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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Blimey. Stephen Lloyd a real hero putting country before party.

    https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/1062999800877080577
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
    Hmmm. Not sure what I've done today. The worst thing I've done, I think was to have three cups of tea and spend too much time dicking about on the net.
    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.
    I totally see where you're coming from but rising to the trolls is pointless. This is their day - let them enjoy it for now - fortunately politics is not a zero sum game.
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    Given Peston's record, that means Graham Brady's postbag is already overflowing.
    I think you're missing a "not"
    No, that bit's right. The bit Peston's wrong about is 'surprising people'. The mood is clearly that a fatally damaged leader is worse than a change of leader (though whether that's right is a whole different question).
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    Has anybody asked Brenda whats she thinks of all of this?

    Why bother? She is not allowed to say.
    This Brenda: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3PKE8uTSp8

    (maybe you knew that)
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    #Fairpeoplesvote.

    My preferred wording for the people’s vote would be

    Do you want
    A remain
    B withdrawal agreement
    C no deal and £825 for every registered elector.

    Personally I would remain and I rank the withdrawal agreement as not worth the 39 billion. But to make it fair you may as well give a share of the 39 billion to every registered voter.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    rpjs said:

    Interesting thought experiment, though. If Gove gets in and replaces May's deal with his chum Boles's "Norway for Now"...
    Norway === EEA === FOM, plus it doesn't solve the Irish border. It'd need to be Norway + CU in which case what's the point of leaving?
    Well, there is no point in leaving, other than to say "we've done what the people voted for" - which was May's line repeated ad tediosum this morning.

    But Norway + CU, a la Boles, nominally passes Labour's six tests and could therefore potentially command a majority in the HoC. Nothing else can.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited November 2018
    I've been telling you for yonks:

    a) the Tories WILL NOT fight another election with her as leader

    b) that election is now looming out of the fog

    c) one Big Beast with hat in the ring provokes all to do so

    d) as soon as the letters reach critical mass, the party is looking at her replacement not her backing.

    With hindsight, the MPs should have quietly taken her out the back as soon as she lost the majority.
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    TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Pulpstar said:

    Blimey. Stephen Lloyd a real hero putting country before party.

    https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/1062999800877080577

    An MP actually caring about the welfare of the country and his constituents. What an unusual thing.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2018
    Taking inspiration from Florida election officials?
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    The DUP seem to me to be the ultimate pragmatists. Will they really fancy JC. I think they might even prefer Old Nick
    I don’t think would actively support him but they could do the damage without.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited November 2018

    Off-topic:

    I've just watched 'London has Fallen'. It is a truly dire film, and sadly not to the level of making it watchable.

    At the end, however, there is an interesting moment: the new British PM is Prime Minister Clarkson.

    And I've realised that's the answer! Jeremy Clarkson for PM, and JC can face JC over the dispatch box ...

    I loved London has fallen. It was so imbecilic as to make it enjoyable. I particularly liked the ambush at St Paul’s. As if half of the armed police force could be replaced with mercenaries and no one would notice!
    I reckon it's because in here the US we literally have something over 17,000 separate police forces and law enforcement agencies, so it's sort of plausible as a plot line to have a plod protecting something not question some bunch of new guys turning up that they don't know claiming to be from a TLA they've never heard of.
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    They really don't do themselves any favours....Just adds weight to having an elected upper chamber, as this lot just take the piss.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    DavidL said:

    I think we know of about 3 letters which have been made public. One might presume that the likes of Boris and Davis will have written them as well. It does seem extraordinary that we have not had an announcement that we have 48+. Its not a very high number. The fact that even now it seems to be a struggle suggests to me that May just might be a lot safer than she currently looks (not hard, someone hanging on with one hand to a burning window 10 stories up looks to be in a pretty good position by comparison at the moment).

    Brady has said that if he ever gets to 48 letters he would want to check with each of them that they still meant it. Suppose there were twenty letters submitted before this week. Twenty phone calls at five minutes per phone call would be more than an hour and a half. And it can be strung out a lot longer than that if he doesn't have the relevant phone numbers to hand or people don't answer their phones, etc.

    The due diligence on 48 letters could take a while unless all 48 of them corner him in his office as a phalanx.
    He's running the risk of 48 of them going public making him look less than trustworthy. Admittedly we are somewhat short of that at the moment.
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    It makes sense, given Lord Lester nor the Lords were allowed to cross examine the accuser.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Somebody mentioned to me at a meeting today that there was one polling out that showed that 70% of people believed the leave campaign had lied. Anyone have any details?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    So redo the investigation but fairly this time?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Graham Brady is a naughty little prick tease.

    Change my mind.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Well that helps Corbyn's case for their abolition.....
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    OllyT said:

    Somebody mentioned to me at a meeting today that there was one polling out that showed that 70% of people believed the leave campaign had lied. Anyone have any details?

    YouGov for a People's Vote
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    So, what's today's arithmetic at now? I make it 47.999 + 5 = 47.999
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited November 2018
    Andrew said:

    So, what's today's arithmetic at now? I make it 47.999 + 5 = 47.999

    The number is whatever it is, minus 1922.

    I's always wondered about the name of that Committee.....
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    It makes sense, given Lord Lester nor the Lords were allowed to cross examine the accuser.
    it's not a courtroom
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    Sajid Javid is being very very quiet.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Theo said:

    rpjs said:

    houndtang said:

    In its pointlessness and potential for lasting bitterness this is reminiscent of the Irish Civil War with May in the role of Collins and JRM as De Valera

    Yes, that's why I commented that if May gets through a VONC she should refrain from any motor tours of the byways of deepest Somerset.
    May is the only one actually putting forward a workable plan and caring what happens to the country. The moral degenerates in the ERG and Labour just don't give a damn what happens to people. I have never known people so callous.
    Let's start with Iain Duncan Smith and Esther McVey.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Anyone get the feeling Brady doesn't want to get to 48 :) ?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Andrew said:

    So, what's today's arithmetic at now? I make it 47.999 + 5 = 47.999

    The number is whatever it is, minus 1922......

    I's always wondered about the name of that Committee.....
    Boring, I'm afraid. It was first convened after the 1922 general election, hence the name.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,038

    It makes sense, given Lord Lester nor the Lords were allowed to cross examine the accuser.
    Was the correct process followed ? Is there a process?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited November 2018

    It makes sense, given Lord Lester nor the Lords were allowed to cross examine the accuser.
    Was it conducted under procedures the Lords had previously agreed were adequate? If the answer is yes, then their decision stinks to high heaven.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    The DUP seem to me to be the ultimate pragmatists. Will they really fancy JC. I think they might even prefer Old Nick
    I don’t think would actively support him but they could do the damage without.
    Lining up behind a Papist!!!!!!! Ian Paisley would rise from the grave in condemnation.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Pulpstar said:

    Blimey. Stephen Lloyd a real hero putting country before party.

    https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/1062999800877080577

    I wouldn't put it in quite those terms. But when he makes a pledge, he keeps it.
    a) Voted against the Government on tuition fees
    b) Resigned from Government over a road not getting dualled in his constituency
    c) Won his seat back in a heavily leave area by pledging not to vote to obstruct Brexit, even though he thinks it's as much a misadventure as most Lib Dems.

    If only the parliamentary party as a whole had a fraction of his steel in coalition - there would be a lot more Lib Dem MPs left.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone get the feeling Brady doesn't want to get to 48 :) ?

    I would have thought these days with WhatsApp etc, that Tory MPs must have a good idea how many letters have been sent in.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    Pulpstar said:

    Blimey. Stephen Lloyd a real hero putting country before party.

    https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/1062999800877080577

    Maybe you should rejoin the LDs?
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Has anybody asked Brenda whats she thinks of all of this?

    They're probably looking for her and haven't thought to look under the bed.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Andrew said:

    So, what's today's arithmetic at now? I make it 47.999 + 5 = 47.999

    The number is whatever it is, minus 1922......

    I's always wondered about the name of that Committee.....
    Boring, I'm afraid. It was first convened after the 1922 general election, hence the name.
    (I know. Oh and I was told by a former MP that the 1922 was just a smokescreen. The real power is in Westminster's Masonic lodges....)
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone get the feeling Brady doesn't want to get to 48 :) ?

    Maybe he shreds them as he receives them? Or the drawer he puts them in has a hole in the back and some drop out and he wonders why he is a 37 letters despite everyone in the party having submitted one :D:D
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    I guess she needs to remind everyone that nothing has changed?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    From 1922 to 1700? I guess at least JRM will be pleased with the Tory party's attempt to re-enact Time's Arrow.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    The DUP seem to me to be the ultimate pragmatists. Will they really fancy JC. I think they might even prefer Old Nick
    I don’t think would actively support him but they could do the damage without.
    Lining up behind a Papist!!!!!!! Ian Paisley would rise from the grave in condemnation.
    never! Never!! NEVER!!!
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    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    She has lost the DUP on the Brexit deal. That doesn't mean the Tories have lost them overall - though they would if they were able to push the current deal through.
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    Mordaunt has gone- somebody’s cleaned out betfair
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    rpjs said:

    Interesting thought experiment, though. If Gove gets in and replaces May's deal with his chum Boles's "Norway for Now"...
    Norway === EEA === FOM, plus it doesn't solve the Irish border. It'd need to be Norway + CU in which case what's the point of leaving?

    Farage and Nuttal have to fnd other paid employment?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Polruan said:

    I guess she needs to remind everyone that nothing has changed?
    Brexit *means* Brexit.
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    May's going to resign.....pretty sure.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    May Resigns

    Patisserie Valerie CEO Paul May has resigned.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Sajid Javid is being very very quiet.

    As a potential front-runner to replace May, he's probably thinking "shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit......."

    And having discussions with the possible temporary leader about supporting his taking over for a couple of years.

    Btw, where is David Davis today?
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    Mordaunt has gone- somebody’s cleaned out betfair

    Just on the rumour I think, last price matched 10.5
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    It makes sense, given Lord Lester nor the Lords were allowed to cross examine the accuser.
    Was the correct process followed ? Is there a process?
    Yes, but as I understand it it was an ad hoc process devised by Lucy Scott-Moncrieff, who is the Standards Commissioner.

    Now I used to work with Lucy. Charming lady but I wouldn't put her in charge of a jumble sale, never mind an inquiry.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    It makes sense, given Lord Lester nor the Lords were allowed to cross examine the accuser.
    it's not a courtroom
    Correct. His pal David Pannick QC has created a right to cross examine that does not exist. How many people in a disciplinary hearing at work are entitled to cross examine their accusers? It never happens and dismissals are held to be fair notwithstanding that all the time.
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    Telegraph has this: Michael Gove will only accept the job of Brexit Secretary if he is given the chance to renegotiate the terms of Theresa May's deal with Brussels and the November EU summit is scrapped, The Daily Telegraph has learned.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/michael-gove-offered-brexit-secretary-job/
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    She has lost the DUP on the Brexit deal. That doesn't mean the Tories have lost them overall - though they would if they were able to push the current deal through.
    I think they will start to assert themselves by abstaining on votes to highlight their value
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited November 2018
    .
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    May Resigns

    Patisserie Valerie CEO Paul May has resigned.

    hours late....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    If May's resigning she should say "I've done my best, but leading the Tories is like herding cats. Best of luck to whoever takes the job on".
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone get the feeling Brady doesn't want to get to 48 :) ?

    Maybe he shreds them as he receives them? Or the drawer he puts them in has a hole in the back and some drop out and he wonders why he is a 37 letters despite everyone in the party having submitted one :D:D
    Or he locked the drawer and couldn't remember where he put the key.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2018
    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    That's what I find implausible. If she didn't let them do their jobs, then they should have stepped down.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Sajid Javid is being very very quiet.

    As a potential front-runner to replace May, he's probably thinking "shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit......."

    And having discussions with the possible temporary leader about supporting his taking over for a couple of years.

    Btw, where is David Davis today?
    Probably nipped over to Berlin to get the deal sorted.

    😉
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a uncharacteristically reckless move for her.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Lol, "A TOTAL WITCH HUNT LIKE NO OTHER IN AMERICAN HISTORY!" Even Trump's not so old he wouldn't have had to read The Crucible in high school.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
    Quite.

    And she will now pay the price.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,038
    Pulpstar said:

    If May's resigning she should say "I've done my best, but leading the Tories is like herding cats. Best of luck to whoever takes the job on".

    Even better: in the game Eve Online, players can form massive corporations. It has been known for a player to wheedle his way into the corporation, then instantly dissolve it.

    May should do the same for the Conservative Party ...
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    The DUP seem to me to be the ultimate pragmatists. Will they really fancy JC. I think they might even prefer Old Nick
    I don’t think would actively support him but they could do the damage without.
    I think they would realise the consequence of inaction
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2018
    May really is crap.

    Sky just revealing that in the draft the UK will have to pay to access the EU wide security info, which the UK provide the vast bulk of information for....

    Remember how she tried to use this point as leverage and hasn't even managed to get a fair deal on this. The EU should be paying us.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    I don't think she can bring on a VONC unilaterally. All she can do is resign as leader but she would be barred from standing for re-election.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    Must be possible that she knows the no confidence vote is being called, and she's making a statement explaining why she is contesting it? She's really no quitter.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873

    May Resigns

    Patisserie Valerie CEO Paul May has resigned.

    hours late....
    oh bugger
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    rpjs said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    I don't think she can bring on a VONC unilaterally. All she can do is resign as leader but she would be barred from standing for re-election.
    No, she can't, but she can say BRING IT ON BITCHES and encourage her party to make it happen.

    But that's just not May.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    rpjs said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    I don't think she can bring on a VONC unilaterally. All she can do is resign as leader but she would be barred from standing for re-election.
    She could get her supporters to send in the letters I suppose.

    Of course that is only guaranteed to work if she has at least 48 supporters...
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    May really is crap.

    Sky just revealing that in the draft the UK will have to pay to access the EU wide security info, which the UK provide the vast bulk of information for....

    Remember how she tried to use this point as leverage and hasn't even managed to get a fair deal on this. The EU should be paying us.

    we contribute to the cost at the moment??
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    Perhaps Mrs May is feeling left out, and is holding the Press Conference to announce that she too has written to Graham Brady.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.

    Davis was reliably and predictably wrong on every single statement he ever made about Brexit.

    Keeping him out of the loop would have been patriotic
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2018
    Interesting that during Mrs May's grueling interrogation she said Parliament had voted for the referendum by 6 to 1. 544 to 53 in favour. So there are more than Farage and Cameron responsible.

    And who were the heroic 1 in 6 who didn't?
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited November 2018

    rpjs said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    I don't think she can bring on a VONC unilaterally. All she can do is resign as leader but she would be barred from standing for re-election.
    She could get her supporters to send in the letters I suppose.

    Of course that is only guaranteed to work if she has at least 48 supporters...
    I suppose she could order the payroll vote to!
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    I don't think she can bring on a VONC unilaterally. All she can do is resign as leader but she would be barred from standing for re-election.
    She could get her supporters to send in the letters I suppose.

    Of course that is only guaranteed to work if she has at least 48 supporters...
    I suppose she order the payroll vote to!
    Even that's shrinking rapidly at the moment!
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    tpfkar said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    Must be possible that she knows the no confidence vote is being called, and she's making a statement explaining why she is contesting it? She's really no quitter.
    I’d assume that out of courtesy the 22 chairman advises the leader before announcing the challenge, and that if she wants to respond by resigning she gets to do that. But possibly she will be acknowledging the contest and setting out her stall, as resigning seems very unlikely based on behaviour to date.

    Third option is she’s having a press conference for questions on the deal because that is what she planned yesterday before it was stopped by complaints in the house, and as we know she doesn’t adapt to events very quickly.
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    TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.

    Give it a rest. I am appalled by this situation. The sheer political incompetence of May is breathtaking to me. She has got herself into a mess through a tin ear that could feature in a Greek tragedy. The almost theological zeal of the ERG is shocking, stabbing their own for technicalities. It's nasty, nasty stuff.

    Meanwhile Labour watch from the sidelines in astonishment. They need to get ready to take over and clear up the mess. It will be hard and unrewarding to unpick this shambles.
    They're not watching from the sidelines. They have actively opposed the agreement which is why May was having to rely on the ERG in the first place.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Roger said:

    Interesting that during Mrs May's grueling interrogation she said Parliament had voted for the referendum by 6 to 1. So there are more than Farage and Cameron responsible.

    And who were the heroic 1 in 6?

    Probably very similar to those who voted against triggering A50
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/02/mps-who-voted-against-article-50
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    re header:

    If she survives her gov will never pass anything again.

    No DUP.

    No ERG.

    No Labour, SNP, Plaid, etc (of course).

    On the upside, given the policy overlap, she might have SinnFein.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rpjs said:

    Lol, "A TOTAL WITCH HUNT LIKE NO OTHER IN AMERICAN HISTORY!" Even Trump's not so old he wouldn't have had to read The Crucible in high school.
    Given Trump's base he probably has to play up to the idea they were actual witches though...
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    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    One of the strangest things for me is that May has had two Brexit secretaries and has trusted neither to negotiate Brexit. I have sympathy for the leavers who have said that they have tried to engage. The view was always that she had leavers in key abrexit positions - trade is superceded by Withdrawal agreement, dexeu has been run de facto by Robbins and May - why the subterfuge? If she had said it was of such importance that she would negotiate herself then that would have been fine
    Yet both Davis and Raab happily accepted this allegedly neutered rôle with nary a comment.
    Davis appeared to be working on a deal that met the red lines whilst she was preparing something behind his back. I don’t support leave but these are not the actions of someone trustworthy.
    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.
    Ah yes this DEFINITELY REAL MAGIC UNICORN PLAN
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171

    It's her clumsy attempt at triangulation that damns her.

    – My Deal or No Deal or No Brexit.

    She threatens Project Fear to opponents on both sides of her deal.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    My thinking in recent weeks has been that only Davis could sort out this always-impending clusterfuck within the timeframe of 29th March, by resurrecting the discussions he was having in a concertinad-timeframe. And with Olly Robbins given the boot.

    It is still where I think we should be. He seemed to have built a rapport that was getting somewhere. That could yet pull folks together. I can't see anything else that might.

    The EU will not reopen negotiations.

    Not surprising given the attitude of the Brexiteers
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    Meanwhile, in other news. the BBC is reporting that the 'Search (is) on in Boston and Skegness for £76m lottery ticket holder.'
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Honestly I can't imagine what else she could conceivably be calling a presser for today unless it's to announce the jig is up.

    I suppose she could be pre-announcing a Bring It On for a VONC, but that would be a reckless move even for her.

    I don't think she can bring on a VONC unilaterally. All she can do is resign as leader but she would be barred from standing for re-election.
    She could get her supporters to send in the letters I suppose.

    Of course that is only guaranteed to work if she has at least 48 supporters...
    I suppose she order the payroll vote to!
    Even that's shrinking rapidly at the moment!
    Like I said earlier, does she even have enough MPs left now to fully staff it?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The DUP have said they won't support the deal. They haven't (yet) announced they're withdrawing May's confidence and supply.

    They won't do that because the moment they do Labour will move a motion of no confidence under the FTPA and the government will fall.

    That's a nuclear option the DUP are keeping in their back pocket. They're not ready to do that, yet. But May's playing with fucking hellfire.
This discussion has been closed.