politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

ralphmalph said:

On a random thought I wish I have a fiver for every time I have read that one of the problems with our political system is that the MP's get whipped and this is bad for free thought and representing constituents. So here we have the ERG resisting whipping and as they believe representing their constituents and this is now a bad thing. Well just seems they can never win.

Irregular verb, minister

I represent my constituents.
You stand up for your deeply-held principles despite the difficulties.
He is a two-faced disloyal shit.

Harris_Tweed said:

rcs1000 said:

Excuse me if I've misunderstood this.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.

If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.

It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?

It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.

Because as with Chequers, they all sat on their hands to see how it played out.

Being charitable, he might have wanted to give May a news cycle to get the message out before he shat on her (given his highly emollient tone today). But even that action may have been judged so he comes across as a nicer bloke than storming out au Helestine.

But that still requires him to have no idea what was in the agreement. In which case he should have resigned weeks ago.

Edit to add: I think your first point is right. He thought "well, it isn't perfect, but as everyone else is going along with it..." And then when people started to object, he suddenly got the courage of his convictions.

If he had resigned two weeks ago on the basis that he wasn't happy with the drafts that were being circulated, and he didn't think he'd be able to back the final deal, then that would be a principled resignation.

This? This looks like he's a complete dick.

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts...
If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......

So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?

Don't tempt me.....

Ropes and lampposts is very much an outside outcome, but it can't be ruled out (just because we're British and we don't do that sort of thing). The real tragedy of the whole Brexit saga is a willful failure of many politicians, mostly among the Brexiteers, to understand just how complex and interconnected developed-world societies and economies are today. It is quite possible that we've already gone too far, and our supply chains and food supplies are too brittle and any sort of natural event[1] or man-made accident could have far-reaching consequences. So a no-deal Brexit that could disrupt that complex and finely balanced web of relationships and trade could easily turn chaotic and spiral out of anyone's control.

Or, of course, quite possibly a no-deal Brexit might cause modest disruption, some economic distress at the time but overall something weatherable that, may not end up having a huge impact over the medium to long term (which JRM has defined as fifty years though!)

The scary thing is that so many seem to so blasé about embarking on the experiment! It's like the operators of Chernobyl experimenting with a working reactor's safety systems. They never expected it to lead to a meltdown, but it did.

Even in economies and societies far less developed than ours today, things can spiral out of control. No-one, not even those desired it and planned for it, expected the First World War become the bloodbath of millions and created communism as a viable political system, but it did.

So yes, ropes and lampposts is almost certainly hyperbole, but a no-deal Brexit would undeniably be a revolution. None of those who died under Robespierre's guillotines had the slightest inkling this would be their fate when they celebrated the tennis court oath. I hope none of the Brexiteers ever end up in a similar situation, but it could happen.

And a no deal Brexit is *still* the only possible outcome if nothing is done to prevent it between now and 30 March 2019.

[1] If you read up on the Carrington Event of 1859 and don't break out in a cold sweat at the prospect of it happening again in your lifetime, you're a braver man or woman than I.

rottenborough said:

Sounds like Mordaunt is trying the have cake and eat it strategy tonight.

What's she up to?

rcs1000 said:

Harris_Tweed said:

rcs1000 said:

Excuse me if I've misunderstood this.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.

If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.

It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?

It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.

Because as with Chequers, they all sat on their hands to see how it played out.

Being charitable, he might have wanted to give May a news cycle to get the message out before he shat on her (given his highly emollient tone today). But even that action may have been judged so he comes across as a nicer bloke than storming out au Helestine.

But that still requires him to have no idea what was in the agreement. In which case he should have resigned weeks ago.

I can't find the detail, but IIRC he objected to words to the effect of 'Customs union will be the basis of the future agreement'

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen. PM Raab would be voted down on every single proposal he'd put to the House.

The only way for parliament to prevent No Deal Brexit is to delay or reverse Brexit, once the deal has been rejected. As we've been told by Brussels today, this deal is the only deal on offer.

rcs1000 said:

ralphmalph said:

rcs1000 said:

Excuse me if I've misunderstood this.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.

If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.

It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?

It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.

The info in some of the press is that he got to see it just before cabinet, it was 500 pages. During cabinet stuff was revealed about what was in it that he had not had time to read and these meant resignation. Immediately after cabinet he saw the Chief Whip and told him he was resigning.

But if he wasn't seeing drafts - and there will have been many, many drafts of this - then he should have resigned before as he wasn't being allowed to do his job.

Maybe, but also this Cabinet meeting was so the PM could decide whether they supported the deal. All the info before was that it would be close. The finally tally seems to have been 12 -17. With Mundell and Gove supporting so could before the meeting have been calculated as 14 -15. Seems to me that if any Cabinet Minister was against before the meeting they had a duty to turn up and put their argument and aye or nay, not resign before hand.

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

Sounds like Mordaunt is trying the have cake and eat it strategy tonight.

What's she up to?

Not resigned. Still trying to persuade May that a free vote, without collective arrangement as per normal Cabinet, is the way through the mess.

Interesting...

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.

If only we had a deal or something that while imperfect is more than acceptable that they could vote for.

Oh.

Honestly, any Remainer who votes this down and then bleats about the resulting chaos is like a stupid version of Mogg.

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1063162261274066944

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

That has car crash written all over it

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

As a leaver, I support this oh why oh why did this not happen with Lisbon.

solarflare said:

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

That has car crash written all over it

Especially when all of the callers are ministers phoning in their resignations.

rpjs said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

NickPalmer said:

Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:

"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."

[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.

Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.

I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.

It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.

https://twitter.com/AdamPosen/status/1063111784322813952

While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.

(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)

Lenin suppressed them, and Stalin purged the survivors.

Lenin suppressed them by making one of them Commissar for War?

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

We all know how good she is with the public. Has to be tried I suppose, although even people who have skimmed the deal will probably be mad or happy about half understood things, so the chances of her swaying anyone on the phone who islikely to not even have skimmed it are low.

Caller: This deal is not a true Brexit!
May: It is, because
Caller: No it isn't!

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.

That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.

The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.

In what way?

It would cause mass panic?

ydoethur said:

rpjs said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

NickPalmer said:

Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:

"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."

[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.

Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.

I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.

It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.

https://twitter.com/AdamPosen/status/1063111784322813952

While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.

(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)

Lenin suppressed them, and Stalin purged the survivors.

Lenin suppressed them by making one of them Commissar for War?

Trotsky? I don't think he was ever a Menshevik, and he joined the Bolsheviks just before the the October Revolution. The Mensheviks were never part of Sovnarkom (the Left SRs were for a little while until Kaplan attempted to assassinate Lenin). The Mensheviks were suppressed after the Kronstadt Uprising in 1921.

BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling

bigjohnowls said:

BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling

LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

Wow. Blue on blue in spades:

https://twitter.com/AlistairBurtUK/status/1063166770327023616

stodge said:

Evening all

Another febrile day and an extraordinary single-minded campaign by the Prime Minister to "sell" her own Deal. Yet we saw this with Cameron who tried to go straight to the people and look where that ended up.

Those who seem to support the Deal do so primarily for fear of the alternatives. There seems very little positive about what is being proposed.

Today has convinced me IF the Deal falls in the Commons May will go - she has invested as much political capital in that as Cameron did on the REMAIN vote in 2016. A vote against the Deal can only be seen as a vote against her personally.

I voted LEAVE two and a half years ago because I came to believe there were only two coherent positions possible - all in or all out. All In, including the Euro and Schengen and taking an active and positive leadership role in the development of the EU is credible but it meant and would mean making some huge changes and some would say sacrifices which the British people were unable and unwilling to make.

I find it curious that on either side of the EU you will have two states outside the Union, the UK and Russia, with Imperial pasts and perspectives and yet having to come to terms with the new entity that has developed in their midst. Both, I suspect, preferred a Europe disunited and divided.

Historically, that was of course always the objective of our foreign policy.

bigjohnowls said:

BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling

alex. said:

Is it only a week since Dominic Raab revealed that he had discovered that Britain was an island and a functioning Dover was reasonably important for the country’s food supplies?

Some on here today were rating his chances in a leadership election...!

So, I think I have mentioned before I am involved in Brexit preparations at the company I work for.

Was reading PB ob train - get off, into office and bump into one of the senior "Brexit" people.

We talk about how things are shaping up for us and our industry and ....


God knows how it happened, I referred to Brexshit

He said looking at the news it was hard to argue with that :-)

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

SandyRentool said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomasNashe said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063147336166244352

I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.

And yet...

7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.

OK. So May goes, and then what?

You tell me...

I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?

I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?

So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?

By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.

I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.

That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.

The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.

The difference between the view from the clifftop and the rush of air as we fall?

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

Theresa May meets the public - What could possibly go wrong?

It worked for Gordon.... oh

Bloody good question of the day award...

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1063163059127152644

So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?

solarflare said:

The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?

The Tories should never have privatized the Royal Mail...

Theo said:

Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.

It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.

DavidL said:

So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

Mordaunt arrived home in her own car, and couldn't answer a question about whether she'd resigned, or not. I believe JRM earlier suggested she would be a good PM ...

alex. said:

All these leavers wandering around pushing “the deal is worse than remaining, deal=remain with no influence”. Could have sworn that there were a couple of fundamental arguments which contradict that pushed by them during the referendum:

1)we have zero influence in the EU, we always get outvoted

Except for the 95% of the time when we weren't.

DavidL said:

So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

Seems pretty straightforward to me. It had been a chaotic day with plenty of resignations, even speculation that she would resign then and there or call for a GE. She held it to publicly reiterate that she is sticking to her position, in effect telling her opponents they have to actually take her down, not threaten to do it and expect her to fold.

bigjohnowls said:

Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??

It's LD policy but not my policy.

Although no deal is the default, government would have to survive the vote that follows a failure to deliver a Withdrawal Agreement by 21 January. In practice that would be close to a confidence vote.

The IfG has the detail on this kind of stuff : www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit

So it looks like I will +21 on McVey and -20 on Mordaunt.

What shall I spend the pound on?

rpjs said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Theo said:

Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.

It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.

The deal is quite clear that the transition period will last to 31st December 2020 and can be extended (no later than 30th July 2020) until 31st December 2021. (Yes, yes, I know the draft had the date mangled but everyone knows that was what it was supposed to be.)

I'm not convinced the only extension is once or for one year. Barnier seemed to imply it but there are no words to that effect.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So it looks like I will +21 on McVey and -20 on Mordaunt.

What shall I spend the pound on?

Something worth a lot in bartering for use in your Brexit preparation fund.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rpjs said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Theo said:

Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.

It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.

The deal is quite clear that the transition period will last to 31st December 2020 and can be extended (no later than 30th July 2020) until 31st December 2021. (Yes, yes, I know the draft had the date mangled but everyone knows that was what it was supposed to be.)

I'm not convinced the only extension is once or for one year. Barnier seemed to imply it but there are no words to that effect.

I'm pretty sure the EU said some months back that the transition period can't go past the end of 2021.

stodge said:

bigjohnowls said:

LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.

Getting a deal through would, I am sure, be the last substantive thing she manages, she would not survive for long.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063172743993192456