Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

1356714

Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    May Resigns

    Patisserie Valerie CEO Paul May has resigned.

    Which govt post did he hold?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Meanwhile, in other news. the BBC is reporting that the 'Search (is) on in Boston and Skegness for £76m lottery ticket holder.'

    You could probably buy the whole of Skeggy with that.
  • PM news conference at 5.00pm
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    May Resigns

    Patisserie Valerie CEO Paul May has resigned.

    Which govt post did he hold?
    Lord Pastry Puff
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Perhaps Mrs May is feeling left out, and is holding the Press Conference to announce that she too has written to Graham Brady.

    Maybe May's deal can get through parliament still. Just not with May at the helm - country bfore Betfair position I guess ^^;
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2018
    tpfkar said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    Must be possible that she knows the no confidence vote is being called, and she's making a statement explaining why she is contesting it? She's really no quitter.
    Isn't it just the press conference she was going to hold yesterday before Parliament complained about being told about the deal first and the Cabinet meeting overran?

    I expect most of the questions will be about resignations and the bunch of Brady letters,.though.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    The DUP have said they won't support the deal. They haven't (yet) announced they're withdrawing May's confidence and supply.

    They won't do that because the moment they do Labour will move a motion of no confidence under the FTPA and the government will fall.

    That's a nuclear option the DUP are keeping in their back pocket. They're not ready to do that, yet. But May's playing with fucking hellfire.

    They've answered this:

    The S&C is with the Tory party, not Theresa.

    No GE (unless ~40% Tory MPs vote for it)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Can anyone explain why we can’t have a unilateral withdrawal from the Backstop? Apart from that the EU want to tie our hands.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    tlg86 said:

    Meanwhile, in other news. the BBC is reporting that the 'Search (is) on in Boston and Skegness for £76m lottery ticket holder.'

    You could probably buy the whole of Skeggy with that.
    And have change.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Opposition opposes government, shock horror.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    She has lost the DUP on the Brexit deal. That doesn't mean the Tories have lost them overall - though they would if they were able to push the current deal through.
    I think they will start to assert themselves by abstaining on votes to highlight their value
    votes of no consequence maybe
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    May knew what our 6 tests were. She chose not to pursue a deal that meets them.
  • May's finished, isn't she? Who takes over? My vote is for Johnson. I'd like to see him owning this entirely. It would mean I'd have to vote Labour, but that is a small price to pay.
  • Can anyone explain why we can’t have a unilateral withdrawal from the Backstop? Apart from that the EU want to tie our hands.

    At the moment the Irish protocol is a proper backstop, it can only be replaced by a long term partnership. In order words if the WA is signed there is never a third state, with a hard border in NI.

    When you talk about unilaterally ending the backstop, you tend to mean unilaterally creating a hard border.
  • Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    May knew what our 6 tests were. She chose not to pursue a deal that meets them.
    There is no deal that meets them
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    PM news conference at 5.00pm

    Suspect Hunt and Javid and Gove and others have told her "Tilt. Game over...."
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    rpjs said:

    tlg86 said:

    Meanwhile, in other news. the BBC is reporting that the 'Search (is) on in Boston and Skegness for £76m lottery ticket holder.'

    You could probably buy the whole of Skeggy with that.
    And have change.
    And what would be your first choice?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The professional commentariat have gone from "hearing rumours" to "the VONC is on monday" pretty damn quickly

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1063097673732050944
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Opposition opposes government, shock horror.
    As long as they are prepared for the risks of opposing in this instance. If all they can fall back on is 'oppositions oppose' that is incredibly childish.

    There are good reasons to oppose this deal, so long as the risks of not doing so are known and accepted, but blankly asserting that it is the job for oppositions to oppose, as though it is not still incumbent to take every vote on its merits (just as it is with any government party, hence while people rebel in the first place), is pathetic. Toddlers know better.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    shiney2 said:

    The DUP have said they won't support the deal. They haven't (yet) announced they're withdrawing May's confidence and supply.

    They won't do that because the moment they do Labour will move a motion of no confidence under the FTPA and the government will fall.

    That's a nuclear option the DUP are keeping in their back pocket. They're not ready to do that, yet. But May's playing with fucking hellfire.

    They've answered this:

    The S&C is with the Tory party, not Theresa.

    No GE (unless ~40% Tory MPs vote for it)
    Makes sense. They may have no further use for May, but they still have her party over a barrel :)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited November 2018
    Mr 86,

    "You could probably buy the whole of Skeggy with that."

    Nothing wrong with Skeg if you like a breeze.

    But if it's one of my family in Boston, they'll hopefully use it for something better. I'll be watching out for unexpected spending on their part for the next month or so.

    Edit: Perhaps it's God telling them he approves of full-fat Brexit? They won't need much telling.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    There is no way she would survive a vote of no confidence. Even if she stood and won, so many Tory MPs would vote against her that she’d have to go because she’d have no consensus for any policy. She’s lost the DUP so she might also lose the budget. Her Brexit plan satisfies no one and she has entirely abdicated the entire domestic policy agenda to achieve a Brexit deal no one wants.

    The question is whether or not there will be a vote of no confidence. So many MPs say they have written letters that it must be close to 300 now but Brady says he still hasn’t got 48 !

    The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
  • Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:


    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.

    The EU will not reopen negotiations.

    Not surprising given the attitude of the Brexiteers
    The attitude of the Brexiteers that tells the EU "This deal will not pass the HoC - not just becausue of us, but because of Labour. The options are revisit limited aspects that are killing it - or it is a No Deal Brexit. It really is down to you..."
  • Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    Nothing has changed will be her epitaph.
  • These Football Leaks expose stuff seems to be getting very little mainstream coverage, but some shocking stuff going on (if true). Modern day equivalent of cash in a brown paper bag stuff.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/nov/15/chelsea-accused-andreas-christensen-father
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    The DUP have said they won't support the deal. They haven't (yet) announced they're withdrawing May's confidence and supply.

    They won't do that because the moment they do Labour will move a motion of no confidence under the FTPA and the government will fall.

    That's a nuclear option the DUP are keeping in their back pocket. They're not ready to do that, yet. But May's playing with fucking hellfire.

    Corbyn ought to call the DUP's bluff and move a VONC anyway.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Can anyone explain why we can’t have a unilateral withdrawal from the Backstop? Apart from that the EU want to tie our hands.

    Because Ireland (via the EU) need to be content it can be ended and won't mean a hard border.
  • Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    Would you be in the least bit surprised if it was #3?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Scott_P said:


    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.

    The EU will not reopen negotiations.

    Not surprising given the attitude of the Brexiteers
    The attitude of the Brexiteers that tells the EU "This deal will not pass the HoC - not just becausue of us, but because of Labour. The options are revisit limited aspects that are killing it - or it is a No Deal Brexit. It really is down to you..."
    First step is for the deal to actually be rejected. Why should the EU even consider adjusting things until they know how many MPs are prepared to accept this offer? Yes it shows our hand, but if we want them to reopen things they need a reason.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    I think I would die from laughter if it is number 3, it almost seems in character for May but surely not...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    There is no way she would survive a vote of no confidence. Even if she stood and won, so many Tory MPs would vote against her that she’d have to go because she’d have no consensus for any policy. She’s lost the DUP so she might also lose the budget. Her Brexit plan satisfies no one and she has entirely abdicated the entire domestic policy agenda to achieve a Brexit deal no one wants.

    The question is whether or not there will be a vote of no confidence. So many MPs say they have written letters that it must be close to 300 now but Brady says he still hasn’t got 48 !

    The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    EEA on its own is not an option. It has to be EEA+CU in which case might as well Remain.
  • Now here's a front bench in waiting to savour......

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1063097864593858561

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,152
    edited November 2018
    Do the twats shouting over the top of those appearing on outside broadcasts of the news channels realize how much of a twat they sound?

    For clarity I don't mean the MPs, it is a given they are twattish, I mean the protesters.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Sajid Javid is being very very quiet.

    As a potential front-runner to replace May, he's probably thinking "shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit......."

    And having discussions with the possible temporary leader about supporting his taking over for a couple of years.

    Btw, where is David Davis today?
    Probably nipped over to Berlin to get the deal sorted.

    😉
    Why would he need all day? We are already aligned with Germany and their car plants need us to survive. It should be the easiest deal in the world.....

    pauses.....




    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    Nothing is Changed must be favorite.

    Forward to Moscow..
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    I can't see how anyone still in cabinet by the end of today gets to take over from May.

    Time for some to take a jump before it is too late.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    One hopes that we would go all-in, Euro and all.
  • rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.
    And EU say it is this or no deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Hang on. You've got the order wrong.

    May relies on the ERG because she is leader of the Conservative party trying to lead a Conservative Minority govt and they are her Conservative MPs. The fact she can't do it alone is entirely a Conservative problem

    Labour are in opposition. Their constitutional duty is to oppose. They have set out six test that this deal does not meet. They are under no obligation moral or otherwise to back it.

    If May wants Labour votes or indeed non Conservative votes she should try to offer them something. Instead she is saying this is the best deal, do what you are told.


  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    shiney2 said:

    Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    Nothing is Changed must be favorite.

    Forward to Moscow..
    "Steiner's assault will bring it under control."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.
    And EU say it is this or no deal.
    They are liars and that means that a better deal with them will be super easy!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    If TM does decide to resign, is there any chance she will "officially cease to be leader of the conservative party" after the end of the year?

    Asking for a friend with a rather unhealthy red number on betfair....
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    edited November 2018
    Trying to think what I want to happen in a Tory no confidence vote. While I'd love to see Brexit stopped, I've no illusions about what that would mean for the country. So I think on balance I'd prefer to see May stand and win, to finally push back against the ERG mentality within the Tory party and country. It's a fight Cameron never took on, maybe it's May's turn for a desperate last stand.

    Yes - hope she wins.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Roger said:

    Interesting that during Mrs May's grueling interrogation she said Parliament had voted for the referendum by 6 to 1. 544 to 53 in favour. So there are more than Farage and Cameron responsible.

    And who were the heroic 1 in 6 who didn't?

    Mainly the SNP I think.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Can anyone explain why we can’t have a unilateral withdrawal from the Backstop? Apart from that the EU want to tie our hands.

    More accurately, they want us to tie our own hands
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.
    And EU say it is this or no deal.
    The EU are explicitly not ruling out other options.
  • rkrkrk said:

    If TM does decide to resign, is there any chance she will "officially cease to be leader of the conservative party" after the end of the year?

    Asking for a friend with a rather unhealthy red number on betfair....

    Yes, if there's a full contest which goes to members. Anyone's guess whether that will be so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Since the Parliamentary Conservative Party cannot agree how it wants to go forward, I think it's unlikely that Brexit will now happen. They can't govern anymore, and a Labour-led government will take over.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    CD13 said:

    Mr 86,

    "You could probably buy the whole of Skeggy with that."

    Nothing wrong with Skeg if you like a breeze.

    But if it's one of my family in Boston, they'll hopefully use it for something better. I'll be watching out for unexpected spending on their part for the next month or so.

    Edit: Perhaps it's God telling them he approves of full-fat Brexit? They won't need much telling.

    Whoever bought the ticket appears to have lost it!

    Could be a Pole who has gone home, of course!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline
  • Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    May knew what our 6 tests were. She chose not to pursue a deal that meets them.
    You mean remain then, which to be honest is looking more likely by the hour
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    *Sigh!*

    For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.

    The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.

    So what is the point of leaving?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Can anyone explain why we can’t have a unilateral withdrawal from the Backstop? Apart from that the EU want to tie our hands.

    At the moment the Irish protocol is a proper backstop, it can only be replaced by a long term partnership. In order words if the WA is signed there is never a third state, with a hard border in NI.

    When you talk about unilaterally ending the backstop, you tend to mean unilaterally creating a hard border.
    If we do nothing will the EU create the hard border?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    rkrkrk said:

    If TM does decide to resign, is there any chance she will "officially cease to be leader of the conservative party" after the end of the year?

    Asking for a friend with a rather unhealthy red number on betfair....

    Yes, if there's a full contest which goes to members. Anyone's guess whether that will be so.
    Will she remain as PM for the duration ?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Nigelb said:

    Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline

    I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?

    Just asking ....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    On 2, what could she do?

    A second referendum? The vast majority of her party still oppose that. Norway/EEA intermediate step? Still subject to a deal with the EU. No deal? No majority for that either. An election? Not in her gift and I think her party would have enormous reservations about letting her lead in it.

    I am forced to conclude it will be, well I have done my best, I still think this is the best deal we are going to get but it will clearly not pass and I must pass the baton on.

    If its 3 then we are genuinely in white coat territory.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Hang on. You've got the order wrong.

    May relies on the ERG because she is leader of the Conservative party trying to lead a Conservative Minority govt and they are her Conservative MPs. The fact she can't do it alone is entirely a Conservative problem

    Labour are in opposition. Their constitutional duty is to oppose. They have set out six test that this deal does not meet. They are under no obligation moral or otherwise to back it.

    If May wants Labour votes or indeed non Conservative votes she should try to offer them something. Instead she is saying this is the best deal, do what you are told.


    What utter irresponsible drivel. The six tests Labour had were designed to be failed. Because they care more about power than the wellbeing of the country. They have a moral obligation to vote in a way that most benefits their constituents. They have abandoned that because an economic collapse is beneficial for their chances of forming a government. It is reprehensible.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If TM does decide to resign, is there any chance she will "officially cease to be leader of the conservative party" after the end of the year?

    Asking for a friend with a rather unhealthy red number on betfair....

    Yes, if there's a full contest which goes to members. Anyone's guess whether that will be so.
    Will she remain as PM for the duration ?
    She doesn't have to. The convention is for the outgoing PM to stay on as a caretaker, but she could go to the Palace to say "bugger this for a game of soldier, I'm off" and recommend someone to be caretaker in her place (Hammond perhaps?)
  • Pulpstar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If TM does decide to resign, is there any chance she will "officially cease to be leader of the conservative party" after the end of the year?

    Asking for a friend with a rather unhealthy red number on betfair....

    Yes, if there's a full contest which goes to members. Anyone's guess whether that will be so.
    Will she remain as PM for the duration ?
    In normal circumstances, yes. In these circumstances, probably.
  • The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    *Sigh!*

    For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.

    The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.

    So what is the point of leaving?
    Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.
  • Do the twats shouting over the top of those appearing on outside broadcasts of the news channels realize how much of a twat they sound?

    For clarity I don't mean the MPs, it is a given they are twattish, I mean the protesters.

    The broadcasters have put up with this for months. Time for them to either go inside or get the Met to deal with the protesters. I am sure if I stood in the street shouting at someone I would be moved on soon enough
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Nigelb said:

    Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline

    I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?

    Just asking ....
    I think it was a manual count because there were questions on whether the machines had scanned properly.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    rpjs said:

    shiney2 said:

    Three possibilities:

    1. Towel thrown, game over;
    2. Some Hail Mary proposal;
    3. "Nothing has changed".

    For her sake, let it be (1) or (2). Go down with dignity or go down fighting but don't be taken down in denial.
    Nothing is Changed must be favorite.

    Forward to Moscow..
    "Steiner's assault will bring it under control."
    New Downfall video needed...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Sean_F said:


    Since the Parliamentary Conservative Party cannot agree how it wants to go forward, I think it's unlikely that Brexit will now happen. They can't govern anymore, and a Labour-led government will take over.

    If the Tories cannot govern, and they have proven they cannot, they should indeed let someone else try instead.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Opposition opposes government, shock horror.
    As long as they are prepared for the risks of opposing in this instance. If all they can fall back on is 'oppositions oppose' that is incredibly childish.

    There are good reasons to oppose this deal, so long as the risks of not doing so are known and accepted, but blankly asserting that it is the job for oppositions to oppose, as though it is not still incumbent to take every vote on its merits (just as it is with any government party, hence while people rebel in the first place), is pathetic. Toddlers know better.
    that last bit is a bit testing for socialists
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018

    The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    *Sigh!*

    For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.

    The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.

    So what is the point of leaving?
    Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.
    Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.
  • rkrkrk said:

    If TM does decide to resign, is there any chance she will "officially cease to be leader of the conservative party" after the end of the year?

    Asking for a friend with a rather unhealthy red number on betfair....

    Yes. A Con leadership election, going to the members, would normally take 6-8 weeks. The new leader could therefore be announced early in January, with May staying on until then.

    Whether the process can be contracted to get someone in place faster than that (other than by arranged coronations, which I doubt are possible in current circumstances), is open to question. The rules Mike mentions in the header also specify the timeline for the MPs rounds of a leadership election. These could potentially take maybe three weeks by themselves, after which the members vote. What with Christmas mail, I could well see a case for going into January.

    Obviously, the opposite case is that it'd be bloody stupid to take two months out navel-gazing but then that's also the argument for not having an election at all.
  • Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:
    Not the most helpful phrasing for May, so I guess they don't give a shit if this deal passes either.
  • I'm not a violent man, but that twat with a megaphone yawping "Stop Brexit" every time someone is interviewed needs a whistling shovel!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:
    Magic ball:

    Deal not popular
    people's vote preferred option
  • The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    *Sigh!*

    For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.

    The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.

    So what is the point of leaving?
    Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    May knew what our 6 tests were. She chose not to pursue a deal that meets them.
    You mean remain then, which to be honest is looking more likely by the hour
    If, under a Labour government, it is not possible to reach a deal that meets our tests, then there would be a second referendum in which the government backs Remain. I think.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:


    Not the most helpful phrasing for May, so I guess they don't give a shit if this deal passes either.

    You mean they don't need us more than we need them?

    WHY DID NOBODY SAY THIS BEFORE?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rpjs said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline

    I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?

    Just asking ....
    I think it was a manual count because there were questions on whether the machines had scanned properly.
    Huh, I am wrong. It was a machine count. I dunno then!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Hang on. You've got the order wrong.

    May relies on the ERG because she is leader of the Conservative party trying to lead a Conservative Minority govt and they are her Conservative MPs. The fact she can't do it alone is entirely a Conservative problem

    Labour are in opposition. Their constitutional duty is to oppose. They have set out six test that this deal does not meet. They are under no obligation moral or otherwise to back it.

    If May wants Labour votes or indeed non Conservative votes she should try to offer them something. Instead she is saying this is the best deal, do what you are told.


    What utter irresponsible drivel. The six tests Labour had were designed to be failed. Because they care more about power than the wellbeing of the country. They have a moral obligation to vote in a way that most benefits their constituents. They have abandoned that because an economic collapse is beneficial for their chances of forming a government. It is reprehensible.
    Just at the moment it is rather pot and kettle for a Conservative to say that Labour 'care more about power than the wellbeing of the country'.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    It all might come to nothing, but I hugely enjoyed myself today watching the Brexit Delusion crumble. All we need now for the Tory Party to complete the first phase of its Phoenix-like rebirth is JRM or Ms Patel for leader and marching us into the WTO wilderness.

    Actually, I am not sure a phoenix would recover from that conflagration....
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    *Sigh!*

    For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.

    The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.

    So what is the point of leaving?
    Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.
    The EU could allow us to have a bilateral agreement which is effectively EEA membership, like Switzerland.
  • I'm not a violent man, but that twat with a megaphone yawping "Stop Brexit" every time someone is interviewed needs a whistling shovel!

    Perhaps we can start an online petition for this....I think you won't be the only one that feels this way.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida count complete before the deadline - and now a recount rather likely:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416901-broward-county-completes-machine-recount-ahead-of-deadline

    I thought the USA had all these machines so that vote counting was efficient, reliable and fast?

    Just asking ....
    I think it was a manual count because there were questions on whether the machines had scanned properly.
    Huh, I am wrong. It was a machine count. I dunno then!
    The British system may look primitive but it does seem to work. Even when elections run close, as Winchester 97 and East Fife last time.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,779

    Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today

    Shades of John Major's Dentist Appointment? Apologies to Gove if it is genuine and serious obviously, but it is somewhat convenient.
  • What strikes me, as it has done for a while, is what a bunch of wimps the the key Remainers are, particularly on the Labour side - and I voted Leave. Roy Jenkins must be spinning in his grave, or maybe just not surprised.
    Surely out of this present confusion, one of them is going to hoist the banner of Remain? I understand why they may have taken a tactical decision to wait until Mrs May had a deal. If they vote against the deal on the table it potentially leads to their least favoured option, when they might have the numbers to capture the Commons for a new PM to go cap in hand to the EU and beg to Remain.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    Hang on. You've got the order wrong.

    May relies on the ERG because she is leader of the Conservative party trying to lead a Conservative Minority govt and they are her Conservative MPs. The fact she can't do it alone is entirely a Conservative problem

    Labour are in opposition. Their constitutional duty is to oppose. They have set out six test that this deal does not meet. They are under no obligation moral or otherwise to back it.

    If May wants Labour votes or indeed non Conservative votes she should try to offer them something. Instead she is saying this is the best deal, do what you are told.


    What utter irresponsible drivel. The six tests Labour had were designed to be failed. Because they care more about power than the wellbeing of the country. They have a moral obligation to vote in a way that most benefits their constituents. They have abandoned that because an economic collapse is beneficial for their chances of forming a government. It is reprehensible.
    Take a breather Theo. This is a marathon, not a sprint. And for people like us - who have zero say - it is important not to take events too personally and politicians too seriously.

    You may believe that voting one way is in the best interests of the country, others simply don't agree with you. There is indeed a lot at stake, but that's ok. Calling people names like "the worst type of human being" and using language like "reprehensible" really doesn't help.

    You would be better served in trying to understand that if Labour are to take part in a Brexit plan, what do they need to feel comfortable doing it. So far this deal offers nothing to a Labour voter, most of whom are Remainers.
  • Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
    May knew what our 6 tests were. She chose not to pursue a deal that meets them.
    You mean remain then, which to be honest is looking more likely by the hour
    If, under a Labour government, it is not possible to reach a deal that meets our tests, then there would be a second referendum in which the government backs Remain. I think.
    I think is a sensible caveat
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    One part of me is quite enjoying this. Mrs May is trying to force BINO, and the delicious irony is that we're relying on Labour party to foil her cunning plan. Go, Jezza, go!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746

    The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.

    *Sigh!*

    For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.

    The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.

    So what is the point of leaving?
    Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.
    The EEA treaty allows for that, but not the reverse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,152
    edited November 2018
    Lennon said:

    Sky reporting Gove has a genuine family problem today

    Shades of John Major's Dentist Appointment? Apologies to Gove if it is genuine and serious obviously, but it is somewhat convenient.
    Sky seem to be convinced that it is genuine. They stated they know what it is about, but won't be revealing what it about it as it is a private personal matter.

    I think if they thought it was horseshit, I think they would be mocking his "dog eat my homework" excuse.
This discussion has been closed.