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32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.0
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As I've said before, there are usually lots of contests run simultaneously in US elections. Hand counting of the British style just wouldn't be practical.OldKingCole said:
The British system may look primitive but it does seem to work. Even when elections run close, as Winchester 97 and East Fife last time.rpjs said:
Huh, I am wrong. It was a machine count. I dunno then!rpjs said:
I think it was a manual count because there were questions on whether the machines had scanned properly.Beverley_C said:
I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?Nigelb said:Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline
Just asking ....0 -
Country as divided as everScott_P said:0 -
I am not an admirer of Mrs May, who is a nasty authoritarian in my opinion, but you have to admire her mental fortitude. Comes with being a woman working her way up the male dominated greasy pole that is the Tory Party.0
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That's sad. Sounds like it could be something serious, let's hope it's not something very serious.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky seem to be convinced that it is genuine. They stated they know what it is about, but won't be revealing what it about it as it is a private person matter.Lennon said:
Shades of John Major's Dentist Appointment? Apologies to Gove if it is genuine and serious obviously, but it is somewhat convenient.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today
I think if they thought it was horseshit, I think they would be mocking his "dog eat my homework" excuse.0 -
I love days like this. Chaos is so entertaining. Brexit, don't brexit, it doesn't matter now, the country is fecked. At least if Jezza gets in charge, I'll be getting an immediate 10% payrise and all my colleagues who have had their pensions filtched will be happy as bad Al Cambell and Tony Blair at an EU sex party. It's fecking fantastic.
Roll the dice!0 -
EEA puts us back where we are now minus voting rights.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?
EU members automatically join EEA, but when we leave we automatically leave EEA.
We left EFTA in 1973 so we have to apply to join.
When we Brexit we will not be members of the EU, EEA or EFTA.
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That full list of options for the 5pm presser:
1. I resign
2. I definitely will not resign and thought you needed to hear me say so in the National Interest
3. There will be a back me or sack me vote on the proposal in the Commons tomorrow
4. Here's what I think of you bastards (whilst curling one out to be thrown at Kay Burley)
5. I hereby sack the entire cabinet (worked for President Hale in House of Cards)0 -
Twisting a poll is a disingenious. It is 54 -32 - 14.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
You cannot ignore the 46 who do not want remain0 -
That 32% looks a very low starting point. It is bound to get smaller as it gets closer and the reality of what it means starts to sink in.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
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Can I say, allowing for the fact that Brexit has no advantages whatever,, that the deal is a lot better than it might be. It manages to avoid both Vassalage and chaos - the trade off posited by Jo Johnson.0
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I think I will be suffering nightmares for months to come now....twistedfirestopper3 said:I love days like this. Chaos is so entertaining. Brexit, don't brexit, it doesn't matter now, the country is fecked. At least if Jezza gets in charge, I'll be getting an immediate 10% payrise and all my colleagues who have had their pensions filtched will be happy as bad Al Cambell and Tony Blair at an EU sex party. It's fecking fantastic.
Roll the dice!0 -
Been out - but how about Phantasmagorischziegenfickfreude ?TheScreamingEagles said:
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You better tell that to Jeremy Corbyn then who has done everything he can to get Brexit, and then everything he can to sabotage a deal. And Labour MPs have almost to a man fallen in behind him.Jonathan said:
Take a breather Theo. This is a marathon, not a sprint. And for people like us - who have zero say - it is important not to take events too personally and politicians too seriously.Theo said:
What utter irresponsible drivel. The six tests Labour had were designed to be failed. Because they care more about power than the wellbeing of the country. They have a moral obligation to vote in a way that most benefits their constituents. They have abandoned that because an economic collapse is beneficial for their chances of forming a government. It is reprehensible.Jonathan said:
d.Theo said:
They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.Jonathan said:
Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.Theo said:You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.
You may believe that voting one way is in the best interests of the country, others simply don't agree with you. There is indeed a lot at stake, but that's ok. Calling people names like "the worst type of human being" and using language like "reprehensible" really doesn't help.
You would be better served in trying to understand that if Labour are to take part in a Brexit plan, what do they need to feel comfortable doing it. So far this deal offers nothing to a Labour voter, most of whom are Remainers.
Why the hell should we not take it seriously? Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their jobs over this. Similar numbers will lose their houses. Even more will face career stagnation in the critical early career period. But it's all a game to you lot. Apparently supporting actions that will lead to this is fine and shouldn't be taken seriously but pointing it out is going beyond the pale.
Most of the votes for going over the cliff will come from the Labour Party.0 -
Sarah Vine would be a problem for anybody.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today
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I remain surprised that anyone thinks a second referendum would solve anything - whatever the result. Only in "Wind in the Willows." or similar fairy stories, do the Patrician Mole and Rat defeat the weasels and stoats of Brexit. They still lurk in the Wildwoods.0
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Yet more evidence, if it was needed, that the EU is bloody prison increasingly like the old Soviet Block, designed wholly to keep you inRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?0 -
Really? Looks like we have a preferred option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Country as divided as everScott_P said:0 -
Leaver breaks down in tears at the damage he has done to his country.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/0 -
"I fight on, I fight to win."RochdalePioneers said:That full list of options for the 5pm presser:
1. I resign
2. I definitely will not resign and thought you needed to hear me say so in the National Interest
3. There will be a back me or sack me vote on the proposal in the Commons tomorrow
4. Here's what I think of you bastards (whilst curling one out to be thrown at Kay Burley)
5. I hereby sack the entire cabinet (worked for President Hale in House of Cards)0 -
4. Sir Graham Brady's given her the opportunity to announce the VONC herself - with some sort of Thatcher in Paris/Major in the rose garden moment attached.DavidL said:
On 2, what could she do?david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.
I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.
If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
5. Timetable (I suspect expedited) for a meaningful vote, and indication of what happens next if she loses? So sort of "Nothing has changed+++".
6. Announcement of new ministerial appointments accompanied by "nothing else has changed".
(I have no strong view on which of the 6 it might be.. though towel being chucked would feel remarkably quick to me, given her previous stickiness in post)
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It's the integration of economies that keeps us in. You can leave, but it takes patience and care, neither of which have been in much evidence.JohnWheatley said:
Yet more evidence, if it was needed, that the EU is bloody prison increasingly like the old Soviet Block, designed wholly to keep you inRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?0 -
I would feel that I was being bullied into voting a particular way, rather than it being a genuine consultative exercise.CD13 said:I remain surprised that anyone thinks a second referendum would solve anything - whatever the result. Only in "Wind in the Willows." or similar fairy stories, do the Patrician Mole and Rat defeat the weasels and stoats of Brexit. They still lurk in the Wildwoods.
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May delivered a deal that showed Brexit was possible while maintaining economic access and controlling immigration. It was acceptable to 80% of people on here. The ERG, Labour and the SNP have united to screw the rest of us over.Beverley_C said:
It all might come to nothing, but I hugely enjoyed myself today watching the Brexit Delusion crumble. All we need now for the Tory Party to complete the first phase of its Phoenix-like rebirth is JRM or Ms Patel for leader and marching us into the WTO wilderness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually, I am not sure a phoenix would recover from that conflagration....
Scum, scum, scum.0 -
Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
9m9 minutes ago
New @skydata poll:
Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
No Brexit 54%
No deal 32%
Her deal 14%
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To be clear, I said we shouldn't take politicians too seriously.Theo said:
You better tell that to Jeremy Corbyn then who has done everything he can to get Brexit, and then everything he can to sabotage a deal. And Labour MPs have almost to a man fallen in behind him.Jonathan said:
Take a breather Theo. This is a marathon, not a sprint. And for people like us - who have zero say - it is important not to take events too personally and politicians too seriously.Theo said:
What utter irresponsible drivel. The six tests Labour had were designed to be failed. Because they care more about power than the wellbeing of the country. They have a moral obligation to vote in a way that most benefits their constituents. They have abandoned that because an economic collapse is beneficial for their chances of forming a government. It is reprehensible.Jonathan said:
d.Theo said:
They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.Jonathan said:
Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.Theo said:You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.
You may believe that voting one way is in the best interests of the country, others simply don't agree with you. There is indeed a lot at stake, but that's ok. Calling people names like "the worst type of human being" and using language like "reprehensible" really doesn't help.
You would be better served in trying to understand that if Labour are to take part in a Brexit plan, what do they need to feel comfortable doing it. So far this deal offers nothing to a Labour voter, most of whom are Remainers.
Why the hell should we not take it seriously? Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their jobs over this. Similar numbers will lose their houses. Even more will face career stagnation in the critical early career period. But it's all a game to you lot. Apparently supporting actions that will lead to this is fine and shouldn't be taken seriously but pointing it out is going beyond the pale.
Most of the votes for going over the cliff will come from the Labour Party.
You assume that if we don't take this deal, there isn't another option an we have to 'no deal'. That is not the case. The EU has not ruled out further negotiation and remaining in the EU is definitely an option.0 -
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Precisely.rpjs said:
It's the integration of economies that keeps us in. You can leave, but it takes patience and care, neither of which have been in much evidence.JohnWheatley said:
Yet more evidence, if it was needed, that the EU is bloody prison increasingly like the old Soviet Block, designed wholly to keep you inRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?
The public should have been told from day one of the result that we are so integrated that the process will take a decade.0 -
Daft twat needs to stop blubbing and realise he hasn't damaged the country, the whole political class has failed him.Recidivist said:Leaver breaks down in tears at the damage he has done to his country.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/0 -
It does not matter. When we leave, we leave the EU and EEA so their treaties no longer apply to uswilliamglenn said:
The EEA treaty allows for that, but not the reverse.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?0 -
"Here I stand; I can do no other." is I think the most likely optionHarris_Tweed said:
4. Sir Graham Brady's given her the opportunity to announce the VONC herself - with some sort of Thatcher in Paris/Major in the rose garden moment attached.DavidL said:
On 2, what could she do?david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.
I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.
If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
5. Timetable (I suspect expedited) for a meaningful vote, and indication of what happens next if she loses? So sort of "Nothing has changed+++".
6. Announcement of new ministerial appointments accompanied by "nothing else has changed".
(I have no strong view on which of the 6 it might be.. though towel being chucked would feel remarkably quick to me, given her previous stickiness in post)0 -
It would if they had two ballot papers: one for the important contest we bet on, and the other for all the downcard stuff like town dog-catcher.rpjs said:
As I've said before, there are usually lots of contests run simultaneously in US elections. Hand counting of the British style just wouldn't be practical.OldKingCole said:
The British system may look primitive but it does seem to work. Even when elections run close, as Winchester 97 and East Fife last time.rpjs said:
Huh, I am wrong. It was a machine count. I dunno then!rpjs said:
I think it was a manual count because there were questions on whether the machines had scanned properly.Beverley_C said:
I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?Nigelb said:Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline
Just asking ....0 -
And who is going to choose that? Eurosceptic Corbyn or whichever Eurosceptic replaces May?Jonathan said:
Really? Looks like we have a preferred option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Country as divided as everScott_P said:0 -
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Indeed. But these are unique circumstances. Saying "this is how EFTA works" doesn't preclude "but a different arrangement could be found by mutual consent".Beverley_C said:
EEA puts us back where we are now minus voting rights.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?
EU members automatically join EEA, but when we leave we automatically leave EEA.
We left EFTA in 1973 so we have to apply to join.
When we Brexit we will not be members of the EU, EEA or EFTA.0 -
It is increasingly getting my preferred option as the ERG have just lost me totallyJonathan said:
Really? Looks like we have a preferred option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Country as divided as everScott_P said:
I am sorry that as a member I ashamed of them but will fight them from within the party
I am sorry for TM who has done her best but if she is to be replaced the party has to elect a unity candidate0 -
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The people have spoken; let the people speak.Scott_P said:0 -
*IF* she goes or is pushed, perhaps the most stable outcome is a sane Brexiteer like Gove or Raab coronation, following a two candidate race in the parliamentary party.
Their mandate is to take the deal back and try to negotiate changes to what is on the table.
One of those could command confidence across the party. An ERGer would split the party.
They presumably would only get the coronation if they agree that sometime before the next election they submit to a full leadership election, once this pesky Brexit issue is done.
But frankly all bets are off just now - what I thought a few hours ago couldn't happen, may no longer be the case.0 -
If it is a genuine family issue that is an ill considered commentold_labour said:
Sarah Vine would be a problem for anybody.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today
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It was heart-wrenching to listen to. I felt so sorry for himtwistedfirestopper3 said:
Daft twat needs to stop blubbing and realise he hasn't damaged the country, the whole political class has failed him.Recidivist said:Leaver breaks down in tears at the damage he has done to his country.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/
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I think your 4 could be right - Brady gives May the chance to announce that there will be a vote and she will fight to stay.Harris_Tweed said:
4. Sir Graham Brady's given her the opportunity to announce the VONC herself - with some sort of Thatcher in Paris/Major in the rose garden moment attached.DavidL said:
On 2, what could she do?david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.
I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.
If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
5. Timetable (I suspect expedited) for a meaningful vote, and indication of what happens next if she loses? So sort of "Nothing has changed+++".
6. Announcement of new ministerial appointments accompanied by "nothing else has changed".
(I have no strong view on which of the 6 it might be.. though towel being chucked would feel remarkably quick to me, given her previous stickiness in post)0 -
Not really. It's just that countries like Norway might like to be consulted if we want to join their club, and we'd need to discuss things like financial terms and voting arrangements. Some Brexiteers seem to think that we can just barge in without bothering to ask anyone else.JohnWheatley said:
Yet more evidence, if it was needed, that the EU is bloody prison increasingly like the old Soviet Block, designed wholly to keep you inRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?0 -
Just watched Tusk chortling on Sky.
Is it possible to re-target Trident on a single individual?0 -
Category errorRobinWiggs said:*IF* she goes or is pushed, perhaps the most stable outcome is a sane Brexiteer
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Perhaps he actually believed the bloody bus !twistedfirestopper3 said:
Daft twat needs to stop blubbing and realise he hasn't damaged the country, the whole political class has failed him.Recidivist said:Leaver breaks down in tears at the damage he has done to his country.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/0 -
Why exactly hasn't the government been asking these questions already in the last two years?Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really. It's just that countries like Norway might like to be consulted if we want to join their club, and we'd need to discuss things like financial terms and voting arrangements. Some Brexiteers seem to think that we can just barge in without bothering to ask anyone else.JohnWheatley said:
Yet more evidence, if it was needed, that the EU is bloody prison increasingly like the old Soviet Block, designed wholly to keep you inRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?0 -
I tend to agree.. but 5 and 6 would at least give some visuals of moving the situation on for the evening news rather than sitting in her bunker rocking back and forth. This morning's statement was dangerously like what ran last night outside No 10.TheWhiteRabbit said:
"Here I stand; I can do no other." is I think the most likely optionHarris_Tweed said:
4. Sir Graham Brady's given her the opportunity to announce the VONC herself - with some sort of Thatcher in Paris/Major in the rose garden moment attached.DavidL said:
On 2, what could she do?david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.
I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.
If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
5. Timetable (I suspect expedited) for a meaningful vote, and indication of what happens next if she loses? So sort of "Nothing has changed+++".
6. Announcement of new ministerial appointments accompanied by "nothing else has changed".
(I have no strong view on which of the 6 it might be.. though towel being chucked would feel remarkably quick to me, given her previous stickiness in post)0 -
You would, I think need more counters, and more places for them to count, and some means of keeping a running tally for all seats but it could be done.DecrepitJohnL said:
It would if they had two ballot papers: one for the important contest we bet on, and the other for all the downcard stuff like town dog-catcher.rpjs said:
As I've said before, there are usually lots of contests run simultaneously in US elections. Hand counting of the British style just wouldn't be practical.OldKingCole said:
The British system may look primitive but it does seem to work. Even when elections run close, as Winchester 97 and East Fife last time.rpjs said:
Huh, I am wrong. It was a machine count. I dunno then!rpjs said:
I think it was a manual count because there were questions on whether the machines had scanned properly.Beverley_C said:
I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?Nigelb said:Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline
Just asking ....0 -
Seriously, could anyone talk me through a route to a second referendum which saw a narrow Remain victory and see us playing happily together afterwards.
0 -
Bear in mind this is a "genuine family issue" that has in no way prevented him from negotiating demands with May about what he will accept in order to be Brexit secretary.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is a genuine family issue that is an ill considered commentold_labour said:
Sarah Vine would be a problem for anybody.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today
It's the sort of awfully gosh darned convenient "genuine family issue" that allows him to play politics from the shadows, exactly how he likes to, at precisely the most opportune moment.
0 -
What you forget is that a lot of the support for the deal on here comes from pragmatic remainers like myself, who still would like to see the absolute best attempt made for a democratic vote to be honoured.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Twisting a poll is a disingenious. It is 54 -32 - 14.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
You cannot ignore the 46 who do not want remain
'Not wanting to remain' doesn't quite cover it.
I'd like to see this expressed as 3 separate binary choices. I suspect the following:
Remain Vs No Deal 65:35
Remain Vs Deal 60:40
Deal vs No Deal 65:35
0 -
Knowing the Tory Party, they'll probably split about 55/45% in favour of keeping May.SandyRentool said:
I think your 4 could be right - Brady gives May the chance to announce that there will be a vote and she will fight to stay.Harris_Tweed said:
4. Sir Graham Brady's given her the opportunity to announce the VONC herself - with some sort of Thatcher in Paris/Major in the rose garden moment attached.DavidL said:
On 2, what could she do?david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.
I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.
If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
5. Timetable (I suspect expedited) for a meaningful vote, and indication of what happens next if she loses? So sort of "Nothing has changed+++".
6. Announcement of new ministerial appointments accompanied by "nothing else has changed".
(I have no strong view on which of the 6 it might be.. though towel being chucked would feel remarkably quick to me, given her previous stickiness in post)0 -
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CorbynTheo said:
And who is going to choose that? Eurosceptic Corbyn or whichever Eurosceptic replaces May?Jonathan said:
Really? Looks like we have a preferred option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Country as divided as everScott_P said:0 -
As a remainer, I hate to agree with the Brexit loons, but vassalage does sound very close to what the deal promises. I still believe we are better off in the EU compared to any other option available.Theo said:
May delivered a deal that showed Brexit was possible while maintaining economic access and controlling immigration. It was acceptable to 80% of people on here. The ERG, Labour and the SNP have united to screw the rest of us over.Beverley_C said:
It all might come to nothing, but I hugely enjoyed myself today watching the Brexit Delusion crumble. All we need now for the Tory Party to complete the first phase of its Phoenix-like rebirth is JRM or Ms Patel for leader and marching us into the WTO wilderness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually, I am not sure a phoenix would recover from that conflagration....
Scum, scum, scum.
Brexit is complete nonsense unless we are willing to take a massive economic dislocation (and that would be complete madness)0 -
Some of the 14% should break for Remain if it became a binary choice though. This poll looks to me as a *big* swing to remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Twisting a poll is a disingenious. It is 54 -32 - 14.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
You cannot ignore the 46 who do not want remain0 -
That is truly dire polling for the deal.old_labour said:
Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
9m9 minutes ago
New @skydata poll:
Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
No Brexit 54%
No deal 32%
Her deal 14%
Dead.
PB out of touch?0 -
squeezing a three option vote never produces the same result as a binary choice.murali_s said:
Some of the 14% should break for Remain if it became a binary choice though. This poll looks to me as a *big* swing to remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Twisting a poll is a disingenious. It is 54 -32 - 14.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
You cannot ignore the 46 who do not want remain0 -
Because the People's Vote was won by the Leave campaign on a platform of ending freedom of movement.Xenon said:Why exactly hasn't the government been asking these questions already in the last two years?
0 -
No. There are sane Brexiteers just like there are sane Remainers. It is inherent in the narrow divison we have that there are plenty of people grouped around the middle.Scott_P said:
Category errorRobinWiggs said:*IF* she goes or is pushed, perhaps the most stable outcome is a sane Brexiteer
It's the ultras on both sides you need to watch out for. Their hysteria is drowning out the moderates.0 -
Rubbish. There was no ‘unified platform’.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because the People's Vote was won by the Leave campaign on a platform of ending freedom of movement.Xenon said:Why exactly hasn't the government been asking these questions already in the last two years?
0 -
The word “simply” is doing an awful lot of work. Unlike every Davis or Johnson, of course.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.Beverley_C said:
*Sigh!*AmpfieldAndy said:The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?0 -
Probably around a third or so ?murali_s said:
Some of the 14% should break for Remain if it became a binary choice though. This poll looks to me as a *big* swing to remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Twisting a poll is a disingenious. It is 54 -32 - 14.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
You cannot ignore the 46 who do not want remain
Perhaps 57-43 to remain maybe. The ERG are doing spectacular damage to the leave cause today.0 -
OK - totally wild speculation fantasy.
Graham Brady has told Mrs May of the 48 letters.
Mrs May has, in the interests of the country, emailed Barnier & Tusk and asked for Brexit to be abandoned.
If you are being fired, what do you have to lose? Tune in at 1700h ....0 -
No, but that was the most powerful, effective and prominent message, along with the lie about the £350m.Gallowgate said:
Rubbish. There was no ‘unified platform’.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because the People's Vote was won by the Leave campaign on a platform of ending freedom of movement.Xenon said:Why exactly hasn't the government been asking these questions already in the last two years?
0 -
Could be a "dental appointment".Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is a genuine family issue that is an ill considered commentold_labour said:
Sarah Vine would be a problem for anybody.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today
0 -
Prepare to die with laughter May only knows 3TheJezziah said:
I think I would die from laughter if it is number 3, it almost seems in character for May but surely not...david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.0 -
The British public does not back Theresa May's Brexit dealdixiedean said:
That is truly dire polling for the deal.old_labour said:
Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
9m9 minutes ago
New @skydata poll:
Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
No Brexit 54%
No deal 32%
Her deal 14%
Dead.
PB out of touch?
Support - 19%
Oppose - 42%
Don't know - 39%
YouGov - not nearly so bad.
0 -
For those of us who would support for May in the confidence vote (and the chances must still be that she will prevail) but accept the inevitability that her Deal will not pass the Commons, what then? Presumably, she goes back to the EU in the hope of better terms but that seems a remote possibility (or is it?); then how can there be any other outcome than No Deal with all that entails, unless she does indeed do the Mummy of All U turns and legislates for a referendum.
I was going to write that there is no way the govt would give up the ghost and face annihilation at a snap election. But then this is my party we're discussing.0 -
At which point does Phillip May put his arm round her shoulders and say "come on love, time to stop"0
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Only idiots would describe this as vassalage. We regain control over 80% of our economy, immigration and plenty else.Beverley_C said:
As a remainer, I hate to agree with the Brexit loons, but vassalage does sound very close to what the deal promises. I still believe we are better off in the EU compared to any other option available.Theo said:
May delivered a deal that showed Brexit was possible while maintaining economic access and controlling immigration. It was acceptable to 80% of people on here. The ERG, Labour and the SNP have united to screw the rest of us over.Beverley_C said:
It all might come to nothing, but I hugely enjoyed myself today watching the Brexit Delusion crumble. All we need now for the Tory Party to complete the first phase of its Phoenix-like rebirth is JRM or Ms Patel for leader and marching us into the WTO wilderness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually, I am not sure a phoenix would recover from that conflagration....
Scum, scum, scum.
Brexit is complete nonsense unless we are willing to take a massive economic dislocation (and that would be complete madness)
But no one cares about the actual facts. People just care about pushing silly analogies and talking points so they can be self righteous over the other lot.
My country has become full of self indulgent puerile t***s. Any sense of doing the right thing, dealing with practical realities, making measured necessary compromises has gone. I am ashamed to be British right now.0 -
BBC just showed a live shot of the podium at No10 for the presser.
It did not appear to have the PM seal on it...0 -
That seems to be their intention.Pulpstar said:
Probably around a third or so ?murali_s said:
Some of the 14% should break for Remain if it became a binary choice though. This poll looks to me as a *big* swing to remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Twisting a poll is a disingenious. It is 54 -32 - 14.williamglenn said:32% support an option that isn't deliverable. If they are presented with a forced choice between Remain and the deal, you'd end up with Remain winning by around 65/35.
You cannot ignore the 46 who do not want remain
Perhaps 57-43 to remain maybe. The ERG are doing spectacular damage to the leave cause today.0 -
The vote was pretty much all about immigration. Which May's deal actually delivers on - it's had all the talking heads rubbishing it (Noone from the public will bother to read it) so obviously it is polling terribly. But it's actually a decent deal !Gallowgate said:
Rubbish. There was no ‘unified platform’.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because the People's Vote was won by the Leave campaign on a platform of ending freedom of movement.Xenon said:Why exactly hasn't the government been asking these questions already in the last two years?
0 -
I would question if she has the authority to call a GE.Scott_P said:BBC just showed a live shot of the podium at No10 for the presser.
It did not appear to have the PM seal on it...0 -
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In the Commons all we have at the moment are the ultras, because everyone else is going along with the continuity remainers who would rather no deal if they get a chance at remain, and the fantasy dealers who would rather no deal than concede getting a new deal, even if possible, will be quite hard.RobinWiggs said:
No. There are sane Brexiteers just like there are sane Remainers. It is inherent in the narrow divison we have that there are plenty of people grouped around the middle.Scott_P said:
Category errorRobinWiggs said:*IF* she goes or is pushed, perhaps the most stable outcome is a sane Brexiteer
It's the ultras on both sides you need to watch out for. Their hysteria is drowning out the moderates.
0 -
4.59 pm today.....RochdalePioneers said:At which point does Phillip May put his arm round her shoulders and say "come on love, time to stop"
0 -
Some official spots this and thinks "Oh shit, I forgot the crest" while the markets go nuts...Scott_P said:BBC just showed a live shot of the podium at No10 for the presser.
It did not appear to have the PM seal on it...0 -
And so they carry on drowning out the broadcasters with 'peoples vote'
The broadcasters have to do something to stop this0 -
Excellent!Scott_P said:
Category errorRobinWiggs said:*IF* she goes or is pushed, perhaps the most stable outcome is a sane Brexiteer
0 -
She should be spending the afternoon talking to Starmer and be getting ready for the mother of all U turns. She does not have much time.JohnO said:For those of us who would support for May in the confidence vote (and the chances must still be that she will prevail) but accept the inevitability that her Deal will not pass the Commons, what then? Presumably, she goes back to the EU in the hope of better terms but that seems a remote possibility (or is it?); then how can there be any other outcome than No Deal with all that entails, unless she does indeed do the Mummy of All U turns and legislates for a referendum.
I was going to write that there is no way the govt would give up the ghost and face annihilation at a snap election. But then this is my party we're discussing.0 -
And we have a deal that gets what the public want in immigration while maintaining economic access.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because the People's Vote was won by the Leave campaign on a platform of ending freedom of movement.Xenon said:Why exactly hasn't the government been asking these questions already in the last two years?
0 -
Ssssh, Theresa.
Sleep now.0 -
On the plus side, Brexit *will* unite the Tory party in due course.Sean_F said:
Knowing the Tory Party, they'll probably split about 55/45% in favour of keeping May.SandyRentool said:
I think your 4 could be right - Brady gives May the chance to announce that there will be a vote and she will fight to stay.Harris_Tweed said:
4. Sir Graham Brady's given her the opportunity to announce the VONC herself - with some sort of Thatcher in Paris/Major in the rose garden moment attached.DavidL said:
On 2, what could she do?david_herdson said:
Three possibilities:TheScreamingEagles said:
1. Towel thrown, game over;
2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
3. "Nothing has changed".
For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.
I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.
If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
5. Timetable (I suspect expedited) for a meaningful vote, and indication of what happens next if she loses? So sort of "Nothing has changed+++".
6. Announcement of new ministerial appointments accompanied by "nothing else has changed".
(I have no strong view on which of the 6 it might be.. though towel being chucked would feel remarkably quick to me, given her previous stickiness in post)
Admittedly it could be quite a lot smaller.0 -
0
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It could be the press conference will be about the challenge to her leadership within her party.Mortimer said:
Oh dear.Scott_P said:BBC just showed a live shot of the podium at No10 for the presser.
It did not appear to have the PM seal on it...
I think that means:
1) Party issue
2) Political issue
I.E. not as office of PM.
Is that right?0 -
Nothing stops her from calling for one, but no she cannot just call one.Slackbladder said:
I would question if she has the authority to call a GE.Scott_P said:BBC just showed a live shot of the podium at No10 for the presser.
It did not appear to have the PM seal on it...0 -
Vox Populi?Big_G_NorthWales said:And so they carry on drowning out the broadcasters with 'peoples vote'
The broadcasters have to do something to stop this0 -
What does "no crest" mean ?Carolus_Rex said:
Some official spots this and thinks "Oh shit, I forgot the crest" while the markets go nuts...Scott_P said:BBC just showed a live shot of the podium at No10 for the presser.
It did not appear to have the PM seal on it...0 -
My only hope is that a new party of the centre-right rises from these current ashes.0
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I do not think you have learnt much about how much your comment will infuriate the ladiesRochdalePioneers said:At which point does Phillip May put his arm round her shoulders and say "come on love, time to stop"
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I think the important consideration is have the DUP pulled support from TM but not the Tory Govt led by somebody else. This would cause a lot of Tory MP's to have a good think.RochdalePioneers said:At which point does Phillip May put his arm round her shoulders and say "come on love, time to stop"
0 -
He mentioned a list of names excluding his own.Scott_P said:0 -
If she is about to retire to run through fields of wheat what happens next? How quickly can the Tory MPs sift through the various cretins who want the job? How quickly can they put the final pair to the membership? What if the membership decide the pair put to them aren't batshit enough and write in Rees-Mogg on the ballot paper?0
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This discussion has been closed.