primeminister".

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

He was full on this afternoon saying he will have to return to fight for his brexit

Must have missed it.

alex. said:

ralphmalph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

The main silences are Hammond and Clarke. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.

Clarke has publically voiced support for the deal.

You read too quick I meant Greg not Ken, but got the e on the end wrong.

Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

ralphmalph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

The main silences are Hammond and Clark. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.

They have been obtaining business approval with business leaders coming out openly in suppott

One thing I suppose problematic Brexit could do (beyond the short term) is create expansion at most British ports. I guess the reason Dover is so critical these days is that it is the shortest route to the continent, and the lack of Trade barriers means that there is little reason for most not to use it. I presume that most companies no deal plans involve switching to other less used ports and allowing the load to be shared more evenly. One reason why some of the direst warnings are possibly overblown. Just because Dover is currently the port of choice, doesn’t mean it is the only port available.

geoffw said:

While MPs drank red and white wine at the close of Cabinet, Mr Raab took Mr Smith to one side in a side room and announced his intention to go. He agreed to hold off resigning until yesterday morning to avoid overshadowing the Prime Minister's announcement.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/reconstruction-michael-gove-has-left-theresa-mays-future-hands/

p.s. "yesterday" is today

Chief Whip seems dazzlingly effective, I must say. He keeps getting damaging resignations done in such a way that they irretrievably damage the outgoing ministers.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

Rooney?

ralphmalph said:

alex. said:

ralphmalph said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

The main silences are Hammond and Clarke. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.

Clarke has publically voiced support for the deal.

You read too quick I meant Greg not Ken, but got the e on the end wrong.

That’s who I assumed you meant. If Ken’s voiced his support that’s a bit of a coup!

bigjohnowls said:

stodge said:

bigjohnowls said:

LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.

Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??

Eastbourne voted leave.

Alistair said:

So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

He is May's MVP, telling you :_)

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

They only talk to each other and that is gibberish

No, that's PB

Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.

I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

If he is, he hides it awfully well.

On the other hand TSE is clearly David Cameron.

Don't be silly. A good Muslim boy wouldn't do that to a pig.

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

They only talk to each other and that is gibberish

No, that's PB

Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.

I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

If he is, he hides it awfully well.

On the other hand TSE is clearly David Cameron.

Don't be silly. A good Muslim boy wouldn't do that to a pig.

I was going to say I can’t see the Aston ham united fan at a steps / venga boys concert....

USA soccer team is really rather crap.

https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1063184324135137281

nielh said:

bigjohnowls said:

stodge said:

bigjohnowls said:

LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.

Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??

Eastbourne voted leave.

I don't think Lamb would vote against the deal either.

solarflare said:

The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?

If they had a public running count of the number of letters, or a register of who had sent letters in, then it would have stopped all the pointless wolf-crying that has gone on for months.

Not surprising that the Brexiters who have been doing it are a mix of fantasists and liars, but it might be a good idea to put a stop to it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?

alex. said:

Alistair said:

So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

Perhaps it’s been discovered that the rules require 48 and only 48, and they’ve got too many!

Have they specified the number base? If it is hexadecimal (base 16) that would be 72 decimal.

shiney2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?

Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM

Big_G_NorthWales said:

shiney2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?

Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM

So: nobody from the cabinet.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

shiney2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?

Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM

if there is a VONC, she is likely to win, so stays on, yet her main policy may collapse.

She may be forced to go down with the ship.

shiney2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

shiney2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?

Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM

So: nobody from the cabinet.

Of course the majority of the cabinet

FrancisUrquhart said:

alex. said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

Rooney?

Was talking about some twat out the crowd but I can see how my description could be confused with baldy shrek.

Rooney getting a final game and being treated like we owe him something has been the final nail in the coffin for me and the national team. I'm done with them.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

Rooney?

Let's be honest he's probably not the only one.

Given the current political turmoil I've decided instead to head to the Bank of England website and nominate John Locke for the £50 note. Not necessarily the best idea since Locke surely belongs on the £5/£10/£20 rather than the currency of choice of criminal gangs but I'm doing my bit to save western liberalism.

It's only a thought but I can't help wondering if England's current political woes and the mainstream disregard of its greatest philosopher might have some connection.

williamglenn said:

Man Goverboard?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063185826622902272

What kind of sense does that even make? Either he supports it or he doesn't. Maybe he doesn't fancy being Brexit secretary but if he supports it he stays if he doesn't he should get the hell out.

tyson said:

On the greater substance of today's events, it looks like Mrs May has been filled by the odd injection of botox....

At least she hasn't gone the whole hog and had her gnashers whitened.....

I believe that is called doing a Cheryl Cole.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

shiney2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?

Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM

Except TMay has lost the confidence of the MP's, not just of the Conservatives, but of the house. The Tories know that if they go down there will be a Corbyn government and that scares them silly.

The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.

Fraser:

But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.

Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/despite-revulsion-mrs-mays-deal-confident-opponents-wont-move/